By ESPN Staff | ESPN, 2025-12-26 02:00:00
圣诞节通常是家人团聚、共享篮球盛宴的时刻，但在这个假日季，NFL正向NBA发起新的挑战。
继去年圣诞节上演NFL双赛日后，联盟今年在晚间又增加了一场对决，以此拉开第17周的序幕。这三场NFL对决均为分区内战。与此同时，NBA则将连续第18年（全部在ABC/ESPN播出）在圣诞节当天呈现其常规的五场比赛盛宴。
这八场圣诞大战的密集赛程可能会让您应接不暇，因此我们为您整理了一份全方位的观赛指南。我们两大体育领域的记者和分析师对每场对决进行了深入剖析，内容包括最大看点、关键数据、大胆预测、梦幻体育X因素以及投注精粹（赔率由DraftKings Sportsbook提供）。此外，我们还利用ESPN的橄榄球与篮球实力指数（FPI/BPI），通过比赛预测深入解读数据。对于NFL比赛，我们还分析了其对仅剩两周便将开打的季后赛的席位影响。
让我们一同进入这八场精彩对决。（比赛按开赛时间顺序排列，已进行或已结束的比赛位于文末。）
跳转至NBA对决：
骑士-尼克斯 | 马刺-雷霆 | 独行侠-勇士
火箭-湖人 | 森林狼-掘金
跳转至NFL对决：
牛仔-指挥官 | 雄狮-维京人 | 野马-酋长
马刺 (22-7) vs 雷霆 (26-4)
美国东部时间下午2:30 | ABC/ESPN | 雷霆 -10.5 (总分盘233.5)
最大看点： 在马刺队终结了雷霆队在NBA杯半决赛中的16连胜后，有一点变得清晰：我们正见证着这两支球队未来数年激烈宿敌之争的开端。
自从因左小腿拉伤缺阵12场比赛复出以来，维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 已经连续五场替补出战。考虑到他回归后的四场比赛中，出场时间均未超过22分钟，这一趋势很可能将继续下去。
除了两队之间悄然萌芽的宿敌关系，请密切关注文班亚马与切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 之间的一对一较量。当被问及马刺与雷霆的竞争时，文班亚马始终保持谦逊，但在这两支年轻且充满渴望的球队之间，一场大战似乎正在酝酿，而文班亚马和霍姆格伦则站在了这场对决的最前沿。 – 迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)
关键数据： 如前所述，当文班亚马替补出场并带领马刺队在NBA杯中爆冷取胜时，那只是他职业生涯第五次与霍姆格伦交手，也是自2024年10月以来的首次。根据Stathead.com的数据，在这几次交锋中，文班亚马场均贡献24.4分、12.3个篮板和3.3次盖帽，而霍姆格伦则为场均18.7分、7.8个篮板和1.5次盖帽。 – 佩尔顿 (Pelton)
大胆预测： 文班亚马将得到40分。本赛季至今，还没有任何对手在面对雷霆的比赛中砍下40+，常规时间内的最高分仅为32分，但文班亚马热爱大场面。上赛季他的圣诞大战首秀中，面对尼克斯队就曾砍下42分和18个篮板。 – 克拉姆 (Kram)
梦幻体育看点： 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 整个赛季都在carry梦幻球队。他场均贡献53.1梦幻积分，仅次于文班亚马、卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)。本赛季他已有23场比赛得分30+，自联盟合并以来，只有迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) (1986-87赛季) 能与之匹敌。 – 穆迪 (Moody)
最佳投注： 马刺（+9.5）胜雷霆（-115）。马刺已经证明了他们并不畏惧雷霆。本赛季马刺对雷霆2胜0负……而雷霆对其他所有球队的战绩是26胜2负。在NBA杯半决赛中击败雷霆后，马刺在周二又以20分的优势再次取胜。雷霆对文班亚马束手无策；在他们两次交锋中，当文班在场的44分钟里，他们净负34分。 – 斯内林斯 (Snellings)
克拉姆预测： 雷霆 110, 马刺 104
佩尔顿预测： 雷霆 120, 马刺 108
BPI预测： 雷霆胜，概率74.1%
必读对决分析： 可能塑造西部格局的马刺-雷霆宿敌之争正在萌芽 … 击败雷霆的五步指南
雄狮 (8-7) vs 维京人 (7-8)
美国东部时间下午4:30 | Netflix | 雄狮 -6 (总分盘44.5)
雄狮队动态： 主教练丹·坎贝尔 (Dan Campbell) 本周向球队传达的信息很简单：“向前看。” 尽管遭遇了自2022年以来的首次连败，坎贝尔仍在推动球队在“情绪、心理和身体上”做好准备，以强势收官2025赛季。“我渴望能赢下一场这样的节日大战，”冲传手艾丹·哈钦森 (Aidan Hutchinson) 说，“感恩节那场比赛至今还让我火大。所以，我想，那就把圣诞大战给我拿下。心态就是这样。” – 埃里克·伍德亚德 (Eric Woodyard)
维京人队动态： 维京人将努力确保外接手贾斯汀·杰斐逊 (Justin Jefferson) 的赛季接球码数能够突破1000码——这句话听起来可能有些荒谬，但却是事实。杰斐逊唯一一个到第17周时接球码数远未超过1000码的赛季是2023年，当时他因腿筋撕裂缺席了七场比赛。但维京人队在四分卫位置上的挣扎，以及杰斐逊自己出人意料的失常，让他在15场比赛后码数仅停留在917码。这意味着他还差83码，即每场平均41.5码。这完全可以实现，但值得注意的是，在过去七场比赛中，杰斐逊有四场比赛的接球码数低于41码。 – 凯文·塞弗特 (Kevin Seifert)
关键数据： 在上周战胜巨人队的比赛中，明尼苏达的接球手们在上半场出现了三次脱手，这是他们自2017年第14周以来上半场脱手次数最多的一次。维京人队以26次脱手，与酋长队和野马队并列联盟第二多。 – ESPN Research
大胆预测： 雄狮队角卫D.J.里德 (D.J. Reed) 将被杰斐逊完成一次达阵。根据NFL Next Gen Stats的数据，自里德在第12周从腿筋伤势中回归以来，他每次负责盯防时平均让对手推进1.9码，表现相当糟糕。 – 沃尔德 (Walder)
关键利害： 维京人已被淘汰出季后赛争夺，而雄狮队如果周四输球或包装工队周六赢球，也将步其后尘。根据FPI，底特律进入季后赛的概率为7%。查看季后赛模拟器。 – ESPN Research
梦幻体育看点： 雄狮队跑卫贾米尔·吉布斯 (Jahmyr Gibbs) 在过去两场比赛中总冲球码数仅为40码，但他作为接球手仍有贡献，期间完成了14次接球，推进86码并有一次达阵。吉布斯在第9周对阵明尼苏达时表现挣扎，仅得到5.8梦幻积分。查看第17周排名。 – 穆迪
投注精粹： 维京人队过去三场比赛让分盘全胜（3-0 ATS）。雄狮队过去六场比赛让分盘战绩为1胜5负（1-5 ATS）。阅读更多。 – ESPN Research
马尔多纳多预测： 雄狮 29, 维京人 18
穆迪预测： 雄狮 27, 维京人 20
沃尔德预测： 雄狮 31, 维京人 24
FPI预测： 雄狮胜，概率68.4%（平均净胜7.3分）
必读对决分析： 维京人的麦卡锡因手部发丝状骨折缺阵 … NFL第16周：雄狮、海盗、乌鸦、小马到底出了什么问题？
独行侠 (12-19) vs 勇士 (15-15)
美国东部时间下午5点 | ABC/ESPN | 勇士 -7.5 (总分盘226.5)
最大看点： 克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson) 的重逢之战将备受关注。在为勇士效力13年并参加了9场圣诞大战后，他将第三次回到旧金山，面对他的前东家。汤普森为独行侠近期的强势反弹做出了贡献，本月他场均替补出战21分钟，得到11.8分。
不过，库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 才是独行侠的头号焦点。这位状元秀将在他的圣诞大战首秀中，于一个传奇云集的舞台上展示自己，而此时他正渐入佳境。在过去一个月里，弗拉格曾分别砍下33分、35分和42分。
对于勇士队而言，关键在于紧迫感。他们本赛季仍怀揣着冲击总冠军的边缘希望，但目前却在平庸中挣扎。这场比赛是他们有利赛程的一部分——他们需要在为时已晚之前积累胜场，并在排名上有所提升。 – 安东尼·斯莱特 (Anthony Slater)
关键数据： 斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 保持着NBA历史上为单一球队投中三分球最多的纪录，雷吉·米勒 (Reggie Miller) 排名第二。但排名第三的正是汤普森，他在勇士的11个赛季里共投中了2,481记三分。上赛季，他作为客队球员在大通中心的三场比赛中，30次出手命中了16记三分。 – 克拉姆
大胆预测： 勇士队将至少命中18记三分球。在他们获得两天休息时间的五场比赛中，他们有四次做到了这一点，并取得了4胜1负的战绩。总的来说，当勇士队在一场比赛中投进至少18记三分时，他们的战绩为7胜2负。 – 佩尔顿
梦幻体育看点： 安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 在12月的表现堪称卓越，场均贡献49.1梦幻积分。周一晚上对阵鹈鹕，他上演了一场大师级表演，砍下35分和17个篮板。这是他职业生涯第45次单场至少得到35分和15个篮板，自2012-13赛季进入联盟以来，这一数据高居榜首。扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 和尼古拉·约基奇并列第二，各有31次这样的表现。 – 穆迪
最佳投注： 弗拉格得分超过20.5分（-107）。赛季初，独行侠尝试让他打控球后卫，导致弗拉格开局慢热，但在过去一个月回到他熟悉的小前锋位置后，他迎来了爆发。他近期状态火热，过去六场比赛场均得到26.7分，投篮命中率高达52.3%。在这六场比赛中，他有五场得分至少22分，其中两场更是达到33分或以上。 – 斯内林斯
克拉姆预测： 独行侠 113, 勇士 108
佩尔顿预测： 勇士 118, 独行侠 112
BPI预测： 勇士胜，概率72%
必读对决分析： 汤普森离开勇士背后的遗憾与反思 … 两位独行侠球员入选我们的最具价值阵容 … 格林与科尔争吵后离开勇士替补席
火箭 (17-10) vs 湖人 (19-9)
美国东部时间晚上8点 | ABC/ESPN | 火箭 -4.5 (总分盘228.5)
最大看点： 进入圣诞周前，火箭队在过去六场比赛中输了四场，排名有所下滑，而湖人队目前也面临着自身的问题：洛杉矶在上周末输给快船的比赛中，缺少了四名首发球员。因此，这两支球队的首次交锋可能双方都无法以最佳状态出战。
然而，考虑到休斯顿预计将成为西部季后赛席位的重要竞争者，无论谁能出场，这对湖人来说都将是一次重要的考验。
在湖人队最近两场对阵西部顶级强队的硬仗中，他们都表现平平。11月12日，卫冕冠军雷霆以121-92大胜他们。12月10日，在NBA杯四分之一决赛中主场迎战马刺——一场关乎拉斯维加斯门票和每位球员50万美元奖金的比赛——尽管文班亚马缺阵，马刺队仍在客场以132-119掌控了比赛。 – 戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin)
关键数据： 勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的连续得分上双纪录在本月早些时候终结，但他历史性的19次圣诞大战出场中，每场至少得到16分的纪录仍在延续。在圣诞大战中出场并保持每场至少得16分的第二长纪录保持者是凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，他与奥斯卡·罗伯特森 (Oscar Robertson) 以12场并列。詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) (10场)是唯一另一位拥有两位数场次纪录的球员，本赛季他将没有机会延续这一纪录。 – 佩尔顿
大胆预测： 詹姆斯和杜兰特得分都将超过30分。这两位超级巨星在他们名人堂级别的职业生涯中，已有15次在相互对决中同时砍下30+。由于卢卡·东契奇和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的伤病，詹姆斯需要承担更多进攻重任，他们将在圣诞节上演第16次这样的对飙。 – 克拉姆
梦幻体育看点： 杜兰特持续对抗着时间，凭借其顶级的投篮能力和精炼、纯熟的技术，将巅峰状态延续到了他三十多岁的后期，并持续转化为稳定的梦幻体育产出。本月早些时候，他成为继詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹之后，第三快达到30,000分、5,000篮板和5,000助攻的球员。杜兰特在对阵詹姆斯领衔的球队时表现也更为出色，自2018-19赛季以来，他面对詹姆斯场均得到28.0分、6.9个篮板和4.7次助攻。 – 穆迪
最佳投注： 詹姆斯得分超过19.5分（-122）。在经历长期伤病休养并逐渐找回状态后，詹姆斯在12月份悄然进入了他的得分模式。在过去六场比赛中，他有五场得分至少23分，期间场均得到26.8分。无论场上搭档是谁，他作为得分手一直表现稳健。而且这是圣诞大战；在聚光灯下打出精彩表现，是他职业生涯的标志。 – 斯内林斯
克拉姆预测： 火箭 125, 湖人 115
佩尔顿预测： 湖人 118, 火箭 114
BPI预测： 火箭胜，概率61.5%
必读对决分析： 勒布朗 vs. 时间老人：用数据看詹姆斯如何演变 … 杜兰特追逐第三冠的关键在于两位年轻球星 … 雷迪克在惨败后直言不讳地批评湖人的努力和防守
野马 (12-3) vs 酋长 (6-9)
美国东部时间晚上8:15 | Prime Video | 野马 -13.5 (总分盘36.5)
野马队动态： 线卫亚历克斯·辛格尔顿 (Alex Singleton) 可能最简洁地总结了野马队的目标：“我们还有两场比赛要打，去争取成为美联的头号种子。” 他们必须赢下这两场比赛，才能确保头号种子席位以及随之而来的主场优势。他们强大的防守组需要迅速反弹。他们从未面对过酋长队四分卫克里斯·奥拉多昆 (Chris Oladokun)，但长期以来，12月份在箭头球场的比赛对野马队来说一直是个难题。自1990年以来，丹佛在此类比赛中的战绩仅为3胜12负。 – 杰夫·勒格沃尔德 (Jeff Legwold)
酋长队动态： 酋长队的三号四分卫奥拉多昆，上周刚从堪萨斯城训练阵容中签下，预计将在对阵野马的比赛中迎来他NFL生涯的首次首发。他希望能充分利用这一时刻。“我们有很多年轻球员在场上，但这是一次很棒的经历，”28岁的奥拉多昆说，“这对我们来说将非常有价值。这是圣诞节。我有可能在圣诞节完成我的首次首发，这相当特别。家人也会来到现场。我对此充满期待。” – 内特·泰勒 (Nate Taylor)
关键数据： 酋长队本赛季已有六次在上半场未能得分，包括上周惨败给泰坦队的比赛。这是他们自2012年（11场）以来单赛季上半场被零封次数最多的一次。 – ESPN Research
大胆预测： 野马队四分卫博·尼克斯 (Bo Nix) 将在上周输给美洲虎队后反弹，并以高于75的QBR（四分卫评分）结束比赛。尼克斯目前的QBR为59，但当面对突袭时，这个数字跃升至82。堪萨斯城有35%的回合会采用突袭战术，在NFL中排名第三。 – 沃尔德
关键利害： 野马队若取胜且闪电队在周六输球，即可锁定美联西区冠军。如果丹佛获胜，同时闪电、爱国者、比尔和美洲虎都在第17周输球，他们也有机会获得头号种子席位。查看季后赛模拟器。 – ESPN Research
梦幻体育看点： 跑卫RJ·哈维 (RJ Harvey) 和野马队的冲球进攻应该能在一支刚被泰坦队跑卫泰贾·斯皮尔斯 (Tyjae Spears) 和托尼·波拉德 (Tony Pollard) 合砍31.7梦幻积分的堪萨斯城防守面前大放异彩。哈维将受益于野马队进攻锋线的掩护，该锋线在冲球掩护成功率上排名第五。查看第17周排名。 – 穆迪
投注精粹： 36.5分的总分盘是酋长队自2008年以来主场比赛中的最低值，也与他们过去十年中任何比赛的最低总分盘持平。阅读更多。 – ESPN Research
马尔多纳多预测： 野马 24, 酋长 10
穆迪预测： 野马 23, 酋长 13
沃尔德预测： 野马 24, 酋长 17
FPI预测： 野马胜，概率55.6%（平均净胜2.5分）
必读对决分析： 一次随机药检如何可能拯救了亚历克斯·辛格尔顿的生命 … 酋长队同意在堪萨斯州的穹顶球场比赛的协议 … 酋长队四分卫明休避免前十字韧带撕裂
森林狼 (20-10) vs 掘金 (21-8)
美国东部时间晚上10:30 | ABC/ESPN | 掘金 -4.5 (总分盘237.5)
最大看点： 森林狼逆转雷霆是一场宣言式的胜利吗？明尼苏达整个赛季在面对优质对手时都表现挣扎，直到安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 完成了一次罕见的关键时刻三连击——在最后一分钟命中反超三分、送出一次盖帽并完成一次抢断，其中两次防守都是针对卫冕MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大。
森林狼面对胜率五成及以上球队的战绩为3胜8负，但他们上赛季开局也同样迟缓，之后及时磨合到位，连续第二年闯入西部决赛。
明尼苏达2024年的西部决赛之旅是以牺牲尼古拉·约基奇和掘金队为代价的，当时森林狼在丹佛完成惊天逆转，赢得了第二轮的抢七大战。
高原主场氛围通常能帮助丹佛拥有联盟最佳主场优势之一，但掘金最近在波尔球馆 (Ball Arena) 的表现出奇地糟糕，过去七个主场输掉了五场。 – 蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)
关键数据： 回溯到2024年季后赛第二轮，森林狼曾对丹佛取得过六连胜，包括那轮系列赛的抢七大战以及去年四月的一场双加时鏖战。但掘金本赛季打破了这一连胜，在十月和十一月都战胜了明尼苏达。 – 克拉姆
大胆预测： 爱德华兹将成为圣诞节当天所有比赛中的得分王。丹佛缺少了防守他的两名最佳选择：克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun) 和阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 都因伤缺阵。尽管掘金还有其他选择，布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown)、斯宾塞·琼斯 (Spencer Jones) 和佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 都可能轮流防守爱德华兹，但他们在一对一限制他方面没有那么多经验。 – 佩尔顿
梦幻体育看点： 爱德华兹场均得到职业生涯新高的28.3分，这得益于他进攻手段的丰富。他在低位进攻的效率大大提高，能持续惩罚身材较小的防守者，将错位优势转化为轻松得分。这一新增的进攻维度使他跻身联盟顶级得分手行列。 – 穆迪
最佳投注： 贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 总得分+助攻超过31.5（-106）。在过去一个月，穆雷的产出大幅提升，尤其是在首发球员阿隆·戈登和克里斯蒂安·布劳恩受伤后。在他最近的九场比赛中，他场均得到29.0分和7.1次助攻（总计36.1），其中有七场比赛（包括过去五场中的四场）的总和超过了31.5。本赛季两次对阵森林狼，他的得分+助攻也都超过了31.5，11月15日他得到23分和12次助攻，而在10月27日则砍下43分和3次助攻。 – 斯内林斯
克拉姆预测： 掘金 120, 森林狼 112
佩尔顿预测： 森林狼 116, 掘金 111
BPI预测： 掘金胜，概率59.9%
必读对决分析： 探寻真实的约基奇 … 约基奇打破贾巴尔保持的中锋职业生涯助攻纪录
早前比赛
骑士 (17-14) vs 尼克斯 (20-9)
美国东部时间中午12点 | ESPN/ABC | 尼克斯 -5.5 (总分盘237.5)
最大看点： 当赛程公布时，联盟可能认为这将是东部决赛的预演，但骑士队一直步履维艰，现在又因小腿拉伤失去了埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)。而尼克斯队——尤其是在主教练迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 重新启用上赛季的首发五虎后——则代表了骑士队渴望成为的一切：强硬。
尼克斯的进攻也渐入佳境，效率高居联盟第二。卫冕周最佳球员杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 状态火热，在进入周二晚的比赛前，他过去八场比赛场均贡献32.3分和6.8次助攻，三项命中率高达51/41/83——这与本赛季达里乌斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 的表现形成鲜明对比，后者正受困于本应在休赛期接受手术的草皮趾伤病。
在加兰找回状态之前，骑士队无法走出困境；否则，就将是多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 独自对抗尼克斯。 – 文森特·古德威尔 (Vincent Goodwill)
关键数据： 一个月前，骑士队和尼克斯队在战绩榜上并驾齐驱，分别为11胜6负和9胜6负。但自11月24日以来，克利夫兰输掉的比赛（八场）和纽约整个赛季的输球数一样多，这位NBA杯冠军在骑士队近期的持续低迷中取得了12胜3负的战绩。 – 扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram)
大胆预测： 米切尔，自2021年以来首次在圣诞节出战，将开启他在过去两个季后赛场均29.6分的模式，并将本赛季第九次得分超过35分。 – 凯文·佩尔顿 (Kevin Pelton)
梦幻体育看点： 本赛季的骑士队看起来截然不同。一年前他们的攻防效率都排在前十，而现在他们进攻排第十，防守排第十六。他们的三分命中率也仅为34.6%，低于去年的38.3%。加兰的投篮挣扎和莫布里的伤缺更是雪上加霜。米切尔是个例外——他场均得分（30.7分）、三分命中数（4.1个）和使用率（32.3）均创下生涯新高。 – 埃里克·穆迪 (Eric Moody)
最佳投注： 布伦森得分超过29.5分（-111）。在因脚踝保养缺席周二比赛前，布伦森状态火爆。他在之前的七场比赛中场均得到33.1分，五次得分30+，两次40+。他有在大场面爆发的习惯，而在麦迪逊广场花园的圣诞大战是常规赛中最盛大的舞台。他还将面对友好的骑士队外线防守，后者在限制对方控球后卫得分方面排名联盟第20位。 – 安德烈·斯内林斯 (Andre’ Snellings)
克拉姆预测： 尼克斯 123, 骑士 111
佩尔顿预测： 尼克斯 118, 骑士 116
BPI预测： 尼克斯胜，概率61.1%
必读对决分析： 可能影响开放东部竞争格局的五位X因素球员 … 尼克斯教练迈克·布朗视伯尼·比克斯塔夫为他最重要的导师
牛仔 (6-8-1) vs 指挥官 (4-11)
美国东部时间下午1点 | Netflix | 牛仔 -7 (总分盘50.5)
牛仔队动态： 已经无缘季后赛的牛仔队，在赛季末对阵指挥官和巨人队的比赛中，动力来自于荣誉感、争取不败战绩以及另一件事。“我充满动力的事实是，我们这周和下周都要打国联东区的对手，”教练布莱恩·肖滕海默 (Brian Schottenheimer) 说。“我们想赢。为了保持一些成功，我们有机会在分区内战中取得5胜1负的战绩。我的意思是，这可是国联东区。”四分卫达克·普雷斯科特 (Dak Prescott) 在职业生涯中对阵这两支球队的总战绩为26胜4负。 – 托德·阿彻 (Todd Archer)
指挥官队动态： 在这个支离破碎的赛季中，已经没什么可以挽回的了，指挥官队甚至无法扮演搅局者。但他们确实需要止住对达拉斯的颓势。在这对宿敌的过去九次交锋中，牛仔队赢了七次，包括在西北体育场的最近两次。减少失误会有所帮助。华盛顿的失误差为-12，在第6周以22-44输给达拉斯的比赛中为-2。在他们过去九次对阵牛仔队的比赛中，指挥官队的失误差为-13。 – 约翰·凯姆 (John Keim)
关键数据： 在普雷斯科特担任首发四分卫的14场对决中，指挥官队场均失分高达33.6分。这是所有球队在面对另一支拥有现役四分卫的球队时，场均失分最高纪录。 – ESPN Research
大胆预测： 牛仔队近端锋杰克·弗格森 (Jake Ferguson) 将自10月19日（两队上次交手）以来首次单场完成至少七次接球。除了这段特定的历史，这主要是一种直觉。弗格森在赛季初是进攻端的重要组成部分，但此后表现较为沉寂。 – 塞思·沃尔德 (Seth Walder)
关键利害： 牛仔队在第16周老鹰队击败指挥官队后，被淘汰出季后赛争夺。华盛顿早已无缘季后赛，根据FPI预测，他们将拥有第7顺位选秀权。查看季后赛模拟器。 – ESPN Research
梦幻体育看点： 普雷斯科特、跑卫贾文特·威廉姆斯 (Javonte Williams) 以及外接手塞迪·兰姆 (CeeDee Lamb) 和乔治·皮肯斯 (George Pickens) 都应该被放入首发阵容，因为他们面对的是整个赛季都被打穿的指挥官队防守。华盛顿让对手四分卫拿到的梦幻积分排在联盟第四多，跑卫第六多，外接手第九多。查看第17周排名。 – 穆迪
投注精粹： 指挥官队的让分盘战绩为5胜10负，与NFL中最差纪录持平。他们作为受让方的让分盘战绩为3胜9负。阅读更多。 – ESPN Research
帕梅拉·马尔多纳多预测： 牛仔 44, 指挥官 24
穆迪预测： 牛仔 27, 指挥官 20
沃尔德预测： 牛仔 30, 指挥官 13
FPI预测： 牛仔胜，概率56.1%（平均净胜2.7分）
必读对决分析： 在肖滕海默执教的第一个赛季里，牛仔队做对了什么？
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2025 Christmas NFL, NBA game schedule, picks, odds, previews
2025 Christmas NFL, NBA game schedule, picks, odds, previews
Christmas Day is usually a time for family and basketball, but the NFL is presenting a new challenge for the NBA this holiday season.
After a doubleheader of NFL games on Christmas last year, the league added one more matchup at night to kick off Week 17. All three NFL matchups are between divisional opponents. Meanwhile, the NBA is set to feature its regular slate of five games (all on ABC/ESPN) for the 18th straight year.
This eight-game Christmas spread can be a lot to take in, so we put together an all-encompassing guide for Thursday. Our reporters and analysts from both sports broke down every matchup, including the biggest storylines, key stats, bold predictions, fantasy X factors and betting nuggets (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook). Plus, we used ESPN’s Football and Basketball Power Index to go inside the numbers with game projections. For the NFL games, we also included ramifications for the playoffs, which begin in just two weeks.
Let’s get to all eight contests. (Games are listed in chronological order by start time, with games already underway or completed at the bottom.)
Jump to an NBA matchup:
CLE-NYK | SA-OKC | DAL-GS
HOU-LAL | MIN-DEN
Jump to an NFL matchup:
DAL-WSH | DET-MIN | DEN-KC
Spurs (22-7) at Thunder (26-4)
2:30 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | OKC -10.5 (233.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: After the Spurs snapped the Thunder’s 16-game winning streak in the NBA Cup semifinals, one thing is clear: We’re at the beginning of what should be a heated rivalry for years to come between these teams.
Victor Wembanyama has come off the bench in five consecutive games since his return from a 12-game absence due to a left calf strain. There’s a good chance the trend continues considering he hasn’t played more than 22 minutes in the four games he has been back.
In addition to the budding team rivalry, pay close attention to the individual one-on-one battle between Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren. Wembanyama maintains a sense of humility when asked about the rivalry between the Spurs and the Thunder, but it appears something big is brewing between these young, hungry teams, with Wembanyama and Holmgren standing at the forefront. – Michael C. Wright
Stat to know: As noted, when Wembanyama came off the bench to key the Spurs’ upset win in the NBA Cup, it was just his fifth career matchup against Holmgren and the first since October 2024. Wembanyama has averaged 24.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG and 3.3 BPG to Holmgren’s 18.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 1.5 BPG, per Stathead.com. – Pelton
Bold prediction: Wembanyama will score 40 points. No opposing player has reached 40-plus points in a game against the Thunder yet this season – the most in regulation is just 32 – but Wembanyama loves a big stage. He had 42 points and 18 rebounds in his Christmas debut last season against the Knicks. – Kram
Injuries: Spurs | Thunder
Fantasy nugget: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has carried fantasy teams all season. He is averaging 53.1 fantasy points per game, trailing Wembanyama, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. He already has 23 games with 30-plus points this season, a pace matched only by Michael Jordan (1986-87) since the merger. – Moody
Best bet: Spurs +9.5 over Thunder (-115). The Spurs have proven they are not intimidated by the Thunder. The Thunder are 0-2 against the Spurs this season … and 26-2 against every other team. After defeating the Thunder in the semifinal of the NBA Cup, the Spurs backed that up with a 20-point win on Tuesday. The Thunder have no answer for Wembanyama; they have been outscored by 34 points in the 44 minutes he has played in their two matchups. – Snellings
Kram’s pick: Thunder 110, Spurs 104
Pelton’s pick: Thunder 120, Spurs 108
BPI prediction: OKC, 74.1%
Matchup must-reads: The budding Spurs-Thunder rivalry that could shape the West … A five-step guide on how to beat the Thunder
Lions (8-7) at Vikings (7-8)
4:30 p.m. ET | Netflix | DET -6 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Coach Dan Campbell’s message to the team this week was simple: “Move forward.” Despite suffering back-to-back losses for the first time since 2022, Campbell is pushing the team to be ready “emotionally, psychologically, physically” to finish the 2025 season strong. “I’d love to win one of these holiday games,” said edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. “The Thanksgiving game still pisses me off. So, I’m like, just give me Christmas. That’s kind of the mentality.” – Eric Woodyard
What we’re hearing on the Vikings: The Vikings will make an effort to ensure that wide receiver Justin Jefferson eclipses 1,000 receiving yards for the season, a sentence that might seem preposterous but is in fact very real. The only other season that Jefferson hasn’t been well over 1,000 yards by Week 17 was 2023, when he missed seven games because of a torn hamstring. But the Vikings’ struggles at quarterback, and Jefferson’s own surprising lapses, have left him at 917 yards in 15 games. That leaves him 83 yards short, or an average of 41.5 yards per game. It’s very doable, but it’s worth noting that Jefferson has had fewer than 41 yards in four of his past seven games. – Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Minnesota receivers dropped three passes in the first half of last week’s win over the Giants, which was their most in a first half since Week 14 of 2017. The Vikings are tied with the Chiefs and Broncos for the second-most drops (26). – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Lions cornerback D.J. Reed will allow a touchdown to Jefferson. Since Reed returned from his hamstring injury in Week 12, he has allowed a very rough 1.9 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. – Walder
What’s at stake: The Vikings have already been eliminated from playoff contention, and the Lions could join them with a loss Thursday or a Packers win Saturday. Detroit has a 7% chance to make the playoffs, per FPI. See Playoff Machine. – ESPN Research
Injuries: Lions | Vikings
Fantasy nugget: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been held to just 40 total rushing yards over the past two games, but he has still produced as a receiver with 14 catches, 86 receiving yards and a touchdown over that span. Gibbs struggled against Minnesota in Week 9, finishing with just 5.8 fantasy points. See Week 17 rankings. – Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 3-0 ATS in their past three games. The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their past six games. Read more. – ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 29, Vikings 18
Moody’s pick: Lions 27, Vikings 20
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Vikings 24
FPI prediction: DET, 68.4% (by an average of 7.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ McCarthy out with hairline fracture in hand … NFL Week 16: What went wrong for Lions, Bucs, Ravens, Colts?
Mavericks (12-19) at Warriors (15-15)
5 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | GS -7.5 (226.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The Klay Thompson reunion will get plenty of attention. After 13 years and nine Christmas games with the Warriors, he is making his third return trip to San Francisco to face his former team. Thompson has been a contributor to a recent Mavericks surge, averaging 11.8 points in 21 minutes off the bench this month.
Cooper Flagg has been the headliner for the Mavericks, though. The rookie No. 1 pick will get a showcase for his debut Christmas game on a floor full of legends just as he’s hitting his stride. Flagg has scoring nights of 33, 35 and 42 points over the past month.
On the Warriors’ side, it’s about urgency. They have fringe contention aspirations this season but are toiling in mediocrity. This matchup is part of a favorable portion of the schedule – they need to accumulate wins and make a move in the standings before it’s too late. – Anthony Slater
Stat to know: Stephen Curry has the most 3-pointers for a single team in NBA history, and Reggie Miller ranks second. But it’s Thompson who ranks third, with his 2,481 3s in 11 seasons as a Warrior. He made 16 3s on 30 attempts in three games as a visitor at the Chase Center last season. – Kram
Bold prediction: The Warriors will make at least 18 3-pointers. They’ve done so four times in the five games they’ve played with two days of rest, going 4-1 in those games. Overall, the Warriors are 7-2 when they knock down at least 18 triples in a game. – Pelton
Injuries: Mavericks | Warriors
Fantasy nugget: Anthony Davis has been superb in December, averaging 49.1 fantasy points per game. He put on a master class against the Pelicans on Monday night with 35 points and 17 rebounds. It was his 45th career game with at least 35 points and 15 rebounds, the most in the league since he entered in 2012-13. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic are tied for second with 31 such games. – Moody
Best bet: Flagg over 20.5 points (-107). Flagg had a slow start to the season as the Mavericks tried him at point guard, but he has broken out in the past month since moving back to his natural small forward slot. He has been scorching of late, averaging 26.7 PPG on 52.3 FG% in his last six games. He has scored at least 22 points in five of those six, and 33 or more in two of the six. – Snellings
Kram’s pick: Mavericks 113, Warriors 108
Pelton’s pick: Warriors 118, Mavericks 112
BPI prediction: GS, 72%
Matchup must-reads: The regrets and reflections in Thompson’s Warriors exit … Two Mavs make our All-Value Team … Green leaves Warriors’ bench after argument with Kerr
Rockets (17-10) at Lakers (19-9)
8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | HOU -4.5 (228.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The Rockets have slipped in the standings with four losses in their past six games coming into Christmas week, and the Lakers have their own problems at the moment: Los Angeles was down four starters in its loss to the Clippers over the weekend. So, the first matchup between these two teams might not feature either at their best.
With Houston figuring to be a factor in the West playoff picture, however, it will be an important test for the Lakers, no matter who is available to play.
In the Lakers’ past two high-leverage games against the West’s best, they came out flat. The defending champion Thunder trounced them 121-92 on Nov. 12. And hosting the Spurs in the NBA Cup quarterfinals Dec. 10 with a trip to Las Vegas and a shot at $500,000 per player on the line, the Spurs controlled the action in a 132-119 road win, despite Wembanyama being out. – Dave McMenamin
Stat to know: LeBron James’ double-figure scoring streak ended earlier this month, but his streak of scoring at least 16 points in all 19 of his historic Christmas Day appearances lives on. The next-most games played on Christmas while scoring at least 16 points in all of them: Kevin Durant, who is tied with Oscar Robertson for 12 each. James Harden (10) is the only other player with a double-digit streak, which he won’t have the opportunity to extend this season. – Pelton
Bold prediction: James and Durant will both score more than 30 points. The two superstars have reached 30 against each other 15 times across their Hall of Fame careers, and with James handling a greater offensive load due to injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, they’ll do so for a 16th time on Christmas. – Kram
Injuries: Rockets | Lakers
Fantasy nugget: Durant continues to defy time, extending his prime into his late 30s with elite shotmaking and a refined, technical game that consistently translates to fantasy production. Earlier this month, he became the third-fastest player to reach 30,000 points, 5,000 rebounds and 5,000 assists, trailing only James and Michael Jordan. Durant has also elevated his play against James-led teams, averaging 28.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG and 4.7 APG versus James since the 2018-19 season. – Moody
Best bet: James over 19.5 points (-122). After easing his way back into the lineup after a long injury layoff, James has quietly found his scoring groove in the month of December. He has scored at least 23 points in five of the past six games, averaging 26.8 PPG in that span. He has been rock-solid as a scorer, regardless of who has been on the floor with him. And it’s a Christmas Day game; he has made a career out of performing when the lights shine brightest. – Snellings
Kram’s pick: Rockets 125, Lakers 115
Pelton’s pick: Lakers 118, Rockets 114
BPI prediction: HOU, 61.5%
Matchup must-reads: LeBron vs. Father Time: How James has changed, by the numbers … Durant’s chase for a third ring comes down to two young stars … Redick blunt about Lakers’ effort, defense after blowout
Broncos (12-3) at Chiefs (6-9)
8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video | DEN -13.5 (36.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: Linebacker Alex Singleton might have summarized the Broncos’ to-do list the most succinctly: “We’ve got two games to go and be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.” They have to win both games to guarantee themselves the No. 1 seed and the home playoff games that come with it. And a quick bounce-back from their powerful defense is needed. They’ve never faced Chiefs quarterback Chris Oladokun, but December games in Arrowhead have long been an issue for the Broncos. Since 1990, Denver is 3-12 in such games. – Jeff Legwold
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: Oladokun, the Chiefs’ third-string quarterback who was signed from Kansas City’s practice squad last week, is expected to make his first NFL start against the Broncos. He hopes to make the most of this moment. “We have a lot of young guys playing, but it’s a great experience,” said Oladokun, 28. “It’s going to be real valuable for us. It’s Christmas Day. The possibility of me making my first start on Christmas Day is pretty special. I’ll have family in town. I’m looking forward to it.” – Nate Taylor
Stat to know: The Chiefs have failed to score in the first half six times, including during last week’s blowout loss to the Titans. That’s been their most in a single season since 2012 (11 games). – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix will rebound after last week’s loss to the Jaguars and finish with higher than a 75 QBR. Nix has a 59 QBR, but that number jumps to 82 when facing the blitz. Kansas City blitzes 35% of the time, third most in the NFL. – Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch the AFC West with a win and a Chargers loss Saturday. Denver also has a shot at the No. 1 seed if it wins and the Chargers, Patriots, Bills and Jaguars all lose in Week 17. See Playoff Machine. – ESPN Research
Injuries: Broncos | Chiefs
Fantasy nugget: Running back RJ Harvey and the Broncos’ rushing attack should shine against a Kansas City defense that just surrendered 31.7 fantasy points to Titans running backs Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. Harvey gets the benefit of running behind a Broncos offensive line that ranks fifth in run block win rate. See Week 17 rankings. – Moody
Betting nugget: That 36.5 number is the lowest over/under in a Chiefs home game since 2008 and tied for their lowest total in any game in the past decade. Read more. – ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 10
Moody’s pick: Broncos 23, Chiefs 13
Walder’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: DEN, 55.6% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: How a random drug test helped potentially save Alex Singleton’s life … Chiefs agree to deal to play in dome in state of Kansas … Chiefs QB Minshew avoids ACL tear
Timberwolves (20-10) at Nuggets (21-8)
10:30 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | DEN -4.5 (237.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: Was the Timberwolves’ comeback over the Thunder a statement win? Minnesota had struggled all season against quality competition until Anthony Edwards pulled off a rare clutch trifecta – hitting a go-ahead 3, blocking a shot and making a steal in the final minute, with the two defensive plays coming against reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Wolves are 3-8 against teams that are .500 or better, but they also got off to a sluggish start last season before gelling in time to make their second straight run to the Western Conference finals.
Minnesota’s 2024 conference finals appearance came at the expense of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, as the Wolves pulled off a massive comeback in Denver to win Game 7 of the second round.
The mile-high atmosphere typically helps Denver have one of the league’s best home-court advantages, but the Nuggets have been surprisingly bad at Ball Arena recently, losing five of their past seven home games. – Tim MacMahon
Stat to know: Dating back to the second round of the 2024 postseason, the Timberwolves had won six consecutive games against Denver, including Game 7 of that playoff series and a double-overtime thriller last April. But the Nuggets broke that streak this season, with wins against Minnesota in October and November. – Kram
Bold prediction: Edwards will lead all players across all games in scoring on Christmas Day. Denver is without its two best defensive options against him: Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon, both sidelined by injury. And though the Nuggets have other choices, with Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson all likely to spend time defending Edwards, they don’t have as much experience containing him one-on-one. – Pelton
Injuries: Timberwolves | Nuggets
Fantasy nugget: Edwards is averaging a career-high 28.3 PPG, fueled by an expansion in his offensive game. He has become far more effective operating out of the post, consistently punishing smaller defenders and turning mismatches into easy offense. That added dimension has elevated him into the league’s top tier of scorers. – Moody
Best bet: Jamal Murray over 31.5 total points + assists (-106). Murray has stepped up his production in a major way in the past month, particularly after starters Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun went down with injuries. In his last nine games, he has averaged 29.0 PPG and 7.1 APG (36.1 P+A) while going over the 31.5 line in seven of the nine (and four of the last five) games overall. He also went over 31.5 P+A in both games against the Timberwolves this season, dropping 23 points and 12 assists on Nov. 15 after scoring 43 points with 3 assists on October 27. – Snellings
Kram’s pick: Nuggets 120, Timberwolves 112
Pelton’s pick: Timberwolves 116, Nuggets 111
BPI prediction: DEN, 59.9%
Matchup must-reads: In search of the real Jokic … Jokic breaks Kareem’s record for career assists by center
Earlier games
Cavaliers (17-14) at Knicks (20-9)
Noon ET | ESPN/ABC | NYK -5.5 (237.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The league probably thought this would be a preview of the Eastern Conference finals when the schedule came out, but the Cavaliers have sputtered and are now without Evan Mobley due to a calf strain. The Knicks – especially since coach Mike Brown has gone back to last season’s starting five – represent everything the Cavs want to be: tough.
And the Knicks are more than finding their stride on offense, being second in efficiency. Reigning Player of the Week Jalen Brunson has been on a tear, averaging 32.3 points and 6.8 assists in his past eight games entering Tuesday night on 51/41/83 splits – a sharp contrast to the season Darius Garland is having, dealing with turf toe that was supposed to be surgically repaired during the offseason.
The Cavaliers can’t get off the mat until Garland finds himself; otherwise, it’ll be Donovan Mitchell standing alone against the Knicks. – Vincent Goodwill
Stat to know: A month ago, the Cavaliers and Knicks were next to each other in the standings, with 11-6 and 9-6 records, respectively. But Cleveland has lost as many games since Nov. 24 (eight) as New York has all season, as the NBA Cup champions are 12-3 during the Cavaliers’ recent extended swoon. – Zach Kram
Bold prediction: Mitchell, playing on Christmas Day for the first time since 2021, will activate the same mode that averages 29.6 PPG in each of the past two postseasons and will top 35 points for the ninth time this season. – Kevin Pelton
Injuries: Cavaliers | Knicks
Fantasy nugget: The Cavaliers look dramatically different this season. After ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating a year ago, they are 10th offensively and 16th defensively. They are also shooting just 34.6% from 3, down from 38.3%. Garland’s shooting struggles and Mobley’s injury absence have only added to the decline. Mitchell has been the exception – he is averaging career highs in points per game (30.7), 3-pointers made (4.1) and usage rate (32.3). – Eric Moody
Best bet: Brunson over 29.5 points (-111). Before sitting Tuesday’s game for ankle maintenance, Brunson was on a heater. He was averaging 33.1 PPG in his previous seven games, scoring 30 or more five times and 40 or more twice. He has a penchant for having a big game on the big stage, and the Christmas Day game in Madison Square Garden is as big as it gets in the regular season. He’s also facing a friendly Cavaliers perimeter defense that ranks 20th in points allowed to opposing point guards. – Andre’ Snellings
Kram’s pick: Knicks 123, Cavaliers 111
Pelton’s pick: Knicks 118, Cavaliers 116
BPI prediction: NYK, 61.1%
Matchup must-reads: Five wild-card players who could impact the wide-open East race … Knicks coach Mike Brown counts Bernie Bickerstaff as his biggest mentor
Cowboys (6-8-1) at Commanders (4-11)
1 p.m. ET | Netflix | DAL -7 (50.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: Out of the playoffs, the Cowboys’ motivation comes down to pride, a non-losing record and one more thing as they end the season against the Commanders and Giants. “I’m fueled by the fact that we get to play an NFC East opponent this week and then next week,” coach Brian Schottenheimer said. “We want to win. And to sustain some success and we have a chance to potentially go 5-1 in the division. I mean this is the NFC East.” Quarterback Dak Prescott is a combined 26-4 versus both teams in his career. – Todd Archer
What we’re hearing on the Commanders: There’s not much to salvage from this wreckage of a season, and the Commanders can’t even play spoiler. But they do need to stop the bleeding versus Dallas. The Cowboys have won seven of the past nine games in this rivalry, including the past two at Northwest Stadium. One thing that would help is limiting turnovers. Washington is minus-12 in turnover margin and was minus-2 in a 44-22 loss to Dallas in Week 6. And in their past nine games versus the Cowboys, the Commanders are minus-13 in turnover differential. – John Keim
Stat to know: The Commanders have allowed an average of 33.6 points per game in 14 matchups against Prescott as the starting QB. That’s the most points allowed by any team versus another with an active quarterback. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson will record at least seven receptions for the first time since Oct. 19, the last time these two teams played. Other than that specific bit of history, this is mostly a gut feeling. Ferguson was such a huge part of the offense early in the season but has been quieter since. – Seth Walder
What’s at stake: The Cowboys were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16 after the Eagles defeated the Commanders. Washington was already eliminated from the postseason race and is projected to have the No. 7 draft pick per FPI. See Playoff Machine. – ESPN Research
Injuries: Cowboys | Commanders
Fantasy nugget: Prescott, running back Javonte Williams and wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens all belong in lineups against a Commanders defense that has been eviscerated all season. Washington has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the sixth most to running backs and the ninth most to wide receivers. See Week 17 rankings. – Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 5-10 ATS, tied for the worst record in the NFL. They are 3-9 ATS as underdogs. Read more. – ESPN Research
Pamela Maldonado’s pick: Cowboys 44, Commanders 24
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 27, Commanders 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 30, Commanders 13
FPI prediction: DAL, 56.1% (by an average of 2.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: What did Cowboys get right in Schottenheimer’s first season?
By ESPN Staff | ESPN, via ESPN