By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-11-18 02:30:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
NBA新赛季已进行一个月，我们仍处在赛季初的小样本观察阶段，但这并不妨碍我们去甄别哪些趋势能够持续，哪些只是昙花一现。通过深入研究各项深层数据指标，我们可以更好地预测本赛季的走向，而这正是我们今天要做的。
让我们从积极的方面开始。
那些将持续存在的趋势
文班 – 公认的联盟第五人
赛季前五场比赛，文班场均贡献30.2分/14.6篮板/3.4助攻，外加4.8次盖帽，投篮命中率、三分命中率和罚球命中率分别为56.3/31.3/79.2。篮球界几乎要将他加冕为历史最佳球员（GOAT）。然而，在接下来的四场比赛中，他的数据降至17分/10.7篮板/3助攻和2.5次盖帽，于是波尔·波尔 (Bol Bol) 突然之间又比他更强了。文班当前的真实水平可能介于两者之间，这体现在他赛季至今场均26.2分/12.9篮板/4助攻和4.8次盖帽，三项命中率为50.2/34.5/85.7的数据上。他毫无争议地是世界最佳防守球员，当他在场时，马刺的防守效率为106.5，而当他下场时，这一数字飙升至128.5——这差距相当于联盟第二好的防守和最差防守之间的鸿沟。在进攻端，很明显文班的球场空间感和时机把握仍有巨大的提升空间，但他在仅仅触及到潜力皮毛的情况下，就已经打出了历史级的数据，这进一步证明了他拥有NBA历史最高的天赋上限。这位法国天才目前还未达到约基奇/字母哥/东契奇/SGA的水平，但考虑到他在新秀赛季和二年级赛季都实现了赛季中的飞跃式进步，他完全有可能在赛季末达到那个高度。所以，尽管文班还不能像《黑客帝国》里的尼奥那样挡住子弹，但毫无疑问，他正开始相信。
底特律的季初强势
目前，活塞队正处在一波9连胜之中，以11胜2负的战绩傲视东部。他们令人想起了当年以强悍身体对抗著称的“坏孩子军团”，通过抢下34.1%的进攻篮板（联盟第3）在内线摧城拔寨，同时将对手的篮下命中率限制在仅59.2%（联盟第2）。这两项数据是他们相比上赛季仅有的异常值，但即便未来有所回落，幅度也可能微乎其微。杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 在攻防两端都取得了飞跃，而健康的奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 则是释放活塞全部潜能的关键。这位三年级的后卫/侧翼/大个子球员除了投篮，几乎无所不能。他已是联盟中最全能的防守者之一，既能防守外线明星，也能提供一定的护筐能力。
奥萨尔·汤普森本赛季的防守堪称精英级别
活塞队战绩11胜2负
最佳防守一阵正在加载中？
pic.twitter.com/UjH4UtM6hV
— NBACentral (@ TheDunkCentral) 2025年11月15日
在进攻端，奥萨尔作为第二持球点，竟然还能场均抢下两个进攻篮板。当他在场时，活塞每百回合能多得4.7分。随着凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 看起来像一位MVP竞争者，以及杰登·艾维 (Jaden Ivey) 仍在阵中蓄势待发，底特律本赛季有望再次将胜场数提升两位数，并冲击50胜。
休斯顿的进攻
任何“预测”休斯顿拥有联盟最佳进攻的人，都像勒布朗一样在撒谎。他们去年的进攻效率（116.3）仅排在联盟第12位，即便引进了凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，也不应该带来如此巨大的飞跃。目前来看，确实存在一些潜在的警示信号，比如他们高达42.5%的三分命中率，这主要得益于申京（46%）和谢泼德（48%）像《空中大灌篮》里的怪物奇兵一样偷走了克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson) 的投篮能力。然而，火箭只有30.9%的出手来自三分线外，这一比例比联盟倒数第二的球队还低了1.2%。换句话说，即使他们的三分命中率不可避免地下降，休斯顿的进攻也不会遭受重创，因为三分是他们最不依赖的得分方式。
相反，他们的策略是赢得球权战。火箭的巨型阵容帮助他们创造了高达*40.4%*的惊人进攻篮板率。为了让大家更好地理解这个数字，休斯顿与排名第二的犹他爵士（35%进攻篮板率）之间的差距，等同于爵士与排名第16的新奥尔良鹈鹕（29.6%）之间的差距。下面的图表清晰地展示了他们的篮板能力是多么地出类拔萃。
过去10个赛季每支球队的赛季表现混乱图，绘制维度如下……
进攻篮板率 %
进攻效率
这支火箭队构造不同（点击图表右上角查看详情） pic.twitter.com/dJ4Llnwutj
— Steven Adams Stats (@ funakistats) 2025年11月16日
火箭排名联盟第10的半场进攻效率（99.6）完全符合预期，而他们整体的进攻表现则是由大量的二次进攻得分支撑起来的。此外，杜兰特和阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 的投篮命中率目前也低于其生涯平均水平，因此休斯顿进攻的某些方面实际上还有提升空间。我并不期望他们能继续保持历史级的得分效率，但只要火箭不改变他们依赖进攻篮板的打法，就没有理由认为休斯顿的进攻不会保持在精英级别。
那些无法持久的现象
掘金队的防守
丹佛掘金队目前拥有联盟第三好的防守（防守效率110.7），而在约基奇时代，他们的防守历来只处于平均水平。在过去15年里，他们的防守仅有一次进入联盟前十（2023-24赛季，第9），而在他们2023年夺冠的赛季，防守排名也仅为第17位。本赛季至今唯一的变化是对手的三分命中率，各队球员在对阵丹佛时三分命中率仅为32.5%——这是全联盟第二低的数字。作为参考，目前联盟的平均三分命中率为36%，考虑到球队通常很难控制对手的外线手感，我们没有理由相信球员们会持续在面对掘金时投得如此之差。丹佛在休赛期也没有进行任何重大的防守升级，因此，可以预见他们未来将回归一支防守中游的球队，如果一切顺利，或许能在赛季末有望冲击联盟前十的防守效率。
围绕库珀·弗拉格和本届新秀的舆论
我最不喜欢的NBA话题就是关于新秀的讨论，尤其是在每个赛季的初期。仅仅几场比赛过后，许多人就准备好宣布某位球员锁定了名人堂席位，而另一位则是水货。例如，VJ·埃奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 在前五场比赛中场均得到21.2分，投篮命中率49.4%，一些人便将他比作德维恩·韦德 (Dwyane Wade)，并声称他很快将成为全明星赛的常客。
好吧，从那以后，他场均只能得到11.6分，命中率仅为33%，所以我想他现在是个水货了吧。
我这番话并非针对埃奇库姆——我相信他会成为一名非常优秀的球员——而是为了说明，基于小样本数据对新秀的评价是多么荒谬。通常情况下，被寄予厚望的新秀往往会受到最严苛的审视，今年也不例外。许多球迷似乎对库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 至今的表现感到失望，却没考虑到他一直被迫在全联盟最混乱的球队里打着不熟悉的位置。不知何故，这种情绪也蔓延到了球队高管和球探中……
一些NBA高管表示，如果库珀·弗拉格参加2026年选秀，他的顺位可能会跌至第六位
“大学篮球赛季才刚刚开始。但这届选秀的顶尖球员感觉比预期的还要强。到六月时，考虑到……情况可能会更好 pic.twitter.com/G4GJGCAhwQ
— NBACentral (@ TheDunkCentral) 2025年11月14日
说实话，考虑到弗拉格所处的恶劣环境，他能打出这样的数据并产生影响力已经令人印象深刻。弗拉格至今缺乏一场爆炸性的个人表现，但这并不能改变他是过去15年来四大顶尖新秀之一的事实，而另外三位（AD、锡安和文班）都在他们的二年级赛季入选了全明星。如果弗拉格下赛季不能毫无悬念地拿下年度最佳新秀，并确立自己全明星级别球员的地位，我才会感到震惊。
本周，请务必阅读斯蒂芬·迈克尔 (Stephen Michael) 的文章，了解文班如何率领马刺战胜公牛！斯蒂芬出色地剖析了文班在关键时刻如何调整状态、扭转局势并统治比赛的具体回合和战术。
我们将像以前一样，每周都推出这个专栏，敬请期待后续内容。一如既往，感谢您的阅读！
所有数据来源于 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: what’s real and what’s not a month into the season
Around the NBA: what’s real and what’s not a month into the season
The NBA is still operating with small sample size theatre a month into the season, but that doesn’t mean we can’t discern between the trends that are sustainable and the ones that are not. Taking a closer look at the underlying metrics can help us predict how the season will play out, which is what we’re doing today.
Let’s start with the positives.
Things that are here to stay
Wemby – consensus 5th best player in the league
Wemby averaged 30.2/14.6/3.4 with 4.8 blocks on 56.3/31.3/79.2 splits in the first five games of the season, and the basketball world was ready to anoint him as the GOAT. Then, he put up 17/10.7/3 with 2.5 blocks in the next four games, and Bol Bol was suddenly better than him again. Wemby’s true current level is likely somewhere in between, which is reflected in his overall averages of 26.2/12.9/4 and 4.8 blocks on 50.2/34.5/85.7 shooting. He’s inarguably the best defensive player in the world, as the Spurs go from sporting a 106.5 DRTG with him playing to 128.5 when he sits — the difference between having the league’s second-best defense to having the worst. Offensively, it’s clear that Wemby’s court mapping and timing still have lots of room for improvement, but the fact that he’s already putting up historic numbers while just scratching the surface of his potential is further proof that he has the highest ceiling in NBA history. The Frenchman isn’t on the level of Jokic/Giannis/Luka/SGA right now, but could end up there at year-end given that he’s made in-season leaps in both his rookie and sophomore campaigns. So while Wemby can’t stop bullets like Neo just yet, there’s no doubt that he’s beginning to believe.
Detroit’s early-season success
Currently on a 9-game winning streak, the Pistons have stormed out to an 11-2 record and sit first in the East. Reminiscent of the Bad Boys with their bruising physicality, Detroit has been beating teams up in the interior by grabbing 34.1% of offensive rebounds (3rd) while holding opponents to just 59.2% shooting around the rim (2nd). Those are the only two stats that are outliers compared to last season, but even if they see a drop-off there, it will likely be minimal. Jalen Duren has taken a leap on both ends, and a healthy Ausar Thompson has been the key to unlocking the Pistons’ full potential. The third-year guard/wing/big can do literally everything on the court but shoot, as he’s already one of the league’s most versatile defenders who guards perimeter stars while also offering some rim protection.
Ausar Thompson has been ELITE defensively this season
The Pistons are 11-2
All-Defensive First Team loading?
— NBACentral (@ TheDunkCentral) November 15, 2025
Offensively, Ausar is a secondary ballhandler who somehow averages two offensive rebounds a game as well, and the Pistons are 4.7 points per 100 possessions better when Ausar’s in the game. With Cade looking like an MVP contender and Jaden Ivey still waiting in the wings, Detroit could win 50 games and increase their win total by double digits again.
Houston’s offense
Anyone who “predicted” Houston having the best offense in the league is lying like LeBron. They were 12th in ORTG last year (116.3), and even the addition of Kevin Durant shouldn’t have catapulted them this much. There are a few underlying red flags currently, like their 42.5% shooting from three, largely on the backs of Sengun (46%) and Sheppard (48%) stealing Klay Thompson’s powers like the Monstars. However, only 30.9% of the Rockets’ shots are from deep, which is the league’s lowest number by 1.2%. In other words, even when their conversion rate inevitably drops, Houston’s offense won’t suffer dramatically because that’s their least reliant shot.
Instead, their strategy is winning the possession game, as the Rockets’ gigantic lineup is helping them generate an absurd 40.4% offensive rebounding rate. To put that in perspective, the difference between Houston and #2-ranked Utah (35% ORB%) is the same as Utah and #16-ranked New Orleans (29.6%), and the graph below shows how much of an outlier their rebounding really is.
Chaos chart of every team’s season over the last 10 seasons plotted by…
This Rockets team is built different (tap graph to see top right) pic.twitter.com/dJ4Llnwutj
— Steven Adams Stats (@ funakistats) November 16, 2025
The Rockets’ 10th-ranked half-court offense (99.6 ORTG) is right in line with what’s expected, and their overall offense is being propped up by generating an insane amount of second-chance points. Moreover, Durant and Amen Thompson are also shooting below their career norms, so some aspects of Houston’s offense will actually improve. I don’t expect them to continue scoring at an all-time level, but assuming the Rockets don’t change their ORB-reliant style, there’s no reason why Houston’s offense won’t stay elite.
Things that won’t last
The Nuggets’ defense
Denver currently has the third-best defense (110.7 DRTG) in the league when they’ve historically been average on that end in the Jokic era. They’ve only been top 10 once on defense over the past 15 years (2023-24, 9th), and the Nuggets were ranked 17th during their 2023 championship campaign. The only thing that’s changed so far this season is their opponents’ shooting percentage from three, as players are only making 32.5% of their triples against Denver — the 2nd lowest amongst all teams in the league. For reference, the league average is currently 36%, and given that teams generally don’t have much control in how opponents shoot from outside, there’s no reason to believe that players will continue shooting so poorly against the Nuggets. Denver also didn’t make any big defensive upgrades in the offseason, so expect Denver to be an average defensive team moving forward, with the potential to flirt with a top-10 DRTG by year end if everything breaks right.
The rhetoric surrounding Cooper Flagg and the rookie class
My least favorite NBA topic is the one surrounding rookies, especially at the start of each season. After a handful of games, many people are ready to declare one player a hall of fame lock, while another a bust. For example, some compared VJ Edgecombe to DWade after he averaged 21.2 points on 49.4% shooting in his first five games and claimed that he would be a fixture at All-Star games soon.
Well, he’s put up 11.6 points on 33% shooting since then, so I guess he’s a bust.
This is not an attack against Edgecombe — who I believe will be a very good player — but rather an illustration of how ridiculous the rhetoric surrounding rookies with small sample sizes can be. Oftentimes, the rookies who get it worst are the ones with the most hype, and that’s been the case this year too. Many fans seem to view Flagg as a disappointment thus far, without considering that he’s played out of position on the most dysfunctional team in the entire league. Somehow, that sentiment has spread to executives and scouts too…
Some NBA executives say Cooper Flagg could go as low as the sixth pick if he were to enter the 2026 draft
“It’s early in the college basketball season. But already the draft class is feeling even stronger at the top than anticipated. By June, it might be even better given the… pic.twitter.com/G4GJGCAhwQ
— NBACentral (@ TheDunkCentral) November 14, 2025
If anything, it’s impressive that Flagg’s putting up numbers and making an impact given the toxic environment he’s in. Flagg’s lack of a singular explosive performance thus far doesn’t change the fact that he’s one of the four best prospects of the last 15 years, and the other three players (AD, Zion, and Wemby) were all All-Stars in their sophomore seasons. I’d be shocked if Flagg doesn’t run away with Rookie of the Year and establish himself as an All-Star-level player by next season.
This week, please check out Stephen Michael’s article on how Wemby fuelled the Spurs’ victory against the Bulls! Stephen did a great job of highlighting specific plays and adjustments Wemby used to flip the switch and dominate down the stretch.
We’ll be bringing this back as a weekly column like before, so stay tuned for them moving forward. Thanks for reading as always!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock