[ESPN] 2026年NBA模拟选秀:首轮签中的新面孔

By Jeremy Woo | ESPN, 2026-01-13 20:00:00

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随着大学篮球进入分区联盟赛的白热化阶段,NBA的赛季中期排名也逐渐明朗,现在是更新模拟选秀的好时机。

2026年的选秀乐透抽签还有五个月才举行,但它将为联盟格局带来颠覆性的影响。三位状元签的有力竞争者——达林·彼得森 (Darryn Peterson)、AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa) 和卡姆·布泽尔 (Cam Boozer)——都在大学赛场上展现出惊人的高水平,这激发了各支球队在内部持续构建选秀榜时的激烈讨论。

凯莱布·威尔逊 (Caleb Wilson) 和金斯顿·弗莱明斯 (Kingston Flemings) 已经加入了这三人组,形成了现阶段较为公认的前五顺位人选,但从那之后的顺位预测则要困难得多。在目前的选秀评估进程中,NBA各界对于本届选秀的深度和质量存在着明显的分歧,这种分歧从乐透区中段开始就愈发显现。考虑到NCAA球员可观的姓名、形象和肖像权(NIL)收入,再加上NBA球队普遍认为2027届选秀前景广阔,外界普遍预计,如果前景未稳固在首轮,将有大量新秀选择留在大学以提升自己的选秀行情。这些经济因素可能会让第20至40顺位的选秀池变得相对薄弱,从而为那些希望在未来几个月里通过表现打进首轮的球员留下了巨大的空间。

本次模拟选秀旨在预测,如果NBA球队今天就进行选秀,情况会是怎样。这些预测并非顶级新秀的排名——如需排名,请查阅ESPN百大新秀榜。这些预测是基于与NBA高管和球探的持续交流,以及我本人通过现场观赛和录像分析得出的评估。

选秀顺位是根据ESPN截至1月9日的篮球实力指数(BPI)预测生成的。

更多NBA选秀报道:
2026届百大新秀排名 | 更多

首轮选秀

1. 印第安纳步行者

达林·彼得森,控球后卫/得分后卫,堪萨斯大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 22.6分、4.7篮板、2.1助攻(7场比赛)

彼得森在堪萨斯大学断断续续的健康问题定义了他的赛季,但他在大十二联盟(Big 12)比赛开始时能够出战,并努力克服比赛中的抽筋问题,这让NBA球队希望他的状态正朝着好的方向发展。当他在场时,他的表现堪称惊艳,在190分钟内以63.2%的真实命中率总计得到158分。他在创造投篮机会时表现出非凡的沉稳,即使没有展现出他标志性的爆发力,也依然高效。篮球对他来说似乎轻而易举,他也继续在ESPN百大新秀榜上稳居榜首。

在球队春季拿到他的体检报告之前,很难断言彼得森的健康状况将如何影响选秀,但他作为状元候选人的行情一直很稳固。继续出场比赛应有助于缓解外界持续的担忧。目前前三顺位的共识尚未完全形成,但考虑到彼得森、AJ·迪班萨和卡姆·布泽尔都打出了极高的水平,最终的结果很可能取决于五月乐透抽签后哪支球队拿到状元签。

在泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 于总决赛第七场跟腱撕裂前不久,步行者从鹈鹕队重新获得了这个选秀权,这对本赛季跌入联盟谷底的他们来说,仿佛是命运的眷顾。然而,让健康的哈利伯顿与彼得森搭档,有望在短期内打造出NBA顶级的后场组合之一。


2. 萨克拉门托国王

AJ·迪班萨,小前锋,杨百翰大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 22.9分、7.1篮板、3.9助攻(16场比赛)

大学篮球界没有比迪班萨状态更火热的球员了。他已连续九场比赛以超过50%的命中率砍下20+得分——成为过去30年首位做到这一点的一级联盟(D-I)大一新生——并凭此强势冲击状元位置。球探们希望看到他打得更具侵略性,而他用行动做出了回应。这届新秀中没有谁比他更具身体天赋,他凭借自己的身材优势持球冲击、杀入禁区惩罚防守的能力,使他成为一名特别的球员。他的持球倾向和时好时坏的三分球命中率(32.6%)是球探们在顶级三人组之间进行细致比较时考虑的因素,但迪班萨的上限与本届选秀中的任何人一样高。

虽然迪班萨的连续高光表现大多是在对阵较弱的对手时取得的,但杨百翰大学未来还有许多重要的考验,包括对阵亚利桑那大学、休斯顿大学、爱荷华州立大学的比赛,以及本赛季最受球探关注的焦点之战——1月31日在艾伦球馆对阵达林·彼得森和堪萨斯大学。

多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis) 和基根·默里 (Keegan Murray) 的伤病,导致了萨克拉门托在总经理斯科特·佩里 (Scott Perry) 执掌管理层的首个赛季战绩滑坡。由于国王队手握自己所有的首轮签,一次乐透好运将使他们能够围绕一位年轻球星重塑阵容。他们在2月5日交易截止日前的动向将说明一切。


3. 亚特兰大老鹰(来自新奥尔良)

卡梅伦·布泽尔,大前锋/中锋,杜克大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 22.9分、9.5篮板、4.2助攻(16场比赛)

布泽尔继续做着他最擅长的事情,带领着一支主要由低年级球员组成的杜克大学不断取胜。他全面的数据、沉着冷静的竞争天性以及对团队篮球的感觉,使他成为一名可塑性极强的进攻球员,无论加盟哪支球队都能立即带来提升。虽然一些评估者对他缺乏垂直爆发力持有负面的感官偏见,但这些担忧似乎更多地体现在防守端:他的两分球命中率高达66%,但在16场比赛中仅有11次盖帽。布泽尔是一名强大的团队防守者,但作为护筐手能力有限,他的下家球队必须考虑到这一点。

布泽尔最终在前三顺位中的具体位置很可能取决于球队的适配性——一支拥有成熟外线天赋的球队完全有理由将他排在另外两人之前。但就目前而言,考虑到这三人组历史级的多产表现,很难看到有其他球员能提出足够有力的理由来打破这一梯队。

老鹰队送走特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 时就明白,他们将有机会通过这个选秀权增添一位明星天才,因为鹈鹕队仍在西部联盟垫底。虽然布泽尔与杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 的搭档可能不完美,但这将是一个基于“可选最佳球员”原则的决定。


4. 华盛顿奇才

凯莱布·威尔逊,大前锋/中锋,北卡罗来纳大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 19.5分、11.0篮板、2.7助攻(16场比赛)

威尔逊在北卡罗来纳大学一直保持着高效的产出,他兼具垂直爆发力、防守组织能力和进攻端的成长空间,这让他稳固了自己很可能进入前五顺位的地位。虽然他在分区联盟赛中将面临重要的考验,特别是与卡姆·布泽尔和杜克大学的两场正面对决,但即便进攻技术尚显粗糙,威尔逊的活力和对胜利的影响力已经赢得了人们的青睐。球队对他的外线投射能力存有疑问,他将有更好的机会在选秀前试训中解答这些问题,但他已经凭借成为一名潜在的全能前场佼佼者的实力,在下一个梯队的选秀中拉开了一些差距。

在得到特雷·杨之后,奇才队仍在白纸上进行重建,不过这一举动可能会根据这个选秀权的最终顺位,排除他们选择控球后卫的可能性。威尔逊可以与日益进步的亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr) 在前场完美搭档,打造出一支既能打快节奏又能保持场上高度的球队。


5. 犹他爵士

金斯顿·弗莱明斯,控球后卫,休斯顿大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 15.7分、3.3篮板、5.1助攻(16场比赛)

弗莱明斯本赛季几乎获得了NBA评估者的一致认可,这使他成为本届首位被选中的纯控卫的热门人选。他持球时快如闪电,喜欢身体对抗,并且能通过运球送出精准的传球,为休斯顿大学带来了充满活力的创造力。尽管他的投篮姿势并非教科书般标准,但弗莱明斯似乎在他的跳投方面取得了重大飞跃,而这正是本赛季之前限制他的地方。这也是球探在预测其长期影响力时持续评估的一个领域。他在防守端还有提升空间,但他的成长轨迹和崭露头角的明星气质已成为一个重要的跳板,很可能将他送入前五顺位。

基扬特·乔治 (Keyonte George) 成为最快进步球员竞争者的崛起(以及阵容中其他年轻后卫的存在)不应妨碍爵士在这种情况下认真考虑一位纯正的控球后卫。如果弗莱明斯能保持目前的势头,他掌控比赛节奏和提升队友的能力,应该会超越其他阵容构建的考量因素。


6. 布鲁克林篮网

米克尔·布朗二世,控球后卫,路易斯维尔大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 16.6分、3.0篮板、5.1助攻(10场比赛)

目前还处于选秀评估的早期阶段,但我从众多球队消息源处得到的感觉是,本次选秀在前五顺位之后变得豁然开朗。尽管榜单上仍有大量天才球员,但下一梯队新秀之间的差距更小,球探们对这些球员的长期前景预测也存在更大的差异。这种情况仍有时间改变,但在进入赛季后半段时,乐透区的其余位置充满了变数。

这就让我们谈到了布朗,他因背部伤势自12月13日以来一直没有出场,并且归期未定。他曾展现出强大的天赋闪光点,包括11月对阵肯塔基大学时砍下29分,但他的缺席让他冲击前五的势头停滞,为金斯顿·弗莱明斯甚至可能达里厄斯·阿库夫 (Darius Acuff) 在控卫层级上超越他打开了大门。布朗作为一名强硬的外线投篮创造者和组织者,加上他出色的位置身高,将使他继续留在乐透区的讨论中,但他的防守表现和不稳定的投篮(三分命中率26.8%)给他留下了一些悬而未决的问题,有待他回归后解答。

篮网队希望今年能有更好的乐透运气,但如果他们的选秀权没能进入前四,他们可能会发现自己处于一个棘手的境地。无论是否适配,布朗的潜力都会让他在这里被纳入考虑。


7. 夏洛特黄蜂

内特·阿门特,小前锋/大前锋,田纳西大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 14.9分、6.4篮板、2.5助攻(16场比赛)

阿门特是最难评估的新秀之一,NBA球探们对他赛季前半段的表现展现出不同程度的耐心。他在得分效率(52.9%真实命中率)和身体适应大学比赛方面都遇到了困难。或许比他投篮挣扎(三分命中率28.8%)更令人担忧的是,他看起来运动能力并非特别出色,这让他难以作为外线得分手创造优势,或在无球时持续影响比赛。他最终可能更适合打大前锋,而不是侧翼。

NBA球队将密切关注阿门特是否能在赛季后半段摆脱低迷。联盟中大多数人认为阿门特完全掉出乐透区的可能性不大,因为像他这样身高(6英尺10英寸)且具备外线技术的球员实在难得,他作为空间型四号位的潜力仍然引人遐想。但无论哪支球队选择他,都必须明白他可能需要数年时间才能成长为一名有影响力的球员。他的选秀范围比几个月前预期的要宽得多,尤其是在他无法扭转局面的情况下。

黄蜂队对其2025届新秀的早期回报感到满意,其中以康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 为首。随着球队向季后赛竞争者行列迈进,他们可能将阿门特视为与年轻核心长期搭档的潜在人选。


8. 芝加哥公牛

杰登·奎因坦斯,中锋,肯塔基大学
大二学生
2025-26赛季数据: 5.0分、5.0篮板、0.8盖帽(4场比赛)

奎因坦斯因主教练马克·波普 (Mark Pope) 所说的膝盖肿胀缺席了肯塔基大学周末的比赛,考虑到他去年三月刚接受前十字韧带(ACL)手术,NBA球队希望这不会演变成长期缺阵。他在复出后的四场比赛中表现起伏不定,只有对阵圣约翰大学的一场强劲表现值得一提,那场比赛中他的身体素质和防守表现令人印象深刻。外界对奎因坦斯的看法比这个顺位所显示的更为复杂,球探们对他进攻端的局限性存有疑问,他作为一个身材偏小的中锋,可能无法拉开空间,也不值得球队为他设计专门的战术。但是,这届选秀中顶级中锋新秀的匮乏以及奎因坦斯强大的防守潜力,应该能让他继续留在那些寻求补强前场的球队的讨论中。

就目前而言,芝加哥应该考虑如何解决这个位置的长期问题,尼古拉·武切维奇 (Nikola Vucevic) 现年35岁,正处于合同的最后一年。将奎因坦斯——一个空接威胁点和潜在的防守基石——与约什·吉迪 (Josh Giddey) 搭档可能是一个可行的组合。


9. 达拉斯独行侠

达里厄斯·阿库夫二世,控球后卫,阿肯色大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 19.9分、2.8篮板、5.9助攻(16场比赛)

阿库夫在主教练约翰·卡利帕里 (John Calipari) 的指导下茁壮成长,展示了他在承担重任的情况下也能驱动胜利,并已将自己确立为乐透区的竞争者。他的力量、技术水平以及突入禁区时的变速能力使他成为一个难以防守的球员,并且他在决策和投篮(三分命中率42.5%)方面表现出关键的成长,也愿意做出正确的选择。由于对他有限的防守影响以及他的持球主导打法如何转化到NBA的担忧,他在球探中可能存在两极分化的评价,但你很难不对他本赛季的表现留下深刻印象。考虑到越来越多的人认为本次乐透区在前五顺位之后趋于平庸,阿库夫似乎很可能受到需要后卫的球队的早期关注。

本次选秀之后,独行侠要到2031年才能掌控自己的首轮签,这使得这次选秀成为为库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 增添一位年轻搭档的关键机会。随着凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 仍然受伤且处于职业生涯后半段,阿库夫可以为这支球队的控卫位置提供长期稳定性,而且在这支球队里他不必承担全部的进攻重担。


10. 密尔沃基雄鹿

托马斯·豪,小前锋/大前锋,佛罗里达大学
大三学生
2025-26赛季数据: 17.2分、6.6篮板、2.3助攻(16场比赛)

豪在佛罗里达大学继续打出了一个出色的赛季,他在那里承担了重要的任务,并在得分方面有所进步。他被看作是一个多功能的即插即用型球员,拥有位置身高(6英尺9英寸)和传球本能,无论被放入何种NBA阵容,都应该能起到增强作用。作为一名22岁、投射能力一般(三分命中率32.9%)且不怎么创造自主进攻机会的新秀,豪将更适合那些希望转型为季后赛竞争者的球队。但随着乐透区后段人才逐渐稀疏,他作为一个可靠的贡献者,有望在新秀合同期内提供轮换价值,因而颇具吸引力。

根据扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 的情况发展,雄鹿队应该会是认真考虑将豪作为锋线有限选择的升级方案的球队之一——前提是他们打算留住阿德托昆博。密尔沃基将拥有自己和亚特兰大顺位中较差的一个,这为球队万一错过季后赛提供了一个保障。


11. 波特兰开拓者

亚克塞尔·伦德博格,大前锋/中锋,密歇根大学
大四学生
2025-26赛季数据: 14.7分、6.9篮板、1.4盖帽(15场比赛)

伦德博格在密歇根大学表现出色,他所扮演的重要角色与他未来在NBA中可能被部署的方式非常相似。他能胜任两个前锋位置——甚至可能打一些小个阵容的中锋,同时提供出色的身体素质和高于平均水平的技术——这赋予了他内在的可塑性,尽管年龄偏大,但这应该能将他推入乐透区。虽然他身上可感知的成长潜力不大——他已经23岁了——但伦德博格已经证明,他可以通过稳定的表现驱动胜利,并通过留在大学打球极大地提升了自己的形象。

开拓者需要像伦德博格这样的球员来拉开空间并提供阵容多样性——这可以说是解决杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 当前角色的一个成本更低的方式。波特兰只有在进入季后赛的情况下才会将他们的选秀权送给芝加哥。


12. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆(来自洛杉矶快船)

布雷伦·穆林斯,得分后卫,康涅狄格大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 11.7分、3.7篮板、1.5助攻(11场比赛)

在对阵普罗维登斯学院的比赛中,穆林斯砍下24分(三分球10投6中)的惊艳表现,突显了他作为外线得分手的潜力。在脚踝伤势推迟了他赛季初的比赛后,他看起来越来越自如了。他的个人资料中仍有一些不足——他在11场比赛中只罚了10次球,并且没有给篮筐施加太大的冲击压力,部分原因是康涅狄格大学严谨的战术体系所致。但这也指出了穆林斯有限的爆发力和需要增强力量的问题。他天生就是得分手,随着赛季的进行,他还有足够的时间来展示稳定性和成长。他的选秀范围很广,取决于球队如何权衡他的不足与他潜在的精英级投射能力。

竞争对手们正暗自希望快船(过去12场比赛10胜2负)能继续扭转颓势,从而降低雷霆再次获得一个高价值选秀权的机会。俄克拉荷马城在本届选秀中拥有三个首轮签,而下赛季的阵容名额可能有限,这促使他们最终可能会整合选秀权并在选秀中进行操作。考虑到他们已经组建的年轻阵容和深度,雷霆队无论增加谁,都可能是一种奢侈。


13. 孟菲斯灰熊

贝内特·斯特尔茨,控球后卫,爱荷华大学
大四学生
2025-26赛季数据: 17.6分、2.4篮板、5.1助攻(16场比赛)

斯特尔茨作为爱荷华大学体系的核心,正在打出一个强劲的赛季,他展现了值得信赖的组织能力和出色的外线投射(三分命中率39.4%)。他如何应对十大联盟(Big Ten)赛程的大部分比赛将具有指标意义,因为对手会在防守端对他使出浑身解数,而且鹰眼队没有其他球员场均得分上双。他作为挡拆战术指挥官的技术和拉开空间的能力应该能使他成为一名积极的进攻球员,但由于速度并非特别快,他在防守端将受到考验。作为一名年龄较大的后卫,他最终是否能进入乐透区可能取决于球队的需求,因为随着选秀深度变浅,他会成为一个合理的赌注。

沙姆斯·查拉尼亚 (Shams Charania) 上周报道称,灰熊队对交易贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 持开放态度,这将改变球队的结构,并指向一个更长的竞争时间线,这与他们上个休赛期交易德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 的决定相符。由于孟菲斯拥有自己所有的首轮签,并且在本届选秀中有多个签位,继续打造一支更年轻的阵容将是当务之急。如果莫兰特被交易,用这个选秀权来解决后场问题将是一个可行的途径。


14. 圣安东尼奥马刺(来自亚特兰大)

科阿·皮特,大前锋/中锋,亚利桑那大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 14.8分、5.8篮板、0.7盖帽(16场比赛)

皮特已经成为潜在乐透秀中争议较大的人物之一。球队一方面被他的篮板能力、坚韧和无形资产所吸引,但另一方面又担心他缺乏位置身高、护筐能力有限以及投篮数据不佳(三分命中率23.1%,罚球命中率63.2%)。他一直是亚利桑那大学赢球的驱动力,但他多种弱点的组合使得他的前景难以预测,尤其是在NBA强调创造和利用空间的背景下。他适配性的特殊要求预示着他的选秀范围可能会很广。

圣安东尼奥可以与亚特兰大互换选秀权,这给了他们一个进入乐透区末段的潜在途径,也是一次围绕维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 巩固可靠配角阵容的机会。马刺队在后卫位置上深度充足,大概率会认真考虑补强前场,而皮特在选秀的这个阶段拥有“可选最佳球员”的理由。


15. 金州勇士

拉巴朗·菲隆二世,控球后卫/得分后卫,阿拉巴马大学
大二学生
2025-26赛季数据: 21.3分、3.3篮板、5.1助攻(15场比赛)

菲隆决定重返阿拉巴马大学的决定对他大有裨益,他打出了一个出色的赛季,展示了作为得分手的全面成长,并承担了更多的责任。他利用运球节奏变化来弥补顶级爆发力的不足,加上球队快节奏的风格,使他成为大学篮球界最好的后卫之一。球探们仍然对他是否能作为全职首发带领一支NBA赢球队伍,或者他是否更适合作为替补得分手存有疑问,他的得分倾向更偏向后者,且防守影响力不稳定。

金州勇士在斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 职业生涯接近尾声之际仍在努力竞争,这使得他们在交易截止日前成为一支有趣的球队,特别是乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 仍在阵中。他们可以交易这个选秀权,这对于一支连续六个赛季缴纳奢侈税的球队来说,可以节省开支。菲隆将为球队提供额外的后场深度和投篮创造力。


16. 孟菲斯灰熊(来自菲尼克斯)

克里斯·塞纳克二世,大前锋/中锋,休斯顿大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 9.3分、7.4篮板、0.5盖帽(16场比赛)

塞纳克适应大学篮球的过程比较缓慢,他在休斯顿大学保住了首发位置,但在大一新生的成长阵痛中边打边学。他偶尔展现出的外线投篮手感(三分命中率40%)和长期的发展潜力,为他成为一名空间型大个子提供了成功路径,但他不稳定的产出让球探们持观望态度。评估者们对他的看法五花八门,都希望在赛季后半段看到他更切实的成长。

孟菲斯将得到菲尼克斯和奥兰多选秀权中顺位更高的一个,这可能让他们在20顺位以内获得第二个选秀权。


17. 多伦多猛龙

帕特里克·农巴二世,中锋,杜克大学
大二学生
2025-26赛季数据: 10.9分、6.4篮板、1.4盖帽(16场比赛)

尽管过去一个月表现好坏参半,但农巴本赛季的表现已经提升了自己的行情,在一个中锋人才稀缺的选秀年中,他凭借出众的篮球本能和同等身材下的组织能力,成为了一个值得长期投资的选择。农巴出色的传球能力让杜克大学可以围绕他展开战术,如果他能开发出可靠的跳投,这将赋予他在外线发挥作用的可行性。尽管他的体能状况有所改善,但他在篮下作为终结者时缺乏垂直起跳能力一直是一个令人担忧的问题。他足够全面,有望最终成为一名NBA的贡献者,但这需要从身体角度做出乐观的预测。

多伦多目前处于季后赛席位,并可能在交易截止日进行补强。猛龙队在中锋位置上深度有限,这可能是他们通过选秀来解决的一个领域。


18. 迈阿密热火

基顿·瓦格勒,控球后卫/得分后卫,伊利诺伊大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 15.7分、5.2篮板、3.8 assists in 16 games

瓦格勒在一支高质量的伊利诺伊大学队中是不可或缺的球员,他在缺乏高水平比赛经验的情况下为球队胜利做出了贡献,并让自己进入了新秀观察名单。虽然作为持球组织者仍在发展中,但他作为串联者以及外线投篮能力(三分命中率41.2%),再加上出色的位置身高,使他进入了首轮的讨论。作为一名拥有明显NBA吸引力的晚熟新秀,问题更多在于他今年参加选秀是否更好,还是应该返回学校磨练自己的持球技术。

热火队一直在没有传统主控的情况下运作,他们可以通过选秀为后场增添一名年轻球员而受益。


19. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆(来自费城)

汉内斯·施泰因巴赫,大前锋/中锋,华盛顿大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 18.4分、11.0篮板、0.8盖帽(13场比赛)

施泰因巴赫是大学篮球界最高效的球员之一,但球探们对他的评价褒贬不一,他在华盛顿大学近期的失利中暴露了防守局限性。他不是一个高水平的盖帽手(13场比赛10次盖帽),并且在防守大空间时移动脚步困难,这两个问题再加上他作为中锋身材偏小(6英尺11英寸),都令人担忧。他稳定的进攻贡献和篮下得分手感将继续吸引球探的目光,但长期潜力有限使得他在首轮后半段成为一个更合理的选择。

这是OKC三个首轮选秀权中的第二个,雷霆最终很可能会以某种方式将它们整合。


20. 夏洛特黄蜂(来自奥兰多)

卡里姆·洛佩斯,小前锋/大前锋,新西兰破坏者队
2025-26赛季数据: 10.6分、5.6篮板、1.9助攻

在NBL联赛打出一个高效赛季的同时,洛佩斯从络绎不绝前往澳大利亚考察的球探那里得到了褒贬不一的评价。他大部分时间里表现高效且富有成效,但围绕他防守、运动能力和一般投射水平(三分命中率32.5%)的普遍担忧使他成为一个有争议的球员。对他球感、韧性和持球技术的乐观态度将给他一个在NBA立足的机会,但就目前而言,他似乎正朝着选秀的这个区间发展。他仍然是这届被认为是实力较弱的国际新秀中的领军人物。

夏洛特将得到华盛顿(如果顺位在1-8)、菲尼克斯、奥兰多和孟菲斯选秀权中顺位最差的一个。


21. 亚特兰大老鹰(来自波士顿)

卡梅伦·卡尔,得分后卫,贝勒大学
大二学生
2025-26赛季数据: 20.5分、5.3篮板、2.0助攻(15场比赛)

卡尔继续打出一个爆发性的赛季,并已将自己确立为一个有趣的首轮潜力股。他是一名充满爆发力的运动员,并且持续以高命中率(三分命中率40.3%)命中外线投篮。他高难度的出手选择、有限的组织能力和不稳定的防守仍存在一定程度的疑虑,并且随着贝勒大学在艰难的大十二联盟中开局不利,他将继续受到考验。如果他能保持这种表现,卡尔将凭借他的身体条件和投射能力成为一个有趣的赌注,即使他不像典型的21岁首轮秀那样技术成熟。

老鹰队可以将自己和马刺队中较差的选秀权与骑士队的首轮选秀权进行互换。


22. 洛杉矶湖人

通德·耶索弗,小前锋,贝勒大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 17.5分、6.0篮板、2.0助攻(15场比赛)

耶索弗“大一新生参选”的前景并不像几个月前一些人预期的那样明朗,他不太稳定的投篮(三分命中率31%)和冲击篮筐的困难仍然是需要改进的领域。贝勒大学缺乏有活力的后卫并没有让他的处境变得更容易。他出色的身体框架和防守端的成长空间展现了潜力,但他低于平均水平的持球技术让人很难看到他在近期能为自己持续创造高效的进攻机会。他需要一个强劲的赛季后半段来巩固自己在这个区间的地位,但随着选秀在20多顺位人才逐渐稀少,他仍然是一个有趣的选择。


23. 明尼苏达森林狼

克里斯蒂安·安德森,控球后卫,德州理工大学
大二学生
2025-26赛季数据: 19.3分、3.6篮板、7.2助攻(16场比赛)

上赛季大部分时间远离球权的安德森,本赛季已经成长为德州理工大学的一名优质场上领袖。他有望成为NBA级别的有效比赛管理者,他是一名决策能力出色、身材适中、失误少且能命中远投(三分命中率42%)的球员。虽然不华丽,但他本赛季取得了不错的飞跃,并正在为自己参加选秀积累资本——但他也是那种可能会获得丰厚的NIL收入以留在大学再打一年的球员。控球后卫的深度是这届选秀较强的领域之一,他已经开始通过自己的表现进入20多顺位的讨论范围。


24. 波士顿凯尔特人

以赛亚·埃文斯,得分后卫,杜克大学
大二学生
2025-26赛季数据: 14.4分、3.5篮板、1.4助攻(16场比赛)

埃文斯为杜克大学连续贡献了三场精彩表现,球队依赖他来创造进攻和围绕卡姆·布泽尔拉开空间。他流畅、充满活力的移动投篮和扎实的位置身高是他的亮点,但比赛的其他方面仍有待打磨,他需要为自己纤细的身体增加可观的力量。他在NBA显然有其用武之地,但距离在那个级别立足还很遥远,这使他处于这批争夺首轮末段位置的庞大球员群体中。


25. 丹佛掘金

内奥克利斯·阿夫达拉斯,小前锋,弗吉尼亚理工大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 14.5分、3.4篮板、5.0助攻(16场比赛)

对阿夫达拉斯来说,这是一个起伏不定的赛季,他展现了一些惊人的天赋闪光点,但也因其平平的投篮(三分命中率32.9%,罚球命中率67.6%)和缺乏爆发力而受到限制。他的身高、视野和技术水平将使他继续留在NBA的视野中,但他也可能最终需要更多时间在大学里发展。他作为高个组织者的模板可能会使他成为这个顺位区间一个合理的赌注。


26. 克利夫兰骑士(来自圣安东尼奥)

亨利·维萨尔,中锋,北卡罗来纳大学
大三学生
2025-26赛季数据: 16.9分、9.2篮板、1.1盖帽(16场比赛)

在从亚利桑那大学转学后的首个首发赛季,维萨尔在北卡罗来纳大学展现了相当大的价值。他凭借真正的7英尺身高在篮板上持续做出贡献,篮下终结能力出色,展现了传球技巧,并且三分命中率高达51%。对于一名轮换大个子来说,这是一个很好的优势组合,尽管他不是一个移动能力很强的防守者,并且可能需要打沉退防守。在一个与NBA球队可能希望部署他的方式有些相似的角色中,他一直是凯莱布·威尔逊的绝佳搭档。

骑士队将得到圣安东尼奥和亚特兰大选秀权中较差的一个,以及他们自己的选秀权。


27. 纽约尼克斯

亚历克斯·卡拉班,小前锋/大前锋,康涅狄格大学
大四学生
2025-26赛季数据: 14.0分、5.3篮板、2.1助攻(17场比赛)

作为这个时代大学篮球界最成功的球员之一,卡拉班将吸引季后赛球队从首轮末段开始关注他。尽管年龄较大,长期潜力有限,但他能为锋线提供即时深度。虽然他不会创造太多自主进攻,且运动能力有限,但他的投射能力、传球能力和整体的竞争韧性,可以在替补席上为球队增添价值。随着拥有剩余资格的球员开始退出选秀,卡拉班应该会在选秀的这个部分或第二轮初段获得机会。


28. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆(来自休斯顿)

泰勒·坦纳,控球后卫/得分后卫,范德比尔特大学
大二学生
2025-26赛季数据: 17.3分、3.6篮板、5.4助攻(16场比赛)

坦纳是不败之师范德比尔特大学的一大发现,他正迫使NBA球队更仔细地审视他。尽管身高不占优势,他作为得分手和组织者创造了一些激动人心的时刻。他拥有出色的传球本能,并且效率惊人,尤其对于一个6英尺的后卫来说。坦纳知道如何在篮筐周围创造性地得分,但像他这样身高的球员在NBA防守端能做出积极贡献的情况很少见,他需要继续证明自己作为三分射手的能力——本赛季三分命中率已提升至38.8%,而上赛季仅为26%。

像坦纳这样身高的球员最终要在NBA站稳脚跟的门槛相当高——他将是自2018年阿龙·霍乐迪 (Aaron Holiday) 以来首位在首轮被选中的6英尺后卫——但球探们很想在未来几个月里更多地了解他。


29. 底特律活塞

阿迪·马拉,中锋,密歇根大学
大二学生
2025-26赛季数据: 10.1分、7.9篮板、2.5盖帽(15场比赛)

密歇根大学帮助优化了马拉独特的组合:巨大的身材(7英尺3英寸,255磅)和富有创造力的传球能力,这使他成为一个适配性特定但情境下极具吸引力的球员,尤其是在NBA球队转向在场上保持高度的趋势下。他糟糕的罚球命中率(41.9%)使得他似乎不太可能成为一个出色的跳投手,但他占据沉退防守空间和帮助促进球流动性的能力应该能让他在联盟中占有一席之地,因为NBA球队再次开始重视前场的高度。


30. 华盛顿奇才(来自俄克拉荷马城)

布雷登·伯里斯,得分后卫,亚利桑那大学
大一新生
2025-26赛季数据: 14.6分、4.3篮板、2.6助攻(16场比赛)

在赛季初表现平平之后,伯里斯已经开始为不败的亚利桑那大学发力,展示了他扎实的得分本能、技术水平,并且在找到自己的得分点方面做得更好了。上周对阵堪萨斯州立大学时砍下28分是他的高光时刻,他在一支优秀球队中的重要角色是继续改变人们看法的坚实平台。他作为分卫低于平均水平的身材和运动能力,阻碍了他成为一个确定的大一新生参选者,但继续保持高水平的产出将使他成为NBA球队考虑的一个更有趣和更直接的选择。伯里斯本赛季展现的成长令人鼓舞,尽管他最终可能更适合返回学校继续深造。

第二轮选秀

  1. 孟菲斯灰熊(来自印第安纳): 达什·丹尼尔斯,控球后卫/得分后卫,墨尔本联队(澳大利亚)
  2. 萨克拉门托国王: 塞尔吉奥·德拉雷亚,控球后卫/得分后卫,瓦伦西亚(西班牙)
  3. 波士顿凯尔特人(来自新奥尔良): 米利克·托马斯,控球后卫/得分后卫,阿肯色大学,大一新生
  4. 纽约尼克斯(来自华盛顿): 瑞安·康威尔,得分后卫,路易斯维尔大学,大四学生
  5. 圣安东尼奥马刺(来自犹他): 布雷登·史密斯,控球后卫,普渡大学,大四学生
  6. 布鲁克林篮网: 达姆·萨尔,得分后卫/小前锋,杜克大学,大一新生
  7. 萨克拉门托国王(来自夏洛特): 马特·阿贝尔,小前锋,北卡州立大学,大一新生
  8. 休斯顿火箭(来自芝加哥): 约书亚·杰斐逊,小前锋/大前锋,爱荷华州立大学,大四学生
  9. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆(来自达拉斯): 保罗·麦克尼尔二世,得分后卫,北卡州立大学,大二学生
  10. 波士顿凯尔特人(来自密尔沃基): 祖比·埃吉奥福,大前锋/中锋,圣约翰大学,大四学生
  11. 圣安东尼奥马刺(来自波特兰): 朱克·哈里斯,得分后卫,维克森林大学,大二学生
  12. 布鲁克林篮网(来自洛杉矶快船): 亚历克斯·康登,中锋,佛罗里达大学,大三学生
  13. 洛杉矶快船(来自孟菲斯): 莫雷斯·约翰逊二世,大前锋/中锋,密歇根大学,大二学生
  14. 布鲁克林篮网(来自亚特兰大): 迈尔斯·伯德,得分后卫/小前锋,圣迭戈州立大学,大三学生
  15. 夏洛特黄蜂(来自金州): 塔哈德·佩蒂福德,控球后卫,奥本大学,大二学生
  16. 华盛顿奇才(来自菲尼克斯): JT·托平,大前锋/中锋,德州理工大学,大四学生
  17. 多伦多猛龙: 戴林·斯温,得分后卫/小前锋,德克萨斯大学,大三学生
  18. 圣安东尼奥马刺(来自迈阿密): 约瑟夫·图格勒,大前锋/中锋,休斯顿大学,大三学生
  19. 菲尼克斯太阳(来自费城): 米洛斯·乌赞,控球后卫,休斯顿大学,大四学生
  20. 奥兰多魔术: 达里恩·威廉姆斯,小前锋,北卡州立大学,大四学生
  21. 克利夫兰骑士: 里奇·桑德斯,得分后卫/小前锋,杨百翰大学,大四学生
  22. 多伦多猛龙(来自洛杉矶湖人): 莫蒂尤斯·克里瓦斯,中锋,亚利桑那大学,大三学生
  23. 华盛顿奇才(来自明尼苏达): 索洛·鲍尔,得分后卫,康涅狄格大学,大三学生
  24. 亚特兰大老鹰(来自波士顿): 马贡·格瓦斯,中锋,圣迭戈州立大学,大二学生
  25. 明尼苏达森林狼(来自丹佛): 卡特·诺克斯,得分后卫/小前锋,阿肯色大学,大二学生
  26. 明尼苏达森林狼(来自圣安东尼奥): 托米斯拉夫·伊维西奇,中锋,伊利诺伊大学,大三学生
  27. 纽约尼克斯: 约翰·格伦洛,大前锋/中锋,弗吉尼亚大学,大一新生
  28. 休斯顿火箭: 塔克·德弗里斯,得分后卫/小前锋,印第安纳大学,大四学生
  29. 纽约尼克斯(来自底特律): 弗洛里·比东加,中锋,堪萨斯大学,大二学生
  30. 华盛顿奇才(来自俄克拉荷马城): 塔里斯·里德二世,大前锋/中锋,康涅狄格大学,大四学生

由生成式人工智能翻译,译文内容可能不准确或不完整,以原文为准。

By Jeremy Woo | ESPN, via ESPN

点击查看原文:2026 NBA mock draft: New prospects among first-round picks

2026 NBA mock draft: New prospects among first-round picks

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With college basketball entering the thick of conference play and the NBA standings taking shape at midseason, it’s a good juncture for a mock draft update.

The 2026 draft lottery is still five months out, but it will bring with it seismic consequences for the landscape of the league, with three strong No. 1 pick contenders – Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer – all performing at impressively high levels in college, fueling closed-door conversations as teams continue putting together their boards.

Caleb Wilson and Kingston Flemings have joined that trio to form what has become a soft consensus top five at this stage, but things are much harder to project from there. There’s a real difference of opinion around the NBA surrounding the depth and quality of the draft at this point in the process, beginning in the middle part of the lottery and on. Considering the availability of major NIL money, coupled with what NBA teams view as a wide-open 2027 draft class, the expectation remains that a significant number of prospects will ultimately remain in college to improve their stock if they are not entrenched in the first round. Those financial incentives probably will thin out the 20-40 range quite a bit, leaving significant room for prospects to play their way into the first round over the next few months.

This mock serves to project what things might look like if NBA teams drafted today. These projections are not a ranking of the top prospects – for that, consult ESPN’s Top 100. They are informed by ongoing conversations with NBA executives and scouts, as well as my own evaluation process from time spent on the road at games and watching film.

The draft order was formulated using ESPN’s BPI projections as of Jan. 9.

More NBA draft coverage:
Top 100 rankings of the 2026 prospects | More

Round 1 picks

1. Indiana Pacers

Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 22.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists in seven games

Peterson’s spotty health at Kansas has defined his season, but his availability to begin Big 12 play and efforts to push through in-game cramping have NBA teams hoping he is trending in the right direction. He has largely been stellar when on the court, totaling 158 points in 190 minutes on 63.2% true shooting. He plays with a special degree of poise creating shots, and has been highly effective even without displaying his typical explosiveness. The game comes easily to him, and he continues to hold down the top spot on ESPN’s Top 100.

It’s hard to be declarative on how Peterson’s health will impact things until teams receive his medical in the spring, but his stock as a top pick candidate has held firm. Continuing to play should help assuage lingering concerns. There is still time for consensus to solidify, but with all three of Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer playing at a very high level, this will likely come down to which team is picking No. 1 after the draft lottery in May.

Reacquiring this pick from the Pelicans shortly before Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in Game 7 of the Finals turned out to be a karmic stroke for the Pacers, who have spent this season in free fall at the bottom of the league. Pairing a healthy Haliburton with Peterson, however, could create one of the NBA’s top backcourts in short order.


2. Sacramento Kings

AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 22.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists in 16 games

There’s no hotter player in college basketball than Dybantsa, who has scored 20-plus points on 50-plus percent shooting in nine straight games – the first D-I freshman in the past 30 years to do so – and has done his part to force the issue atop the draft. Scouts wanted to see him play more aggressively, and he answered the call. No prospect in this class is more physically gifted, and his ability to punish defenses downhill and get into the paint at his size makes him a special player. His ball-dominant tendencies and streaky three-point shooting (32.6%) are factors for scouts as they split hairs between the top trio, but Dybantsa’s upside is as high as anyone in the draft.

While Dybantsa’s streak has largely come against inferior competition, BYU has plenty of significant tests ahead, including games against Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, and this season’s marquee scouting game at Allen Fieldhouse against Darryn Peterson and Kansas on Jan. 31.

Injuries to Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray have contributed to Sacramento’s backslide in general manager Scott Perry’s first season leading the front office. With the Kings holding all of their own first-round picks, striking lottery luck would allow them to recenter the roster on a young star. How they approach the Feb. 5 trade deadline will be telling.


3. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)

Cameron Boozer, PF/C, Duke
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 22.9 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists in 16 games

Boozer continues to do what he does best, driving Duke’s wins while leading a team largely composed of underclassmen. His all-around production, unflappable competitive nature and feel for team basketball make him a malleable offensive player who will immediately boost whatever team he joins. While there is some negative aesthetic bias among evaluators regarding his lack of vertical explosiveness, those concerns appear more pertinent on the defensive end: he’s made 66% of two-point attempts, but has recorded just 11 blocks in 16 games. Boozer is a strong team defender, but limited as a rim protector, which his next team will have to account for.

Where Boozer ultimately falls among the top three picks will likely depend on fit – a team with established perimeter talent could certainly justify him ahead of the other two. But at this point, it’s difficult to see another player making a strong enough case to crack this tier, considering how historically prolific the trio has been.

The Hawks moved on from Trae Young with the knowledge that they’ll have a chance to add a star talent with this draft pick, as the Pelicans remain at the bottom of the Western Conference. While Boozer’s fit with Jalen Johnson might be imperfect, this would be a best-available decision.


4. Washington Wizards

Caleb Wilson, PF/C, North Carolina
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 19.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists in 16 games

Wilson has remained productive for North Carolina, and his mix of vertical explosiveness, defensive playmaking and room to grow offensively has solidified him as a likely top-five selection. While there will be important tests ahead for him in conference play, particularly a pair of head-to-head games against Cam Boozer and Duke, Wilson’s energy and winning impact, even with an unpolished offensive game, have been endearing. Teams have questions about his perimeter shooting, something he’ll have a better chance of answering in predraft workouts, but he has created some separation in this next tier of the draft as a potentially versatile frontcourt standout.

After acquiring Trae Young, the Wizards are still building with a clean slate, although that move could preclude them from targeting a point guard depending on where this pick falls. Wilson could fit nicely alongside the improving Alex Sarr up front, creating a team capable of playing fast while also keeping size on the court.


5. Utah Jazz

Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 15.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists in 16 games

Flemings has drawn near-universal approval from NBA evaluators this season, giving him the inside track to be the first true point guard off the board. He’s a blur with the ball in his hands, likes playing through contact and can distribute accurate passes off the bounce, bringing dynamic energy as a creator for Houston. Although his mechanics aren’t textbook, Flemings appears to be making a significant leap with his jump shot, which held him back before this season. It’s an area scouts continue to assess when projecting his long-term impact. He has room to improve defensively, but his growth trajectory and blossoming star power have been a major springboard that could well land him in the top five.

The emergence of Keyonte George as a most improved contender (and the presence of other young guards on the roster) shouldn’t preclude the Jazz from taking a long look at a true point guard in this scenario. Flemings’ ability to play with pace and elevate the talent around him should supersede the other roster-building factors if he stays on his current track.


6. Brooklyn Nets

Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 16.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists in 10 games

It’s still early in this process, but the sense I’ve gotten from a wide range of team sources is that this draft opens up in a major way after the first five picks. Though there is plenty of talent left on the board, there is less separating the next group of prospects, and more variance in the confidence levels of scouts projecting long term for these players. There is still time for this to change, but the rest of the lottery is wide open going into the second half of the season.

That brings us to Brown, who has not played since Dec. 13 because of a back injury and remains out indefinitely. He showed strong flashes of talent, including 29 points against Kentucky in November, but his top-five momentum has stalled because of his absence, leaving the door open for Kingston Flemings and potentially Darius Acuff to leap him in the point-guard hierarchy. Brown’s upside as a tough perimeter shotmaker and playmaker with plus positional size will keep him in the lottery mix, but his defensive play and streaky shooting (26.8% from 3) have created some lingering questions for him to answer, pending his return.

The Nets are hoping for better lottery luck this year but could find themselves in a tricky position if their pick doesn’t move into the top four. Brown’s upside would put him in consideration here, irrespective of fit.


7. Charlotte Hornets

Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 14.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists in 16 games

Ament is one of the most difficult prospects to peg, with NBA scouts exhibiting varying degrees of patience surrounding the first half of his season. He has struggled to score efficiently (52.9% TS) and adjust physically to the college game. Perhaps more concerning than his shotmaking struggles (28.8% from 3) is the fact that he hasn’t looked especially athletic, making it hard for him to create advantages as a perimeter scorer or consistently affect play away from the ball. He might wind up best suited at power forward, rather than on the wing.

NBA teams will watch closely to see if Ament can break out of his slump during the second half of the season. Most around the league find it difficult to see Ament falling out of the lottery entirely, as players of his size (6-foot-10) with perimeter skills are simply hard to find, and his upside as a stretch-four remains intriguing. But whichever team selects him will do so with the understanding that he could take multiple years to blossom into an impactful player. His range is much wider than expected a few months ago, particularly if he’s unable to turn things around.

The Hornets have enjoyed early returns from their 2025 draftees, headlined by Kon Knueppel, and could view Ament as a potential long-term fit with their young core as they move closer to playoff contention.


8. Chicago Bulls

Jayden Quaintance, C, Kentucky
Sophomore

2025-26 stats: 5.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 0.8 blocks in four games

Quaintance sat out Kentucky’s game over the weekend with what was described by coach Mark Pope as knee swelling, a situation NBA teams will hope doesn’t turn into a prolonged absence coming off of his ACL surgery last March. Results have been uneven in his four games back, with a strong game against St. John’s his only notable showing, in which his physicality and defensive play impressed. Opinions on Quaintance are more mixed than this placement might indicate, as scouts have questions about his offensive limitations as a smaller center who probably won’t space the court or warrant focused touches. But the dearth of top-end center prospects in this class and Quaintance’s strong defensive potential should keep him in the conversation for teams targeting frontcourt help.

As it stands, Chicago should be thinking about how to address the position long term, with Nikola Vucevic now 35 and in the final year of his contract. Pairing Quaintance, a lob threat and potential defensive floor-raiser, with Josh Giddey could be a viable fit.


9. Dallas Mavericks

Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 19.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists in 16 games

Acuff has flourished under coach John Calipari, showing he can drive winning with heavy responsibility and has established himself as a lottery contender. His strength, skill level and ability to change speeds getting into the paint have made him a challenging cover, and he has shown critical growth as a decision-maker and shooter (42.5% from 3) and a willingness to make the right play. He can be polarizing with scouts because of concerns about his limited defensive impact and how his ball dominance will translate, but it’s hard not to be impressed with the season he has put together. Considering the growing perception that this lottery flattens out beyond the top five, Acuff seems likely to draw early consideration from guard-needy teams.

After this draft, the Mavericks won’t have control of their own first-round picks until 2031, making this a pivotal opportunity to add a younger running mate for Cooper Flagg. With Kyrie Irving still injured and on the back half of his career, Acuff could offer long-term stability at the position on a team in which he wouldn’t have to shoulder the full offensive load.


10. Milwaukee Bucks

Thomas Haugh, SF/PF, Florida
Junior

2025-26 stats: 17.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists in 16 games

Haugh continues to put together a terrific season at Florida, where he has carried a significant load and improved as a scorer. He profiles as a versatile plug-and-play option, with positional size (6-foot-9) and ball-moving instincts that should enhance whatever type of NBA lineups he is dropped into. As a 22-year-old prospect with an average shooting profile (32.9% from 3) who does not create a ton of his own offense, Haugh will be a better fit for teams looking to pivot into playoff contention. But as the lottery starts to thin out, he’s appealing as a reliable contributor who should provide rotation value on his rookie contract.

Depending on how Giannis Antetokounmpo’s situation evolves, the Bucks should be among the teams thinking hard about Haugh as an upgrade on their limited options at forward – if they intend to keep Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee owns the worst of its own pick and Atlanta’s, giving the franchise a safety net if it misses the playoffs.


11. Portland Trail Blazers

Yaxel Lendeborg, PF/C, Michigan
Senior

2025-26 stats: 14.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.4 blocks in 15 games

Lendeborg has been a terrific fit at Michigan, where he has inhabited a valuable role that mirrors how he is likely to be deployed in the NBA. His ability to handle both forward positions – as well as potentially play some small-ball five while providing plus physical tools and an above-average skill level – gives him intrinsic malleability that should boost him into the lottery despite his age. Though there is not a ton of perceived developmental upside with him – he’s already 23 years old – Lendeborg has proved he can drive winning with steady play and has helped his profile quite a bit by staying in college.

The Blazers could use a player in Lendeborg’s mold to space the court and provide lineup versatility – ostensibly a less expensive way to address Jerami Grant’s current role. Portland will convey its pick to Chicago only if it makes the playoffs.


12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA Clippers)

Braylon Mullins, SG, UConn
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 11.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists in 11 games

An impressive 24-point showing (6-of-10 from 3) against Providence highlighted Mullins’ upside as a perimeter scorer, and he continues to look more comfortable after an ankle injury delayed the start of his season. There are still some holes in his profile – he has taken only 10 free throws in 11 games and doesn’t put much pressure on the rim downhill, some of which is a product of UConn’s deliberate system. But it also points to Mullins’ limited explosiveness and need to gain strength. He is wired to score and has plenty of runway to show consistency and growth as the season progresses, with a wide draft range depending on how teams come to weigh his deficiencies against his potentially elite-level shooting.

Rival teams are quietly hoping the Clippers (10-2 in their past 12 games) will continue to turn things around and reduce the chances the Thunder will end up with another high-leverage selection. Oklahoma City has three first-round picks in this draft and probably will have limited roster spots rolling over to next season, creating an incentive to eventually consolidate and move around in the draft. Whomever the Thunder add probably will be a luxury considering the youth and depth they’ve already assembled.


13. Memphis Grizzlies

Bennett Stirtz, PG, Iowa
Senior

2025-26 stats: 17.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists in 16 games

Stirtz is putting together a strong season as the focal point of Iowa’s system, and displays trustworthy playmaking acumen and excellent perimeter shooting (39.4% from 3). How he navigates the bulk of the Big Ten schedule will be telling, as opponents throw the kitchen sink at him defensively, and with no other Hawkeyes averaging double figures. His skill as a ball-screen navigator and ability to stretch the court should make him a positive offensive player, but he will be tested defensively because he is not especially quick. Whether he ultimately winds up in the lottery as an older guard might hinge on a team’s needs, as the draft thins out and he becomes a reasonable bet.

Shams Charania reported last week that the Grizzlies are open to moving Ja Morant, which would change the structure of the team and point to a longer competitive timeline, in step with their decision to deal Desmond Bane last offseason. With Memphis holding all of its own first-round picks and having multiple picks in this draft, continuing to build a younger roster will be imperative. If Morant is traded, addressing the backcourt with this pick would be a viable route.


14. San Antonio Spurs (via Atlanta)

Koa Peat, PF/C, Arizona
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 14.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 0.7 blocks in 16 games

Peat has become one of the more polarizing potential lottery names, with teams simultaneously drawn to his rebounding, toughness and intangibles but concerned about his lack of positional size, limited rim protection and subpar shooting profile (23.1% from 3, 63.2% from the free throw line). He has been a driver of winning at Arizona, but his combination of weaknesses makes for a difficult projection, considering the NBA’s emphasis on creating and taking away space. The specificity of his fit points to what could be a wide draft range.

San Antonio can swap its pick with Atlanta’s, giving it a potential pathway into the late lottery and another chance to bolster a solid supporting cast around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs are deep at guard and will presumably look hard at frontcourt help, with Peat holding a best-available case at this point in the draft.


15. Golden State Warriors

Labaron Philon Jr., PG/SG, Alabama
Sophomore
2025-26 stats: 21.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists in 15 games

Philon’s decision to return to Alabama has been beneficial, as he has put together an excellent season, showing all-around growth as a scorer and taking on more responsibility. His ability to shift gears off the dribble in lieu of top-end explosiveness, coupled with his team’s uptempo style, has led to his emergence as one of the best guards in college basketball. Scouts still have questions about whether he can run a winning NBA team as a full-time starter or if he projects better as a bench scorer, with his scoring tendencies tilting more toward the latter and his defensive impact inconsistent.

Golden State continues to try to compete as Stephen Curry approaches the end of his career, making the Warriors an interesting team going into the trade deadline, particularly with Jonathan Kuminga still on the roster. They can trade this pick, something that could create savings for a team that has been in the luxury tax for six straight seasons. Philon would supply added backcourt depth and shot creation.


16. Memphis Grizzlies (via Phoenix)

Chris Cenac Jr., PF/C, Houston
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 9.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 0.5 blocks in 16 games

It has been a slow adjustment to college basketball for Cenac, who has held down his starting spot at Houston while learning on the fly amid freshman growing pains. His flashes of perimeter shooting touch (40% from 3) and long-term developmental upside give him a pathway to success as a stretch big, but his inconsistent production has kept scouts in wait-and-see mode. He is all over the board for evaluators, who are hoping to see more tangible growth in the second half of the season.

Memphis will receive the better of Phoenix’s and Orlando’s picks, potentially giving it a second selection inside the top 20.


17. Toronto Raptors

Patrick Ngongba II, C, Duke
Sophomore

2025-26 stats: 10.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks in 16 games

Though his past month has been a mixed bag, Ngongba has helped himself this season, standing out as a long-term bet on instincts and playmaking at his size in what has become a thin class of centers. Ngongba’s plus passing enables Duke to play through him and gives him some feasible perimeter functionality if he can develop a reliable jumper. Though his conditioning has improved, his lack of vertical lift around the basket as a finisher has been a point of concern. He is well-rounded enough to become an eventual NBA contributor, but that requires optimistic projection from a physical standpoint.

Toronto sits in a playoff position and could be in a spot to add at the deadline. The Raptors’ limited depth at center could be an area to address through the draft.


18. Miami Heat

Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 15.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists in 16 games

Wagler has been an irreplaceable player on a quality Illinois team, having a winning impact with limited high-level experience and putting himself on the map as a prospect. While still developing as an on-ball playmaker, his connective play and perimeter shotmaking (41.2% from 3), coupled with plus positional size, have put him in the first-round conversation. As a late-blooming prospect with obvious NBA appeal, the question revolves more around whether he is better off turning pro this year or returning to school and polishing his skills as a ball handler.

The Heat have been operating without a traditional lead playmaker and could benefit from adding a younger player to their backcourt with their selection.


19. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Philadelphia)

Hannes Steinbach, PF/C, Washington
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 18.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, 0.8 blocks in 13 games

Steinbach has been one of the most productive players in college basketball, but scouts have been mixed on him, with his defensive limitations on display in Washington’s recent losses. He’s not a high-level shot blocker (10 in 13 games) and struggles to move his feet in space, two areas of concern coupled with the fact that he is undersized (6-11) for a center. His steady offensive contributions and touch around the basket will continue to draw looks from scouts, but the long-term upside limitations make him a more reasonable bet in the back half of the first round.

This is the second of OKC’s three first-round selections, which the Thunder seem likely to eventually consolidate in some fashion.


20. Charlotte Hornets (via Orlando)

Karim Lopez, SF/PF, New Zealand Breakers
2025-26 stats:
10.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists

Amid a productive season in the NBL, Lopez has drawn mixed reviews from a steady stream of scouts making the trek to Australia. He has been mostly efficient and productive, but the overarching concerns around his defense, athleticism and average shooting (32.5% from 3) have made him divisive. Optimism around his feel, toughness and ball skills will give him a chance to stick in the NBA, but for now, he appears to be trending toward this part of the draft. He remains the headliner of what has been viewed as a weak international-based class.

Charlotte will receive the least favorable of Washington’s (if 1-8), Phoenix’s, Orlando’s and Memphis’ picks.


21. Atlanta Hawks (via Boston)

Cameron Carr, SG, Baylor
Sophomore

2025-26 stats: 20.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists in 15 games

Carr continues to put together a breakout season and has established himself as an intriguing first-round swing, as an explosive athlete who continues to knock down perimeter shots at a good clip (40.3% from 3). There’s still a degree of skepticism around his difficult shot selection, limited playmaking ability and inconsistent defense, and he’ll continue to be tested with Baylor off to a tough start in a difficult Big 12. If he can keep it up, Carr will present an intriguing bet on tools and shooting, even if he is not as polished as the typical 21-year-old first-round prospect.

The Hawks can swap the worse of their own pick and the Spurs’ pick with the Cavs’ first-round selection.


22. Los Angeles Lakers

Tounde Yessoufou, SF, Baylor
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 17.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists in 15 games

Yessoufou’s one-and-done case hasn’t been as clear-cut as some expected a couple of months ago, with his iffy shooting (31% from 3) and struggles getting to the rim remaining areas for improvement. Baylor’s lack of dynamic guard play hasn’t made his life easier. His excellent frame and room to grow defensively present upside, but his below-average ball skills make it hard to see him consistently creating efficient offense for himself in the near future. He’ll need a strong second half of the season to solidify his spot in this range, but he remains an interesting bet as the draft thins out in the 20s.


23. Minnesota Timberwolves

Christian Anderson, PG, Texas Tech
Sophomore

2025-26 stats: 19.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists in 16 games

Anderson has stepped up as a quality floor leader for Texas Tech after spending last season largely away from the ball. He projects as an effective game manager at the NBA level, as a good decision-maker with decent size who takes care of the ball and can knock down shots from long range (42% from 3). While not flashy, he has made a nice leap this season and is building a case to turn pro – but he is also the type of player who probably will command great money to stay in college another year. Point guard depth profiles as one of the stronger areas of this class, and he has begun to play his way into the mix in the 20s.


24. Boston Celtics

Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
Sophomore

2025-26 stats: 14.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists in 16 games

Evans has strung together three straight big performances for Duke, which has relied on him to manufacture offense and space the court around Cam Boozer. His fluid, dynamic movement shooting and solid positional size are nice calling cards, but the rest of his game is a work in progress, and he needs to add significant strength to his slender frame. There is an obvious use for him in the NBA, but he remains far from holding his own at that level, placing him in this large group of potential late first-rounders jockeying for position.


25. Denver Nuggets

Neoklis Avdalas, SF, Virginia Tech
Freshman

2025-26 stats: 14.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists in 16 games

It has been an inconsistent season for Avdalas, who has shown some loud flashes of talent but also has been held back by his average shooting (32.9% from 3 and 67.6% from the line) and lack of explosiveness. His size, vision and skill level will keep him on the NBA radar, but he could also end up needing more time to develop in college. His archetype as a big playmaker could make him a valid gamble in this range.


26. Cleveland Cavaliers (via San Antonio)

Henri Veesaar, C, North Carolina
Junior

2025-26 stats: 16.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.1 blocks in 16 games

In his first season as a starter after transferring from Arizona, Veesaar has been quite valuable at North Carolina, making a consistent impact on the glass with legit 7-foot size, finishing well around the rim, flashing passing skills and making 51% of his 3s. It’s a good mix of strengths for a rotational big man, although he’s not a highly mobile defender and probably will need to play in drop coverage. He has been an excellent partner for Caleb Wilson in a role that somewhat mirrors how an NBA team might want to deploy him.

The Cavs will wind up with the worse of San Antonio’s and Atlanta’s picks and their own.


27. New York Knicks

Alex Karaban, SF/PF, UConn
Senior

2025-26 stats: 14.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists in 17 games

One of the winningest college players of this era, Karaban will be a player who draws looks from playoff teams beginning at the end of the first round, offering immediate depth at forward, if not significant long-term upside at his age. Though he won’t create much of his own offense and is limited athletically, his ability to knock down shots, move the ball and overall competitive toughness could be additive in a bench context. As players with remaining eligibility begin to withdraw from the draft, Karaban should wind up with a case in this part of the draft or in the early second round.


28. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston)

Tyler Tanner, PG/SG, Vanderbilt
Sophomore

2025-26 stats: 17.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists in 16 games

Tanner, a revelation for undefeated Vanderbilt, is forcing NBA teams to take a harder look, producing some electric moments as a scorer and playmaker despite suboptimal height. He has terrific instincts moving the ball and has been remarkably efficient, particularly for a 6-foot guard. Tanner knows how to operate creatively around the rim, but it’s rare for players his size to be additive on defense in the NBA, and he’ll need to keep proving himself as a three-point shooter, now up to 38.8% after making just 26% last season.

The bar is quite high for players Tanner’s size to ultimately stick in the NBA – he would be the first 6-foot guard selected in the first round since Aaron Holiday in 2018 – but scouts are curious to learn more about him in the coming months.


29. Detroit Pistons

Aday Mara, C, Michigan
Sophomore

2025-26 stats: 10.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.5 blocks in 15 games

Michigan has helped optimize Mara’s unique mix of enormous size (7-3, 255) and creative passing ability, making him a fit-specific but situationally intriguing player as NBA teams have shifted toward having size on the court. His poor free throw shooting (41.9%) makes it seem unlikely he’ll become much of a jump shooter, but his ability to eat up space in drop coverage and help facilitate ball movement should give him a place in the league, with NBA teams again putting a premium on size up front.


30. Washington Wizards (via Oklahoma City)

Brayden Burries, SG, Arizona
Freshman
2025-26 stats:
14.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists in 16 games

After a slow start to the season, Burries has started to turn it on for undefeated Arizona, showing his solid scoring instincts, skill level and doing a better job of getting to his spots. His 28 points against Kansas State last week was the high mark, and his prominent role on a good team is a solid platform to continue changing people’s minds. His below-average size and athleticism for an off guard have held him back from being a sure one-and-done candidate, but continuing to produce at a high level will make him a more interesting and immediate option for NBA teams to consider. The growth Burries has shown this season has been encouraging, although he could wind up as a better candidate to return to school.

Round 2 picks

31. Memphis Grizzlies (via Indiana): Dash Daniels, PG/SG. Melbourne United (Australia)
32. Sacramento Kings: Sergio de Larrea, PG/SG, Valencia (Spain)
33. Boston Celtics (via New Orleans): Meleek Thomas, PG/SG, Arkansas, Freshman
34. New York Knicks (via Washington): Ryan Conwell. SG, Louisville, Senior
35. San Antonio Spurs (via Utah): Braden Smith, PG, Purdue, Senior
36. Brooklyn Nets: Dame Sarr, SG/SF, Duke, Freshman
37. Sacramento Kings (via Charlotte): Matt Able, SF, NC State, Freshman
38. Houston Rockets (via Chicago): Joshua Jefferson, SF/PF, Iowa State, Senior
39. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Dallas): Paul McNeil Jr., SG, NC State, Sophomore
40. Boston Celtics (via Milwaukee): Zuby Ejiofor, PF/C, St. John’s, Senior
41. San Antonio Spurs (via Portland): Juke Harris, SG, Wake Forest, Sophomore
42. Brooklyn Nets (via LA Clippers): Alex Condon, C, Florida, Junior
43. LA Clippers (via Memphis): Morez Johnson Jr., PF/C, Michigan, Sophomore
44. Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta): Miles Byrd, SG/SF, San Diego State, Junior
45. Charlotte Hornets (via Golden State): Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn, Sophomore
46. Washington Wizards (via Phoenix): JT Toppin, PF/C, Texas Tech, Senior
47. Toronto Raptors: Dailyn Swain, SG/SF, Texas, Junior
48. San Antonio Spurs (via Miami): Joseph Tugler, PF/C, Houston, Junior
49. Phoenix Suns (via Philadelphia): Milos Uzan, PG, Houston, Senior
50. Orlando Magic: Darrion Williams, SF, NC State, Senior
51. Cleveland Cavaliers: Richie Saunders, SG/SF, BYU, Senior
52. Toronto Raptors (via Los Angeles Lakers): Motiejus Krivas, C, Arizona, Junior
53. Washington Wizards (via Minnesota): Solo Ball, SG, UConn, Junior
54. Atlanta Hawks (via Boston): Magoon Gwath, C, San Diego State, Sophomore
55. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Denver): Karter Knox, SG/SF, Arkansas, Sophomore
56. Minnesota Timberwolves (via San Antonio): Tomislav Ivisic, C, Illinois, Junior
57. New York Knicks: Johann Grunloh, PF/C, Virginia, Freshman
58. Houston Rockets: Tucker DeVries, SG/SF, Indiana, Senior
59. New York Knicks (via Detroit): Flory Bidunga, C, Kansas, Sophomore
60. Washington Wizards (via Oklahoma City): Tarris Reed Jr., PF/C, UConn, Senior