[ESPN] NBA未来实力榜——联盟30队全新三年展望

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By NBA insiders | ESPN, 2025-09-16 20:00:00

由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。

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你的主队在进入2025-26赛季时前景如何？到2028年又会是怎样一番景象？

NBA未来实力榜是ESPN对各支球队在未来三个赛季——2025-26、2026-27和2027-28赛季——的赛场成就预测。

俄克拉荷马城雷霆能否成为第一支打破“连续八个赛季由不同球队夺冠”这一NBA纪录的球队？维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 和圣安东尼奥马刺需要多久才能跻身争冠行列？

而洛杉矶湖人进入球队的卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 时代后，他们的前景又将如何？

为了确定这份榜单，我们邀请了ESPN分析师凯文·佩尔顿 (Kevin Pelton)、鲍比·马克斯 (Bobby Marks) 和蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps) 在五个维度上对各支球队进行评分，并与联盟其他球队进行横向比较。（每个维度的解释以及全部30支球队的完整评分详见榜单末尾。）

以下是我们在2025-26赛季前的最新榜单。状元位置虽然未变，但此后的排名却发生了巨大动荡，其中九支球队的排名与去年的榜单相比，出现了两位数的变动（四升五降）。

跳转至球队：
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS

1. 俄克拉荷马城雷霆

上次排名： 1

雷霆能否登顶榜首已非悬念，真正的问题在于他们在本榜单历史上的地位如何。凭借一个赢得总冠军的年轻核心（没有首发球员年龄超过27岁）和联盟顶级的未来额外选秀权储备，俄克拉荷马城雷霆创造了自凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 时代的金州勇士以来所有球队中的最高FPR（未来实力）评分。在与卫冕MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 达成超级顶薪续约，并与切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 和杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 签订新秀续约合同后，雷霆将很难留住所有的角色球员。但联盟中没有谁比他们更有能力找到替代者。——佩尔顿

2. 休斯顿火箭

上次排名： 7

休斯顿火箭证明了这份榜单的排名变化能有多快。从2021年5月到2023年10月，火箭在连续五期榜单中都位列倒数五名，且从未超过第22位。但去年，在聘请了主教练艾米·乌度卡 (Ime Udoka) 并集结了联盟中最顶尖的年轻核心之一后，火箭的排名跃升至第七。未来名人堂成员凯文·杜兰特的加盟也起到了助推作用，休斯顿火箭凭借在球员（第二）、管理层（第四）和选秀资产（第五）三个维度的前五排名，紧随其西部对手之后。——邦坦普斯

3. 纽约尼克斯

上次排名： 3

尼克斯在时隔25年重返分区决赛，但在六场比赛中不敌印第安纳步行者后，他们的排名保持稳定。在用迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 替换了主教练汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau) 后，纽约尼克斯凭借在球员（第五）、市场（第二）和管理层（第九）三个维度的前十表现，连续两年创下队史最高排名。——邦坦普斯

4. 克利夫兰骑士

上次排名： 13

我们未能预见到克利夫兰骑士从东部的陪跑者演变为真正的竞争者。上赛季只有雷霆的64胜超过了骑士，尽管他们在分区半决赛中失利，但本赛季的东部格局对克利夫兰来说一片开阔。骑士的薪金总额已经进入了工资帽的第二奢侈税线，因此在薪金灵活性方面排名垫底。然而，由于他们的四位核心球员都签有长期合同，克利夫兰骑士应该能在交易中获得价值，同时节省资金围绕全明星球员埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)（24岁）和多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)（29岁）进行阵容重塑。——佩尔顿

5. 洛杉矶快船

上次排名： 20

相较于上一期FPR榜单，排名飙升15位主要得益于在薪金、市场和管理层三个维度均位列前五。至于阵容，快船在未来三个赛季将沿着两条时间线运作。当前版本是一支“赢在当下”的球队，14名球员中有11人的合同将持续到2026-27赛季，其中包括科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 和詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)。第二版本则拥有重塑阵容的灵活性，从2027年休赛期开始。届时，由于只有中锋伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 身背保障合同，洛杉矶快船在那个夏天可能拥有高达1.4亿美元的薪金空间。快船目前正因规避工资帽而接受调查；如果指控被证实，相关处罚将对他们在此榜单中的位置产生重大影响。——马克斯

6. 金州勇士

上次排名： 9

一支拥有三名35岁以上且合同仅剩两年的球员的球队，理应令人担忧。但如果全明星周末后20胜7负的战绩以及季后赛首轮系列赛战胜休斯顿火箭能说明什么，那么斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)、德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green)、吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 和勇士阵容中的其他成员仍然具备一定的持久力。由于2027年后库里时代的巨大未知性，这个排名很可能是这套阵容的巅峰。——马克斯

7. 奥兰多魔术

上次排名： 7

今年夏天，魔术交易得到了德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)，并与保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 签下了一份五年续约合同。然而，这些操作让奥兰多魔术的排名与上次持平。魔术排名之所以停滞不前，是因为他们在薪金（第27）和选秀（第24）两个维度上排名靠后。在未来三个赛季，魔术将为贝恩、班凯罗、弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 和杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 支付4.5亿美元的保障合同。此外，在未来七年里，他们只有一个未来的首轮签（2032年）可以交易。——马克斯

8. 洛杉矶湖人

上次排名： 21

即便勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 的未来尚不明朗，湖人的排名依然比上次跃升了13位。这次大幅度的提升很大程度上是因为他们在二月份交易得到了卢卡·东契奇，并在八月份与这位全明星后卫完成了续约。拥有东契奇至少未来三年的合同保障、洛杉矶市场的吸引力以及未来两个赛季充裕的薪金空间，这些都让湖人处于一个有利的位置。——马克斯

9. 丹佛掘金

上次排名： 6

掘金在球员维度上仍然排名第四，这反映出他们在去年春天与俄克拉荷马城雷霆大战七场后，依然有潜力成为雷霆在西部的最大威胁。然而，在常规赛末期更换了主教练和总经理之后，丹佛掘金在其他维度的排名均低于平均水平。掘金迫在眉睫的奢侈税线问题和缺失的选秀权意味着，这可能是他们在向西部新兴势力让位前的最后一次最佳机会。——佩尔顿

10. 圣安东尼奥马刺

上次排名： 10

圣安东尼奥马刺保住了第10的位置，这得益于他们的阵容中拥有堪称联盟最激动人心的年轻球员维克托·文班亚马，后场有连续两年选中的前五顺位新秀（迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)），以及通过交易得到的另一位明星球员德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)。马刺在几乎所有维度上都排在联盟前半区，最高排名为第八（球员），最低也不过第十六（市场）。——邦坦普斯

11. 明尼苏达森林狼

上次排名： 8

连续两年闯入分区决赛的森林狼，尽管在如何替代老将控卫小迈克·康利 (Mike Conley Jr.) 的问题上存在担忧，但在球员评分上仍高居第七。明尼苏达森林狼的问题在于薪金、选秀和市场维度，他们在这些方面的排名都未能超过第26位。森林狼将很难通过自由市场或选秀来提升阵容，而且明尼苏达并非一个能指望底薪球员做出贡献的市场。这使得2024年首轮秀罗勃·迪林厄姆 (Rob Dillingham) 和小特伦斯·香农 (Terrence Shannon Jr.) 的成长至关重要。——佩尔顿

12. 亚特兰大老鹰

上次排名： 23

老鹰已连续四个赛季未能突破首轮，自2015-16赛季以来胜场数从未超过48场，但他们的排名却上升了11位。这次跃升之所以引人注目，是因为圣安东尼奥马刺控制着老鹰未来两年的首轮选秀权，并且全明星后卫特雷·杨 (Trae Young) 可能在下个休赛期成为自由球员。然而，亚特兰大老鹰在每个维度都排进了前15，这主要归功于今年夏天几笔精明的交易。老鹰在原有杨、戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels)、杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 和扎卡里·里萨谢 (Zaccharie Risacher) 的阵容基础上，又引进了克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)、尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 和卢克·肯纳德 (Luke Kennard)。更重要的是，亚特兰大老鹰还控制着2026年密尔沃基雄鹿或新奥尔良鹈鹕中顺位更优的那个首轮签。——马克斯

13. 波士顿凯尔特人

上次排名： 2

一年前，凯尔特人还是卫冕冠军，并有望在未来几年统治东部。然而，杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 在五月份遭遇跟腱撕裂，波士顿凯尔特人未能突破第二轮，并在今年夏天交易走了波尔津吉斯和朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)。这提醒我们NBA的局势变化之快，尽管拥有塔图姆、杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和德里克·怀特 (Derrick White) 组成的核心——外加主教练乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 和篮球运营总裁布拉德·史蒂文斯 (Brad Stevens) 这样的强大管理层——预示着球队有望迅速反弹，前提是塔图姆能在2026-27赛季如期恢复健康。——邦坦普斯

14. 迈阿密热火

上次排名： 17

尽管连续两次在季后赛首轮毫无竞争力地出局，热火的排名还是上升了。迈阿密热火在管理层、市场和薪金方面排名前十，助其排名上升了三位。随着吉米·巴特勒三世不再阵中，热火已不再是奢侈税球队，并预计在2026和2027年休赛期拥有消费能力。——马克斯

15. 印第安纳步行者

上次排名： 14

如果我们在步行者杀入NBA总决赛抢七大战的任何一个时间点进行排名，我们讨论的都会是他们应该在榜单前十中排多高。但从泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 的跟腱断裂开始，印第安纳步行者的未来遭受了重创。尽管哈利伯顿将在未来实力榜覆盖的最后两个赛季回归，但中锋迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 已经离队，他的离开再次引发了外界对球队所有权是否愿意支付奢侈税的质疑。——佩尔顿

16. 达拉斯独行侠

上次排名： 5

对于达拉斯-沃斯堡大都会区来说，这真是一段漫长而奇特的旅程。一年前，达拉斯独行侠刚刚打进NBA总决赛，阵中拥有联盟中最顶尖且即将步入巅峰的球员之一。然而，尼科·哈里森 (Nico Harrison) 在二月份出人意料地用卢卡·东契奇换来了安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)，几周后凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 跟腱撕裂，而达拉斯则惊人地在选秀乐透抽签中从第11顺位一跃成为状元，并选中了库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)。独行侠的乐透好运是他们没有在此次排名中进一步下滑的原因。——邦坦普斯

17. 孟菲斯灰熊

上次排名： 12

仅仅三年前，孟菲斯灰熊还曾连续两次在本榜单中排名第一。但随后，灰熊在2024年错失季后赛，并在今年首轮惨遭淘汰。这导致总经理扎克·克莱曼 (Zach Kleiman) 对阵容进行了重组，他将德斯蒙德·贝恩送至魔术，换回了多个选秀权。此举表明管理层认识到，之前版本的灰熊已无法赢得西部冠军。——邦坦普斯

18. 底特律活塞

上次排名： 29

这是底特律活塞自2017年以来在本榜单的最高排名，而在凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 迎来突破性的第四个赛季并成长为全明星级别的基石球员后，活塞的排名或许还应更高。底特律拥有薪金灵活性，可以在坎宁安、杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 和奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 的核心阵容周围进行补强，并且他们拥有自己所有的选秀权。如果下赛季能再次跻身东部前六，我们就有理由在明年的榜单中将活塞的排名大幅提升。——佩尔顿

19. 费城76人

上次排名： 4

一年前，费城76人签下了最佳自由球员保罗·乔治 (Paul George)，并希望这终于将是他们在东部联盟取得突破的赛季。然而，事与愿违，这变成了一场灾难：乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 几乎没有上场，乔治也因伤缺席了半个赛季，导致费城76人的战绩一落千丈，最终得以保住其前六顺位保护的首轮签。所有这一切导致了他们成为今年榜单中排名下滑幅度最大（15位）的球队。但费城的一切都取决于恩比德和乔治本赛季能否保持健康。未来三年，76人需要向他们支付超过1亿美元的薪水。——邦坦普斯

20. 多伦多猛龙

上次排名： 22

过去几个赛季对多伦多来说是动荡的，猛龙重塑了他们的阵容，交易走了2019年冠军队仅存的成员——弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet)、OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 和帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)——并用伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley)、RJ·巴雷特 (RJ Barrett) 和布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 取而代之。球队随后在今年夏天与任职多年的球队总裁马赛·乌杰里 (Masai Ujiri) 分道扬镳，而长期老板拉里·塔南鲍姆 (Larry Tanenbaum) 也将在明年将球队控制权移交给埃德·罗杰斯 (Ed Rogers)。猛龙通过留任备受尊敬的高管鲍比·韦伯斯特 (Bobby Webster) 接替乌杰里执掌篮球运营，恢复了一些稳定，但多伦多猛龙的阵容重塑是否成功仍有待观察。本赛季将说明很多问题。——邦坦普斯

21. 密尔沃基雄鹿

上次排名： 15

或多或少从扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 成为MVP的那一刻起，其他球队就一直在为他可能离队做准备。然而，在连续第三次季后赛首轮出局，且达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 在此期间跟腱断裂之后，密尔沃基雄鹿面临的威胁似乎比以往任何时候都更加严峻。雄鹿做出了一次创造性的调整，他们延伸支付了利拉德的合同并签下了迈尔斯·特纳。但密尔沃基雄鹿提升阵容的能力有限，这可能预示着阿德托昆博在雄鹿的辉煌生涯即将结束。而且在2031年之前，球队没有任何可控的选秀权，密尔沃基的重建之路可能会很缓慢。——佩尔顿

22. 波特兰开拓者

上次排名： 30

一年前，我们低估了开拓者的天赋。德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 的加入以及图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara) 和谢登·夏普 (Shaedon Sharpe) 的成长，帮助波特兰开拓者在附加赛资格争夺中保持竞争力，取得了自2020-21赛季以来的最佳战绩。开拓者随即通过交易引进了老将朱·霍勒迪和利拉德，后者将在他充满情感的回归之旅的第一个赛季里进行康复。波特兰希望这些新援能支持年轻天赋的成长，尤其是近期的乐透秀斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 和多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan)。——佩尔顿

23. 夏洛特黄蜂

上次排名： 26

排在FPR榜单的后十位并不意味着黄蜂停滞不前。夏洛特黄蜂正专注于他们五名身处新秀合同期的球员（布兰登·米勒 (Brandon Miller)、康·克努普尔 (Kon Knueppel)、蒂贾恩·萨劳恩 (Tidjane Salaun)、小尼克·史密斯 (Nick Smith Jr.)、利亚姆·麦克尼利 (Liam McNeeley)），同时积累选秀资产并保持薪金灵活性。黄蜂在未来七年拥有24个选秀权，其中包括11个首轮签，并且在未来两个休赛期可能拥有薪金空间。因此，夏洛特在选秀和薪金两个维度上都排进了前十。——马克斯

24. 犹他爵士

上次排名： 24

在他作为篮球运营总裁的第一个休赛期，奥斯汀·安吉 (Austin Ainge) 用5号签选中了埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey)，这表明爵士仍在采取长远规划。犹他爵士送走了老将后卫乔丹·克拉克森 (Jordan Clarkson) 和科林·塞克斯顿 (Collin Sexton) 以及首发前锋约翰·科林斯 (John Collins)，因此本赛季他们可能不再需要通过让关键球员轮休来“摆烂”。问题在于，犹他爵士的重建已进入第四年，但仍未培养出一位全明星级别的核心球员来与劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 搭档或取而代之。——佩尔顿

25. 萨克拉门托国王

上次排名： 18

两年时间里，萨克拉门托国王从拥有年度最佳教练（迈克·布朗）和年度最佳高管（蒙特·麦克奈尔 (Monte McNair)），取得48胜并锁定季后赛三号种子，沦落到连续在附加赛中失利。布朗和麦克奈尔已经离任，全明星球员德阿龙·福克斯被交易至圣安东尼奥，国王也不再被视为一支季后赛球队。与去年的排名相比下滑七位，是因为他们的阵容排名倒数十位，而管理层则排名垫底。然而，积极的一面是，萨克拉门托国王控制着自己未来七年的所有首轮签，以及来自圣安东尼奥（2027年，若1-16顺位）和明尼苏达（2031年，无保护）的首轮签。——马克斯

26. 华盛顿奇才

上次排名： 28

如果我们仅根据选秀资产和薪金灵活性来评判FPR，华盛顿奇才将名列前茅。奇才明年夏天可能拥有高达8000万美元的薪金空间，并在未来七年内手握10个首轮签和13个次轮签。然而，奇才之所以排在倒数五位，很大程度上是因为他们的阵容中有联盟最多的10名球员身背首轮新秀合同，包括比拉尔·库利巴利 (Bilal Coulibaly) 和亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr)。如果这些前首轮秀能在成长上迈出一大步，我们可能会看到奇才在这份榜单上实现跃升。——马克斯

27. 布鲁克林篮网

上次排名： 27

篮网去年夏天聘请主教练约迪·费尔南德斯 (Jordi Fernandez) 堪称一笔宝藏签约，他立刻证明了自己是一笔宝贵的资产。但是，篮网在去年夏天从休斯顿火箭回购了自己的选秀权后，显然将上赛季和本赛季的目标定为彻底摆烂，却成为几支在乐透抽签中运气不佳的球队之一，顺位掉到了第八。阵容被评为联盟最差的篮网，已经连续三年排在榜单的后十位。——邦坦普斯

28. 芝加哥公牛

上次排名： 25

从战绩来看，芝加哥公牛过去三个赛季分别取得了40、39和39场胜利，因此他们最终的排名不太可能如此之低。然而，很少有球队比公牛更没有希望成为总冠军争夺者，他们一直将目标优先定位于争夺附加赛资格，而非更宏大的抱负。芝加哥已经变得更年轻，核心从德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) -扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine) 转变为由科比·怀特 (Coby White)（25岁）和约什·吉迪 (Josh Giddey)（22岁）领导。公牛在明年夏天将拥有薪金灵活性，但我们不相信这支球队的管理层能最大化地利用好这个机会。——佩尔顿

29. 新奥尔良鹈鹕

上次排名： 16

新奥尔良的这个夏天可谓多事之秋。执掌球队多年的大卫·格里芬 (David Griffin) 被解雇，取而代之的是名人堂成员乔·杜马斯 (Joe Dumars)。随后，鹈鹕在选秀夜做出了惊人举动，不仅在第七顺位选中了杰里迈亚·菲尔斯 (Jeremiah Fears)，还用一个明年的无保护选秀权互换权与亚特兰大交易，在第13顺位选中了德里克·奎因 (Derik Queen)。这一举动可能在未来几年对两支球队都产生深远影响。因此，新奥尔良鹈鹕在本榜单16年的历史上排名最低。——邦坦普斯

30. 菲尼克斯太阳

上次排名： 19

就在三年前，菲尼克斯太阳还在FPR榜单中高居第三，并拥有坚实的年轻球员基础和未来选秀资产。如今，这个基础已不复存在，这主要归咎于凯文·杜兰特和布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal) 的交易。这两名球员都不再阵中，尽管菲尼克斯太阳并未陷入财务绝境，且仍然拥有全明星球员德文·布克 (Devin Booker)，但他们重返强队行列的道路尚不明朗。太阳在未来七年内没有可交易的首轮签，并且未来五年账上有2300万美元的死钱。一个积极的方面是，菲尼克斯的建队思路已经从围绕多名高薪老将转变为交易得到前首轮秀杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green)、马克·威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams) 以及在六月选秀中选中哈曼·马鲁阿奇 (Khaman Maluach)。——马克斯

各队完整评分结果

我们认为，最重要的维度是球队当前的阵容以及这些球员的未来潜力。该维度占每支NBA球队未来实力总评分（FPR）的50%，这个0-100分的评分决定了球队的最终排名。

同时，我们也考察了管理层、老板、教练、球队的消费习惯、薪金状况、城市和球队的声誉，以及我们预期球队未来拥有的选秀权。

以下是每个维度的完整评分和排名。

2025-26赛季NBA未来实力榜

球队 球员 排名 薪金 排名 选秀 排名 市场 排名 管理层 排名 FPR评分 排名
老鹰 54 14 62 9 71 7 59 11 62 11 57.5 12
凯尔特人 55 13 49 12 46 18 65 9 72 8 57.3 13
篮网 4 30 95 1 86 2 77 7 30 25 28.7 27
黄蜂 24 25 79 7 79 4 33 21 32 22 35.5 23
公牛 15 28 84 4 66 8 56 12 15 27 28.3 28
骑士 85 3 16 30 21 25 24 24 74 6 67.1 4
独行侠 57 11 25 24 39 21 59 10 38 20 50.1 16
掘金 84 4 25 25 10 29 40 18 37 21 61.2 9
活塞 49 17 76 8 60 13 24 25 45 18 49.3 18
勇士 61 10 40 18 53 17 84 4 78 5 63.2 6
火箭 87 2 36 21 79 5 65 8 78 4 78.7 2
步行者 51 15 40 20 56 14 32 22 73 7 52.5 15
快船 57 12 82 5 33 22 90 3 86 2 64.8 5
湖人 62 9 80 6 31 23 95 1 48 17 61.3 8
灰熊 50 16 43 17 66 8 30 23 51 14 49.4 17
热火 45 18 59 10 44 19 81 5 84 3 55.6 14
雄鹿 42 20 46 16 16 26 42 17 41 19 39.9 21
森林狼 74 7 24 26 11 28 17 30 62 10 58.1 11
鹈鹕 26 24 47 15 41 20 19 28 8 29 25.7 29
尼克斯 79 5 17 29 14 27 91 2 69 9 67.8 3
雷霆 97 1 19 28 87 1 18 29 93 1 82.5 1
魔术 75 6 22 27 28 24 49 15 59 13 61.7 7
76人 42 19 33 23 56 14 52 14 49 16 44.5 19
太阳 23 26 33 22 8 30 79 6 11 28 25.0 30
开拓者 34 22 55 11 62 10 37 20 25 26 36.6 22
国王 33 23 48 13 55 16 20 27 8 30 30.9 25
马刺 67 8 48 14 62 11 46 16 51 15 60.7 10
猛龙 40 21 40 19 62 12 54 13 31 24 41.6 20
爵士 16 27 84 3 82 3 22 26 61 12 34.8 24
奇才 12 29 94 2 78 6 38 19 31 23 29.8 26
点击查看原文：NBA Future Power Rankings - new three-year outlooks for all 30 teams

NBA Future Power Rankings - new three-year outlooks for all 30 teams

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How does your NBA team look heading into the 2025-26 season? What about in 2028?

The NBA Future Power Rankings are ESPN’s projection of the on-court success expected for each team over the next three seasons: 2025-26, 2026-27 and 2027-28.

Can the Oklahoma City Thunder become the first team to break an NBA-record streak of eight consecutive seasons with a different champion? How quickly can Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs force their way into the title conversation?

And what about the Los Angeles Lakers’ chances moving forward into the Luka Doncic era of the franchise?

To determine the rankings, we asked ESPN analysts Kevin Pelton, Bobby Marks and Tim Bontemps to rate teams in five categories and rank them relative to the rest of the league. (An explanation of each category and a full view of all 30 teams’ ratings is at the bottom of these rankings.)

Here is our latest update ahead of the 2025-26 season, featuring a repeat at No. 1 but lots of movement afterward, including nine franchises seeing their ranking rise (four) or fall (five) by double digits from last year’s edition of this exercise.

Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTA | WAS

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Previous ranking: 1

The question wasn’t whether the Thunder would top the rankings but rather how they would rate historically. Based on a championship-winning young core (no starter over age 27) and a top-rated collection of incoming extra draft picks, Oklahoma City has the highest FPR for any team since the Kevin Durant-era Golden State Warriors. After agreeing to a supermax extension with reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rookie extensions for Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the Thunder will be hard-pressed to retain all their role players. Nobody is better positioned to replace them. – Pelton

2. Houston Rockets

Previous ranking: 7

Houston is proof of how quickly these rankings can shift. The Rockets were among our bottom-five teams in four of the five rankings from May 2021 through October 2023, and they never finished higher than 22nd. But last year, the Rockets leapt to seventh after hiring coach Ime Udoka and amassing one of the best young cores in the league. The addition of future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant also helps, as Houston lands behind its Western Conference rivals thanks to top-five rankings in players (second), management (fourth) and draft assets (fifth). – Bontemps

3. New York Knicks

Previous ranking: 3

The Knicks hold steady after reaching their first conference finals in a quarter century but falling short against the Indiana Pacers in six games. New York, which has had its highest ranking in back-to-back years thanks to top-10 finishes in players (fifth), market (second) and management (ninth) after replacing coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. – Bontemps

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Previous ranking: 13

We didn’t predict Cleveland’s evolution from also-rans in the East to legitimate contenders. Only the Thunder surpassed the Cavaliers’ 64 wins last season, and although they stumbled in the conference semifinals, the East looks wide open for Cleveland this season. Already in the salary cap’s second apron, the Cavaliers are last in financial flexibility. With their four core players under contract long term, however, Cleveland should get value in trade while saving money to retool around All-Stars Evan Mobley (24) and Donovan Mitchell (29). – Pelton

5. LA Clippers

Previous ranking: 20

A 15-spot jump from the last FPR is largely fueled by a top-five ranking in money, market and management. As for the roster, the Clippers are working on two timelines over the next three seasons. The current version is a win-now team that features 11 out of its 14 players, including Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, under contract through 2026-27. The second version boasts flexibility to reshape the roster, starting in the 2027 offseason. With only center Ivica Zubac on a guaranteed contract, LA could boast up to $140 million in cap space that summer. The Clippers are under investigation for salary cap circumvention; if the allegations are proven true, the penalties will have a significant impact on where they stand in these rankings. – Marks

6. Golden State Warriors

Previous ranking: 9

A team featuring three players 35 or older and under contract for only the next two seasons should be a cause of concern. But if the 20-7 record after the All-Star break and first-round playoff series win against Houston were indications, then there is some staying power for Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler III and the rest of the Warriors’ roster. Because of the great unknown post-Curry in 2027, this ranking is likely the high-water mark with this group. – Marks

7. Orlando Magic

Previous ranking: 7

The Magic traded for Desmond Bane and signed Paolo Banchero to a five-year extension over the summer. However, those transactions have Orlando holding steady in this spot from the last ranking. Orlando is maintaining its ranking because it ranks 27th in money and 24th in the draft. In the next three seasons, the Magic are committing $450 million in guaranteed contracts to Bane, Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs. They also have only one future first (2032) that they are allowed to trade in the next seven years. – Marks

8. Los Angeles Lakers

Previous ranking: 21

Even with LeBron James’ future unclear, the Lakers still moved up 13 spots from the last ranking. The considerable jump is largely because of trading for Luka Doncic in February and then extending the All-NBA guard in August. The security of having Doncic under contract for at least the next three seasons, the attraction of the Los Angeles market and significant cap space in the next two seasons have the Lakers positioned well. – Marks

9. Denver Nuggets

Previous ranking: 6

The Nuggets still rank fourth in the players category, reflecting their potential to be the biggest threat to the Thunder in the West after losing a seven-game series to Oklahoma City last spring. After changing its coach and GM late in the regular season, however, Denver ranks below average in the other categories. The Nuggets’ looming apron issues and missing draft picks mean this might be their last best chance before yielding to the West’s rising powers. – Pelton

10. San Antonio Spurs

Previous ranking: 10

San Antonio hangs on to the 10th spot thanks to a roster that features arguably the game’s most exciting young player in Victor Wembanyama, a pair of back-to-back top-five selections in the backcourt (Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle) and another star acquired via trade in De’Aaron Fox. The Spurs rank in the upper half of the league in nearly every category, finishing no higher than eighth (players) but also no lower than 16th (market). – Bontemps

11. Minnesota Timberwolves

Previous ranking: 8

Coming off back-to-back conference finals appearances, the Timberwolves rank seventh in player score despite concerns about how they’ll replace veteran point guard Mike Conley Jr. Minnesota’s issues lie in the money, draft and market categories, where it is no better than 26th. The Timberwolves will be challenged to upgrade their roster through free agency or the draft, and Minnesota isn’t in a market that can count on minimum contributors. That makes the development of 2024 first-round picks Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. paramount. – Pelton

12. Atlanta Hawks

Previous ranking: 23

The Hawks have failed to advance past the first round in four straight seasons, have not won more than 48 games since 2015-16 but moved up 11 spots. The jump is noticeable because San Antonio controls the Hawks’ first-round pick in the next two years and All-Star guard Trae Young could become a free agent next offseason. However, Atlanta ranks in the top 15 in every category, largely because of several shrewd transactions this summer. The Hawks added Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard to a roster that already featured Young, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher. More importantly, Atlanta controls the more-favorable 2026 first-round pick of Milwaukee or New Orleans. – Marks

13. Boston Celtics

Previous ranking: 2

A year ago, the Celtics were the defending champions en route to dominating the Eastern Conference for years. Then, Jayson Tatum tore his Achilles in May, Boston failed to get out of the second round and the team traded Porzingis and Jrue Holiday this summer. It’s a reminder of how quickly things can change in the NBA, even though a core of Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White – plus strong management in coach Joe Mazzulla and president of basketball operations Brad Stevens – portends a quick bounce-back, assuming Tatum is healthy, as expected, in 2026-27. – Bontemps

14. Miami Heat

Previous ranking: 17

Despite two straight noncompetitive first-round losses, the Heat moved up. Miami ranking in the top 10 in management, market and money helped its three-spot jump. With Jimmy Butler III no longer on the roster, the Heat are not a luxury tax team and project to have spending power in the 2026 and 2027 offseasons. – Marks

15. Indiana Pacers

Previous ranking: 14

Had we done these rankings at almost any point during the Pacers’ run to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, we would have been debating how high they belonged in the top 10. Starting with Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles rupture, Indiana’s future has taken a big hit. Although Haliburton will be back for the final two seasons covered by the future rankings, center Myles Turner is gone and his departure renews questions about ownership’s willingness to pay the luxury tax. – Pelton

16. Dallas Mavericks

Previous ranking: 5

What a long, strange trip in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. A year ago, Dallas was coming off an NBA Finals berth, featuring one of the best players in the sport about to enter his prime. Then, Nico Harrison stunningly swapped Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis in February, Kyrie Irving subsequently tore his ACL a few weeks later and Dallas shockingly jumped from 11th to No. 1 in the draft lottery and selected Cooper Flagg. The Mavericks’ lottery luck is why they didn’t fall further down these rankings. – Bontemps

17. Memphis Grizzlies

Previous ranking: 12

It was only three years ago when Memphis had back-to-back No. 1 rankings on this list. Then, the Grizzlies missed the playoffs in 2024 and got routed in the first round this year. It led to a roster reset by general manager Zach Kleiman, who sent Desmond Bane to the Magic for multiple draft picks. The move is a recognition that the previous iteration of the Grizzlies wasn’t going to win the West. – Bontemps

18. Detroit Pistons

Previous ranking: 29

This is Detroit’s best finish here since 2017, and the Pistons arguably belong higher after Cade Cunningham emerged as an All-NBA anchor during a breakthrough fourth campaign. Detroit has cap flexibility to add around a core of Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson and owns all its picks. Another season in the East’s top six should convince us to move the Pistons much higher next year. – Pelton

19. Philadelphia 76ers

Previous ranking: 4

A year ago, Philadelphia had the best free agent signing in Paul George, and hoped that this would finally be the season for a breakthrough in the Eastern Conference. Instead, it turned into a disaster, with Joel Embiid barely playing and George missing half the season because of injuries, and Philadelphia plummeting to where it kept its top-6 protected first-round pick. All of this led to the biggest drop (15 spots) of any team in this year’s rankings. But everything in Philly hinges on whether Embiid and George can stay healthy this season. The Sixers owe them over $100 million over the next three years. – Bontemps

20. Toronto Raptors

Previous ranking: 22

It has been a tumultuous couple of seasons in Toronto, where the Raptors have remade their roster, trading the remaining players from their 2019 title team – Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam – and replacing them with Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Brandon Ingram. The team then moved on from longtime team president Masai Ujiri this summer, and longtime owner Larry Tanenbaum ceded control of the team to Ed Rogers next year. The Raptors regained some stability by keeping well-respected executive Bobby Webster atop basketball operations in Ujiri’s place, but it remains to be seen if Toronto’s retooling was successful. This season will tell a lot. – Bontemps

21. Milwaukee Bucks

Previous ranking: 15

Other teams have been preparing for Giannis Antetokounmpo to be available more or less since he emerged as an MVP. Still, the threat level seems higher than ever in Milwaukee after a third consecutive first-round loss, during which Damian Lillard ruptured his Achilles. The Bucks made a creative pivot, stretching Lillard’s contract and signing Myles Turner. But Milwaukee has limited ability to upgrade the roster, which could spell the end of Antetokounmpo’s incredible run with the Bucks. And with no draft picks under team control until 2031, a Milwaukee rebuild could slow. – Pelton

22. Portland Trail Blazers

Previous ranking: 30

We underestimated the Blazers’ talent a year ago. The addition of Deni Avdija and development of Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe helped Portland stay in the play-in hunt during the team’s best finish since 2020-21. The Blazers responded by acquiring veterans Jrue Holiday and Lillard, the latter of whom will spend the first season of his emotional return rehabbing. Portland is hoping the newcomers support the development of young talent, most notably recent lottery picks Scoot Henderson and Donovan Clingan. – Pelton

23. Charlotte Hornets

Previous ranking: 26

Ranking in FPR’s bottom 10 does not mean the Hornets are stuck in neutral. Charlotte is focusing on its five players on rookie contracts (Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Tidjane Salaun, Nick Smith Jr., Liam McNeeley) while accumulating draft assets and having financial flexibility. The Hornets have 24 draft picks in the next seven years, including 11 firsts, and could have cap space in the next two offseasons. As a result, Charlotte ranks in the top 10 in both draft and money. – Marks

24. Utah Jazz

Previous ranking: 24

In his first offseason as president of basketball operations, Austin Ainge signaled that the Jazz are still taking a long-term approach after drafting Ace Bailey with the No. 5 pick. Utah moved on from veteran guards Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton and starting forward John Collins, so the Jazz might not need to sit key players to rack up losses this season. The problem is Utah’s rebuild, which is entering Year 4, hasn’t produced an All-Star centerpiece to team up with or supplant Lauri Markkanen. – Pelton

25. Sacramento Kings

Previous ranking: 18

In two years, Sacramento went from having the Coach of the Year (Mike Brown) and Executive of the Year (Monte McNair), winning 48 games and earning the third seed in the playoffs, to losing in consecutive play-in tournaments. Brown and McNair are gone, All-Star De’Aaron Fox was traded to San Antonio and the Kings are no longer considered a playoff team. The regression in seven spots from last year’s rankings is because of a bottom-10 roster and a management group that ranks last. The positive, however, is that Sacramento controls its first in the next seven years and the firsts from San Antonio (2027, if 1-16) and Minnesota (2031, unprotected). – Marks

26. Washington Wizards

Previous ranking: 28

If we were basing the FPR on draft assets and cap flexibility, Washington would rank near the top. The Wizards could have up to $80 million in cap space next summer, and over the next seven years, the franchise boasts 10 firsts and 13 seconds. The Wizards are in the bottom five, however, largely because of a roster that features a league-high 10 players on first-round rookie contracts, including Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr. If the former first-round picks take a big step in development, we could see the Wizards take a jump on this list. – Marks

27. Brooklyn Nets

Previous ranking: 27

The Nets struck gold last summer when they hired coach Jordi Fernandez, who immediately proved himself to be an asset. But the Nets, who clearly targeted last season and this season to bottom out after reacquiring their draft picks from the Houston Rockets last summer, were one of several teams to have bad luck in the lottery by falling to eighth. The Nets, who have the league’s worst roster, are in the bottom 10 for a third straight year. – Bontemps

28. Chicago Bulls

Previous ranking: 25

In terms of wins, it’s unlikely Chicago will finish this low after posting 40, 39 and 39 wins, respectively, over the past three seasons. Yet, few teams have less hope of becoming a contender than the Bulls, who have prioritized competing for the play-in over grander ambitions. Chicago has gotten younger, transitioning from a DeMar DeRozan-Zach LaVine core to one led by Coby White (25) and Josh Giddey (22). The Bulls will have cap flexibility next summer, but we don’t trust this organization to maximize that opportunity. – Pelton

29. New Orleans Pelicans

Previous ranking: 16

It has been an eventful summer in New Orleans, where David Griffin was let go after running the team for several years and was replaced by Hall of Famer Joe Dumars. The Pelicans then made a massive draft night swing by taking not only Jeremiah Fears seventh overall, but trading an unprotected swap in next year’s draft to Atlanta to take Derik Queen 13th. That move could have ramifications for both teams for years to come. As a result, New Orleans has its lowest landing spot in 16 years of these rankings. – Bontemps

30. Phoenix Suns

Previous ranking: 19

It was only three years ago when Phoenix ranked third in the FPR and had a solid foundation of young players and future draft assets. That foundation no longer exists, thanks largely to the Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal trades. Both players are no longer on the roster, and though Phoenix isn’t in financial purgatory and still has All-Star Devin Booker, its path back to relevancy is unclear. The Suns have no tradable firsts in the next seven years and have $23 million in dead money on their books in the next five years. One positive is that Phoenix has shifted away from building around multiple high-priced veterans to trading for former first-round picks Jalen Green, Mark Williams and selecting Khaman Maluach in June’s draft. – Marks

Full team-by-team results

We determined that the most important category is a team’s current roster and the future potential of those players. That category accounts for 50% of each NBA team’s overall Future Power Rating, the 0-100 score each team receives to determine its overall ranking.

At the same time, we looked at management, ownership, coaching, a team’s spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expect the team to have in the future.

The full ratings and rankings for every category are below.

NBA Future Power Rankings 2025-26

Team Players Rank Money Rank Draft Rank Market Rank Mgmt Rank FPR Rank
Atlanta 54 14 62 9 71 7 59 11 62 11 57.5 12
Boston 55 13 49 12 46 18 65 9 72 8 57.3 13
Brooklyn 4 30 95 1 86 2 77 7 30 25 28.7 27
Charlotte 24 25 79 7 79 4 33 21 32 22 35.5 23
Chicago 15 28 84 4 66 8 56 12 15 27 28.3 28
Cleveland 85 3 16 30 21 25 24 24 74 6 67.1 4
Dallas 57 11 25 24 39 21 59 10 38 20 50.1 16
Denver 84 4 25 25 10 29 40 18 37 21 61.2 9
Detroit 49 17 76 8 60 13 24 25 45 18 49.3 18
Golden State 61 10 40 18 53 17 84 4 78 5 63.2 6
Houston 87 2 36 21 79 5 65 8 78 4 78.7 2
Indiana 51 15 40 20 56 14 32 22 73 7 52.5 15
LA Clippers 57 12 82 5 33 22 90 3 86 2 64.8 5
L.A. Lakers 62 9 80 6 31 23 95 1 48 17 61.3 8
Memphis 50 16 43 17 66 8 30 23 51 14 49.4 17
Miami 45 18 59 10 44 19 81 5 84 3 55.6 14
Milwaukee 42 20 46 16 16 26 42 17 41 19 39.9 21
Minnesota 74 7 24 26 11 28 17 30 62 10 58.1 11
New Orleans 26 24 47 15 41 20 19 28 8 29 25.7 29
New York 79 5 17 29 14 27 91 2 69 9 67.8 3
Oklahoma City 97 1 19 28 87 1 18 29 93 1 82.5 1
Orlando 75 6 22 27 28 24 49 15 59 13 61.7 7
Philadelphia 42 19 33 23 56 14 52 14 49 16 44.5 19
Phoenix 23 26 33 22 8 30 79 6 11 28 25.0 30
Portland 34 22 55 11 62 10 37 20 25 26 36.6 22
Sacramento 33 23 48 13 55 16 20 27 8 30 30.9 25
San Antonio 67 8 48 14 62 11 46 16 51 15 60.7 10
Toronto 40 21 40 19 62 12 54 13 31 24 41.6 20
Utah 16 27 84 3 82 3 22 26 61 12 34.8 24
Washington 12 29 94 2 78 6 38 19 31 23 29.8 26

By NBA insiders | ESPN, via ESPN