By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-12-17 20:00:00
当印第安纳步行者队在2025年距离NBA总冠军仅一步之遥，将夺冠大热俄克拉荷马城雷霆队拖入抢七大战，最终因泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 跟腱断裂而憾负时，这一幕与他们首次闯入冠军争夺战的经历何其相似。
十八个月前，步行者队杀入了首届NBA杯（当时暂时命名为季中锦标赛）的决赛。尽管他们在那场决赛中同样负于洛杉矶湖人队，但在拉斯维加斯学到的经验教训，对这支自2014年以来就再未赢过一轮季后赛的步行者队而言，无疑是宝贵的财富。
如今，圣安东尼奥马刺队也面临着相似的处境。他们自小组赛以来，在四场不容有失的比赛中连续告捷，成功闯入周二对阵纽约尼克斯队的决赛，其中前三场胜利还是在当家球星维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 缺阵的情况下取得的。尽管马刺最终以113-124不敌对手，但步行者队在NBA杯赛上铺就的蓝图，正是马刺可以效仿的路径。
此外，尽管未能闯入冠军战，但冉冉升起的奥兰多魔术队无疑也希望，他们在本届NBA杯的征程能同样成为季后赛的跳板。
魔术队未能迈过季后赛首轮的时间甚至比印第安纳更长，他们上一次晋级还要追溯到2010年，当时德怀特·霍华德 (Dwight Howard) 率领球队杀入了东部决赛。与此同时，马刺队也正朝着终结联盟第二长的季后赛荒（他们上一次亮相季后赛首轮是在2019年）稳步迈进。
考虑到以上这些，让我们一同探讨圣安东尼奥或奥兰多该如何追随印第安纳的脚步，将此次NBA杯的经历作为季后赛征途中的一块关键垫脚石。
高压赛事的初体验
在2023年的阵容中，印第安纳的确拥有一位新科NBA总冠军成员——布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown)，他几天前刚帮助丹佛掘金队夺冠，随后便被步行者队签下。但是，在2023年NBA杯决赛中为步行者出战的14名球员里，有多达10人从未有过季后赛经验。
这批球员中就包括哈利伯顿，在此前的三个赛季里，他所在的球队常规赛战绩从未好于胜率五成以下10场。若非因伤缺阵，他的后场搭档安德鲁·内姆哈德 (Andrew Nembhard) 本也该是其中一员。
相比之下，魔术队和马刺队当前阵容的季后赛经验要更丰富一些，但也仅是略胜一筹。值得注意的是，尽管连续进入季后赛，魔术队当前阵容的季后赛总出场数（139场）在全联盟中仍排名倒数第二。（仅有在NBA杯四分之一决赛中出局的多伦多猛龙队比他们更少，为106场。）
奥兰多的所有核心球员都有季后赛经验，但没有人突破过第二轮。而联盟中其他所有球队都至少拥有一名有过数轮季后赛经验的球员。这其中就包括圣安东尼奥，他们全队225场的季后赛经验主要集中在几位老将身上：哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) (71场)、凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk) (48场)、卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) (43场) 和 俾斯麦·比永博 (Bismack Biyombo) (40场)。德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 是队内唯一一位拥有季后赛经验的轮换球员，他曾帮助萨克拉门托国王队终结了自己的季后赛荒。
在西部C组（本届NBA杯竞争最激烈的小组）的两场生死战中，马刺赢下第一场后，在喧闹的年轻队友迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 身边，福克斯展现出了一位饱经沙场的老将风范。这位2025年的榜眼秀年仅19岁，他和近年的年度最佳新秀得主文班亚马及斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)（均为21岁）一样，将是从NBA杯淘汰赛阶段与经验远胜于己的对手交锋中获益最多的球员。
正如2023年的NBA杯让广大球迷认识了哈利伯顿——当时他距离首次入选全明星还有数月，也远未建立起关键球先生的声誉——过去两轮的NBA杯也成为了文班亚马重要的展示舞台。尽管文班亚马以状元身份驾临联盟万众期待，但这些杯赛无疑是他迄今为止打过的最具分量的NBA比赛。在周六爆冷击败卫冕冠军雷霆队的比赛中，他从腿筋伤势中复出，在21分钟内贡献22分，期间马刺净胜雷霆21分，并送给对手赛季第二败。
这正是马刺和魔术与最终的冠军尼克斯队的区别所在。诚然，纽约并未将一座NBA杯冠军奖杯，增添到近期由同一批核心球星赢得的总冠军旗帜之旁。然而，尼克斯队在过去三个赛季中每年都至少赢得一轮季后赛，并在去年成功闯入东部决赛，这让他们成为了本赛季东部的夺冠热门。
实际上，就比赛场次和出场时间而言，纽约队的季后赛经验在所有晋级拉斯维加斯的球队中最为丰富，甚至超过了雷霆队。因此，对于尼克斯来说，NBA杯决赛更像是旧地重游，而非踏入全新领域。
步行者的成功先例
印第安纳与今年NBA杯的年轻竞争者们最大的不同在于，当时的步行者阵容仍处于构建之中。晋级NBA杯决赛，以及在决赛中以109-123不敌湖人队所暴露出的问题，无疑促使印第安纳在次月决定交易得到老将前锋帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)。事实证明，西亚卡姆成为步行者核心阵容的最后一块关键拼图，他们先是在2024年杀入分区决赛，并于上个赛季最终闯入了NBA总决赛。
魔术队则希望他们已经完成了自己版本的“西亚卡姆式引援”，他们在六月引进了后卫德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)。贝恩在奥兰多开局慢热的表现早已成为遥远的记忆，在NBA杯四分之一决赛对阵迈阿密的比赛中，他命中六记三分球，独得37分，点燃了魔术队的反击火焰。
对圣安东尼奥而言，为年轻核心增添一名老将的交易发生在2025年交易截止日前，当时马刺队引进了福克斯。在老将克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 担任首发控卫的马刺队中，福克斯起初难以融入，但自从11月从腿筋伤势中回归后，他的表现越来越符合圣安东尼奥对这位十年老将的期待。他场均得到24分，真实命中率（.608）创下其NBA生涯新高。
在NBA杯四分之一决赛中，福克斯是稳定军心的力量，帮助马刺抵挡住了湖人队的反扑。在比赛还剩3分35秒时，福克斯的三分球终结了湖人一波11-0的攻势，将圣安东尼奥的领先优势重新扩大到两位数。
马刺的不同之处在于，如果他们想在季后赛前补强阵容，他们有能力进行第二笔重磅交易。尽管为了得到福克斯付出了多个首轮签，圣安东尼奥在未来每一年的选秀中仍至少握有一个首轮签，此外还有2026年（与亚特兰大）、2028年（波士顿）、2030年（达拉斯和明尼苏达）以及2031年（萨克拉门托）的选秀权互换资格。
我们曾将马刺列为扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 或安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 若在赛季中期被交易时的潜在下家之一。
马刺此次的NBA杯之旅也可能产生与步行者相反的效果——它向外界表明，既然球队已围绕文班亚马配备了如此多的外线天赋，他们或许并不需要另一笔重磅引援，最快在今年春天就能在季后赛中具备竞争力。
分区决赛的助推器？
在马刺周六取胜之后，若要论及复制印第安纳“从多年不胜一轮季后赛到凭借NBA杯淘汰赛的胜利杀入分区决赛”的壮举，赔率依旧更看好奥兰多。在完成贝恩的交易后，魔术队以更高的期望值开启了本赛季，并且得益于东部众多球队的伤病情况，他们通往季后赛后半段的道路也更为清晰。
尽管到目前为止圣安东尼奥的战绩更优——且在文班亚马缺阵的情况下打了12场比赛——但ESPN篮球实力指数（BPI）的预测显示，奥兰多在赛季结束时的平均战绩仅落后一场。这部分源于赛程安排。BPI将马刺的剩余赛程难度评为联盟第五，而魔术的剩余赛程则被评为最轻松。
这在一定程度上是因为BPI持续将西部评为更强的联盟。剩余赛程最艰难的前六支球队均来自西部，而最轻松的两支球队则来自东部。除此之外，周六的半决赛结束后，奥兰多已经完成了与尼克斯的常规赛系列赛，并且在他们已进行的13场与BPI排名后五位球队的比赛中，只打了两场。（圣安东尼奥打了四场。）
联盟东西部的实力差距也应会在种子排位上让魔术队受益。在超过三分之二的模拟中，奥兰多能获得前四种子及首轮主场优势，而马刺在模拟中获得该优势的比例则略低于一半（47%）。魔术队甚至仍有现实可能追上与底特律活塞队5.5个胜场的差距，并以东部最佳战绩结束常规赛。考虑到俄克拉荷马城目前历史级的表现，这对圣安东尼奥来说或许已经遥不可及。
综合以上因素，BPI认为奥兰多本赛季杀入分区决赛的概率要高得多。这种情况在31%的模拟中发生，而马刺进入西部决赛的概率仅为9.5%。
无论是在本赛季实现还是需要更长时间，只要文班亚马保持健康，圣安东尼奥在季后赛取得突破或许只是时间问题。当马刺或魔术队迎来这一刻时，就像之前的步行者队一样，NBA杯的这段征程将成为他们故事中不可或缺的关键篇章。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Can the Spurs turn their NBA Cup run into a Finals berth?
Can the Spurs turn their NBA Cup run into a Finals berth?
When the Indiana Pacers got to within a game of the 2025 NBA championship, taking the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder the distance before losing Game 7 with Tyrese Haliburton suffering an Achilles rupture, there was an echo of the team’s first run to a title game.
Eighteen months earlier, the Pacers had reached the final of the inaugural NBA Cup, then, temporarily branded as the In-Season Tournament. And though Indiana also lost that final to the Los Angeles Lakers, the lessons learned in Las Vegas proved useful for a Pacers team that hadn’t won a playoff series since 2014.
Now, the San Antonio Spurs find themselves in a similar position, having triumphed in four consecutive must-win games since the group stage to reach Tuesday’s final against the New York Knicks, the first three of them without star Victor Wembanyama. Despite San Antonio dropping the final 124-113, the Pacers’ NBA cup road map is something the Spurs can follow.
And although they didn’t reach the title game, the rising Orlando Magic are surely also hoping their NBA Cup run can act as a similar springboard for the postseason.
Orlando has gone even longer without advancing in the playoffs than Indiana, having last done so when Dwight Howard led the Magic to the 2010 Eastern Conference finals. Meanwhile, the Spurs are well on their way to snapping the league’s second-longest playoff drought, having last appeared in the first round in 2019.
With all that in mind, let’s take a look at how San Antonio or Orlando can follow in Indiana’s footsteps and use this NBA Cup experience as a crucial stepping stone for the postseason.
A taste of high stakes
Indiana did have a recent NBA champion on its 2023 roster in Bruce Brown, signed away from the Denver Nuggets after helping them to the title days earlier. But 10 of the 14 players who played for the Pacers in the 2023 NBA Cup final had never appeared in a playoff game.
That group included Haliburton, whose teams had never finished fewer than 10 games below .500 through the three previous seasons. That group also would have included backcourt mate Andrew Nembhard had he not been sidelined by injury.
By comparison, the Magic and Spurs have more playoff experience on their current rosters, but not by much. Remarkably, despite consecutive appearances, the Magic have the second-fewest combined playoff games on their current roster of any team in the NBA at 139. (Only the Toronto Raptors, who lost in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, have fewer with 106.)
All of Orlando’s key players have playoff experience, but none have ever advanced beyond the second round. Every other NBA team has at least one player with multiround experience. That includes San Antonio, whose 225 playoff games are primarily concentrated between veterans Harrison Barnes (71), Kelly Olynyk (48), Luke Kornet (43) and Bismack Biyombo (40). De’Aaron Fox, with one series that helped the Sacramento Kings end their own drought, is the lone other rotation player with playoff experience.
In the Spurs’ victorious locker room after the first of two must-win games to advance from West Group C, the most competitive NBA Cup group, Fox gave off the air of a grizzled veteran alongside boisterous young teammate Dylan Harper. The 2025 No. 2 pick is 19 years old, and along with recent Rookie of the Year winners Wembanyama and Stephon Castle (both 21), will figure to benefit the most from playing against far more experienced teams in the NBA Cup knockout stages.
As the 2023 NBA Cup run introduced casual fans to Haliburton – a few months away from his All-Star debut and long before Haliburton earned a reputation as a clutch shotmaker – the last two rounds of the NBA Cup were an important showcase for Wembanyama. As anticipated as Wembanyama’s arrival as the No. 1 pick was, these cup games were among the most meaningful NBA games he has played to date. He responded with 22 points in 21 minutes in his return from a calf strain for Saturday’s upset win over the defending champion Thunder, during which San Antonio outscored Oklahoma City by 21 points, handing the Thunder only their second loss of the season.
