By Fred Katz | The Athletic, 2025-12-18 11:05:07
NBA近来最热门的话题，是虚无主义。
12月15日，大部分在去年夏天签下新合同的球员都获得了被交易的资格——尽管在赛季如此早期就进行交易并非惯例。每年的这个时候，一位球队高管给另一位打电话，通常只会引出一些试探性的对话。X队告诉Y队自己阵中有哪些球员可供交易，以及对Y队的哪些球员感兴趣。Y队也会做同样的事。但谈判从未真正开始。
这个过程可能会引出一些关于联盟其他28支球队动向的闲聊。在球员交换之前，先进行的是信息交换。
关于扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 的情况你听说了什么？你觉得多伦多猛龙会想办法摆脱奢侈税吗？休斯顿火箭会补充一名控球后卫吗？
另一个问题似乎也变得越来越普遍，随着交易季的非正式开启，这个问题带上了更多玩味的色彩：俄克拉荷马城雷霆持续的统治级表现，是否会影响交易市场？
雷霆正深陷于本赛季最糟糕的低谷——一波不可原谅的一场连败，考虑到此前的战绩，这感觉就像西伯利亚的寒冬：一波16连胜，以及24胜1负的赛季开局。在成为联盟历史上最年轻的总冠军六个月后，俄克拉荷马城本赛季甚至可能挑战常规赛胜场纪录。他们的防守正以相对于联盟其他球队而言历史级的效率压制着对手。卫冕MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的表现比以往任何时候都更加出色。
因此，许多排在他们身后的球队提出了一个假设：在一个绝望似乎已成定局的时代，是否还值得用未来的资产去换取当下的提升？
各支球队如何回答这个问题，可能会影响到2月5日交易截止日前交易的数量和类型。
一支实力稍逊于雷霆的球队，是会选择保留选秀权，而不是增加一名额外的轮换球员？一支处于中游的球队，是否会认为一笔能让他们在正常赛季一跃成为争冠者的明星交易不再值得，因为榜首那支24胜2负的推土机让今年变得远非寻常——尽管并非闻所未闻。
围绕着凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 和斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 的金州勇士队时，也曾有过同样的讨论。2016年，杜兰特加入了一支在神奇的73胜9负常规赛后于总决赛失利的队伍。在接下来的两年里，勇士队都赢得了总冠军。然而，一些球队仍然选择与他们竞争。
2017年，前一个春天止步第二轮的休斯顿火箭队，交易得到了克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul)。在保罗和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 的驱动下，他们打造了超强的进攻火力，赢下了65场比赛，并成为西部对杜兰特-库里时期的勇士队最大的威胁。如果火箭队在2018年西部决赛第七场没有连续投失27记三分球，他们本可以避免那种被联盟其他球队视为不可避免的覆灭命运。
毕竟，那些按兵不动、不采取行动的球队，很容易陷入自我应验的预言。
一支球队可能会以雷霆为借口，解释为什么他们现在不应该倾其所有。然后，在俄克拉荷马城最终夺冠后，他们可以说出那句*“我早就说过了”*。但如果这支球队以及其他类似的球队选择不坐等雷霆王朝的落幕，俄克拉荷马城或许就不会赢得如此轻松。
在火箭队引进保罗放手一搏的第二年，猛龙队也做了同样的事情，他们用一年的使用权引进了科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)。他们也交上了好运。伦纳德绝杀费城76人队的投篮在篮筐上颠了数下才最终落网。杜兰特在总决赛中受伤，克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson) 也是。但每个总冠军都需要好运的眷顾。
当联盟大部分球队采取较为保守的策略时，猛龙队将自己置于了一个能够成功的位置。对抗强权的最好方式，就是用实力回击。
无论各队选择如何应对雷霆的成功，今年的交易截止日都有可能不会太繁忙。
现行的劳资协议使得赛季中期交易比以往任何时候都更加困难。由于新规，更多的球队要么处于硬工资帽之下，要么担心会触发硬工资帽。许多球队在交易中不被允许收入比送出更多的薪金，这使得情况变得复杂，并常常需要第三方球队的介入。
同时，处于奢侈税线以上的球队数量也异常之多。
所有这些因素都让补强球员的过程变得一团糟。
目前积分榜的胶着状态也让潜在的交易谈判更加混乱。例如，截至周三晚赛前，东部第3名与第9名之间仅有一个负场差。这个集团包括猛龙、波士顿凯尔特人、奥兰多魔术、76人、克利夫兰骑士、亚特兰大老鹰和迈阿密热火。这些球队中，有谁会愿意与另一支球队交易，明知此举可能帮助竞争对手在排名上超越自己？如果答案是否定的，那么联盟四分之一的球队之间的交易就被封锁了。
而在这些球队之上的那个梯队，存在着对“雷霆虚无主义”所有最引人入胜的答案。
领跑东部联盟的底特律活塞队，是否会为了辅佐明星球员凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 而进行交易。（Brian Sevald / NBAE via Getty Images）
战绩21胜5负的底特律活塞队，作为一支拥有明确特性和冉冉升起超级巨星的年轻队伍，是否应该送出一堆选秀权去换取像劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 这样的球员？还是说，他们应该先看看队内现有球员的潜力？
纽约尼克斯队是否应该将他们手中所剩无几的筹码——一个首轮选秀权互换权和一堆次轮选秀权——全部推上牌桌？
对于东部的球队来说，答案可能更简单一些，他们只需要打进总决赛，然后祈求最好的结果。但在雷霆所在的西部，情况则要复杂得多。
战绩18胜7负的洛杉矶湖人队，是否有立即提升实力的冲动，趁着卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić)、勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 还在并肩作战，而不是选择等待？他们有一个可以交易的首轮签。战绩16胜7负的火箭队，是否会动用他们丰富的选秀权储备来引进一名控卫？战绩18胜7负的圣安东尼奥马刺队，是否将自己看作不仅仅是一支勇敢的新锐，并引进一位大牌球星来推动他们即刻前进？
当然，各支球队也可以说服自己，现在正是挑战俄克拉荷马城崛起之路的理想时机。
雷霆队战绩为24胜2负，但他们依然年轻。吉尔杰斯-亚历山大还在不断进步。他们的第二和第三号球员，杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，都尚未进入巅峰期。他们还拥有洛杉矶快船队2026年的首轮选秀权——而快船队正在分崩离析。雷霆在2026年获得状元签的机会可能不亚于任何人。他们最终可能还会得到犹他爵士队的首轮签，并且应该也能拿到76人队的。
库里-杜兰特时期的勇士队是脆弱的。杜兰特在勇士的三个赛季里，每年都签下一年合同。关于他可能去往别处的传闻在那段时间里一直萦绕着球队。在那年季后赛之后，联盟其他球队还能看到一丝希望的曙光。
或许，随着时间的推移，面对俄克拉荷马城，那束光会变得更加微弱。或许，这些球队中会有一支或多支队伍决定，对抗强权的最好方式，就是用实力回击。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Will OKC's dominance steal NBA trade deadline's thunder?
Will OKC’s dominance steal NBA trade deadline’s thunder?
The NBA’s latest hot topic is nihilism.
On Dec. 15, most players who signed new contracts this past summer became eligible to be traded — though deals this early in the season aren’t the norm. Around this time of year, one executive calling another usually leads to exploratory conversations. Team X tells Team Y which of its players are available and which of Team Y’s it likes. Team Y does the same. Negotiations never emerge.
The sequence can lead to chatter about what’s going on with the other 28 teams. Before an exchange of players comes an exchange of information.
What are you hearing about the Giannis Antetokounmpo situation? Do you think the Toronto Raptors will get out of the luxury tax? Will the Houston Rockets add a point guard?
Another question seems to have grown more prevalent, too, one that boasts a little more gusto with trade season unofficially underway: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder’s consistent dominance affect the trade market?
The Thunder are mired in their worst slump of the season, an inexcusable one-game losing streak that must feel like a Siberian winter, given what occurred before it: a 16-game winning streak and 24-1 start to a season. Six months removed from becoming the youngest champions in league history, Oklahoma City could challenge for the regular-season wins record. The defense is suffocating opponents at a historic rate relative to the rest of the league. The reigning MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is better than ever
So various teams below them have posed the hypothetical: Is it worth it to trade away future pieces just to get better in a time when despair feels inevitable?
How teams answer that question could affect the number of trades, and which types of them go down before the Feb. 5 deadline.
Does a team slightly below the Thunder hold onto draft picks instead of adding an extra rotation piece? Does one in the middle of the pack deem a deal for a star, one who would vault them to contender status in a normal season, not worthwhile because a 24-2 steamroller sitting atop the standings makes this year far from normal, though not unheard of.
The same conversation followed around Kevin Durant’s and Stephen Curry’s Golden State Warriors. In 2016, Durant joined a group that lost in the finals after a magical 73-9 regular season. The Warriors won the title in each of the next two years. Yet, some teams still chose to compete with them.
In 2017, the Houston Rockets, a second-round out the previous spring, traded for Chris Paul. With Paul and James Harden fueling a super-powered offense, they won 65 games and emerged as the grandest Western Conference threat to the Durant-Curry Warriors. Had the Rockets not erred on 27 consecutive 3-pointers in Game 7 of the 2018 conference finals, they could have fended off the same demise the rest of the NBA considered inevitable.
After all, organizations that sit on their hands instead of making moves are susceptible to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A team could point to the Thunder as evidence of why they should not go all in right now. They could then spew out Told Ya So’s after OKC wins it all. But it’s possible Oklahoma City wouldn’t have had such an easy time if that franchise, and others like it, chose not to wait out the Thunder.
The year after the Rockets went for it with Paul, the Raptors did the same, acquiring Kawhi Leonard on a one-year rental. They ran into luck. Leonard’s buzzer-beater to down the Philadelphia 76ers touched every part of the rim before it fell through the net. Durant got hurt in the finals, as did Klay Thompson. But every champ requires good fortune.
The Raptors put themselves in a position to succeed when much of the league took a less aggressive approach. The best way to fight power is with power.
It’s possible this year’s trade deadline isn’t busy, no matter how teams choose to respond to the Thunder’s success.
The current collective bargaining agreement has made it more difficult than ever to pull off in-season trades. Because of the new rules, more teams are either hard-capped or worried about getting hard-capped than ever. Many franchises aren’t allowed to take in more money than they send out in trades, which complicates matters and often requires a third team to enter deals.
An unusual number of organizations are in the luxury tax, too.
All of these factors muck up the process of adding players.
The standings being so close right now has made potential trade negotiations messier, as well. For example, heading into Wednesday night, the East’s No. 3 and No. 9 seeds were separated by one loss. The group includes the Raptors, Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic, 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat. Would any of those teams trade with another, knowing the move could help a rival pass them in the standings? And if the answer is no, then that untangles a quarter of the league.
The tier above those squads is where all the most fascinating answers to Thunder nihilism exist.
Do the Detroit Pistons, who lead the Eastern Conference, make a trade to complement star Cade Cunningham. (Brian Sevald / NBAE via Getty Images)
Should the 21-5 Detroit Pistons, a young group with a clear identity and an up-and-coming superstar, send out a bunch of picks for someone like Lauri Markkanen? Or should they see what they have in-house first?
Should the New York Knicks shove the few chips they have remaining, a first-round pick swap and a surplus of second-rounders, into the middle of the table?
The answer might be easier for teams in the East, who just need to get to the finals and hope for the best, than it is inside the Thunder’s conference.
Do the 18-7 Los Angeles Lakers have the urge to improve right now, when Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves are all still together, instead of waiting? They have a first-rounder to trade. Do the 16-7 Rockets part with their trove of picks to acquire a point guard? Do the 18-7 San Antonio Spurs fancy themselves as more than just a plucky upstart and bring in a big name to propel them forward immediately?
Of course, teams could convince themselves that now is the ideal moment in Oklahoma City’s timeline to go all in.
The Thunder are 24-2 but are still young. Gilgeous-Alexander keeps getting better. Their second- and third-best players, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, are not yet in their primes. They own the L.A. Clippers’ first-round selection in 2026 — and the Clippers are combusting. The Thunder could have as great a chance as anyone to earn the No. 1 pick in 2026. They could end up with the Utah Jazz’s first-rounder and should get the 76ers’.
The Curry-Durant Warriors were fragile. Durant signed one-year contracts during each of his three seasons there. Murmurs of him potentially heading elsewhere lingered around the team during that time. Beyond that season’s playoffs, the rest of the league could spot slivers of daylight.
Maybe down the line with Oklahoma City, there will be even less light. Maybe one or more of these teams decides the greatest way to fight power is with power.
By Fred Katz, via The Athletic