By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-11-05 05:17:29
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
马刺队本赛季开局势头正猛，目前以5胜1负的战绩暂居西部第二。尽管赛季尚早，但圣安东尼奥的乐透区岁月似乎已经结束，球队现在将目光投向了季后赛。
然而，多亏了那笔出色的德章泰·穆雷 (Dejounte Murray) 交易，银黑军团仍有机会获得一个高顺位选秀权。马刺队拥有与亚特兰大老鹰队的选秀权互换权，而后者当家球星特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 最近遭遇内侧副韧带扭伤，将在四周后接受复查。
这对老鹰队来说是个沉重打击，他们刚刚引进了多名老将，希望在竞争开放的东部有所作为。他们引进了克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)、尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 和卢克·肯纳德 (Luke Kennard)，与他们的明星控卫和年轻的角色球员阵容并肩作战。赛季开始几场后，他们发现自己战绩仅为2胜3负，还面临进攻引擎的重伤。如果赛季今天结束，亚特兰大将陷入五队争夺两个附加赛席位的局面，并拥有第九高的状元签概率，根据Tankathon的数据。排在他们前面的球队包括正在摆烂的篮网和奇才，但其中也包括一支本赛季可能迎回杰森·塔特姆 (Jayson Tatum) 的凯尔特人队，以及可能迎回凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 的独行侠队。
对亚特兰大而言，好消息是在缺少特雷·杨的三场比赛里（包括他受伤的那场），他们赢下了其中两场。坏消息是，这些胜利的对手是0胜6负的篮网和1胜6负的步行者。他们与骑士队打得难分伯仲，这一点令人印象深刻。杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 为他们打出了野兽级的表现，而在与联盟中一些弱队交手时，他们的防守在缺少特雷·杨的情况下也如预料般得到了提升。但接下来的赛程将愈发艰难，未来四场比赛以及未来十场中的六场，对手都是预计能进入季后赛或附加赛的球队。老鹰队可能很快就会陷入困境。
现在，互换权的存在让老鹰队没有任何摆烂的动力。如果他们能在特雷·杨回归前勉力支撑，相对羸弱的东部也可能让他们保住附加赛甚至季后赛的希望。如前所述，杰伦·约翰逊表现出色，而在经历了缓慢的开局后，戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 和扎卡里·里萨谢 (Zaccharie Risacher) 的状态正渐入佳境。然而，如果他们再遭遇一次伤病，情况可能会变得有趣起来。克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯的职业生涯中仅有三次出场超过60场，而在过去五个赛季中仅有一次。肯纳德也不是那种非常耐用的球员。杰伦·约翰逊在年轻的职业生涯中也遭受过各种伤病。如果再有一名轮换球员缺阵，老鹰队备受质疑的阵容深度将面临考验。
除了场上因素，还有两个因素可能会影响老鹰队如何应对本赛季。首先是特雷·杨的续约问题。双方未能在休赛期达成协议，现在特雷·杨可能进入了他合同的最后一年，因为他在2026/27赛季拥有球员选项。这次受伤使得双方短期内达成协议的可能性变得微乎其微。如果老鹰队在交易截止日临近时仍在挣扎，过去曾抱怨亚特兰大缺乏成功的特雷·杨可能会请求交易。而如果球队在此期间表现出色，管理层或许会想要与特雷·杨分道扬镳。
通常情况下，可能失去一位建队核心对任何球队都是毁灭性的，但老鹰队或许能在下次选秀中找到替代者。马刺队可能会与他们互换选秀权，但他们也拥有来自鹈鹕队的2026年首轮签——这是源于一笔为得到德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen) 而在选秀日达成的交易，该选秀权完全不受保护。新奥尔良目前0胜6负，并且队内拥有锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson) 这位联盟中最脆弱的超级巨星之一。西部才人济济，因此即便他们努力争胜，乔·杜马斯 (Joe Dumars) 的球队也可能会发现自己深陷泥潭。他们的选秀权可能成为选秀大年中顺位最高的签位之一，目前拥有第二高的状元签概率。
现在就规划马刺和老鹰的赛季走向还为时过早。亚特兰大可能在缺少特雷·杨一个月的情况下依然取得成功，未来不再遭受重大伤病，并在羸弱的东部提升排名。马刺队可能在强势开局后突然崩盘，使得选秀权互换变得毫无意义。特雷·杨和亚特兰大的管理层也可能同意续约，消除所有关于未来的不确定性。老鹰队可能会进行一些旨在赢在当下的交易，因为他们完全没有摆烂的动机。他们可能会将鹈鹕队的选秀权视为增加第二位（或第三位，取决于你如何看待杰伦·约翰逊）球星的机会，而不是将其看作寻找特雷·杨替代者的契机。
事态将如何发展会非常有趣，因为尽管亚特兰大发生的一切最终可能不会对圣安东尼奥产生重大影响，但这种可能性确实存在。马刺已经建立了一个出色的年轻核心，假如他们能保持良好状态，那么在乐透区摘取高顺位新秀的日子就结束了。除非老鹰队经历一个糟糕的赛季——而现在看来，这正成为一种切实的可能性。
点击查看原文：The Spurs’ swap rights to the Hawks’ 2026 pick could be more valuable than expected
The Spurs’ swap rights to the Hawks’ 2026 pick could be more valuable than expected
The Spurs started the season on a tear and are currently sitting second in the West standings with a 5-1 record. It’s early, but it seems like the lottery days might be over for San Antonio, which now looks to the postseason.
Thanks to the fantastic Dejounte Murray trade, however, there is a chance the Silver and Black could get a high pick. The Spurs have swap rights with the Atlanta Hawks, who recently lost Trae Young to an MCL sprain and will be reevaluated in four weeks.
It’s a tough blow for the Hawks, which added veterans to make a push in the wide-open East. They brought in Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard to join their star point guard and their young supporting cast. A few games into the season, they find themselves with a 2-3 record and a big injury to their offensive engine. If the season ended today, Atlanta would be in a five-team tie to get two play-in spots and would have the ninth-best odds at the top pick in the lottery, according to Tankathon. The teams above them include the tanking Nets and Wizards, but also a Celtics squad that could get Jayson Tatum back this season and the Mavericks, who could get Kyrie Irving back.
The good news for Atlanta is that they have played three games without Young, including the one in which he suffered his injury, and they have won two of them. The bad news is that those wins came against the 0-6 Nets and the 1-6 Pacers. They played the Cavaliers close, which is impressive. Jalen Johnson has been an absolute beast for them, and their defense has unsurprisingly improved without Young in matchups against some of the worst teams in the league. But the schedule is about to get tougher, with the next four games and six of the next 10 against teams expected to make the playoffs or fight for the play-in. The Hawks could find themselves in a hole soon.
Now, the swap rights make it so the Hawks have no incentive to tank. The shallow East could also keep them alive in the play-in or even playoff hunt if they can tread water until Young returns. As mentioned, Johnson has been fantastic, and after slow starts, Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher are trending up. Things could get interesting, however, if they suffer another injury. Kristaps Porzingis has played over 60 games just three times in his career and just once in the last five seasons. Kennard is not the most durable of players. Johnson has suffered an assortment of injuries in his young career. If another rotation piece misses time, the Hawks’ questionable depth could be tested.
Beyond the on-court stuff, there are two factors that could affect how the Hawks approach this season. First, Trae Young’s extension situation. The two parties failed to come to an agreement in the offseason, and now Young could be in the last year of his contract, as he has a player option for the 2026/27 season. The injury makes it unlikely a deal will be reached any time soon. If the Hawks are struggling close to the trade deadline, Young, who in the past has complained about Atlanta’s lack of success, could maybe ask out. If they are thriving, the front office might want to move on from Young.
Normally, potentially losing a franchise star would be devastating for a team, but the Hawks could get a replacement in the next draft. The Spurs might swap for their pick, but they have the Pelicans’ first-rounder in the 2026 draft, fully unprotected, from a draft-day trade for Derik Queen. New Orleans is 0-6 and has one of the most fragile superstars in Zion Williamson. The West is deep with talent, so even if they try to win, Joe Dumars’ team could find itself in the cellar. Their pick could be one of the highest in a stellar draft, currently having the second-best odds at the top pick.
It’s entirely too early to map out how the Spurs’ and Hawks’ seasons will play out. Atlanta could find success even without Young for a month, suffer no major injuries going forward, and move up the standings in the weak East. The Spurs could implode after a strong start, making the swap rights meaningless. Young and Atlanta’s front office might agree to an extension, erasing any uncertainties about the future. The Hawks could make win-now trades, since they have zero motivation to tank. They could see the Pelicans’ pick as an opportunity to add a second star (or third, depending on how you see Johnson) instead of seeing it as a chance to find Young’s replacement.
It will be interesting to see how things play out, because even though what happens in Atlanta might not end up having a major impact in San Antonio, there’s a chance it could. The Spurs have built a great young core and assuming they remain good, the days of picking high in the lottery are over. Unless the Hawks have a bad season, that is, which is looking like a real possibility.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock