By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-10-08 19:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
本赛季，哪些NBA球队的表现可能会超出或不及预期？我基于数据的预测模型将有助于回答这个问题。
去年，我的模型曾高看克利夫兰骑士队（预测排名东部第二）和俄克拉荷马城雷霆队（全联盟最高预测），并准确地预测布鲁克林篮网队和波特兰开拓者队会比预期更具竞争力，同时将费城76人队和菲尼克斯太阳队的预测排名置于普遍观点之下（尽管仍未料到他们最终表现如此糟糕，两队甚至连附加赛都没能进入）。
根据APBRmetrics论坛上的预测评分，我经过重新校准的预测模型取得了第二低的均方根误差——该方法会着重惩罚出现重大偏差的预测。同时，该模型与球队实际胜负场次的相关性也最强。
为了预测各支球队，我首先基于我的SCHOENE数据预测模型，并结合由克里希纳·纳尔苏 (Krishna Narsu) 提供的、涵盖过去三个赛季并经运气校正的常规调整正负值 (RAPM)，对球员进行评级。对于每支球队，我会根据过去三年因伤缺阵的比赛场次和当前的伤病情况来预测出场数，然后主观预估球员们的上场时间分配。
最终得出的结果，是在球队保持平均健康水平下的预期胜场数，这可以与ESPN BET上的各队赛季胜场预测盘口进行比较。除了将各分区的球队从1到15进行排名外，我还尝试解释了为什么我的预测会高于或低于这些盘口总数。
让我们从卫冕冠军开始。然后我们将探讨在竞争开放的东部谁能脱颖而出，以及谁可能在本赛季的排名中一落千丈。
跳转至球队：
老鹰 | 凯尔特人 | 篮网 | 黄蜂 | 公牛 | 骑士
独行侠 | 掘金 | 活塞 | 勇士 | 火箭 | 步行者
快船 | 湖人 | 灰熊 | 热火 | 雄鹿 | 森林狼
鹈鹕 | 尼克斯 | 雷霆 | 魔术 | 76人 | 太阳
开拓者 | 国王 | 马刺 | 猛龙 | 爵士 | 奇才
西部联盟
- 俄克拉荷马城雷霆
预测胜场： 59.2
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 62.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 俄克拉荷马城的62.5胜盘口高得惊人，但也合情合理。事实上，这是自2017-18赛季的NBA总冠军勇士队被预测为67.5胜（最终取得58胜）以来的最高盘口。如果说有哪支球队能达到这个数字，那就是雷霆队，他们在我模型中的预测胜场数是自……2017-18赛季的勇士队以来所有球队中最高的。
- 金州勇士
预测胜场： 56.1
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 46.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 勇士队的预测可能是所有球队中最令人惊讶的，比除了俄克拉荷马城之外的所有球队都高出近4个胜场。他们不仅完整拥有RAPM数据上的超级巨星吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III)——上赛季巴特勒在阵时，勇士打出了63胜的胜率水平（76.7%）——队中还有11名球员的评级高于联盟平均水准，与雷霆队并列联盟第一。
- 丹佛掘金
预测胜场： 52.2
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 53.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 对于掘金队的预测，模型与市场并无太大分歧，无论哪种预测都将他们排在西部第三。胜场数的微小差异，可以轻易地解释为市场乐观地认为丹佛的新援——卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cameron Johnson)、布鲁斯·布朗 (Bruce Brown)、小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 和约纳斯·瓦兰丘纳斯 (Jonas Valanciunas)——在与三届MVP尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic) 搭档时会表现得稍好一些。
- 洛杉矶快船
预测胜场： 49.7
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 47.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 对科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 健康状况的乐观预测是关键因素。模型预测伦纳德将出战66场比赛，这与他在2023-24赛季出战的68场相近，但比他在快船队其他任何一个赛季的出场数都多。此外，快船队也受益于阵容深度，在预计出场超过200分钟的球员中，没有任何一人的百回合贡献值评级低于-0.5分。
- 休斯顿火箭
预测胜场： 46.9
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 53.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 早在9月22日弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet) 遭遇前交叉韧带撕裂之前，模型对休斯顿的预测就已经低于盘口了。自2023年交易截止日被交易至太阳队以来，凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 未能像其基础数据所显示的那样，为球队带来同等级别的胜利。然而，范弗利特受伤后，这一差距被进一步拉大。火箭队的盘口仅比开盘时下调了一场，正如我在对该伤病的分析中指出的那样，失去了这位稳如磐石的控球后卫，休斯顿的预测胜场下降了近4场。
- 洛杉矶湖人
预测胜场： 45.8
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 48.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 这对湖人队来说已是年度惯例，他们的盘口总会因其超高人气而受益，尤其是在拉斯维加斯。自2013-14赛季以来，湖人队的最终战绩平均比其预测盘口低5.7个胜场，是所有球队中差距最大的。当然，我们有理由相信，如果卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 在他为球队效力的第一个完整赛季中打出MVP级别的表现，湖人队有可能达到这一目标。但湖人队是联盟中阵容最头重脚轻的球队，远超其他队伍，只有四名球员的预测表现优于联盟平均水平。其他球员评级优于平均水平人数少于五人的球队——篮网、爵士和奇才——都被预测将进入乐透区。
- 孟菲斯灰熊
预测胜场： 44.6
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 40.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 孟菲斯队的起点比上赛季的48胜更高。从净胜分的角度来看，灰熊队上赛季排名西部第三，仅次于两支分区决赛球队，而这对于未来的预测来说是一个更好的指标。即使失去了首发后卫德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)（转投奥兰多），孟菲斯队仍被预测有不小的机会避免参加附加赛。球队需要密切关注贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 的情况，他在周日的训练中左脚踝扭伤，目前处于每周观察状态。
- 明尼苏达森林狼
预测胜场： 43.7
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 49.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 森林狼队是我的模型上赛季的一大预测失误，当时预测他们取得42.7胜，而他们最终赢了49场。部分原因是明尼苏达在外线球员的健康状况上非常有利。尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 的离开意味着森林狼的一名年轻后卫必须进入轮换阵容，而小特伦斯·香农 (Terrence Shannon Jr.)——赛季前最有可能的竞争者——的预测数据并不理想。但在连续两次闯入分区决赛后，你不能责怪明尼苏达的球迷认为他们的球队被低估了。
- 达拉斯独行侠
预测胜场： 43.6
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 40.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 尽管我并不十分看好达拉斯队内球员的化学反应，但独行侠无疑拥有足够的天赋，队中有八名球员的评级高于联盟平均水平，其中包括目前因膝伤没有复出时间表的凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving)。在欧文回归之前，达拉斯需要依赖德安吉洛·拉塞尔 (D’Angelo Russell) 来稳固控卫位置，但由于欧文的伤病以及卢卡·东契奇的交易，这套阵容并未得到应有的认可。
- 萨克拉门托国王
预测胜场： 43.5
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 34.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 与达拉斯队相似，萨克拉门托队拥有的天赋似乎比外界对他们的普遍看法要多。别忘了，国王队上赛季在取得正净胜分的情况下赢得了40场比赛。虽然在交易走德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 后，扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine) 在阵时球队的胜率降至36胜的水平，但他们通过引进丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schroder) 升级了控球后卫位置。萨克拉门托的上限或许不高，但他们也绝不可能像盘口预测的那样毫无竞争力。
- 圣安东尼奥马刺
预测胜场： 40.1
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 44.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 我理解市场押注维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 将在本赛季成长为联盟前五的球员，尽管我的模型预测没有那么激进。我们已经见过那些天赋异禀的新星在第三个赛季通常会迎来类似的突破。然而，球队的其他阵容成员却不尽如人意。榜眼秀迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 不太可能在新秀赛季就帮助马刺队赢球，而斯蒂芬·卡斯尔在第一年的高阶数据也与他年度最佳新秀的声誉不符。
- 波特兰开拓者
预测胜场： 35.8
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 33.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 波特兰在2024-25赛季赢得了36场比赛，而在我的预测模型中，用朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 替换安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons) 让他们的实力得到了提升。市场对波特兰赛季后半段23胜18负的战绩持怀疑态度是正确的，这在很大程度上是由于对手糟糕的三分命中率（34%，联盟第二低），而这种情况通常不会延续。尽管如此，对于一支想要竞争附加赛席位的球队来说，这个盘口似乎是一种过度修正。
- 菲尼克斯太阳
预测胜场： 34.7
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 31.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 我理解这样的逻辑：菲尼克斯上赛季赢了36场比赛，然后减去了凯文·杜兰特。然而，太阳队在上赛季表现不及预期后，理应在一定程度上有所反弹，而且杜兰特在职业生涯现阶段的价值可能被高估了。同样值得记住的是，菲尼克斯在赛季末段将没有任何动力去累积失利，因为该队的选秀权已经被交换，其顺位高低已无关紧要。
- 新奥尔良鹈鹕
预测胜场： 32.6
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 30.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 对于一支拥有大量NBA级别天赋的球队来说，这是一个非常低的数字。新奥尔良上赛季因伤缺阵的比赛场次高居联盟前五，这次他们应该会迎来更健康的赛季，即使德章泰·穆雷 (Dejounte Murray) 的跟腱断裂将使他缺席本赛季大部分比赛。和太阳队一样，鹈鹕队也无法从提升自己的选秀顺位中获益，他们的选秀权已在选秀夜被送至老鹰队。
- 犹他爵士
预测胜场： 20.2
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 18.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 开出如此低盘口的球队通常会超出预期，上赛季战绩垫底的三支球队中有两支就是如此。爵士队拥有沃克·凯斯勒 (Walker Kessler) 和劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 这对高于平均水平的首发球员，足以弥补他们年轻后场带来的问题。
东部联盟
- 克利夫兰骑士
预测胜场： 50.1
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 56.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 骑士队上赛季从48胜跃升至64胜，之后出现一定程度的均值回归或许是情理之中的。部分原因与健康状况有关，克利夫兰已经有两名首发球员（全明星后卫达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland) 和侧翼马克斯·斯特鲁斯 (Max Strus)）将在赛季初缺阵，这迫使肯尼·阿特金森 (Kenny Atkinson) 比上赛季更早地深入挖掘他的外线轮换阵容。骑士队仍然是争夺东部头号种子的有力竞争者，但胜场数可能会低于2024-25赛季。
- 奥兰多魔术
预测胜场： 49.9
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 51.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我的预测模型可能更看好魔术队，他们仅以微弱差距落后于克利夫兰，位列东部最佳。这点微小的差异或许可以归因于忽略了赛程因素，这个因素很容易被高估，但并未被明确纳入这些预测中。奥兰多在今年夏天还交易得到了德斯蒙德·贝恩，此举应有助于他们的成功。
- 纽约尼克斯
预测胜场： 47.2
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 53.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 尼克斯队上赛季的表现超出了45.4胜的预测，多赢了5.5场比赛，这得益于他们在赛季期间保持了极高的健康水平。在纽约的首发五虎中，只有杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 因伤病缺席了多达九场比赛。这种情况可能很难复制。而且，随着迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 取代汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau) 成为主教练，我预计尼克斯队核心球员的上场时间会减少。我预计纽约最终的战绩会介于这两个预测数字之间，大约在50胜左右。
- 印第安纳步行者
预测胜场： 45.9
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 38.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 尽管前印第安纳中锋迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner)——现已效力于雄鹿队——将难以替代，但这个预测数字还是低得惊人。上赛季，即使在泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 缺阵的情况下（他将因右跟腱撕裂缺席2025-26赛季），步行者队依然保持着竞争力。而且，印第安纳在中锋位置上的替代者——尤其是空间型大个子杰伊·赫夫 (Jay Huff)——的评级确实高于普遍看法。我不敢肯定印第安纳能复制上赛季的排名，但我看好步行者队有机会取得超过五成的胜率。
- 波士顿凯尔特人
预测胜场： 45.6
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 40.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 和印第安纳队一样，市场可能过于关注波士顿失去的球员，而没有足够重视留下的球员。凯尔特人队中仍有八名球员的预测表现优于平均水平——在联盟中并列第八多——其中包括全明星球员杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和数据表现出色的德里克·怀特 (Derrick White)。这里的变数在于，在杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum)——他因右跟腱断裂可能赛季报销——回归之前，波士顿可能会在赛季中进行交易以避免奢侈税，并借机在乐透区碰碰运气。
- 密尔沃基雄鹿
预测胜场： 44.5
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 42.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 我或许只需指出密尔沃基拥有扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 就够了。上赛季，在阿德托昆博出战而达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 缺阵的比赛中，雄鹿队取得了11胜5负的战绩，尽管对手赛程较弱。他们还将中锋位置从布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez) 升级为迈尔斯·特纳。部分由于这一成功，我的模型对后卫AJ·格林 (AJ Green)、小凯文·波特 (Kevin Porter Jr.) 和莱恩·罗林斯 (Ryan Rollins) 的评价要高于普遍观点。
- 亚特兰大老鹰
预测胜场： 44.3
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 46.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 外界对老鹰队的炒作可能有些过度了，他们的休赛期操作无疑是积极的，但短期内或许并未带来革命性的改变。我比模型更看好老鹰队避免附加赛的机会，但如果他们最终能排进东部前四，我仍然会感到惊讶。
- 底特律活塞
预测胜场： 42.6
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 45.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 很大程度上是因为失去了马利克·比斯利 (Malik Beasley)，他可以说是底特律上赛季仅次于全明星核心凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 的第二好的球员。替代者卡里斯·勒韦尔 (Caris LeVert) 和邓肯·罗宾逊 (Duncan Robinson) 的评级远不及比斯利有效，后者上赛季的三分球命中数位列NBA第二。更多地依赖年轻天赋可能会导致活塞队在短期内出现倒退。
- 多伦多猛龙
预测胜场： 40.7
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 38.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 猛龙队的操作限制了他们的上限，但在保持合理健康的情况下，应该能打造出一支有竞争力的球队。多伦多上赛季因伤病缺阵的比赛场次排在联盟前十，其中包括从新奥尔良交易来的布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 在加盟后赛季报销。我的模型看好一笔不起眼的引援：桑德罗·马穆克拉什维利 (Sandro Mamukelashvili) 的加入，他上赛季在马刺队表现高效。
- 迈阿密热火
预测胜场： 40.3
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 38.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 我们的预测相差不大。在泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro) 因左脚撞击综合征接受手术而赛季初缺阵的情况下，诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell) 的加入应能帮助迈阿密保持竞争力。
- 费城76人
预测胜场： 38.4
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 42.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 围绕76人队的乐观情绪有些令人费解；在失去了关键的前场贡献者盖尔雄·亚布塞莱 (Guerschon Yabusele) 后，他们的阵容在纸面上看起来更糟了。如果乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 健康且高效，费城或许能以超过五成的胜率结束赛季。但即便是我为恩比德预测的1440分钟出场时间，目前来看也感觉有些乐观；他上一次打这么长时间还是在2022-23赛季，那个赛季他被评为MVP。而另一位有伤病隐患的球员保罗·乔治 (Paul George)，在经历了上赛季的表现后，其评级已不再是精英级别。
- 芝加哥公牛
预测胜场： 38.0
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 31.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 这感觉像是市场预测忽略了某些情况。在过去三个赛季中，芝加哥每个赛季都取得了39或40场胜利，而且上赛季他们在全明星周末后，在没有扎克·拉文的情况下取得了17胜10负的战绩。公牛队已明确表示，他们宁愿争夺一个附加赛席位，也不愿在乐透区谋求一个高顺位签。芝加哥的发展方向不尽如人意，但他们应该会保持竞争力。
- 夏洛特黄蜂
预测胜场： 28.5
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 26.5
为何预测战绩高于盘口： 情况不可能比上赛季更糟了，当时黄蜂队战绩为19胜63负，因伤缺阵的比赛场次位列联盟第三。科林·塞克斯顿 (Collin Sexton) 的加入将为黄蜂队在拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 休息或缺阵时提供一个可靠的得分点，而2023年的榜眼秀布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller) 也有望在他的成长道路上迈出新的一步。
- 布鲁克林篮网
预测胜场： 17.6
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 20.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 考虑到阵容中有大量新秀，我预料到布鲁克林的预测会是联盟最差的。篮网队也只有两名球员的评级高于联盟平均水平。尽管如此，通过在薪金清理交易中得到海伍德·海史密斯 (Haywood Highsmith)、特伦斯·曼恩 (Terance Mann) 和小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.)，球队还是有足够的天赋在赛季初保持一定的竞争力。
- 华盛顿奇才
预测胜场： 14.2
ESPN BET 预测胜场盘口： 20.5
为何预测战绩低于盘口： 鉴于我的模型倾向于压缩预期排名以避免出现重大偏差，这是一个低得惊人的预测。事实上，这是自我2010年采用该模型以来，为一支球队计算出的最差预测。在交易截止日和今年夏天相继送走老将后，华盛顿队中没有任何一名球员的评级能排进联盟前130位。
点击查看原文：NBA 2025-26 season: Win projections for all 30 NBA teams
NBA 2025-26 season: Win projections for all 30 NBA teams
Which NBA teams might be better or worse than expected this season? My stats-based projections help answer that question.
