By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2026-01-05 20:00:00
最后一位有资格评奖的NBA球星，请记得随手关灯好吗？
随着NBA常规赛赛程即将过半——周四，亚特兰大老鹰队将成为第一支打满41场比赛的球队——联盟要求球员至少出战65场以获得个人主要奖项资格的规定，正因各种负面新闻而备受关注。
尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 对个人第四座MVP奖杯的冲击，几乎可以肯定因其在12月29日遭遇的膝盖过度伸展而终结，此前他曾是领先于卫冕者谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的微弱热门。尽管维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 避免了严重伤病，但他在新年前夜同样遭遇膝盖过度伸展后缺席的两场比赛，也可能让他无法满足评奖资格。
由于2024-25赛季已有三位NBA最佳阵容成员（泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton)、杰森·塔特姆 (Jayson Tatum) 和杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)）宣告出局，而扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 也濒临缺席过多比赛的边缘，今年的各大奖项评选结果可能会呈现出截然不同的面貌。特别是NBA最佳阵容的评选，因其对球员获得超级顶薪（supermax）续约资格的影响而意义重大。
上赛季，凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)（入选NBA最佳阵容三队）和埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)（荣获年度最佳防守球员并入选NBA最佳阵容二队）均触发了奖励条款，使其新秀续约合同的金额从工资帽的25%（通常情况下的最高比例）提升至30%。在梳理NBA各大最负盛名个人奖项目前的领跑者、竞争者和潜在人选时，我们将密切关注类似的情况——至少目前如此。
跳转至相应奖项：
最佳阵容：一阵 | 二阵 | 三阵
个人奖项：MVP | DPOY | ROY | 最佳第六人 | 最快进步球员 | 最佳教练
NBA最佳阵容三队
斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)，多伦多猛龙队
斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)，金州勇士队
杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)，亚特兰大老鹰队
泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)，费城76人队
阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun)，休斯顿火箭队
库里是这组球员中唯一一位曾入选过NBA最佳阵容的球员。随着更多球员因伤退出竞争，首次入选的球员群体只会不断扩大。
从薪资角度来看，值得关注的球员是底特律活塞队的中锋杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren)，如果他能入选NBA最佳阵容，明年夏天作为受限制自由球员的他将有资格获得工资帽30%的顶薪合同。这一条款很少与自由球员产生关联，但杜伦在去年十月截止日前选择不提前续约，如今凭借迎来爆发的第四个赛季，其身价已大幅飙升。今年的各大奖项评选中，没有谁的利害关系比他更大了。
当然，杜伦目前正因脚踝扭伤而休战，不过预计他只会缺席一周，并且此前他只有四场比赛不满足评奖资格的出场时间要求。
NBA最佳阵容二队
安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)，明尼苏达森林狼队
科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)，洛杉矶快船队
多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，克利夫兰骑士队
贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray)，丹佛掘金队
卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)，纽约尼克斯队
随着NBA顶级中锋们因伤退出评奖资格，唐斯成了一位有意思的候选人。尽管NBA最佳阵容的投票现已不区分位置，但投票者们或许会寻求阵容的均衡性，而唐斯是目前有望满足评奖资格的顶级内线球员。
NBA最佳阵容一队
杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)，纽约尼克斯队
杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)，波士顿凯尔特人队
凯德·坎宁安 ， 底特律活塞队
卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)，洛杉矶湖人队
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
由于伤病原因，最佳阵容一队的面貌将大为不同。在上赛季的五位一阵成员中，塔特姆因跟腱断裂赛季报销，而约基奇（左膝过度伸展）将很难满足出场资格，阿德托昆博在赛季余下的比赛中则只能再缺席一场。（阿德托昆博目前仅缺席14场比赛，但他有两场虽披挂上阵但因伤提前离场，这两场比赛不计入有效出场次数。）
文班亚马的小腿拉伤让他缺席了NBA资格标准所允许的17场比赛中的12场。上周末因膝盖过度伸展再度缺阵，使缺席场次达到14场，并且文班亚马目前仍因膝盖酸痛处于每日观察状态。（在缺阵后，他因受出场时间限制，已经用掉了两次出场时间介于15至20分钟之间的有效比赛名额中的一次。）我不再预测他能获得评奖资格，即便文班亚马可以将NBA杯决赛计入他的65场最低出场数，这意味着他本赛季实际上可以缺席18场比赛。
好消息是，在伤病导致他上赛季无缘最佳阵容一队后，东契奇又重回竞争行列。如果能满足出场资格，他和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大是最轻松的选择。我选择了布伦森和坎宁安，是基于投票者会奖励战绩的假设，但安东尼·爱德华兹和多诺万·米切尔也同样有充分的理由。投票者不太可能奖励这么多后卫，这让布朗在我最后一个名额的选择中占得先机。
最佳教练
最大热门： J.B. 比克斯塔夫 (J.B. Bickerstaff)，底特律活塞队
竞争者： 米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson)，圣安东尼奥马刺队
潜在人选： 马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队；乔丹·奥特 (Jordan Ott)，菲尼克斯太阳队；埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉 (Erik Spoelstra)，迈阿密热火队
从历史上看，最佳教练奖项倾向于奖励那些既超越了外界预期，又取得了出色团队战绩的教练。这自然指向了比克斯塔夫：尽管他执教的活塞队甚至不是东部那支被看好的青年才俊球队（当时的热门是亚特兰大和奥兰多），但他们如今却高居分区榜首。
如果底特律最终以东部第一的战绩收官，比克斯塔夫的当选或许是毫无悬念的。然而，使用ESPN的篮球实力指数（BPI）进行的模拟显示，尼克斯队最终排名第一的可能性与活塞队不相上下。这可能会为约翰逊打开机会之门，他所执教的马刺队正处于竞争激烈的西部第二名争夺战中。
本赛季没有谁比太阳队更超出预期了，但自然而然，对于一支上赛季还在乐透区的球队来说，做到这一点要相对容易一些。尽管如此，若菲尼克斯能打进季后赛，奥特将成为一个有力的竞争者。如果媒体真的把票投给最出色的教练，戴格诺特和斯波尔斯特拉会是最大热门，但他们球队的战绩可能不足以超出预期，从而让他们赢得这个奖项。
最快进步球员
最大热门： 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)，波特兰开拓者队
竞争者： 基昂特·乔治 (Keyonte George)，犹他爵士队；杰伦·约翰逊，亚特兰大老鹰队
潜在人选： 杰伦·杜伦，底特律活塞队；瑞安·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins)，密尔沃基雄鹿队
这感觉有点像投票者们没有密切关注阿夫迪亚上赛季后半段的飙升表现，当时他场均能贡献23.3分、9.7个篮板和5.2次助攻。与那时相比，随着他在开拓者后场伤病潮中承担起组织前锋的角色，阿夫迪亚的得分和助攻均有提升，但进步幅度并没有那么惊人。
我更倾向于奖励乔治，一年前根据我的“胜利贡献值（WARP）”指标，他的表现低于替换水平，而现在他已经是一名高于平均水平的首发球员。即使在本赛季内部，乔治也实现了飞跃，他在十二月份场均得到27.7分——尽管这得益于可能难以维持的44%的三分命中率。
除了乔治之外，其他表现进步最明显的球员都处于他们的二年级，而这通常不是投票者们喜欢奖励的对象。（自2006-07赛季的蒙塔·埃利斯 (Monta Ellis) 以来，没有NBA二年级球员赢得过最快进步球员奖。）如果老鹰队选择交易走特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 并将进攻主导权交给约翰逊，他的候选资格可能会得到提升。
最佳第六人
最大热门： 小海梅·哈克斯 (Jaime Jaquez Jr.)，迈阿密热火队
竞争者： 尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)，亚特兰大老鹰队；安东尼·布莱克 (Anthony Black)，奥兰多魔术队；纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid)，明尼苏达森林狼队；里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)，休斯顿火箭队
潜在人选： 科林·吉莱斯皮 (Collin Gillespie)，菲尼克斯太阳队；阿杰伊·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
有趣的是，最佳第六人奖项并列的博彩热门人选（亚历山大-沃克）在本赛季绝大多数时间里都是首发出场。当老鹰队外线阵容齐整时，亚历山大-沃克会从替补席出战，他主要是顶替受伤的特雷·杨担任首发。
尽管亚历山大-沃克将是该奖项的有力人选，他场均得到生涯新高的20.3分，并扮演着持球防守尖兵的角色，但我打赌他最终将无法满足评选资格。毕竟，亚历山大-沃克能够（也已经）填补外线三个位置中的任何一个。他也可能凭借自己的表现直接挤进首发五人组。在亚历山大-沃克首发的比赛中，亚特兰大的战绩是14胜14负，而在他担任替补时则是1胜6负。
布莱克也处在类似的情况，他最好的表现（场均19.2分）来自于14场首发比赛。考虑到奥兰多首发五虎的实力，布莱克不太可能取代一个位置，但他同样能胜任多个位置。这使得哈克斯（目前以场均16.5分领跑所有合格候选人）、里德（这位2023-24赛季的获奖者本赛季场均得到生涯新高的14.5分）和谢泼德（场均13.5分和3.4次助攻）成为在数据产出和评选资格上最稳妥的组合。
年度最佳新秀
最大热门： 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，达拉斯独行侠队
竞争者： 康·克努普尔 (Kon Knueppel)，夏洛特黄蜂队；德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen)，新奥尔良鹈鹕队
潜在人选： 塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward)，孟菲斯灰熊队；VJ·埃奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe)，费城76人队
在很多年份，克努普尔都会是年度最佳新秀的绝对热门。他场均得到19.3分，三分命中率高达43%，并打破了多项新秀最快达成远投里程碑的纪录。与此同时，奎恩在一年前也会是明显的领跑者，他在23次首发中场均贡献14分、7.6个篮板和4.9次助攻，且效率高于平均水平。不幸的是，这届新秀非同寻常。
在赛季初段因不适应控卫位置而表现慢热后，弗拉格在十二月份场均砍下23.5分、6.2个篮板和4.8次助攻，投篮命中率达到54%，并在防守端填满了数据栏。他现在是博彩公司DraftKings上所有个人奖项中赔率最低的绝对热门，赔率达到-550。
年度最佳防守球员
最大热门： 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，俄克ла荷马城雷霆队
竞争者： 巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo)，迈阿密热火队；维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺队
潜在人选： 斯科蒂·巴恩斯，多伦多猛龙队；德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green)，金州勇士队；埃文·莫布里，克利夫兰骑士队；阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)，休斯顿火箭队
正如所料，高阶数据将文班亚马视为NBA中每回合防守影响力最大的球员。但在第二名人选上并没有太多共识，雷霆队的多名成员分享了他们联盟第一防守的功劳。霍姆格伦是最稳妥的选择，这也解释了为什么考虑到文班亚马可能无法满足评奖资格，他在DraftKings上的赔率实际上是最低的。但目前形势非常开放，从现在到四月，任何数量的其他候选人都有可能脱颖而出。
由于文班亚马上赛季没有资格参与奖项评选，因此他是否赢得年度最佳防守球员或入选NBA最佳阵容，实际上对他新秀续约合同的金额没有影响。文班亚马获得工资帽30%顶薪的资格将由2026-27赛季的表现决定，因为球员需要连续两个赛季获奖，才能确保在新秀合同的最后一个赛季开始前锁定该资格。
顺便一提，赢得年度最佳防守球员将使霍姆格伦有资格获得最高工资帽30%的新秀续约合同。然而，霍姆格伦去年七月签署的合同中不包含奖励条款，因此他的合同金额被锁定在工资帽的25%。
最有价值球员
最大热门： 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，俄克拉荷马城雷霆队
竞争者： 卢卡·东契奇，洛杉矶湖人队
潜在人选： 杰伦·布伦森，纽约尼克斯队；凯德·坎宁安，底特律活塞队；尼古拉·约基奇，丹佛掘金队；维克托·文班亚马，圣安东尼奥马刺队
约基奇的左膝伤病彻底打乱了看似已成的MVP双雄争霸格局，竞争的双方是上赛季的前两名。尽管在ESPN记者蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps) 发起的首轮MVP模拟投票中，约基奇落后于吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，但在12月29日这位掘金球星膝盖过度伸展之前，DraftKings将约基奇视为微弱的热门。
现在，吉尔杰斯-亚历山大成为了卫冕的绝对热门，而这实际上将创造一个首次：此前从未有过在首轮模拟投票中领跑的球员最终赢得该奖项。
目前尚未正式确认约基奇已退出竞争，但要满足出场资格将是一项挑战。他必须在1月30日之前回归掘金队的阵容——这距离他预定接受复查的四周大关仅几天之隔——并且在赛季余下的比赛中一场不落。
这使得东契奇拥有第二好的MVP赔率。他个人已经打出了MVP水准的表现，但我对湖人队能否保住西部前六的排名持怀疑态度，而这或许是他威胁吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的必要门槛。他们22胜11负的战绩得益于在关键时刻比赛中的全胜记录。湖人队+0.1的净胜分在西部仅排第八，落后于金州勇士队，而净胜分通常是预测未来表现的更佳指标。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA awards 2025-26: Predictions for All-NBA teams, MVP winner
NBA awards 2025-26: Predictions for All-NBA teams, MVP winner
Will the last NBA star eligible for awards please turn out the lights?
As we approach the midpoint of the NBA regular season – on Thursday, the Atlanta Hawks will become the first team to reach 41 games – the league’s rule requiring 65 qualifying games for the biggest individual awards is making headlines for all the wrong reasons.
Nikola Jokic’s bid for a fourth MVP, which had him as a slight favorite over reigning winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, almost certainly ended with a hyperextension of his knee on Dec. 29. And although Victor Wembanyama avoided serious injury, the two games he has missed since experiencing his own knee hyperextension on New Year’s Eve could also prevent him from qualifying.
With three 2024-25 All-NBA picks already out of the mix (Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Williams) and Giannis Antetokounmpo also on the verge of missing too many games, this year’s awards could have a very different look. All-NBA in particular is meaningful because of its impact on eligibility for supermax criteria.
Last season, Cade Cunningham (All-NBA third team) and Evan Mobley (Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA second team) triggered escalators that increased their rookie extensions to 30% of the cap rather than the 25% that would otherwise be the maximum. We’ll keep an eye on similar situations while running through the current leaders, contenders and long shots for each of the NBA’s most prestigious individual honors – for now.
Jump to an award:
All-NBA: First team | Second team | Third team
Awards: MVP | DPOY | ROY | Sixth Man | MIP | COY
All-NBA third team
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
Alperen Sengun, Houston Rockets
Curry is the only player in this group with an All-NBA selection to his credit. And the pool of first-timers should only grow as additional players suffer injuries that knock them out of contention.
The player to watch from a financial standpoint is Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren, who would be eligible for the 30% max criteria as a restricted free agent next summer if he makes All-NBA. Rarely is that provision relevant for free agents, but Duren opted against signing an extension before the October deadline and has now increased his value dramatically with a breakthrough fourth season. Nobody has more at stake from this year’s awards.
Naturally, Duren is currently sidelined with an ankle sprain, though he’s expected to miss only a week and previously had just four non-qualifying games.
All-NBA second team
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
Towns becomes an interesting candidate as injuries knock the NBA’s top centers out of qualification. Although All-NBA balloting is now positionless, voters might seek to balance their lineups, and Towns is the top big man on track to qualify for awards.
All-NBA first team
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
Cade Cunningham**,** Detroit Pistons
Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
The first team will have a very different look because of injuries. Of last year’s five picks, Tatum is out with an Achilles rupture, while Jokic (hyperextended left knee) will have a difficult time qualifying and Antetokounmpo can miss only one more game the rest of the season. (Antetokounmpo has sat out only 14 games thus far, but two of the games he suited up don’t count because he left early with an injury.)
Wembanyama’s calf strain sidelined him for 12 of the 17 games that the NBA’s eligibility criteria allow. Last weekend’s absence following a knee hyperextension made it 14, and Wembanyama remains day-to-day with knee soreness. (He has also used up one of the two qualifying games with between 15 and 20 minutes played while on a minutes restriction after his absence.) I’m no longer projecting him to be eligible even though Wembanyama gets to count the NBA Cup final toward his 65-game minimum, meaning he can actually miss 18 games this season.
The good news is Doncic is back in the mix after injuries ended his All-NBA first team streak last season. He and Gilgeous-Alexander are the easiest picks if eligible. I’ve gone with Brunson and Cunningham on the assumption voters will reward winning, but Anthony Edwards and Donovan Mitchell have strong cases in their own right. It’s doubtful that voters will reward so many guards, which gave Brown the edge for my last spot.
Coach of the Year
The favorite: J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons
Contender: Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs
Long shots: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder; Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns; Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat
Historically, Coach of the Year has tended to reward a combination of exceeding expectations and overall team success. That naturally points to Bickerstaff: Despite his Pistons not even being a trendy pick as the up-and-coming young team in the East (Atlanta and Orlando were), they’re atop the conference.
If Detroit finishes first in the East, Bickerstaff is probably a layup pick. However, simulations using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index still show the Knicks about as likely to finish in first place. That could open things up for Johnson, whose Spurs are in the wide-open fight for second in the West.
Nobody has outperformed expectations this season more than the Suns, but naturally, that’s a bit easier to do for a team that was in the lottery last year. Still, a Phoenix playoff berth would make Ott a strong contender. If the media actually voted for the best coach, Daigneault and Spoelstra would be the favorites, but their teams won’t likely exceed expectations enough to win the award.
Most Improved Player
The favorite: Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers
Contenders: Keyonte George, Utah Jazz; Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Long shots: Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons; Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks
This feels a bit like voters weren’t paying close attention to Avdija’s surge in the second half of last season, when he averaged 23.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 5.2 APG. Compared to that, Avdija’s scoring and assists are both up as he has taken on a point forward role amid the Blazers’ backcourt injuries, but less remarkably so.
I would be more likely to reward George, who rated below-replacement by my wins above replacement player metric a year ago and now rates as an above-average starter. Even within the season, George has taken a leap, averaging 27.7 PPG in December – albeit with the help of 44% 3-point shooting that might be challenging to maintain.
Besides George, the other players who have truly improved their performance the most are in their second year, which voters don’t typically like to reward. (No NBA sophomore has won Most Improved since Monta Ellis in 2006-07.) Johnson’s candidacy might get a boost if the Hawks move on from Trae Young and turn their offense over to him.
Sixth Man of the Year
The favorite: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
Contenders: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks; Anthony Black, Orlando Magic; Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves; Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets
Long shots: Collin Gillespie, Phoenix Suns; Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder
It’s amusing that the co-betting favorite for the Sixth Man award (Alexander-Walker) has started the vast majority of the season. When the Hawks have been at full strength on the perimeter, Alexander-Walker has come off the bench, filling in as a starter primarily in place of the injured Trae Young.
Although Alexander-Walker would be a strong choice for the award, averaging a career-high 20.3 PPG and serving as an on-ball stopper, I’m going to bet against him ultimately qualifying. After all, Alexander-Walker can (and has) fill in at any of the three perimeter spots. He also might just force his way into the starting five with his play. Atlanta is 14-14 in Alexander-Walker’s starts and 1-6 with him as a reserve.
Black is in a similar spot, with his best production (19.2 PPG) coming in 14 starts. Given the strength of Orlando’s starting five, Black won’t likely usurp a spot, but he, too, fills in at multiple positions. That makes Jaquez (who leads all current qualifiers with 16.5 PPG), Reid (a career-high 14.5 PPG for the 2023-24 winner) and Sheppard (13.5 PPG and 3.4 APG) the safest combo of production and eligibility.
Rookie of the Year
The favorite: Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
Contenders: Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets; Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans
Long shots: Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies; VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers
In many years, Knueppel would be the heavy favorite for Rookie of the Year. He’s averaging 19.3 PPG while shooting 43% from 3-point range and smashing records for fastest to various rookie long-distance milestones. Meanwhile, Queen would have been the clear leader a year ago, averaging 14 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 4.9 APG in 23 starts with above-average efficiency. Unfortunately, this is no ordinary rookie class.
After a slow start playing out of position at point guard, Flagg averaged 23.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 4.8 APG in December while shooting 54% from the field and filling out the box score on defense. He’s now the heaviest favorite for any individual award at DraftKings with minus-550 odds.
Defensive Player of the Year
The favorite: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
**Contenders:**Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat; Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Long shots: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors; Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors; Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers; Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
Advanced metrics predictably have Wembanyama as the most impactful defender in the NBA on a per-possession basis. There’s not much consensus on No. 2, with several members of the Thunder splitting credit for their top-ranked defense. Holmgren is the safest choice, which explains why he actually has the lowest odds at DraftKings factoring in the likelihood for Wembanyama failing to qualify. But things are wide-open enough that any number of other candidates could emerge between now and April.
Because Wembanyama was not eligible for awards last season, whether he wins Defensive Player of the Year or makes an All-NBA Team actually has no impact on his rookie extension. Wembanyama’s eligibility for the 30% max will be determined by the 2026-27 season, since back-to-back awards are required to guarantee qualification heading into the last season of a player’s rookie contract.
Incidentally, winning Defensive Player of the Year would make Holmgren eligible for up to 30% of the cap on his rookie extension. However, the deal Holmgren signed last July does not include an escalator, so he is locked in at 25% of the cap.
Most Valuable Player
The favorite: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Contender: Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers
Long shots: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks; Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons; Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets; Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Jokic’s left knee injury upended what looked like a two-player race for MVP between last season’s top two finishers. Although Jokic finished behind Gilgeous-Alexander in the first installment of the MVP straw poll by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps, DraftKings had Jokic as a narrow favorite before the Nuggets star hyperextended his knee on Dec. 29.
Now, Gilgeous-Alexander is the overwhelming favorite to repeat, which would actually mark a first: The leader in the first straw poll has yet to go on to win the award.
It’s not yet official that Jokic is out of the mix, but qualifying will be a challenge. He would have to return to the Nuggets’ lineup by Jan. 30 – days after the four-week mark at which he’s scheduled to be reevaluated – and not miss a game the rest of the season.
That leaves Doncic with the second-best odds for MVP. He has performed at that level individually, but I’m skeptical of the Lakers’ chances of remaining in the top six, which is probably a necessary bar for him to threaten Gilgeous-Alexander. Their 22-11 record has been propped up by an undefeated record in clutch games. The Lakers’ plus-0.1 point differential ranks eighth in the West, behind the Golden State Warriors, and that tends to be a better predictor going forward.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN