By John Hollinger | The Athletic, 2025-12-16 15:42:45
跟着钱走。
这在几乎所有新闻领域都是金玉良言，但当你报道一个拥有复杂工资帽、惩罚性奢侈税和限制性工资帽 apron 的体育联盟时，这句话就显得尤为正确。正如我之前在这里说过的，在NBA的交易电话会议上，联盟办公室会说球队交易的是“球员X的合同”，而不是“球员X”本人，这是有原因的。
因此，尽管我们可能非常喜欢那种所谓的“挑战性交易”，即纯粹的球员一对一互换——梦幻联盟因此而蓬勃发展！——但在NBA，这类交易却极为罕见。大多数时候，交易市场的真正动向在于匹配合同，以适应各队的工资帽现实。如果交易恰好也能在篮球场上有所帮助，那当然很好。但对于许多交易而言，这并非必要条件。
以此为开场白，祝大家交易季愉快！12月15日标志着赛季中期运作的发令枪非正式地打响，因为大量在休赛期签约的球员将从这一天起具备被交易的资格。（其他一些球员则要到1月15日才能被交易。）这给了我们大约10周的时间进行交易，直到2月5日的交易截止日。而本着各地圣诞购物者的精神，大多数球队都会拖到最后几个小时才完成他们的交易。
尽管如此，未来几天里的电话沟通将呈现出新的紧迫性，因为大多数球队在联盟非正式的“休赛周”里有了一些喘息和评估的时间，这段时间赛程放缓10天，以完成NBA杯的比赛。球探和高管们将在本周末的G联盟冬季展示会期间进行一些面对面的交流，一旦日历翻到2026年，联盟各处的电话将会以更高的频率响起（或振动）。
所以，今天的主题就是铺垫：哪些球员最有可能卷入交易？为什么？正如你将看到的，其中一些名字显而易见，已经被讨论了很长时间，但另一些名字只有在你记起我们身处一个有工资帽的联盟时才会浮出水面。另外，在开始前请注意：虽然可能达成交易的方式有无数种，且一笔秘密交易随时可能从天而降，让我们措手不及（就像卢卡的交易那样！），但我将重点关注那些根据工资帽情况和我自己的管理层经验来看最有可能发生的情况。
以下是我评选的2025-26赛季交易截止日焦点阵容。
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)，大前锋，雄鹿队
首先，让我们从名单上那个最显而易见、毋庸置疑的名字开始！如果阿德托昆博说他想走，那他就会走。就这么简单。本赛季结束后，他的合同还剩一年球队控制期，之后就可能成为完全自由球员，所以如果他想离开，现在最大化回报将非常符合雄鹿队的利益。眼下的感觉有点像达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 式的局面，双方都不想成为那个率先摊牌的人。（现实点说：如果你在玩游戏里的总经理模式，你昨天就该交易阿德托昆博，用海量的选秀权和球员进行重建。但现实生活总是更复杂。）
这里的关键数字是5410万美元。这是阿德托昆博的薪水，对于任何球队的薪资表来说，这都是一个巨大的数字，特别是对于那些已经被某个工资帽 apron 束缚的球队。此外，得到他的球队必须送出至少4330万美元的合同才能合法地获得他的合同，如果超过了某个工资帽 apron，这个数字可能还会更高。
另一方面，如果阿德托昆博在二月份之前不试图强行离队，而雄鹿队转而进行某种孤注一掷地“取悦阿德托昆博”的交易呢？我们的同事埃里克·内姆 (Eric Nehm) 已经概述了雄鹿队面临的几个选项。对他们有利的一点是，他们距离奢侈税线还有1400万美元的空间，可以吃进比送出更多的薪水。（想必雄鹿队不会疯狂到交易他们2031年的首轮签——这是他们目前唯一可以交易的首轮签——但我们也不能排除这种可能性。）
因此，他们可能会寻求一种“用烂合同换回更烂合同”并同时得到一名有用球员的交易，但唯一薪水足够高到能实现这一点的球员是凯尔·库兹马 (Kyle Kuzma) 和博比·波蒂斯 (Bobby Portis)。此外，库兹马合同中的激励条款，无论他是否达成，都会计入工资帽 apron 的计算中，这可能会让他在那些薪资处于该区间的球队眼中吸引力大减。
最后，如果你是雄鹿队，并且已经决定交易阿德托昆博，难道不也该交易迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 吗？我们觉得这样一笔交易如何：将本尼迪克特·马图林 (Bennedict Mathurin)、以赛亚·杰克逊 (Isaiah Jackson)、约翰尼·富菲 (Johnny Furphy) 和两个次轮签送到雄鹿，让特纳回到他本该属于的印第安纳？这绝对是我最支持的一笔模拟交易。
好了，让我们继续。在所有可能被放入阿德托昆博交易方案的球员中，最明显的之一必然是……
乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga)，小前锋/大前锋，勇士队
现在说勇士队错失了良机是否为时过早？在过去五年的几乎每个阶段，他们都拒绝交易库明加，希望他要么能帮助球队赢球，要么能在未来拥有更高的交易价值。
结果却适得其反。他拿着2250万美元的薪水，在一支截至周一战绩为13胜14负的球队里频频遭遇DNP（教练决定不上场）。虽然有些因素让情况比我上一句话所描述的更为复杂，但总体形势并没有让联盟其他29支球队对他垂涎三尺。嗯，除了国王队，但这本身就应该亮起另一个红灯。
库明加的两分球命中率为48.4%，三分球命中率为32.0%，球员效率值（PER）为职业生涯新低的11.2。这已经是第五个赛季了，“他如何影响胜利？”这个问题仍然困扰着他。他能做的仅仅是一个空砍型得分手吗？话虽如此，在另一支球队，仅凭他的创造投篮机会能力就可能成为第二阵容的下限提升器。他还只有23岁，他的合同（本赛季2250万美元，下赛季2430万美元的球队选项）应该能让他轻松融入大多数薪资结构……或者作为阿德托昆博交易的核心筹码。
随着西部前六名球队逐渐甩开勇士队，而勇士队自身也摇摇欲坠，人们不禁会想，他们的斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry) 时代末期是否取决于引进又一位年迈的球星，而相对年轻的阿德托昆博（刚满31岁）是否会成为这支三大核心分别为37、36和35岁的球队的灵丹妙药。
这就引出了一个显而易见的问题：当然，金州勇士可以在一笔关于字母哥的交易中投入三个首轮签和库明加。他们还可以加上巴迪·希尔德 (Buddy Hield) 或摩西·穆迪 (Moses Moody) 中的一个，这两人都已被挤到了轮换阵容的边缘。但勇士队唯一能够匹配薪资的方式——考虑到他们已经超过了第一层工资帽 apron——就是将德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 的合同和其他薪水打包。他本赛季薪水为2590万美元，明年拥有2770万美元的球员选项。
所以，湾区大佬们面临的重大问题是：如果你的球队战绩是13胜14负，而且你知道库里和吉米·巴特勒 (Jimmy Butler) 作为改变比赛的球员可能只有18个月的保质期，那么倾其所有豪赌一把阿德托昆博难道不值得吗？或许他们最终还是会被像休斯顿火箭这样的球队出价更高，但勇士队至少必须讨论这个可能性。
拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball)，控球后卫，黄蜂队
别抱太大希望。鲍尔的薪水几乎可以肯定太高了（本赛季之后三年1.31亿美元，无任何选项），其他球队不太可能愿意投入选秀资产来得到他，至少在他证明自己更可靠或更明显地致力于帮助球队赢球之前是这样。
我理想中的鲍尔交易——在现实中绝对不可能发生——我称之为“东南赛区大洗牌”：让他、贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 和特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 互换东家，试图在新的环境中恢复他们的交易价值。
不过，我第二喜欢的鲍尔交易，实际上可能更现实一些：鲍尔和瑞安·卡尔克布伦纳 (Ryan Kalkbrenner) 去萨克拉门托，换来多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis) 和德文·卡特 (Devin Carter)。需要向所有以截取我专栏片段为生的人澄清一点：我没有任何证据表明有任何人在讨论这笔交易。但这在交易截止日将是一笔惊天动地的大交易，而且薪资上是匹配的。
国王队的所有球员，包括德玛尔·德罗赞，都应该可以被交易。 Sergio Estrada / Imagn Images
德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan)，小前锋/大前锋，国王队
我上面提到了萨博尼斯，但他很难融入大多数交易方案。随着球队正经历自由落体般的急剧下滑，国王队的所有球员都可以被交易。然而，从合同和对季后赛球队的适合性来看，德罗赞似乎是值得关注的名字。他拿着一份容易消化的2480万美元合同，并且如果情况不妙，明年的合同只有1000万美元是保障的。因此，接纳他的薪水不会像接纳萨博尼斯或扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine) 那样摧毁收购球队的薪资簿。
德罗赞在一支强队中可能需要适应第六人的角色，但那种能提升球队下限的砍分高手角色一直最适合他的技术特点。交易走德罗赞对国王队在休赛期也有价值；由于萨克拉门托的薪资总额已经达到明年的奢侈税线，除非他们交易掉一份薪水（或许您对一位轻度使用过的丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schröder) 感兴趣？）或者在赛季后裁掉德罗赞，否则他们几乎没有空间续约基翁·埃利斯 (Keon Ellis)。
奥斯曼·吉昂 (Ousmane Dieng)，大前锋，雷霆队；杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan)，大前锋，马刺队
对于这两支球队来说，这是从2022年乐透秀身上获取价值的最后机会。这些球员虽然不能说完全是水货，但随着他们身边的阵容迅速升级，他们也一直无法在轮换阵容中站稳脚跟。圣安东尼奥马刺队让34岁的凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk) 在索汉之前出场，这足以说明后者在马刺队内的地位，而吉昂在阵容深厚的雷霆队过去八场比赛中有五场DNP。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆队可以对吉昂有两种操作方式，他本赛季薪水670万美元，赛季结束后将成为受限制自由球员。由于雷霆队距离奢侈税线大约150万美元，他们可以用他换来一个次轮签和一份可裁掉的合同，从而获得阵容空间和灵活性，可以从买断市场签下一名老将，或者提拔一名他们的双向合同球员。或者，他们也可以投入自己可观的选秀资本，将吉昂变成一名轮换级别的老将。虽然他们可能会通过交易进入奢侈税区，但他们可能会将回归的薪水限制在800万美元以内，以避免为这套阵容未来可能面临的巨额重复奢侈税开启计时。
至于马刺队，他们在奢侈税线下有更多的操作空间，可以用索汉换来一名薪水1200万美元的球员，尤其是一名能投射的前锋。与俄克拉荷马城一样，马刺队也拥有海量的未来次轮签来促成交易。索汉迄今为止的成就也比吉昂多一些，对于一支重建中的球队来说，他可能是一个有趣的潜力股。
安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)，中锋，和丹尼尔·加福德 (Daniel Gafford)，中锋，独行侠队
我前面提醒过你们要跟着钱走，即使独行侠队老板帕特里克·杜蒙 (Patrick Dumont) 比大多数人都有钱，他很可能也不乐意为一支看起来要奔着乐透去的球队支付近5000万美元的税款和罚款。
即使他不在乎，也总要考虑明年，届时独行侠队将面临几乎完全相同的处境，并且由于第二层工资帽 apron 的限制，他们几乎没有任何补强阵容的能力。
交易戴维斯5400万美元的薪水可以解决这两个问题，尽管和上面的阿德托昆博一样，对于交易伙伴来说，匹配薪资很棘手，可能在今年夏天更容易完成。送走戴维斯也会温和地将独行侠队推向软性摆烂，而这个赛季他们还控制着自己的选秀权，这在未来四年里都是他们做不到的。
考虑到戴维斯的薪水、位置和年龄，也很难为他找到一个完美的下家；大多数理论上可以用到他的球队，实力都不足以证明为他进行哪怕是温和的“全力以赴”是值得的。
然而，一个更容易的交换可能涉及加福德，他是一名首发级别的中锋，签下了一份到2029年的合理合同，但他与戴维斯和德雷克·莱夫利二世 (Dereck Lively II) 的搭档效果很别扭。（莱夫利虽然因脚部手术赛季报销，但看起来是独行侠队未来的中锋人选。）
CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum)，控球后卫，奇才队
麦科勒姆和克里斯·米德尔顿 (Khris Middleton) 是华盛顿队中各队会在买断市场上关注的两名老将，但两人中只有麦科勒姆的表现足够好，在交易市场上具有真正的价值。他3070万美元的到期薪水是一个主要障碍，但可以设想这样一种交易：那些希望在2026-27赛季卸下薪资负担的球队，用选秀资产作为回报，让奇才队接手本赛季之后的薪水，尤其是考虑到华盛顿明年夏天将拥有比他们可能用掉的还要多的薪金空间（大约8000万美元）。
用即将到期的薪水和选秀权进行交易也是可能的，尽管可能性似乎较小。一个想法是，如果洛杉矶快船队能在未来八周内触底反弹：他们会愿意用两个次轮签加上约翰·柯林斯 (John Collins)、科比·布朗 (Kobe Brown) 和克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 的到期合同来换取麦科勒姆吗？
说到这里：
克里斯·保罗和他一半的前队友们，快船队
快船队的处境令人难以置信——尽管他们三位最好的球员球员效率值（PER）都在20以上，且三人加起来仅缺席了11场比赛，但他们的战绩却是6胜20负。是的，轮换阵容的其他部分就是那么糟糕。从第4号到第15号球员，快船队的阵容简直是灾难性的：唯一一个BPM值（Box Plus/Minus）高于负1.5的球员是受伤的德里克·琼斯二世 (Derrick Jones Jr.)。
史蒂夫·鲍尔默 (Steve Ballmer) 并没有哭穷，但重复奢侈税的威胁足够大，快船队可能会主动尝试削减680万美元的薪水以摆脱奢侈税。这一点在一种“先少后多”的交易中尤其适用，即用现在的薪水换取未来的薪水，以帮助充实他们2026-27赛季的阵容。明年的快船队远未达到奢侈税线，无论詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 是否跳出合同，他们都将有钱可花。
所以，回到被放逐的保罗——他的合同中仍有230万美元的薪水——以及洛杉矶的其他老将们。尼古拉斯·巴图姆 (Nic Batum)、博格丹·博格丹诺维奇 (Bogdan Bogdanović) 和布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez) 明年都有球队选项，实际上是到期合同，而保罗、约翰·柯林斯和科比·布朗的合同也即将到期。他们加起来的薪水超过6000万美元，这意味着快船队有足够的到期合同来支持几乎任何交易。只要他们在2026-27赛季接回的薪水少于约4000万美元，他们就可以以与现在大致相同的薪水留住哈登，使用他们的非奢侈税中产特例，并且仍然保持在第一层工资帽 apron 之下。
本尼迪克特·马图林 (Bennedict Mathurin)，得分后卫，步行者队
步行者队在赛季前没有与马图林续约，而他的表现也不足以让他们后悔这个决定。然而，由于印第安纳迫切需要中锋位置的帮助——是的，这是一个“过渡年”，但步行者队必须在下赛季开始前得到一名真正的中锋——并且马图林拥有步行者队唯一一份重要的到期合同，他显然成为任何旨在引进前场帮助的交易提案中的关键人物。
我已经在上面关于雄鹿队的部分透露了我最喜欢的模拟交易，但达拉斯的加福德也是一个直接的薪资匹配对象，得到他不会让步行者队进入奢侈税区。考虑到独行侠队在侧翼上的短板，这种小个换大个的交易似乎对双方都有利。
加布·文森特 (Gabe Vincent)，控球后卫，和马克西·克勒贝尔 (Maxi Kleber)，大前锋，湖人队
湖人队今年夏天可以利用鸟权留下勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)、奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 和八村垒 (Rui Hachimura)，并且根据里夫斯人为压低的工资帽保留空间，他们可能成为自由市场上的参与者——特别是如果詹姆斯在赛季后离开或以更低的薪水回归。湖人队，与上面的密尔沃基雄鹿队非常相似，在赛季结束后也可以在交易中投入更多的选秀资产，但目前只能提供一个首轮签。
话虽如此，一种能最大化他们当前和未来的阵容策略是，在交易截止日交易来2026-27赛季的薪水，届时他们仍然可以增加薪资总额，而工资帽 apron 规则不会阻止他们进行先签后换或其他操作。
洛杉矶必须小心行事，因为他们非常接近第一层工资帽 apron，在那里他们是硬工资帽，但如果送出的薪水是文森特和克勒贝尔，增加2300万美元的薪水是可能的。他们还可以通过加入贾里德·范德比尔特 (Jarred Vanderbilt) 的1150万美元薪水来钓到更大的鱼，但他的合同可能会有问题，因为它一直持续到2027-28赛季。
我可能会把这归为“机会主义”。湖人队不需要追逐糟糕的交易，但他们即将到期的合同和那一个首轮签，可能让他们在最佳时机出现时迅速出击。
何塞·阿尔瓦拉多 (Jose Alvarado)，控球后卫，鹈鹕队
鹈鹕队一团糟，但我还没听到一个令人信服的理由，说明新奥尔良为什么应该交易赫伯·琼斯 (Herb Jones) 或特雷·墨菲 (Trey Murphy)，除了其他球队真的希望他们这么做。
另一方面，阿尔瓦拉多今年夏天有一个球员选项（薪水仅为450万美元，意味着他很可能会执行），而在鹈鹕队的后场，他被挤得没有空间，那里有杰里迈亚·菲尔斯 (Jeramiah Fears) 和乔丹·普尔 (Jordan Poole)，并且还在等待德章泰·穆雷 (Dejounte Murray) 的回归。数据显示他是一名可靠的替补控卫，他的特质在一支赢球的球队中可能会发挥得更好，而且如果新东家想让他留下，他们将继承他的完全鸟权。
明尼苏达的迈克·康利手握一份到期合同。 Jesse Johnson / Imagn Images
迈克·康利 (Mike Conley)，控球后卫，森林狼队
森林狼队似乎正在寻找各种方法来升级他们薄弱的侧翼轮换。虽然他们更有可能按兵不动，但如果他们想进行任何有意义的操作，只有几种方式可选。森林狼队可以采取更大、更具野心的行动，这将涉及丹特·迪文琴佐 (Donte DiVincenzo)、纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 或两者的合同。如果不行，他们可能会满足于较小的动作，这将取决于康利1070万美元的到期合同是否成为交易的一部分——特别是考虑到博恩斯·海兰德 (Bones Hyland) 最近的表现巩固了后场深度。
明尼苏达没有选秀权可以作为交易的添头，但可以用新秀中锋琼·贝林格 (Joan Beringer) 作为诱饵，换回一名薪水不超过1500万美元的球员。
萨姆·豪泽 (Sam Hauser)，大前锋，和安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons)，控球后卫，凯尔特人队
在没有杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的情况下，凯尔特人队的表现比预期的要好，但这仍然无法改变他们的财务现实——本赛季将薪资降到奢侈税线以下，可以让他们摆脱沉重的重复奢侈税，并且根据他们未来可能采取的其他行动，甚至可能完全重置未来的奢侈税计时。
波士顿基本上有两种机制来做到这一点。第一种是将豪泽和几个出场时间不多的底薪球员（比如克里斯·布歇 (Chris Boucher) 和贝勒·谢尔曼 (Baylor Scheierman)）交易到另一支球队而不收回任何薪水；在这种情况下，诱饵将是豪泽以及一份在本赛季之后三年平均年薪1170万美元的合同。重要的是，豪泽的薪水可以被纳入非奢侈税中产特例，这意味着联盟中唯一有薪金空间的球队（布鲁克林篮网）不是这里唯一的客户。
如果豪泽的投篮表现更好，这个交易包会更具吸引力，但他本赛季在三分线外的挣扎（三分命中率仅34.2%，PER值为9.3）已经限制了他的价值。另一方面，如果一个竞争对手认为这只是随机波动，并且更相信他职业生涯41.2%的三分命中率，他们可能会对能得到他的价格感到兴奋。
实现这一目标的另一种方法是，用西蒙斯2770万美元的到期合同换来一个薪水不超过1500万美元的球员。这笔交易更有可能需要篮网队的帮助，而他们的要价可能对凯尔特人来说太高了，但也有可能将西蒙斯交易换来多个较小的合同，然后将收到的薪水分拆到其他目的地。
速览
• 费城76人队 已超出奢侈税线670万美元，可能不会完全脱离，但至少可以通过将鲜有上场机会的老将埃里克·戈登 (Eric Gordon) 送到另一支球队的门口，来节省数百万的税款。76人队还需要这个阵容名额，以便在多姆·巴洛 (Dom Barlow) 和贾巴里·沃克 (Jabari Walker) 这两位双向合同球员成为费城轮换主力后，将他们转为正式合同。
• 纽约尼克斯队 看起来是东部冠军的有力争夺者，但由于他们距离第二层工资帽 apron 线仅有毫厘之差，除非他们能为阵容末端的某个合同找到下家，否则他们无法参与买断市场。最有可能的是二年级生帕科姆·达迪耶 (Pacôme Dadiet) 的290万美元薪水，但也可能是穆罕默德·迪亚瓦拉 (Mohamed Diawara) 的120万美元。纽约仍然手握多个未来的次轮签，可以为接收球队的交易增添甜头。
• 奥兰多魔术队 超出奢侈税线560万美元，即使作为东部的竞争者，魔术队也可能会 tempted to 付钱给另一支球队，让他们接手泰厄斯·琼斯 (Tyus Jones) 的700万美元合同，从而回到奢侈税线以下。琼斯几乎毫无存在感，其9.2%的使用率此前被认为对于一个控球后卫来说是不可能的。在NBA杯半决赛中，一旦杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 下场，奥兰多在第四节选择启用新秀杰斯·理查德森 (Jase Richardson) 而不是琼斯，这似乎说明了问题。
• 菲尼克斯太阳队 距离奢侈税线不到27.5万美元，这只是一个小数目，但考虑到低于该线的球队可以获得的分红，这笔差额就变得昂贵了。因此，在没有更大交易的情况下，预计太阳队会有一个小动作。鲜有上场机会的中锋尼克·理查兹 (Nick Richards) 薪水为500万美元，可能成为被交易的候选人，或者菲尼克斯可以付钱给另一支球队，让他们接手奈杰尔·海耶斯-戴维斯 (Nigel Hayes-Davis) 的210万美元合同。这也将使太阳队成为买断市场的参与者。
• 丹佛掘金队 只有在卡姆·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson) 达成他合同中不太可能的激励条款时才会超过奢侈税线，但他们如此接近，以至于除非他们能送走亨特·泰森 (Hunter Tyson) 或杰伦·皮克特 (Jalen Pickett) 的220万美元合同，否则他们将被排除在买断市场之外。
• 多伦多猛龙队 超出奢侈税线一百万美元，但猛龙队喜欢他们的大多数底薪球员。对多伦多来说，最便捷的退出方式可能是一笔涉及奥凯·阿巴基 (Ochai Agbaji) 的交易，他是一名有用的球员，薪水为640万美元，但合同即将到期，下赛季不太可能回归。如果不行，交易掉乔纳森·莫博 (Jonathan Mogbo) 或杰米森·巴特尔 (Jamison Battle) 的196万美元合同也能让他们回到线以下。
• 克利夫兰骑士队 拥有联盟遥遥领先的最高薪资总额，但在东部仅排第八，战绩为15胜12负，并且刚刚在主场输给了夏洛特。现在恐慌还为时过早，但骑士队已经因为去年花费巨大而冻结了2032年的选秀权，并且本赛季超出第二层工资帽 apron 2200万美元。如果“解冻选秀权行动”成为老板的指令，请关注那些表现不佳的合同，如朗佐·鲍尔 (Lonzo Ball)（1000万美元）和迪恩·韦德 (Dean Wade)（660万美元），以及德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter)（2330万美元）和马克斯·斯特鲁斯 (Max Strus)（1590万美元）的更大合同，这两份合同在本赛季之后都还有一年。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：NBA All-Deadline Team: Giannis, Jonathan Kuminga and following the money
NBA All-Deadline Team: Giannis, Jonathan Kuminga and following the money
Follow the money.
It’s good advice in almost any realm of journalism, but it’s particularly valid if you happen to cover a sports league with a complicated salary cap, punitive luxury tax and restrictive cap aprons. As I’ve said here before, there’s a reason that, on NBA trade calls, the league office says teams are trading “the contract of Player X” rather than “Player X.”
Thus, as much as we may love the so-called “challenge” trade of one player for another — fantasy leagues thrive on them! — they are vanishingly rare in the NBA. Most of the time, the real action in the trade market is in lining up contracts to match teams’ salary-cap realities. If it also happens to help on the basketball court, that’s nice. But for many of these deals, it’s not essential.
With that intro, happy trade season, everyone! Dec. 15 marks the unofficial starter’s gun on in-season maneuvers, as a great many players who signed contracts in the offseason become trade-eligible on that date. (Some others will not be eligible until Jan. 15.) That gives us roughly 10 weeks of shopping until the trade deadline of Feb. 5, and in the true spirit of Christmas shoppers everywhere, most teams will drag their feet until the final hours before completing their deals.
Nonetheless, the phone calls will take on a new urgency in the coming days, as most teams had some time to exhale and take stock during the league’s unofficial “bye week,” when the schedule slows down for 10 days to allow the NBA Cup to complete. Scouts and execs will get some face time during this weekend’s G League Winter Showcase, and phones around the league will ring (or vibrate) with increased intensity once the calendar flips to 2026.
So, today is all about setting the stage: Who are the players most likely to be involved in trades, and why? As you’ll see, some of these names are obvious and have been talked about for a while, but others only come to light once you remember that we’re in a salary-cap league. Also, one note before we begin: While there are literally infinite ways to potentially put deals together, and a furtive deal can always slobberknock us from out of nowhere (hi, Luka!), I’ve focused on what are the most likely based on cap situations and my own front-office experience.
Here is my All-Deadline Team for 2025-26.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, Bucks
Captain Obvious off the top rope! Let’s get this started with the most hammer-to-the-head obvious name on the list. If Antetokounmpo says he wants to be gone, he’s gone. It’s that simple. He has one season under team control after this one and then could become an unrestricted free agent, so it would strongly be in the Bucks’ interest to maximize their return now if he wants out. Right now, it feels like a Damian Lillard-esque situation where neither side wants to be the one to pull the rip cord. (Reality check: If you’re playing a video game in GM mode, you trade Antetokounmpo yesterday and rebuild with a bounty of picks and players. As ever, real life is more complicated.)
The key number here is $54.1 million. That’s what Antetokounmpo makes, and it’s a big number to fit into a cap sheet, especially for those teams already bound by one of the tax aprons. Additionally, the team that acquires him has to send out at least $43.3 million to legally obtain his contract, and possibly more if it’s past one of the cap aprons.
The flip side of this is, what if Antetokounmpo doesn’t try to force his way out by February, and the Bucks instead pivot to some kind of desperation make-Antetokounmpo-happy trade. Our Eric Nehm already outlined the few options facing the Bucks. The one thing going for them is that they’re $14 million from the tax line and can take back more salary than they send out. (Presumably the Bucks wouldn’t be crazy enough to trade their 2031 first-round pick — the only one they can move right now — but we can’t rule it out either.)
As a result, some kind of “bad salary for even worse salary” trade that also returns a helpful basketball player is probably what they would target, but the only two players who make enough money to make that work are Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis. Additionally, the incentives in Kuzma’s deal count against the tax aprons regardless of whether he achieves them, which could make him much less desirable to teams in that realm of the cap.
Finally, if you’re the Bucks and are resigned to trading Antetokounmpo, aren’t you trading Myles Turner too? How do we feel about a deal that sends Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, Johnny Furphy and two seconds to the Bucks and returns Turner to Indiana where he belongs? This is definitely the fake trade I’m rooting for the most.
OK, let’s move on. Of all the players who could potentially be in a trade package for Antetokounmpo, one of the most obvious has to be…
Jonathan Kuminga, SF/PF, Warriors
Is it too early to say the Warriors missed their moment? At almost every stage of the last five years, they’ve declined to move on from Kuminga in the hopes that he would either turn out to help them win or turn out to have more trade value later.
Instead, the opposite has happened. He makes $22.5 million and is collecting DNPs for a team that’s 13-14 through Monday. While some factors here make the story more complicated than my last sentence, the overall situation hasn’t exactly left the league’s other 29 teams thirsting to acquire him. Well, except the Kings, which should be another red flag.
Kuminga is shooting 48.4 percent on 2s, 32.0 percent from 3 and has a career low 11.2 PER. It’s year five, and the “How does he impact winning?” question still dogs him. Can he be more than an empty-calorie scorer? That said, on a different team, his shot creation alone could be a floor-raiser for second units. He’s still only 23, and his contract ($22.5 million this year, a team option for $24.3 million next year) should make it plausible to fit him into most salary structures … or to use as the centerpiece of an Antetokounmpo trade.
As the Warriors teeter while the top six teams in the Western Conference run away from them, one wonders if their late-stage Steph Curry Era hinges on bringing in yet another aging star, and if the relatively young Antetokounmpo (just 31) might be the elixir for a club whose three linchpins are 37, 36 and 35.
That takes us to the elephant in the room: Sure, Golden State could put three first-rounders and Kuminga into a Giannis trade. It could add one of Buddy Hield or Moses Moody, both of whom have been pushed to the fringes of the rotation. But the only way the Warriors are getting to a salary match, with their status above the first apron, is by aggregating Draymond Green with those other salaries. He makes $25.9 million and has a player option for $27.7 million next year.
So, the big question for the bigwigs by the Bay: If your team is 13-14 and you know Curry and Jimmy Butler might have an 18-month shelf life as difference-making players, isn’t it worth it to go chips-in on Antetokounmpo? Maybe they still would get outbid by a team like the Houston Rockets, but the Warriors have to at least discuss this.
LaMelo Ball, PG, Hornets
Don’t get your hopes up. Ball almost certainly makes too much money ($131 million for the three years after this one, with no options) for another team to commit draft capital to acquire him, at least until he proves himself either more reliable or more obviously committed to helping his team win.
My ideal Ball trade, which will never, ever happen in real life, is what I call the “Southeast Shuffle”: One where he, Ja Morant and Trae Young all exchange teams and try to restore their trade value in new settings.
My second-favorite Ball trade, though, actually might be a bit more realistic: Ball and Ryan Kalkbrenner to Sacramento for Domantas Sabonis and Devin Carter. To be clear to anyone out there who posts tiny clips of my columns for a living: I have no evidence whatsoever that anyone is talking about this. But it would be a hell of a splash trade at the deadline, and the salaries work.
All of the Kings’ men, including DeMar DeRozan, should be available. Sergio Estrada / Imagn Images
DeMar DeRozan, SF/PF, Kings
I mentioned Sabonis above, but he’s a hard guy to fit in most trade scenarios. With the team free-fallin’ worse than a Tom Petty cover band, all the Kings’ men are available. However, in terms of contract and suitability for a playoff team, DeRozan seems like the name to watch. He makes a digestible $24.8 million and has only $10 million guaranteed next year if things don’t work out. Thus, accommodating his salary doesn’t wreck an acquiring team’s books the way it does for Sabonis or Zach LaVine.
DeRozan would likely have to adapt to a sixth man role on a good team, but that floor-raising, bucket-getter role has always been the best fit for his skill set. Moving off DeRozan has value for the Kings in the offseason, too; with Sacramento already at next year’s tax line, the team will have all but boxed itself out of room to re-sign Keon Ellis unless it trades a salary (may I interest you in a lightly used Dennis Schröder?) or waive DeRozan after the season.
Ousmane Dieng, PF, Thunder; Jeremy Sochan, PF, Spurs
It’s the last chance for these teams to get value on 2022 lottery picks who haven’t totally busted, per se, but also haven’t been able to stay in the rotation mix as the rosters around them upgraded rapidly. The fact that San Antonio is playing 34-year-old Kelly Olynyk ahead of Sochan says all you need to know about the latter’s place in the Spurs’ hierarchy, while Dieng has five DNPs in the last eight games on a loaded Thunder squad.
Oklahoma City can play its hand two ways with Dieng, who makes $6.7 million and will be a restricted free agent after the season. With the Thunder about $1.5 million from the tax line, they could trade him for a second-round pick and a waiveable contract and have the roster space and wiggle room to either sign a vet from the buyout market or promote one of their two-ways. Alternatively, they could put in some of their own considerable draft capital to turn Dieng into a rotation-caliber vet. While they could trade themselves into the tax, they might cap themselves at $8 million in returning money and avoid starting the clock on what are likely hefty repeater penalties in future seasons with this roster.
As for the Spurs, they have more wiggle room below the tax and could take back a $12 million player for Sochan, especially a forward who can shoot. As with Oklahoma City, the Spurs also have a surfeit of future second-round picks to grease a deal. Sochan has also accomplished a bit more to date than Dieng and might be an interesting flier for a rebuilding team.
Anthony Davis, C, and Daniel Gafford, C, Mavericks
I cautioned you to follow the money above, and even though Mavs governor Patrick Dumont has more of it than most people, he still likely isn’t excited about paying nearly $50 million in tax and penalties for a team that seems lottery-bound.
Even if he didn’t mind, there’s always next year to consider, when the Mavs are in nearly the exact same situation and have basically zero ability to add to the roster because of the second apron.
Trading Davis’ $54 million salary could solve both problems, although, as with Antetokounmpo above, getting to a salary match is tricky for trading partners and might be more easily accomplished this summer. Moving off Davis would also gently push the Mavs into a soft tank in a season where they control their draft pick, something they don’t do any of the next four years.
It’s also hard to find a perfect fit for Davis given his money, position and age; most of the teams that could theoretically use him aren’t good enough to justify going even mildly “all-in” for him.
However, an easier swap could involve Gafford, a starting-caliber center signed to a reasonable deal through 2029 but one whose fit is clunky next to Davis and Dereck Lively II. (Lively, though out for the season following foot surgery, would appear to be the Mavs’ center of the future.)
CJ McCollum, PG, Wizards
McCollum and Khris Middleton are the two Washington veterans teams will have their eye on in the buyout market, but of the two, only McCollum has played well enough to have real value on the trade market. His $30.7 million expiring salary is a major stumbling block, but one can envision deals where teams looking to shed 2026-27 money pay the Wizards in draft capital to take on salary beyond this season, especially since Washington has more cap room (roughly $80 million) than it could possibly use next summer.
Deals with expiring money and draft picks are also possible, though seemingly less likely. One thought bubble, if the LA Clippers can get off the mat in the next eight weeks: Would they trade two seconds along with the expiring money of John Collins, Kobe Brown and Chris Paul, to get McCollum?
Speaking of which:
Chris Paul and half of his former teammates, Clippers
The Clippers’ situation is unfathomable — they’re 6-20 even though their three best players all have PERs in the 20s and have missed just 11 combined games between them. Yes, the rest of the rotation has been that bad. From players No. 4 through No. 15, the Clippers roster has been absolutely horrendous, in fact: The only BPM above minus-1.5 belongs to the injured Derrick Jones Jr.
Steve Ballmer isn’t crying poverty, but the repeater tax is threatening enough that the Clippers might try to shed $6.8 million in salary and get out of the tax of their own volition. That’s especially true in a “less now, more later” trade for future salary that helps load up their 2026-27 roster. Next year’s Clippers are nowhere near the tax line and will have money to spend regardless of whether James Harden opts out.
So, back to the exiled Paul — who still has a $2.3 million salary on the books — and the other vets in LA. Nic Batum, Bogdan Bogdanović and Brook Lopez all have team options for next year and are de facto expiring contracts, while Paul, John Collins and Kobe Brown have expiring deals. Combined, they make more than $60 million, meaning the Clippers have enough expiring money to support virtually any trade. As long as they take back less than about $40 million in 2026-27 money, they can keep Harden at roughly the same money he’s making, use their nontaxpayer midlevel exception and still remain below the first apron.
Bennedict Mathurin, SG, Pacers
The Pacers didn’t extend Mathurin before the season, and he hasn’t been good enough to make them regret that decision. However, with Indiana desperate for help at the center position — yes, it’s a “gap year,” but the Pacers have to get a real center by the start of next season — and Mathurin having the Pacers’ only significant expiring money, he obviously becomes the linchpin of any trade proposal that brings in frontcourt help.
I already tipped off my favorite fake trade above in the section on the Bucks, but Gafford in Dallas is also a direct salary match and acquiring him wouldn’t put the Pacers into the tax. Given the Mavs’ shortcomings on the perimeter, that small-for-big swap would seemingly work in both directions.
Gabe Vincent, PG, and Maxi Kleber, PF, Lakers
The Lakers can use Bird rights to keep LeBron James, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura this summer and could be players in free agency based on Reaves’ artificially low cap hold — especially if James either leaves after the season or returns for less money. The Lakers, much like Milwaukee above, can also put a lot more in draft capital into a trade after the season but can only offer one first-round pick right now.
That said, one roster approach to max out both their present and future would be to deal for 2026-27 salary at the deadline, when they can still add money to their book and apron rules won’t block them from sign-and-trades or other maneuvers.
Los Angeles must tread carefully because it’s so close to the first apron, where the Lakers are hard-capped, but adding $23 million in salary is possible if Vincent and Kleber are the outgoing salaries. They can net even bigger fish by including Jarred Vanderbilt’s $11.5 million, but his contract is likely problematic because it runs through 2027-28.
I’d probably file this one under “opportunism.” The Lakers don’t need to chase bad deals, but their expiring money and the one first could let them pounce if an optimal situation presents itself.
Jose Alvarado, PG, Pelicans
The Pels are a mess, but I’ve yet to hear a compelling reason why New Orleans should trade Herb Jones or Trey Murphy, other than that other teams are really hoping they do it.
Alvarado, on the other hand, has a player option this summer (on a salary of just $4.5 million, meaning he’ll likely trigger it) and is crowded out in a Pelicans backcourt that features Jeramiah Fears and Jordan Poole and still awaits the return of Dejounte Murray. The data says he’s a reliable backup point guard and his traits would likely play better on a winning team, plus they would inherit full Bird rights if they wanted him to stick around.
Minnesota’s Mike Conley is on an expiring contract. Jesse Johnson / Imagn Images
Mike Conley, PG, Timberwolves
The Wolves seem to be looking at various ways to upgrade a thin wing rotation. While it still seems more likely they stand pat, they only have a couple of ways to go if they want to make a move of any significance. The Wolves could take bigger, more ambitious swings that would involve the contracts of either Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid or both. Failing that, however, they may settle for smaller moves that would hinge on Conley’s expiring $10.7 million salary being part of the swap — especially with Bones Hyland’s recent play solidifying the backcourt depth situation.
Minnesota has no draft picks to trade as a sweetener but could use rookie center Joan Beringer as bait and return a player who makes $15 million or less.
Sam Hauser, PF, and Anfernee Simons, PG, Celtics
The Celtics have been better than expected without Jayson Tatum, but that still doesn’t change their financial reality — getting below the tax line this season gets them out from a bruising repeater tax and could help reset the clock entirely in future years depending on what other moves they make down the road.
Boston basically has two mechanisms to do this. The first is to trade Hauser and a couple of lightly used players on small contracts (say, Chris Boucher and Baylor Scheierman) to another team without taking back any salary; in this case, the bait would be Hauser and a contract that pays him an average of $11.7 million per year for the three seasons after this one. Importantly, Hauser’s salary fits into the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, meaning the league’s one team with cap space (Brooklyn) isn’t the only customer here.
That would be a more tempting package if Hauser were shooting better, but his struggles from deep (just 34.2 percent on 3s, and a 9.3 PER, in 2025-26) have put a lid on his value. On the other hand, if a rival team thinks it’s just random variance and believes more in his career 41.2 percent mark from 3, it might be thrilled at the price they could get.
The other way to pull this off is by trading Simons’ $27.7 million expiring contract for somebody who makes $15 million or less. This one is more likely to require the Nets’ help, and their price may be too rich for the Celtics’ liking, but it’s also possible to trade Simons for multiple smaller contracts and then split off the incoming money in smaller pieces to other destinations.
Speed round
• Philadelphia is $6.7 million into the tax and might not move all the way out but at the very least would save millions off its tax bill by dropping off little-used vet Eric Gordon on another team’s doorstep. The Sixers also need the roster spot to sign both Dom Barlow and Jabari Walker to full-time contracts after the two two-ways have become rotation regulars for Philly.
• New York looks like a contender to win the East, but because the Knicks sit mere pennies from the second-apron line, they can’t play in the buyout market unless they find a home for one of the contracts taking up space at the end of the roster. Most likely that’s second-year pro Pacôme Dadiet’s $2.9 million in salary, but it could also end up being Mohamed Diawara’s $1.2 million. New York still has multiple future seconds lying around to sweeten a deal for the receiving team.
• Orlando is $5.6 million over the tax line, and, even as a contender in the East, it might be tempting for the Magic to pay another team to take Tyus Jones’ $7 million deal and get them back under. Jones has been virtually invisible, with a 9.2 percent usage rate previously thought impossible for a point guard. It seemed telling that Orlando reached for rookie Jase Richardson in the fourth quarter of the NBA Cup semis rather than turning to Jones once Jalen Suggs went out.
• Phoenix is less than $275,000 from the tax line, a mere pittance but an expensive difference when factoring in the payout to teams that end up below that mark. As a result, expect a small move from the Suns in the absence of a larger trade. Little-used center Nick Richards makes $5 million and could be a candidate to move on, or Phoenix could pay another team to take Nigel Hayes-Davis’ $2.1 million deal off its hands. This would also make the Suns players in the buyout market.
• Denver will only go over the tax line if Cam Johnson hits unlikely incentives in his contract, but the Nuggets are so close that it shuts them out of the buyout market unless they can drop off the $2.2 million contracts of either Hunter Tyson or Jalen Pickett.
• Toronto is a million over the tax line, but the Raptors like most of their minimum guys. The most expedient exit for Toronto is likely a deal involving Ochai Agbaji, a useful player who makes $6.4 million but is on an expiring contract and unlikely to return next season. Failing that, moving the $1.96 million deals of Jonathan Mogbo or Jamison Battle would get them under.
• Cleveland has far and away the league’s highest payroll but sits eighth in the East at 15-12 and just lost at home to Charlotte. It’s still too early to panic, but the Cavs already have a frozen 2032 draft pick because they spent so much last year and are $22 million over this year’s second apron. If Operation PickThaw becomes a directive from ownership, keep an eye on underperforming contracts like those of Lonzo Ball ($10 million) and Dean Wade ($6.6 million), as well as the larger deals of De’Andre Hunter ($23.3 million) and Max Strus ($15.9 million), each of which has a year to run beyond this one.
By John Hollinger, via The Athletic