That’s where the Spurs and Magic differ from the eventual champion Knicks. No, New York didn’t add the NBA Cup to a recent championship banner won with the same core stars. However, the Knicks have won a playoff series each of the last three seasons, culminating in last year’s trip to the Eastern Conference Finals that cemented them as East favorites this season.
New York’s roster actually features the most playoff experience in terms of games and minutes played of any team to reach Las Vegas, ahead of the Thunder. So the NBA Cup final was more old hat than new territory for the Knicks.
Pacers’ proof of concept
The biggest difference between Indiana and this year’s young NBA Cup contenders is that, at the time, the Pacers’ roster was a work in progress. The combination of advancing to the NBA Cup final and getting exposed there by the Lakers in a 123-109 loss surely played into Indiana’s decision to trade for veteran forward Pascal Siakam the following month. Siakam proved to be the final key of a Pacers core that reached the 2024 conference finals before reaching the NBA finals last postseason.
The Magic hope they’ve made their version of the Siakam move by adding guard Desmond Bane in June. Bane’s predictable slow start with Orlando was a distant memory as he knocked down six 3-pointers to fuel a Magic comeback in the NBA Cup quarterfinals against Miami, finishing with 37 points.
For San Antonio, the trade to add a veteran to its young core came when the Spurs acquired Fox before the 2025 trade deadline. After initially struggling to fit in on a Spurs team with veteran Chris Paul starting at point guard, Fox has looked more like what San Antonio expected of the 10-year guard since returning from a hamstring strain in November. He’s averaging 24 points on the best true shooting percentage (.608) of his NBA career.
Fox was a stabilizing force in the NBA Cup quarterfinals as the Spurs fended off a Lakers comeback. Fox’s 3-pointer with 3:35 left stopped an 11-0 Lakers run and pushed San Antonio’s lead back to double digits.
The Spurs differ with their current ability to make a second big trade if they want to improve their roster before the postseason. Despite giving up multiple first-round picks to get Fox, San Antonio still has at least one first-round pick in every future draft, plus swaps in 2026 (with Atlanta), 2028 (Boston), 2030 (Dallas and Minnesota) and 2031 (Sacramento).
We included the Spurs as a possible destination if either Giannis Antetokounmpo or Anthony Davis is traded midseason.
San Antonio’s NBA Cup run could potentially have the opposite effect from the Pacers – showing the Spurs don’t need another big addition to compete in the playoffs as soon as this spring, now that they’ve surrounded Wembanyama with so much perimeter talent.
Conference finals booster?
In the wake of San Antonio’s win Saturday, when it comes to matching Indiana’s feat of going from not winning a playoff series in years to the conference finals with an NBA Cup knockout win in between, the odds still favor Orlando. The Magic entered the season with higher expectations after the Bane trade and has the benefit of a clearer path to the late rounds of the playoffs with so many injuries in the East.
Even though San Antonio has the better record thus far – and has played 12 games without Wembanyama – projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) have Orlando finishing just a game back in the standings on average. That’s partially because of the schedule. BPI rates the Spurs’ remaining schedule the fifth hardest in the NBA, while the remaining Magic games rate as the easiest.
Part of that is a product of BPI continuing to peg the West as the stronger conference. The top six-hardest schedules left belong to West teams, while East teams have the two easiest left. Beyond that, Saturday’s semifinal completed Orlando’s season series against the Knicks, and the Magic have played only two of their 13 scheduled games against the bottom five teams in BPI. (San Antonio has played four.)
The conference gap should also benefit the Magic in terms of seeding. Orlando claims a top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round more than two-thirds of the time, as compared to a little better than less than half of simulations for the Spurs (47%). There’s still a realistic chance for the Magic to make up a 5.5-game gap on the Detroit Pistons and finish with the East’s best record. That’s probably off the table for San Antonio, given Oklahoma City’s current historic pace.
Add up those factors, and BPI gives Orlando much better odds of reaching the conference finals this season. That happens in 31% of simulations, with the Spurs reaching the West finals just 9.5% of the time.
Whether it happens this season or takes longer, a San Antonio playoff breakthrough is probably coming as long as Wembanyama stays healthy. When that takes place for the Spurs or the Magic, like the Pacers before them, an NBA Cup run will be a key part of the story.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN