By Danny Leroux | The Athletic, 2026-01-28 11:00:02
The Athletic 网站对 2026年NBA交易截止日 进行了实时报道。
尽管从现在到明年六月，许多情况都可能且必将发生变化，但我们目前掌握的信息足以对2026年NBA休赛期有扎实的了解。
以下是2026-27赛季预期的薪资状况：
2026-27赛季NBA薪资线
| 薪资线 | 预测金额 |
|---|---|
| 薪金帽 | 1.66亿美元 |
| 奢侈税线 | 2.017亿美元 |
| 第一土豪线 | 2.107亿美元 |
| 第二土豪线 | 2.237亿美元 |
预测的1.66亿美元薪金帽意味着，一份25%的顶薪合同起薪将为4150万美元，30%的顶薪合同起薪为4980万美元，而35%的顶薪合同起薪则为5810万美元。根据这一预测，拥有薪金空间的球队还将能使用940万美元的空间中产特例；而总薪资在薪金帽之上的球队，根据多种因素，则可能拥有1510万美元的全额中产特例，或是数额更小的610万美元的迷你中产特例。
总而言之，各队最有可能的消费能力情况如下：
- 拥有薪金空间： 公牛队（最高6800万美元）、奇才队（5000万美元）、快船队（最高5000万美元）、爵士队（4500万美元）、湖人队（3800万至4700万美元）、篮网队（3600万至4400万美元）、老鹰队（2300万至2800万美元）
- 拥有1510万美元全额中产特例： 黄蜂队、开拓者队、马刺队、雄鹿队
- 拥有610万美元迷你中产特例（但不大可能获得全额中产）： 活塞队、鹈鹕队、凯尔特人队、勇士队、太阳队、76人队、森林狼队、火箭队、热火队、灰熊队、步行者队、掘金队、国王队
- 拥有鸟权和底薪特例，但低于第二土豪线： 独行侠队
- 超过第二土豪线： 骑士队、尼克斯队、雷霆队、魔术队
亚特兰大老鹰队
在将特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 交易至华盛顿奇才队，换来CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 和科里·基斯珀特 (Corey Kispert) 后，我现在预测老鹰队将成为一支拥有薪金空间的球队。根据他们选秀权的情况，他们将掌握2300万至2800万美元的空间以及940万美元的空间中产特例。值得注意的是，他们拥有薪金空间的前提是克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porziņģis) 离队；与他续约大概率会使球队退出薪金空间的争夺，但会解锁全额中产特例。
波士顿凯尔特人队
凯尔特人队在2026-27赛季的薪资实际上低于预测的奢侈税线，但这并未计入即将成为自由球员的安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons) 的合同。因此，管理层可能需要在续约西蒙斯和使用全额中产特例引进新援之间做出选择。当然，布拉德·史蒂文斯 (Brad Stevens) 也很有可能在未来这段时间内通过交易西蒙斯等方式，改变球队在2026年的消费能力。他们目前的薪资总额大约比奢侈税线高出1200万美元，因此若能为本赛季减免这笔开销，将为球队带来巨大的财务收益。
布鲁克林篮网队
除非发生重大变动，否则篮网队肯定会以一支拥有薪金空间的球队身份进行运作。他们自己的首轮选秀权以及对扎伊尔·史密斯 (Ziaire Smith) 和戴龙·夏普 (Day’Ron Sharpe) 的球队选项决定，将最终确定他们的薪金空间是接近3600万美元还是4400万美元。
夏洛特黄蜂队
他们距离拥有薪金空间仅一步之遥，但目前来看，保持在薪金帽之上是更好的选择，因为这能让黄蜂队使用全额中产特例和550万美元的双年特例。这比大约1000万美元的薪金空间外加940万美元的空间中产特例要更为实用。我更倾向于选择保持在薪金帽之上的路径，部分原因在于1500万美元是一个不错的起薪报价，并且这也能让他们在需要时续约像科林·塞克斯顿 (Collin Sexton) 这样的自由球员。话虽如此，由于这两条路径的收益如此接近，这给了他们管理层一个强烈的动机：要么通过甩掉一些薪水来获得更多的薪金空间，要么在本次交易截止日前吃下长期合同（想必会为此付出溢价），以填补当前薪资总额与奢侈税线之间的差距。
芝加哥公牛队
他们最高可支配高达6800万美元的薪金空间，令人印象深刻，但其中一部分可能会用于续约自家的自由球员，可能包括科比·怀特 (Coby White)、尼古拉·武切维奇 (Nikola Vučević) 和/或阿约·多孙穆 (Ayo Dosunmu)。如果怀特续约，他较低的薪金占位将非常有价值，这或许能让芝加哥的夏天变得手笔更大。
克利夫兰骑士队
即使骑士队拒绝执行朗佐·鲍尔 (Lonzo Ball) 价值1000万美元的球队选项，他们的薪资总额仍比预测的第二土豪线高出约1000万美元。除非发生重大变化，他们将是2026-27赛季联盟薪资最高的球队之一，即便没有鲍尔，预计奢侈税账单也将高达1亿美元。如果丹·吉尔伯特 (Dan Gilbert) 不愿意为现有阵容支付如此高昂的费用，他们可以尝试交易一些非核心球员，比如德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter) 和/或马克斯·斯特鲁斯 (Max Strus)，但这过程可能会很痛苦。
达拉斯独行侠队
值得注意的是，如果独行侠队的首轮选秀顺位足够高，带来一份高额的新秀合同，他们的薪资总额可能会接近第二土豪线。这一点，再加上他们目前的战绩排名，应该足以成为其管理层考虑在交易截止日前甩掉长期合同的动力。
丹佛掘金队
用小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 换来卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cameron Johnson) 为掘金队在本赛季和下赛季总共节省了约3500万美元的薪水，但即便他们拒绝执行约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯 (Jonas Valančiūnas) 价值1000万美元的球队选项，他们的薪资总额仍然接近第一土豪线，而这甚至还没算上续约受限制自由球员佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 的开销。对其管理层而言，这又将是需要做出艰难抉择的一年，特别是如果老板在拥有处于巅峰期的尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić) 的情况下，仍然对花钱感到不安的话。
底特律活塞队
作为本赛季最成功的球队之一，活塞队很可能会保持在薪金帽之上但低于奢侈税线，因为续约杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 或杰登·艾维 (Jaden Ivey) 中的任何一人都会让他们无缘薪金空间争夺。即便如此，如果他们愿意，应该有能力同时留下这两名球员，甚至可能同时留下他们和托拜厄斯·哈里斯 (Tobias Harris)，具体取决于他们各自的身价。
另一个关键问题是，在续约杜伦之外的球员和使用全额中产特例引进新援之间，他们将如何权衡。我的直觉是，他们会更倾向于保留现有的人才，除非有出人意料的球员愿意降薪加盟活塞。
巴迪·希尔德 (Buddy Hield) 正对抗卡梅伦·约翰逊和掘金队的防守。（图片来源：Bob Kupbens / Imagn Images）
金州勇士队
勇士队很可能要缴纳奢侈税，但具体超额多少取决于他们是否执行乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 价值2430万美元的球队选项，以及巴迪·希尔德300万美元的部分保障合同（或970万美元的全额薪水）。如果这两人都留队或被薪水相近的球员替代，那么在斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 和受伤的吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 合同的最后一个赛季里，勇士队的薪资总额可能会逼近第二土aho线。
另一个关键变数是德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green)，他必须在价值2770万美元的球员选项和成为完全自由球员之间做出选择。如果他选择跳出合同，最终的续约结果可能会改变球队的薪资状况。
休斯顿火箭队
火箭队的处境很复杂，因为弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 在遭遇前十字韧带撕裂后，拥有一个价值2500万美元的球员选项，但他可能更想要一份长期合同。这样一份合同的年薪会是多少呢？如果范弗利特的薪水与其球员选项金额持平或相近，火箭队可以在续约他的同时，以大约全额中产特例的价格续签受限制自由球员塔里·伊森 (Tari Eason)，并避免缴纳奢侈税。或者，他们也可以通过匹配报价合同或自己提供一份新合同来给他更高的薪水，但需要支付一笔小数额的奢侈税。
因此，对于火箭队总经理拉斐尔·斯通 (Rafael Stone) 来说，决策可能是在伊森和全额中产特例之间进行选择，而这或许更多地取决于伊森收到的报价，而非火箭队自身的偏好。
印第安纳步行者队
又一支薪资出人意料地高昂的球队。如果受限制自由球员本尼迪克特·马图林 (Bennedict Mathurin) 在夏天得到一份合理的薪水，这位卫冕东部冠军很可能需要缴纳奢侈税。步行者队有很多方法可以在续约他的同时，通过送走像奥比·托平 (Obi Toppin) 或T.J.·麦康奈尔 (T.J. McConnell) 这样的球员来规避奢侈税，但这也让我们得以一窥篮球运营总裁凯文·普里查德 (Kevin Pritchard) 的工作将会有多棘手。
另一个复杂因素是：普里查德明年夏天理论上可以交易掉的所有球员，他们的合同都将延续到2026-27赛季之后。因此，潜在的交易伙伴需要对托平、麦康奈尔或以赛亚·杰克逊 (Isaiah Jackson) 这样的球员做出更严肃的承诺，而不仅仅是接手一个赛季。
洛杉矶快船队
快船队是2026年休赛期最具变数的球队，因为科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 和伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 是他们下赛季唯一有确定合同在身的关键球员。他们可以续约詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)（他拥有一个罕见的部分保障球员选项），然后选择保持在薪金帽之上或腾出少量薪金空间；也可以反其道而行之，创造出5000万美元的薪金空间。
现实情况很可能介于这两个极端之间，但即便不考虑快船队周围的其他不确定性，这些可能性也值得探讨。
洛杉矶湖人队
如果奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 如预期那样拒绝执行他1490万美元的球员选项，并且勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 下赛季身披其他球队的战袍，那么湖人队将可能拥有3800万至4700万美元的薪金空间，具体数额取决于他们其他自由球员，如八村塁 (Rui Hachimura)、德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 和马库斯·斯马特 (Marcus Smart) 是否留队。这笔钱足以签下一位合适的球员，与卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 和里夫斯长期搭档，从而产生重大影响。但这样一来，他们可能会成为一支阵容极其头重脚轻且未来薪资高昂的球队。话虽如此，如果能得到合适的人才，这样的建队模式也是值得的，因为里夫斯的新合同很可能会让他们无法将这笔消费能力转移到2027年及以后，尽管这一点尚未百分之百确定。
孟菲斯灰熊队
小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.) 下赛季的薪水将再次上涨至4900万美元，因此，如果没有重大调整，灰熊队的薪资总额将非常接近奢侈税线，情况不容乐观。这个距离太近，以至于无法使用全额中产特例，甚至根据他们两个首轮选秀权的顺位，情况可能还会更紧张。
迈阿密热火队
迈阿密距离奢侈税线大约还有3000万美元的差距，但这并未计入完全自由球员诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 的合同。他可能会引起足够多的兴趣，单凭自己就能获得一份接近该数额的合同，而这还没算上填补阵容其他位置的开销。这意味着，即使老板愿意支付一笔小数额的奢侈税，热火队也不太可能在续约鲍威尔的同时，还使用全额中产特例。
密尔沃基雄鹿队
除了扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 之外，还有太多问题悬而未决，因为雄鹿队在2026年休赛期有多达六份球员选项合同。截至目前，我的直觉是，他们届时在奢侈税线下将有足够的运作空间，能够使用全额中产特例，并且即便该球员群体中有人为了涨薪而选择跳出合同，球队仍能留住其中一部分人，尽管过程可能会有些棘手。
明尼苏达森林狼队
森林狼队在第二土豪线以下应该会有更多的喘息空间，但他们仍可能是一支需要缴纳奢侈税的球队，尽管税额会比近几个赛季要好管理得多。根据他们续约的自由球员（如迈克·康利 (Mike Conley)、杰伦·克拉克 (Jaylen Clark) 和博恩斯·海兰德 (Bones Hyland)），森林狼队可能会成为少数几支能实际使用迷你中产特例的球队之一。这个数额比底薪高出不少，或许能吸引到一些球员，但使用该特例会使明尼苏达受到第二土豪线的硬工资帽限制。
新奥尔良鹈鹕队
假设管理层续约蔡恩·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson) 并拒绝执行凯文·卢尼 (Kevon Looney) 价值800万美元的球队选项，那么鹈鹕队的薪资总额应该会比奢侈税线低约1000万美元，具体取决于何塞·阿尔瓦拉多 (Jose Alvarado) 是否执行他450万美元的球员选项。他们或许能够使用全额中产特例，但这需要在此期间进行额外的操作。
米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 在对阵太阳队的比赛中轻松扣篮得分。（图片来源：Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images）
纽约尼克斯队
随着米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 的续约合同生效，他的薪水将上涨至3350万美元，这使得尼克斯队的薪资总额非常接近第二土豪线。只要用任何一份合理的薪水续约米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson)，他们就会超过这条线；预计他们在2026-27赛季将成为一支超过第二土豪线的球队。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
作为卫冕冠军，雷霆队将在2026-27赛季缴纳奢侈税，但他们是否会触发第二土豪线，很大程度上将取决于以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein)。他们能以低于2850万美元球队选项的价格留下他吗？如果可以，他们或许能再多一个赛季避免触发第二土豪线。
另一方面，如果他们拒绝执行选项且哈尔滕施泰因离队，雷霆队将只能用迷你中产特例来替代他。另一个需要考虑的细节是，雷霆队还拥有吕冈茨·多尔特 (Lugentz Dort) 的球队选项，但1770万美元的薪水低于他在公开市场上能拿到的价格。拒绝执行该选项大概率是为了用一份更长的合同来续约他，通过这种方式，他们期望在长期内支付给他的薪水，会比他在2027年成为完全自由球员时所能获得的市场价要低。
奥兰多魔术队
魔术队看起来很像一支将要触发第二土豪线的球队，因为保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 的续约合同将生效，他的薪水预计将飙升至4130万美元。他们或许可以通过为乔纳森·艾萨克 (Jonathan Isaac)（合同为部分保障）找到下家来避免这一情况，具体取决于他们如何填充阵容的其余部分。
费城76人队
如果76人队以超过约1500万美元的价格续约完全自由球员昆廷·格莱姆斯 (Quentin Grimes)，他们将需要缴纳奢侈税，但这笔税款可能相当小。不幸的是，对于76人队的管理层来说，想要同时续约格莱姆斯并使用全额中产特例，操作空间似乎过于紧张。
菲尼克斯太阳队
做好准备：太阳队在2026-27赛季有可能不缴纳奢侈税，这可能是他们连续第二个赛季如此！话虽如此，马克·威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams) 和科林·吉莱斯皮 (Collin Gillespie) 在经历强势赛季后，都有望在自由市场上获得大幅加薪，这可能会将太阳队推回奢侈税线之上。不过，他们也可以通过其他操作来规避，比如为罗伊斯·奥尼尔 (Royce O’Neale) 找到下家。感觉太阳队会把他们拥有的任何灵活性用于续约球员，而非引援。特别是考虑到，威廉姆斯的离开可能只会解锁全额中产特例，而吉莱斯皮的离开只会解锁迷你中产特例，这两个特例都不足以签下一名合适的替代者。
波特兰开拓者队
在续约杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 的同时引进了朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)，这使得开拓者队无法在2026年使用薪金空间，但他们在奢侈税线下应该有足够的运作空间来使用全额中产特例，并且如果愿意，还可以续约罗伯特·威廉姆斯 (Robert Williams) 和布雷克·韦斯利 (Blake Wesley)。
尽管如此，斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 很可能将在2027年通过提前续约或受限制自由球员的身份开始一份新合同，因此管理层可能不愿意再为一份多年期的中产合同买单，除非签约对象是一位真正令人兴奋的天才球员。
萨克拉门托国王队
值得注意的是，如果国王队以2570万美元的全额薪水留住德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan)（合同为部分保障），他们的薪资总额将非常接近奢侈税线。这意味着，目前的选择很可能是在德罗赞和全额中产特例之间二选一，这也意味着国王队在急需的阵容升级方面没有太多回旋余地。
圣安东尼奥马刺队
虽然通过清理一些额外薪水，存在一条通往薪金空间的潜在路径，但更可能的情况是马刺队会选择保持在薪金帽之上，续约部分自家自由球员，如哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) 和索汉，然后如果还有足够的消费能力，再使用全额中产特例。考虑到他们本赛季至今的出色表现，在维克托·文班亚马的巨额新合同生效前的最后一年里，能处于这样的位置是令人兴奋的。
多伦多猛龙队
猛龙队的阵容似乎异常稳定，他们所有关键球员在2026-27赛季要么有合同在身，要么通过球队选项处于球队控制之下。这意味着猛龙队很可能会保持现有阵容，因为他们在奢侈税线下没有足够的运作空间来使用全额中产特例。
犹他爵士队
算上沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler) 1460万美元的薪金占位以及对他们乐透签的预估，爵士队预计将拥有约4500万美元的薪金空间。这足以向一名受限制自由球员开出一份25%的顶薪报价合同，但若想开出30%的顶薪合同，则需要进行一些额外的成本削减，比如送走泰勒·亨德里克斯 (Taylor Hendricks)、科迪·威廉姆斯 (Cody Williams) 或其他近期首轮秀的组合。对于篮球运营总裁奥斯汀·安吉 (Austin Ainge) 来说，好消息是，如果有一名球员有兴趣与爵士队签订那样的合同，他很可能有灵活性去实现它，而无需在获得球员承诺之前就预先操作。
华盛顿奇才队
如果最近交易来的杨执行他的球员选项，或选择跳出合同并以相近的薪水续约，奇才队今年夏天将拥有5000万美元的薪金空间。这远低于交易前的8600万美元，但仍然足以签下一名自由球员并提供一份30%的顶薪合同。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA cap space, spending power projections for the 2026 offseason
NBA cap space, spending power projections for the 2026 offseason
The Athletic has live coverage of the 2026 NBA trade deadline.
While a lot can, and will, change between now and June, we know enough at this point for a solid understanding of the 2026 NBA offseason.
Here’s what the financial landscape is expected to look like in 2026-27:
NBA in 2026-27
| Threshold | Projection |
|---|---|
| Salary Cap | $166M |
| Luxury Tax | $201.7M |
| First Apron | $210.7M |
| Second Apron | $223.7M |
The projected $166 million salary cap means a 25 percent max contract would start at $41.5 million, a 30 percent max at $49.8 million and a 35 percent max at $58.1 million. With that projection, teams with cap space would also have access to a $9.4 million room exception, while franchises functioning over the salary cap may have access to a $15.1 million nontaxpayer midlevel exception or the smaller $6.1 million taxpayer MLE, depending on a variety of factors.
In summary, here is how things look in terms of most likely spending power:
- Cap space: Bulls (up to $68 million), Wizards ($50 million), Clippers (up to $50 million), Jazz ($45 million), Lakers ($38 million to $47 million), Nets ($36 million to $44 million), Hawks ($23 million to $28 million)
- Full $15.1 million nontaxpayer MLE: Hornets, Trail Blazers, Spurs, Bucks
- $6.1 million taxpayer MLE but unlikely full nontaxpayer MLE: Pistons, Pelicans, Celtics, Warriors, Suns, 76ers, Timberwolves, Rockets, Heat, Grizzlies, Pacers, Nuggets, Kings
- Bird rights and minimums but not second apron: Mavericks
- Second apron: Cavaliers, Knicks, Thunder, Magic
Atlanta Hawks
After trading Trae Young to the Washington Wizards for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert, I now project the Hawks to be a cap space team, wielding $23 million to $28 million in space plus the $9.4 million room exception, depending on their draft picks. It is important to note that their cap space possibilities require Kristaps Porziņģis to leave; re-signing him presumably takes them out of the cap-space derby but would open up the nontaxpayer midlevel exception.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are actually under the projected tax for the 2026-27 season, but that includes nothing for pending free agent Anfernee Simons. As such, the front office could be choosing between retaining Simons and using the full nontaxpayer midlevel exception for a new addition. It is also very possible that Brad Stevens changes their 2026 spending power between now and then, potentially by trading Simons. They are currently approximately $12 million above the luxury-tax threshold, so reducing or eliminating that bill for this season would have significant financial benefits for the franchise.
Brooklyn Nets
Barring massive changes, the Nets will definitely function as a cap space team. Their own first-round pick and team option decisions on Ziaire Smith and Day’Ron Sharpe will determine if that is closer to $36 million or $44 million.
Charlotte Hornets
They are close to having cap space, but staying over is the better course as of now because it gives the Hornets access to the nontaxpayer MLE and the $5.5 million biannual exception, which is more useful than roughly $10 million in cap space plus the $9.4 million room exception. I prefer the over-the-cap path in part because $15 million is a nice starting salary to offer, and that allows them to retain free agents like Collin Sexton if desired. That said, those two paths being so similar gives their front office a strong incentive to either shed some salary to use a larger amount of cap space or take on long-term salary at this trade deadline (at a premium, presumably) to fill some of the gap between their current obligations and the tax line.
Chicago Bulls
They could wield up to an impressive $68 million in cap space but could use some of that to re-sign their own free agents, including, potentially, Coby White, Nikola Vučević and/or Ayo Dosunmu. White’s low cap hold could be valuable if he re-signs, should Chicago want to make it an even splashier summer.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are roughly $10 million over the projected second apron, even if they decline a $10 million team option on Lonzo Ball. Barring massive changes, they will be one of the most expensive teams in the league for 2026-27 with a projected $100 million luxury-tax bill even without Ball. If Dan Gilbert is not willing to pay that type of money for this roster, there are some non-core players they could try to move, such as De’Andre Hunter and/or Max Strus, but it would likely be painful.
Dallas Mavericks
Remarkably, the Mavericks could be close to the second apron if their first-round draft pick is strong enough to bring a big price tag. That and their current place in the standings should be more than enough motivation for their front office to consider offloading long-term salary between now and the deadline.
Denver Nuggets
Trading Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson saved the Nuggets about $35 million in salary over this season and next combined, but they are still close to the first apron even if they decline a $10 million team option on Jonas Valančiūnas, and that is even before retaining restricted free agent Peyton Watson. It will be another year of tough decisions for their brass, particularly if ownership is still uncomfortably averse to spending despite having Nikola Jokić in his prime.
Detroit Pistons
One of the season’s biggest success stories will likely stay over the cap but below the tax because retaining either Jalen Duren or Jaden Ivey takes them out of the cap-space derby. Even so, they should have the capacity to retain both if desired, and likely both plus Tobias Harris, depending on their collective price tags.
Another key question will be how they value those non-Duren retentions against using the nontaxpayer MLE to bring in someone else. My instinct is they will prefer the talent they have unless someone surprising wants to take less to join the Pistons.
Buddy Hield works against Cameron Johnson and the Nuggets’ defense. (Bob Kupbens / Imagn Images)
Golden State Warriors
Likely over the tax but how far over depends on their $24.3 million team option on Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield’s $3 million partial guarantee (or $9.7 million full salary). If both are back or replaced by players with similar salaries, the Warriors are likely pushing near the second apron in the final season that Stephen Curry and an injured Jimmy Butler are under contract.
The other key variable is Draymond Green, who has to choose between a $27.7 million player option or unrestricted free agency. If he opts out, that could shift their books depending on the eventual outcome.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have a complicated situation because Fred VanVleet has a $25 million player option coming off a torn ACL, but he likely wants a long-term deal. What kind of per-season salary would that entail? With VanVleet at or near his player option amount, the Rockets could bring him back and re-sign restricted free agent Tari Eason at around the nontaxpayer MLE while avoiding the tax, or they could pay him more via matching an offer sheet or a new contract themselves and pay a small tax bill.
As such, the decision might be Eason vs. nontaxpayer MLE for Rockets general manager Rafael Stone, and that may depend on where the offers end up for Eason more than the Rockets’ own preferences.
Indiana Pacers
Another surprisingly expensive team, the reigning Eastern Conference champions would likely go into the tax if restricted free agent Bennedict Mathurin gets an appropriate salary over the summer. The Pacers have plenty of ways to bring him back and duck the tax by shipping away players like Obi Toppin or T.J. McConnell, but that provides a glimpse of how tricky president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard’s job will be.
One additional complication: All of the theoretical salaries Pritchard could offload next summer go beyond 2026-27, so a potential trade partner needs to make a more serious commitment to someone like Toppin, McConnell or Isaiah Jackson as opposed to just taking on that player for a season.
LA Clippers
The Clippers are the ultimate variance franchise for the 2026 offseason because Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac are their only key players on locked-in contracts next season. They could retain James Harden (who has a rare partially guaranteed player option) and either stay over the cap or open up a small amount of cap space or go hard the other direction and create $50 million in cap space.
The truth likely lies between those two extremes, but they are fun to consider, even ignoring all of the other uncertainty around the Clippers.
Los Angeles Lakers
If Austin Reaves declines his $14.9 million player option as expected and LeBron James is wearing a different uniform next season, the Lakers are likely looking at $38 million to $47 million in cap space, depending on which of their other free agents, such as Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart, stick around. That is enough to make a major impact for the right player to fit next to Luka Dončić and Reaves long-term, but they would likely be an exceedingly top-heavy and eventually expensive team moving forward. That said, the right talent would make a team construction like that worth it since Reaves’ new contract likely takes them out of shifting that spending power to 2027 and beyond, though that is not 100 percent locked in yet.
Memphis Grizzlies
Jaren Jackson Jr. gets another raise next season to $49 million, so the Grizzlies will be unpleasantly close to the luxury tax without major changes, too close to use the full nontaxpayer MLE and maybe even tighter depending on where their two first-round picks end up.
Miami Heat
Miami is about $30 million below the luxury-tax threshold, but that does not include anything for unrestricted free agent Norman Powell, who could generate enough interest to get a salary in that range himself before even filling out the roster. That means it is unlikely the Heat can bring back Powell and use the full nontaxpayer MLE, even if ownership is willing to pay a small tax bill.
Milwaukee Bucks
Beyond Giannis Antetokounmpo, there’s so much left to resolve because the Bucks have six player options for the 2026 offseason. As of now, my instinct is that they will have enough wiggle room under the tax to be able to use the nontaxpayer MLE and still retain some of that group even if they opt out for a raise, though it could get tricky.
Minnesota Timberwolves
There should be more breathing room under the second apron, but the Timberwolves are still likely a luxury-tax team, albeit one with a far more manageable bill than in some recent seasons. Depending on which free agents they retain (such Mike Conley, Jaylen Clark and Bones Hyland), the Timberwolves may be a rare team that could actually use the taxpayer MLE. That is a big enough bump over the minimum to potentially interest someone, but it subjects Minnesota to being hard-capped at the second apron.
New Orleans Pelicans
Assuming the front office retains Zion Williamson and declines the $8 million team option on Kevon Looney, the Pelicans should be about $10 million below the luxury tax, depending on Jose Alvarado’s $4.5 million player option. They might be able to use the full nontaxpayer MLE, but that would require additional moves between now and then.
Mitchell Robinson puts home an easy two points against Phoenix. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
New York Knicks
With Mikal Bridges’ extension kicking in and bumping up his salary to $33.5 million, the Knicks are close enough to the second apron that re-signing Mitchell Robinson to any reasonable salary pushes them over; expect them to be a second-apron team in 2026-27.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The current champions will pay the luxury tax in 2026-27, but their second-apron status will largely depend on Isaiah Hartenstein. Can they get him at a lower salary than their $28.5 million team option? If so, they might be able to stay under for another season.
On the other end, if they decline the option and Hartenstein leaves, the Thunder would only have the taxpayer MLE to replace him. One other wrinkle to consider is that the Thunder also possess a team option on Lugentz Dort, but $17.7 million is less than he would get on the open market. Declining the option would presumably involve a raise on a longer contract, likely to pay him less long-term than they would expect him to get as an unrestricted free agent in 2027.
Orlando Magic
The Magic are looking a lot like a second-apron team, as Paolo Banchero’s extension will kick in and push his salary to a projected $41.3 million. They could potentially duck it by finding a new home for Jonathan Isaac (partially guaranteed), depending on how they fill out the rest of the roster.
Philadelphia 76ers
Philly will be paying the luxury tax if it re-signs unrestricted free agent Quentin Grimes for more than approximately $15 million, but it’s likely a fairly small bill. Unfortunately for the Sixers’ front office, it looks like too tight a squeeze to bring back Grimes and use the nontaxpayer MLE.
Phoenix Suns
Brace yourselves: There is a chance the Suns do not pay the luxury tax in 2026-27, which could be the second season in a row for them! That said, Mark Williams and Collin Gillespie are both in line for significant raises in free agency after strong seasons, and that could push the Suns back over the tax threshold, though they could duck under with a different move, such as finding a new home for Royce O’Neale. It feels like the Suns will use whatever flexibility they have for retentions rather than additions, especially since Williams walking likely only opens up the nontaxpayer MLE and Gillespie the taxpayer MLE, neither of which is enough to secure a suitable replacement.
Portland Trail Blazers
Adding Jrue Holiday while retaining Jerami Grant prevents the Trail Blazers from using cap space in 2026, but they should have plenty of wiggle room under the tax to use the full nontaxpayer MLE plus retain Robert Williams and Blake Wesley if desired.
That said, Scoot Henderson will likely start a new contract via extension or restricted free agency in 2027, so the front office might be reluctant to put a multiyear MLE contract on the books unless it is a really exciting talent.
Sacramento Kings
Remarkably, the Kings are uncomfortably close to the luxury tax if they retain DeMar DeRozan (partially guaranteed) at his full $25.7 million salary. That means the choice as of now is likely DeRozan vs. the nontaxpayer MLE, which means the Kings do not have a ton of latitude for much-needed improvements throughout their roster.
San Antonio Spurs
While there is a potential path to cap space by clearing some additional salary, the more likely scenario is for the Spurs to stay over the cap, retain some of their free agents such as Harrison Barnes and Jeremy Sochan and then use the nontaxpayer MLE if they have enough spending power left. Considering their strong season thus far, that is an exciting place to be in the final year before Victor Wembanyama’s huge new contract kicks in.
Toronto Raptors
It seems like the Raptors’ roster is unusually stable, with all of their key players either under contract or with team control via a team option for the 2026-27 season. That means the Raptors are likely keeping things together, as they do not have enough wiggle room under the tax to use the nontaxpayer MLE.
Utah Jazz
Counting Walker Kessler at his $14.6 million cap hold and a projection for their lottery pick, the Jazz are looking at around $45 million in cap space. That is enough for a 25 percent max offer sheet for a restricted free agent but not a 30 percent max contract without some additional cost-cutting, such as shipping away some combination of Taylor Hendricks, Cody Williams or other recent first-round picks. The good thing for president of basketball operations Austin Ainge is that he likely has the flexibility to make that happen if a player is interested in signing that kind of contract with the Jazz, rather than having to do so preemptively before securing a commitment.
Washington Wizards
If the recently acquired Young picks up his player option or opts out and re-signs at a similar salary, the Wizards would have $50 million in cap space this summer. That is far less than the $86 million they had before the trade but still enough to sign a free agent to a 30 percent max contract.
By Danny Leroux, via The Athletic