By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-10-14 19:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
如果我基于数据的统计模型能够准确衡量球队实力，那么新赛季的NBA将会是怎样一番景象？
提前模拟NBA赛季，通常是为了探究各种事件发生的可能性——从联盟垫底的球队赢得状元签，到最顶尖的队伍捧起拉里·奥布莱恩杯。
此外，深入体验单次模拟的运行过程也充满乐趣，它能向我们展示，在随机性的作用下，哪些看似不可能的事件或将成为现实。
本着ESPN对NFL赛季进行单次模拟并详述其过程的传统，让我们跟随第620号模拟——因其有趣的结果而被选中——的脚步，从揭幕战之夜一直走到NBA总决赛的终点。
请注意，这并非我个人（或ESPN）对本赛季走向的官方预测。所有赛果均由模拟随机生成，而球员数据等其他细节则融入了创作加工。
在此过程中，我们将见证NBA杯冠军的诞生，享受圣诞大战的激情，确定最终的季后赛席位，揭晓乐透抽签结果及状元归属，经历附加赛和季后赛的重重考验，并最终加冕2025-26赛季的NBA总冠军。让我们开始吧。
10月21日：雷霆与勇士统治揭幕战
俄克拉荷马城雷霆 胜 休斯顿火箭
金州勇士 胜 洛杉矶湖人
在Paycom中心球馆领取总冠军戒指并升起队史第一面总冠军旗帜后，雷霆队用一场酣畅淋漓的胜利证明了为何他们是卫冕冠军的热门。常规赛首日，在凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 的休斯顿首秀中，他面对旧主砍下27分，但雷霆队的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 和杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 得分双双突破20，切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 则送出了五次盖帽。
晚些时候，勇士队在卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 代表湖人出战的首个主场揭幕战中搅了局，以107-99击败对手。赛后，兴高采烈的德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 宣称，勇士队而非俄克拉荷马城，才应该被视为总冠军的最大热门。
12月16日：NBA杯决赛上演意外对决
四分之一决赛：
(1) 波士顿凯尔特人 胜 (4) 底特律活塞
(2) 迈阿密热火 胜 (3) 克利夫兰骑士
(4) 明尼苏达森林狼 胜 (1) 俄克拉荷马城雷霆
(3) 波特兰开拓者 胜 (2) 孟菲斯灰熊
半决赛：
(1) 波士顿凯尔特人 胜 (2) 迈阿密热火
(3) 波特兰开拓者 胜 (4) 明尼苏达森林狼
NBA杯决赛 (12月16日)：
(1) 波士顿凯尔特人 胜 (3) 波特兰开拓者
从10月21日持续至12月16日的NBA杯，最终在拉斯维加斯上演了一场出人意料的决赛，由凯尔特人对阵他们的前任后卫朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 所效力的开拓者队。在杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 因伤缺阵的情况下，开局取得16胜10负的波士顿以东部锦标赛头号种子的身份，先是在主场击败活塞，随后在拉斯维加斯的半决赛中战胜热火。
同样取得16胜10负、异军突起的开拓者，则抓住了雷霆在四分之一决赛主场爆冷不敌森林狼的机会。波特兰同样在客场（孟菲斯）取胜，并在半决赛中击败了明尼苏达。
然而，开拓者的黑马之旅最终以115-103的比分画上了句号。波特兰全场三分球36投仅10中，而凯尔特人的德里克·怀特 (Derrick White) 和佩顿·普里查德 (Payton Pritchard) 各自命中四记三分。赛后，波士顿立即制止了将此冠称为“队史第19冠”的说法。尽管如此，凯尔特人还是成功追平了宿敌湖人队，赢得了继首届NBA杯后的又一座冠军奖杯。
12月25日：尼克斯与湖人圣诞大战双双失利
状态挣扎的球队成为了圣诞大战的主旋律。骑士队和尼克斯队，这两支赛季初被视为东部热门的球队，在麦迪逊广场花园的对决前分别仅排在第11和第7位。饱受赛季初后场伤病困扰的骑士队，通过战胜尼克斯获得了一丝慰藉。
而湖人队则没有这样的宽慰，他们在主场输给休斯顿后，胜场数已经比负场数少了五场。
西部排名前二的球队——令人惊喜的勇士队和雷霆队——则氛围正好，他们都在主场赢得了胜利。丹佛掘金同样在主场告捷，尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 砍下了30分的三双数据。
截至12月25日的NBA排名
| 东部联盟 | 胜 | 负 | 胜率 | 西部联盟 | 胜 | 负 | 胜率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 奥兰多魔术 | 18 | 8 | .692 | 金州勇士 | 20 | 7 | .741 |
| 亚特兰大老鹰 | 18 | 9 | .667 | 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 | 19 | 7 | .731 |
| 迈阿密热火 | 17 | 9 | .654 | 明尼苏达森林狼 | 16 | 10 | .615 |
| 密尔沃基雄鹿 | 17 | 10 | .630 | 波特兰开拓者 | 16 | 10 | .615 |
| 波士顿凯尔特人 | 16 | 10 | .615 | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 15 | 11 | .577 |
| 多伦多猛龙 | 16 | 11 | .593 | 休斯顿火箭 | 13 | 10 | .565 |
| 纽约尼克斯 | 14 | 11 | .560 | 洛杉矶快船 | 14 | 12 | .538 |
| 费城76人 | 14 | 11 | .560 | 丹佛掘金 | 13 | 12 | .520 |
| 印第安纳步行者 | 14 | 12 | .538 | 新奥尔良鹈鹕 | 14 | 13 | .519 |
| 底特律活塞 | 13 | 13 | .500 | 萨克拉门托国王 | 12 | 14 | .462 |
| 克利夫兰骑士 | 12 | 15 | .444 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 11 | 14 | .440 |
| 夏洛特黄蜂 | 8 | 18 | .308 | 达拉斯独行侠 | 11 | 16 | .407 |
| 芝加哥公牛 | 7 | 18 | .280 | 洛杉矶湖人 | 10 | 15 | .400 |
| 布鲁克林篮网 | 4 | 21 | .160 | 菲尼克斯太阳 | 10 | 16 | .385 |
| 华盛顿奇才 | 3 | 21 | .125 | 犹他爵士 | 2 | 23 | .080 |
2月15日：勇士队在全明星周末期间独领风骚
2月13日至15日，当NBA齐聚加州英格尔伍德的Intuit Dome球馆时，勇士队成为了全联盟热议的焦点。凭借金州勇士在全明星间歇期前联盟最佳的42胜13负战绩，格林和吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 与斯蒂芬·库里 (Steph Curry) 一同入选了西部全明星阵容。
在这支经验丰富的勇士队身后，是大量的青年才俊：雷霆队在西部落后4.5个胜场，而强势崛起的魔术队则以联盟第二好的战绩领跑东部。尼克斯和骑士在经历了赛季初的慢热后也已重回正轨，分别攀升至东部第二和第四位。
快船队在西部并列第四，但他们的同城对手湖人队却继续步履维艰。此时的湖人胜场数已比负场数少12场，距离第十名的萨克拉门托国王队有六个胜场差，基本退出了附加赛的争夺。勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 甚至考虑在三月休战，去观看他的儿子布莱斯 (Bryce) 代表亚利桑那野猫队参加NCAA锦标赛。
截至全明星周末的NBA排名
| 东部联盟 | 胜 | 负 | 胜率 | 西部联盟 | 胜 | 负 | 胜率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 奥兰多魔术 | 37 | 16 | .698 | 金州勇士 | 42 | 13 | .764 |
| 纽约尼克斯 | 35 | 20 | .636 | 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 | 38 | 18 | .679 |
| 印第安纳步行者 | 33 | 22 | .600 | 丹佛掘金 | 37 | 19 | .661 |
| 克利夫兰骑士 | 31 | 24 | .564 | 洛杉矶快船 | 33 | 21 | .611 |
| 密尔沃基雄鹿 | 30 | 24 | .556 | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 33 | 21 | .611 |
| 亚特兰大老鹰 | 31 | 25 | .554 | 休斯顿火箭 | 32 | 21 | .604 |
| 多伦多猛龙 | 30 | 25 | .545 | 明尼苏达森林狼 | 32 | 24 | .571 |
| 迈阿密热火 | 28 | 28 | .500 | 菲尼克斯太阳 | 29 | 26 | .527 |
| 芝加哥公牛 | 26 | 29 | .473 | 波特兰开拓者 | 29 | 27 | .518 |
| 底特律活塞 | 25 | 28 | .472 | 萨克拉门托国王 | 28 | 28 | .500 |
| 波士顿凯尔特人 | 25 | 29 | .463 | 新奥尔良鹈鹕 | 27 | 29 | .481 |
| 费城76人 | 22 | 32 | .407 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 26 | 16 | .407 |
| 夏洛特黄蜂 | 12 | 43 | .218 | 达拉斯独行侠 | 23 | 32 | .418 |
| 华盛顿奇才 | 10 | 43 | .189 | 洛杉矶湖人 | 21 | 33 | .389 |
| 布鲁克林篮网 | 7 | 46 | .132 | 犹他爵士 | 9 | 47 | .161 |
谨防四月风云…
常规赛仅剩不到两周，许多悬念仍未揭晓，包括西部的头号种子之争。雷霆队已将与依旧火热的勇士队的差距缩小到2.5个胜场。而避免附加赛的竞争也异常激烈，三支球队同为40胜，尽管开拓者在负场数上比火箭和森林狼多两场。
独行侠在负场数上落后附加赛区两场，随着凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 的回归，他们仍在为季后赛门票做最后一搏。在东部，自赢得NBA杯后仅取得19胜30负的凯尔特人，正努力抵挡费城76人和令人失望的底特律活塞的追赶，以期获得附加赛资格。
进入2026年4月的NBA排名
| 东部联盟 | 胜 | 负 | 胜率 | 西部联盟 | 胜 | 负 | 胜率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 奥兰多魔术 | 51 | 24 | .680 | 金州勇士 | 56 | 19 | .747 |
| 纽约尼克斯 | 47 | 30 | .610 | 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 | 54 | 22 | .711 |
| 亚特兰大老鹰 | 43 | 33 | .566 | 丹佛掘金 | 49 | 27 | .645 |
| 印第安纳步行者 | 42 | 33 | .560 | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 47 | 28 | .627 |
| 克利夫兰骑士 | 42 | 24 | .553 | 洛杉矶快船 | 46 | 30 | .605 |
| 多伦多猛龙 | 41 | 34 | .547 | 休斯顿火箭 | 40 | 35 | .533 |
| 密尔沃基雄鹿 | 39 | 36 | .520 | 明尼苏达森林狼 | 40 | 35 | .533 |
| 迈阿密热火 | 39 | 37 | .513 | 波特兰开拓者 | 40 | 37 | .519 |
| 芝加哥公牛 | 38 | 37 | .507 | 菲尼克斯太阳 | 38 | 38 | .500 |
| 波士顿凯尔特人 | 35 | 40 | .467 | 萨克拉门托国王 | 38 | 38 | .500 |
| 费城76人 | 35 | 40 | .467 | 达拉斯独行侠 | 35 | 40 | .467 |
| 底特律活塞 | 35 | 41 | .461 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 35 | 40 | .467 |
| 夏洛特黄蜂 | 21 | 55 | .276 | 新奥尔良鹈鹕 | 33 | 43 | .434 |
| 布鲁克林篮网 | 12 | 64 | .158 | 洛杉矶湖人 | 32 | 44 | .421 |
| 华盛顿奇才 | 11 | 64 | .147 | 犹他爵士 | 20 | 56 | .263 |
4月12日：魔术与勇士分列常规赛榜首
勇士队用一波10连胜为赛季收官，彻底终结了雷霆队反超的希望，最终取得63场胜利，这是他们自2016-17赛季以来的最佳战绩。在东部，魔术队一骑绝尘，以领先尼克斯七个胜场的优势夺得头号种子。
东西部第六名的归属都通过决胜规则才得以确定。在全明星赛后状态下滑的克利夫兰最终跌入附加赛区，密尔沃基雄鹿则锁定了第6号种子。
与此同时，休斯顿在西部的平局中胜出，将一年前惊险避免附加赛的森林狼送入了附加赛。对此，安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 毫不示弱地宣称，无论如何，明尼苏达都将再次杀入西部决赛。
2025-26赛季NBA常规赛最终排名
| 东部联盟 | 胜 | 负 | 胜率 | 西部联盟 | 胜 | 负 | 胜率 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 奥兰多魔术 | 57 | 25 | .695 | 金州勇士 | 63 | 19 | .768 | |
| 2 | 纽约尼克斯 | 50 | 32 | .610 | 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 | 58 | 24 | .707 | |
| 3 | 亚特兰大老鹰 | 47 | 35 | .573 | 丹佛掘金 | 55 | 27 | .671 | |
| 4 | 印第安纳步行者 | 47 | 35 | .573 | 孟菲斯灰熊 | 51 | 31 | .622 | |
| 5 | 多伦多猛龙 | 46 | 36 | .561 | 洛杉矶快船 | 48 | 34 | .585 | |
| 6 | 密尔沃基雄鹿 | 44 | 38 | .537 | 休斯顿火箭 | 44 | 38 | .537 | |
| 7 | 克利夫兰骑士 | 44 | 38 | .537 | 明尼苏达森林狼 | 44 | 38 | .537 | |
| 8 | 迈阿密热火 | 42 | 40 | .512 | 波特兰开拓者 | 43 | 39 | .524 | |
| 9 | 芝加哥公牛 | 41 | 41 | .500 | 菲尼克斯太阳 | 42 | 40 | .512 | |
| 10 | 波士顿凯尔特人 | 40 | 42 | .488 | 萨克拉门托国王 | 38 | 44 | .463 | |
| 11 | 费城76人 | 37 | 45 | .451 | 圣安东尼奥马刺 | 38 | 44 | .463 | |
| 12 | 底特律活塞 | 36 | 46 | .439 | 达拉斯独行侠 | 36 | 46 | .439 | |
| 13 | 夏洛特黄蜂 | 23 | 59 | .280 | 洛杉矶湖人 | 36 | 46 | .439 | |
| 14 | 布鲁克林篮网 | 13 | 69 | .159 | 新奥尔良鹈鹕 | 34 | 48 | .415 | |
| 15 | 华盛顿奇才 | 12 | 70 | .146 | 犹他爵士 | 21 | 61 | .256 |
附加赛
东部联盟
7号种子克利夫兰骑士 胜 8号种子迈阿密热火 (克利夫兰锁定季后赛席位，将对阵2号种子尼克斯)
9号种子芝加哥公牛 胜 10号种子波士顿凯尔特人 (芝加哥晋级；波士顿被淘汰)
9号种子公牛 胜 8号种子热火 (芝加哥锁定季后赛席位，将对阵1号种子奥兰多；迈阿密被淘汰)
西部联盟
8号种子波特兰开拓者 胜 7号种子明尼苏达森林狼 (波特兰锁定季后赛席位，将对阵2号种子雷霆)
10号种子萨克拉门托国王 胜 9号种子菲尼克斯太阳 (萨克拉门托晋级；菲尼克斯被淘汰)
10号种子国王 胜 7号种子森林狼 (萨克拉门托锁定季后赛席位，将对阵1号种子勇士；明尼苏达被淘汰)
芝加哥公牛队堪称附加赛的最大赢家，他们在这个舞台上经验丰富。芝加哥不仅在迈阿密客场取胜，锁定了东部第8号种子，而且当波特兰在标靶中心球馆获胜，赢得西部第7个席位，为他们出人意料的赛季画上圆满句号时，公牛队也因此获得了一个首轮选秀权。
在附加赛的最后一场比赛中，森林狼的处境雪上加霜。萨克拉门托国王凭借德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) 在最后五秒的急停跳投，以103-101爆冷击败他们。国王队球员穿上印有“附加赛之王”的T恤庆祝胜利，这让公牛队颇为不悦。
克利夫兰的比赛则波澜不惊，骑士队以31分的巨大优势战胜迈阿密，保住了第7号种子的位置，这场胜利让人想起了去年季后赛首轮那次统治级的横扫。
选秀乐透抽签
- 犹他爵士 (来自明尼苏达森林狼)
- 亚特兰大老鹰 (来自新奥尔良鹈鹕)
- 布鲁克林篮网
- 华盛顿奇才
- 明尼苏达森林狼 (来自犹他爵士)
- 夏洛特黄蜂
- 底特律活塞
- 达拉斯独行侠
- 洛杉矶湖人
- 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 (来自费城76人)
- 圣安东尼奥马刺
- 波士顿凯尔特人
- 孟菲斯灰熊 (来自菲尼克斯太阳)
- 迈阿密热火
连续第二年，一支在季后赛前夕被淘汰的球队赢得了NBA选秀乐透抽签。但这一次，森林狼没能像2025年的独行侠那样享受这份喜悦。一笔源自鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 交易的选秀权互换，将状元签送到了犹他爵士手中，爵士队曾试图否认他们有意选择来自附近杨百翰大学的AJ·迪班萨 (AJ Dybantsa)，但未能成功。
对明尼苏达来说，消息也不全是坏事，他们仅下滑到了第5顺位。与此同时，战绩为34胜48负的鹈鹕队也未能从抽中榜眼签中获益，该选秀权被送往老鹰队，以完成他们在2025年选秀夜达成的交易。篮网和奇才——因两队合计仅胜25场而拥有最高中签概率——获得了接下来的两个顺位。
此外，已经进入季后赛的雷霆和灰熊也通过交易获得了乐透签；灰熊队有机会在德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 的交易中与太阳队互换选秀权。
在NBA总决赛G1开始前，总裁亚当·萧华 (Adam Silver) 向记者承认，联盟竞赛委员会将重新审视乐透抽签的概率规则，以避免球队宁愿选择乐透区也不愿通过附加赛晋级的现象发生。
季后赛
东部联盟第一轮
(1) 奥兰多魔术 4-1 胜 (8) 芝加哥公牛
(2) 纽约尼克斯 4-2 胜 (7) 克利夫兰骑士
(3) 亚特兰大老鹰 4-1 胜 (6) 密尔沃基雄鹿
(5) 多伦多猛龙 4-3 胜 (4) 印第安纳步行者
西部联盟第一轮
(1) 金州勇士 4-1 胜 (8) 萨克拉门托国王
(2) 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 4-0 胜 (7) 波特兰开拓者
(6) 休斯顿火箭 4-3 胜 (3) 丹佛掘金
(5) 洛杉矶快船 4-2 胜 (4) 孟菲斯灰熊
最受期待的首轮系列赛——原本预计是尼克斯与骑士在东部决赛的预演——最终却雷声大雨点小。经历了艰难的常规赛和附加赛后，伤病缠身的克利夫兰在第六场比赛中于主场被淘汰。但在其他赛场，戏剧性场面层出不穷。
两支经验相对不足的客队赢得了抢七大战。多伦多猛龙队将前球星帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 的表现限制在16投4中仅得15分，赢得了自2020年以来的首次系列赛胜利；而火箭队则在丹佛爆冷击败掘金，杜兰特在第四节独得12分。休斯顿上一次在季后赛中晋级还是在2019年。
快船是另一支以下克上的球队，他们击败了孟菲斯，尽管ESPN BET在系列赛前将灰熊列为弱势方。在客场赢得G1后，快船在主场用六场比赛解决了灰熊。
东部联盟半决赛
(1) 奥兰多魔术 4-2 胜 (5) 多伦多猛龙
(2) 纽约尼克斯 4-1 胜 (3) 亚特兰大老鹰
西部联盟半决赛
(1) 金州勇士 4-2 胜 (5) 洛杉矶快船
(2) 俄克拉荷马城雷霆 4-3 胜 (6) 休斯顿火箭
东西部的前两号种子在第二轮均成功晋级。雷霆队连续第二年通过七场大战才晋级西部决赛，但在控卫弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 因伤缺阵的情况下，火箭队还是给卫冕冠军制造了巨大麻烦。“我们会回来的，”杜兰特在休斯顿沉重的更衣室里说道。
勇士队在一场联盟两支最年长阵容的对决中击败了快船，而魔术和尼克斯则再次提醒所有人，他们整个赛季都是东部的顶级强队。两队在晋级东部决赛的道路上总共只输了三场比赛。
分区决赛
(1) 奥兰多魔术 4-1 胜 (2) 纽约尼克斯
(1) 金州勇士 4-2 胜 (2) 俄克拉荷马城雷霆
魔术队轻松挺进，这是他们自2009年以来首次闯入NBA总决赛。他们在第三场比赛中于麦迪逊广场花园爆冷击败纽约，取得3-0的系列赛领先，并最终以“绅士横扫”的方式晋级。
与此同时，在一场NBA旧王朝着新王发起冲击的对决中，勇士队兑现了格林整个赛季的豪言。双方在前两场战成平手，随后金州赢下了关键的第五场，并在客场淘汰了俄克拉荷马城，获得了NBA总决赛的主场优势。
NBA总冠军是…
(1) 奥兰多魔术 4-3 胜 (1) 金州勇士
勇士队在过去12年中第七次闯入总决赛，但他们神奇的旅程最终在主场的第七场比赛中耗尽了燃料，这与2016年金州输给克利夫兰的经历颇为相似。由于库里在赛季末段带着轻伤作战，勇士队强大的进攻火力未能完全发挥。奥兰多抓住了机会，在用贝恩升级首发阵容后仅一年，就出人意料地赢得了队史首个总冠军。
保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 在第七场比赛中砍下32分，并荣膺总决赛MVP，为他突破性的赛季画上了圆满的句号。他在投票中与弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 分享了选票，后者在该系列赛中场均贡献22分、8个篮板和5次助攻，同时还负责防守巴特勒。
在领奖台上接受丽莎·萨尔特斯 (Lisa Salters) 采访时，班凯罗将胜利归功于“620”，观察家们认为这是对他家乡206区号的一种改编。
点击查看原文：2025-26 NBA season simulation: Predictions, playoffs, Finals
2025-26 NBA season simulation: Predictions, playoffs, Finals
How will the NBA season look if my stats-based projections are an accurate measure of team ability?
The purpose of simulating the NBA season ahead of time is generally to see how often various things are likely to happen, from the weakest teams winning the draft lottery to the best ones taking home the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
It can also be fun to go through individual runs of the simulation to give an idea of what unlikely events could become reality based on random chance.
In the spirit of ESPN’s NFL tradition of detailing the events of a single simulation, let’s go through the NBA season using simulation No. 620 – chosen because of its interesting outcomes – from opening night to the end of the NBA Finals.
Note, this is not my prediction (or ESPN’s) of how this season will unfold. The outcomes are produced at random via simulation, and everything else, including player stats, takes creative license.
Along the way, we’ll crown an NBA Cup winner, enjoy the action on Christmas Day, determine the final playoff seeds, set the draft lottery and winner, run through the play-in tournament, playoffs and finally, name the 2025-26 NBA champion. Let’s get to it.
Oct. 21: Thunder, Warriors dominate Opening Night
Oklahoma City Thunder over Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors over Los Angeles Lakers
After getting their championship rings and raising the first banner in the rafters at Paycom Arena, the Thunder showed why they were favored to repeat with an impressive win during Kevin Durant’s Houston debut. Durant scored 27 points against his former team, the first day of the regular season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams both topped 20 points and Chet Holmgren had five blocks.
Later, the Warriors spoiled Luka Doncic’s first home opener with the Lakers, handing them a 107-99 defeat. Afterward, an ebullient Draymond Green vowed that the Warriors, not Oklahoma City, should be considered the title favorites.
Dec. 16: NBA Cup final features unexpected matchup
Quarterfinals:
(1) Boston Celtics over (4) Detroit Pistons
(2) Miami Heat over (3) Cleveland Cavaliers
(4) Minnesota Timberwolves over (1) Oklahoma City Thunder
(3) Portland Trail Blazers over (2) Memphis Grizzlies
Semifinals:
(1) Boston Celtics over (2) Miami Heat
(3) Portland Trail Blazers over (4) Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA Cup final (Dec. 16):
(1) Boston Celtics over (3) Portland Trail Blazers
The NBA Cup, running from Oct. 21 to Dec. 16, resulted in an unexpected final in Las Vegas that pitted the Celtics against former guard Jrue Holiday and the Trail Blazers. Boston, off to a 16-10 start without the injured Jayson Tatum, finished as the No. 1 seed in the East play-in and beat the Pistons at home and the Heat in the semifinals in Las Vegas.
The upstart Blazers, also 16-10, took advantage of the Thunder getting upset by the Timberwolves at home during the quarterfinals. Portland also won on the road, in Memphis, and then beat Minnesota in the semifinals.
Alas, the Blazers’ run ended in a 115-103 loss. Portland shot 10-of-36 on 3s, while Derrick White and Payton Pritchard made four apiece for Boston, which immediately shut down talk of referring to the NBA Cup as “Banner 19.” Still, the Celtics were able to match the rival Lakers’ inaugural NBA Cup title.
Dec. 25: Knicks, Lakers stumble on Christmas
Struggling teams were the storyline on Christmas Day. The Cavaliers and Knicks, who entered the season as East favorites, were 11th and seventh, respectively, going into their matchup at Madison Square Garden. The Cavaliers, buried by early-season injuries to the backcourt, got some measure of satisfaction with a win over the Knicks.
There was no such relief for the Lakers, who dropped five games below .500 after losing at home to Houston.
The vibes were better for the top two teams in the West, the surprising Warriors and Thunder, who both won at home. So did the Denver Nuggets behind a 30-point triple-double from Nikola Jokic.
NBA Standings through Dec. 25
| Eastern Conf. | W | L | Win% | Western Conf. | W | L | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 18 | 8 | .692 | Golden State Warriors | 20 | 7 | .741 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 18 | 9 | .667 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 | 7 | .731 |
| Miami Heat | 17 | 9 | .654 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 16 | 10 | .615 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 17 | 10 | .630 | Portland Trail Blazers | 16 | 10 | .615 |
| Boston Celtics | 16 | 10 | .615 | Memphis Grizzlies | 15 | 11 | .577 |
| Toronto Raptors | 16 | 11 | .593 | Houston Rockets | 13 | 10 | .565 |
| New York Knicks | 14 | 11 | .560 | Los Angeles Clippers | 14 | 12 | .538 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 14 | 11 | .560 | Denver Nuggets | 13 | 12 | .520 |
| Indiana Pacers | 14 | 12 | .538 | New Orleans Pelicans | 14 | 13 | .519 |
| Detroit Pistons | 13 | 13 | .500 | Sacramento Kings | 12 | 14 | .462 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 12 | 15 | .444 | San Antonio Spurs | 11 | 14 | .440 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 8 | 18 | .308 | Dallas Mavericks | 11 | 16 | .407 |
| Chicago Bulls | 7 | 18 | .280 | Los Angeles Lakers | 10 | 15 | .400 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 4 | 21 | .160 | Phoenix Suns | 10 | 16 | .385 |
| Washington Wizards | 3 | 21 | .125 | Utah Jazz | 2 | 23 | .080 |
Feb 15: Warriors all the hype at All-Star break
As the NBA gathered from Feb. 13 to 15 at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, the Warriors were the talk of the league. Green and Jimmy Butler III joined Steph Curry on the West roster thanks to Golden State’s league-best 42-13 record at the break.
In the rearview mirror of the experienced Warriors there was plenty of youth with the Thunder 4.5 games back in the West and the ascendant Magic atop the East with the NBA’s second-best record. After their slow starts, the Knicks and Cavaliers had righted the ships, moving up to second and fourth in the conference, respectively.
The Clippers were tied for fourth in the West, but their crosstown rivals continued to stumble. Now 12 games below .500, the Lakers were all but eliminated from the play-in race at six games back of the Sacramento Kings for 10th. LeBron James mused about taking March off to watch his son Bryce play in the NCAA tournament for the Arizona Wildcats.
NBA Standings through All-Star Break
| Eastern Conf. | W | L | Win% | Western Conf. | W | L | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 37 | 16 | .698 | Golden State Warriors | 42 | 13 | .764 |
| New York Knicks | 35 | 20 | .636 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 38 | 18 | .679 |
| Indiana Pacers | 33 | 22 | .600 | Denver Nuggets | 37 | 19 | .661 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 31 | 24 | .564 | Los Angeles Clippers | 33 | 21 | .611 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 30 | 24 | .556 | Memphis Grizzlies | 33 | 21 | .611 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 31 | 25 | .554 | Houston Rockets | 32 | 21 | .604 |
| Toronto Raptors | 30 | 25 | .545 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 32 | 24 | .571 |
| Miami Heat | 28 | 28 | .500 | Phoenix Suns | 29 | 26 | .527 |
| Chicago Bulls | 26 | 29 | .473 | Portland Trail Blazers | 29 | 27 | .518 |
| Detroit Pistons | 25 | 28 | .472 | Sacramento Kings | 28 | 28 | .500 |
| Boston Celtics | 25 | 29 | .463 | New Orleans Pelicans | 27 | 29 | .481 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 22 | 32 | .407 | San Antonio Spurs | 26 | 16 | .407 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 12 | 43 | .218 | Dallas Mavericks | 23 | 32 | .418 |
| Washington Wizards | 10 | 43 | .189 | Los Angeles Lakers | 21 | 33 | .389 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 7 | 46 | .132 | Utah Jazz | 9 | 47 | .161 |
Beware the Ides of April…
With less than two weeks left in the regular season, plenty remained at stake, including the top seed in the West. The Thunder had closed within 2.5 games of the still-hot Warriors. The race to avoid the play-in was hard-fought with three teams at 40 wins apiece, albeit with the Blazers two games back in the loss column of Houston and Minnesota.
Two games back in the loss column for the play-in, the Mavericks were still looking to make it with Kyrie Irving’s return to the lineup. In the East, the Celtics – who had gone just 19-30 since winning the NBA Cup – were trying to hold off the Philadelphia 76ers and disappointing Detroit Pistons to reach the play-in.
NBA Standings entering April 2026
| Eastern Conf. | W | L | Win% | Western Conf. | W | L | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 51 | 24 | .680 | Golden State Warriors | 56 | 19 | .747 |
| New York Knicks | 47 | 30 | .610 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 54 | 22 | .711 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 43 | 33 | .566 | Denver Nuggets | 49 | 27 | .645 |
| Indiana Pacers | 42 | 33 | .560 | Memphis Grizzlies | 47 | 28 | .627 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 42 | 24 | .553 | Los Angeles Clippers | 46 | 30 | .605 |
| Toronto Raptors | 41 | 34 | .547 | Houston Rockets | 40 | 35 | .533 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 39 | 36 | .520 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 40 | 35 | .533 |
| Miami Heat | 39 | 37 | .513 | Portland Trail Blazers | 40 | 37 | .519 |
| Chicago Bulls | 38 | 37 | .507 | Phoenix Suns | 38 | 38 | .500 |
| Boston Celtics | 35 | 40 | .467 | Sacramento Kings | 38 | 38 | .500 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 35 | 40 | .467 | Dallas Mavericks | 35 | 40 | .467 |
| Detroit Pistons | 35 | 41 | .461 | San Antonio Spurs | 35 | 40 | .467 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 21 | 55 | .276 | New Orleans Pelicans | 33 | 43 | .434 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 12 | 64 | .158 | Los Angeles Lakers | 32 | 44 | .421 |
| Washington Wizards | 11 | 64 | .147 | Utah Jazz | 20 | 56 | .263 |
April 12: Magic, Warriors top regular-season standings
The Warriors shut down any talk of a Thunder comeback by finishing the season on a 10-game winning streak to reach 63 wins, their most since 2016-17. In the East, the Magic ran away with the top seed and finished seven games clear of the Knicks.
The No. 6 seed in both conferences was decided via a tiebreaker. Cleveland, which fell back off the pace after the All-Star break, ended up in the play-in with the Milwaukee Bucks getting the No. 6 seed.
Meanwhile, Houston won a tie out West, sending the Timberwolves to the play-in a year after they narrowly avoided it. Defiant, Anthony Edwards vowed Minnesota would get back to the conference finals anyway.
NBA 2025-26 Season Final Standings
| Eastern Conf. | W | L | Win% | Western Conf. | W | L | Win% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orlando Magic | 57 | 25 | .695 | Golden State Warriors | 63 | 19 | .768 | |
| 2 | New York Knicks | 50 | 32 | .610 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 58 | 24 | .707 | |
| 3 | Atlanta Hawks | 47 | 35 | .573 | Denver Nuggets | 55 | 27 | .671 | |
| 4 | Indiana Pacers | 47 | 35 | .573 | Memphis Grizzlies | 51 | 31 | .622 | |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | 46 | 36 | .561 | Los Angeles Clippers | 48 | 34 | .585 | |
| 6 | Milwaukee Bucks | 44 | 38 | .537 | Houston Rockets | 44 | 38 | .537 | |
| 7 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 44 | 38 | .537 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 44 | 38 | .537 | |
| 8 | Miami Heat | 42 | 40 | .512 | Portland Trail Blazers | 43 | 39 | .524 | |
| 9 | Chicago Bulls | 41 | 41 | .500 | Phoenix Suns | 42 | 40 | .512 | |
| 10 | Boston Celtics | 40 | 42 | .488 | Sacramento Kings | 38 | 44 | .463 | |
| 11 | Philadelphia 76ers | 37 | 45 | .451 | San Antonio Spurs | 38 | 44 | .463 | |
| 12 | Detroit Pistons | 36 | 46 | .439 | Dallas Mavericks | 36 | 46 | .439 | |
| 13 | Charlotte Hornets | 23 | 59 | .280 | Los Angeles Lakers | 36 | 46 | .439 | |
| 14 | Brooklyn Nets | 13 | 69 | .159 | New Orleans Pelicans | 34 | 48 | .415 | |
| 15 | Washington Wizards | 12 | 70 | .146 | Utah Jazz | 21 | 61 | .256 |
Play-in tournament
Eastern Conference
No. 7 Cleveland Cavaliers over No. 8 Miami Heat (Cleveland clinches playoffs to face No. 2 Knicks)
No. 9 Chicago Bulls over No. 10 Boston Celtics (Chicago advances; Boston eliminated)
No. 9 Bulls over No. 8 Heat (Chicago clinches playoffs to face No. 1 Orlando; Miami eliminated)
Western Conference
No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers over No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves (Portland clinches playoffs to face No. 2 Thunder)
No. 10 Sacramento Kings over No. 9 Phoenix Suns (Sacramento advances; Phoenix eliminated)
No. 10 Kings over No. 7 Timberwolves (Sacramento clinches playoffs to face No. 1 Warriors; Minnesota eliminated)
Consider the Chicago Bulls the big winners of the play-in tournament, a place where they’ve got plenty of experience. Not only did Chicago win in Miami to claim the No. 8 seed in the East playoffs, but the Bulls also landed a first-round pick when Portland capped its unexpected season by winning at the Target Center to earn the seventh spot in the West.
Things went from bad to worse for the Timberwolves in the final game of the play-in tournament as the Sacramento Kings handed them a surprise 103-101 loss on a DeMar DeRozan pull-up jumper in the final five seconds. Sacramento players celebrated by donning “Kings of the Play-in” T-shirts, much to the Bulls’ dismay.
There was less drama in Cleveland, where the Cavaliers salvaged the No. 7 seed with a 31-point win over Miami reminiscent of last year’s dominant first-round sweep.
Draft lottery
- Utah Jazz (from Minnesota Timberwolves)
- Atlanta Hawks (from New Orleans Pelicans)
- Brooklyn Nets
- Washington Wizards
- Minnesota Timberwolves (from Utah Jazz)
- Charlotte Hornets
- Detroit Pistons
- Dallas Mavericks
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Philadelphia 76ers)
- San Antonio Spurs
- Boston Celtics
- Memphis Grizzlies (from Phoenix Suns)
- Miami Heat
For the second consecutive year, a team eliminated on the eve of the playoffs won the NBA draft lottery. This time, the Timberwolves didn’t get to enjoy it like the Mavericks did in 2025. A swap from the Rudy Gobert trade sent the top pick to the Utah Jazz, who unsuccessfully attempted to deny their interest in drafting AJ Dybantsa from nearby BYU.
The news wasn’t all bad for Minnesota, which swapped down only to No. 5. Meanwhile, the 34-48 Pelicans didn’t benefit from jumping up to No. 2, sending that pick to the Hawks to complete their deal on 2025 draft night. The Nets and Wizards claimed the next two picks, having entered with the best odds because of their combined 25 wins.
Later on, the playoff-bound Thunder and Grizzlies acquired lottery picks through trades; the Grizzlies had the opportunity to swap for the Suns’ pick in the Desmond Bane trade.
Speaking to reporters before Game 1 of the NBA Finals, commissioner Adam Silver acknowledged that the league’s competition committee will revisit lottery odds to avoid teams preferring the lottery to advancing through the play-in tournament.
Playoffs
Eastern Conference Round 1
(1) Orlando Magic over (8) Chicago Bulls, 4-1
(2) New York Knicks over (7) Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-2
(3) Atlanta Hawks over (6) Milwaukee Bucks, 4-1
(5) Toronto Raptors over (4) Indiana Pacers, 4-3
Western Conference Round 1
(1) Golden State Warriors over (8) Sacramento Kings, 4-1
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder over (7) Portland Trail Blazers, 4-0
(6) Houston Rockets over (3) Denver Nuggets, 4-3
(5) LA Clippers over (4) Memphis Grizzlies, 4-2
The most anticipated first-round series – an expected matchup between the Knicks and Cavaliers in the conference finals – ended up fizzling. Banged up from a difficult regular season and play-in appearance, Cleveland was eliminated at home in Game 6. But there was plenty of drama elsewhere.
Two road teams with less experience won their Game 7s. The Toronto Raptors held former star Pascal Siakam to 15 points on 4-of-16 shooting for their first series win since 2020, and the Rockets shocked the Nuggets in Denver thanks to 12 fourth-quarter points from Durant. Houston hadn’t advanced in the playoffs since 2019.
The Clippers were the other lower seed to advance, beating Memphis, which ESPN BET listed as the underdog before the series. After winning Game 1 on the road, the Clippers closed out the Grizzlies at home in six games.
Eastern Conference semifinals
(1) Orlando Magic over (5) Toronto Raptors, 4-2
(2) New York Knicks over (3) Atlanta Hawks, 4-1
Western Conference semifinals
(1) Golden State Warriors over (5) LA Clippers, 4-2
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder over (6) Houston Rockets, 4-3
The top two seeds in both conferences advanced in Round 2. For a second consecutive year, the Thunder needed seven games to reach the conference finals, but the Rockets pushed the defending champs without injured point guard Fred VanVleet. “We’ll be back,” Durant said in a somber Houston locker room.
The Warriors beat the Clippers in a battle of the NBA’s two oldest rosters, and the Magic and Knicks reminded everyone that they’ve been the class of the East all season. Both dropped just three total games en route to a showdown in the conference semifinals.
Conference finals
(1) Orlando Magic over (2) New York Knicks, 4-1
(1) Golden State Warriors over (2) Oklahoma City Thunder, 4-2
The Magic cruised to their first trip to the NBA Finals since 2009, surprising New York at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 to take a 3-0 series lead before completing the gentleman’s sweep.
Meanwhile, in a battle of the NBA’s last dynasty against a team aspiring to become one, the Warriors lived up to Green’s seasonlong hype. The teams split the first two games of the series before Golden State won the pivotal Game 5 and then closed out Oklahoma City on the road to host the NBA Finals.
And the NBA champion is…
(1) Orlando Magic over (1) Golden State Warriors, 4-3
The Warriors’ magical run to their seventh Finals in the past 12 years finally ran out of gas at home in Game 7, similar to Golden State’s loss to Cleveland in 2016. With Curry playing through a minor injury by the end of the season, the Warriors’ potent offense operated at less than full strength. Orlando took advantage, unexpectedly winning the first championship in franchise history barely a year after upgrading their starting lineup with Bane.
Paolo Banchero completed a breakthrough campaign by scoring 32 points in Game 7 and being named Finals MVP. He split votes with Franz Wagner, who averaged 22 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists in the series while defending Butler.
Interviewed on the podium by Lisa Salters, Banchero credited the victory to “620,” which observers interpreted as a remixed version of his native 206 area code.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN