By Zach Kram, Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-11-04 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
东部两支潜在的争冠球队正步履维艰，而西部两支球队则状态火热。与此同时，一项重要奖项的争夺已然天翻地覆。
2025-26 NBA赛季仅进行了短短两周，但这正是深入探讨这些早期意外背后的关键数据和话题的最佳时机。
ESPN全国分析师扎克·克拉姆 (Zach Kram) 和凯文·佩尔顿 (Kevin Pelton) 将围绕维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)、保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero)、特雷·杨 (Trae Young)、奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)、库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 等球员，激辩新赛季初期最受关注的几大问题。
维克托·文班亚马能让圣安东尼奥马刺成为真正的争冠球队吗？
佩尔顿： 马刺队似乎是那支正在实现飞跃的年轻队伍。从揭幕战大胜达拉斯独行侠开始，圣安东尼奥马刺队取得了队史首次5胜0负的开局，而在我的“高于替代球员的胜利贡献值”指标中，按每回合计算，维克托·文班亚马的表现高居联盟第二。
但需要注意的是他们的赛程。周四与同样开局迅猛的迈阿密热火队的对决，是马刺队首次迎战一支2025年的季后赛球队，而在下周五对阵休斯顿火箭队的NBA杯小组赛揭幕战之前，他们甚至不会遇到任何一支在上赛季季后赛中赢过超过一场比赛的对手。扎克，你相信圣安东尼奥的这个开局吗？还是你觉得需要看到他们击败一个真正的强敌？（就文班的情况而言，可能没人有他那个“块头”。）
克拉姆： 最简单的答案是，只要文班亚马继续打出MVP候选人级别的表现，马刺队的上限就和他本人一样高。他前六场比赛的球员效率值 (PER) 高达30.7。在本赛季之前，NBA历史上仅出现过35次球员效率值超过30的情况，而这些球员所在的球队平均能赢下53.5场比赛。
但如今NBA的人才库如此深厚，以至于一位超凡巨星有时并不足以将一支球队推向联盟顶端。那35次纪录中就包括了近年的一些例子，比如扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)、尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)、安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 和拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克 (Russell Westbrook)，他们尽管打出了卓越的个人赛季，但球队仍在排行榜中游徘徊。
这种情况对马刺来说仍然很有可能发生，因为围绕在文班亚马身边的辅助阵容实力尚不明确。卫冕年度最佳新秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 在效率提升的同时场均贡献20分，并提供了出色的防守。但后卫德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 均有伤在身，前场的卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet)、凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk) 和杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan) 也是如此。
圣安东尼奥排名联盟第二的防守看起来是货真价实的：在年度最佳防守球员的热门人选文班亚马的带领下，马刺队的内线失分是联盟第二少的，而且随着赛季的进行，他们在对手的投篮运气方面应该会有所好转。目前，马刺队对手的三分命中率高达39%，排在联盟第三。
但我对他们排名第九的进攻更为怀疑，至少在福克斯回归、我们看到球队在拥有一位持球型全明星控卫后的战术体系和轮换阵容之前是这样。
佩尔顿： 我认为关于球员效率值30+赛季的那个数据值得深入研究。如今，这种个人数据表现的意义不如以往，原因有二。首先，尽管球员效率值的联盟平均值被固定在15，但持球大核心的打法意味着我们看到比以往任何时候都更多的球员突破了30大关。
根据Sports-Reference.com的数据，从1963-64赛季到迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 1998年从芝加哥公牛队退役，期间只有大卫·罗宾逊 (David Robinson) 是唯一另一位在有资格参与NBA场均数据排名的情况下球员效率值超过30的球员。（乔丹自己做到了四次。）然而，在2021-22赛季和2024-25赛季，都各有三名球员做到了这一点。阿德托昆博和约基奇两次都在其中，另外两次分别由乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 和谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 完成。
所以现在要突破这个门槛更容易了。除此之外，在勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 2012-13赛季之前，球员效率值超过30的球员在球队每场比赛中平均出战40.1分钟。而从那以后，由于伤病增多、平均上场时间减少以及负荷管理，球员效率值超过30的球员在球队每场比赛中平均只出战34.0分钟。所以，是的，单一球星对于比赛胜负的影响力确实不如从前了。
谁是东部最佳的触底反弹候选者？
克拉姆： 亚特兰大老鹰队和奥兰多魔术队将于周二晚在亚特兰大相遇，这是十月份一场老鹰以111-107获胜的比赛的重演，两支球队都亟需一场胜利。这两支同属东南赛区的对手，作为在格局动荡的东部联盟中崛起的年轻球队，在赛季开始前都曾怀有很高的期望；在ESPN的季前赛排名中，他们分列东部第三和第四。
但经过两周的比赛，老鹰和魔术似乎都比上赛季离竞争者行列更远了，而上赛季他们双双进入了附加赛。老鹰队饱受伤病困扰，目前战绩为3胜4负，净效率值为-2.9，而同样3胜4负的魔术队，尽管引进了德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)，进攻效率值仍排在联盟第22位，三分命中数更是垫底。
凯文，你认为这两支看似有竞争力的球队中，哪一支最有机会触底反弹，在依然开放的东部排行榜上攀升？
佩尔顿： 当我们九月份最初构思这个话题时，我们的想法是我们对于亚特兰大和奥兰多谁将成为东部崛起力量的看法不一。（扎克看好老鹰，而我是魔术的信徒。）现在看来，我们俩可能都错了？
我仍然认为奥兰多可以重回正轨。魔术队在1胜4负开局期间最大的问题是每晚的投篮表现都被对手压制，而GeniusIQ的量化投篮概率模型——该模型根据投篮位置、类型以及与附近防守者的距离来估算预期有效命中率——显示，在考虑球员个人能力后，他们所创造的投篮机会其实优于对手。
贝恩，一位生涯三分命中率41%的射手，不会一直只有26%的命中率；而泰厄斯·琼斯 (Tyus Jones) 在考虑三分球附加值后，他的有效命中率也不会一直停留在42%（过去两个赛季他的有效命中率为57%）。我继续相信奥兰多，是我错了吗？
克拉姆： 即使不考虑投篮回暖的因素，对魔术队的信心也需要基于对班凯罗是一名真正的超级巨星和球队第一选择的坚定信念。他看起来具备这种潜质，而且他的表面数据一直很亮眼。但如果在他职业生涯的每个赛季中，当班凯罗不在场时魔术队表现都更好，这又说明了什么呢？
这不是投篮运气或者换人模式的问题；这是一个在越来越大的分钟样本中持续出现的模式。根据PBP Stats的数据，当班凯罗和弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 在各自的职业生涯中分开带队时，班凯罗在场魔术的净效率值为-7.7。但当瓦格纳在场而班凯罗不在时，魔术队却能蓬勃发展，净效率值为+7.0。
结合了在场/离场数据的高阶统计得出结论，班凯罗整体上只是一名普通水平的球员，而非一位未来的最佳阵容候选人。我认为如果情况如此，奥兰多无法抢占东部前列的席位。
佩尔顿： 这说明瓦格纳才是一位隐藏的超级巨星，理所当然嘛！说正经的，看好魔术队在东部具备竞争力是基于一个前提，即更多的射手能为班凯罗解锁更高质量的投篮机会。根据GeniusIQ模型中不考虑球员个人能力的“量化投篮质量”指标，上赛季出手至少750次的球员中，只有27%的球员出手难度比班凯罗更高。
然而，班凯罗的投篮质量在赛季初期几乎没有改善，他的组织能力也有所下降。根据NBA Advanced Stats的数据，他场均只有7.7次潜在助攻，低于去年的9.4次。现在需要奥兰多的教练组来创造更多的球的转移，从而让班凯罗和其他所有人都受益。
到目前为止，我们都聚焦于魔术队，但对于亚特兰大在备受期待的休赛期后开局缓慢，你有什么看法？
克拉姆： 亚特兰大最大的担忧是健康问题。我仍然相信这支全员健康的球队：特雷·杨凭借一己之力就能打造出高效的进攻，而他的队友们都是优秀乃至顶级的防守者，能够弥补他在防守端的不足。
不幸的是，本赛季老鹰队几乎没有全员健康过，而且这种情况还将持续一段时间。戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 是唯一一位本赛季还未缺席过比赛的首发球员，而杨在上周扭伤右膝后将至少缺阵一个月。这些伤病暴露了老鹰队阵容深度不足的问题，他们的球员实力在排名前七八位之后就急剧下降。（至少穆罕默德·盖耶 (Mouhamed Gueye) 看起来是一位有潜力的替补席奇兵。）
为了说明这一挑战，老鹰队的三位核心球员——杨、杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 和克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)——今年仅共同在场打了42分钟。相比之下，奥兰多的班凯罗-瓦格纳-贝恩三人组已经共同出战了144分钟。
诚然，那42分钟打得也并不出色，因为老鹰队重建后的阵容显然还在学习如何并肩作战，而他们排名联盟第25的进攻在杨长期缺阵期间更是雪上加霜。但我认为他们的上限依然很高，只要他们能在季后赛前全员恢复健康，并建立起一些熟悉度和连续性。
勒布朗·詹姆斯应该为卢卡·东契奇和奥斯汀·里夫斯打辅助吗？
克拉姆： 另一支稳居西部排行榜前列的球队是洛杉矶湖人队，他们6胜2负的开局令人惊喜，因为东契奇和詹姆斯加起来只出场了四次。但在两位明星队友缺阵期间，里夫斯的爆发支撑起了湖人队。在没有东契奇的三场比赛中，里夫斯对阵国王队得到51分，对阵开拓者队得到41分，以及得到28分——最后一场还包括了对阵森林狼的压哨绝杀——他赛季场均数据达到31.1分和9.3次助攻。
围绕他这次升级表现的讨论大多集中在他即将到来的完全自由球员身份上——他明年夏天能拿到多大的合同，以及这对湖人队的财务和建队意味着什么。但如果里夫斯的进攻能力真的接近这个水平，那对当下也至关重要；毕竟，东契奇有过与一位得力后场搭档一同杀入季后赛深处的历史。
里夫斯能否扮演当年杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 和凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 在达拉斯分别帮助球队打入分区决赛和总决赛时类似的角色？本赛季开始前，詹姆斯似乎是东契奇身边理所当然的二号人物，但随着他因坐骨神经痛持续缺阵而里夫斯表现出色，这位NBA历史得分王正面临着被“沃利·皮普式”取代的风险。
佩尔顿： 无论杰克·拉拉维亚 (Jake LaRavia) 打得多好（我以后会告诉我的孩子们，这才是湖人队的三巨头），勒布朗或许还是应该首发。不过，我确实认为此时把球从里夫斯手中拿走会是一个错误。根据NBA Advanced Stats的数据，本赛季东契奇（场均8.7分钟）和里夫斯（7.5分钟）的场均控球时间分别排在联盟第一和第六。
这与上赛季相比是一个巨大的变化，当时詹姆斯（5.4分钟）的场均控球时间略高于里夫斯（5.2分钟），尽管两人场均出场时间相同。当然，作为一名生涯三分命中率37%的球员，里夫斯在无球端也能打出效率。但我认为他现在已经展现了足够的持球创造力，是时候让过去两个赛季三分命中率达到39%的詹姆斯，在湖人首发阵容在场时，主要扮演进攻终结点而非创造者的角色了。
奥斯汀·里夫斯命中@天梭 压哨绝杀！！！
你的时刻，定义你的伟大。 https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1983751150613528936/video/1
— NBA (@ NBA) October 30, 2025
根据GeniusIQ的数据，本赛季在没有潜在助攻机会的情况下，里夫斯的出手次数高居联盟第三。而他在这些出手上的57%的有效命中率，在至少出手50次的49名球员中排名第13，仅次于吉尔杰斯-亚历山大。（东契奇以63%排在该群体第三。）上赛季，詹姆斯在没有潜在助攻机会的投篮中有效命中率为52%，但在有潜在助攻的情况下则提升至67%。
克拉姆： 我同意，湖人队主教练JJ·雷迪克 (JJ Redick) 继续给里夫斯持球机会是合理的，尤其是在东契奇不在场的时候。在这种情况下，里夫斯的传球能力和制造犯规的倾向给我留下了特别深刻的印象。（本赛季里夫斯场均罚球命中9.3次，在所有球员中排名第三——仅次于排名第二的东契奇，后者为10.8次。）
一旦詹姆斯回归赛场，东契奇和里夫斯可以帮助减轻他的工作负荷，以保持他在本赛季剩余时间里的健康。但同样需要注意的是，即使已经四十多岁，NBA中仍然没有多少球员比詹姆斯更值得拥有出手权。上赛季，詹姆斯凭借产量和效率的顶级结合入选了NBA最佳阵容二队。他拥有30%的使用率和60%的真实命中率；唯一能同时达到这两项标准的球员只有阿德托昆博和MVP吉尔杰斯-亚历山大。
这并非一个简单的答案，但对于雷迪克来说，这终究是一个幸福的烦恼。根据DARKO预测系统，按每回合计算，东契奇是NBA进攻价值第三高的球员，而里夫斯和詹姆斯则恰如其分地并列第15位。
VJ·埃奇库姆是否已经超越库珀·弗拉格，成为年度最佳新秀的热门人选？
佩尔顿： 我并不担心状元秀弗拉格的成长，他目前在一支磨合不佳的独行侠队中被安排在不熟悉的位置上打球。尽管如此，弗拉格至今还不是杜克大学出身的最高效乐透秀，他的大学队友康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 场均得到14分，三分球51投22中。
这为一场真正的年度最佳新秀之争打开了大门，而3号秀埃奇库姆则异军突起。他场均出战惊人的39分钟——自2003-04赛季的勒布朗以来，没有新秀的场均出场时间超过38.6分钟——埃奇库姆场均贡献20.3分和5.0个篮板，同时三分命中率超过40%。
市场已经将VJ·埃奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 视为年度最佳新秀的热门人选，这个判断正确吗？还是说，这样评价对于弗拉格来说为时过早？毕竟他在作为职业球员的第一个周末，就在两场比赛中合砍40分和10次助攻。
克拉姆： 我甚至认为，埃奇库姆并不是唯一一个能从这位公认的热门人选手中抢走年度最佳新秀奖杯的有力竞争者。弗拉格的部分吸引力在于他预期的全面贡献——这尤其契合这个奖项的评选，因为正如你所记录的，过去38届年度最佳新秀奖中，有35次都颁给了在得分、篮板和助攻三项场均数据总和最高的合格球员。（例外情况是2003年阿马雷·斯塔德迈尔 (Amar’e Stoudemire) 战胜姚明 (Yao Ming)，2017年马尔科姆·布罗格登 (Malcolm Brogdon) 战胜达里奥·萨里奇 (Dario Saric)，以及2022年斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes) 战胜凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)。姚明和萨里奇在投票中排名第二，而坎宁安排名第三。）
但赛季开始两周后，弗拉格在三项数据总和上被埃奇库姆大幅甩开，而11号秀塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward)（目前新秀中高阶数据领先者）、2号秀哈珀和4号秀克努佩尔也紧随其后。
新秀得分、篮板、助攻场均数据排行榜
| 球员 | 场均得分 | 场均篮板 | 场均助攻 | 合计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJ·埃奇库姆, 费城76人 | 20.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 30.3 |
| 库珀·弗拉格, 达拉斯独行侠 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 23.3 |
| 塞德里克·考沃德, 孟菲斯灰熊 | 15.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 22.4 |
| 迪伦·哈珀, 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 21.8 |
| 康·克努佩尔, 夏洛特黄蜂 | 14.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 21.1 |
| 杰里迈亚·菲尔斯, 新奥尔良鹈鹕 | 13.7 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 20.0 |
| 特雷·约翰逊, 华盛顿奇才 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 17.7 |
| 科林·穆雷-博伊尔斯, 多伦多猛龙 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 16.0 |
| 莱恩·卡尔克布伦纳, 夏洛特黄蜂 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 16.0 |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 数据截至11月3日周一上午 |
即便在打控球后卫，弗拉格场均也只送出3.0次助攻，而且他所在的独行侠队进攻效率联盟垫底。这两项数据应该都会有所改善，但如果弗拉格在数据上不具备统治力，而且他的球队也赢不了球，那么他就很难超越埃奇库姆，后者最终可能会在一支更好的球队里打出更漂亮的数据。
点击查看原文：From Wemby to Reaves: Debating four early-season NBA storylines
From Wemby to Reaves: Debating four early-season NBA storylines
Two of the prospective contenders in the East are flailing, while two in the West are scorching hot. Meanwhile, an important awards race has already turned upside-down.
The 2025-26 NBA season is a mere two weeks old, but that’s a perfect time to start diving into the most important numbers and narratives surrounding these early surprises.
ESPN national analysts Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton debate the biggest early-season questions about Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero, Trae Young, Austin Reaves, Cooper Flagg and more.
Does Victor Wembanyama make the San Antonio Spurs a true contender?
Pelton: The Spurs appear to be the young team that is taking the leap. Starting with an opening-night drubbing of the Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio started 5-0 for the first time in franchise history, and Victor Wembanyama rates as the league’s second-best player on a per-possession basis in my wins above replacement player metric.
The caveat here is the schedule. Thursday’s showdown with the fast-starting Miami Heat was the Spurs’ first matchup against a 2025 playoff team, and they won’t face an opponent who won more than a single playoff game last spring until their NBA Cup group opener against the Houston Rockets next Friday. Do you buy San Antonio’s start, Zach, or do you need to see them beat somebody their own size? (Which might not be anybody, in Wemby’s case.)
Kram: The simplest answer is that as long as Wembanyama continues to play like an MVP candidate, the Spurs’ ceiling is as tall as he is. His PER through six games is 30.7. Before this season, there were 35 instances in NBA history in which a player posted a player efficiency rating above 30, and on average, their teams won 53.5 games.
But the NBA’s talent pool is so deep now that one transcendent star isn’t always sufficient to propel a team to the top of the standings. Those 35 instances include recent examples in which the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook were stuck in the middle of the standings despite tremendous individual seasons.
That possibility remains likely for the Spurs, as the quality of the supporting cast surrounding Wembanyama remains unclear. Reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle is averaging 20 points per game on increased efficiency while supplying excellent defense. But guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are both hurt, as are Luke Kornet, Kelly Olynyk and Jeremy Sochan in the frontcourt.
San Antonio’s second-ranked defense looks real: Led by Defensive Player of the Year favorite Wembanyama, the Spurs are allowing the second-fewest points in the paint, and they should get better opponent shooting luck as the season continues. Spurs opponents rank third in the NBA with a 39% mark from 3-point range.
But I’m more skeptical of their ninth-ranked offense, at least until Fox returns and we see the Spurs’ sets and rotations with a ball-dominant All-Star at the point.
Pelton: I think that stat about 30+ PER seasons is worth investigating. There are a couple of reasons that kind of individual production is less meaningful now. First, even though PER is pegged to a consistent average of 15, heliocentric offenses mean we’re seeing more players than ever top that mark.
Between 1963-64 and Michael Jordan’s retirement from the Chicago Bulls in 1998, David Robinson was the only other player to top a 30 PER while qualifying for NBA per-game leaderboards according to Sports-Reference.com. (Jordan did it four times.) Meanwhile, three players did so in both 2021-22 and 2024-25. Antetokounmpo and Jokic were part of both groups, rounded out by first Joel Embiid and then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
So the bar is easier to clear now. Beyond that, players with a 30-plus PER through LeBron James in 2012-13 averaged 40.1 minutes per team game. Since then, because of increasing injuries, decreasing minutes averages and load management, players with 30-plus PERs average just 34.0 minutes per team game. So yes, a single star is less meaningful in wins and losses terms than it once was.
Who is the best bounce-back candidate in the East?
Kram: The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic meet in Atlanta on Tuesday night, in a rematch of a 111-107 Hawks victory in October, and both teams could use a win. The Southeast Division foes had high hopes entering the season as young teams on the rise in an Eastern Conference in flux; they ranked third and fourth in the East in ESPN’s preseason rankings.
But after two weeks of games, both the Hawks and Magic look farther away from contention than they did last season, when both appeared in the play-in tournament. The Hawks have suffered from key absences and are 3-4 with a minus-2.9 net rating, while the 3-4 Magic rank 22nd in offensive rating and 30th in 3-point makes despite the addition of Desmond Bane.
Kevin, which ostensible contender do you believe has the best chance to bounce back and climb the still-wide-open Eastern Conference standings?
Pelton: When we first conceived this topic back in September, the idea was that we disagreed on which of Atlanta and Orlando would be the rising force in the East. (Zach liked the Hawks, while I was a Magic believer.) Now it’s looking like we might both be wrong?
I still think Orlando can right the ship. The Magic’s biggest issue during their 1-4 start was getting outshot on a nightly basis, and GeniusIQ’s quantified shot probability metric – which estimates the effective field-goal percentage we should expect based on the location and type of shot, and distance to nearby defenders – says they’ve been taking better shots than their opponents, when accounting for player ability.
Bane, a 41% career 3-point shooter, won’t keep hitting 26% and Tyus Jones will shoot better than an effective 42% when accounting for the added value of 3s (he was at 57% eFG% the past two seasons). Am I wrong to keep the Orlando faith?
Kram: Even beyond better shooting, faith in the Magic requires a strong belief in Banchero as a true superstar and No. 1 option. He looks the part, and his surface stats have always been strong. But what does it say when the Magic have been better with Banchero off the court in every season of his career?
This isn’t a matter of shooting luck or substitution patterns; this is a consistent pattern in an increasingly large sample of minutes. According to PBP Stats, when Banchero has played without Franz Wagner in their careers, the Magic have a minus-7.7 net rating. But the Magic thrive when Wagner plays without Banchero, with a plus-7.0 net rating.
Advanced stats that incorporate on/off data conclude that Banchero is merely average overall, rather than an All-NBA candidate in waiting. I don’t think Orlando can grab a top seed if that’s the case.
Pelton: It says that Wagner is a secret superstar, naturally! More seriously, picking the Magic to contend in the East was premised on more shooting unlocking higher-quality shots for Banchero. According to the player-neutral version of GeniusIQ’s metrics, quantified shot quality, just 27% of players who attempted at least 750 shots last year took more difficult ones than Banchero.
Yet Banchero’s shot quality has barely improved in the early going, and his playmaking is down. He’s averaging just 7.7 potential assists per game, according to NBA Advanced Stats, down from 9.4 last year. It’s up to Orlando’s coaching staff to generate more ball movement for the benefit of Banchero and everyone else.
Thus far, we’ve focused on the Magic, but what do you make of Atlanta’s slow start after a much-hyped offseason?
Kram: The biggest concern in Atlanta is health. I still believe in this team at full strength: Trae Young makes for an efficient offense all by himself, and his teammates are all good-to-great defenders who can compensate for his deficiency on that end of the floor.
Unfortunately, the Hawks have scarcely been at full strength this season, and won’t for a while longer. Dyson Daniels is the only starter who hasn’t already missed time this season, and Young is out for at least a month after spraining his right knee last week. Those absences have exposed the Hawks’ shallow roster, whose quality drops off dramatically after the top seven or eight players. (At least Mouhamed Gueye looks like a potential impact player off the bench.)
To illustrate this challenge, the Hawks’ top three players – Young, Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis – have shared the court for just 42 minutes this year. In contrast, Orlando’s Banchero-Wagner-Bane trio has 144 minutes together.
Granted, those 42 minutes haven’t gone great, as the Hawks’ rebuilt roster is clearly learning to play together, and their 25th-ranked offense is in particular trouble during Young’s long-term absence. But I think their ceiling remains high, if only they can all get healthy and gain some familiarity and continuity before the postseason.
Should LeBron James play off Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves?
Kram: Another team sitting comfortably near the top of the Western Conference standings is the Los Angeles Lakers, whose 6-2 start is a surprise given that Doncic and James have combined for four appearances. But Reaves’ breakout has buoyed the Lakers in his star teammates’ absences. In three games without Doncic, Reaves scored 51 against the Kings, 41 against the Trail Blazers and 28 points – the last featuring a buzzer-beating game-winner over Minnesota – and he’s averaging 31.1 points and 9.3 assists per game overall.
Much of the discussion around this leveling-up has centered on Reaves’ upcoming unrestricted free agency – how much money he could command next summer, and what it might mean for the Lakers’ finances and team-building. But if Reaves is anywhere near this good offensively, that also carries importance right now; after all, Doncic has a history of making deep playoff runs with a capable co-star in the backcourt.
Could Reaves play a role similar to the one Jalen Brunson and Kyrie Irving occupied in Dallas, on trips to the conference finals and Finals, respectively? James seemed like the natural No. 2 to Doncic entering this season, but as he continues to miss time with sciatica while Reaves excels, the NBA’s all-time leading scorer is in danger of being Wally Pipped.
Pelton: No matter how well Jake LaRavia has played (I’m going to tell my kids this was the Lakers’ big three), LeBron should probably start. However, I do think taking the ball out of Reaves’ hands at this point would be a mistake. Doncic (8.7 minutes per game) is first and Reaves (7.5) sixth in the league this season in time of possession, per NBA Advanced Stats.
That’s a dramatic change from last season, when James (5.4) spent slightly more time per game in possession than Reaves (5.2) despite both averaging the same number of minutes per game. Certainly, Reaves, a 37% career 3-point shooter, can be effective off the ball. But he’s now shown enough shot creation that I think it’s time for James, who’s shot 39% on 3s the past two seasons, to be primarily a play finisher rather than a creator when the Lakers’ starters are on the court.
AUSTIN REAVES HITS THE @ TISSOT BUZZER-BEATER!!!
— NBA (@ NBA) October 30, 2025
Reaves has attempted the third-most shots in the league without an assist opportunity this season, per GeniusIQ. And his 57% eFG% on those shots ranks 13th of the 49 players with at least 50 attempts, just behind Gilgeous-Alexander. (Doncic, at 63%, is third-best in this group.) Last season, James had a 52% eFG% on shots without an assist opportunity, but improved to 67% when there was a potential assist.
Kram: I agree that it would make sense for Lakers coach JJ Redick to keep giving Reaves on-ball opportunities, especially when Doncic isn’t on the court. I’ve been especially impressed by Reaves’ passing ability and penchant for drawing fouls in those situations. (Reaves ranks third among all players this season with 9.3 made free throws per game – just behind Doncic, in second place at 10.8.)
Doncic and Reaves could help lighten James’ workload to maintain his health throughout the rest of the season, once he returns to the court. But it’s also important to note that there are still few players in the NBA who deserve more shot attempts than James, even in his 40s. Last season, James made the All-NBA second team on the strength of an elite combination of volume and efficiency. He had a 30% usage rate and 60% true shooting; the only other players to hit both marks were Antetokounmpo and MVP Gilgeous-Alexander.
It’s not an easy answer, but this is ultimately a good problem for Redick to have. According to the DARKO projection system, Doncic is the third-most-valuable offensive player in the NBA on a per-possession basis, while Reaves and James are, fittingly, tied in 15th place.
Should VJ Edgecombe have surpassed Cooper Flagg as the Rookie of the Year favorite?
Pelton: I’m not worried about the development of No. 1 pick Flagg, who is playing out of position for an ill-fitting Mavericks team. Still, Flagg hasn’t been the most productive lottery pick from Duke thus far, with college teammate Kon Knueppel averaging 14 PPG on 22-of-51 3-point shooting.
That’s opened the door for a real Rookie of the Year race, and No. 3 pick Edgecombe has come bursting through like the Kool-Aid Man. Playing an incredible 39 minutes per game – no rookie has averaged more than 38.6 since LeBron in 2003-04 – Edgecombe is averaging 20.3 PPG and 5.0 RPG while shooting better than 40% from 3-point range.
Is the market right to already consider Edgecombe the Rookie of the Year favorite? Or is that too quick to dismiss Flagg, who did have 40 points and 10 assists in a pair of games during his first weekend as a pro?
Kram: I’d go so far as to say Edgecombe isn’t the only realistic contender who can steal the Rookie of the Year trophy from the presumptive favorite. Part of Flagg’s appeal was his expected all-around contribution – which would fit this race especially well because, as you’ve documented, 35 of the last 38 Rookie of the Year awards have gone to the qualified player with the highest combined per-game averages in points, rebounds and assists. (The exceptions are Amar’e Stoudemire over Yao Ming in 2003, Malcolm Brogdon over Dario Saric in 2017 and Scottie Barnes over Cade Cunningham in 2022. Ming and Saric finished second in the voting, while Cunningham finished third.)
But two weeks into the season, Flagg trails Edgecombe by a huge margin in their combined averages, and No. 11 pick Cedric Coward (the current leader in advanced stats among rookies), No. 2 pick Harper, and No. 4 pick Knueppel are close behind.
Rookie Leaders in points, rebounds and assists per game
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers | 20.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 30.3 |
| Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks | 13.8 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 23.3 |
| Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies | 15.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 22.4 |
| Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs | 14.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 21.8 |
| Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets | 14.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 21.1 |
| Jeremiah Fears, New Orleans Pelicans | 13.7 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 20.0 |
| Tre Johnson, Washington Wizards | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 17.7 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles, Toronto Raptors | 10.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 16.0 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner, Charlotte Hornets | 9.0 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 16.0 |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| Stats as of Monday, Nov. 3 morning |
Even while playing point guard, Flagg has produced only 3.0 assists per game, and his Mavericks are last in the league in offensive efficiency. Both of those numbers should improve, but if Flagg isn’t statistically dominant and his team isn’t winning, then it would be tough to vault him ahead of Edgecombe, who could finish with better numbers on a better team.
By Zach Kram, Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN