By Law Murray | The Athletic, 2026-01-12 15:27:22
本周推荐专辑：Men At Work乐队《Business As Usual》（1981年）
现在所有人都已重返工作岗位，我们也得以进入冬季最难熬的阶段。低温、大风；雪景不再赏心悦目；“放鸽子”这事儿也从天气预报扩展到了你周末的计划。这是一年中我最不喜欢的时节。
幸运的是，我们还有篮球。而且不仅仅是交易（尽管你们中有些人终于在这方面得到了满足）！本赛季尚未过半，但在本周，我们将回顾一下BetMGM在季前赛给出的胜场数预测（你懂的，就是那些常规的期望值，而不是我在第一周给出的大胆预测）。
本周也标志着全美电视直播赛程的全面回归。应该说是国际直播，奥兰多魔术队和孟菲斯灰熊队将在欧洲讨论关于德斯蒙德·贝恩的交易。俄克拉荷马城雷霆队本周有机会证明他们或许能击败圣安东尼奥马刺队，而金州勇士队则有几场引人瞩目的主场比赛。
补充说明：本实力榜不仅仅是对每支球队进行排名。我们将保留球队的等级分层，球队会根据表现升级或降级。每周将有五个等级：
- 顶级争冠者 – 固定五支球队，他们是联盟的翘楚
- 状态正佳 – 可能是一支球队，也可能是七支球队
- 中游徘徊 – 别和迪士尼世界的那个“气泡”搞混了。指联盟中游集团
- 亟待提高 – 并非联盟打得最差的球队，但仍有大量工作要做
- 联盟垫底 – 排名末尾的球队
实力榜看点须知：
- 这是我的主观排名。我会参考各种客观指标，但最终决定权在我。
- 这份排名不仅是对过去一周的回顾——我们也在展望未来，因此它是两者的平衡。
- 排名是主观的，但没有偏见。实力榜不带任何个人议程，我们力求建立一个包容的、任人唯贤的体系。
- 这份排名所具备的一个特质：“冷酷的侵略性。”
- 请享受比赛，也请享受这份排名！
在The Athletic第13周的NBA实力榜中，我们将重温每支球队的季前赛胜场数预测。所有胜负记录及其他统计数据均截至周日比赛结束。
第一梯队：顶级争冠者
1. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (33-7)
上期排名： 1
过去一周战绩： 负于黄蜂、胜于爵士、客场胜于灰熊、胜于热火
进攻效率： 118.0 (第五名)
防守效率： 105.4 (第一名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 62.5
目前预计胜场数： 68
雷霆队以24胜1负的开局，在NBA杯前引发了一些热议。如今，雷霆队每周都会输球，所以我们不必再将他们视为70胜的威胁了。话虽如此，他们仍然是联盟最佳球队，并且以相当大的优势领先于博彩公司的普遍预测。不过，本周将是他们最终击败维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 领衔的马刺队的好时机。
2. 底特律活塞 (28-10)
上期排名： 2
过去一周战绩： 胜于尼克斯、胜于公牛、负于快船
进攻效率： 116.4 (第九名)
防守效率： 109.7 (第二名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 46.5
目前预计胜场数： 60
活塞队本有望以不败战绩结束这令人印象深刻的一周，但在极其人手短缺的情况下，他们未能守住第四节对阵快船时的两位数领先优势。尽管如此，底特律通过羞辱去年春天终结他们赛季的尼克斯队，以及在对阵公牛时展现其阵容深度，已经证明了自己。对于这支角色球员配置合理的活塞队而言，通往东部头号种子的道路非常清晰，他们连续第二个赛季轻松超越了季前赛的预期。但他们是否会用部分阵容深度去换来另一位能改变局势的球员呢？
3. 圣安东尼奥马刺 (27-12)
上期排名： 3
过去一周战绩： 客场负于灰熊、胜于湖人、客场胜于凯尔特人、客场负于森林狼
进攻效率： 116.6 (第八名)
防守效率： 111.2 (第三名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 44.5
目前预计胜场数： 57
本赛季开始前，人们很容易对马刺队感到乐观。但他们的进步远超预期，他们是联盟防守最好的球队之一，并且以前所未有的方式教训了卫冕冠军雷霆队。自从上次击败俄克拉荷马城以来，马刺队的状态并不算太好，自圣诞节以来战绩为4胜5负。
4. 丹佛掘金 (26-13)
上期排名： 6
过去一周战绩： 客场胜于76人、客场胜于凯尔特人、负于老鹰、胜于雄鹿
进攻效率： 122.1 (第一名)
防守效率： 116.8 (第23名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 53.5
目前预计胜场数： 55
本赛季，丹佛队由尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić)、阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon)、克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun) 和新援卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cameron Johnson) 组成的四人组仅共同出战了10场比赛。这四名球员要么正在处理伤病，要么刚刚从长达数周的伤病中恢复。然而，掘金队不仅略微超出了预期，还拥有联盟第一的进攻火力。在约基奇膝伤期间，丹佛队以4胜3负的战绩顽强挺了过来，尽管贾马尔·默里 (Jamal Murray) 表现出色，但掘金队本周在没有默里的情况下也赢下了多场比赛。
5. 明尼苏达森林狼 (26-14)
上期排名： 9
过去一周战绩： 胜于热火、胜于骑士、客场负于骑士、胜于马刺
进攻效率： 117.2 (第六名)
防守效率： 112.6 (第七名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 49.5
目前预计胜场数： 53
森林狼队已经连续两次进入西部决赛，本赛季初的表现也略超预期。他们开始积累对阵胜率超过五成球队的胜利，包括周日逆转战胜马刺队的比赛。他们是联盟中仅有的五支攻防效率均排名前十的球队之一，并且在关键时刻也表现出色。
第二梯队：状态正佳
6. 波士顿凯尔特人 (24-14)
上期排名： 4
过去一周战绩： 胜于公牛、负于掘金、胜于猛龙、负于马刺
进攻效率： 121.9 (第二名)
防守效率： 114.5 (第16名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 41.5
目前预计胜场数： 52
所有人都预料到凯尔特人本赛季会有不同程度的下滑。波士顿虽未占据东部榜首，但除此之外，他们的表现已经超出了预期。凯尔特人刚刚经历表现起伏的一周，杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 在对阵快船砍下50分后，在波士顿四场主场比赛中投篮命中率仅为38.5%，场均失误4.8次，波士顿最终取得2胜2负的战绩，而他本人更是在周末结束时招致了罚款。
7. 菲尼克斯太阳 (24-15)
上期排名： 7
过去一周战绩： 客场负于火箭、客场胜于灰熊、胜于尼克斯、胜于奇才
进攻效率： 114.6 (第14名)
防守效率： 111.9 (第五名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 30.5
目前预计胜场数： 50
菲尼克斯是本赛季NBA最大的惊喜，这支球队在不止一个方面都与上赛季的快船队相似。太阳队上赛季虽理论上拥有顶级天赋，但表现却相当糟糕，他们经历了一些“减法补强”，尽管凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 提醒了他们，队里仍然没有他。即使本赛季至今杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green) 总共只打了五节比赛，太阳队在进攻端依然挺了过来，同时防守端也恢复到了蒙蒂·威廉姆斯 (Monty Williams) 时代的水平。在格林缺阵期间，德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 撑起了局面，但他需要格林来为他分担压力，就像去年此时在洛杉矶的詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 需要科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 回归一样。
8. 纽约尼克斯 (25-14)
上期排名： 8
过去一周战绩： 客场负于活塞、胜于快船、客场负于太阳、客场胜于开拓者
进攻效率： 120.3 (第三名)
防守效率： 115.8 (第18名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 53.5
目前预计胜场数： 53
尼克斯队情况尚可。他们差不多处在人们预期的位置。但这也意味着他们没有太多超出预期的表现。而且他们是最新一支似乎仍未从NBA杯的后遗症中恢复过来的球队，自离开拉斯维加斯以来战绩为7胜7负。2024年的湖人队在赢得NBA杯后立刻遭遇了10胜16负的低谷，而上赛季的雄鹿队在调整好状态前也经历了3胜5负。对纽约来说，好消息是，在三月初之前，他们不会再有像目前这次西部之旅这么漫长的客场赛程了。
第三梯队：中游徘徊
9. 休斯顿火箭 (22-14)
上期排名： 5
过去一周战绩： 胜于太阳、客场负于开拓者、客场负于开拓者、客场负于国王
进攻效率： 119.8 (第四名)
防守效率： 112.6 (第八名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 52.5
目前预计胜场数： 50
只要把杜兰特加入一支顶级防守强队，一切问题就都解决了……对吗？看来弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 的缺阵给休斯顿带来的压力甚至比预想的还要大，值得关注的是休斯顿是否会进行交易来给杜兰特一些喘息的机会。艾米·乌度卡 (Ime Udoka) 越来越多地找到理由批评火箭队，但在讨论让37岁的杜兰特打那么长时间是多么不明智时，他简直是明知故问。
克利夫兰骑士队后卫多诺万·米切尔本赛季场均得到29.8分。(Bruce Kluckhohn / Imagn Images)
10. 克利夫兰骑士 (22-18)
上期排名： 13
过去一周战绩： 客场胜于步行者、客场负于森林狼、胜于森林狼
进攻效率： 116.8 (第七名)
防守效率： 114.3 (第15名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 56.5
目前预计胜场数： 45.1
上个赛季对骑士队来说是特殊的，出现一些回归平庸的状况也在意料之中。但尽管多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 打出了一个特别的赛季，他们现在也只是处于中游水平。克利夫兰在与森林狼的主客场系列赛中各取一胜，他们希望能够延续本周三场比赛得分均不低于120分的进攻势头。
11. 洛杉矶湖人 (23-13)
上期排名： 10
过去一周战绩： 客场胜于鹈鹕、客场负于马刺、负于雄鹿
进攻效率： 116.1 (第11名)
防守效率： 116.8 (第24名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 46.5
目前预计胜场数： 52
恭喜湖人队，他们证明了自己在输球时有能力不被对手打花。这是对湖人队成为本赛季最后一支输掉关键时刻比赛的球队的积极解读，在那场比赛中，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 在对位勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 时打出了关键表现，使得詹姆斯整个赛季以来第一次抱怨裁判。在关键时刻的出色战绩让湖人队在积分榜上处于一个舒适的位置，并超出了季前赛的预期，但如果关键时刻的比赛结果回归均值，那么他们就要开始紧张了。
12. 多伦多猛龙 (24-16)
上期排名： 11
过去一周战绩： 胜于老鹰、客场胜于黄蜂、客场负于凯尔特人、胜于76人
进攻效率： 113.9 (第19名)
防守效率： 112.1 (第六名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 39.5
目前预计胜场数： 49
猛龙队在RJ·巴雷特 (RJ Barrett) 出战时战绩为16胜7负，缺阵时为8胜9负，在挥霍了14分的领先优势后，他们险胜费城76人队。本赛季，当巴雷特与斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 和布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 共同在场的363分钟里，多伦多队仅净胜对手7分。但在其余三人不同时在场的1572分钟里，多伦多队净胜对手68分。达尔科·拉贾科维奇 (Darko Rajaković) 在围绕核心球员使用阵容深度和防守方面做得相当不错。
13. 费城76人 (21-16)
上期排名： 14
过去一周战绩： 负于掘金、胜于奇才、客场胜于魔术、客场负于猛龙
进攻效率： 114.8 (第13名)
防守效率： 113.1 (第11名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 43.5
目前预计胜场数： 47
在上个灾难性的赛季之后，费城队本有望迎来反弹，目前为止他们也确实做到了。但76人队仍有太多比赛让人难以信任。上周一主场输给一支舟车劳顿、人手短缺的掘金队是一次错失良机，尤其是在费城队阵容齐整的情况下。而且，泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey) 仍然为这支球队承担着沉重的负担。我不敢想象，如果马克西不得不像乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 和保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 那样缺席一段时间，76人队会是何种境地。
14. 金州勇士 (21-19)
上期排名： 15
过去一周战绩： 客场负于快船、胜于雄鹿、胜于国王、负于老鹰
进攻效率： 114.5 (第15名)
防守效率： 112.6 (第九名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 47.5
目前预计胜场数： 43
勇士队本周战绩平平，这与他们整个赛季的表现如出一辙。金州队没有任何一次超过四场的连胜或连败。勇士队正处在一种舒适的不适区，正好处于西部的中游。只有五支球队的关键时刻输球场次比勇士队多，如果他们在关键时刻的表现能达到平均水平，他们的胜场数就能达到季前赛的预期。金州队无疑是表现不佳，但就像上赛季一样，如果他们在完成一笔交易后有所改善，也不要感到惊讶。对某些人来说，这简直像过节一样，因为乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 最早在周四就可以被交易了。
15. 奥兰多魔术 (22-18)
上期排名： 16
过去一周战绩： 客场负于奇才、客场胜于篮网、负于76人、胜于鹈鹕
进攻效率： 114.4 (第16名)
防守效率： 113.4 (第12名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 51.5
目前预计胜场数： 45
这本应是魔术队走向成熟的赛季。开局不顺拖累了奥兰多，尽管希望仍在，即魔术队能让他们薪水最高的四名球员获得更多出场时间。本赛季，魔术队仅有11场比赛是保罗·班切罗 (Paolo Banchero)、弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner)、杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 和德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 四人全部出战的。我预计魔术队在赛季后半段的表现会比目前为止更好。
16. 迈阿密热火 (20-19)
上期排名： 12
过去一周战绩： 客场负于森林狼、对阵公牛比赛延期、客场负于步行者、客场负于雷霆
进攻效率： 113.2 (第22名)
防守效率： 111.9 (第四名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 37.5
目前预计胜场数： 42
对迈阿密来说，这是糟糕的一周，甚至在芝加哥热身准备比赛，结果却被告知比赛延期。热火队本赛季至今已有四次至少三场的连胜，也有三次至少三场的连败。迈阿密重塑球队特质的尝试值得钦佩，但他们在东部仍是一支平均水平的球队。泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro) 和诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 的配合很尴尬，尤其是当这两人不与戴维恩·米切尔 (Davion Mitchell) 一同在场时。
第四梯队：亟待提高
17. 亚特兰大老鹰 (20-21)
上期排名： 18
过去一周战绩： 客场负于猛龙、胜于鹈鹕、客场胜于掘金、客场胜于勇士
进攻效率： 114.2 (第17名)
防守效率： 114.2 (第14名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 47.5
目前预计胜场数： 40
我曾以为老鹰队在特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 与克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porziņģis) 搭档后会迎来一个伟大的赛季。结果这两人总共只一起打了51分钟，而老鹰队在这51分钟里丢了157分。本赛季杨在场时，亚特兰大表现糟糕，并已经将他的合同拆分，换来了处于合同年的CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum)（他以替补身份完成首秀）和三分射手科里·基斯珀特 (Corey Kispert)。亚特兰大继续兜售其阵容中的球员是合乎逻辑的。
18. 孟菲斯灰熊 (17-22)
上期排名： 19
过去一周战绩： 胜于马刺、负于太阳、负于雷霆、胜于篮网
进攻效率： 112.6 (第24名)
防守效率： 114.0 (第13名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 39.5
目前预计胜场数： 36
如今，我对灰熊队有三点预期：他们会对雷霆取得巨大领先，他们会挥霍掉领先优势，以及贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 不会在场上。这也是莫兰特和小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.) 在场上合作效果最差的一年，当他们共同出战时，灰熊队的战绩仅为惨淡的6胜12负。而本赛季当这两人不一起打球时，孟菲斯实际上是一支胜率过半的球队，但这并不理想，考虑到这两名球员本赛季的薪水加起来超过7000万美元。
19. 密尔沃基雄鹿 (17-22)
上期排名： 20
过去一周战绩： 客场负于勇士、客场胜于湖人、客场负于掘金
进攻效率： 113.5 (第20名)
防守效率： 115.7 (第17名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 43.5
目前预计胜场数： 36
人们预计雄鹿队本赛季会所有退步，但博彩公司的共识是他们仍会是一支胜多负少的球队。他们并非一支胜多负少的球队。扬尼斯·阿德托昆博之于2026年的雄鹿，就如同凯文·杜兰特之于2025年的太阳。当然，密尔沃基与其当家球星之间的关系要比菲尼克斯和杜兰特的关系要牢固得多。这里的比较只是关乎胜负；当阿德托昆博出战时，雄鹿队战绩为14胜11负，而他缺阵时为3胜12负。
快船队开局不顺，但詹姆斯·哈登和科怀·伦纳德最近找到了状态。Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images
20. 洛杉矶快船 (15-23)
上期排名： 21
过去一周战绩： 胜于勇士、客场负于尼克斯、客场胜于篮网、客场胜于活塞
进攻效率： 115.3 (第12名)
防守效率： 116.9 (第26名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 49.5
目前预计胜场数： 32
许多人对洛杉矶6胜21负的开局反应，就好像这才是大家预期的那支快船队。但这向来都是无稽之谈，只是人们出于各种原因希望看到快船队本赛季失败而已。那些质疑者也因此得到了验证。洛杉矶队近几周已经开始打得像一支仍拥有高水平的科怀·伦纳德和詹姆斯·哈登的球队了，但他们要达到常规赛预期的希望在目前看来相当渺茫。
21. 波特兰开拓者 (19-21)
上期排名： 22
过去一周战绩： 胜于爵士、胜于火箭、胜于火箭、负于尼克斯
进攻效率： 113.5 (第21名)
防守效率： 116.0 (第19名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 35.5
目前预计胜场数： 39
波特兰未能击败尼克斯，赛季最长的五连胜也因此终结，让开拓者错失了胜率达到五成的机会。但并非全无希望。控球后卫朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 因小腿伤势缺阵近两个月后终于回归阵容，而德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 的表现已经让防守者非常头疼，以至于他不得不就自己高频率站上罚球线的能力做出回应。
22. 夏洛特黄蜂 (14-25)
上期排名： 24
过去一周战绩： 客场胜于雷霆、负于猛龙、负于步行者、客场胜于爵士
进攻效率： 116.2 (第10名)
防守效率： 116.4 (第21名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 27.5
目前预计胜场数： 29
总的来说，黄蜂队的表现与预期相符。但在他们的14场胜利中，有5场是以超过20分的分差获胜，包括一场对卫冕冠军的痛击和一场55分屠杀爵士的比赛。而在之前的整整三个赛季里，黄蜂队总共只有四场比赛赢了超过20分。当这支球队打出化学反应时，凭借其得分天赋，他们可以是毁灭性的。
23. 芝加哥公牛 (18-20)
上期排名： 17
过去一周战绩： 客场负于凯尔特人、客场负于活塞、对阵热火比赛延期、胜于独行侠
进攻效率： 113.2 (第23名)
防守效率： 116.9 (第25名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 33.5
目前预计胜场数： 39
芝加哥坚持走平庸路线，反而让他们超出了季前赛的低预期。这就是公牛队如今的处境：得到一些明褒实贬的赞美，因为他们的阵容毫无亮点，也因为他们无法将偶尔的成功持续更长时间。
24. 达拉斯独行侠 (14-25)
上期排名： 23
过去一周战绩： 客场胜于国王、客场负于爵士、客场负于公牛
进攻效率： 109.0 (第28名)
防守效率： 112.8 (第10名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 41.5
目前预计胜场数： 29
在预测这支独行侠队时，博彩公司和全美直播方都对尼科（哈里森）的建队思路深信不疑。有些人甚至认为凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 到现在也该复出了。然而，独行侠队现在的情况是：他们伤病缠身的大个子们无法出战，休赛期最重要的自由球员签约丹吉洛·拉塞尔 (D’Angelo Russell) 自感恩节以来没有一场比赛出场时间达到20分钟，而库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 则在打出精彩比赛和表现平平之间摇摆。
25. 布鲁克林篮网 (11-25)
上期排名： 25
过去一周战绩： 负于魔术、负于快船、客场负于灰熊
进攻效率： 111.9 (第25名)
防守效率： 116.5 (第22名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 19.5
目前预计胜场数： 25
我无意冒犯，但本赛季当卡梅伦·托马斯 (Cam Thomas) 出战时，篮网队战绩为3胜12负。这相当于一个赛季16胜的水平，而当托马斯不打时，篮网队则处于一个赛季31胜的水平。布鲁克林实力不济，本赛季也无意争胜。但在托马斯回归之前，布鲁克林建立起来的防守努力，随着他再次稳定出场又回到了摆烂水平，感觉布鲁克林会很乐意交易走他。
第五梯队：联盟垫底
26. 犹他爵士 (13-25)
上期排名： 26
过去一周战绩： 客场负于开拓者、客场负于雷霆、胜于独行侠、负于黄蜂
进攻效率： 114.0 (第18名)
防守效率： 122.0 (第30名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 18.5
目前预计胜场数： 28
爵士队是上赛季联盟最差的球队。劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 更多的出场和基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George) 的显著进步帮助犹他赢了一些比赛，并打造了一套还算过得去的进攻体系。但现在爵士队开始每周让马尔卡宁轮休一场，并且开始让一些为摆烂而选的球员上场。最低谷是周六在主场对阵黄蜂队的比赛，他们在第一节就落后31分，最终输了55分。
27. 印第安纳步行者 (8-31)
上期排名： 29
过去一周战绩： 负于骑士、客场胜于黄蜂、胜于热火
进攻效率： 108.6 (第29名)
防守效率： 116.2 (第20名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 37.5
目前预计胜场数： 17
祝贺里克·卡莱尔 (Rick Carlisle) 达成执教生涯1000胜。不过，没人想到卡莱尔直到一月份才实现这一里程碑。在泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 接受跟腱手术和迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 转投密尔沃基后，人们曾预计印第安纳会退步并难以进入季后赛。但步行者队反而被阵容毫无稳定性以及球员表现不佳所拖垮。
28. 萨克拉门托国王 (9-30)
上期排名： 30
过去一周战绩： 负于独行侠、客场负于勇士、胜于火箭
进攻效率： 108.5 (第30名)
防守效率： 119.7 (第28名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 32.5
目前预计胜场数： 19
尽管国王队在本赛季开始前并不被看好，但看到他们如此糟糕还是令人震惊。他们本赛季已经有20场比赛输了10分以上。尽管队中有很多进攻型球员，他们却是联盟进攻最差的球队。然而，他们一半的胜利是来自对阵金州勇士、丹佛掘金、明尼苏达森林狼以及现在两次击败休斯顿火箭的比赛。
29. 新奥尔良鹈鹕 (9-32)
上期排名： 28
过去一周战绩： 负于湖人、客场负于老鹰、客场胜于奇才、客场负于魔术
进攻效率： 111.7 (第26名)
防守效率： 118.9 (第27名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 30.5
目前预计胜场数： 18
人们对鹈鹕队的期望本就不高。但他们如今陷入混乱，目前只有奇才队和国王队与他们一样，在攻防两端都处于联盟垫底的五支球队之列。而且与奇才和国王不同的是，鹈鹕队阵中有一位处于职业生涯黄金时期的状元秀。蔡恩·威廉森 (Zion Williamson) 和德里克·奎因 (Derik Queen) 无法共存，而乔丹·普尔 (Jordan Poole) 也无法与杰里迈亚·菲尔斯 (Jeremiah Fears) 搭档。
30. 华盛顿奇才 (10-28)
上期排名： 27
过去一周战绩： 胜于魔术、客场负于76人、负于鹈鹕、客场负于太阳
进攻效率： 109.5 (第27名)
防守效率： 120.7 (第29名)
季前赛预测胜场数： 20.5
目前预计胜场数： 22
我上周提到，CJ·麦科勒姆得分太多了，奇才队需要一名控球后卫来帮助队里其他年轻核心球员成长。好吧，在麦科勒姆为球队效力的最后七场比赛中，他以接近50/40/90的命中率场均得到近20分，并带领奇才赢下了其中五场。停止计票！华盛顿不仅交易了麦科勒姆，还得到了一名控卫——杨，他本赛季可能在华盛顿完成首秀，仅仅是因为球员出场政策带来了更严格的审查。奇才队曾表示他们希望在华盛顿拥有一位明星，杨当然符合这个条件，尽管杨无法阻止华盛顿在球队下限最早于下赛季重返东部中游水平之前，在乐透区再做最后一搏。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA Power Rankings: Timberwolves are contenders; preseason over/under check-in
NBA Power Rankings: Timberwolves are contenders; preseason over/under check-in
Album of the Week: “Business As Usual,” Men At Work (1981)
Everyone is back to work now, so we can get on with the nasty part of winter. Low temperatures, high winds; the snow isn’t nice to look at anymore; and flaking has extended past the precipitation and onto those plans you had at the end of the week. It’s my least favorite time of the year.
Fortunately, there’s basketball. And not just the trades (although some of you finally were placated there)! The season has not yet reached its midpoint, but this week, we’ll check in on those preseason over/unders from BetMGM (you know, the conventional expectations, not the deep shots I put out in Week 1).
This week marks a return to a full national television schedule as well. Make that international, with the Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies discussing the Desmond Bane trade in Europe. The Oklahoma City Thunder get to show that maybe they can beat the San Antonio Spurs this week, while the Golden State Warriors get a couple of notable home games.
Fine print: These Power Rankings won’t just rank every team. We’ll retain the tiers that teams will be promoted into and relegated out of. There will be five tiers each week:
- Top Contenders – Locked at five, these are the class of the league
- In a Good Place – Could be one team, could be seven teams
- The Bubble – Not to be confused with Walt Disney World. The middle of the pack
- Not the Tier to Fear – Not playing the worst ball in the league, but with a lot of work to do
- Basement Floor – Bringing up the rear
What to expect from Power Rankings:
- These are my subjective rankings. I will consider a variety of objective measures, but it’s my final call.
- These rankings are not just a review of the past week — we are projecting forward as well, so it is a balance of the two.
- These are subjective, but not biased. There are no agendas in the Power Rankings, and we strive for an inclusive meritocracy
- The one quality that these rankings possess: “Ruthless aggression.”
- Enjoy the games, and enjoy the rankings, please!
For Week 13 of The Athletic NBA Power Rankings, we will revisit preseason over/unders for each team. Win-loss records and other statistical data are through Sunday’s action.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (33-7)
Last ranking: 1
In the last week: L vs CHA, W vs UTA, W at MEM, W vs MIA
Offensive rating: 118.0 (fifth place)Defensive rating: 105.4 (first place)
Preseason win total: 62.5
On pace to win: 68
The Thunder starting 24-1 led to some loud conversations going into the NBA Cup. Now, the Thunder lose every week, so we don’t have to discuss them as a 70-win threat anymore. That being said, they’re still the best team in the league and ahead of the consensus from Vegas by a decent margin. This week would be a good time to finally beat Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs, though.
2. Detroit Pistons (28-10)
Last ranking: 2
In the last week: W vs NY, W vs CHI, L vs LAC
Offensive rating: 116.4 (ninth place)Defensive rating: 109.7 (second place)
Preseason win total: 46.5
On pace to win: 60
The Pistons looked as if they were going to close an impressive week undefeated, but they weren’t able to hold onto a double-digit fourth-quarter lead against the Clippers while extremely short-handed. Nevertheless, Detroit made its statements by embarrassing a Knicks team that ended its season last spring while flexing its depth against the Bulls. The path to the Eastern Conference’s top seed is very clear for a complementary Pistons team that is blowing through their preseason expectations for a second straight season, but do they cash in some of that depth for another difference-maker?
3. San Antonio Spurs (27-12)
Last ranking: 3
In the last week: L at MEM, W vs LAL, W at BOS, L at MIN
Offensive rating: 116.6 (eighth place)Defensive rating: 111.2 (third place)
Preseason win total: 44.5
On pace to win: 57
It was easy to be optimistic about the Spurs entering this season. But they are well ahead of schedule, as they are one of the best defenses in the league and have schooled the defending champion Thunder like no team has done. The Spurs haven’t been too sharp since the last time they beat Oklahoma City, going 4-5 since Christmas.
4. Denver Nuggets (26-13)
Last ranking: 6
In the last week: W at PHI, W at BOS, L vs ATL, W vs MIL
Offensive rating: 122.1 (first place)Defensive rating: 116.8 (23rd place)
Preseason win total: 53.5
On pace to win: 55
Denver only has 10 games played this season with the foursome of Nikola Jokić, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and newcomer Cameron Johnson. All four players are dealing with or are just now returning from multi-week injuries. And yet, not only are the Nuggets slightly exceeding expectations, but they have the NBA’s best offense. Denver has done well to survive Jokić’s knee injury so far to go 4-3, and while Jamal Murray has been fantastic, the Nuggets scooped multiple wins this week without Murray as well.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (26-14)
Last ranking: 9
In the last week: W vs MIA, W vs CLE, L at CLE, W vs SA
Offensive rating: 117.2 (sixth place)Defensive rating: 112.6 (seventh place)
Preseason win total: 49.5
On pace to win: 53
The Timberwolves have been to back-to-back Western Conference finals, and they are exceeding expectations slightly to begin this season. They’re starting to compile wins against teams better than .500, including Sunday’s comeback against the Spurs. They’re one of five teams ranked in the top 10 on both ends of the floor, and they’re good in clutch time as well.
Tier 2: In a Good Place
6. Boston Celtics (24-14)
Last ranking: 4
In the last week: W vs CHI, L vs DEN, W vs TOR, L vs SA
Offensive rating: 121.9 (second place)Defensive rating: 114.5 (16th place)
Preseason win total: 41.5
On pace to win: 52
Everyone expected the Celtics to slip some this season to various degrees. Boston isn’t at the very top of the East, but it has exceeded expectations besides that. The Celtics are coming off an uneven week, and Jaylen Brown followed up his 50-point game at the Clippers by shooting 38.5 percent from the field and averaging 4.8 turnovers per game while Boston split its four-game homestand, asking for a fine by the end of the weekend.
7. Phoenix Suns (24-15)
Last ranking: 7
In the last week: L at HOU, W at MEM, W vs NY, W vs WAS
Offensive rating: 114.6 (14th place)Defensive rating: 111.9 (fifth place)
Preseason win total: 30.5
On pace to win: 50
Phoenix is by far the biggest surprise in the NBA and a team that mirrors last season’s Clippers in more than one way. The Suns were outright bad last season with theoretical top-end talent, and they went through some addition by subtraction, though Kevin Durant reminded them that they still don’t have him. Even with Jalen Green playing all of five quarters so far this season, the Suns have survived on offense while getting back to Monty Williams era defensive outputs. Devin Booker has held it down without Green, but Booker can use Green to relieve pressure, just as James Harden needed Kawhi Leonard’s return around this time last year in LA.
8. New York Knicks (25-14)
Last ranking: 8
In the last week: L at DET, W vs LAC, L at PHO, W at POR
Offensive rating: 120.3 (third place)Defensive rating: 115.8 (18th place)
Preseason win total: 53.5
On pace to win: 53
The Knicks are fine. They’re about where they were expected to be. But that also means that they’re not doing a whole lot to exceed expectations either. And they’re the latest team to be somewhat hungover from the NBA Cup, going 7-7 since leaving Las Vegas. The 2024 Lakers went 10-16 immediately after winning the NBA Cup, while last season’s Bucks went 3-5 before straightening out. The good thing for New York is that it won’t have another road trip as long as its current western swing until early March.
Tier 3: The Bubble
9. Houston Rockets (22-14)
Last ranking: 5
In the last week: W vs PHO, L at POR, L at POR, L at SAC
Offensive rating: 119.8 (fourth place)Defensive rating: 112.6 (eighth place)
Preseason win total: 52.5
On pace to win: 50
Just add Durant to a top defense, and that fixes everything … right? It seems like the absence of Fred VanVleet is stressing Houston out even more than expected, and it will be interesting to see if Houston makes a trade to give Durant some relief. Ime Udoka has found something to call out the Rockets for on an increasing basis, but he’s Captain Obvious when discussing how unwise it is to have to play the 37-year-old Durant as many minutes as Durant is getting at his age.
Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell is averaging 29.8 points per game this season. (Bruce Kluckhohn / Imagn Images)
10. Cleveland Cavaliers (22-18)
Last ranking: 13
In the last week: W at IND, L at MIN, W vs MIN
Offensive rating: 116.8 (seventh place)Defensive rating: 114.3 (15th place)
Preseason win total: 56.5
On pace to win: 45.1
Last season was special for the Cavaliers, and some regression toward the pack was expected. But they are right in the middle of the pack now despite a special season from Donovan Mitchell. Cleveland split its home-and-home with the Timberwolves and will hope to build off the offensive momentum that saw it score at least 120 points in all three games this week.
11. Los Angeles Lakers (23-13)
Last ranking: 10
In the last week: W at NO, L at SA, L vs MIL
Offensive rating: 116.1 (11th place)Defensive rating: 116.8 (24th place)
Preseason win total: 46.5
On pace to win: 52
Congratulations to the Lakers, who showed that they are capable of not getting blown out when they lose. That’s the positive spin for the Lakers becoming the final team to lose a clutch-time game this season, with Giannis Antetokounmpo making big plays against LeBron James, leaving James to complain about the officiating for the first time all season. The sparkling record in clutch time has the Lakers in a comfortable spot in the standings and exceeding preseason expectations, but if the clutch-time results regress toward the mean, then they are going to be sweating.
12. Toronto Raptors (24-16)
Last ranking: 11
In the last week: W vs ATL, W at CHA, L at BOS, W vs PHI
Offensive rating: 113.9 (19th place)Defensive rating: 112.1 (sixth place)
Preseason win total: 39.5
On pace to win: 49
The Raptors are 16-7 with RJ Barrett and 8-9 without him, barely holding onto a win against the Philadelphia 76ers after blowing a 14-point lead. Toronto has only outscored foes by seven points in the 363 minutes this season when Barrett shares the floor with Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram. But the rest of the 1,572 minutes when those three aren’t on the floor together have seen Toronto outscore opponents by 68 points. Darko Rajaković has done a solid job using his depth and defense around his top players.
13. Philadelphia 76ers (21-16)
Last ranking: 14
In the last week: L vs DEN, W vs WAS, W at ORL, L at TOR
Offensive rating: 114.8 (13th place)Defensive rating: 113.1 (11th place)
Preseason win total: 43.5
On pace to win: 47
Philadelphia was set to bounce back after last season’s disastrous season, and it’s done that to this point. The Sixers still have too many games where it makes them hard to trust. Last Monday’s home loss to a road-weary, short-handed Nuggets team was a missed opportunity, especially with Philadelphia at full strength. And Tyrese Maxey is still carrying a heavy load for this team as well. I don’t want to think about where the Sixers would be if Maxey had to miss the kind of time that Joel Embiid and Paul George miss.
14. Golden State Warriors (21-19)
Last ranking: 15
In the last week: L at LAC, W vs MIL, W vs SAC, L vs ATL
Offensive rating: 114.5 (15th place)Defensive rating: 112.6 (ninth place)
Preseason win total: 47.5
On pace to win: 43
The Warriors split their games this week in a season where they have basically split their games. Golden State doesn’t have a single streak of at least four wins or four losses. The Warriors are comfortably uncomfortable, smack dab in the middle of the West. Only five teams have more clutch-time losses than the Warriors, and if they were just average in clutch time, then they would be right at their preseason expectation win total. Golden State is certainly underachieving, but like last season, don’t be surprised if it improves once it makes a trade. And this is like a holiday for some, as Jonathan Kuminga can be traded as early as Thursday.
15. Orlando Magic (22-18)
Last ranking: 16
In the last week: L at WAS, W at BRK, L vs PHI, W vs NO
Offensive rating: 114.4 (16th place)Defensive rating: 113.4 (12th place)
Preseason win total: 51.5
On pace to win: 45
This was supposed to be the season that the Magic came of age. The false starts have held Orlando back, although the hope remains that the Magic can get more minutes out of their four highest-paid players. The Magic have played only 11 games this season with all four of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Desmond Bane. I’d expect the Magic to be better in the second half of the season than they have shown so far.
16. Miami Heat (20-19)
Last ranking: 12
In the last week: L at MIN, PPD at CHI, L at IND, L at OKC
Offensive rating: 113.2 (22nd place)Defensive rating: 111.9 (fourth place)
Preseason win total: 37.5
On pace to win: 42
Not a good week for Miami, right down to warming up for a game in Chicago just to have it postponed. The Heat have now had four winning streaks this season of at least three games, and they have had three losing streaks this season of at least three games. Miami’s attempt at reconfiguring its identity was an admirable one, but it’s still an average team in the East. Tyler Herro and Norman Powell are an awkward fit together, particularly when those two aren’t playing with Davion Mitchell.
Tier 4: Not the Tier to Fear
17. Atlanta Hawks (20-21)
Last ranking: 18
In the last week: L at TOR, W vs NO, W at DEN, W at GS
Offensive rating: 114.2 (17th place)Defensive rating: 114.2 (14th place)
Preseason win total: 47.5
On pace to win: 40
I thought the Hawks would have a great season with Trae Young playing alongside Kristaps Porziņģis. Those two wound up playing a total of 51 minutes together, and the Hawks gave up 157 points in those 51 minutes. Atlanta was awful with Young on the floor this season and has broken up his contract between contract-year CJ McCollum (who debuted off the bench) and 3-point shooter Corey Kispert. It makes sense for Atlanta to continue shopping around its roster.
18. Memphis Grizzlies (17-22)
Last ranking: 19
In the last week: W vs SA, L vs PHO, L vs OKC, W vs BRK
Offensive rating: 112.6 (24th place)Defensive rating: 114.0 (13th place)
Preseason win total: 39.5
On pace to win: 36
I expect three things out of the Grizzlies these days: They will go up big against the Thunder, they will blow the lead and Ja Morant won’t be on the floor. This is also the worst the partnership on the floor has ever been for Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., as the Grizzlies are a paltry 6-12 in games when they play together. Memphis is actually a winning team this season when those two don’t play together, but that’s not ideal considering those two players make more than $70 million this season.
19. Milwaukee Bucks (17-22)
Last ranking: 20
In the last week: L at GS, W at LAL, L at DEN
Offensive rating: 113.5 (20th place)Defensive rating: 115.7 (17th place)
Preseason win total: 43.5
On pace to win: 36
The Bucks were expected to take a step back this season, but the consensus from Vegas was that they would still be a winning team. They are not a winning team. Giannis Antetokounmpo is to the 2026 Bucks what Kevin Durant was to the 2025 Suns. Now, the relationship is stronger between Milwaukee and its franchise player than whatever Phoenix had with Durant. The comparison is just a matter of wins and losses; the Bucks are 14-11 when Antetokounmpo plays and 3-12 when he doesn’t.
The Clippers stumbled out of the gate, but James Harden and Kawhi Leonard have recently found their stride. Vincent Carchietta / Imagn Images
20. LA Clippers (15-23)
Last ranking: 21
In the last week: W vs GS, L at NY, W at BRK, W at DET
Offensive rating: 115.3 (12th place)Defensive rating: 116.9 (26th place)
Preseason win total: 49.5
On pace to win: 32
Many people reacted to LA’s 6-21 start as if that was the Clippers team everyone expected to see. That was always cap, but people wanted to see the Clippers fail this season for a variety of reasons. Those doubters were validated accordingly. LA has started to play like a team that still had a high-performing Kawhi Leonard and James Harden for a few weeks now, but their chances of meeting regular-season expectations are quite remote at this point.
21. Portland Trail Blazers (19-21)
Last ranking: 22
In the last week: W vs UTA, W vs HOU, W vs HOU, L vs NY
Offensive rating: 113.5 (21st place)Defensive rating: 116.0 (19th place)
Preseason win total: 35.5
On pace to win: 39
Portland couldn’t beat the Knicks and extend a season-long win streak that was snapped at five games, denying the Trail Blazers a chance to reach .500. But all is not lost. Point guard Jrue Holiday finally returned to the lineup after being out for nearly two months because of a calf ailment, while Deni Avdija has upset defenders so much that he’s had to address his ability to get to the free-throw line at a high rate.
22. Charlotte Hornets (14-25)
Last ranking: 24
In the last week: W at OKC, L vs TOR, L vs IND, W at UTA
Offensive rating: 116.2 (10th place)Defensive rating: 116.4 (21st place)
Preseason win total: 27.5
On pace to win: 29
Overall, the Hornets are about where they were expected to be. But of their 14 wins, Charlotte has won five games by more than 20 points, including a crushing of the defending champions and a 55-point demolition of Utah. The Hornets won only four games in all of the previous three seasons by more than 20 points. When this team clicks, it can be devastating because of the scoring talent.
23. Chicago Bulls (18-20)
Last ranking: 17
In the last week: L at BOS, L at DET, PPD vs MIA, W vs DAL
Offensive rating: 113.2 (23rd place)Defensive rating: 116.9 (25th place)
Preseason win total: 33.5
On pace to win: 39
Chicago’s commitment to mid has led it to exceed its low preseason expectations. That’s what it’s come to for the Bulls these days: Backhanded compliments because the roster is uninspiring and because they can’t sustain the success they do have for long enough.
24. Dallas Mavericks (14-25)
Last ranking: 23
In the last week: W at SAC, L at UTA, L at CHI
Offensive rating: 109.0 (28th place)Defensive rating: 112.8 (10th place)
Preseason win total: 41.5
On pace to win: 29
Vegas and the national broadcasters were on NicoVision when it came to projecting this Mavericks team. Some even thought Kyrie Irving would be back by now. Alas, here the Mavericks are, with their injury-prone big men out of commission, top free-agent acquisition D’Angelo Russell playing zero 20-minute games since Thanksgiving and Cooper Flagg splitting awesome games with forgettable outings.
25. Brooklyn Nets (11-25)
Last ranking: 25
In the last week: L vs ORL, L vs LAC, L at MEM
Offensive rating: 111.9 (25th place)Defensive rating: 116.5 (22nd place)
Preseason win total: 19.5
On pace to win: 25
I don’t intend to be rude, but the Nets are 3-12 when Cam Thomas has played this season. That’s a 16-win pace, compared to the 31-win pace the Nets are on when Thomas doesn’t play. Brooklyn isn’t good, nor is it trying to be good this season. But that defensive effort Brooklyn was building right before Thomas returned is back in the tank with Thomas consistently playing again, and it feels like Brooklyn would be happy to move on from him.
Tier 5: Basement Floor
26. Utah Jazz (13-25)
Last ranking: 26
In the last week: L at POR, L at OKC, W vs DAL, L vs CHA
Offensive rating: 114.0 (18th place)Defensive rating: 122.0 (30th place)
Preseason win total: 18.5
On pace to win: 28
The Jazz were the worst team in the NBA last season. More games from Lauri Markkanen and marked improvement from Keyonte George have helped Utah win games and put a halfway decent offense on the floor. But now the Jazz find one game a week to park Markkanen, and they’re starting to put tank products on the floor. The low point was Saturday against the Hornets in front of their own fans, where they trailed by 31 points through one quarter and lost by 55.
27. Indiana Pacers (8-31)
Last ranking: 29
In the last week: L vs CLE, W at CHA, W vs MIA
Offensive rating: 108.6 (29th place)Defensive rating: 116.2 (20th place)
Preseason win total: 37.5
On pace to win: 17
Congratulations are in order for Rick Carlisle for reaching 1,000 career wins. No one imagined that Carlisle would not get there until January, though. Indiana was expected to take a step back and struggle to make the playoffs after Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles surgery and Myles Turner’s defection to Milwaukee. But the Pacers have instead been buried under the weight of nonexistent lineup consistency and substandard performance.
28. Sacramento Kings (9-30)
Last ranking: 30
In the last week: L vs DAL, L at GS, W vs HOU
Offensive rating: 108.5 (30th place)Defensive rating: 119.7 (28th place)
Preseason win total: 32.5
On pace to win: 19
The Kings were not highly thought of going into this season, but it is still jarring to see just how bad they are. They’ve already lost 20 games this season by 10 points or more. They’re the worst offense in basketball despite many offensive-minded players. And yet, half of their wins have come against Golden State, Denver, Minnesota and now twice against Houston.
29. New Orleans Pelicans (9-32)
Last ranking: 28
In the last week: L vs LAL, L at ATL, W at WAS, L at ORL
Offensive rating: 111.7 (26th place)Defensive rating: 118.9 (27th place)
Preseason win total: 30.5
On pace to win: 18
Expectations were low for the Pelicans. But they’re in disarray, and only the Wizards and Kings share the designation of a bottom-five team on offense and defense at this point in the season. And unlike the Wizards and Kings, the Pelicans have a No. 1 overall pick in the prime of his career on the roster. Zion Williamson and Derik Queen can’t play together, and Jordan Poole can’t play with Jeremiah Fears.
30. Washington Wizards (10-28)
Last ranking: 27
In the last week: W vs ORL, L at PHI, L vs NO, L at PHO
Offensive rating: 109.5 (27th place)Defensive rating: 120.7 (29th place)
Preseason win total: 20.5
On pace to win: 22
I mentioned last week that CJ McCollum was getting too many buckets and that the Wizards could use a point guard to help the rest of their young corps develop their games. Well, McCollum shot almost 50/40/90 while averaging nearly 20 points for a Wizards team that won five of McCollum’s last seven games with the team. Stop the count! Not only did Washington trade McCollum, but it acquired a point guard in Young that might debut this season in Washington only because of the increased scrutiny that comes with the Player Participation Policy. The Wizards said they wanted a star in Washington, and Young certainly qualifies, though Young can’t stop Washington from taking one last big swing at the lottery before its floor rises back to mid in the East as early as next season.
By Law Murray, via The Athletic