By Zach Kram | ESPN, 2025-12-26 20:00:00
作为NBA赛程表上的璀璨明珠之一，今年的圣诞大战对阵名单几乎囊括了联盟所有顶级强队。在此要向东部领头羊底特律活塞队道声歉，但可以说，那些有希望在明年春天走得更远的球队，大多数都在圣诞节这一天于全美直播的舞台上亮相了。
因此，在一系列激动人心的假日对决之后，让我们对这10支球队进行一次全面审视，分析他们冠军征途中的希望与隐忧，并为每支球队提供一个代表性的数据。本文将根据ESPN篮球实力指数 (BPI) 预测的晋级总决赛概率，对这10支球队进行排序分析。
快速跳转至球队：
CLE | DAL | DEN | GSW
HOU | LAL | MIN
NYK | OKC | SAS
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (26-5, 总决赛概率64.4%)
带来希望的数字：9.9
根据Basketball Reference的数据，本赛季俄克拉荷马雷霆队每百回合失分比联盟平均水平低9.9分。此前，自1973-74赛季（首次有防守效率记录的年份）以来的最高纪录，由2003-04赛季的马刺队保持，为比联盟平均水平低8.8分。
在上个赛季雷霆主要凭借联盟最佳防守赢下总冠军之后，这支防守大队在2025-26赛季已经达到了历史前所未有的高度。
引发担忧的数字：12%
俄克拉荷马雷霆队赛程强度不均已成为一个讨论点，但其赛季初段的轻松程度值得再次强调：在雷霆队取得24胜1负的开局期间，25场比赛中只有3场（12%）的对手是底特律活塞、纽约尼克斯或西部排名前六的球队。然而，他们剩余的57场比赛中，有21场（37%）将要面对这些顶级强队。
在（三次，包括圣诞大战）输给马刺和森林狼之后，雷霆队目前在与其他顶级强队的交锋中战绩为3胜4负，净胜分为-0.6。其中一场胜利还是通过双加时战胜火箭所得。相比之下，雷霆队对阵所有其他球队的战绩为23胜1负，场均净胜分高达+18.2。
尽管如此，卫冕冠军仍然是毫无疑问的头号夺冠热门。但他们很可能不得不在季后赛中击败多支精英球队——而这绝不会像他们之前通过在面对非精英对手时常规性的大胜，才刷出了他们创纪录的净胜分那样轻松。
纽约尼克斯 (21-9, 总决赛概率35.7%)
带来希望的数字：40%
侧翼球员米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)、OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 和约什·哈特 (Josh Hart) 三人合计的三分球命中率达到了40%，并且三人的命中率都至少在38%以上。这与上赛季相比是一个巨大的飞跃，当时这三人组的命中率仅为35.7%，且只有阿奴诺比的三分命中率高于联盟平均水平。
如果这一趋势能够持续，其重要性怎么强调都不过分：如果防守方无法放空尼克斯的这三名侧翼球员，那么他们就无法轻易地协防尼克斯的两位主要得分手——杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)。特别是，对手经常采用让中锋去防守哈特，以便用一名前锋去对位唐斯的策略，将不再奏效——前提是哈特能稳定命中因此产生的大量空位三分。
引发担忧的数字：40%
在上周之前，米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 的罚球仅为27投6中，命中率22%。此后他13罚10中，将赛季总命中率提升至40%，但这仍然是一个令人担忧的比率。他的体型和进攻篮板能力使罗宾逊成为这支尼克斯队中至关重要的一员；本赛季当他在场时，纽约的净效率为+8.5，无论他是场上唯一的内线大个，还是与唐斯组成双塔阵容，球队表现都非常出色。
如果对手能够在季后赛中通过“砍米切尔”战术（他在季后赛生涯罚球命中率仅为39%）将他逼下场，那将对尼克斯的季后赛前景造成巨大打击。
丹佛掘金 (21-8, 总决赛概率12.7%)
带来希望的数字：-1.1
在经历了多年缺少尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 在场时的严重失分后，掘金队终于在他下场时能够稳住阵脚。以下是过去五个赛季约基奇在替补席上时丹佛的净效率：
- 2021-22赛季：每百回合-7.9分
- 2022-23赛季：每百回合-10.4分
- 2023-24赛季：每百回合-8.6分
- 2024-25赛季：每百回合-9.3分
- 2025-26赛季：每百回合-1.1分
掘金休赛期的引援在这里功不可没：约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯 (Jonas Valanciunas) 是这位三届MVP身后可靠的替补中锋，而布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown) 和小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 也帮助稳定了替补阵容。
这一进步尤其令人印象深刻，因为阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon)——在过去几个赛季中，当约基奇休息时他负责带领前场——因腿筋拉伤已缺席一个多月。这意味着丹佛在没有约基奇的比赛时间里，有89%的时间戈登也不在场。这对于掘金在季后赛中维持这种“无约基奇”时段的新水平而言，是一个极好的迹象。
引发担忧的数字：12%
目前，掘金拥有联盟历史上效率最高的进攻。但丹佛的防守强度足以支撑他们再夺一冠吗？约基奇和他的队友们在防守端仅排名第17位，部分原因是据Cleaning the Glass统计，对手投篮中有高达12%是极具价值的底角三分，这一比例为联盟最高。而对手在这些投篮上的命中率为37%，与联盟底角三分的平均水平相当。
休斯顿火箭 (18-10, 总决赛概率12.4%)
带来希望的数字：43%
得益于史蒂文·亚当斯 (Steven Adams)、阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun) 以及整体上身材高大的轮换阵容，本赛季火箭队的进攻篮板率比联盟平均水平高出43%，这是NBA历史上遥遥领先的优势。在一个进攻篮板率相对较低的时代，根据Basketball Reference的数据，休斯顿拥有自1994-95赛季以来的最高进攻篮板率，也是有记录以来前十的水平之一。（进攻篮板数据可追溯至1973-74赛季）
这里有一个让火箭球迷兴奋的趣闻：之前经过联盟平均水平调整后的进攻篮板率纪录，属于2015-16赛季的雷霆队，他们抢下进攻篮板的频率比NBA平均水平高出31%。那些额外的进攻机会帮助雷霆将73胜9负的勇士队逼入了西部决赛的第七场，若不是克莱·汤普森的手感火热，一场巨大的冷门就已酿成。或许十年后，这项异于常人的技能也能帮助火箭队在另一场对决中脱颖而出。
引发担忧的数字：26%
在本赛季至少出手100次跳投的174名球员中，阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 的跳投有效命中率以26%垫底，而申京则以42%排名第163位。
尽管新加盟火箭的凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 是球队的得分王，但球队最终的季后赛希望可能取决于申京和汤普森这对在休斯顿前途光明的年轻组合的发展。虽然这两位球员本赛季在多方面都有所进步——申京应该能第二次入选全明星——并且在球队得分榜上分列第二和第三，但他们在远离篮筐区域的得分能力依然挣扎。
火箭队的其他球员，例如杜兰特和二年级后卫里德·谢泼德 (Reed Sheppard)，都是顶级射手。但在季后赛的关键时刻，场上同时有两名不擅投射的球员，或者如果为了篮板优势亚当斯也加入，场上甚至有三名非射手，情况可能会变得非常棘手。
克利夫兰骑士 (17-15, 总决赛概率9.9%)
带来希望的数字：2
在西部，仍有六支球队的失利场次在10场或以下，而东部只有两支。这意味着，即使战绩为17胜15负，克利夫兰距离东部前四和季后赛首轮的主场优势也只有1.5个胜场差。如果将骑士队的战绩放到西部，他们距离前四已经有四个胜场的差距了。
在上周输给芝加哥之前，骑士队主教练肯尼·阿特金森 (Kenny Atkinson) 援引了2021-22赛季波士顿凯尔特人队的例子，那也是一支花了一段时间才完成磨合的天赋球队：那支凯尔特人开局25胜25负，随后以一波26胜6负结束常规赛，并最终闯入了总决赛。阿特金森没有提到的是，当时帮助凯尔特人崛起的另一个因素是东部整体竞争较弱，头号种子迈阿密热火队的战绩仅为53胜29负。
考虑到克利夫兰在2025-26赛季糟糕的开局，球队最大的希望来源就是，今年的东部也能提供一条同样宽容的晋级之路。
引发担忧的数字：2200万美元
骑士队是今年唯一一支薪资超过第二土豪线的球队，而且他们并非只是稍稍越线，而是高出了2200多万美元。这不仅对老板丹·吉尔伯特 (Dan Gilbert) 来说是个问题，他为一支表现不佳的球队支付着天价薪水；这对球队的场上表现也是个麻烦，因为它意味着骑士队在通过赛季中期交易来改善阵容、重回正轨的选择上更少。他们无法在交易中吃进比送出球员薪资更高的合同，无法打包多名球员的薪水进行交易，也无法签下任何在被买断前薪水高于联盟平均水平的买断球员。
圣安东尼奥马刺 (23-7, 总决赛概率6.1%)
带来希望的数字：101.7
雷霆队历史级的防守每百回合失分为104.6分。而当维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在场时，马刺队的百回合失分仅为101.7分。
在本赛季场均出战15分钟以上且出场超过15场的球员中，个人防守效率排名前四的球员都在雷霆队。紧随其后的是文班亚马，他仅凭一己之力就将一支原本防守低于平均水平的球队提升为令人恐惧的铁军。
引发担忧的数字：28.8%
在本赛季（至少出场15场）每36分钟得分至少20分的28名后卫中，只有四人的三分命中率在30%或以下：迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)、斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)、德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 和 T.J.·麦康奈尔 (T.J. McConnell)。名单上的这两位马刺年轻后卫合计的三分命中率为28.8%，包括在圣诞大战上的3投0中。
到目前为止，所有这些远投失手还没有拖慢马刺队的脚步。事实上，当卡斯尔和哈珀同时在场的阵容拥有高达+23.0的净效率，进攻出色，防守更是令人窒息。
此外，在一个非常小的样本中，卡斯尔、哈珀和文班亚马同时在场的阵容表现出的统治力简直令人难以置信：净效率高达+51.1，换算成原始数据，则是在55分钟内净胜对手59分。
尽管如此，卡斯尔和哈珀那难看的三分数据为季后赛埋下了一个潜在的警示信号。届时，聪明且专注的防守方会压缩文班亚马在内线的空间，迫使他的年轻队友们在外线投篮命中。他们能否做到这一点，或许将决定圣安东尼奥今年是否是真正的总决赛威胁，还是说马刺队在准备好征服西部之前，仍需要更多历练。
金州勇士 (16-15, 总决赛概率1.2%)
带来希望的数字：111.0
在西部，只有雷霆队的防守效率优于勇士队的111.0。德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 毫不避讳地将勇士队近年的冠军版本誉为防守型球队，他所言非虚：在他们四个夺冠赛季中，球队的防守分别排名联盟第一、第二、第十一和第二。有了这样的先例，勇士队在2025-26赛季仍然可以被看作是潜在的争冠黑马。
引发担忧的数字：42
然而，勇士队防守实力的另一面，是进攻端的疲软，这也导致金州勇士的战绩一直在五成左右徘徊：根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，勇士队的进攻效率仅排在第23位，这是斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 时代的最差表现（不计入伤病缠身的2019-20赛季）。一个主要症结在于缺少轻松得分的机会，勇士队场均内线得分仅为42分——是除篮网外所有球队中最低的。
由于在外线的强大实力，勇士队从来都不是最依赖内线得分的球队，但在他们成功的赛季里，也从未在联盟垫底。在2014-15赛季至2017-18赛季的四年巅峰期，他们的内线得分分别排名联盟第二、第九、第七和第十六。
明尼苏达森林狼 (20-10, 总决赛概率1.4%)
带来希望的数字：11.2
尽管外界一直议论森林狼需要一位纯正的控球后卫——尤其是在将38岁的迈克·康利 (Mike Conley) 的首发位置交给丹特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo) 之后——但他们的新首发阵容表现一直相当不错。实际上，何止是不错——在全联盟出场时间最高的264分钟里，由迪文琴佐、安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)、杰登·麦克丹尼尔斯 (Jaden McDaniels)、朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 和鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 组成的五人组，净效率高达+11.2。
作为参考，上赛季出场时间至少250分钟的五人阵容中，只有三套阵容的净效率超过+11.2，而他们所在的球队——波士顿、俄克拉荷马城和印第安纳——要么是以夺冠热门的姿态进入2024-25赛季季后赛，要么最终闯入了总决赛。
引发担忧的数字：18.4
然而，有一个情况凸显了明尼苏达缺少纯正控卫的问题：森林狼在关键时刻的失误率高达18.4%，是联盟中最差的，遥遥领先于其他球队。另外仅有的两支失误率超过14%的球队是快船和开拓者。
通常在关键时刻，由于球队获得更多罚球和采用更多单打，失误率会下降。但森林狼的情况恰恰相反，他们在总失误率上排名联盟第13位，却深受特定于关键时刻的问题困扰。
这些比赛末段的失误直接导致了森林狼的失利，比如在对阵菲尼克斯的比赛中最后时刻的崩盘，使他们无缘NBA杯的四分之一决赛。他们不能再像现在这样，在季后赛的胶着比赛中挥霍球权了。
洛杉矶湖人 (19-10, 总决赛概率1.1%)
带来希望的数字：10-0
关键时刻的表现很大程度上是随机的；预测关键时刻胜率的最佳指标是球队的整体胜率，因为整体实力强的球队在关键时刻通常也表现出色。因此，湖人队在关键时刻比赛中10胜0负的战绩，与他们在所有其他比赛中9胜10负的战绩之间存在着一种不协调。
但如果真有一支球队能够在比分胶着的比赛中持续打出超常表现，那很可能就是这支拥有三位顶级进攻创造者和全联盟最佳罚球差的湖人队。湖人队的整体数据或许不会让人惊艳，但可以想见，没有哪支西部竞争者愿意在比赛最后几分钟的平局时刻面对卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)、勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)。
具体来说：虽然湖人队还未与掘金交手，且他们与雷霆和火箭的唯一交锋分别以29分和圣诞大战的23分惨败告终，但他们本赛季对阵马刺的战绩为1胜1负。他们输给圣安东尼奥的比赛是在NBA杯四分之一决赛中的一场大败，但他们的胜利则是一场2分险胜，当时东契奇在比赛还剩两分钟时命中了一记打破僵局的三分球。
引发担忧的数字：4.9
说到那些整体数据：根据Cleaning the Glass的统计，湖人队的净效率表明他们“理应”取得约14.1场胜利，而非实际的19场。这4.9个胜场的差距是联盟中最大的。
简而言之，历史上没有先例表明一支履历如此平庸的球队能够夺得总冠军：湖人队场均净负0.5分，而在现代季后赛赛制下（自1983-84赛季以来），净胜分最差的总冠军是1994-95赛季的火箭队，为+2.1分。（那支火箭队在赛季中期交易来了克莱德·德雷克斯勒，这桩交易广为人知，但实际上他们在交易前战绩为30胜17负，净胜分+3.1，交易后则为17胜18负，净胜分+0.9。）
然而，近年来有多支总决赛球队在经历了一个平庸的常规赛后，在季后赛中状态火热。2022-23赛季的热火队场均净负0.3分，而2023-24赛季的独行侠和2024-25赛季的步行者场均净胜分也仅为+2.2分。
达拉斯独行侠 (12-20, 总决赛概率0.0%)
带来希望的数字：12.0
独行侠赛季初没有纯正控球后卫的配置臭名昭著，导致了大量的进攻挣扎，但莱恩·内姆哈德 (Ryan Nembhard) 的出现堪称一大惊喜发现：自从这位落选秀新秀在11月28日进入首发阵容以来，达拉斯的进攻效率每百回合提升了12.0分。
在此之前，独行侠战绩为5胜14负，进攻效率排名联盟第30，有效命中率排名第29，失误率排名第28。但有了内姆哈德组织进攻后，达拉斯取得了7胜6负的战绩，进攻效率排名第9，有效命中率排名第8，失误率排名第9。
引发担忧的数字：98
与名单上的其他球队相比，独行侠更多是为未来而战，而非当下。因此，一个重大的担忧是，21岁的德雷克·莱夫利二世 (Dereck Lively II)——他看起来是球队的长期中锋人选——新秀赛季仅出战55场，上赛季出战36场，而在2025-26赛季因脚部手术提前报销前也只打了7场比赛。总共算下来，他只打了98场比赛，仅占三个NBA赛季可出场比赛数的40%。
莱夫利、库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 以及可能还有内姆哈德，应该能组成一个出色的年轻核心，在未来十年共同成长。但现在越来越难指望莱夫利能保持健康地留在场上了。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA Christmas games: What should give 10 teams title hope, concerns
NBA Christmas games: What should give 10 teams title hope, concerns
As befits one of the crown jewels of the NBA’s calendar, this year’s Christmas slate featured almost all of the best teams in the league. With apologies to the East-leading Detroit Pistons, it’s likely that most of the teams that will play deep into next spring also played in front of a national audience on Christmas.
So after a thrilling set of holiday games, let’s take a survey of these 10 teams and analyze the reasons to be hopeful or concerned about their championship ambitions, with one representative statistic for each. They are ordered here by their probability of reaching the Finals, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.
Jump to a team:
CLE | DAL | DEN | GSW
HOU | LAL | MIN
NYK | OKC | SAS
Oklahoma City Thunder (26-5, 64.4% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 9.9
Oklahoma City is allowing 9.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average this season, according to Basketball Reference. The previous record, going back to 1973-74 (the first year with recorded defensive ratings), is from the 2003-04 Spurs, at 8.8 points below average.
A season after the Thunder won the title largely because they boasted the NBA’s best defense, that unit has reached a historically unprecedented level in 2025-26.
Number that inspires concern: 12%
Oklahoma City’s lopsided schedule has been a discussion point, but it’s worth emphasizing just how easy its early slate was: During the Thunder’s 24-1 start, only three of their 25 games (12%) came against Detroit, New York or teams in the top six in the West. But 21 of their last 57 games (37%) are scheduled against those top-tier teams.
After losses to the Spurs (three times, including on Christmas) and Timberwolves, the Thunder are now 3-4 with a minus-0.6 point differential against the other best teams in the league, with one of those wins coming in double overtime against the Rockets. For comparison, the Thunder are 23-1 with a plus-18.2 scoring margin against all other teams.
The defending champions remain the clear title favorite regardless. But they’ll likely have to beat multiple elite teams in the playoffs – and that won’t come nearly as easily as the routine blowouts against non-elite competition that have built up their record point differential.
New York Knicks (21-9, 35.7% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 40%
Wings Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are combining to make 40% of their 3-pointers, with all three at 38% or better. That’s a big step up from last season, when that trio was at 35.7% and only Anunoby was making his 3s at an above-average rate.
It’s hard to overstate how important this trend is if it continues: If defenses can’t play off the Knicks’ three wings, then they can’t easily help against Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, New York’s two leading scorers. In particular, the frequent opponent strategy of defending Hart with a center to match a forward against Towns can’t work if Hart is nailing so many of his resulting open 3s.
Number that inspires concern: 40%
Before last week, Mitchell Robinson was just 6-for-27 on free throws, or 22%. He’s since gone 10-for-13, boosting his overall season average to 40%, but that’s still a worrisome rate. His size and offensive rebounding prowess make Robinson a vital member of this Knicks squad; New York has a plus-8.5 net rating with him on the floor this year, excelling both when Robinson is the lone big and when he plays in a Twin Towers alignment with Towns.
It would be a huge blow to the Knicks’ playoff chances if opponents can knock Robinson – a career 39% free throw shooter in the playoffs – off the floor with a Hack-a-Mitch tactic.
Denver Nuggets (21-8, 12.7% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: Negative-1.1
The Nuggets are finally holding steady when Nikola Jokic leaves the floor, after years of heavy losses without him. Here is Denver’s net rating over the past five seasons with Jokic on the bench:
- 2021-22: Negative-7.9 points per 100 possessions
- 2022-23: Negative-10.4
- 2023-24: Negative-8.6
- 2024-25: Negative-9.3
- 2025-26: Negative-1.1
The Nuggets’ offseason additions deserve most of the credit here: Jonas Valanciunas is a solid backup center behind the three-time MVP, and Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. have also helped stabilize the bench.
This improvement is especially impressive because Aaron Gordon – who has led the frontcourt when Jokic rested in previous postseasons – hasn’t played in more than a month due to a hamstring strain. That means 89% of Denver’s non-Jokic minutes have come with Gordon also on the bench. That’s a great sign for Denver’s chances of maintaining this new level in non-Jokic minutes in the playoffs.
Number that inspires concern: 12%
At the moment, the Nuggets boast the most efficient offense in league history. But can the Denver defense hold up enough to win another title? Jokic & Co. rank only 17th on defense, in part because a league-high 12% of their opponents’ shot attempts are valuable corner 3s, per Cleaning the Glass. They’re making 37% of those attempts, which is about league average from the corners.
Houston Rockets (18-10, 12.4% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 43%
Thanks to Steven Adams, Alperen Sengun and a generally massive rotation, the Rockets’ offensive rebounding rate is 43% higher than the league average this season, which is by far the best margin in NBA history. In an era with relatively low offensive rebounding rates, Houston has the highest rate since 1994-95, according to Basketball Reference, and one of the 10 best on record. (Offensive rebound data goes back to 1973-74.)
And here’s a fun fact for Rockets fans: The previous record for league-adjusted offensive rebounding rate belonged to the 2015-16 Thunder, who grabbed offensive rebounds 31% more frequently than the NBA average. Those extra chances helped the Thunder push the 73-9 Warriors to Game 7 in the conference finals, with only a Klay Thompson heater preventing a massive upset. Perhaps this outlier skill could help the Rockets in another showdown a decade later.
Number that inspires concern: 26%
Among 174 players with at least 100 jump shots this season, Amen Thompson ranks last with a 26% effective field goal percentage on jumpers, while Sengun ranks 163rd at 42%.
Though new Rocket Kevin Durant leads the team in scoring, the team’s ultimate playoff hopes might rest on the development of Sengun and Thompson, the young duo with a bright future in Houston. And while both players have improved in various ways this season – Sengun should make his second All-Star team – and rank second and third on the team in scoring, they still struggle to score away from the basket.
Other Rockets, such as Durant and second-year guard Reed Sheppard, are knockdown shooters. But crunch time in the playoffs could be tricky with two non-shooters on the floor, or even a third if Adams joins for an edge on the boards.
Cleveland Cavaliers (17-15, 9.9% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 2
While six teams in the West still have 10 losses or fewer, only two in the East do. That means that even at 17-15, Cleveland is still just 1.5 games out of a top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Translate the Cavs’ record to the Western Conference, and they’d already be four games out of a top-four seed.
Before a loss in Chicago last week, Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson invoked the memory of the 2021-22 Boston Celtics as another talented team that took a while to jell: Those Celtics started 25-25, then finished the regular season on a 26-6 stretch and reached the Finals. One factor that aided those Celtics’ run – but Atkinson didn’t mention – was weak conference competition, as the top-seeded Miami Heat went just 53-29.
Given Cleveland’s rotten start in 2025-26, the team’s biggest source of hope is that the East will offer a similarly forgiving path this year.
Number that inspires concern: $22 million
The Cavaliers are the only team above the second apron this year, and they’re not even close to that financial threshold, at just over $22 million north of the line. That’s not just a point of concern for owner Dan Gilbert, who’s paying top dollar for an underachieving team; it’s also a problem for the on-court product, because it means the Cavaliers have fewer options to improve their roster and get back on track with in-season transactions. They can’t take back more money in a trade than they send out, they can’t aggregate salaries in a trade, and they can’t sign any buyout players whose pre-buyout salary was more than the league average.
San Antonio Spurs (23-7, 6.1% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 101.7
The Thunder’s historically great defense is allowing 104.6 points per 100 possessions. When Victor Wembanyama is on the floor, the Spurs are allowing 101.7.
Among players averaging 15-plus minutes in 15-plus games this year, the top four players in individual defensive rating are on the Thunder. Next is Wembanyama, who elevates an otherwise below-average defense into a fearsome terror by himself.
Number that inspires concern: 28.8%
Out of 28 guards averaging at least 20 points per 36 minutes this season (minimum 15 games), only four are shooting 30% or worse on 3-pointers: Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Booker and T.J. McConnell. The two young Spurs on that list are a combined 28.8% from distance, including an 0-for-3 showing on Christmas.
Thus far, all those long-range misfires haven’t slowed the Spurs down. In fact, lineups with Castle and Harper playing together have a massive plus-23.0 net rating, with a good offense and stifling defense.
In a very small sample, moreover, lineups with Castle, Harper and Wembanyama playing together have been so dominant that the numbers are hard to believe: a plus-51.1 net rating or, in raw numbers, a plus-59 scoring margin in 55 minutes.
Nevertheless, those unsightly 3-point numbers from Castle and Harper provide a potential warning sign for the playoffs, when smart, locked-in defenses will crowd Wembanyama’s space inside and force his young teammates to make shots from the perimeter. Whether they can may determine whether San Antonio is a true threat to reach the Finals this year, or whether the Spurs need more seasoning before they’re ready to win the West.
Golden State Warriors (16-15, 1.2% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 111.0
The Thunder are the only Western Conference team with a better defensive rating than the Warriors’ 111.0. Draymond Green isn’t shy about celebrating the recent championship editions of the Warriors as defensive teams, and he’s not wrong: Their defense ranked first, second, 11th and second in their four championship seasons. With that precedent in mind, the Warriors still profile as sleeper contenders in 2025-26.
Number that inspires concern: 42
The flip side of the Warriors’ defensive strength, however, is an offensive weakness that has kept Golden State hovering around .500: The Warriors rank just 23rd in offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass, which is the worst mark of the Stephen Curry era (not counting the injury-ravaged 2019-20 campaign). One chief culprit is a lack of easy buckets, as the Warriors are scoring just 42 points per game in the paint – the fewest for any team except the Nets.
Because of their strength on the perimeter, the Warriors have never been the most paint-heavy team, but they’ve never ranked at the bottom of the league when successful, either. During their four-year peak from 2014-15 through 2017-18, they ranked second, ninth, seventh and 16th in points in the paint.
Minnesota Timberwolves (20-10, 1.4% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 11.2
For all the chatter about how the Timberwolves need a true point guard, after giving 38-year-old Mike Conley’s starting spot to Donte DiVincenzo, their new starting lineup has been just fine. More than fine, in fact – in a league-high 264 minutes, the five-man unit of DiVincenzo, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert has a plus-11.2 net rating.
For reference, only three five-man lineups with at least 250 minutes last season had a better net rating than plus-11.2, and their teams – Boston, Oklahoma City and Indiana – either entered the 2024-25 playoffs as favorites or reached the Finals.
Number that inspires concern: 18.4
There is, however, one situation in which Minnesota’s lack of a true point guard stands out: The Timberwolves have a clutch turnover rate of 18.4%, which is by far the worst in the league. The only other teams above 14% are the Clippers and Trail Blazers.
Turnover rate tends to decrease in the clutch, as teams take more free throws and use more one-on-one play. But the opposite is true for the Timberwolves, who rank 13th in overall turnover rate but suffer from a clutch-specific problem.
Those late-game giveaways have directly contributed to Timberwolves losses, like a last-minute collapse against Phoenix that kept them out of the NBA Cup quarterfinals. They can’t afford to sacrifice possessions in close games in the playoffs like they have until now.
Los Angeles Lakers (19-10, 1.1% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 10-0
Clutch performance tends to be mostly random; the best predictor of clutch winning percentage is overall winning percentage, because good teams overall tend to also be good in the clutch. So there’s dissonance between the Lakers’ 10-0 record in clutch games and 9-10 record in all other contests.
But if there ever were a team that could consistently overachieve in close games, it would be a Lakers squad with three elite creators and the best free throw differential in the league. The Lakers won’t wow anyone with their overall numbers, but presumably no Western Conference contender would want to face Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves in the final minutes of a tie game.
To wit: While the Lakers haven’t played the Nuggets yet and their only games against the Thunder and Rockets were losses by 29 points and 23 points on Christmas, respectively, they’re 1-1 against the Spurs this season. Their loss against San Antonio was a blowout in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but their win came by two points when Doncic sank a tie-breaking 3-pointer with two minutes left.
Number that inspires concern: 4.9
Speaking of those overall numbers: The Lakers’ net rating says they “should” have about 14.1 wins, according to Cleaning the Glass, instead of their actual 19. That 4.9-win gap is by far the largest in the league.
Simply put, there is no precedent for a team with such a mediocre résumé winning the title: The Lakers are being outscored by 0.5 points per game, and in the modern playoff format (since 1983-84), the champion with the worst point differential was the 1994-95 Rockets, at plus-2.1. (Those Rockets famously traded for Clyde Drexler during the season, but they actually dropped from 30-17 with a plus-3.1 differential before the trade to 17-18 with a plus-0.9 differential after.)
However, multiple recent finalists have caught fire in the playoffs after a middling regular season. The 2022-23 Heat were outscored by 0.3 points per game, and both the 2023-24 Mavericks and 2024-25 Pacers were at plus-2.2 points apiece.
Dallas Mavericks (12-20, 0.0% Finals chance)
Number that inspires hope: 12.0
The Mavericks infamously started the season without a true point guard, leading to copious offensive struggles, but Ryan Nembhard has been a revelation: Since the undrafted rookie joined the starting lineup on November 28, Dallas’ offensive rating has jumped by 12.0 points per 100 possessions.
Before then, the Mavericks were 5-14 and ranked 30th in offense, 29th in effective field goal percentage and 28th in turnover rate. But with Nembhard running the offense, Dallas is 7-6 with the No. 9 offense, No. 8 eFG% and No. 9 turnover rate.
Number that inspires concern: 98
More than any other team on this list, the Mavericks are playing for the future rather than the present. So it’s a major concern that 21-year-old Dereck Lively II, who looks like the team’s long-term center, played just 55 games as a rookie, 36 games last season and seven games before his 2025-26 campaign ended early because of foot surgery. In all, that’s only 98 games, or 40% of the available games in three NBA seasons.
Lively, Cooper Flagg and possibly Nembhard should form a great young core who can grow together over the course of a decade. But it’s growing harder to count on Lively to stay on the court.
By Zach Kram | ESPN, via ESPN