By ESPN Staff | ESPN, 2025-12-26 09:15:00
圣诞节通常是家庭团聚和观赏篮球的时刻，但本个假日季，NFL正给NBA带来新的挑战。
继去年圣诞节上演NFL双赛日后，联盟今年又在晚间增添了一场对决，以此拉开第17周的序幕。这三场NFL对决均为分区内战。与此同时，NBA则将连续第18年上演其常规的五场圣诞大战（全部在ABC/ESPN播出）。
这八场圣诞大餐可能会让人目不暇接，因此我们为周四的比赛准备了一份全方位观赛指南。我们两大体育项目的记者和分析师们剖析了每一场对决，内容包括最大看点、关键数据、大胆预测、梦幻体育X因素以及投注锦囊（赔率来自DraftKings体育博彩）。此外，我们还利用ESPN的橄榄球与篮球实力指数（BPI）深入分析数据，并给出了比赛预测。对于NFL的比赛，我们还分析了其对仅剩两周就将开打的季后赛的影响。
让我们进入这八场对决。（比赛按开赛时间顺序排列，已开赛或已结束的比赛位于文末。）
跳转至NBA对决：
骑士-尼克斯 | 马刺-雷霆 | 独行侠-勇士
火箭-湖人 | 森林狼-掘金
跳转至NFL对决：
牛仔-指挥官 | 雄狮-维京人 | 野马-酋长
森林狼 (20-10) 客场挑战 掘金 (21-8)
东部时间晚10:30 | ABC/ESPN | 掘金 -4.5（总分盘 237.5）
最大看点： 森林狼逆转雷霆是否是一场宣言式的胜利？整个赛季以来，森林狼在面对强队时一直举步维艰，直到安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 完成了一次罕见的关键三连击——在最后一分钟命中反超三分、送出盖帽并完成抢断，其中两次防守均来自对卫冕MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的限制。
森林狼面对胜率五成及以上球队的战绩为3胜8负，但他们上赛季开局同样慢热，之后及时磨合，最终连续第二年闯入西部决赛。
森林狼在2024年的西部决赛之旅正是以牺牲尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 和掘金队为代价的，当时他们在丹佛上演惊天大逆转，赢下了第二轮的抢七大战。
高原氛围通常能帮助丹佛拥有联盟顶尖的主场优势之一，但掘金最近在波尔球馆的表现却出人意料地糟糕，过去七个主场输掉了五场。 – 蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)
需知数据： 回溯到2024年季后赛第二轮，森林狼曾对掘金取得过六连胜，包括那场季后赛的抢七大战以及去年四月的一场双加时惊悚对决。但掘金本赛季打破了这一连胜纪录，在十月和十一月都战胜了森林狼。 – 克拉姆 (Kram)
大胆预测： 爱德华兹将成为圣诞大战所有比赛中的得分王。掘金队中防守他的两名最佳选择：克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun) 和阿龙·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 均因伤缺阵。尽管掘金还有其他选择，布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown)、斯宾塞·琼斯 (Spencer Jones) 和佩顿·沃特森 (Peyton Watson) 都可能会轮流防守爱德华兹，但他们在单防限制他方面经验不足。 – 佩尔顿 (Pelton)
梦幻体育锦囊： 爱德华兹场均得到生涯新高的28.3分，这得益于他进攻手段的丰富。他在低位进攻的效率远胜以往，能持续惩罚身材矮小的防守者，将错位优势转化为轻松得分。这一新增的进攻维度使他跻身联盟顶级得分手行列。 – 穆迪 (Moody)
最佳投注： 贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 总得分+助攻数高于31.5 (-106)。在过去一个月，穆雷的表现有了显著提升，尤其是在首发球员阿龙·戈登和克里斯蒂安·布劳恩因伤倒下后。在过去九场比赛中，他场均贡献29.0分和7.1次助攻（得分+助攻合计36.1），九场中有七场（以及最近五场中的四场）超过了31.5的盘口。本赛季他对阵森林狼的两场比赛也都超过了31.5的得分+助攻数，11月15日送出23分12助攻，而10月27日则砍下43分3助攻。 – 斯内林斯 (Snellings)
克拉姆的预测： 掘金 120, 森林狼 112
佩尔顿的预测： 森林狼 116, 掘金 111
BPI 预测： 掘金胜，概率59.9%
必读对决分析： 寻找真实的约基奇…… | 约基奇打破卡里姆保持的中锋生涯助攻纪录
前序比赛
骑士 (17-14) 客场挑战 尼克斯 (20-9)
东部时间中午12:00 | ESPN/ABC | 尼克斯 -5.5（总分盘 237.5）
最大看点： 当赛程公布时，联盟可能认为这将是一场东部决赛的预演，但骑士队一直步履蹒跚，现在又因小腿拉伤失去了埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)。而尼克斯——尤其是在教练迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 重新启用上赛季的首发五虎之后——则代表了骑士渴望成为的一切：坚韧。
尼克斯在进攻端也渐入佳境，效率高居联盟第二。卫冕周最佳球员杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 状态火热，在周二晚的比赛前，他过去八场比赛场均贡献32.3分和6.8次助攻，三项命中率高达51/41/83——这与达柳斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 本赛季的表现形成鲜明对比，后者正与本该在休赛期接受手术的草地脚趾伤病作斗争。
在加兰找回状态之前，骑士队无法摆脱困境；否则，就将是多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 独木难支对抗尼克斯。 – 文森特·古德维尔 (Vincent Goodwill)
需知数据： 一个月前，骑士和尼克斯在战绩榜上并驾齐驱，分别为11胜6负和9胜6负。但自11月24日以来，克利夫兰的输球场次（八场）已经和纽约整个赛季的输球场次一样多。在这段骑士队持续低迷的时期，NBA杯冠军尼克斯队取得了12胜3负的战绩。 – 扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram)
大胆预测： 自2021年以来首次在圣诞大战中出场的米切尔，将开启他在过去两个赛季季后赛场均砍下29.6分的那种模式，并将在本赛季第九次得分超过35分。 – 凯文·佩尔顿 (Kevin Pelton)
梦幻体育锦囊： 骑士本赛季看起来截然不同。一年前，他们的攻防效率都排在联盟前十，而现在进攻排第10，防守则排在第16。他们的三分命中率也只有34.6%，低于去年的38.3%。加兰的投篮挣扎和莫布里的因伤缺阵更是加剧了球队的下滑。米切尔是个例外——他场均得分（30.7分）、三分命中数（4.1个）和使用率（32.3）均创下生涯新高。 – 埃里克·穆迪 (Eric Moody)
最佳投注： 布伦森得分高于29.5分 (-111)。在周二因脚踝保养休战前，布伦森手感滚烫。他在之前的七场比赛中场均得到33.1分，其中五次得分超过30，两次得分超过40。他有在大场面打出优异表现的倾向，而在麦迪逊广场花园的圣诞大战是常规赛中最大的舞台。他面对的骑士队外线防守也很友好，在限制对方控球后卫得分方面排名联盟第20位。 – 安德烈·斯内林斯 (Andre’ Snellings)
克拉姆的预测： 尼克斯 123, 骑士 111
佩尔顿的预测： 尼克斯 118, 骑士 116
BPI 预测： 尼克斯胜，概率61.1%
必读对决分析： 五位可能影响东部开放竞争格局的外卡球员…… | 尼克斯教练迈克·布朗视伯尼·比克斯塔夫为最重要的导师
牛仔 (6-8-1) 客场挑战 指挥官 (4-11)
东部时间下午1:00 | Netflix | 牛仔 -7（总分盘 50.5）
牛仔队动态： 在无缘季后赛后，牛仔队的动力来自于荣誉、避免负战绩收官，以及在本赛季最后对阵指挥官和巨人队时的另一件事。教练布莱恩·朔滕海默 (Brian Schottenheimer) 说：“本周和下周我们都将对阵国联东区的对手，这让我充满动力。我们想要赢球，保持一些成功的势头，并且我们有机会在分区内取得5胜1负的战绩。要知道，这可是国联东区。”四分卫达克·普雷斯科特 (Dak Prescott) 职业生涯对阵这两支球队的合计战绩为26胜4负。 – 托德·阿彻 (Todd Archer)
指挥官队动态： 在这个支离破碎的赛季里，已经没有太多可以挽回的了，指挥官队甚至无法扮演搅局者。但他们确实需要止住对达拉斯的颓势。在这对宿敌的近九次交锋中，牛仔队赢了七次，包括最近在西北体育场的两次。减少失误会有所帮助。华盛顿的失误差为-12，在第6周以22-44输给达拉斯的比赛中，他们的失误差为-2。在过去九场对阵牛仔队的比赛中，指挥官队的失误差为-13。 – 约翰·凯姆 (John Keim)
需知数据： 在普雷斯科特担任首发四分卫的14场对决中，指挥官队场均失分高达33.6分。这是所有球队在面对另一位现役四分卫时场均失分最多的纪录。 – ESPN Research
大胆预测： 牛仔队近端锋杰克·弗格森 (Jake Ferguson) 将自10月19日（两队上次交手）以来首次完成至少七次接球。除了这一特定的历史数据外，这主要是一种直觉。弗格森在赛季初是进攻端的重要一环，但此后表现较为沉寂。 – 塞思·沃尔德 (Seth Walder)
季后赛前景： 牛仔队在第16周老鹰队击败指挥官队后，已被淘汰出季后赛争夺。华盛顿早已无缘季后赛，根据FPI预测将获得第7顺位选秀权。参见季后赛模拟器。 – ESPN Research
梦幻体育锦囊： 普雷斯科特、跑卫贾旺特·威廉姆斯 (Javonte Williams) 以及外接手CeeDee·兰姆 (CeeDee Lamb) 和乔治·皮肯斯 (George Pickens) 都应该被放入首发阵容，因为他们面对的是整个赛季都被打穿的指挥官队防守。华盛顿队在让对方四分卫、跑卫和外接手拿下的梦幻体育积分上，分别排在联盟第四、第六和第九多。参见第17周排名。 – 穆迪
投注锦囊： 指挥官队的让分盘战绩为5胜10负，与联盟最差纪录持平。作为受让方，他们的让分盘战绩为3胜9负。阅读更多。 – ESPN Research
帕梅拉·马尔多纳多 (Pamela Maldonado) 的预测： 牛仔 44, 指挥官 24
穆迪的预测： 牛仔 27, 指挥官 20
沃尔德的预测： 牛仔 30, 指挥官 13
FPI 预测： 牛仔胜，概率56.1%（平均净胜2.7分）
必读对决分析： 朔滕海默执教牛仔的第一个赛季，做对了什么？
马刺 (22-7) 客场挑战 雷霆 (26-4)
东部时间下午2:30 | ABC/ESPN | 雷霆 -10.5（总分盘 233.5）
最大看点： 在马刺队于NBA杯半决赛终结雷霆的16连胜后，有一点很清楚：我们正见证着这两支球队之间未来数年激烈对决的开端。
维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在因左小腿拉伤缺阵12场后复出，并已连续五场替补出场。考虑到他回归后的四场比赛中出场时间均未超过22分钟，这一趋势很可能继续。
除了正在萌芽的球队对抗，也请密切关注文班亚马和切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 之间的一对一较量。当被问及马刺与雷霆的竞争时，文班亚马保持着谦逊，但这两支年轻、充满渴望的球队之间似乎正在酝酿着大事，而文班亚马和霍姆格伦正站在这场风暴的中心。 – 迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)
需知数据： 如前所述，当文班亚马替补出场并带领马刺在NBA杯爆冷获胜时，那只是他职业生涯第五次与霍姆格伦交手，也是自2024年10月以来的首次。据Stathead.com统计，在这几次交锋中，文班亚马场均贡献24.4分、12.3个篮板和3.3次盖帽，而霍姆格伦则为18.7分、7.8个篮板和1.5次盖帽。 – 佩尔顿
大胆预测： 文班亚马将得到40分。本赛季还没有任何对手在对阵雷霆的比赛中得分超过40分——常规时间内最高仅为32分——但文班亚马热爱大场面。上赛季，他在对阵尼克斯的圣诞大战首秀中砍下了42分和18个篮板。 – 克拉姆
梦幻体育锦囊： 吉尔杰斯-亚历山大整个赛季都在带领梦幻体育球队高歌猛进。他场均贡献53.1梦幻积分，仅次于文班亚马、卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和约基奇。本赛季他已有23场比赛得分超过30分，这一速度自（ABA-NBA）合并以来，只有迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan)（1986-87赛季）能够匹敌。 – 穆迪
最佳投注： 马刺 +9.5 胜 雷霆 (-115)。马刺已经证明他们不惧怕雷霆。雷霆本赛季对阵马刺0胜2负……而对阵其他所有球队的战绩是26胜2负。在NBA杯半决赛击败雷霆后，马刺在周二又以20分的优势再次取胜。雷霆对文班亚马毫无办法；在两人交手的44分钟里，他们净负34分。 – 斯内林斯
克拉姆的预测： 雷霆 110, 马刺 104
佩尔顿的预测： 雷霆 120, 马刺 108
BPI 预测： 雷霆胜，概率74.1%
必读对决分析： 可能塑造西部格局的马刺-雷霆新锐对决…… | 击败雷霆的五步指南
雄狮 (8-7) 客场挑战 维京人 (7-8)
东部时间下午4:30 | Netflix | 雄狮 -6（总分盘 44.5）
雄狮队动态： 教练丹·坎贝尔 (Dan Campbell) 本周给球队传达的信息很简单：“向前看。”尽管遭遇了自2022年以来的首次连败，坎贝尔仍在推动球队做好“情绪、心理和身体上”的准备，以强势收官2025赛季。“我渴望赢下一场假日比赛，”冲传手艾丹·哈钦森 (Aidan Hutchinson) 说，“感恩节那场比赛至今还让我火大。所以，我想，那就把圣诞节的胜利给我吧。心态就是这样。” – 埃里克·伍德亚德 (Eric Woodyard)
维京人队动态： 维京人将努力确保外接手贾斯汀·杰斐逊 (Justin Jefferson) 本赛季的接球码数超过1000码，这句话听起来可能很荒谬，但却是事实。杰斐逊唯一一个到第17周还未远超1000码的赛季是2023年，当时他因腿筋撕裂缺席了七场比赛。但维京人队在四分卫位置上的挣扎，以及杰斐逊本人出人意料的失常，让他在15场比赛后仅有917码。这使他距离目标还差83码，即每场平均41.5码。这完全可以实现，但值得注意的是，在过去七场比赛中，杰斐逊有四场比赛的码数低于41码。 – 凯文·塞弗特 (Kevin Seifert)
需知数据： 在上周战胜巨人队的比赛中，明尼苏达的接球手在上半场出现了三次脱手，这是他们自2017年第14周以来上半场脱手最多的一次。维京人队以26次脱手与酋长队和野马队并列联盟第二。 – ESPN Research
大胆预测： 雄狮队角卫D.J.·里德 (D.J. Reed) 将被杰斐逊完成一次达阵。根据NFL Next Gen Stats的数据，自里德在第12周从腿筋伤势中回归以来，他每次盯防档数失码高达1.9码，表现非常糟糕。 – 沃尔德
季后赛前景： 维京人队已被淘汰出季后赛争夺，而雄狮队也可能在周四输球或周六包装工队赢球后加入他们的行列。根据FPI，底特律有7%的机会进入季后赛。参见季后赛模拟器。 – ESPN Research
梦幻体育锦囊： 雄狮队跑卫贾米尔·吉布斯 (Jahmyr Gibbs) 在过去两场比赛中总冲球码数仅为40码，但他作为接球手依然有所贡献，在这期间完成了14次接球，获得86接球码和一次达阵。吉布斯在第9周对阵明尼苏达时表现不佳，仅得到5.8梦幻积分。参见第17周排名。 – 穆迪
投注锦囊： 维京人队在过去三场比赛中让分盘全胜（3-0 ATS）。雄狮队在过去六场比赛中让分盘战绩为1胜5负。 阅读更多。 – ESPN Research
马尔多纳多的预测： 雄狮 29, 维京人 18
穆迪的预测： 雄狮 27, 维京人 20
沃尔德的预测： 雄狮 31, 维京人 24
FPI 预测： 雄狮胜，概率68.4%（平均净胜7.3分）
必读对决分析： 维京人队的麦卡锡因手部发际线骨折缺阵…… | NFL第16周：雄狮、海盗、乌鸦、小马队出了什么问题？
独行侠 (12-19) 客场挑战 勇士 (15-15)
东部时间下午5:00 | ABC/ESPN | 勇士 -7.5（总分盘 226.5）
最大看点： 克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson) 的重逢将备受关注。在为勇士效力13年并参加了九场圣诞大战后，这是他第三次回到旧金山面对旧主。汤普森为独行侠近期的强势复苏做出了贡献，本月他替补出场场均21分钟得到11.8分。
不过，库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 才是独行侠的焦点人物。这位状元新秀将在他状态正佳之时，迎来自己的圣诞大战首秀，在传奇云集的球场上获得展示自己的舞台。在过去一个月里，弗拉格曾分别砍下33分、35分和42分。
对勇士队而言，关键在于紧迫感。他们本赛季怀揣着处于争冠行列边缘的雄心，但却在平庸中挣扎。这场比赛是他们有利赛程的一部分——他们需要在为时已晚之前积累胜场，并在排名上有所提升。 – 安东尼·斯莱特 (Anthony Slater)
需知数据： 斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 保持着NBA历史上为单一球队命中三分球最多的纪录，雷吉·米勒 (Reggie Miller) 排名第二。但排名第三的正是汤普森，他在作为勇士球员的11个赛季里命中了2481记三分。上赛季，他作为客队球员在追逐中心的三场比赛中，30次出手命中16记三分。 – 克拉姆
大胆预测： 勇士队将至少命中18记三分球。在他们获得两天休息时间的五场比赛中，有四场做到了这一点，并取得了4胜1负的战绩。总的来说，当勇士队至少投进18记三分时，他们的战绩为7胜2负。 – 佩尔顿
梦幻体育锦囊： 安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 在十二月的表现极为出色，场均贡献49.1梦幻积分。周一晚上对阵鹈鹕，他上演了一场大师级表演，砍下35分和17个篮板。这是他职业生涯第45次单场至少得到35分和15个篮板，自他2012-13赛季进入联盟以来高居榜首。扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 和尼古拉·约基奇并列第二，各有31场这样的比赛。 – 穆迪
最佳投注： 弗拉格得分高于20.5分 (-107)。赛季初，独行侠尝试让弗拉格打控球后卫，导致他开局慢热，但在过去一个月回到他熟悉的小前锋位置后，他迎来了爆发。他近来手感火热，过去六场比赛场均得到26.7分，投篮命中率52.3%。这六场比赛中，他有五场得分至少22分，其中两场得分超过33分。 – 斯内林斯
克拉姆的预测： 独行侠 113, 勇士 108
佩尔顿的预测： 勇士 118, 独行侠 112
BPI 预测： 勇士胜，概率72%
必读对决分析： 汤普森离开勇士的遗憾与反思…… | 两位独行侠球员入选我们的最具价值阵容…… | 格林与科尔争吵后离开勇士替补席
火箭 (17-10) 客场挑战 湖人 (19-9)
东部时间晚8:00 | ABC/ESPN | 火箭 -4.5（总分盘 228.5）
最大看点： 进入圣诞周前，火箭队在过去六场比赛中输掉四场，排名有所下滑，而湖人队目前也有自己的麻烦：上周末输给快船的比赛中，洛杉矶队缺少了四名首发球员。所以，这两队之间的首次交锋可能双方都无法以最佳状态出战。
然而，考虑到休斯顿预计将成为西部季后赛格局中的一个重要因素，无论谁能出场，这对湖人来说都将是一次重要的考验。
在过去两场对阵西部顶级球队的高压比赛中，湖人队都开局慢热。11月12日，卫冕冠军雷霆以121-92大胜他们。12月10日，在NBA杯四分之一决赛主场迎战马刺，争夺前往拉斯维加斯和每人50万美元奖金的机会时，尽管文班亚马缺阵，马刺队仍在客场以132-119掌控了比赛。 – 戴夫·麦克梅纳明 (Dave McMenamin)
需知数据： 勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的连续得分上双纪录在本月早些时候终结，但他历史性的19次圣诞大战出场全部得分至少16分的纪录仍在延续。在圣诞大战出场次数第二多且场场得分至少16的球员是：凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，他与奥斯卡·罗伯特森 (Oscar Robertson) 各以12场并列。詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)（10场）是唯一另一位拥有两位数场次纪录的球员，但他本赛季将没有机会延续这一纪录。 – 佩尔顿
大胆预测： 詹姆斯和杜兰特都将得分超过30分。这两位超级巨星在他们名人堂级别的职业生涯中，已有15次在对决中双双砍下30+，而由于卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的受伤，詹姆斯需要承担更大的进攻重任，他们将在圣诞节第16次上演此景。 – 克拉姆
梦幻体育锦囊： 杜兰特继续对抗时间，凭借精英级的投篮能力和精炼、纯熟的技术，将自己的巅峰状态延续到了三十多岁，这持续转化为梦幻体育的产出。本月早些时候，他成为继詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹之后，第三快达到30000分、5000篮板和5000助攻的球员。杜兰特在对阵詹姆斯领衔的球队时也提升了表现，自2018-19赛季以来，他面对詹姆斯场均得到28.0分、6.9个篮板和4.7次助攻。 – 穆迪
最佳投注： 詹姆斯得分高于19.5分 (-122)。在经历长期伤病休养后，詹姆斯逐渐回归阵容，并在十二月份悄然找到了自己的得分节奏。在过去六场比赛中，他有五场得分至少23分，期间场均得到26.8分。无论场上队友是谁，他作为得分手都表现得非常稳定。而且这是一场圣诞大战；他的职业生涯就是以在聚光灯下表现出色而著称的。 – 斯内林斯
克拉姆的预测： 火箭 125, 湖人 115
佩尔顿的预测： 湖人 118, 火箭 114
BPI 预测： 火箭胜，概率61.5%
必读对决分析： 勒布朗 vs. 时间老人：数据解读詹姆斯的变化…… | 杜兰特追逐第三冠的关键在于两位年轻球星…… | 雷迪克在惨败后直言不讳地批评湖人的努力程度和防守
野马 (12-3) 客场挑战 酋长 (6-9)
东部时间晚8:15 | Prime Video | 野马 -13.5（总分盘 36.5）
野马队动态： 线卫亚历克斯·辛格尔顿 (Alex Singleton) 可能最简洁地总结了野马队的任务清单：“我们还有两场比赛要打，去成为美联的头号种子。”他们必须赢下这两场比赛才能确保头号种子席位以及随之而来的主场季后赛优势。他们强大的防守也需要迅速反弹。他们从未面对过酋长队四分卫克里斯·奥拉多昆 (Chris Oladokun)，但十二月在箭头球场的比赛长期以来一直是野马队的难题。自1990年以来，丹佛在此类比赛中的战绩为3胜12负。 – 杰夫·莱格沃尔德 (Jeff Legwold)
酋长队动态： 上周从堪萨斯城训练阵容签约的酋长队第三阵容四分卫奥拉多昆，预计将对阵野马队迎来他的首次NFL首发。他希望充分利用这一时刻。“我们有很多年轻球员在场上，但这是一次宝贵的经历，”28岁的奥拉多昆说，“这对我们来说将非常有价值。这是圣诞节。我有可能在圣诞节完成我的首次首发，这非常特别。我的家人也会来到镇上。我对此充满期待。” – 内特·泰勒 (Nate Taylor)
需知数据： 酋长队已有六次在上半场未能得分，包括上周惨败给泰坦队的比赛。这是他们自2012年（11场）以来单赛季上半场被零封次数最多的一次。 – ESPN Research
大胆预测： 野马队四分卫博·尼克斯 (Bo Nix) 将在上周输给美洲虎队后反弹，并以高于75的QBR完成比赛。尼克斯的QBR为59，但在面对突袭时，这个数字跃升至82。堪萨斯城有35%的时间采用突袭战术，在NFL中排名第三。 – 沃尔德
季后赛前景： 野马队若取胜且闪电队在周六输球，即可锁定美联西区冠军。如果丹佛赢球，并且闪电队、爱国者队、比尔队和美洲虎队在第17周都输球，他们也有机会获得头号种子。参见季后赛模拟器。 – ESPN Research
梦幻体育锦囊： 跑卫RJ·哈维 (RJ Harvey) 和野马队的冲球进攻应该会在对阵堪萨斯城防守时大放异彩，后者刚刚让泰坦队跑卫泰贾·斯皮尔斯 (Tyjae Spears) 和托尼·波拉德 (Tony Pollard) 合计拿下了31.7梦幻积分。哈维得益于在冲球掩护成功率排名第五的野马队进攻锋线后跑球。参见第17周排名。 – 穆迪
投注锦囊： 36.5分是自2008年以来酋长队主场比赛中最低的总分盘，也与他们过去十年中任何比赛的最低总分盘持平。阅读更多。 – ESPN Research
马尔多纳多的预测： 野马 24, 酋长 10
穆迪的预测： 野马 23, 酋长 13
沃尔德的预测： 野马 24, 酋长 17
FPI 预测： 野马胜，概率55.6%（平均净胜2.5分）
必读对决分析： 一次随机药检如何可能拯救了亚历克斯·辛格尔顿的生命…… | 酋长队同意在堪萨斯州的穹顶球场比赛…… | 酋长队四分卫明休避免前十字韧带撕裂
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：2025 Christmas NFL, NBA game schedule, picks, odds, previews
2025 Christmas NFL, NBA game schedule, picks, odds, previews
Christmas Day is usually a time for family and basketball, but the NFL is presenting a new challenge for the NBA this holiday season.
After a doubleheader of NFL games on Christmas last year, the league added one more matchup at night to kick off Week 17. All three NFL matchups are between divisional opponents. Meanwhile, the NBA is set to feature its regular slate of five games (all on ABC/ESPN) for the 18th straight year.
This eight-game Christmas spread can be a lot to take in, so we put together an all-encompassing guide for Thursday. Our reporters and analysts from both sports broke down every matchup, including the biggest storylines, key stats, bold predictions, fantasy X factors and betting nuggets (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook). Plus, we used ESPN’s Football and Basketball Power Index to go inside the numbers with game projections. For the NFL games, we also included ramifications for the playoffs, which begin in just two weeks.
Let’s get to all eight contests. (Games are listed in chronological order by start time, with games already underway or completed at the bottom.)
Jump to an NBA matchup:
CLE-NYK | SA-OKC | DAL-GS
HOU-LAL | MIN-DEN
Jump to an NFL matchup:
DAL-WSH | DET-MIN | DEN-KC
Timberwolves (20-10) at Nuggets (21-8)
10:30 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | DEN -4.5 (237.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: Was the Timberwolves’ comeback over the Thunder a statement win? Minnesota had struggled all season against quality competition until Anthony Edwards pulled off a rare clutch trifecta – hitting a go-ahead 3, blocking a shot and making a steal in the final minute, with the two defensive plays coming against reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Wolves are 3-8 against teams that are .500 or better, but they also got off to a sluggish start last season before gelling in time to make their second straight run to the Western Conference finals.
Minnesota’s 2024 conference finals appearance came at the expense of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, as the Wolves pulled off a massive comeback in Denver to win Game 7 of the second round.
The mile-high atmosphere typically helps Denver have one of the league’s best home-court advantages, but the Nuggets have been surprisingly bad at Ball Arena recently, losing five of their past seven home games. – Tim MacMahon
Stat to know: Dating back to the second round of the 2024 postseason, the Timberwolves had won six consecutive games against Denver, including Game 7 of that playoff series and a double-overtime thriller last April. But the Nuggets broke that streak this season, with wins against Minnesota in October and November. – Kram
Bold prediction: Edwards will lead all players across all games in scoring on Christmas Day. Denver is without its two best defensive options against him: Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon, both sidelined by injury. And though the Nuggets have other choices, with Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson all likely to spend time defending Edwards, they don’t have as much experience containing him one-on-one. – Pelton
Injuries: Timberwolves | Nuggets
Fantasy nugget: Edwards is averaging a career-high 28.3 PPG, fueled by an expansion in his offensive game. He has become far more effective operating out of the post, consistently punishing smaller defenders and turning mismatches into easy offense. That added dimension has elevated him into the league’s top tier of scorers. – Moody
Best bet: Jamal Murray over 31.5 total points + assists (-106). Murray has stepped up his production in a major way in the past month, particularly after starters Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun went down with injuries. In his last nine games, he has averaged 29.0 PPG and 7.1 APG (36.1 P+A) while going over the 31.5 line in seven of the nine (and four of the last five) games overall. He also went over 31.5 P+A in both games against the Timberwolves this season, dropping 23 points and 12 assists on Nov. 15 after scoring 43 points with 3 assists on October 27. – Snellings
Kram’s pick: Nuggets 120, Timberwolves 112
Pelton’s pick: Timberwolves 116, Nuggets 111
BPI prediction: DEN, 59.9%
Matchup must-reads: In search of the real Jokic … Jokic breaks Kareem’s record for career assists by center
Earlier games
Cavaliers (17-14) at Knicks (20-9)
Noon ET | ESPN/ABC | NYK -5.5 (237.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The league probably thought this would be a preview of the Eastern Conference finals when the schedule came out, but the Cavaliers have sputtered and are now without Evan Mobley due to a calf strain. The Knicks – especially since coach Mike Brown has gone back to last season’s starting five – represent everything the Cavs want to be: tough.
And the Knicks are more than finding their stride on offense, being second in efficiency. Reigning Player of the Week Jalen Brunson has been on a tear, averaging 32.3 points and 6.8 assists in his past eight games entering Tuesday night on 51/41/83 splits – a sharp contrast to the season Darius Garland is having, dealing with turf toe that was supposed to be surgically repaired during the offseason.
The Cavaliers can’t get off the mat until Garland finds himself; otherwise, it’ll be Donovan Mitchell standing alone against the Knicks. – Vincent Goodwill
Stat to know: A month ago, the Cavaliers and Knicks were next to each other in the standings, with 11-6 and 9-6 records, respectively. But Cleveland has lost as many games since Nov. 24 (eight) as New York has all season, as the NBA Cup champions are 12-3 during the Cavaliers’ recent extended swoon. – Zach Kram
Bold prediction: Mitchell, playing on Christmas Day for the first time since 2021, will activate the same mode that averages 29.6 PPG in each of the past two postseasons and will top 35 points for the ninth time this season. – Kevin Pelton
Injuries: Cavaliers | Knicks
Fantasy nugget: The Cavaliers look dramatically different this season. After ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating a year ago, they are 10th offensively and 16th defensively. They are also shooting just 34.6% from 3, down from 38.3%. Garland’s shooting struggles and Mobley’s injury absence have only added to the decline. Mitchell has been the exception – he is averaging career highs in points per game (30.7), 3-pointers made (4.1) and usage rate (32.3). – Eric Moody
Best bet: Brunson over 29.5 points (-111). Before sitting Tuesday’s game for ankle maintenance, Brunson was on a heater. He was averaging 33.1 PPG in his previous seven games, scoring 30 or more five times and 40 or more twice. He has a penchant for having a big game on the big stage, and the Christmas Day game in Madison Square Garden is as big as it gets in the regular season. He’s also facing a friendly Cavaliers perimeter defense that ranks 20th in points allowed to opposing point guards. – Andre’ Snellings
Kram’s pick: Knicks 123, Cavaliers 111
Pelton’s pick: Knicks 118, Cavaliers 116
BPI prediction: NYK, 61.1%
Matchup must-reads: Five wild-card players who could impact the wide-open East race … Knicks coach Mike Brown counts Bernie Bickerstaff as his biggest mentor
Cowboys (6-8-1) at Commanders (4-11)
1 p.m. ET | Netflix | DAL -7 (50.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: Out of the playoffs, the Cowboys’ motivation comes down to pride, a non-losing record and one more thing as they end the season against the Commanders and Giants. “I’m fueled by the fact that we get to play an NFC East opponent this week and then next week,” coach Brian Schottenheimer said. “We want to win. And to sustain some success and we have a chance to potentially go 5-1 in the division. I mean this is the NFC East.” Quarterback Dak Prescott is a combined 26-4 versus both teams in his career. – Todd Archer
What we’re hearing on the Commanders: There’s not much to salvage from this wreckage of a season, and the Commanders can’t even play spoiler. But they do need to stop the bleeding versus Dallas. The Cowboys have won seven of the past nine games in this rivalry, including the past two at Northwest Stadium. One thing that would help is limiting turnovers. Washington is minus-12 in turnover margin and was minus-2 in a 44-22 loss to Dallas in Week 6. And in their past nine games versus the Cowboys, the Commanders are minus-13 in turnover differential. – John Keim
Stat to know: The Commanders have allowed an average of 33.6 points per game in 14 matchups against Prescott as the starting QB. That’s the most points allowed by any team versus another with an active quarterback. – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson will record at least seven receptions for the first time since Oct. 19, the last time these two teams played. Other than that specific bit of history, this is mostly a gut feeling. Ferguson was such a huge part of the offense early in the season but has been quieter since. – Seth Walder
What’s at stake: The Cowboys were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16 after the Eagles defeated the Commanders. Washington was already eliminated from the postseason race and is projected to have the No. 7 draft pick per FPI. See Playoff Machine. – ESPN Research
Injuries: Cowboys | Commanders
Fantasy nugget: Prescott, running back Javonte Williams and wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens all belong in lineups against a Commanders defense that has been eviscerated all season. Washington has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the sixth most to running backs and the ninth most to wide receivers. See Week 17 rankings. – Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 5-10 ATS, tied for the worst record in the NFL. They are 3-9 ATS as underdogs. Read more. – ESPN Research
Pamela Maldonado’s pick: Cowboys 44, Commanders 24
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 27, Commanders 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 30, Commanders 13
FPI prediction: DAL, 56.1% (by an average of 2.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: What did Cowboys get right in Schottenheimer’s first season?
Spurs (22-7) at Thunder (26-4)
2:30 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | OKC -10.5 (233.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: After the Spurs snapped the Thunder’s 16-game winning streak in the NBA Cup semifinals, one thing is clear: We’re at the beginning of what should be a heated rivalry for years to come between these teams.
Victor Wembanyama has come off the bench in five consecutive games since his return from a 12-game absence due to a left calf strain. There’s a good chance the trend continues considering he hasn’t played more than 22 minutes in the four games he has been back.
In addition to the budding team rivalry, pay close attention to the individual one-on-one battle between Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren. Wembanyama maintains a sense of humility when asked about the rivalry between the Spurs and the Thunder, but it appears something big is brewing between these young, hungry teams, with Wembanyama and Holmgren standing at the forefront. – Michael C. Wright
Stat to know: As noted, when Wembanyama came off the bench to key the Spurs’ upset win in the NBA Cup, it was just his fifth career matchup against Holmgren and the first since October 2024. Wembanyama has averaged 24.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG and 3.3 BPG to Holmgren’s 18.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 1.5 BPG, per Stathead.com. – Pelton
Bold prediction: Wembanyama will score 40 points. No opposing player has reached 40-plus points in a game against the Thunder yet this season – the most in regulation is just 32 – but Wembanyama loves a big stage. He had 42 points and 18 rebounds in his Christmas debut last season against the Knicks. – Kram
Injuries: Spurs | Thunder
Fantasy nugget: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has carried fantasy teams all season. He is averaging 53.1 fantasy points per game, trailing Wembanyama, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. He already has 23 games with 30-plus points this season, a pace matched only by Michael Jordan (1986-87) since the merger. – Moody
Best bet: Spurs +9.5 over Thunder (-115). The Spurs have proven they are not intimidated by the Thunder. The Thunder are 0-2 against the Spurs this season … and 26-2 against every other team. After defeating the Thunder in the semifinal of the NBA Cup, the Spurs backed that up with a 20-point win on Tuesday. The Thunder have no answer for Wembanyama; they have been outscored by 34 points in the 44 minutes he has played in their two matchups. – Snellings
Kram’s pick: Thunder 110, Spurs 104
Pelton’s pick: Thunder 120, Spurs 108
BPI prediction: OKC, 74.1%
Matchup must-reads: The budding Spurs-Thunder rivalry that could shape the West … A five-step guide on how to beat the Thunder
Lions (8-7) at Vikings (7-8)
4:30 p.m. ET | Netflix | DET -6 (44.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Lions: Coach Dan Campbell’s message to the team this week was simple: “Move forward.” Despite suffering back-to-back losses for the first time since 2022, Campbell is pushing the team to be ready “emotionally, psychologically, physically” to finish the 2025 season strong. “I’d love to win one of these holiday games,” said edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. “The Thanksgiving game still pisses me off. So, I’m like, just give me Christmas. That’s kind of the mentality.” – Eric Woodyard
What we’re hearing on the Vikings: The Vikings will make an effort to ensure that wide receiver Justin Jefferson eclipses 1,000 receiving yards for the season, a sentence that might seem preposterous but is in fact very real. The only other season that Jefferson hasn’t been well over 1,000 yards by Week 17 was 2023, when he missed seven games because of a torn hamstring. But the Vikings’ struggles at quarterback, and Jefferson’s own surprising lapses, have left him at 917 yards in 15 games. That leaves him 83 yards short, or an average of 41.5 yards per game. It’s very doable, but it’s worth noting that Jefferson has had fewer than 41 yards in four of his past seven games. – Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Minnesota receivers dropped three passes in the first half of last week’s win over the Giants, which was their most in a first half since Week 14 of 2017. The Vikings are tied with the Chiefs and Broncos for the second-most drops (26). – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Lions cornerback D.J. Reed will allow a touchdown to Jefferson. Since Reed returned from his hamstring injury in Week 12, he has allowed a very rough 1.9 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats. – Walder
What’s at stake: The Vikings have already been eliminated from playoff contention, and the Lions could join them with a loss Thursday or a Packers win Saturday. Detroit has a 7% chance to make the playoffs, per FPI. See Playoff Machine. – ESPN Research
Injuries: Lions | Vikings
Fantasy nugget: Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs has been held to just 40 total rushing yards over the past two games, but he has still produced as a receiver with 14 catches, 86 receiving yards and a touchdown over that span. Gibbs struggled against Minnesota in Week 9, finishing with just 5.8 fantasy points. See Week 17 rankings. – Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 3-0 ATS in their past three games. The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their past six games. Read more. – ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Lions 29, Vikings 18
Moody’s pick: Lions 27, Vikings 20
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Vikings 24
FPI prediction: DET, 68.4% (by an average of 7.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ McCarthy out with hairline fracture in hand … NFL Week 16: What went wrong for Lions, Bucs, Ravens, Colts?
Mavericks (12-19) at Warriors (15-15)
5 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | GS -7.5 (226.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The Klay Thompson reunion will get plenty of attention. After 13 years and nine Christmas games with the Warriors, he is making his third return trip to San Francisco to face his former team. Thompson has been a contributor to a recent Mavericks surge, averaging 11.8 points in 21 minutes off the bench this month.
Cooper Flagg has been the headliner for the Mavericks, though. The rookie No. 1 pick will get a showcase for his debut Christmas game on a floor full of legends just as he’s hitting his stride. Flagg has scoring nights of 33, 35 and 42 points over the past month.
On the Warriors’ side, it’s about urgency. They have fringe contention aspirations this season but are toiling in mediocrity. This matchup is part of a favorable portion of the schedule – they need to accumulate wins and make a move in the standings before it’s too late. – Anthony Slater
Stat to know: Stephen Curry has the most 3-pointers for a single team in NBA history, and Reggie Miller ranks second. But it’s Thompson who ranks third, with his 2,481 3s in 11 seasons as a Warrior. He made 16 3s on 30 attempts in three games as a visitor at the Chase Center last season. – Kram
Bold prediction: The Warriors will make at least 18 3-pointers. They’ve done so four times in the five games they’ve played with two days of rest, going 4-1 in those games. Overall, the Warriors are 7-2 when they knock down at least 18 triples in a game. – Pelton
Injuries: Mavericks | Warriors
Fantasy nugget: Anthony Davis has been superb in December, averaging 49.1 fantasy points per game. He put on a master class against the Pelicans on Monday night with 35 points and 17 rebounds. It was his 45th career game with at least 35 points and 15 rebounds, the most in the league since he entered in 2012-13. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic are tied for second with 31 such games. – Moody
Best bet: Flagg over 20.5 points (-107). Flagg had a slow start to the season as the Mavericks tried him at point guard, but he has broken out in the past month since moving back to his natural small forward slot. He has been scorching of late, averaging 26.7 PPG on 52.3 FG% in his last six games. He has scored at least 22 points in five of those six, and 33 or more in two of the six. – Snellings
Kram’s pick: Mavericks 113, Warriors 108
Pelton’s pick: Warriors 118, Mavericks 112
BPI prediction: GS, 72%
Matchup must-reads: The regrets and reflections in Thompson’s Warriors exit … Two Mavs make our All-Value Team … Green leaves Warriors’ bench after argument with Kerr
Rockets (17-10) at Lakers (19-9)
8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN | HOU -4.5 (228.5 O/U)
Biggest storylines to watch: The Rockets have slipped in the standings with four losses in their past six games coming into Christmas week, and the Lakers have their own problems at the moment: Los Angeles was down four starters in its loss to the Clippers over the weekend. So, the first matchup between these two teams might not feature either at their best.
With Houston figuring to be a factor in the West playoff picture, however, it will be an important test for the Lakers, no matter who is available to play.
In the Lakers’ past two high-leverage games against the West’s best, they came out flat. The defending champion Thunder trounced them 121-92 on Nov. 12. And hosting the Spurs in the NBA Cup quarterfinals Dec. 10 with a trip to Las Vegas and a shot at $500,000 per player on the line, the Spurs controlled the action in a 132-119 road win, despite Wembanyama being out. – Dave McMenamin
Stat to know: LeBron James’ double-figure scoring streak ended earlier this month, but his streak of scoring at least 16 points in all 19 of his historic Christmas Day appearances lives on. The next-most games played on Christmas while scoring at least 16 points in all of them: Kevin Durant, who is tied with Oscar Robertson for 12 each. James Harden (10) is the only other player with a double-digit streak, which he won’t have the opportunity to extend this season. – Pelton
Bold prediction: James and Durant will both score more than 30 points. The two superstars have reached 30 against each other 15 times across their Hall of Fame careers, and with James handling a greater offensive load due to injuries to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, they’ll do so for a 16th time on Christmas. – Kram
Injuries: Rockets | Lakers
Fantasy nugget: Durant continues to defy time, extending his prime into his late 30s with elite shotmaking and a refined, technical game that consistently translates to fantasy production. Earlier this month, he became the third-fastest player to reach 30,000 points, 5,000 rebounds and 5,000 assists, trailing only James and Michael Jordan. Durant has also elevated his play against James-led teams, averaging 28.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG and 4.7 APG versus James since the 2018-19 season. – Moody
Best bet: James over 19.5 points (-122). After easing his way back into the lineup after a long injury layoff, James has quietly found his scoring groove in the month of December. He has scored at least 23 points in five of the past six games, averaging 26.8 PPG in that span. He has been rock-solid as a scorer, regardless of who has been on the floor with him. And it’s a Christmas Day game; he has made a career out of performing when the lights shine brightest. – Snellings
Kram’s pick: Rockets 125, Lakers 115
Pelton’s pick: Lakers 118, Rockets 114
BPI prediction: HOU, 61.5%
Matchup must-reads: LeBron vs. Father Time: How James has changed, by the numbers … Durant’s chase for a third ring comes down to two young stars … Redick blunt about Lakers’ effort, defense after blowout
Broncos (12-3) at Chiefs (6-9)
8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video | DEN -13.5 (36.5 O/U)
What we’re hearing on the Broncos: Linebacker Alex Singleton might have summarized the Broncos’ to-do list the most succinctly: “We’ve got two games to go and be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.” They have to win both games to guarantee themselves the No. 1 seed and the home playoff games that come with it. And a quick bounce-back from their powerful defense is needed. They’ve never faced Chiefs quarterback Chris Oladokun, but December games in Arrowhead have long been an issue for the Broncos. Since 1990, Denver is 3-12 in such games. – Jeff Legwold
What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: Oladokun, the Chiefs’ third-string quarterback who was signed from Kansas City’s practice squad last week, is expected to make his first NFL start against the Broncos. He hopes to make the most of this moment. “We have a lot of young guys playing, but it’s a great experience,” said Oladokun, 28. “It’s going to be real valuable for us. It’s Christmas Day. The possibility of me making my first start on Christmas Day is pretty special. I’ll have family in town. I’m looking forward to it.” – Nate Taylor
Stat to know: The Chiefs have failed to score in the first half six times, including during last week’s blowout loss to the Titans. That’s been their most in a single season since 2012 (11 games). – ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix will rebound after last week’s loss to the Jaguars and finish with higher than a 75 QBR. Nix has a 59 QBR, but that number jumps to 82 when facing the blitz. Kansas City blitzes 35% of the time, third most in the NFL. – Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch the AFC West with a win and a Chargers loss Saturday. Denver also has a shot at the No. 1 seed if it wins and the Chargers, Patriots, Bills and Jaguars all lose in Week 17. See Playoff Machine. – ESPN Research
Injuries: Broncos | Chiefs
Fantasy nugget: Running back RJ Harvey and the Broncos’ rushing attack should shine against a Kansas City defense that just surrendered 31.7 fantasy points to Titans running backs Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. Harvey gets the benefit of running behind a Broncos offensive line that ranks fifth in run block win rate. See Week 17 rankings. – Moody
Betting nugget: That 36.5 number is the lowest over/under in a Chiefs home game since 2008 and tied for their lowest total in any game in the past decade. Read more. – ESPN Research
Maldonado’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 10
Moody’s pick: Broncos 23, Chiefs 13
Walder’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: DEN, 55.6% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: How a random drug test helped potentially save Alex Singleton’s life … Chiefs agree to deal to play in dome in state of Kansas … Chiefs QB Minshew avoids ACL tear
By ESPN Staff | ESPN, via ESPN