Last year, my model was high on the Cleveland Cavaliers (ranked second in the Eastern Conference) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (the highest overall projection) and appropriately liked the Brooklyn Nets and the Portland Trail Blazers to be more competitive than expected while putting the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns lower than conventional wisdom (but still not as poor as they actually finished, entirely out of the play-in tournament for both teams).
Based on the scoring of projections at the APBRmetrics forum, my recalibrated forecast had the second-lowest root mean squared error, a method that heavily penalizes bad misses. It also had the strongest correlation to actual wins and losses.
To project teams, I start with player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time.
The result is an expected wins total given average health, which is comparable to teams’ over/under season win totals at ESPN BET. In addition to ranking each conference’s teams 1 to 15, I’ve also tried to explain why my projections are higher or lower than those totals.
Let’s get to it, starting with the defending champions. Then we’ll look into who could emerge in a wide-open Eastern Conference and who might plummet down in the standings this season.
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS
Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 59.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 62.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Oklahoma City’s line of 62.5 wins is appropriately monstrous. In fact, it’s the highest since the 2017-18 NBA champion Warriors were pegged at 67.5 wins, before finishing with 58. If anyone is going to hit that line, it’s the Thunder, who have the highest projection for any team in my model since … the 2017-18 Warriors.
2. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 56.1
ESPN BET over/under total: 46.5
Why they project to be better than their total: The Warriors might have the single most surprising projection for any team, nearly four wins clear of the non-Oklahoma City field. Having added RAPM superstar Jimmy Butler III for a full season – they won at a 63-win clip (76.7%) with Butler in the lineup last season – the Warriors also have 11 players who rate better than league average, tied with the Thunder for most of any team.
3. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 52.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 53.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: There’s not much disagreement here on the Nuggets, who are third in the Western Conference either way. The win-plus differential could easily be explained by the market’s optimism that Denver’s newcomers – Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas – will perform slightly better when paired with three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
4. LA Clippers
Projected wins: 49.7
ESPN BET over/under total: 47.5
Why they project to be better than their total: A rosy projection for Kawhi Leonard’s health is a key factor. Leonard is projected for 66 games, along the lines of the 68 he played in 2023-24 but more than he has played in any other season with the Clippers. The Clippers also benefit from having no player rated worse than minus-0.5 points per 100 possessions projected for more than 200 minutes.
5. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 46.9
ESPN BET over/under total: 53.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Even before Fred VanVleet suffered a torn ACL on Sept. 22, Houston was projected under by the model. Kevin Durant hasn’t driven winning success at the level his box score stats would imply since being traded to the Suns at the 2023 deadline. The gap was exacerbated, however, once VanVleet was injured. The Rockets’ line has moved only a game from where it opened, and as I noted in the analysis of the injury, Houston’s projection dropped by nearly four wins without the rock-solid point guard.
6. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected wins: 45.8
ESPN BET over/under total: 48.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: This is an annual occurrence for the Lakers, whose line benefits from their popularity, particularly in Las Vegas. On average, the Lakers have finished 5.7 wins below their total since 2013-14, the biggest gap for any team. There certainly is reason to believe the Lakers could hit the mark if Luka Doncic plays at an MVP level in his first full season with the team. But the Lakers are far and away the league’s top-heaviest team, with just four players projected better than league average. The other teams with fewer than five – the Nets, Jazz and Wizards – are all pegged for the lottery.
7. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 44.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 40.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Memphis is starting at a higher point than last season’s 48 wins. In terms of point differential, the Grizzlies ranked third in the West, behind the two conference finalists, and that’s a better predictor going forward. Even with the loss of starting guard Desmond Bane to Orlando, Memphis still projects with a reasonable chance at avoiding the play-in. The team will have to monitor Ja Morant, who is week-to-week with a sprained left ankle suffered during Sunday’s practice.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 43.7
ESPN BET over/under total: 49.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The Timberwolves were one of my model’s big misses a season ago, winning 49 games while projected for 42.7. In part, Minnesota benefited from favorable health on the perimeter. Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s departure means one of the Wolves’ young guards will have to step into a rotation role, and Terrence Shannon Jr. – the most likely contender ahead of the season – projects poorly. But don’t blame Minnesota fans for thinking their team is underrated after back-to-back trips to the conference finals.
9. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 43.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 40.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Although I don’t love how the players fit together in Dallas, the Mavericks certainly have plenty of talent with eight who rate better than league average, including Kyrie Irving (knee), who currently doesn’t have a timetable for a return. Dallas is dependent on D’Angelo Russell solidifying the point guard spot until Irving returns, but this roster isn’t getting quite enough credit due to Irving’s injury and the Luka Doncic trade.
10. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 43.5
ESPN BET over/under total: 34.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Similar to Dallas, Sacramento appears to have more talent than the narrative about the team suggests. Remember, the Kings won 40 games a season ago with a positive point differential. And while they dropped to a 36-win pace with Zach LaVine in the lineup after the De’Aaron Fox trade, they’ve upgraded at point guard with Dennis Schroder. The ceiling might not be high for Sacramento, but it’s unlikely the Kings are anywhere near as out of the mix as their line suggests.
11. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 40.1
ESPN BET over/under total: 44.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: I understand the bet on Victor Wembanyama emerging as a top-five player this season despite a projection that’s not quite so aggressive. We’ve seen similar breakthroughs for other transcendent prospects in Year 3. The rest of the roster, however, leaves much to be desired. No. 2 draft pick Dylan Harper is unlikely to help the Spurs win as a rookie, and Stephon Castle’s advanced stats in Year 1 didn’t match his Rookie of the Year reputation.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 35.8
ESPN BET over/under total: 33.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Portland won 36 games in 2024-25 and upgraded in my projections by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday. The market is right to be skeptical of Portland’s 23-18 second half, driven in large part by poor opponent 3-point shooting (34%, second lowest in the NBA), which doesn’t typically carry over. Still, this line seems like an overcorrection for a team that wants to compete for a play-in spot.
13. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 34.7
ESPN BET over/under total: 31.5
Why they project to be better than their total: I get the logic that Phoenix won 36 games last season then subtracted Kevin Durant. However, the Suns were probably due for some degree of bounce-back after underperforming their projections a season ago, and Durant’s value at this stage of his career is likely overstated. It’s also worth remembering that Phoenix will have no incentive to accumulate losses late in the season because the team’s draft pick has been swapped to the point of irrelevance.
14. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 32.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 30.5
Why they project to be better than their total: That’s a remarkably low figure for a team that has plenty of NBA talent. New Orleans ranked in the NBA’s top five in games lost to injury last season, and it should have better health this time around, even if Dejounte Murray’s Achilles rupture will cost him much of the campaign. Like the Suns, the Pelicans don’t benefit from improving their draft pick, which was sent to the Hawks on draft night.
15. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 20.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 18.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Teams with lines this low typically go over, including two of the bottom three teams from last season. In Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz have a pair of above-average starters to counteract the issues caused by their young backcourt.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 50.1
ESPN BET over/under total: 56.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The Cavaliers are probably due some regression to the mean after jumping from 48 wins to 64 last season. Part of that relates to health, and Cleveland already has two starters (All-Star guard Darius Garland and wing Max Strus) sidelined to start the season, forcing Kenny Atkinson deeper into his perimeter rotation than he had to go last season. The Cavaliers are still a strong pick to claim the East’s top seed but perhaps with a lower win total than in 2024-25.
2. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 49.9
ESPN BET over/under total: 51.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: If anything, my projections are probably more bullish on the Magic, who place just a hair behind Cleveland for the best in the East. The small discrepancy can probably be attributed to overlooking the schedule, a factor that is easy to overrate but one that is not specifically included in these projections. Orlando also dealt for Desmond Bane this past summer, a move that should contribute to their success.
3. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 47.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 53.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The Knicks outperformed last season’s 45.4-win projection by 5.5 games, benefiting from strong in-season health. Among New York’s starting five, only Jalen Brunson missed as many as nine games due to injury or illness. That might be difficult to replicate. And I’m also counting on fewer minutes for the Knicks’ top players with Mike Brown replacing Tom Thibodeau as coach. I’d expect New York to finish somewhere between these two marks, ending around 50 wins.
4. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 45.9
ESPN BET over/under total: 38.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Even though former Indiana center Myles Turner – now with the Bucks – will be difficult to replace, this number feels shockingly low. The Pacers were still competitive last season when they were without Tyrese Haliburton, who will miss the 2025-26 campaign with a torn right Achilles. And Indiana’s replacements at center – most notably stretch big man Jay Huff – do rate better than conventional wisdom. I’m not confident Indiana can finish in the same spot in the standings as last season, but I like the Pacers’ chances of being better than .500.
5. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 45.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 40.5
Why they project to be better than their total: As with Indiana, there might be too much focus on the players Boston lost and not enough on the ones who remain. The Celtics still have eight players projected better than average – tied for eighth most in the league – including All-Star Jaylen Brown and statistical standout Derrick White. The caveat here is that Boston could subtract during the season to avoid the luxury tax and take a chance at the lottery before Jayson Tatum – likely out for the season after rupturing his right Achilles tendon – returns.
6. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 44.5
ESPN BET over/under total: 42.5
Why they project to be better than their total: I might point out that Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo and leave it at that. The Bucks went 11-5 last season in games Antetokounmpo played without Damian Lillard, albeit against a weak schedule, and they’ve upgraded at center from Brook Lopez to Myles Turner. Due in part to that success, my model is higher on guards AJ Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins than conventional wisdom would suggest.
7. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 44.3
ESPN BET over/under total: 46.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The hype might be getting a little heavy for the Hawks, whose offseason was undoubtedly positive but perhaps not transformative in the short term. I’m higher than the model on Atlanta’s chances of avoiding the play-in, but I would still be surprised if they finish in the East’s top four.
8. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 42.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 45.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Largely because of the loss of Malik Beasley, arguably Detroit’s second-best player last season after All-Star centerpiece Cade Cunningham. Replacements Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson don’t rate anywhere near as effectively as Beasley, who finished second in the NBA in made 3-pointers last season. Relying more on young talent could cause the Pistons to take a short-term step back.
9. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 40.7
ESPN BET over/under total: 38.5
Why they project to be better than their total: The Raptors’ moves have capped their upside but should produce a competitive team given reasonable health. Toronto was in the top 10 in games missed due to injury or illness, including Brandon Ingram sitting out the remainder of the season after being acquired from New Orleans at the deadline. One quiet move my model likes: the addition of Sandro Mamukelashvili, who was effective last season with the Spurs.
10. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 40.3
ESPN BET over/under total: 38.5
Why they project to be better than their total: We’re not far apart here. Adding Norman Powell should help Miami remain competitive with Tyler Herro sidelined to start the season following surgery to address an impingement in his left foot.
11. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 38.4
ESPN BET over/under total: 42.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: The optimism around the Sixers is a bit mystifying; their roster looks worse on paper with the loss of key frontcourt contributor Guerschon Yabusele. If Joel Embiid is healthy and effective, Philadelphia probably would finish better than .500. But even the 1,440 minutes I’ve projected for Embiid feel optimistic at this point; he last played that much in 2022-23 en route to being named MVP. And fellow injury question mark Paul George no longer rates as an elite player after last season’s performance.
12. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 38.0
ESPN BET over/under total: 31.5
Why they project to be better than their total: This feels like a case of the market not paying attention. Chicago has won either 39 or 40 games across each of the past three campaigns, and they went 17-10 after the All-Star break last season without Zach LaVine. The Bulls have made it clear they’d rather pursue a play-in berth than a high spot entering the lottery. Chicago’s direction leaves much to be desired, but the Bulls should be competitive.
13. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 28.5
ESPN BET over/under total: 26.5
Why they project to be better than their total: Things can’t go as badly as last season, when the Hornets went 19-63 with the third-most games lost due to injury in the league. Adding Collin Sexton will give the Hornets a go-to scorer with LaMelo Ball on the bench or sidelined, and 2023 No. 2 pick Brandon Miller should be expected to take a step forward in his development.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 17.6
ESPN BET over/under total: 20.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Given the number of rookies on the roster, I expected Brooklyn to have the league’s worst projection. The Nets also have just two players who rate better than league average. Still, there’s enough talent with the additions of Haywood Highsmith, Terance Mann and Michael Porter Jr. in salary dumps to keep Brooklyn competitive to start the season.
15. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 14.2
ESPN BET over/under total: 20.5
Why they project to be worse than their total: Given how my model tends to compress the expected standings to avoid bad misses, this is a shockingly low projection for the Wizards. In fact, it’s the worst I’ve calculated for a team since adopting this model in 2010. After trading away veterans at the deadline and again this past summer, Washington doesn’t have a single player who rates in the league’s top 130.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN