By Zach Kram | ESPN, 2025-10-22 20:30:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
当今的NBA，球队的构建通常是围绕着“争冠窗口”而非“常年争冠”。过去十年，除了波士顿凯尔特人队（他们上一次无缘季后赛是在2013-14赛季）之外，每支球队都至少缺席过一次季后赛。
在组建阵容并支付薪资时——尤其是在现行劳资协议的框架下——各支球队必须清楚自身的竞争周期，并据此制定策略。随着2025-26赛季拉开帷幕，哪些球队需要赢在当下，又有哪些球队更倾向于着眼未来呢？
我们的「赢在当下或未来」实力榜正是基于这一问题，通过一个数学模型将联盟全部30支球队定位在这个坐标轴上。
该榜单由权重相等的两部分组成。第一部分是 薪资得分 ，基于各队未来赛季的预计总薪资支出，其中当前赛季的开销占比最重。第二部分是 选秀得分 ，基于各队持有的未来首轮选秀权的价值，并考虑了可能影响选秀权实际价值的保护条款和互换权。
这两个因素不仅概括了每支球队预期的竞争时间表，也反映了其调整的灵活性。一支已经交易掉所有选秀权、并用昂贵的长期合同锁定核心阵容的球队，显然展现了赢在当下的紧迫性，并且很难在中途做出改变。
那么，让我们来分析这份榜单吧。排名第一的球队最渴望赢在当下，而排名第三十的球队则最安于着眼未来。
跳转至球队：
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
1. 克利夫兰骑士
去年排名： 第4
薪资排名： 第1
选秀权排名： 第6
骑士队在薪资得分上遥遥领先，因为他们是2025-26赛季唯一一支薪资总额超过第二奢侈税线的球队。而在选秀权方面，他们也毫不逊色，由于此前交易得到多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)，未来四年的首轮签均不受自己掌控。可以说，他们已经将“赢在当下”的策略执行到了极致。
但这并不一定能转化为实际的胜利。上赛季，菲尼克斯太阳队在这份榜单上高居“赢在当下”榜首，但他们甚至没能进入附加赛。克利夫兰在2025-26赛季的目标远高于此，在一个赛季前刚刚取得64胜并锁定东部头号种子的情况下，他们理应有更好的机会去实现抱负。但这支骑士队还从未打进过分区决赛，考虑到他们为本赛季阵容所付出的一切，如果再次功亏一篑，那无疑将是一次巨大的失望。
2. 奥兰多魔术
去年排名： 第16
薪资排名： 第4
选秀权排名： 第2
魔术队是本榜单中排名同比跃升幅度最大的球队。他们送出大量选秀权换来了德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)，并在续约弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 和杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 一年后，又为保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 提供了一份新秀顶薪续约合同。
经过多年的韬光养晦和内部挖潜，魔术队如今的核心阵容已变得异常昂贵——他们下赛季的薪资总额已经接近预计的第二奢侈税线——但这套阵容尚未取得任何成就。这是一个危险的处境。但在局势开放的东部，他们选择比预期更早地采取“赢在当下”的姿态，而这或许会收到回报：根据ESPN专家凯文·佩尔顿 (Kevin Pelton) 的预测，奥兰多本赛季的战绩预计将高居东部第二。
3. 纽约尼克斯
去年排名： 第3
薪资排名： 第2
选秀权排名： 第4
尼克斯队在2024年交易得到米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 后，便正式进入了“赢在当下”的模式，本赛季他们更是抱着“不进总决赛即失败”的心态。纽约的核心阵容薪资高昂，即便杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 在最近的续约中降薪留队。如果唐斯也签下续约合同，那么维持这套阵容的成本将更加惊人。
在选秀权方面，尼克斯将失去2027年、2029年和2031年的首轮签，并且在2028年还有一个不利的选秀权互换。理论上，尼克斯在2026年拥有富余的选秀资产，但他们从奇才队得到的那个前八顺位保护的首轮签几乎不可能兑现，届时它将转为两个次轮签。
值得注意的是，本榜单前三名均为东部球队，这反映出在这片实力相对较弱且饱受伤病困扰的分区，其余的竞争者们都看到了一个冲击总决赛的良机。
4. 明尼苏达森林狼
去年排名： 第2
薪资排名： 第7
选秀权排名： 第3
森林狼在本榜单的总体排名略有下滑，但这支连续两年止步分区决赛的球队仍是西部最需要“赢在当下”的队伍。续约朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle) 和纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 后，明尼苏达的核心阵容基本锁定，而在未来六年里，他们仅在2028年拥有自己的首轮签。
鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 交易的持续成本以及换来罗伯·迪林厄姆 (Rob Dillingham) 的代价，限制了森林狼在选秀方面的灵活性。在2024年选秀夜，明尼苏达用2031年的首轮签和2030年的选秀权互换权换来了8号签，但迪林厄姆新秀赛季场均仅得4.5分，在季后赛中更是鲜有出场机会。随着首发控卫迈克·康利 (Mike Conley) 年事已高，森林狼迫切需要迪林厄姆在他的二年级赛季迎来爆发——这既是为了帮助球队赢在当下，也是为了证明他们为得到他所付出的沉重代价是值得的。
5. 菲尼克斯太阳
去年排名： 第1
薪资排名： 第13
选秀权排名： 第1
上赛季，菲尼克斯在薪资得分和选秀得分上均排名第一，但随后这支所谓的争冠球队经历了突发性的阵容崩盘。太阳队交易了凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，裁掉并使用延伸条款处理了布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal) 的合同，使球队薪资降至了两档奢侈税线以下。如果不是交易得到中锋马克·威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams) 并为德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 提供了一份2028-29赛季才生效的续约合同，他们在榜单上的排名还会进一步下滑。
即便如此，他们仍然是榜单中首支在2025-26赛季没有现实争冠希望的球队。他们交易了太多的选秀权，以至于直到2032年才能掌控自己的首轮签。他们无法赢在当下，也未能为赢得未来做好准备。
6. 丹佛掘金
去年排名： 第7
薪资排名： 第8
选秀权排名： 第8
目前，丹佛是唯一一支交易掉2032年首轮签的球队，这是他们用小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 换来薪水更低（且可能更出色）的卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cameron Johnson) 的代价。由于掘金还欠俄克拉荷马城雷霆队2027年和2029年的前五顺位保护签，他们在赛季中期交易中能够送出的选秀权补偿也受到了限制。
尽管甩掉波特的薪水在短期内降低了掘金的阵容成本，但尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)、贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray)、阿隆·戈登 (Aaron Gordon) 和克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun) 都签有长期合同，考虑到球队老板的行事风格，这可能会限制球队的财务操作空间。只要约基奇处于巅峰期，掘金就是一支“赢在当下”的球队，并且他们正走在一条有望赢得队史第二座总冠军的道路上。
7. 波士顿凯尔特人
去年排名： 第5
薪资排名： 第5
选秀权排名： 第11
通过在夏天交易走克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 和朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)，凯尔特人成功规避了因打造昂贵阵容而可能面临的最严厉的财务惩罚。但当他们承诺在未来四年向杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 和杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 支付合计4.79亿美元的薪水时，他们在这份榜单上的排名就不会掉得太低。这依然是一支希望在短期内取胜的球队——只是随着塔图姆跟腱撕裂后的康复，这个计划或许要推迟一年。
8. 达拉斯独行侠
去年排名： 第12
薪资排名： 第6
选秀权排名： 第10
上赛季交易走卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 后，独行侠总经理尼科·哈里森 (Nico Harrison) 表示，他设想球队的夺冠时间表是三到四年。这种心态也反映在了本次排名中，尽管送走了一位巅峰期的超级巨星，达拉斯却更加朝着“赢在当下”的方向迈进。
可以说，独行侠的最佳策略或许是掉转方向，围绕18岁的库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 和21岁的德雷克·莱夫利二世 (Dereck Lively II) 进行重建。但自上赛季以来，他们续约了凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving)、丹尼尔·加福德 (Daniel Gafford) 和P.J.·华盛顿 (P.J. Washington)，将这套全新的、以老将为主的核心阵容锁定了至少两个赛季。
9. 密尔沃基雄鹿
去年排名： 第6
薪资排名： 第17
选秀权排名： 第5
雄鹿队的紧迫感近乎关乎生死存亡，他们不断进行高风险操作——最引人注目的就是使用延伸条款处理达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 的剩余薪水，以便签下迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner)——希望以此安抚扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 那颗可能蠢蠢欲动的心。
这些交易能否帮助密尔沃基四年来首次突破季后赛首轮还有待观察。但由于直到2031年都无法掌控自己的首轮签，无论阿德托昆博是否开心，雄鹿都没有任何理由踩下刹车、改变方向。
10. 洛杉矶快船
去年排名： 第9
薪资排名： 第23
选秀权排名： 第6
曾几何时，挥金如土的快船是这份榜单前列的常客。但如今，伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 是2026-27赛季后唯一身背保障合同的快船球员，因此球队的薪资得分排在联盟后三分之一。
不过，快船仍在努力摆脱沉重的选秀权负担，由于涉及保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden) 的交易，他们未来四年的首轮签都不在自己手中。尽管洛杉矶目前还拥有2030、2031和2032年的首轮签，但如果总裁亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 在“Aspiration调查”结束后决定施以重罚，这些选秀权也可能被摆上砧板。
11. 金州勇士
去年排名： 第15
薪资排名： 第10
选秀权排名： 第14
理论上，勇士队应该是一支极度追求“赢在当下”的球队，毕竟他们最重要的球员分别是39岁的艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford)、37岁的斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)、36岁的吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 和35岁的德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green)。但实际上，除了一个2030年的前20顺位保护签外，他们保留了未来七年所有自己的选秀权。上赛季他们仅用一个首轮签（最终是2025年选秀的第20顺位）就换来了巴特勒，这对勇士来说是一次巨大的胜利。
如果勇士队真如预测和高阶数据所显示的那样强大，并希望向另一座总冠军发起冲击，那么他们拥有在赛季中期进行重磅交易、实现“赢在当下”的灵活性。
12. 费城76人
去年排名： 第10
薪资排名： 第9
选秀权排名： 第15
76人队正徘徊于两条道路之间。一条是“赢在当下”之路，核心是乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 和保罗·乔治 (Paul George)，两人都已年过三十，本赛季合计薪水超过1亿美元。但由于两位老将的健康状况都不确定，76人也可能转向以年轻后卫泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)、贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 和VJ·埃吉科姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 为中心的未来战略。
上赛季24胜58负的战绩表明，现在并非总经理达里尔·莫雷 (Daryl Morey) 采取任何孤注一掷行动的合适时机，这也解释了为何费城仍手握数枚未来的选秀权。但只要恩比德还在阵中，并且理论上能保持完全健康，76人就必须至少考虑如何最大化利用他剩余的争冠窗口。
13. 新奥尔良鹈鹕
去年排名： 第19
薪资排名： 第14
选秀权排名： 第12
在交易掉一个2026年的无保护首轮签，并接手乔丹·普尔 (Jordan Poole) 剩下两年6590万美元的合同后，新奥尔良在本榜单的排名有所上升。但这支鹈鹕队准备好在本赛季赢球了吗？他们在2023-24赛季打入了季后赛，但在伤病缠身的2024-25赛季输掉了61场比赛，并且他们本赛季的预测胜场数在西部也是最低之一。上个月，新任篮球运营总裁乔·杜马斯 (Joe Dumars) 表示，设定一个“不进季后赛即失败”的目标是“短视的”。
14. 洛杉矶湖人
去年排名： 第8
薪资排名： 第24
选秀权排名： 第9
想知道为什么勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 在夏天暗示他对湖人队的方向感到不满吗？看看这个排名就知道了，他的球队正好处在“赢在当下或未来”榜单的正中间。年过四十的詹姆斯感受到了赢在当下的紧迫性。但湖人队在拥有比詹姆斯年轻14岁的东契奇之后，正在采取一种更长远的策略。
除了在八月份签下顶薪续约合同的东契奇，其他所有预计的首发球员都可以在明年夏天进入自由市场，而且湖人队在2026-27赛季后的薪资表完全是空的。湖人拥有充足的灵活性，可以在未来几个赛季围绕他们的新星建队。值得注意的是，2027年的自由球员市场可能会星光熠熠，包括阿德托昆博、约基奇、唐斯、米切尔以及老朋友安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 等众多球星。
15. 多伦多猛龙
去年排名： 第20
薪资排名： 第11
选秀权排名： 并列第16
猛龙队的选秀权清单堪称联盟中最“无聊”的：他们掌控着自己未来七年所有的首轮签，同时也没有任何其他球队的选秀权。因此，如果他们想在一个实力偏弱的东部联盟中推动赢球进程——鉴于他们已经开出了多份大额薪水合同，他们似乎确实有此意向——猛龙拥有足够的资产来吸引交易伙伴。
16. 印第安纳步行者
去年排名： 第11
薪资排名： 第15
选秀权排名： 并列第16
在泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 遭遇跟腱撕裂后，印第安纳在夏天基本保持沉寂，将本赛季视为一个过渡年，因此处在榜单中游是一个不错的位置。步行者将如何取代效力多年的中锋迈尔斯·特纳仍有待观察，他们还必须在明年夏天处理本内迪克特·马图林 (Bennedict Mathurin) 的受限制自由球员问题，但除了哈利伯顿和帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 外，球队今年或明年没有其他球员的年薪超过2000万美元。
与多伦多一样，印第安纳在未来七年内没有交易入或交易出任何首轮选秀权。
17. 迈阿密热火
去年排名： 第13
薪资排名： 第22
选秀权排名： 第13
泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro) 和诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 的潜在续约问题尚待解决，但就目前而言，热火队拥有充足的灵活性，未来的承诺也不多。在巴特勒时代不光彩地结束后不到一年，他们仍在寻找下一个大胆的前进方向，这合情合理。
无论是在自由市场上，还是通过交易换取选秀权——迈阿密只欠夏洛特一个源于那笔灾难性的特里·罗齐尔 (Terry Rozier) 交易的2027年乐透保护首轮签——热火将一如既往地处在每一条球星交易流言的风口浪尖。
18. 圣安东尼奥马刺
去年排名： 第28
薪资排名： 第20
选秀权排名： 第21
在交易并续约达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 后，圣安东尼奥的排名跃升了10位，但他们仍处于围绕维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 建立争冠球队的早期阶段。马刺队还手握一个来自老鹰队的额外选秀权，外加2026、2028、2030和2031年的有利互换权——这意味着即使在文班亚马的巅峰期，当他们自己的选秀顺位可能每年都落在20多位时，他们仍有可能获得高价值的选秀权。
19. 亚特兰大老鹰
去年排名： 第14
薪资排名： 第21
选秀权排名： 第20
老鹰队在夏天完成了一项巧妙的操作，在提升球队实力成为一匹黑马级竞争者的同时，还获得了未来的阵容灵活性。这得感谢鹈鹕队，他们在过去一年与亚特兰大的两笔交易——涉及德章泰·穆雷 (Dejounte Murray) 和他们用来选中德里克·奎因 (Derik Queen) 的选秀权——帮助老鹰队挽救了首次穆雷交易所造成的困局，那笔交易让他们至今仍欠马刺队多个选秀权。
特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 的潜在续约迫在眉睫，如果达成，将会把老鹰队重新推高在本榜单的排名。但突然之间，“赢在当下”的潜力和“着眼未来”的资产相结合，让亚特兰大拥有了东部最令人羡慕的长期前景之一。
20. 底特律活塞
去年排名： 第21
薪资排名： 第26
选秀权排名： 并列第16
底特律没有对上赛季的成功做出过度反应，他们在夏天保持了现有路线，在「赢在当下或未来」榜单上的排名也仅是略微上升。但这种情况随时可能改变；如果爵士队决定交易他们的高薪前锋劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen)，活塞将是一个绝佳的下家。但目前，活塞掌控着自己未来所有的首轮签，除了建队基石凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 之外，没有任何重大的财务承诺。耐心是一种美德。
21. 休斯顿火箭
去年排名： 第23
薪资排名： 第12
选秀权排名： 第24
在一个日益由财务决策主导的时代，火箭队在长期规划方面做得很好；例如，凯文·杜兰特、阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun) 和小贾巴里·史密斯 (Jabari Smith Jr.) 都在有资格续约时签下了非顶薪合同。休斯顿的阵容可能不会长期保持在可负担的价位上。阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 明年夏天可能值得一份全额顶薪，但火箭队处在一个有利的位置，能够将这份新合同与现有承诺相容。
与此同时，火箭队可能在选秀中淘到金矿，因为他们持有太阳队2027年和2029年的无保护选秀权，以及2027年与篮网队的选秀互换权。如果不是榜单后面还有另一支球队，休斯顿将是NBA中在“当下竞争”与“储备未来资本”之间平衡得最好的球队，他们正努力在未来十年甚至更长时间里打造一支常胜之师。
22. 波特兰开拓者
去年排名： 第25
薪资排名： 第16
选秀权排名： 第22
经过短暂的重建，波特兰正迈出重返当下竞争行列的第一步。开拓者在夏天引进了两名老将后卫——霍勒迪和受伤的利拉德——并在本周慷慨地为图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara) 和谢登·夏普 (Shaedon Sharpe) 提供了续约合同。
但开拓者仍坚定地走在一条着眼未来的时间线上。主要得益于利拉德的交易，他们手握一些额外的选秀权和互换权。除了卡马拉和夏普，霍勒迪和杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 是队中仅有的在未来赛季年薪超过1440万美元的球员。冉冉升起的侧翼球员德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 的合同还剩三年，总额3930万美元，是联盟中最具性价比的合同之一。
23. 萨克拉门托国王
去年排名： 第17
薪资排名： 第19
选秀权排名： 第23
在交易福克斯之后，国王队在这份榜单上的排名没有进一步下滑，这多少有些令人意外。但萨克拉门托在那笔三方交易中的部分回报是侧翼球员扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine)（以及他昂贵的合同），而非额外的选秀权。在拥有拉文、多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis)、马利克·蒙克 (Malik Monk) 和新控卫丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schroder) 之后，这仍然是一支以老将为主的球队——这与此排名所暗示的“着眼未来”理念，以及国王队决定送走他们的当家后卫的做法，并不完全契合。
24. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆
去年排名： 第27
薪资排名： 第3
选秀权排名： 第29
上赛季雷霆队的薪资得分排名第21位，但在续约了谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)、杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 之后，他们在这项排名中飙升至第三。然而，俄克拉荷马城仍然手握来自火箭、快船、爵士、76人、掘金、马刺和独行侠等众多球队的大量未来选秀权和互换权，这使得卫冕冠军在总榜单上仍然排名如此靠后。
换句话说，在2025-26赛季的冠军争夺者中，雷霆是最不需要赢在当下的球队。他们的未来是如此光明，以至于他们当前敞开的争冠窗口仿佛是一个额外的奖励，一份比预期更早到来的奢侈礼物。
25. 芝加哥公牛
去年排名： 第22
薪资排名： 第27
选秀权排名： 第19
交易拉文之后，芝加哥在这份榜单上的薪资得分排名倒数第四，仅高于联盟中最差的三支球队。公牛队拥有辉煌的历史和巨大的市场，本赛季结束后他们将拥有巨额的薪金空间。他们能否抓住这个机会，吸引能够让这支中游球队重返辉煌岁月的球星呢？
26. 孟菲斯灰熊
去年排名： 第18
薪资排名： 第18
选秀权排名： 第26
灰熊队处在一个奇特的境地。一方面，他们上赛季赢了48场比赛，过去五个赛季中有四个赛季打入季后赛，并且依然由全明星球员贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 和小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.) 领衔。另一方面，在完成贝恩的交易后，灰熊队手握大量选秀权，至少从客观数据来看，他们像是联盟中最倾向于“着眼未来”的球队之一。
解决这种矛盾可能很棘手；灰熊队依然可以依靠莫兰特和杰克逊赢球，而榜单上排在他们之后的所有球队都有可能成为联盟战绩最差的队伍。但棘手并不一定是坏事。当犹豫不决时，拥有大量未来选秀权总比没有要好。
27. 夏洛特黄蜂
去年排名： 第24
薪资排名： 第25
选秀权排名： 第27
在这份榜单中，前26名球队与后4名之间存在巨大差距，这很合理，因为最后四支球队也正是2025-26赛季预测战绩最差的四支队伍。“着眼未来”的标签非常适合他们。
这些球队中目前实力最强的是夏洛特，他们一直在缓慢地积累选秀资产，不是通过一笔重磅交易换回大量选秀权，而是一次一个地积累：交易罗齐尔、交易P.J.·华盛顿、交易马克·威廉姆斯，以及作为处理优素福·努尔基奇 (Jusuf Nurkic) 合同的“垃圾场”。
28. 华盛顿奇才
去年排名： 第26
薪资排名： 第30
选秀权排名： 第25
奇才队拥有的选秀资产远不及联盟中其他垫底球队。如果CJ·麦科勒姆 (CJ McCollum) 和克里斯·米德尔顿 (Khris Middleton) 开季状态火热并在交易截止日前被换回惊人的回报，情况可能会有所改变，但华盛顿很可能在布拉德利·比尔的合同几乎无法交易时就错失了良机。犹他爵士和布鲁克林篮网在交易他们的球星时获得了大量的选秀权，而奇才队从菲尼克斯换回比尔的交易中，主要得到的只是次轮签和选秀互换权。
29. 犹他爵士
去年排名： 第29
薪资排名： 第28
选秀权排名： 第28
我计算这份榜单已经四年了，犹他每次都排在第29或第30位。而且由于犹他所有额外的选秀资产都集中在2027年及以后——事实上，他们在2026年选秀中还欠俄克拉荷马城一个前八顺位保护的选秀权——他们短期内不太可能在榜单上有任何提升。就像在西部联盟的排名一样，爵士队将继续在底部徘徊一段时间。
30. 布鲁克林篮网
去年排名： 第30
薪资排名： 第29
选秀权排名： 第30
篮网队在未来几年拥有来自尼克斯、76人和掘金的额外首轮签，再加上根据复杂的多方交易结果可能获得的其他球队选秀权，他们无疑是拥有最多选秀资产的球队。尽管他们在2027年欠休斯顿一个极具价值的选秀互换权，但凭借着海量的选秀权储备，篮网仍然是联盟中最着眼于未来的球队。
篮网队会将下个赛季视为开始赢球的时机，以免将一个高顺位选秀权送给休斯顿，还是会坚持现有路线，将那个互换权视为沉没成本，就像他们在2010年代中期送给波士顿的那些选秀权一样？这个问题的答案将决定篮网的近期未来。而目前，他们正指望一大批新秀在2025-26赛季为他们吞下一大堆败仗。
点击查看原文：NBA Now or Later rankings 2025-26: Who needs to win now?
NBA Now or Later rankings 2025-26: Who needs to win now?
The modern NBA is typically a league built around competitive windows rather than perennial contention. Every team has missed the playoffs at least once in the past decade, except for the Boston Celtics (who last missed in 2013-14).
As they build and pay their rosters – especially under the current collective bargaining agreement – teams must understand their competitive cycles and strategize accordingly. As the 2025-26 season begins, which teams need to win now, and which would prefer to compete later instead?
It’s that question that informs our Now or Later rankings, which use a mathematical model to place all 30 teams along that spectrum.
The Now or Later rankings are made up of two parts with equal weight. The first is money score, based on each team’s projected total payments across upcoming seasons, with spending for the current season counting the most. The second is draft score, based on the value of the future first-round draft picks that each team holds, factoring in the protections and swaps that affect what each pick might be worth.
Those two factors summarize not just each team’s anticipated competitive time frame, but its flexibility to adjust, as well. An organization that has already traded all its picks and locked in its core to expensive long-term deals is showing clear win-now urgency and can’t easily make changes midstream.
So, let’s analyze the rankings, where the first-place team is the most desperate to win now and the 30th-place franchise is the most content to win later.
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Last year: 4th
Money rank: 1st
Draft rank: 6th
The Cavaliers lead the league in money score by a huge margin because they’re the only team above the second apron in 2025-26. And they’re no slouches in the draft department, either, because they don’t control any of their next four first-round picks as a result of the Donovan Mitchell trade. They basically couldn’t be more of a win-now team if they tried.
That won’t necessarily translate into actual wins. Last season, the Phoenix Suns were the most win-now team by these rankings, and they didn’t even qualify for the play-in tournament. Cleveland has much higher ambitions in 2025-26 and should have a better chance of fulfilling them one season after winning 64 games and the East’s No. 1 seed. But these Cavaliers haven’t reached the conference finals yet, and falling short again would be an undeniable disappointment given everything they’ve invested in this season’s team.
2. Orlando Magic
Last year: 16th
Money rank: 4th
Draft rank: 2nd
The Magic experienced the largest year-to-year jump up these rankings of any team. They traded a major pick haul for Desmond Bane and gave Paolo Banchero a max rookie extension a year after giving Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs large extensions of their own.
After years of treading water and slowly building from within, the Magic now have a very expensive core – they’re already right around the projected second apron line for next season – that hasn’t accomplished anything yet. That’s a dangerous position to occupy. But in the wide-open East, they chose to adopt a win-now posture sooner than expected, and it might pay off: Orlando has the second-best projected record in the East this season, according to ESPN’s Kevin Pelton.
3. New York Knicks
Last year: 3rd
Money rank: 2nd
Draft rank: 4th
The Knicks entered firm win-now territory in 2024, when they traded for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, and they’re taking a Finals-or-bust mindset into this season. New York has an expensive core, even with Jalen Brunson taking a discount on his recent extension, and keeping that group could grow even pricier if Towns signs an extension of his own.
On the draft side, the Knicks will lose their first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2031, and they have an unfavorable swap in 2028. Technically, the Knicks have surplus draft capital in 2026, but the top-eight-protected pick they’re owed from the Wizards will almost definitely not convey, at which point it will turn into a pair of second-rounders instead.
Notably, the top three teams in these rankings play in the East, reflecting how the remaining contenders in the weaker, injury-ravaged conference see an opportunity to reach the Finals.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
Last year: 2nd
Money rank: 7th
Draft rank: 3rd
The Timberwolves fell slightly in these rankings overall, but the team that has lost in consecutive conference finals rates as the most win-now group in the West. Minnesota is mostly locked into its current core after extending Julius Randle and Naz Reid, and 2028 is the only time in the next six years that it controls its own pick.
The continuing cost of the Rudy Gobert trade and the price of the Rob Dillingham trade hamper the Timberwolves’ draft flexibility. On draft night in 2024, Minnesota traded its 2031 first-rounder and swap rights in 2030 in exchange for the No. 8 pick, but Dillingham averaged just 4.5 points per game as a rookie and scarcely appeared in the playoffs. With starting point guard Mike Conley aging, the Timberwolves need Dillingham to break out in his sophomore season – both to help the team win now, and to justify the onerous cost they paid to acquire him.
5. Phoenix Suns
Last year: 1st
Money rank: 13th
Draft rank: 1st
Phoenix ranked first in both money score and draft score last season before a rapid unscheduled disassembly of a putative championship contender. The Suns traded Kevin Durant, waived-and-stretched Bradley Beal and ducked under both cap aprons. They would have fallen further in these rankings if they hadn’t traded for center Mark Williams or given Devin Booker an extension that doesn’t kick in until 2028-29.
As it stands, though, they’re still the first team in these rankings that doesn’t have a realistic path to contention in 2025-26. They’ve traded so many of their picks that they don’t control their own first-rounder until 2032. They can’t win now – but they aren’t positioned to win later, either.
6. Denver Nuggets
Last year: 7th
Money rank: 8th
Draft rank: 8th
At the moment, Denver is the only team that has traded its 2032 first-round pick, which was the cost to exchange Michael Porter Jr. for the lower-salaried (and possibly better) Cameron Johnson. Because the Nuggets also owe top-five-protected picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2027 and 2029, they’re limited in the draft compensation they can ship out in midseason trades.
Although shedding Porter’s salary made Denver’s roster a bit less expensive in the short term, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are all signed to long-term deals that could limit the team’s financial maneuverability, given ownership’s tendencies. The Nuggets are a win-now team as long as they have Jokic in his prime, and they’re on a conceivable path to winning his second title.
7. Boston Celtics
Last year: 5th
Money rank: 5th
Draft rank: 11th
By trading Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday over the summer, the Celtics wiggled their way out of the most punitive financial penalties they could have faced for building such an expensive roster. But they could fall only so far in these rankings when they’re committed to paying Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown $479 million combined over the next four years. This is still a team that wants to win in the near future – just, perhaps, with a one-year delay as Tatum recovers from a torn Achilles.
8. Dallas Mavericks
Last year: 12th
Money rank: 6th
Draft rank: 10th
After trading Luka Doncic last season, Mavericks GM Nico Harrison said he envisioned a three- to four-year time frame for his team to win a championship. That mindset is reflected in this ranking, as Dallas has moved more in a win-now direction despite dealing a superstar in his prime.
The Mavericks would arguably be best-suited to pivot and build around 18-year-old Cooper Flagg and 21-year-old Dereck Lively II. But since last season, they’ve extended Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, locking every member of their new, veteran-heavy core into place for at least two more seasons.
9. Milwaukee Bucks
Last year: 6th
Money rank: 17th
Draft rank: 5th
The Bucks’ urgency is almost existential, as they continue to make risky moves – most notably, stretching Damian Lillard’s remaining salary to be able to sign Myles Turner – with the hope of appeasing Giannis Antetokounmpo and his potentially wandering eye.
Whether those transactions will help Milwaukee advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time in four years remains to be seen. But with no control of their first-round pick until 2031, the Bucks don’t have any reason to step on the brakes and change direction, whether Antetokounmpo is happy or not.
10. LA Clippers
Last year: 9th
Money rank: 23rd
Draft rank: 6th
At one point, the spendthrift Clippers were mainstays near the top of these rankings. But now Ivica Zubac is the only Clipper owed any guaranteed money after 2026-27, so the team ranks in the bottom third of the league in money score.
The Clippers are still working their way out from under a large draft burden, though, as they don’t control any of their next four first-round picks because of the Paul George and James Harden trades. And although LA does have its 2030, 2031 and 2032 first-rounders for now, those picks could be on the chopping block if commissioner Adam Silver decides to enact harsh penalties at the conclusion of the Aspiration investigation.
11. Golden State Warriors
Last year: 15th
Money rank: 10th
Draft rank: 14th
In theory, the Warriors should be an intensely win-now team, given that their most important players are 39-year-old Al Horford, 37-year-old Stephen Curry, 36-year-old Jimmy Butler III and 35-year-old Draymond Green. But in practice, they still have all of their own picks over the next seven seasons, with the exception of a top-20-protected selection in 2030. The fact that they needed to trade only a single first-round pick for Butler last season (which landed at 20th overall in the 2025 draft) was a big win for the Warriors.
Golden State has the flexibility to make a splashy win-now move midseason if it’s as good as the projections and advanced stats think and wants to make a real run at another title.
12. Philadelphia 76ers
Last year: 10th
Money rank: 9th
Draft rank: 15th
The 76ers are stuck between two paths. The win-now route centers on Joel Embiid and Paul George, who are both in their 30s and due more than $100 million combined this season. But with the health of both veterans uncertain, the 76ers could instead pivot to a future-oriented strategy centered on young guards Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and VJ Edgecombe.
Last season’s 24-58 record suggests this isn’t the right time for any all-in moves from GM Daryl Morey, which might explain why Philadelphia still has several future picks in its cupboard. But as long as Embiid is on the roster and even theoretically at full strength, the 76ers have to at least consider trying to maximize his remaining competitive window.
13. New Orleans Pelicans
Last year: 19th
Money rank: 14th
Draft rank: 12th
New Orleans rose in these rankings after trading an unprotected 2026 first-rounder and adding the two years and $65.9 million remaining on Jordan Poole’s contract. But are the Pelicans ready to win this season? They reached the playoffs in 2023-24 but lost 61 games in an admittedly injury-riddled 2024-25 campaign, and they have one of the West’s lowest over/under totals entering this season. Last month, new head of basketball operations Joe Dumars said a playoffs-or-bust goal would be “shortsighted.”
14. Los Angeles Lakers
Last year: 8th
Money rank: 24th
Draft rank: 9th
Want to know why LeBron James hinted at his discontent with the Lakers’ direction over the summer? Just look at this placement, as his team is right in the middle of the Now or Later rankings. In his 40s, James feels the urgency to win now. But the Lakers are taking a longer approach with Doncic – 14 years James’ junior – in the fold.
Other than Doncic, who signed a max extension in August, every other projected starter can enter free agency next summer, and the Lakers’ cap sheet is entirely clean after 2026-27. The Lakers have ample flexibility to build around their new star in the seasons to come. Notably, the 2027 free agent class could include such stars as Antetokounmpo, Jokic, Towns, Mitchell and old friend Anthony Davis, among many others.
15. Toronto Raptors
Last year: 20th
Money rank: 11th
Draft rank: T-16th
The Raptors are tied for the most boring draft list in the league: They control all of their own first-round picks for the next seven years, and they don’t control anyone else’s. So, if they want to support a winning push in a weak Eastern Conference – and it seems like they do, given all the big salaries they’ve handed out – the Raptors have the assets to incentivize a trade partner.
16. Indiana Pacers
Last year: 11th
Money rank: 15th
Draft rank: T-16th
The middle is a good place to reside during a gap year, as Indiana mostly sat out the summer following Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tear. It remains to be seen how the Pacers replace longtime center Myles Turner, and they’ll have to navigate Bennedict Mathurin’s restricted free agency next summer, but only Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are making more than $20 million this year or next.
Like Toronto, Indiana hasn’t traded for or away any first-round picks for the next seven years.
17. Miami Heat
Last year: 13th
Money rank: 22nd
Draft rank: 13th
Potential extensions for Tyler Herro and Norman Powell await, but for now, the Heat have plenty of flexibility and not many commitments ahead of them. Less than a year after the ignominious end of the Butler era, it makes sense that they would still be searching for their next bold direction.
Whether in free agency or with a trade for picks – Miami owes only a lottery-protected 2027 first to Charlotte, stemming from the disastrous Terry Rozier trade – the Heat will, as always, be at the forefront of every star transaction rumor.
18. San Antonio Spurs
Last year: 28th
Money rank: 20th
Draft rank: 21st
San Antonio leaped up 10 spots after it traded for and extended De’Aaron Fox, but it’s still in the early stages of building a contender around Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs have an extra pick incoming from the Hawks, plus favorable swaps in 2026, 2028, 2030 and 2031 – meaning they could keep getting rewarding picks even when Wembanyama is in his prime and their own pick presumably lands in the late 20s each year.
19. Atlanta Hawks
Last year: 14th
Money rank: 21st
Draft rank: 20th
The Hawks pulled off a nifty trick over the summer by simultaneously improving into a sleeper contender and gaining future roster flexibility. Thank goodness for the Pelicans, whose two trades with Atlanta over the past year – for Dejounte Murray and the draft pick they used on Derik Queen – have helped the Hawks salvage the wreck of the first Murray trade, from which they still owe multiple picks to the Spurs.
A potential Trae Young extension looms, and that would push the Hawks back up these rankings if it materializes. But, all of a sudden, the combination of win-now potential and win-later assets gives Atlanta one of the most enviable long-term outlooks in the East.
20. Detroit Pistons
Last year: 21st
Money rank: 26th
Draft rank: T-16th
Detroit didn’t overreact to last season’s success, staying the course over the summer and barely nudging up the Now or Later rankings. But that could change at any time; the team would be an excellent fit for Lauri Markkanen if the Jazz decide to trade their big-money forward. But at the moment, the Pistons control all of their future firsts and don’t have any large financial commitments beyond franchise cornerstone Cade Cunningham. Patience is a virtue.
21. Houston Rockets
Last year: 23rd
Money rank: 12th
Draft rank: 24th
In an era increasingly defined by financial decisions, the Rockets have done well to navigate their long-term planning; for instance, Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. all signed sub-max extensions when they were eligible. Houston’s roster might not remain on affordable deals for long. Amen Thompson might be worth the full max next summer, but the Rockets are well-positioned to accommodate that new contract alongside their existing commitments.
Meanwhile, the Rockets could strike gold in the draft, as they hold the Suns’ unprotected picks in 2027 and 2029 and swap rights with the Nets in 2027. If not for one other team later in these rankings, Houston would stand out as the NBA team doing the best job straddling the line between competing in the present and preserving capital for the future as it attempts to build a perennial winner for the next decade and beyond.
22. Portland Trail Blazers
Last year: 25th
Money rank: 16th
Draft rank: 22nd
After a short rebuild, Portland is taking its first steps toward present-day contention. The Trail Blazers added a pair of veteran guards – Holiday and the injured Lillard – over the summer, and they splurged on extensions for Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe this week.
But the Trail Blazers are still firmly on a future-oriented timeline. They have a few extra picks and swaps, thanks largely to the Lillard trade, and other than Camara and Sharpe, Holiday and Jerami Grant are their only players scheduled to earn more than $14.4 million in any upcoming season. Rising wing Deni Avdija, whose contract includes three more years for $39.3 million total, is signed to one of the best bargain deals in the league.
23. Sacramento Kings
Last year: 17th
Money rank: 19th
Draft rank: 23rd
It’s somewhat surprising that the Kings didn’t tumble further down these rankings after the Fox trade, but part of Sacramento’s return in that three-team deal was wing Zach LaVine (and his pricey contract) rather than extra picks. Between LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk and new point guard Dennis Schroder, this is still a veteran-heavy team – which doesn’t really fit the win-later ethos suggested by this ranking, or the Kings’ decision to move on from their franchise guard.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder
Last year: 27th
Money rank: 3rd
Draft rank: 29th
The Thunder ranked 21st in money score last season, then rocketed up to third in that category by extending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Yet Oklahoma City is still owed so many future picks and swaps from a variety of teams – the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, 76ers, Nuggets, Spurs and Mavericks – that the defending champions are still this far down the overall rankings.
Put another way, among title contenders in 2025-26, the Thunder are the team that least needs to win now. Their future is so bright that it’s almost as if their presently wide-open championship window is a bonus, a luxury gift that arrived earlier than expected.
25. Chicago Bulls
Last year: 22nd
Money rank: 27th
Draft rank: 19th
After trading LaVine, Chicago has the fourth-lowest money score in these rankings, ahead of only the three worst teams in the league. The Bulls have a rich history and play in a big market, and they’ll have oodles of cap space after this season. Can they capitalize on that opportunity and attract stars who can return a middling franchise to its glory days?
26. Memphis Grizzlies
Last year: 18th
Money rank: 18th
Draft rank: 26th
The Grizzlies are in a strange place. On the one hand, they won 48 games last season and have reached the playoffs in four of the past five seasons, and All-Stars Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. still lead the way. On the other hand, the Grizzlies are flush with draft picks following the Bane trade, and at least by the objective numbers, they look like one of the most win-later teams in the league.
Resolving that tension could be tricky; the Grizzlies still can win with Morant and Jackson, while every team behind them in these rankings is a candidate to finish with the worst record in the league. But tricky isn’t bad, necessarily. When in doubt, it’s better to have a lot of future draft picks than not.
27. Charlotte Hornets
Last year: 24th
Money rank: 25th
Draft rank: 27th
There’s a big gap between the top 26 teams and the bottom four in these rankings, which makes sense, as the last four teams are also the four teams with the worst win projections in 2025-26. The win-later label fits.
The best of those teams in the present is Charlotte, which has slowly been building up its draft stash, not with one blockbuster deal that returns a boatload of picks but by acquiring one pick at a time: for Rozier, for P.J. Washington, for Mark Williams and for serving as a dumping ground for Jusuf Nurkic’s contract.
28. Washington Wizards
Last year: 26th
Money rank: 30th
Draft rank: 25th
The Wizards have nowhere near the draft capital of the other worst teams in the league. That could change if CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton start hot and are flipped for surprising returns at the deadline, but Washington likely missed its chance when Bradley Beal’s contract was nearly untradable. The Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets acquired massive pick packages when they dealt their stars, whereas the Wizards largely landed second-round picks and swaps from Phoenix for Beal.
29. Utah Jazz
Last year: 29th
Money rank: 28th
Draft rank: 28th
I’ve been calculating these rankings for four years now, and Utah has ranked 29th or 30th every time. And because all of Utah’s extra draft capital is concentrated in 2027 and beyond – in fact, it owes a top-eight-protected pick to Oklahoma City in the 2026 draft – it’s unlikely to move any higher up the rankings anytime soon. Much like in the Western Conference standings, the Jazz will continue to be stuck at the bottom for a while.
30. Brooklyn Nets
Last year: 30th
Money rank: 29th
Draft rank: 30th
With extra first-round picks in the years to come from the Knicks, 76ers and Nuggets, plus other teams depending on how complicated multiteam swaps play out, the Nets have by far the most draft capital of any team. Even though they owe a juicy swap to Houston in 2027, the Nets still rank as the league’s most win-later team on the strength of that war chest of picks.
Will the Nets view next season as the time to start winning, lest they send a top pick to Houston, or will they stay the course and view that swap as a sunk cost, much as they did the picks they sent to Boston in the mid-2010s? The answer to that question will dictate the near-term future for the Nets, who, for now, are depending on a whole lot of rookies to lead them to a whole lot of losses in 2025-26.
By Zach Kram | ESPN, via ESPN