By Tim Bontemps, Brian Windhorst | ESPN, 2025-11-14 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
今年二月，尼科·哈里森 (Nico Harrison) 策划了联盟历史上最令人震惊的交易之一，将卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Dončić) 从达拉斯独行侠队送往洛杉矶湖人队。对于他为此给出的理由，无论是联盟内部还是外部，相信的人寥寥无几。
同样，当达拉斯上赛季的糟糕结局延续到本赛季时，也没有多少人认为哈里森应该继续担任独行侠的总经理——在周一晚主场对阵密尔沃基雄鹿队的一场分差在毫厘之间的比赛中，独行侠球员罚球时甚至响起了“炒掉尼科！”的嘘声。
因此，本着这种精神，我们决定询问联盟高管和球探们，对于NBA开赛初期一些最具影响力的趋势，他们是否买账。我们将从独行侠这支深陷泥潭的球队开始，然后探讨湖人和圣安东尼奥马刺的火热开局，卫冕冠军俄克拉荷马城雷霆冲击70胜的可能性，以及突然之间竞争激烈的年度最佳新秀之争的未来走向。
快速跳转至各路情报：
挣扎的独行侠是否必须交易AD？
魔术队能否解决他们的进攻问题？
湖人与马刺能否保持火热状态？
快船队会继续显得如此老迈吗？
雷霆队能否斩获70+胜场？
年度最佳新秀之争会保持开放吗？
你认为达拉斯会一直这么糟糕吗？
蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)： 本周，在哈里森被解雇后，我与NBA圈内的消息人士进行了交流，大家几乎普遍认为，独行侠不可能一直像他们3胜9负的战绩和场均净负6.5分所显示的那样糟糕。但这是否意味着联盟内部人士预测他们能打进季后赛呢？
并非如此。
“我仍然认为，如果所有人都保持健康，他们可以打得很好，”一位西部某球队高管告诉ESPN。“但你不能指望这一点。”
即便全员健康——达拉斯目前远非如此，安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 仅出战五场，而凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 在三月份遭遇前十字韧带撕裂后仍在休战——球队阵容中的缺陷依然存在。丹吉洛·拉塞尔 (D’Angelo Russell) 是目前在队名单上唯一一位经过验证的控球后卫，但他已被主教练杰森·基德 (Jason Kidd) 彻底边缘化，取而代之的是拿着部分保障底薪合同的布兰登·威廉姆斯 (Brandon Williams)。
尽管威廉姆斯偶有闪光表现——他在周三输给菲尼克斯太阳队的比赛中得到17分和9次助攻——但达拉斯缺乏控球能力以及阵容整体失衡的问题是无法忽视的。
“除非他们拥有一名可靠的控球后卫，否则他们会一直挣扎，”一位西部球探表示。
随着独行侠成为本周联盟最大的话题，讨论很快转向了那个悬在任何接替哈里森成为球队首席高管的人头上的问题：距离二月份的交易截止日不到三个月，戴维斯和欧文的未来将何去何从？
我所采访的消息人士认为，独行侠的最优策略是送走至少戴维斯，甚至是两位球星。这些举动将有助于最大化他们在星光璀璨的2026年选秀大会上的首轮签价值——这是达拉斯在本个十年内唯一能控制的选秀权——从而围绕2025年状元秀库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 重塑球队。
“绝对是，”一位东部球队高管在被问及交易这两位老将球星是否是达拉斯的正确道路时说道。
布莱恩·文霍斯特 (Brian Windhorst)： 老实说，本周与联盟高管们的讨论，出人意料地并未集中在独行侠是否应该交易戴维斯上——大家似乎已经达成共识，这或许是正确的策略，尽管这是又一个难以向球迷交代的痛苦变动。一支围绕欧文和戴维斯建队的球队颇具竞争力，至少想看看完整阵容的表现也并非不合理；随着欧文的康复进展顺利，这应该是一个可以考虑的选项。
但是，不，讨论的焦点在于，独行侠在交易戴维斯时能否获得适当的价值。
“我刚刚查了一下，这样如果我老板问我，我就能告诉他：AD（戴维斯）明年三月就33岁了，到明年夏天，他可能会想要一份续约合同，到他37岁时，年薪可能会高达7000万美元，”一位总经理说。
“他是一名伟大的球员，毋庸置疑。但当你考虑到他这个年龄和他的伤病史，交易得到他的同时也意味着要承担续约带来的压力。这也是一个影响因素。”
提及戴维斯的伤病史已是老生常谈。当他健康时，他在攻防两端都是能够改变季后赛系列赛走向的球员。湖人队在2019年，即他们在隔离园区夺冠之前得到他，改变了联盟的势力格局。如果独行侠得出结论，他们需要围绕弗拉格重新调整他们的时间线——尽管各队管理层的策略部门可能如此预测，但目前这仍是一个假设——那么他有可能再次改变联盟的势力格局。
但本周交流得出的结论是，达拉斯能否得到那种让交易他成为一个无需思考的决定的报价。
“有一件事我可以绝对肯定地告诉你，”一位资深高管说。“如果达拉斯决定交易AD，他们绝对得不到当年湖人交易他时换回的那种回报。”
这还用说。
邦坦普斯： 然而，送走戴维斯和欧文有一个被低估的好处，那就是让达拉斯摆脱奢侈税。
根据ESPN的鲍比·马克斯 (Bobby Marks) 的数据，以目前的阵容，独行侠需要支付约3200万美元的奢侈税，本赛季他们已经超过奢侈税起征点约1600万美元。对于一支毫无前途的球队来说，这样的开销极难自圆其说。
在交易截止日前送走他们的两位球星，将使达拉斯有可能避开奢侈税，重置其发展时间线，并获得未来的选秀权和球员，为这支老化的阵容补充年轻血液，与他们的天才新秀并肩作战。
你认为奥兰多已经解决了他们的进攻问题吗？
文霍斯特： 魔术队在过去七场比赛中赢了五场，进攻端手感火热，在此期间的进攻效率排在联盟前十。（不过，头号得分手保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 因腹股沟受伤被列入每日观察名单，如果这位球星被迫缺席较长时间，可能会导致数据回调。）
奥兰多上赛季的比赛节奏排名联盟垫底，但休赛期在管理层主导的教练组调整中聘请的助理教练乔·普伦蒂 (Joe Prunty) 被引入，旨在提升这些数据。魔术队现在的比赛节奏排在联盟中游，球探们报告称，主教练贾马尔·莫斯利 (Jamahl Mosley) 叫的战术明显减少，鼓励球队采用更快的阅读-反应体系。
话虽如此……
“有时候当他们进攻不顺时，他们会垂头丧气，节奏也会慢下来，”一位东部教练说。“我以前见过这种情况——这是一支在进攻端对自己还没有信心的球队的产物。”
邦坦普斯： 周三晚在麦迪逊广场花园击败纽约尼克斯队后，魔术队的战绩回到了五成，进攻效率也升至NBA第18位。这个排名看起来似乎不怎么样，但请看这个绝对令人难以置信的数据：
魔术队上一次赛季结束时进攻效率不排在联盟后十名，还要追溯到遥远的2011-12赛季，当时德怀特·霍华德 (Dwight Howard) 仍在魔术队效力，斯坦·范甘迪 (Stan Van Gundy) 担任主教练。
本赛季，在奥兰多通过一笔重磅交易从孟菲斯灰熊队得到德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 后，这个耻辱性的纪录本应被甩在身后。然而，魔术队在进攻端似乎依然深陷泥潭。
“他们不应该这么差，”一位西部球探说。“但我也看不出任何理由去相信情况会有所改观。”
持续的进攻挣扎让人们的目光聚焦在莫斯利和班凯罗身上。莫斯利已多次证明他有能力用这套阵容打造出一支顶级的防守队伍，而班凯罗则持续打出亮眼的个人数据，但这些数据尚未转化为球队整体的进攻成功。
“情况总得有所好转，但核心阵容不会变，”一位西部高管说。“贝恩最终会适应的。但你队里仍然有一位球权集中、单打型的球星保罗，这让人很难联想到球的转移、球员的跑动和创造空位投篮机会。”
“场面实在是不怎么好看。”
你认为马刺和湖人是西部的四强种子吗？
邦坦普斯： 对这个问题的反应五花八门，但这并非因为这两支西部竞争者的个人实力。圣安东尼奥和洛杉矶的开季表现都受到了赞扬，但尽管许多联盟内部人士看好马刺和湖人能以西部前四的身份结束赛季，但大量的疑虑集中在他们前进道路上那些强大的竞争对手。
“俄克拉荷马城、休斯顿和丹佛都非常强，”一位西部高管说。“只剩下一个位置了，而你还没把他们或者明尼苏达算进去。”
另一位西部高管列举了这六支球队，并补充说，虽然他不确定湖人或马刺能否保持在前四，但很明显，在西部争夺附加赛圈以上位置（前六名）的竞赛中，这两支球队都已经超越了洛杉矶快船和金州勇士。
普遍的看法是，在这两支球队中，湖人队有更强的后劲。勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的最终回归，加上东契奇和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 的火热表现，只会增加他们的机会。
对于马刺队的前景，意见则不一。
“我选马刺，因为文班就是那么出色，”一位东部球探说。
“我赌马刺会掉队，”一位西部球探说。“如果维克托（文班亚马）能打82场比赛，我会感到震惊。他的身体构造就不是为那个设计的。”
文霍斯特： 詹姆斯即将回归是一个相当重要的因素。毕竟，他上赛季入选了NBA最佳阵容二队，而且他已经开始随湖人队的G联赛球队进行训练。球队的上限绝对可以被提升……也许吧。
“在我能看到勒布朗上场比赛，观察他的移动和状态之前，别问我关于湖人的问题，”一位东部高管说。“他不仅在处理坐骨神经痛，上赛季末他的膝盖也受伤了，这肯定影响了他的训练计划。他以前从未在经历这样的伤病后开启一个新赛季。”
“我看了一下数据，他们现在的防守效率排在联盟后十，净效率也排在后十，而且他们的三分命中数是联盟第三少的，”一位球探说。“这些都不是好的基本面数据。”
然而，可以肯定的是：一支拥有东契奇、詹姆斯和里夫斯的球队，在任何一个晚上都可能击败任何对手。这很危险。但它能在季后赛系列赛中击败任何对手四次吗？让我们拭目以待，但确实有理由保持乐观。
除非你拿他们和雷霆队比较。
你认为快船会继续显得如此老迈吗？
文霍斯特： 快船队在NBA历史上平均年龄最大的时候，偏偏选错了时机。本赛季初期，联盟的比赛节奏超级快。去年，有12支球队场均回合数超过100。现在，这个数字是25支，这或许是上赛季印第安纳步行者队意外闯入总决赛后，各队纷纷效仿其快速打法的结果。
NBA的趋势是追求速度，不仅是在转换进攻中，在半场阵地战中也是如此。快船队在比赛节奏和快攻得分上都排名垫底，他们根本跟不上。
“他们移动太慢了，当他们失误或被对手打出快速转换时，他们根本无法回防，”一位前瞻球探说。
快船队已经失去了上赛季那支联盟排名前三的防守铁闸的影子。他们还在处理将后卫诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 交易到迈阿密热火队的后续影响——在选择不向他提供一份丰厚的续约合同后，他在场上和更衣室都留下了空缺。
在布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal) 因臀部伤势赛季报销，以及球队整体年龄成为对手攻击的靶子之后，主教练泰伦·卢 (Tyronn Lue) 本周宣布，他将重点使用少数几位年轻的角色球员，如卡姆·克里斯蒂 (Cam Christie)、科比·桑德斯 (Kobe Sanders) 和乔丹·米勒 (Jordan Miller)。
潜台词是：快船队从布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez)、尼古拉斯·巴图姆 (Nicolas Batum) 或博格丹·博格达诺维奇 (Bogdan Bogdanovic) 那里得到的贡献寥寥无几，而克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 更是职业生涯首次完全掉出轮换阵容。这四名球员的平均年龄是37岁——这一点已经显露无遗，而且是同时显现。
“球队不会突然开始同时使用一群年轻球员，并指望这能带领他们走向胜利，”一位竞争对手球队的高管说。“但在这种情况下，也许这会帮助到他们。”
邦坦普斯： 只有一个问题（下文会详述）得到了更普遍、更直接的反应：赛季开始还不到一个月，快船队的前景已是一片黯淡。
“他们完蛋了，”一位东部高管在谈到洛杉矶在本赛季3胜8负开局后的机会时说道。
比尔的赛季报销对情况没有帮助，但这远非困扰这支球队的唯一问题。
“除非你能告诉我哪里有不老泉，否则我看不到（翻身的路），”一位西部球探说。“科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 在他上场时看起来不错。但你不能依赖他。”
文霍斯特： 而且伦纳德的情况似乎正在恶化。球队总裁劳伦斯·弗兰克 (Lawrence Frank) 周三透露，伦纳德不仅因脚踝扭伤缺阵，还遭遇了“严重”的脚部扭伤和炎症。
赛季初围绕快船队的许多兴奋感，源于伦纳德在上赛季末和训练营中看起来的健康状态。不幸的是，伦纳德已经面临长期缺阵，而快船队在他缺席的情况下正在下沉。快船队现在将开启一段七连客之旅。（我们提醒读者，雷霆队拥有快船队在六月选秀大会上的首轮签。）
你认为雷霆会赢得70+场比赛吗？
邦坦普斯： 唯一一个比快船队前景得到更明确答案的问题？就是雷霆队的问题。此前，俄克拉荷马城在本周连续两晚摧毁了勇士和湖人，而他们当时还缺少了杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和吕冈茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort) 等球员。
“他们也许能赢80场，”一位西部球探说。
或许那个目标有点太高了，但是雷霆队——上赛季以68胜的战绩夺得总冠军——能否成为NBA历史上第三支达到70胜的球队？
“唯一的问题，”一位东部球探说，“是他们想不想。”
前一个观点引发了联盟内部人士最热烈的讨论。毫无疑问，雷霆队——他们每百回合净胜对手15.6分，这将是一个打破历史纪录的净胜分——有能力加入1995-96赛季的芝加哥公牛队（72胜）和2015-16赛季的勇士队（73胜）的行列。
不确定的是，如果他们在赛季末真的触及到那个里程碑，他们是否会真正去追求它。
文霍斯特： 自2024-25赛季开始以来，雷霆队的战绩是80胜15负。胜率高达84%。要在NBA赢得70场比赛，你需要赢得85%的比赛。除了这个小小的数学课，重点是：雷霆队打出70胜球队级别的表现已经很长时间了。
“他们拥有足够的深度，即使他们不想，也可能赢得70场比赛，”一位东部球探说。“他们的第二阵容在大多数球队都能打上首发。他们的第三阵容在大多数球队也都能进入轮换。”
周三晚击败湖人后，入选NBA最佳阵容的侧翼球员杰伦·威廉姆斯在ESPN的马莉卡·安德鲁斯 (Malika Andrews) 对谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的赛后场边采访中探出头来，开玩笑地提醒大家他还在NBA，因为他本赛季还没上过场。
那是一个有趣的时刻，但对联盟其他球队来说，这可不是什么好笑的事。
你认为年度最佳新秀之争会保持开放吗？
邦坦普斯： 弗拉格——赛季前赢得该奖项的最大热门——在独行侠队的悲惨处境中，实际上开启了一个强劲的新秀赛季。他在所有新秀的得分、篮板、助攻、抢断和盖帽榜上都排名前五，而这一切都是在他几周后才满19岁、并且在一支配置蹩脚的阵容中错位打控球后卫的情况下完成的。
这就是为什么一位东部高管否定了这场竞争是开放的说法。“库珀会毫无悬念地拿下该奖项。这届新秀很出色，但随着赛季的进行，库珀会证明自己的实力，”他们说。
然而，在与联盟内部人士交谈时，这只是少数派观点。更广泛的看法是，虽然对弗拉格的信心并未减弱，但今年其他新秀的一些卓越表现——包括在他之后被选中的三名球员，迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)、VJ·埃奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 和康·纽佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)，外加第11顺位的塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward)——将使这场竞争变得饶有趣味。
“库珀表现不错，但球队和他自己都比预期中挣扎，”一位西部球探说。“而且，最重要的是，这是一届天才云集的新秀。”
文霍斯特： 纽佩尔在经历了一个非常强势的开局后，无疑已经加入了竞争。他的三分命中率接近40%，并立即证明了他是夏洛特的基石，尽管黄蜂队因明星后卫拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 再次遭遇脚踝伤病而陷入困境。
但从历史上看，处于弗拉格这种情况的球员——作为球队核心的状元秀——有很大的机会获胜。大多数顶级奖项都基于球队表现，但年度最佳新秀并非总是如此。人们普遍预期，最好的新秀往往在烂队里，即使达拉斯的情况在赛季初并非如此。
其他竞争者大多仍然扮演着角色球员，这作为新秀是很自然的，即使他们在自己的角色中表现出色，比如考沃德在孟菲斯。而弗拉格几乎在每一次进攻中都会手握球权，他将累积大量的防守数据和高光时刻。
“如果弗拉格保持健康，他应该能获奖，因为他是承担最大责任的最佳球员，”一位西部高管说。
“但你们媒体向来以搞砸事情而闻名，所以我不会打包票。”
点击查看原文：NBA intel: Execs, scouts on sinking Mavs, soaring Lakers and Spurs
NBA intel: Execs, scouts on sinking Mavs, soaring Lakers and Spurs
There weren’t many people, inside the NBA or outside of it, believing the arguments Nico Harrison made in February as to why he orchestrated one of the most shocking deals in league history in sending Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers.
There also weren’t many people believing Harrison should have remained as Mavs general manager as Dallas saw its ugly end to last season carry over into this one, including “Fire Nico!” chants ringing out at home during Mavericks free throws in a one possession game Monday night against the Milwaukee Bucks.
So, in that spirit, we decided to ask league executives and scouts whether they’re believing in some of the most impactful early-season trends across the NBA, beginning with the crater that is the Mavericks franchise before moving on to hot starts for the Lakers and San Antonio Spurs, the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder’s chances at 70 wins and what’s next for the suddenly deep Rookie of the Year race.
Jump to intel:
Will sliding Mavs have to trade AD?
Will Magic figure out their offense?
Will Lakers and Spurs stay this hot?
Will Clippers keep looking this old?
Will Thunder capture 70-plus wins?
Will the ROY race stay wide open?
Do you believe Dallas will remain this bad?
Tim Bontemps: In conversations with sources around the NBA this week in the wake of Harrison’s firing, there is a near universal belief that the Mavericks cannot remain as bad as their 3-9 record and minus-6.5 point differential suggests. Does that mean league insiders are projecting a playoff run?
No.
“I still think they could be good if everyone is healthy,” a Western Conference executive told ESPN. “But you can’t bet on that.”
Even if healthy – Dallas is far from it now, with Anthony Davis playing just five games and Kyrie Irving sidelined after an ACL tear in March – the flaws within the roster remain. D’Angelo Russell, the one proven point guard on the active roster, has been completely marginalized by coach Jason Kidd in favor of Brandon Williams, who is on a partially guaranteed minimum deal.
And while Williams has shown flashes – he had 17 points and nine assists in Wednesday’s loss to the Phoenix Suns – Dallas’ lack of ballhandling and the imbalances across its roster are impossible to ignore.
“Until they have a feasible point guard, they’re going to flounder,” a West scout said.
With the Mavericks being the biggest topic around the league this week, the discussion quickly shifted to the question looming over whomever is tapped to replace Harrison as the lead executive: What does the future hold for Davis and Irving less than three months until the February trade deadline?
The belief, from sources I spoke to, is that the Mavs moving on from at least Davis, if not both stars, was the optimal strategy. Those moves would help maximize the 2026 first-round pick in a loaded 2026 draft class – the only selection Dallas controls the rest of this decade – to reposition the franchise around 2025 No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg.
“Absolutely,” an Eastern Conference executive said when asked whether trading the two veteran stars was the right path for Dallas.
Brian Windhorst: Honestly, discussions with league executives this week surprisingly haven’t centered around whether the Mavericks should trade Davis – there seems to be a consensus that it is probably the correct strategy despite being another painful development to sell to the fan base. A team built around Irving and Davis has teeth, and it’s not unreasonable to want to at least see the full roster in action; with Irving’s rehab going well, it should be on the table.
But no, the discussions were whether the Mavs could get appropriate value when trading Davis.
“I just looked it up so I could say this to my owner if he asks me about it, AD is turning 33 in March and he’s going to be in position next summer where he’ll probably want a contract extension that would cost $70 million per year when he’d be 37,” one general manager said.
“He’s a great player, full stop. But when you consider a player at his age with his injury history, you’d also be trading for the stress of that extension. That plays into it.”
Referencing Davis’ injury history is tiresome. When he’s healthy, he’s a playoff series-changing player at both ends of the court. The Lakers’ acquisition of him in 2019 ahead of their title run in the bubble changed the balance of power in the league. If the Mavericks come to the conclusion they need to readjust their timeline around Flagg – for now that is an if despite what the strategy wings of opposing front offices might forecast – there is the potential he could change the balance of power once again.
But the takeaway from conversations this week is whether Dallas will be able to get the kind of offers that make trading him a no-brainer.
“There’s one thing I can say with absolute certainty,” a veteran executive said. “If Dallas decides to trade AD, they won’t get the same return the Lakers got for him.”
No kidding.
Bontemps: One underappreciated aspect of moving on from Davis and Irving, however, is to get Dallas out of the luxury tax.
The Mavericks owe about $32 million in taxes with their current roster, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, and are about $16 million over the luxury tax threshold this season. For a team headed nowhere, it’s extremely hard to justify those expenses.
Moving on from their two stars by the deadline would allow Dallas to potentially duck the tax, reset its timeline and acquire future picks and players to restock an older roster with youth alongside their rookie sensation.
Do you believe Orlando has figured out its offense?
Windhorst: The Magic have won five of the past seven games with their offense on a heater, ranking in the top 10 in the league in that window. (Although, leading scorer Paolo Banchero’s day-to-day designation after suffering a groin injury could cause a correction if the star is forced to miss extended time.)
Orlando ranked dead last in pace last season, but assistant coach Joe Prunty, hired in a front office-led staff shake-up in the offseason, was brought in to rev up those numbers. The Magic now rank in the middle of the pack in pace, and scouts report there’s significantly fewer plays being called by coach Jamahl Mosley, encouraging a quicker read-and-react system.
Having said that…
“Sometimes when they struggle on offense they hang their heads and slow down,” an East coach said. “I’ve seen it before – it’s a product of a team that doesn’t believe in itself offensively yet.”
Bontemps: After beating the New York Knicks on Wednesday night at Madison Square Garden, the Magic are back to .500 on the season and up to 18th in the NBA in offense. That ranking doesn’t seem all that great, but consider this absolutely unbelievable stat:
The last time the Magic didn’t finish the season as a bottom-10 offense was all the way back in 2011-12, when Dwight Howard was still playing with the Magic and Stan Van Gundy was coaching.
That infamous record was supposed to be left in the dust this season after Orlando landed Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies in a blockbuster trade this offseason. Instead, the Magic still look stuck in the mud at that end of the floor.
“They shouldn’t be this bad,” a West scout said. “But I don’t see any reason to think otherwise.”
The ongoing offensive struggles have put a spotlight on Mosley, who has repeatedly shown an ability to craft an elite defensive unit with this squad, and Banchero, who continues to put up impressive individual numbers that have yet to translate into overall team offensive success.
“It’s got to get a little better, but the pieces aren’t changing,” a West executive said. "Bane will settle in eventually. But you still have a ball-dominant, iso star in Paolo that doesn’t scream ball movement, player movement and getting open shots.
“It hasn’t been pretty at all.”
Do you believe the Spurs and Lakers are top-four seeds in the West?
Bontemps: Reactions to this question were all over the map, but not because of the individual merits of the two West contenders. San Antonio and Los Angeles were praised for their early season play, but while plenty of league insiders bought into the idea of the Spurs and Lakers finishing in the West’s top four, plenty of doubts centered around the elite competition standing in their way.
“Oklahoma City, Houston and Denver are really good,” a West executive said. “You only have one spot left, and you haven’t accounted for either of them, or Minnesota.”
Another West executive rattled off those six teams and added that, while they weren’t convinced the Lakers or Spurs will remain in the top four, it was clear that both had surpassed the LA Clippers and Golden State Warriors in the race to stay above the play-in line (top six) out West.
The general belief was that of the two teams, the Lakers have more staying power. The eventual return of LeBron James will only add to their chances along with the incandescent play by Doncic and Austin Reaves.
Opinions were mixed when it came to the Spurs’ outlook.
“I’ll take the Spurs, because Wemby is just that good,” an East scout said.
“I’d bet on the Spurs falling off,” a West scout said. “I’d be shocked if Victor plays 82 games. His body just isn’t built for that.”
Windhorst: James nearing a return is a pretty big factor. He was second-team All-NBA last season, after all, and he has begun practicing with the Lakers’ G League team. The ceiling absolutely can be raised … maybe.
“Don’t ask me about the Lakers until I can see LeBron play and see him move and how he looks,” one East executive said. “He isn’t just dealing with the sciatica, he hurt his knee at the end of last season, and it surely affected his training routine. He’s never started a season coming off injuries like this before.”
“They are bottom 10 in defensive rating and bottom 10 in net rating as I’m looking at it right now and they make the third-fewest 3s in the NBA,” one scout said. “Those are not good fundamentals.”
This, however, can be said: A team with Doncic, James and Reaves can probably beat any team on any night. It is dangerous. But can it beat anyone four times in a playoff series? Let’s wait and see, but there is reason for optimism.
Unless you’re comparing them to OKC.
Do you believe the Clippers will continue looking this old?
Windhorst: The Clippers picked the wrong time to have the oldest roster in NBA history. The league is playing super fast in the early going. Last year, 12 teams averaged 100-plus possessions. Now, that number is 25, perhaps an outgrowth of copycats to the speedy Indiana Pacers after last season’s unexpected run to the Finals.
The NBA is trending toward speed, not just in transition but within half-court sets, too. The Clippers, dead last in pace and fast-break points, simply can’t keep up.
“They move so slowly, they can’t recover when they turn the ball over or give up a quick transition,” one advance scout said.
The Clippers have been a shell of last season’s defensive juggernaut that ranked in the top three in the league. They are also dealing with the fallout of trading guard Norman Powell to the Miami Heat, a void left on the floor and in the locker room, after choosing to not offer him a lucrative contract extension.
In the wake of Bradley Beal’s season-ending hip injury and the indicators of their collective age being used against them, coach Tyronn Lue announced this week that he would focus on playing the handful of younger role players such as Cam Christie, Kobe Sanders and Jordan Miller.
The subtext is this: The Clippers are not getting much production from Brook Lopez, Nicolas Batum or Bogdan Bogdanovic and Chris Paul is totally out of the rotation for the first time in his career. Those four players’ average age is 37 – it is showing, and all at the same time.
“Teams don’t start playing a bunch of young players all at once and think it’s going to lead them to winning,” a rival executive said. “But in this case maybe it will help them.”
Bontemps: Only one question (more on that below) was met with a more universal and immediate reaction: Less than a month into the season, the outlook is dim for the Clippers.
“They are cooked,” an East executive said of L.A.'s chances this season after a 3-8 start.
Losing Beal for the season didn’t help matters, but that is far from the only problem plaguing the franchise.
“Unless you can show me where the fountain of youth is, I don’t see [a path back],” a West scout said. “Kawhi [Leonard] has looked good when he’s played. But you can’t rely on him.”
Windhorst: And the Leonard situation seems to be worsening. Team president Lawrence Frank revealed on Wednesday that Leonard hasn’t just been out with an ankle sprain but also a “significant” foot sprain and inflammation.
A lot of the excitement around the Clippers coming into the season was an outgrowth of how healthy Leonard looked at the end of last season and in training camp. Unfortunately, Leonard is already dealing with an extended absence, and the Clippers are sinking without him. The Clippers now leave on a seven-game road trip. (We remind readers that the Thunder own the Clippers’ first-round pick in June’s draft.)
Do you believe the Thunder will win 70-plus games?
Bontemps: The only question that received a more definitive answer than the Clippers’ outlook? The Thunder’s. It comes on the heels of OKC demolishing the Warriors and Lakers on back-to-back nights this week while missing, among others, Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort.
“They might win 80 [games],” a West scout said.
Perhaps that goal is a bit too lofty, but can the Thunder, after winning 68 last season en route to the title, become the third team in NBA history to reach 70 wins?
“The only question,” an East scout said, “is if they want to.”
The former point sparked the biggest conversation among league insiders. There’s little doubt the Thunder, who are outscoring teams by what would be a record-shattering point differential of plus-15.6 points per 100 possessions, are capable of joining the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72 wins) and 2015-16 Warriors (73).
What’s unclear is whether they’ll truly pursue that mark if it comes within striking distance late in the season.
Windhorst: The Thunder are 80-15 since the start of the 2024-25 season. That’s an 84% winning percentage. To win 70 games in the NBA, you need to win 85% of your games. Beyond this little math lesson, the point is this: The Thunder have been playing like a 70-win team for a long time.
“They have the depth that they could win 70 games even if they don’t want to,” an East scout said. “Their second stringers would start in most places. Their third stringers would be in the rotation most places.”
Wednesday night after slaying the Lakers, All-NBA wing Jalen Williams poked his head into ESPN’s Malika Andrews’ walk-off interview with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and jokingly reminded everyone that he was still in the NBA since he hasn’t yet been on the court this season.
It was a funny moment but to the rest of the league, it was no laughing matter.
Do you believe the Rookie of the Year race will remain wide open?
Bontemps: Flagg – the massive preseason favorite to win the award – is off to what is actually a strong start to his rookie campaign amid the misery surrounding the Mavericks. He’s in the top five among all rookies in scoring, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, all while not even turning 19 for another few weeks and playing out of position at point guard on a clunky roster.
That’s why one East executive shot down the notion this race is wide open. “Cooper will win it going away. This class is great, but Cooper will show who he is as the season goes on,” they said.
That, however, was the minority opinion when talking with league insiders. The wider belief is while the faith in Flagg hasn’t diminished, some of the superlative performances from rookies this year – including the three players taken after him, Dylan Harper, VJ Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel, plus Cedric Coward at No. 11 – will make it an interesting race to follow.
“Cooper has been good, but both the team and he have struggled more than expected,” a West scout said. “And, on top of that, it’s a loaded class.”
Windhorst: Knueppel has definitely entered the race after a very strong start. He’s shooting almost 40% on 3s and has immediately shown he’s a cornerstone in Charlotte even as the Hornets sink amid another ankle injury for star guard LaMelo Ball.
But historically, players who are in Flagg’s situation – a No. 1 pick at the centerpiece of his team – have a great chance to win. Most top awards are based on team performance, but that isn’t always the case with Rookie of the Year. There is an expectation that the best rookies are often on bad teams, even if the Dallas situation was not seen that way to start the season.
The other contenders mostly still play a role, which is natural as a rookie, even if they are excelling in their role such as Coward has in Memphis. Flagg will have his hands on the ball on almost every possession, and he’s going to rack up defensive numbers and highlights.
“If Flagg stays healthy, he should win it because he’s the best player with the biggest responsibilities,” a West executive said.
“But you media guys are known to screw things up, so I won’t guarantee it.”
By Tim Bontemps, Brian Windhorst | ESPN, via ESPN