By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2026-01-12 19:00:00
雷霆是伪强队！
这就是 r/nba 论坛和那些评论员们想让你相信的，在经历了一段6胜6负的赛程后，你也不难理解为何会有这种论调。
然而，关于雷霆的讨论已经摆向了另一个极端。别忘了，他们是史上唯二（另一支是73胜勇士）打出25胜1负开局的球队之一，所以，当时关于他们能否打破历史最佳战绩纪录的讨论是理所当然的。显然，这个话题现在已经无人再提，而一些老问题也助长了他们近期的“挣扎”。
那么，我们到底该为雷霆担心到什么程度呢？
让我们一探究竟。
雷霆真的“凉”了吗？
自从那场输给马刺的宿命之战以来，雷霆的净效率值“仅为”+4.9，同期排在联盟第六。令人印象深刻的是，即便对手的三分命中率高达38.5%（同期联盟第五高），他们的防守效率（109.6 DRTG）仍然高居联盟第四。雷霆的防守篮板率在过去一个月也下滑至仅69.4%（联盟第20位），而在他们势如破竹的25胜1负期间，这一数据为73.3%（联盟第5位）。考虑到这可能是他们防守端唯一可能表现平庸的环节，这项数据值得持续关注。尽管如此，值得注意的是，以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 在他们近期的“低迷”中缺席了超过一半的比赛，而雷霆的防守效率依然能排进前五，这一事实表明，他们完全有资格竞争历史最佳防守球队的称号。
然而，进攻端则是另一回事了。过去一个月，雷霆的进攻效率（114.4 ORTG）仅排在联盟第18位，三分命中率更是只有32.1%（第27位），而在赛季之初，他们的这项数据曾高达37.9%（第5位）。雷霆的罚球率也从25胜1负期间的23.9%（联盟第7高）下降到了近期的21.1%（第14位）。这看起来或许差别不大，但下降的部分几乎完全体现在了SGA身上。
在赛季前23场比赛中，这位卫冕MVP场均获得10.2次罚球机会，但在接下来的13场比赛中，这一数字骤降至6.5次。后一个数据并不包括他在最近两场比赛中获得的28次罚球。同时，罚球数的下滑也并非全联盟的趋势：卢卡 (Luka) 和德尼 (Deni)（联盟罚球次数最多的两名球员）的罚球数都没有出现下滑，所以我倾向于相信谢伊（Shai）的罚球数也会回到正常水平。
此外，很明显雷霆近期的滑坡很大程度上是心态问题。我们已经进入了赛季的疲劳期，即使是最好的球队也很难保持完全的动力。输给马刺的三场比赛令人沮丧，这也无疑让雷霆意识到打破历史最佳战绩纪录已遥不可及，因此他们失去一些求胜欲也是可以理解的。
最重要的是，将杰伦·威廉姆斯（JDub）重新整合进阵容带来的弊大于利。这并非因为他是一名糟糕的球员，而是他的回归打乱了雷霆赛季初建立的节奏。球队需要为一名刚刚从导致他四个月无法运球和投篮的伤病中恢复的球员，额外创造15次出手权。
如果说有什么不同的话，那就是在深入研究这些数据后，我反而对雷霆更有信心了。即使他们自己的三分投射无法回到精英水平，杰伦·威廉姆斯状态的回归以及谢伊罚球待遇的正常化也应该能抵消这一影响。防守端，一旦哈尔滕施泰因回归且对手的三分球手感降温，雷霆的表现甚至可能更上一层楼（如果这还有可能的话）。随着季后赛的临近，他们也会重新找回一些失去的动力。
所有这些因素都表明，雷霆不会有大问题，他们仍然是那支头号强队，这一点不应有任何疑问。
凯尔特人是新的“僵尸热火”吗？
日历已翻到2026年，波士顿依然是联盟顶级强队。
如果有人预言了这一点，那他一定是勒布朗欺骗学院的高材生。
目前，凯尔特人凭借联盟第二的进攻（123.2）和排名第16的防守（116.0），打出了+7.2的净效率值（联盟第4）。在缺少杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的情况下，他们居然有望取得超过50场胜利。进攻端，他们的打法一如既往，通过限制失误率（12.3%，联盟第2）并且不在乎制造犯规：凯尔特人的罚球率再次以16.9%垫底。毫不意外，波士顿继续在外线发炮，他们43.9%的出手来自三分线外，这一比例高居联盟第三。
不过，一个主要的变化是他们进攻篮板的增加。凯尔特人32%的进攻篮板率高居联盟第五，相比去年的27.6%有了巨大提升。用像内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta) 这样的顺下型内线替换掉波尔津吉斯 (Porzingis) 和霍福德 (Horford) 这样的空间型大个子，任何球队都会有这样的变化。克塔也是波士顿目前在二次进攻得分上排名第三（场均17.7分）的最大功臣——而在整个布朗 (Brown)/塔图姆时代，他们在这个领域一直表现平平。
克塔拥有出色的位置感和流畅性（尤其对于一个7英尺的大个子而言），他利用这些优势占据抢篮板和一步完成终结的最佳位置。在今年对阵明尼苏达的比赛中，他充分展示了这一点，面对鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 抢下了18个篮板，后者在下面这个回合中还被吹罚了干扰球。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
克塔也不仅仅是一个终结者。作为一名大个子，他也是一个不错的传球手，经常为队友创造空位机会。克塔当然不是约基奇 (Jokic)，但能够多传一次球，让他队友的比赛变得轻松许多。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
当然，如果布朗没有打出MVP级别的表现，这一切都无从谈起。这位运动能力出众的侧翼球员似乎每年都在突破自己的上限，而本赛季就是最好的例证。布朗目前所有中距离投篮的命中率高达48%，更具体地说，在16英尺到三分线之间的区域，他的命中率达到了惊人的52%。这可是巅峰克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) / 德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) 级别的中投魔法，而他出手的产量或许才是最重要的统计数据：布朗有55%的出手来自中距离，这一比例在所有侧翼球员中高居第98百分位。他之前的生涯最高纪录是去年创下的41%，而在此之前，他从未有超过40%的出手来自该区域。
从场面上看，布朗的武器库并没有增加太多新招式。相反，他只是简单地成为了一名精英级别的得分手，利用自己的运动能力和力量到达他最喜欢的得分点。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
虽然布朗无疑已经将自己变成了联盟中最好的中距离射手之一，但我仍然不确定他是否能继续保持这种历史级别的命中率——尤其是当我们分析的数据样本还不到半个赛季。在球队层面上，凯尔特人的三分命中率也远超预期。看到波士顿投出37.3%（联盟第9）的三分命中率并不奇怪，但他们是联盟中底角三分出手最少的球队（7.2%），这就有些令人费解了。简而言之，马祖拉 (Mazzulla) 的球队投出了联盟中最难的三分球，并且仍然保持着精英级别的命中率。毫无疑问，凯尔特人拥有联盟顶尖的投射天赋，但他们能否在几乎不投底角三分的情况下继续保持超过37%的命中率，还有待观察。
即使出现一些状态回落，波士顿至少也将保持联盟前十的进攻和平均水准的防守。这在东部绝对是一支板上钉钉的季后赛球队，在季后赛对决中，我敢说只有活塞和尼克斯能稳赢他们。如果布朗和球队能延续他们火热的投篮手感，并且塔图姆能够回归（即使只发挥75%的功力），凯尔特人完全有可能重返联盟顶级强队的行列。
这些都是基于小样本数据的许多“如果”，但对于一个“过渡年”来说，本赛季已经是一个巨大的成功。
废除吧，65场规则！
我曾经是65场规则的坚定支持者，但很明显，这项规则已经不合时宜了。这并非因为我认为约基奇在少打15场比赛的情况下应该战胜谢伊赢得MVP，而是因为即便评委们有选择的权利，他们也不会那样投票：1977-78赛季的比尔·沃顿 (Bill Walton) 是历史上唯一一位在82场常规赛中出场少于65场而赢得该奖项的球员。
纵观历史，65场规则对像年度最佳防守球员（DPOY）这类奖项的影响更大。历史上曾有三位球员在82场常规赛中出场少于65场而赢得DPOY，并且他们都出现在过去十二年里：2014-15赛季的科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)（64场）、2017-18赛季的鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)（56场），以及2022-23赛季的小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.)（63场）。考虑到文班在防守端比联盟中任何其他球员的影响力都要大得多，如果因为他只打了63场比赛，而将DPOY颁给打了72场的切特 (Chet) 或戈贝尔，那将是荒谬至极的。
NBA最佳阵容的评选也将受到影响。自2013-14赛季以来，只有18位入选最佳阵容的球员出场次数少于65场——在排除因新冠疫情缩水的赛季后，8个符合条件的赛季里平均每年有2.25名球员。有趣的是，其中9名球员来自2021-22和2022-23赛季，恰好是在该规则实施之前。
此外，2022-23赛季的扬尼斯 (Giannis) 和2013-14赛季的CP3是唯二入选最佳阵容一阵的球员，而他们也分别出战了63场和62场比赛。换句话说，评委们一直都将出场次数纳入考量，并且除了特殊情况外，大多数人似乎都已将65场作为一条不成文的门槛。
那么，没有比本赛季更适合允许这些例外的时机了。如果谢伊可能成为所有最佳阵容（不仅仅是一阵）中唯一的前五球员，这简直毫无道理。约基奇、扬尼斯、卢卡和文班亚马如果都只打63场比赛，或许不配入选一阵，但他们绝对应该至少入选三阵，而不是让给像打了80场比赛的德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdjia)（德尼，无意冒犯）这样的球员。
更重要的是，这些奖项对球员具有金钱价值。我们已经看到泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 在两年前为了有资格获得他的超级顶薪合同而匆忙复出，结果他花了一整年的时间才恢复到自己的状态。是的，这激励了像哈利伯顿这样的明星球员出战，但我认为，观看任何球员带伤作战对比赛观赏性的损害远大于其益处。
现在是时候让亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 废除这项过时的规则，并将合同奖金与个人奖项脱钩了。
本周，请务必阅读Jeje关于特雷·杨的交易可能如何影响马刺的文章！他非常出色地分析了亚特兰大那些由圣安东尼奥拥有的无保护选秀权可能带来的潜在影响。
希望大家在2026年都有一个美好的开始！
所有数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: OKC’s skid, Boston’s success, and a discussion on the 65-game rule
Around the NBA: OKC’s skid, Boston’s success, and a discussion on the 65-game rule
The Thunder are frauds!
That’s what r/nba and the talking heads are having you believe, and it’s not hard to see why following a 6-6 stretch.
Still, the OKC discourse has swung too far in the opposite direction. Remember, they were only one of two teams (along with the 73-win Warriors) to ever start a season 25-1, so the talk about breaking the all-time wins record was well earned. That’s obviously out the window now, and some old demons have fuelled their recent “struggles.”
So, how worried should we actually be about OKC?
Let’s find out.
Is OKC “cooked”?
Since that fateful first loss to the Spurs, the Thunder’s net rating is “just” +4.9, good for sixth league-wide over that span. Impressively, they’ve still been 4th on defense (109.6 DRTG) even while opponents have shot 38.5% from three, which is the 5th highest rate during that stretch. OKC’s defensive rebound percentage has also dipped to just 69.4% in the past month (20th) after it was 73.3% (5th) during their scorching 25-1 run, and this will be a stat to monitor given that it’s the only area they might be mediocre in defensively. Still, it’s worth noting that Isaiah Hartenstein has missed over half their games during this recent “slump,” and the fact that the Thunder have still been top 5 in DRTG shows that they have a legitimate argument as the greatest defense in history.
The offense, however, is another story. OKC is just 18th in ORTG over the past month (114.4) and has made just 32.1% of their threes (27th) after starting the year converting at a 37.9% rate (5th). The Thunder’s free-throw rate has also dipped from 23.9% (7th highest) during their 25-1 run to 21.1% (14th) in their recent run. That might not seem like a big difference, but it’s come almost entirely at the expense of SGA.
In his first 23 games, the reigning MVP averaged 10.2 free throw attempts a game, which dipped all the way down to 6.5 attempts over his next 13 matches. That latter number does not include the 28 free throws he’s shot over his last two games, and a downturn in free throws hasn’t been a league-wide trend, either: neither Luka nor Deni (the two players who lead the league in free throw attempts) has seen a dip in their attempts, so I’m inclined to believe that Shai will get back to his usual numbers, too.
Moreover, it’s quite evident that a big part of OKC’s recent skid is mental. We’ve reached the dog days of the season where even the best teams are finding it difficult to stay fully motivated. Dropping three demoralizing games to the Spurs surely also made the Thunder realize that the all-time wins record is out of reach, and it’s understandable if they lost some hunger as a result.
On top of that, reintegrating JDub into the lineup has hurt more than it’s helped. Not because he’s a bad player, but rather his return has disrupted the flow OKC had to start the season, and they’ve needed to carve out 15 extra shots to a player who’s still working his way back from an injury that prevented him from dribbling and shooting for four months.
If anything, I actually feel better about the Thunder after digging through these numbers. Even if their own 3-point shooting doesn’t return to elite levels, that should be offset by JDub getting back up to speed and Shai’s whistle normalizing. Defensively, OKC could get even better (if that’s even possible) once Hartenstein returns and opponents cool off from three, and they’ll rediscover some of their lost motivation as the playoffs get closer.
All these factors indicate that OKC will be just fine, and there shouldn’t be any doubt that they’re still the team to beat.
Are the Celtics the new “Zombie Heat”?
The calendar has flipped to 2026, and Boston remains elite.
If anyone predicted that, they must’ve studied at LeBron’s School of Deception.
Currently sporting a +7.2 net rating (4th) on the back of the second-best offense (123.2) and 16th-ranked defense (116.0), the Celtics are somehow on pace to win over 50 games without Jayson Tatum. Offensively, they’ve played the same as always, by limiting their turnover rate (12.3%, 2nd league-wide) and not caring about drawing fouls: the Celtics are once again dead last in free-throw rate at 16.9%. Unsurprisingly, Boston has continued bombing away from three, with 43.9% of their attempts coming from deep, good for the third-highest rate in the league.
One major change, though, is the increase in their offensive rebounding. The Celtics’ 32% ORB is 5th league-wide and a big boost from the 27.6% rate they had last year. Swapping out floor spacing bigs in Porzingis and Horford for a rim-runner like Neemias Queta will do that for any team, and he’s been the biggest reason why Boston now ranks third in second-chance points (17.7 per game), an area where they’ve been mediocre throughout the Brown/Tatum era.
Queta has great positioning instincts and fluidity (especially for a 7-footer), which he uses to put himself in the best spots to grab boards and finish in one motion. He showcased that playing against Minnesota this year by finishing with 18 rebounds against Rudy Gobert, who was called for a goaltend on the play below.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
Queta isn’t just a finisher, either. He’s a good passer for a big and often sets up teammates for open looks. Queta is certainly no Jokic, but being able to make that extra pass makes his teammates’ lives much easier.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
Still, none of that would matter if Brown wasn’t playing at an MVP level. The athletic wing seemingly breaks through his ceiling every year, and this current season is the best example of that. Brown is currently making 48% of all his mid-rangers, and even more specifically, a staggering 52% between 16 feet and the three-point line. That is prime Chris Paul/DeMar DeRozan levels of mid-range wizardry, and the volume he’s doing this on might be the most important stat of all: Brown is attempting 55% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 98th percentile among all wings. His previous career high was 41% set last year, and before then, he’d never attempted more than 40% of his shots from that area.
The eye test doesn’t indicate that Brown’s added a plethora of moves to his bag. Rather, he’s simply become an elite shotmaker who uses athleticism and strength to get to his favorite spots.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) January 11, 2026
While there’s no doubt that Brown’s turned himself into one of the best midrange shooters in the league, I’m still not sure if he can continue converting at all-time levels — especially when we’re operating with less than half a season of data. On a team level, the Celtics are also shooting way above expected on threes. It isn’t surprising to see Boston make 37.3% (9th best) of their triples, but attempting the fewest from the corner (7.2%) raises some eyebrows. Simply put, Mazzulla’s squad has taken the most difficult threes in the league and still made them at an elite rate. There’s no doubt that the Celtics have some of the best shooting talent in the league, but it’s yet to be seen if they can continue converting on over 37% while barely taking any from the corners.
Even if some regression hits, Boston at the very least will remain a top-10 offense with an average defense. That’s a surefire playoff team in the East, and the Pistons and Knicks are the only teams I would confidently pick over them in a postseason matchup. If Brown and the team continue their torrid shooting and Tatum returns (even operating at 75%), the Celtics could very well vault themselves back into that top tier again.
That’s a lot of ifs based on small sample sizes, but for a “gap” year, this season is already a resounding success.
65-game rule, be gone!
I used to be a big proponent of the 65-game rule, but it’s clear that it has worn out its welcome. That’s not because I believe Jokic should win MVP over Shai while playing 15 fewer games, but rather that the voters wouldn’t have voted that way even if they had the option to: Bill Walton in 1977-78 is the only player in history to win the award while playing fewer than 65 games over an 82-game season.
Looking through history, the 65-game rule has a bigger impact on awards such as DPOY. There have been three players in history who’ve won DPOY playing less than 65 games in an 82-game season, and they’ve all come within the last dozen years: Kawhi Leonard in 2014-15 (64), Rudy Gobert in 2017-18 (56), and Jaren Jackson Jr. in 2022-23 (63). Given how much more impactful Wemby is defensively than every other player in the league, it’ll be blasphemous to award DPOY to a Chet or Gobert because they played 72 games to Wemby’s 63.
All-NBA teams will be impacted as well. Since 2013-14, there have only been 18 All-NBA players who appeared in fewer than 65 games — an average of 2.25 players over 8 eligible seasons when accounting for the COVID-shortened campaigns. Interestingly, 9 of those players are from the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, right before the rule was implemented.
Moreover, Giannis in 2022-23 and CP3 in 2013-14 are the only two players who made it onto the First Team, and they still played in 63 and 62 games, respectively. In other words, voters have always taken games played into account, and most seem to have set 65 games as an unofficial cut-off anyway, outside of exceptional circumstances.
Well, there is no better time to allow those exceptions than this season. It just doesn’t make sense for Shai to potentially be the only top 5 player across every All-NBA squad, let alone just the first team. Jokic, Giannis, Luka and Wemby might not deserve to make the first team if they all play 63 games, but they sure deserve to be on the third team at the very least, over the likes of an 80-game appearance from Deni Avdjia (no offense, Deni).
More importantly, these awards hold monetary value to players. We’ve already seen Tyrese Haliburton rush back from an injury two years ago to be eligible for his supermax, and it took him a full year before looking like himself again. Yes, it incentivized a star like Haliburton to play, but I’d argue that watching any player fight through an injury hurts the product more than it helps.
It’s time for Adam Silver to get rid of this archaic rule and sever the tie between contractual bonuses and individual awards.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on how the Trae Young trade could impact the Spurs! He does a great job of breaking down the potential implications of Atlanta’s unprotected picks that are owned by San Antonio.
I hope everyone’s having a great start to 2026!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock