By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-12-02 04:08:58
随着球星们的伤病开始累积，一个有趣的趋势已然显现：一些球队在缺少建队基石的情况下，表现得就算没有更好，也至少不相上下。
现在，在我们像比尔·西蒙斯 (Bill Simmons) 那样高喊“尤因理论”之前，还是先冷静下来，看看这些小样本数据究竟说明了什么。
亚特兰大，你先来。
“冰杨”要融化了？
在特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 在阵时，老鹰队以2胜3负开局，而在他缺阵后，球队取得了11胜6负的战绩。对比本赛季特雷·杨缺阵时和上赛季他在场时的在场/离场数据（本赛季他在场样本太小），结果完全在预料之中：当他下场时，球队的进攻更差（特雷·杨在场时117.4，缺阵时116.2），但防守更好（在场时116.8，缺阵时112.6）。总的来说，没有他时老鹰的净效率值更高（+3.6 对比 +0.6），但这并未计入休赛期阵容升级为当前这支亚特兰大队带来的助益。
球队的打法也截然不同。上赛季，亚特兰大场均挡拆次数排名联盟第11，而本赛季则降至第26，这表明在没有特雷·杨的情况下，他们打得更具团队性。奇怪的是，在他缺阵期间，球队的场均传球和助攻数反而略有增加，老鹰目前场均传球297.8次、助攻30.8次，而上赛季这两个数据分别是281.8次和29.6次。虽然样本量不大，但数据表明，在“特雷快车道”停运后，亚特兰大正优先采用多点开花的进攻模式。再没有人会把球运到停滞，或是在一次进攻中持球长达20秒，这带来了更多的球的转移和更好的出手机会。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
关于杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 的飞跃，人们已经讨论了很多，他也确实当之无愧：他场均贡献23分10篮板7助攻，投篮三项命中率高达54/40/78，看起来就像一位最佳阵容候选人。然而，我认为尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 的崛起对亚特兰大的成功更为关键。
尽管NAW（亚历山大-沃克）场均助攻不足四次，但他负责持球过半场和组织进攻。他的组织能力算不上惊天动地，但也无需如此：老鹰拥有联盟中顶尖的无球跑动能力，NAW的工作只是在机会出现时，简单地将球传给空位的队友。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
NAW场均还能得到20分（他此前的生涯最高分是11分），同时防守表现出色。特雷·杨的缺阵让对手在防守端少了一个可以针对的明显软肋，从而让亚特兰大拥有了一个攻防更加均衡的阵容。
尽管如此，在看到特雷·杨如何重新融入亚特兰大的体系之前，我还不愿过早地对他下定论。即便有了NAW和约翰逊的爆发，亚特兰大在局面陷入困境时，仍然缺少一个能够凭借一己之力撕裂对手防线的超级核心。这正是特雷·杨的价值所在，如果他愿意更多地打无球，同时在球队进攻陷入停滞时——尤其是在季后赛中——回归他惯常的持球大核打法，那么这支球队的潜力才能被最大化。
特雷·杨的适配性问题尤其关键，因为若未能达成续约，老鹰可能会在明年夏天探索涉及他的交易。考虑到老鹰手握雄鹿和新奥尔良的2026年无保护首轮签，以及一大批富有吸引力的年轻球员，他们也可能成为追求扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 的一匹黑马——尽管这样的交易也需要送出特雷·杨或约翰逊中的一人。这只是一个不太可能实现的假设，但它仍然表明，为什么特雷·杨和老鹰队或许是今年最值得关注的球员与球队组合。
没有班凯罗，奥兰多反而更有“魔力”了？
奥兰多在保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 问题上的困境没有那么严峻，因为他比特雷·杨年轻得多，并且更契合他所在球队的体系。
即便如此，在班凯罗出战时，魔术的开局战绩为6胜6负，而在他缺阵后，球队取得了6胜2负的战绩，尽管净效率值相差不大：班凯罗在场时为+3.2，缺阵时为+4.0。他们打法上最大的不同在于德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 的角色得到了提升，在没有班凯罗的八场比赛里，他的使用率从22.5%（联盟前50%）增加到了26.1%（联盟前69%）。考虑到贝恩兼具组织者和射手的能力，看到奥兰多的进攻效率在班凯罗缺阵时段从116.2（联盟前51%）提升到118.8（联盟前69%）也就不足为奇了，因为魔术终于意识到，让贝恩参与进攻是一种必需，而非奢侈。
这并不意味着班凯罗对他们的进攻是负资产——恰恰相反。他仍然是奥兰多最具破坏力的球员，但问题在于他的使用方式。当班凯罗和贝恩运行双人配合，充分利用了后者的空间牵制力时，魔术队看起来最具威胁。而讽刺的是，本赛季的第一个回合恰恰是迄今为止他们之间最具创造性的战术配合。在班凯罗掩护后，贝恩的引力瞬间吸引了两名防守者，而班凯罗冲击篮筐的威胁迫使热火的大个子球员上前协防，从而送出了一个空接机会。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
而且，贝恩甚至不需要触球就能制造威胁。哪怕只是一个简单的艾弗森交叉切入，对手也会因忌惮他的投篮而阵型大乱，这也为其他球员创造了机会。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
当球和球员都停止移动时，奥兰多进攻中丑陋的一面就暴露出来了。这种情况在班凯罗在场时最常发生，因为教练组和其他球员过于迁就他，任由他出手如下面这样低效的长两分。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
本赛季，班凯罗的中距离命中率仅为43%，三分命中率仅为25%，导致其有效命中率低至糟糕的49.2%，在所有前锋中仅排在联盟后13%。更令人担忧的是，他40%的出手来自中距离（联盟前95%），这个比例只有像德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) 或克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 这样的中投之神才应该达到。
此外，魔术的任何进攻战术都很少有多于两名球员参与。前面展示的涉及贝恩的片段，是少数有三名或以上球员参与跑动的战例，因为他们大部分的回合要么是单打，要么是双人配合。即使在班凯罗缺阵时，情况也是如此，大多数进攻都是贝恩发起双人配合，而其他球员则静静地站在底角和禁区。考虑到球队的天赋水平，奥兰多的进攻体系创造力实在不足，导致球队的进攻表现未能达到其阵容实力的总和。
综合来看，奥兰多的问题更多出在战术体系而非球员配置上。通过贝恩来发动进攻，利用他的投篮威胁打开了球队的进攻空间，但如果魔术能多打一些同时涉及班凯罗和贝恩的战术，他们在班凯罗在场时可能会更加危险。教练组需要明白，让这两位球员协同作战才是球队发挥全部潜能的方式：班凯罗仍然是最重要的棋子，但贝恩是解锁一切的关键。希望在班凯罗回归后能看到这样的改变，但如果不能，那么关于贾马尔·莫斯利 (Jamahl Mosley) 的战术体系以及班凯罗的心态问题，恐怕就需要进行一些令人不快的谈话了。
本周，请务必看看Jeje的这篇关于马刺如何限制尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)的文章！他非常出色地剖析了圣安东尼奥为限制这位世界最佳球员所采用的策略。
感谢阅读！
所有数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: are the Magic and Hawks better without their stars?
Around the NBA: are the Magic and Hawks better without their stars?
With injuries starting to pile up for star players, an interesting trend has begun: teams have played just as well, if not better, without their franchise cornerstones.
Now, before we go full Bill Simmons and scream EWING THEORY, let’s take a step back and see what the small samples are telling us.
Atlanta, you first.
Is Ice Trae starting to melt?
After starting the season 2-3 with Trae in the lineup, the Hawks have gone 11-6 in his absence. The on/off numbers comparing Atlanta this season without Trae and Atlanta last year with him (the sample size for this year is too small) is exactly what you’d expect: when he sits, the team is worse on offense (117.4 with Trae, 116.2 without) but better on defense (116.8 with Trae, 112.6 without). Overall, the Hawks have a better net rating without him (+3.6 vs +0.6), but this doesn’t factor in the offseason upgrades that’s benefiting the current iteration of Atlanta.
The team’s style of play is different too. Atlanta has gone from running the 11th most pick-and-rolls per game last year to the 26th most this season, indicating that they’re playing a more egalitarian style sans Trae. Curiously, both their passes and assists per game have slightly increased in his absence, as the Hawks are currently averaging 297.8 passes and 30.8 assists vs 281.8 passes and 29.6 assists last season. It’s a small sample size, but the numbers suggest that Atlanta is prioritizing a multi-lane approach now that Express Lane Trae is out of commission. No one dribbles the air out of the ball or dominates the possession for 20s, and it’s led to more ball movement and better shots.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
Much has been made about Jalen Johnson’s leap, and rightfully so: he’s averaging 23/10/7 on 54/40/78 shooting and looks like an All-NBA candidate. However, I’d argue that Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s emergence has been even more instrumental to Atlanta’s success.
Even though NAW’s averaging fewer than four assists, he’s responsible for bringing the ball up and setting up the offense. His playmaking isn’t groundbreaking, but it doesn’t need to be: the Hawks have some of the best off-ball movement in the league, and NAW’s job is to simply get it to the open man when the opportunity arises.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
NAW’s also averaging 20 points (his previous career high was 11) while playing good defense, and the lack of an obvious defensive scab to pick at due to Trae’s absence has given Atlanta a much better two-way group.
Still, I’m not willing to bury Trae before seeing how he reintegrates into Atlanta’s scheme. Even with NAW and Johnson’s breakouts, Atlanta lacks a singular dynamo who can individually break down opposing defenses when the going gets tough. That’s what Trae is for, and this team can be maximized if he’s willing to play more off-ball while reverting to his usual heliocentric style when the offense bogs down — especially in the playoffs.
Trae’s fit is especially pertinent given the Hawks could explore trades involving him next summer due to the lack of an extension. Atlanta could also be a dark horse Giannis team given that they have both Milwaukee’s and New Orleans’ 2026 unprotected firsts along with a plethora of intriguing young players — although one of Trae/Johnson will need to be in such a deal too. It’s a hypothetical that’s unlikely to bear fruit, but it still shows why Trae and the Hawks are perhaps the most intriguing player/team combo to monitor this year.
Does Orlando have more Magic without Paolo?
Orlando’s conundrum with Paolo is less dire given that he’s much younger than Trae and fits into his team’s system.
Even so, the Magic have gone 6-2 without Paolo after starting 6-6 with him, although the net rating is similar: +3.2 with, +4.0 without. The biggest difference in their play has been an elevated role for Desmond Bane, whose usage has increased from 22.5% (50th percentile) to 26.1% (69th percentile) in the eight games without Paolo. Given Bane’s abilities as both a playmaker and shooter, it’s not surprising to see Orlando’s offensive rating go from 116.2 (51st percentile) to 118.8 (69th) in the non-Paolo minutes, as the Magic are finally realizing that involving Bane is a necessity rather than a luxury.
That doesn’t mean Paolo is a negative for their offense — quite the opposite, in fact. He is still Orlando’s most devastating player, but the way he’s been used has been the issue. The Magic looked the most dangerous when Paolo and Bane ran two-man action that utilized the latter’s spacing, and the first play of the season has ironically been the most creative set involving them thus far. Bane’s gravity sucks in both defenders momentarily following a Paolo pick, and the latter’s downhill presence forces Miami’s big to step up and concede an open lob.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
Bane doesn’t even have to touch the ball to be dangerous, either. Even a simple Iverson cut scrambles opposing defenses due to their fear of his shot, and this opens up looks for other players as well.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
The ugly side of Orlando’s offense is revealed when the ball and players stop moving. This happens most often with Paolo in the lineup since the coaching staff and other players are too deferential, letting him take inefficient long twos like the one below.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) December 2, 2025
On the season, Paolo is making just 43% of his mid-rangers and 25% of his threes, resulting in an abysmal 49.2% efficient field goal percentage that ranks in the 13th percentile among all forwards. What’s more concerning is that 40% of his shots have come from the mid-range (95th percentile), a number that should only be touched by mid-range gods like DeMar DeRozan or Chris Paul.
Moreover, the Magic seldom involve more than two players on any offensive set. The previous clips with Bane are rare examples of actions that have three or more players moving, as the majority of their possessions are either isolations or two-man actions. This has been the case even without Paolo in the lineup, with most possessions involving Bane running two-man action while the other players stand stationary in the corners and paint. Orlando’s attack is simply not creative enough given the talent on the roster, and the result is an offense that plays at a level below the sum of their parts.
Considering everything, the issue in Orlando lies more with their scheme rather than the personnel. Playing through Bane has opened up their offense due to his shooting threat, but the Magic could be even more dangerous with Paolo in the lineup as long as they run actions involving both players. The coaching staff needs to understand that playing them synergistically is how they can reach their full potential: Paolo is still the most important piece, but Bane is the key that unlocks everything. Hopefully that happens when Paolo returns, but if it doesn’t, some uncomfortable conversations will need to be had about Jamahl Mosley’s scheme and Paolo’s mentality.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on how the Spurs slowed down Nikola Jokic! He does a great job of breaking down the strategies San Antonio employed to limit the world’s best player.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock