By Zach Kram | ESPN, 2026-01-12 20:00:00
超级巨星的交易价值持续攀升。然而，即便像扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 这样的球星可能进入交易市场，NBA 的管理层或许仍在重新评估这种价值通胀。
上个月，ESPN 的布莱恩·温德霍斯特 (Brian Windhorst) 在“Hoop Collective”播客中表示，当他与球队高管交谈时，“现在 NBA 的风气是不愿为任何人放弃四个首轮签。”温德霍斯特说，由于对新的工资帽限制（salary aprons）和以往明星球员回报的担忧，在一笔交易中捆绑如此多选秀权的想法“与联盟内部人士告诉我的价值不符，即便是对于超级巨星也是如此。”
这类交易在 NBA 算是一种相对较新的现象。除了2013年布鲁克林篮网队为得到保罗·皮尔斯 (Paul Pierce) 和凯文·加内特 (Kevin Garnett) 而进行的著名交易外，典型的超级巨星交易最多只涉及几个选秀权。但这一切在2019年的11天内发生了改变，当时安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)、保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 和拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克 (Russell Westbrook) 都以巨额筹码被交易。自那以后，每年至少都有一笔涉及四个或更多首轮签及选秀权互换权的重磅交易完成。
这一波交易潮提供了足够的样本来分析其结果，看看为一名球员倾其所有是否值得，或者球队回避这种过度支出的做法是否正确。让我们来评估一下近代历史上的每一笔重磅交易，并在文末提供一些更广泛的教训。
注意：本列表仅包含关键球员和选秀权；次轮签和主要为匹配薪资而加入的球员不包括在内。
跳转至交易：
篮网得到皮尔斯、加内特 | 湖人得到浓眉
乔治西游 | 火箭得到拉塞尔
霍勒迪加盟密尔沃基 | 哈登短暂停留布鲁克林
老鹰得到穆雷 | 戈贝尔前往明尼苏达
米切尔加盟骑士 | 杜兰特空降菲尼克斯
比尔联手杜兰特加盟太阳 | 布里奇斯加盟“维拉诺瓦尼克斯”
福克斯入主马刺 | 贝恩前往奥兰多
最终定论
篮网得到保罗·皮尔斯和凯文·加内特，2013年
篮网送出：
2014年首轮签（最终为第17顺位）
2016年首轮签（最终为第3顺位）
2017年选秀权互换权（用状元签换得第27顺位签）
2018年首轮签（最终为第8顺位）
在前老板米哈伊尔·普罗霍罗夫 (Mikhail Prokhorov) 的主导下，篮网为一群老将孤注一掷，最终取得了44胜38负的战绩并进入季后赛第二轮。随后，他们停止了对这套老龄化且昂贵的核心阵容的投入。皮尔斯在一个赛季后以自由球员身份离开布鲁克林，而加内特则在半个赛季后被交易。
在得到皮尔斯和加内特的交易中，布鲁克林放弃的未来选秀权被凯尔特人队用来选中了杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum)（凯尔特人在2017年获得状元签后，向下交易至第3顺位）。自这笔交易以来，凯尔特人队的胜场数在NBA排名第二，仅次于金州勇士队，而篮网队则排名第24位。
结论： 彻底失败
湖人得到安东尼·戴维斯，2019年
湖人送出：
布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram)
朗佐·鲍尔 (Lonzo Ball)
约什·哈特 (Josh Hart)
德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter) 的签约权（刚在第4顺位被选中）
2022年首轮签（最终为第8顺位）
2023年选秀权互换权（未执行）
2025年首轮签（最终为第25顺位）
任何能带来总冠军的交易操作，从定义上讲都是成功的；正如温德霍斯特喜欢说的：“赢得总冠军意味着你永远不必说抱歉。”
因此，即便湖人队在戴维斯和勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 时代可以说表现未达预期——他们在2020年奥兰多隔离赛区夺冠后仅有一次突破季后赛首轮——这个结论也很容易得出。另外一个附带的好处是，如果洛杉矶没有得到戴维斯，卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 就不会成为湖人球员。
结论： 巨大成功
快船得到保罗·乔治，2019年
快船送出：
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
达尼罗·加里纳利 (Danilo Gallinari)
2021年首轮签（来自热火，最终为第18顺位）
2022年首轮签（最终为第12顺位）
2023年首轮签（来自热火，最终为第18顺位）
2024年首轮签（最终为第26顺位）
2025年选秀权互换权（用第24顺位签换得第30顺位签）
2026年首轮签
尽管事后看来这笔交易是一场灾难，但在当时是合情合理的：乔治在2019年MVP评选中位列第三，他的到来意味着快船队还能在自由球员市场上吸引到科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)——他刚刚在多伦多猛龙队打出了英雄般的季后赛表现并荣膺总决赛MVP。拥有这两位顶级侧翼后，快船队以夺冠热门的姿态进入了2019-20赛季。尽管他们未能进入总决赛，但他们在接下来的赛季中队史首次闯入分区决赛。
与此同时，尽管为了得到乔治付出了巨大代价，但当时外界的焦点更多地集中在选秀权上；吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，一年前的11号秀，场均得到10.8分，数据尚可但并不惊艳，并入选了最佳新秀二阵。
当然，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大后来成长为一名MVP和总决赛MVP，而2022年的12号签则选中了杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)，后者在第三个赛季就成长为一名最佳阵容级别的球员。尽管后一部分超出了快船队的控制范围——如果雷霆队在第12顺位选择奥斯曼·吉昂 (Ousmane Dieng)（他们在威廉姆斯前一个顺位选中了他），这笔交易看起来也不会那么糟糕——但交易掉一位未来的MVP，让这笔交易成了一次彻底的失败。
结论： 彻底失败
火箭得到拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克，2019年
火箭送出：
克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul)
2021年选秀权互换权（因前四顺位保护未执行）
2024年首轮签（最终为第12顺位）
2025年选秀权互换权（未执行）
2026年首轮签
威斯布鲁克在休斯顿的唯一一个赛季表现出色，火箭队采用了超级小个阵容风格，让詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 和威斯布鲁克成为NBA历史上得分能力最强的二人组之一——他们场均合砍61.5分。但在隔离赛区季后赛第二轮输给湖人队的比赛中，火箭队毫无竞争力，赛季结束后他们用威斯布鲁克换来了约翰·沃尔 (John Wall)。
与此同时，保罗仍然油箱有油，所以雷霆队在这笔交易中既得到了更好的球员，又获得了选秀权，显然是赢家。但由于火箭队在2021年的乐透抽签中幸运地保住了受保护的选秀权，并很快成功重建，他们最终从这笔交易中送出的最好选秀权只是在一个选秀小年中的第12顺位。（俄克拉荷马雷霆队用它选中了尼古拉·托皮奇 (Nikola Topic)，他至今尚未打过一场NBA比赛。）这个结果不算太糟。
结论： 小幅失败
雄鹿得到朱·霍勒迪，2020年
雄鹿送出：
埃里克·布莱索 (Eric Bledsoe)
R.J.汉普顿 (R.J. Hampton) 的签约权（刚在第24顺位被选中）
2024年选秀权互换权（用第21顺位签换得第23顺位签）
2025年首轮签（最终为第19顺位）
2026年选秀权互换权
2027年首轮签
参见温德霍斯特法则：赢得总冠军，就像密尔沃基在霍勒迪加盟的第一个赛季所做的那样，意味着你永远不必说抱歉。霍勒迪在雄鹿队总决赛的胜利中贡献了最关键的高光时刻，他在总决赛第五场对阵太阳队的比赛中，以一次锁定胜局的抢断和空中接力助攻，为球队立下汗马功劳。
结论： 巨大成功
篮网得到詹姆斯·哈登，2021年
篮网送出：
贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen)
卡里斯·勒韦尔 (Caris LeVert)
托里恩·普林斯 (Taurean Prince)
2021年选秀权互换权（未执行）
2022年首轮签（最终为第17顺位）
2023年选秀权互换权（未执行）
2024年首轮签（最终为第3顺位）
2025年选秀权互换权（后被交易回布鲁克林）
2026年首轮签（后被交易回布鲁克林）
2027年选秀权互换权
在凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 和凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 已在阵中的情况下，篮网队引进了哈登，组建了他们的三巨头。当三位巨星同时在场时，他们毫无悬念地展现了统治力，根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，他们在常规赛和季后赛的净效率值高达+16.9。
但由于伤病频发，这样的时刻非常罕见。在2021年季后赛对阵密尔沃基的第七场比赛中，欧文缺阵，哈登带伤作战，杜兰特在关键跳投时脚踩三分线。这本可能是一个锁定系列赛胜局并可能带领篮网夺冠的三分球，结果却只将比分扳平，密尔沃基在加时赛中获胜，摧毁了布鲁克林最好的夺冠机会。
此后一切分崩离析：欧文因纽约市的新冠疫苗强制令缺席了2021-22赛季的主场比赛，而到2023年2月，三位巨星都已请求并获准交易。
结论： 差一点巨大成功，但终究是彻底失败
老鹰得到德章泰·穆雷，2022年
老鹰送出：
2023年首轮签（来自黄蜂，因保护条款未兑现）
2025年首轮签（最终为第14顺位）
2026年选秀权互换权
2027年首轮签
老鹰队希望穆雷能帮助他们重现2021年闯入分区决赛的魔力。然而，这位一次入选全明星的球员防守水平下滑，并且从未与特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 产生良好化学反应；在他效力的两个赛季里，老鹰队都只是一支附加赛球队。
不过，两年后，亚特兰大通过另一笔交易挽回了这笔交易的大部分损失。在将穆雷送到新奥尔良的交易中，老鹰队得到了即将迎来爆发的戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels)，以及让他们得以得到克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 的首轮签和一个2027年的首轮签。
结论： 小幅失败
森林狼得到鲁迪·戈贝尔，2022年
森林狼送出：
马利克·比斯利 (Malik Beasley)
帕特里克·贝弗利 (Patrick Beverley)
贾里德·范德比尔特 (Jarred Vanderbilt)
沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler) 的签约权（刚在第22顺位被选中）
2023年首轮签（最终为第16顺位）
2025年首轮签（最终为第21顺位）
2026年选秀权互换权
2027年首轮签
2029年首轮签（前五顺位保护）
自从为这位现已四次荣膺年度最佳防守球员的球员完成这笔惊人交易以来，明尼苏达尚未赢得总冠军。但总冠军并非衡量成功的唯一标准，戈贝尔已经为球队历史上最成功的时代做出了巨大贡献——森林狼在过去两个赛季中赢得的季后赛系列赛次数（四次）是他们之前所有赛季总和（两次）的两倍。
尽管引进戈贝尔影响了森林狼管理层的操作灵活性——导致了卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 的交易——但这些选秀权并没有让明尼苏达付出太多代价：三个非乐透签，一个几乎可以肯定在今年春天不会被执行的互换权，以及另外两个未来的选秀权，届时安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 仍将处于巅峰期。
结论： 巨大成功
骑士得到多诺万·米切尔，2022年
骑士送出：
劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen)
科林·塞克斯顿 (Collin Sexton)
奥凯·阿巴基 (Ochai Agbaji) 的签约权（刚在第14顺位被选中）
2025年首轮签（最终为第29顺位）
2026年选秀权互换权
2027年首轮签
2028年选秀权互换权
2029年首轮签
骑士队为了得到米切尔付出了很多，而大部分回报尚未兑现。如果克利夫兰在此期间送出了一两个高价值的选秀权，这笔交易到2029年可能会看起来糟糕得多。
但就目前而言，骑士队很可能会再做一次这笔交易。米切尔在作为骑士球员的每个赛季都入选了全明星，上赛季，他成为队史第三位入选最佳阵容一阵的球员——与勒布朗·詹姆斯和马克·普莱斯 (Mark Price) 齐名。尽管骑士队在拥有米切尔后尚未取得太多季后赛成功，但常规赛的价值依然存在，2024-25赛季的骑士队赢得了64场比赛，是队史第二多。
结论： 小幅成功
太阳得到凯文·杜兰特，2023年
太阳送出：
米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)
卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson)
杰·克劳德 (Jae Crowder)
2023年首轮签（最终为第21顺位）
2025年首轮签（最终为第10顺位，后被交易回菲尼克斯）
2027年首轮签
2028年选秀权互换权
2029年首轮签
仅仅是太阳队送出了五个首轮签和互换权，这笔交易就已经是失败的了。更何况他们还放弃了布里奇斯和约翰逊，结果眼睁睁看着布鲁克林用他们换来了首轮签，这使得这笔交易堪称NBA历史上代价最昂贵的交易。
而付出了如此巨大的投资，太阳队的回报是在拥有杜兰特的三年里，仅仅赢得了一轮季后赛系列赛。
结论： 彻底失败
太阳得到布拉德利·比尔，2023年
太阳送出：
克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul)
2024年选秀权互换权（未执行）
2026年选秀权互换权
2028年选秀权互换权
2030年选秀权互换权
太阳队在2024年没有失去他们的选秀权，在2026年很可能也不会。取决于未来十年的走向，太阳队可能永远都不会把任何选秀资产交给华盛顿。
然而，比尔在菲尼克斯的适配性在阵容和球队财务方面都是一场灾难，以至于这笔交易仍然无法挽回。去年夏天，太阳队裁掉并买断了比尔的剩余合同。
结论： 彻底失败
尼克斯得到米卡尔·布里奇斯，2024年
尼克斯送出：
博扬·博格达诺维奇 (Bojan Bogdanovic)
2025年首轮签（最终为第26顺位）
2025年首轮签（来自雄鹿，最终为第19顺位）
2027年首轮签
2028年选秀权互换权
2029年首轮签
2031年首轮签
现在评判这笔交易的结果还为时过早，纽约为了一位非全明星球员放弃了大量的选秀权。但展望未来，衡量成功的标准似乎相当简单。如果这支尼克斯核心阵容从未进入总决赛，并且如果管理层因为用那些选秀权换来布里奇斯而无法进一步提升球队——比如说，尼克斯没有资产去完成一笔交易得到像阿德托昆博这样的更大牌球星——那么这笔交易就将是失败的。
但如果布里奇斯——他在作为尼克斯球员的第二个赛季表现出色——帮助纽约打入21世纪的首次总决赛，那么无论发生什么其他情况，这笔交易都将是成功的。
结论： 待定
马刺得到德阿龙·福克斯，2025年
马刺送出：
特雷·琼斯 (Tre Jones)
2025年首轮签（来自公牛，最终为第12顺位）
2025年首轮签（来自黄蜂，因保护条款未兑现）
2027年首轮签
2031年首轮签（来自森林狼）
现在就判断这笔交易是马刺队的胜利还不算太早。福克斯为西部第二的球队场均贡献21分，马刺队看起来远超预期地成为了一支总冠军竞争者。得到福克斯的代价不像这个名单上的其他球星那么高，很大程度上是因为马刺队交易的四个选秀权中有三个并非他们自己的。
结论： 至少是小幅成功，并有潜力发展为巨大成功
魔术得到德斯蒙德·贝恩，2025年
魔术送出：
肯塔维奥斯·考德威尔-波普 (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope)
科尔·安东尼 (Cole Anthony)
2025年首轮签（第16顺位）
2026年选秀权互换权
2028年首轮签
2029年选秀权互换权
2030年首轮签
贝恩在奥兰多经历了一段艰难的开局后正在逐渐适应，但魔术队的表现未达预期。可能需要数年时间才能对这笔交易做出明确的评判。
结论： 待定
最终统计
最终统计结果如下（不包括待定交易）：
巨大成功：3
小幅成功：2
小幅失败：2
彻底失败：5
这意味着成功率为42%，失败率为58%。在一个小样本中，重磅交易成功的几率和斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 投中一记三分球的几率相同。这不算差！
那么，为什么球队会害怕用重磅筹码交易球星呢？因为那些彻底失败的案例——主要集中在篮网队和太阳队——后果非常严重。（别忘了，最近的两位总冠军也是因为他们同样孤注一掷才捧起了拉里·奥布莱恩冠军奖杯。）损失厌恶心理意味着人们很自然地会更关注警示故事，而非成功案例。
同样值得注意的是，即使是菲尼克斯太阳队，在杜兰特和比尔的交易失败后，去年夏天看起来是联盟中处境最糟糕的球队，本赛季也已经重回赢球轨道。即使是失败，也并非永恒。
这些交易的一个共同点是，它们最终付出的往往只是中等顺位的选秀权，因为孤注一掷的球队通常是争冠队伍，他们的选秀顺位靠后。尽管篮网队交易的三个未来选秀权最终都进入了前三顺位，但这份重磅交易清单上的其他选秀权没有一个进入前七顺位。相反，迄今为止已兑现的选秀权和互换权中，有70%要么落在乐透区之外，要么未能兑现。
总而言之，根据我的选秀权价值表，这些重磅交易中所交易的未来选秀权，其平均价值回报大约相当于第18顺位的选秀权。
具体到选秀权互换权，这些交易中10个可能的互换权至今只执行了3个，其中只有一个——2017年篮网/凯尔特人的互换权——价值特别高；其他的只是从23顺位到21顺位以及从30顺位到24顺位的微小移动。这一结果与我之前进行的研究相符，该研究表明，选秀历史上超过60%的首轮互换权最终都被证明毫无价值。
因此，对于那些追求球星的球队来说，更大的问题不是他们放弃的选秀权，而是他们通过增加高薪合同的球星所放弃的阵容构建灵活性——尤其是在新的、惩罚性更强的劳资协议下。这种限制可能足以成为放弃此类孤注一掷交易的充分理由，特别是当交易对象是一位无法凭一己之力将球队提升至争冠行列的二线球星时。
但对于像阿德托昆博这样的顶级超级巨星来说，过去几年重磅交易的结果并非绝对令人沮丧。交易得到一名球星并非板上钉钉的成功。但它也并非注定是一场灾难。
由生成式 AI 翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Are blockbuster NBA trades worth it? Lessons from 14 since 2013
Are blockbuster NBA trades worth it? Lessons from 14 since 2013
The trade value for superstars continues to rise. Still, NBA front offices might be reassessing this form of inflation, even as stars such as Giannis Antetokounmpo potentially become available.
Last month, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said on the “Hoop Collective” podcast that when he has talked to team executives, “The mood in the NBA right now is not to give up four first-round picks for anybody.” Due to concerns about the new salary aprons and previous star returns, Windhorst said, the notion of bundling so many picks in a trade “is not matching what people in the league are telling me the value is, even for a superstar player.”
Such deals are a relatively new phenomenon in the NBA. Other than the Brooklyn Nets’ memorable trade for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in 2013, typical superstar swaps involved a couple of picks at most. But that changed in 11 days in 2019, when Anthony Davis, Paul George and Russell Westbrook all moved for massive hauls. In every year since, at least one blockbuster trade has been completed that involved four or more first-round picks and swaps.
That flurry provides enough of a sample to analyze the outcomes, to see if going all in for a player is worth it, or if teams are correct to back away from such excessive spending. Let’s assess each one of these blockbuster trades from recent history, and we’ll provide some broader lessons at the end.
Note: Only key players and picks are included in this list; second-round picks and players primarily added to match salaries are not.
Jump to a trade:
Nets acquired Pierce, Garnett | Lakers gain AD
PG heads out West | Rockets acquired Russell
Holiday heads to Milwaukee | Harden stops by Brooklyn
Hawks acquired Murray | Gobert heads to Minnesota
Mitchell joins Cavs | Durant drops into Phoenix
Beal joins Durant, Suns | Bridges joins Nova-Knicks
Fox sets up with Spurs | Bane heads to Orlando
The final verdict
Nets acquired Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, 2013
Nets traded:
2014 first-round pick (landed at No. 17)
2016 first-round pick (landed at No. 3)
2017 swap rights (swapped No. 1 for No. 27)
2018 first-round pick (landed at No. 8)
Under former owner Mikhail Prokhorov, the Nets went all-in for a group of veterans, finished with a 44-38 record and reached the second round of the playoffs. They then stopped spending on the aging, expensive core they had assembled. Pierce left Brooklyn in free agency after one season, and Garnett was traded half a season later.
In acquiring Pierce and Garnett, Brooklyn gave up future picks that the Celtics turned into Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum (after the Celtics landed the No. 1 pick in 2017 before trading down to No. 3). Since this trade, the Celtics have the second-most wins in the NBA, behind only the Golden State Warriors, while the Nets rank 24th.
Verdict: Major failure
Lakers acquired Anthony Davis, 2019
Lakers traded:
Brandon Ingram
Lonzo Ball
Josh Hart
Rights to De’Andre Hunter (just picked No. 4)
2022 first-round pick (landed at No. 8)
2023 swap rights (not exercised)
2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 25)
Any set of transactions that results in a championship is by definition successful; as Windhorst likes to say, “Winning a title means never having to say you’re sorry.”
So, even though the Lakers arguably underachieved during the Davis-LeBron James era – they advanced past the first round just once after their 2020 title in the Orlando bubble – this is an easy verdict to deliver. As a bonus, Luka Doncic wouldn’t be a Laker if Los Angeles hadn’t acquired Davis.
Verdict: Major success
Clippers acquired Paul George, 2019
Clippers traded:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Danilo Gallinari
2021 first-round pick (via Miami, landed at No. 18)
2022 first-round pick (landed at No. 12)
2023 first-round pick (via Miami, landed at No. 18)
2024 first-round pick (landed at No. 26)
2025 swap rights (swapped No. 24 for No. 30)
2026 first-round pick
Although this trade registers as a disaster in hindsight, it made sense at the time: George was coming off a third-place MVP finish in 2019, and his arrival in Los Angeles meant the Clippers could also lure Kawhi Leonard – coming off a heroic postseason run and Finals MVP award with the Toronto Raptors – in free agency. With those two apex wings aboard, the Clippers entered the 2019-20 season as championship favorites. And even though they didn’t reach the Finals, they still advanced to the conference finals the next season for the first time in franchise history.
Meanwhile, despite trading so much to acquire George, the focus at the time was more on the picks; Gilgeous-Alexander, the No. 11 pick a year earlier, had averaged a respectable but unspectacular 10.8 points per game and made the All-Rookie second team.
Of course, Gilgeous-Alexander later blossomed into an MVP and a Finals MVP, and the No. 12 pick in 2022 was Jalen Williams, who developed into an All-NBA player by his third season. Though that latter part was outside the Clippers’ control – and this deal wouldn’t look quite so bad if the Thunder had taken Ousmane Dieng, whom they grabbed one spot ahead of Williams, at No. 12 instead – trading a future MVP makes this trade a major failure.
Verdict: Major failure
Rockets acquired Russell Westbrook, 2019
Rockets trade:
Chris Paul
2021 swap rights (not exercised because of top-4 protection)
2024 first-round pick (landed at No. 12)
2025 swap rights (not exercised)
2026 first-round pick
Westbrook played well in his lone season in Houston, as the Rockets embraced a super-small-ball style that allowed James Harden and Westbrook to become one of the highest-scoring duos in NBA history – they combined for 61.5 points per game. But the Rockets were uncompetitive in a second-round loss to the Lakers in the bubble, and they flipped Westbrook for John Wall after the season.
Meanwhile, Paul still had plenty left in his tank, so the Thunder nabbed the best player and the picks in this deal, clearly winning the trade. But because the Rockets got lucky in the 2021 lottery by keeping their protected pick, and successfully rebuilt soon after, the best pick they ultimately surrendered from this deal was only the No. 12 selection in a weak draft. (Oklahoma City used it on Nikola Topic, who has yet to play an NBA game.) That’s not a terrible outcome.
Verdict: Minor failure
Bucks acquired Jrue Holiday, 2020
Bucks traded:
Eric Bledsoe
Rights to R.J. Hampton (just picked No. 24)
2024 swap rights (swapped No. 21 for No. 23)
2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 19)
2026 swap rights
2027 first-round pick
See the Windhorst rule: Winning a title, as Milwaukee did in Holiday’s first season in town, means never having to say you’re sorry. Holiday supplied the most clutch highlight of the Bucks’ Finals triumph, with his game-sealing strip and alley-oop assist in Game 5 against the Suns.
Verdict: Major success
Nets acquired James Harden, 2021
Nets traded:
Jarrett Allen
Caris LeVert
Taurean Prince
2021 swap rights (not exercised)
2022 first-round pick (landed at No. 17)
2023 swap rights (not exercised)
2024 first-round pick (landed at No. 3)
2025 swap rights (later traded back to Brooklyn)
2026 first-round pick (later traded back to Brooklyn)
2027 swap rights
With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving already on the roster, the Nets added Harden to complete their Big Three. They were unsurprisingly dominant when all three stars shared the court, with a plus-16.9 net rating during the regular season and playoffs, per Cleaning the Glass.
But those moments were rare because of numerous injuries. With Irving out and Harden hobbled, Durant toed the 3-point line on his clutch jumper in Game 7 against Milwaukee in the 2021 playoffs. Instead of a series-winning 3-pointer that could have propelled the Nets to the title, Durant had only tied the score, and Milwaukee won in overtime to ruin Brooklyn’s best chance at a championship.
Everything collapsed soon after: Irving skipped home games in the 2021-22 season because of New York City’s COVID vaccine mandate, and all three stars requested – and received – trades by February 2023.
Verdict: Almost a major success, but a major failure nonetheless
Hawks acquired Dejounte Murray, 2022
Hawks traded:
2023 first-round pick (via Hornets, didn’t convey because of protections)
2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 14)
2026 swap rights
2027 first-round pick
The Hawks hoped Murray would help them recapture the magic that thrust Atlanta into the 2021 conference finals. However, the one-time All-Star’s defense regressed, and he never meshed with Trae Young; the Hawks were a play-in team in both of his seasons.
Atlanta salvaged much of this trade thanks to another deal two years later, though. In sending Murray to New Orleans, the Hawks received Dyson Daniels on the cusp of a breakout, the first-round pick that allowed them to acquire Kristaps Porzingis and a 2027 first.
Verdict: Minor failure
Timberwolves acquired Rudy Gobert, 2022
Timberwolves traded:
Malik Beasley
Patrick Beverley
Jarred Vanderbilt
Rights to Walker Kessler (just picked No. 22)
2023 first-round pick (landed at No. 16)
2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 21)
2026 swap rights
2027 first-round pick
2029 first-round pick (top-5 protection)
Minnesota hasn’t won a title since its shocking trade for the now-four-time Defensive Player of the Year. But a championship isn’t the only criterion for success, and Gobert has been a major contributor to the most successful era in franchise history – the Timberwolves have won twice as many playoff series in the past two seasons (four) as in all of their previous seasons combined (two).
Though adding Gobert compromised the Timberwolves’ front office flexibility – leading to the Karl-Anthony Towns trade – the picks haven’t cost Minnesota much: three non-lottery selections, a swap that almost certainly won’t be exercised this spring and two more future picks, both of which will come with Anthony Edwards still in his prime.
Verdict: Major success
Cavaliers acquired Donovan Mitchell, 2022
Cavaliers traded:
Lauri Markkanen
Collin Sexton
Rights to Ochai Agbaji (just picked No. 14)
2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 29)
2026 swap rights
2027 first-round pick
2028 swap rights
2029 first-round pick
The Cavaliers gave up a lot to acquire Mitchell, and much of the return has yet to come due. This deal might look much worse in 2029 if Cleveland has surrendered a juicy pick or two in the interim.
But for now, the Cavaliers would likely make this trade again. Mitchell has been an All-Star in every season as a Cavalier, and last season, he became just the third player in franchise history – along with LeBron James and Mark Price – to make an All-NBA first team. Though the Cavaliers have yet to experience much playoff success with Mitchell, there’s still value in the regular season, and the 2024-25 Cavaliers won 64 games, the second most in team history.
Verdict: Minor success
Suns acquired Kevin Durant, 2023
Suns traded:
Mikal Bridges
Cam Johnson
Jae Crowder
2023 first-round pick (landed at No. 21)
2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 10, later traded back to Phoenix)
2027 first-round pick
2028 swap rights
2029 first-round pick
This trade would be a failure just from the Suns giving up five first-round picks and swaps. The fact that they also gave up Bridges and Johnson, only to watch Brooklyn trade them for first-round picks, makes this arguably the most expensive trade in NBA history.
And for all that investment, the Suns’ return was one playoff-series victory in three years with Durant.
Verdict: Major failure
Suns acquired Bradley Beal, 2023
Suns traded:
Chris Paul
2024 swap rights (not exercised)
2026 swap rights
2028 swap rights
2030 swap rights
The Suns didn’t lose their pick in 2024, and they likely won’t in 2026, either. Depending on how the rest of the decade goes, the Suns might never give any draft capital to Washington.
And yet, Beal’s fit in Phoenix was such a debacle, in terms of roster fit and the franchise’s finances, that this trade still isn’t redeemable. The Suns waived Beal and bought out the remainder of his contract last summer.
Verdict: Major failure
Knicks acquired Mikal Bridges, 2024
Knicks traded:
Bojan Bogdanovic
2025 first-round pick (landed at No. 26)
2025 first-round pick (via Bucks, landed at No. 19)
2027 first-round pick
2028 swap rights
2029 first-round pick
2031 first-round pick
It’s too early to judge the outcome of this trade, in which New York surrendered a considerable number of picks for a non-All-Star. But the measure of success appears fairly simple, looking forward. If this Knicks core never reaches the Finals, and if the front office can’t further improve the team because trading those picks for Bridges means, say, the Knicks don’t have the assets to complete a trade for a bigger star like Antetokounmpo, then this trade will be a failure.
But if Bridges – who’s enjoying a strong second season as a Knick – helps lead New York to its first Finals appearance of the 21st century, then this trade is a success, almost no matter what else happens.
Verdict: To be determined
Spurs acquired De’Aaron Fox, 2025
Spurs traded:
Tre Jones
2025 first-round pick (via Bulls, landed at No. 12)
2025 first-round pick (via Hornets, didn’t convey because of protections)
2027 first-round pick
2031 first-round pick (via Timberwolves)
It’s not too early to judge this trade as a win for the Spurs. Fox is scoring 21 points per game for the second-place team in the West, and the Spurs look like a championship contender well ahead of schedule. Acquiring Fox didn’t cost as much as stars on this list, in large part because three of the four picks the Spurs traded weren’t their own.
Verdict: At least a minor success, with room to grow into a major success
Magic acquired Desmond Bane, 2025
Magic traded:
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Cole Anthony
2025 first-round pick (No. 16)
2026 swap rights
2028 first-round pick
2029 swap rights
2030 first-round pick
Bane is settling in after a rough start in Orlando, but the Magic are performing below expectations. It might take years to make a definitive determination on this deal.
Verdict: To be determined
The final totals
The final tally is (excluding TBD trades):
Major success: 3
Minor success: 2
Minor failure: 2
Major failure: 5
That’s a 42% success rate and 58% failure rate, meaning that in a small sample, the odds of a blockbuster trade working out are the same as the odds of Stephen Curry making a 3-pointer. That’s not bad!
Why, then, might teams be scared to trade blockbuster packages for stars? Because the major failures, which are concentrated among the Nets and Suns, are so severe. (Nevermind that two recent champions lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy because they, too, went all in.) Loss aversion means that it’s natural to focus on the cautionary tales rather than the success stories.
It’s also worth noting that even Phoenix, which looked to be in the worst shape of any team in the league last summer after the failures of the Durant and Beal trades, already has a winning record again this season. Even the failures aren’t forever.
One common theme among the trades is that they’ve largely ended up costing only mediocre picks because the teams going all-in are contenders that draft later in the first round. Though the Nets have traded three future selections that landed in the top three picks, none of the other picks from this list of blockbusters landed in the top seven. Instead, 70% of the picks and swaps that have matured to date either landed outside the lottery or didn’t convey.
Taken all together, the future picks traded in these blockbuster deals have returned roughly the No. 18 pick in average value, according to my draft pick value chart.
With swaps specifically, only three of 10 possible swaps from these trades have exercised so far, and just one of those – the Nets/Celtics swap in 2017 – was especially valuable; the others were minor moves from No. 23 to 21 and No. 30 to 24. This outcome aligns with previous research I’ve conducted that shows that more than 60% of possible first-round swaps in draft history have proven worthless.
The larger problem for the teams targeting stars, then, isn’t the draft picks they give up, but the roster-building flexibility they surrender by adding stars with high-priced contracts – particularly under the new, more punitive CBA. That constriction might be a sufficient reason to back away from this sort of all-in trade, especially when it’s for a secondary star who won’t catapult a team into championship contention by himself.
But for a top-tier superstar like Antetokounmpo, the results of the past several years of blockbusters aren’t definitively discouraging. Trading for a star isn’t a sure thing. But it’s not a guaranteed disaster, either.
By Zach Kram | ESPN, via ESPN