By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-10-21 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
又到了一年中我最喜欢的时刻——我可以信誓旦旦地给出我的预测，并假装这篇文章在6个月后就会被人遗忘。本赛季，有几位球员几乎锁定了某些奖项，所以我至少可以指望他们给我挽回点颜面——希望如此。如果我的预测全都落空，我也会像亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 那样耸耸肩，然后说一句：“这就是联盟的实力均衡嘛。”
让我们从重头戏开始。
NBA 总冠军：丹佛掘金
尽管俄克拉荷马城雷霆队一个潜在的王朝正在崛起，但我还是选择丹佛掘金队在四年内第二次举起老拉里（奥布莱恩杯）。随着布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown)、约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯 (Jonas Valanciunas) 和小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 的加盟，掘金队似乎已经解决了他们的阵容深度问题，同时还送走了一位教练和一位总经理，他们之间的相互厌恶程度，堪比尼科对卢卡的厌恶。虽然现在还为时尚早，但大卫·阿德尔曼 (David Adelman) 作为一名勇于使用年轻球员的创新型战术家，可能非常适合这支球队，这为掘金队提供了更多保障——即使其他新援未能奏效，他们也不至于陷入无人可用的窘境。
此外，贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray) 似乎终于能以健康的状态开启新赛季，而克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun) 看起来又取得了新的进步——如果你相信季前赛的表现的话。卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cam Johnson) 在运球和决策能力上比小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter, Jr.) 更出色，且投射能力丝毫不减，尽管丹佛会想念后者那被低估的篮板能力。不过，雷霆队并非一支注重拼抢篮板的球队，因此他们无法利用掘金队这一潜在弱点。
归根结底，这仍然是对尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 伟大实力的押注。我认为他是在NBA食物链顶端独一档的存在，而且他总能让球队打出1+1>2的效果。当今篮球比赛的身体对抗强度和残酷性也让任何球队都难以卫冕，即使是像雷霆这样年轻的队伍。综合所有因素，我以极其微弱的优势选择掘金队击败雷霆队。
最有价值球员：尼古拉·约基奇
只要约基奇还是篮球界公认的最佳球员，我就会一直选择他当选MVP。上赛季，谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 需要打出史上最伟大的后卫赛季之一才能赢得该奖项，这一事实表明，其他球员需要达到多高的水平才能将“约老师”拉下王座——而他本人上赛季可以说打出了NBA历史上最伟大的进攻赛季。随着丹佛阵容深度的增加，约基奇可能不会再场均三双，但掘金队可能成为常规赛的霸主，其总胜场数足以弥补他个人数据上潜在的“平淡赛季”。
除了约基奇，我也曾认真考虑过选择卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)。他身上有那种“被背叛”的剧本，就像2016年的威斯布鲁克那样；他看起来状态正佳，而且将为篮球界最大的市场效力。如果湖人队能赢下50场比赛，这个奖项可能非他莫属，但在那之前，我还是坚持选择约基奇。
年度最佳防守球员：维克托·文班亚马
嗯，这个奖项我还能选谁呢？自新秀赛季后半段以来，文班就已经无可争议地成为篮球界最好的防守者。如果他能出战65场比赛，DPOY的投票甚至都不会有什么悬念。去年，当文班在场时，马刺队的防守效率能排进联盟前十；而当他下场时，这一数据会暴跌至联盟垫底，而且比倒数第二还差了整整一个百分点。随着阵容的革新，圣安东尼奥本赛季的整体防守有望跻身联盟前十，而到赛季末，文班的总盖帽数甚至可能超过某些球队的全队总和。
最快进步球员：切特·霍姆格伦
这个奖项在历史上通常颁给那些实现从优秀到伟大飞跃的球员，而我预计切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 本赛季就能做到这一点。去年，他已经走在这条路上了，却因一次意外受伤而缺阵数月。一个完整的休赛期训练应该能让他练就一身神功。首次入选全明星赛应该在他的计划之中，考虑到雷霆队将赢得大量比赛，并且在他签下顶薪续约合同后会优先考虑他的成长，入选NBA最佳阵容也是有可能的。
年度最佳教练：乔·马祖拉
年度最佳教练奖项总是颁给那些带领球队表现远超预期的教练，而凯尔特人队正处于实现这一目标的绝佳位置。波士顿仍然拥有杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和德里克·怀特 (Derrick White) 这样的明星球员，以及一位为确保对手不赢球，会毫不犹豫地献出自己生命的教练。即便他们的前场深度足以让卡通片角色都感到可笑，但我相信波士顿的球队特质以及他们优先考虑出手质量的核心理念，能够帮助他们啃下一些胜利。东部有足够多的弱队可以让他们“刷分”，凯尔特人队今年可能会超出预期，让我们的前排硬汉乔教练——乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla)——拿下他的首个年度最佳教练奖。如果这真的发生了，颁奖典礼和随后的采访必将成为万众瞩目的电视节目。
年度最佳第六人：约什·哈特
最初我有些犹豫是否选择约什·哈特 (Josh Hart)，因为年度最佳第六人（6MOTY）在历史上通常颁给替补席上的头号得分手。然而，过去三届的获奖者场均得分都未超过15分，所以只要他的场均得分能达到两位数，哈特就会在竞争者之列。在经历了一个生涯最佳赛季后，尼克斯队仍将严重依赖他的全能性，而且他可能会在关键时刻替换米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 出场。考虑到尼克斯队每年受到的巨大关注，哈特在纽约打球这一点只会对他的评选更加有利。
年度最佳新秀：库珀·弗拉格
与年度最佳防守球员类似，年度最佳新秀（ROY）除了库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 之外，也确实没有其他答案。他是进入联盟的新秀中技术最成熟的一位，而且他所在的球队渴望竞争。达拉斯独行侠队的战绩很可能会比其他拥有该奖项竞争者的球队更好，并且他们期望弗拉格从第一天起就做出重要贡献。
其他可能进入讨论范围的名字包括特雷·约翰逊 (Tre Johnson) 和埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey)，他们两人都可能获得无限开火权，并被允许在比赛中犯错成长。如果他们中的任何一位能以中等效率打出漂亮的得分数据，他们就会进入候选名单。
点击查看原文：2025-26 NBA awards predictions: MVP, DPOY, champion, and more
2025-26 NBA awards predictions: MVP, DPOY, champion, and more
It’s my favorite time of the year. The time when I guarantee my predictions and pretend like this article won’t exist in 6 months. This season, there are a few players who are near locks to win certain awards, so I can at least hang my hat on them— hopefully. And if none of my picks are accurate, I’ll just shrug like Adam Silver and say “parity.”
Let’s start with the big kahuna.
NBA Champion: Denver Nuggets
Even with a potential dynasty brewing in OKC, I’m picking Denver to lift ol’ Larry for the second time in four years. The Nuggets have seemingly solved their depth issues with the additions Bruce Brown, Jonas Valanciunas, and Tim Hardaway Jr., while also getting rid of a coach and GM who hated each other more than Nico hates Luka. It’s still early, but David Adelman could be a great fit for this team as an innovative tactician who’s willing to play the young guns, giving Denver even more insurance that they won’t run out of bodies if their other acquisitions don’t work out.
Moreover, Jamal Murray finally seems to be healthy to start a season and Christian Braun looks like he’s taken another step — if you take stock in the preseason. Cam Johnson is a much better dribbler and decision maker than Michael Porter, Jr. without sacrificing any shooting, although Denver will miss the latter’s underrated rebounding. Still, OKC is a team that doesn’t prioritize grabbing boards, so they won’t be able to exploit a potential weakness for the Nuggets.
In the end, this is still a bet on the greatness of Nikola Jokic. I consider him to be in a tier alone at the top of the NBA food chain, and he always makes his teams play at a higher level than the sum of their parts. The physicality and grueling nature of today’s basketball also make it hard for any team to repeat, even one as young as OKC. Add it all up, and I’m picking the Nuggets over the Thunder by the slimmest of margins.
Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic
I’m picking Jokic for MVP until he’s no longer the clear best player in basketball. The fact that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needed to have one of the greatest guard seasons ever to win last season shows how high a level players need to reach to dethrone the Joker, who arguably had the greatest offensive season in NBA history. With Denver’s added depth, Jokic might not average another triple-double, but the Nuggets could be a regular-season juggernaut whose win total makes up for a potential “down season” for him statistically.
Jokic aside, I heavily debated picking Luka. He has the “backstabbed” narrative behind him a la Westbrook in 2016, is seemingly in great shape, and will play for the biggest market in basketball. If the Lakers win 50 games, it could be his to lose, but until that happens, I’m sticking with Jokic.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
Umm, who else am I supposed to pick here? Wemby’s been the undisputed best defender in basketball since the second half of his rookie season, and if he plays 65 games, the voting for DPOY won’t even be close. Last year, the Spurs had a top 10 defense with Wemby on the floor, which plummeted to last by a full point when he sat. With a revamped roster, San Antonio could finish top 10 overall in defense this season, and Wemby could have more total blocks than entire teams by year’s end.
Most Improved Player: Chet Holmgren
This award has historically gone to players who’ve made the leap from good to great, which is what I expect Chet to do this season. He was already on that path last year before being sidelined for months with a freak injury, and a full offseason of training should have him shooting hang pulls while going 54 from treball. Making his first All-Star game should be in the cards for him, and All-NBA is feasible too, given how many games OKC will win and their desire to prioritize Chet’s development, especially after he signed a max contract extension.
Coach of the Year: Joe Mazzulla
Coach of the year always goes to a coach whose team far exceeds expectations, and the Celtics are in prime position to do just that. Boston still has bonafide stars in Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, and a coach who will literally sacrifice his own life to make sure his opponents don’t win. Even with frontcourt depth that would make the Looney Tunes scoff, I have faith in Boston’s identity and their core philosophy of prioritizing shot quality to eek out some Ws. With enough bad teams in the East to beat up on, the Celtics could exceed expectations this year and land second first row Joe his first COTY award. If that happens, the awards show and subsequent interview will be must watch TV.
Sixth Man of the Year: Josh Hart
I was hesitant to pick Hart initially since 6MOTY has historically gone to the highest bench scorer. However, none of the past three winners have exceeded 15ppg, so as long as his average lands in the double digits, Hart will be in the running. Coming off a career season, the Knicks will still rely on his versatility heavily, and he could close games over Mitchell Robinson. That Hart plays in New York would only help his case given how much attention the Knicks get every year.
Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg
Similar to DPOY, there’s really no other answer than Flagg for ROY. He’s by far the most polished rookie entering the league and is also on a team that has a desire to compete. Dallas will likely end with a better record than other teams that have players who could contend for the award, and they expect Flagg to contribute heavily from day 1.
Other names that could be in the mix include Tre Johnson and Ace Bailey, both of whom could have the green light to chuck and play through their mistakes. If either of them puts up big scoring numbers on even middling efficiency, they’ll be on the ballot.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock