By Zach Kram | ESPN, 2025-09-05 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
当最新一届星光熠熠的成员于本周末正式进入篮球名人堂时，我们不禁将目光投向未来，思索着哪些现役球员在退役后可能获此殊荣。
历史表明，大量现役球星终有一天将在斯普林菲尔德拥有一块属于自己的荣誉牌匾。从1955赛季到2005赛季，每个赛季都有26至44名球员最终入选名人堂，平均每年34人。
基于这一先例，让我们来盘点一下2025-26赛季最有可能入选名人堂的50名球员。他们不会全部入选——这就是为什么我们选择广撒网，而不是仅仅聚焦于34人——但这些人选最有机会在21世纪30年代和40年代的入选典礼上大放异彩。
第一档：NBA 75大巨星，锁定名人堂席位
扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)
斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)
安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis)
凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)
詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)
勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)
科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)
达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard)*
克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul)
拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克 (Russell Westbrook)*\ *
* 利拉德因跟腱撕裂正在恢复中，可能不会出战2025-26赛季。
** 威斯布鲁克目前尚未签约，但似乎很可能在2025-26赛季为某支球队效力。
这第一批未来的名人堂成员都已在2021年入选了NBA 75大巨星阵容。如果他们已位列历史75佳球员之中，那么他们注定将首年即入选名人堂。我们无需再花费时间解释为何这些活着的传奇终有一天会在斯普林菲尔德受到表彰。
第二档：非75大巨星中的锁定者
尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)
凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving)
德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green)
克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson)
保罗·乔治 (Paul George)
吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III)
乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid)
谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)
如果75大巨星评选委员会晚一年召开会议，约基奇很可能已经入选这份历史级名单。如今，他已是三届MVP、两次MVP评选第二名以及一次总决赛MVP得主，他入选名人堂的资格和任何人一样稳固。
欧文九次入选全明星，有望在两个赛季内生涯总得分突破20000分，并且投进了NBA历史上最重要的投篮之一。这显然足以将他送入名人堂。他多年的总决赛对手，格林和汤普森，同样是轻松入选的人选，这既得益于他们对王朝之旅的贡献，也因为他们个人分别被誉为一代人中最伟大的防守者和历史第二伟大的三分射手。
凭借九次全明星和六次最佳阵容的履历，乔治也锁定了名人堂席位。NBA历史上所有至少六次入选最佳阵容的退役球员都已进入名人堂。仅有五次最佳阵容经历的巴特勒尚未达到这一门槛，但他作为两支总决赛球队的核心球员，也会获得加分。
接下来是恩比德和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，他们凭借MVP奖项已是稳操胜券。德里克·罗斯 (Derrick Rose) 是唯一一位未入选名人堂的前MVP退役球员，但与恩比德和吉尔杰斯-亚历山大不同，罗斯再也没有入选过最佳阵容。如此之高且持久的巅峰期是通往斯普林菲尔德的保证。
最后，戈贝尔手握四座年度最佳防守球员奖杯，与历史纪录持平。如果同样四次获奖的迪肯贝·穆托姆博 (Dikembe Mutombo) 和本·华莱士 (Ben Wallace) 都是名人堂成员，那么戈贝尔也必将入选。
第三档：前途无量的年轻球星
卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)
杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum)*
安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)
维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)
* 塔图姆因跟腱撕裂正在恢复中，可能不会出战2025-26赛季。
尽管东契奇和塔图姆都才二十五六岁，但他们或许已经锁定了名人堂席位。前者已五次入选最佳阵容一阵，而后者则有四次一阵外加一次三阵。
然而，目前来看，由于各自存在一个小瑕疵，他们可能还稍逊于吉尔杰斯-亚历山大这类球员。对东契奇而言，是缺少一座总冠军；对塔图姆而言，则是他右跟腱伤势带来的不确定性，以及他能否恢复到最佳阵容的水准。根据Basketball-Reference网站的名人堂概率预测工具，如果他们今天就退役，东契奇和塔图姆的入选概率分别为45%和59%。这些数字在未来几年肯定会上升——但他们还不能算作是板上钉钉。
这一档的后两位球员更年轻，成就也略少，但他们仍有资格与后面档次中那些二十出头的年轻球星区分开来。爱德华兹在23岁前的生涯总得分榜上排名第五（仅次于勒布朗、杜兰特、卡梅隆·安东尼和东契奇），并已连续两个赛季入选最佳阵容二阵。历史上只有少数几位退役球员——布雷克·格里芬 (Blake Griffin)、凯文·约翰逊 (Kevin Johnson)、马奎斯·约翰逊 (Marques Johnson) 和拉尔夫·比尔德 (Ralph Beard)（因打假球丑闻被禁赛）——在23岁前两次入选最佳阵容但至今未能进入名人堂。
把文班亚马列入这个组别似乎有些为时过早，毕竟他职业生涯只打了117场比赛。但只要健康允许，凭借他在如此年轻时就展现出的全面技术，想必每一位NBA球员、高管和球迷都会将文班亚马视为未来的名人堂成员。
第四档：处于边缘地带的老将
德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan)
凯尔·洛瑞 (Kyle Lowry)
朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)
凯文·乐福 (Kevin Love)
艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford)*
卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)
* 霍福德目前尚未签约，但他很可能在2025-26赛季继续征战。
尽管Basketball-Reference网站根据德罗赞目前的履历给出了48%的名人堂入选概率，但他可能更接近锁定席位，而非处于边缘。历史上只有四位生涯总得分超过20000分的退役球员未能入选，而且他们的得分都只是刚过两万：拉马库斯·阿尔德里奇 (LaMarcus Aldridge)（20,558分）、乔·约翰逊 (Joe Johnson)（20,407分）、汤姆·钱伯斯 (Tom Chambers)（20,049分）和安托万·贾米森 (Antawn Jamison)（20,042分）。作为近期退役的球员，阿尔德里奇和约翰逊也可能很快当选。
与此同时，德罗赞的得分已经高达25,292分，并且还在继续增长。他的季后赛履历不算亮眼，但德罗赞的耐用性和累积数据应该能将他送进斯普林菲尔德。
后卫洛瑞和霍勒迪的情况非常相似，虽然他们的基础数据可能看起来不够名人堂级别，但作为天生的赢家和备受尊敬的全能贡献者，他们应该会获得加分。
乐福有点像大前锋版的洛瑞和霍勒迪，他五次入选全明星，手握NBA总冠军和奥运金牌，生涯得分超过15,000分。不过，乐福的巅峰期远不如这两位后卫长久——自2017-18赛季以来，他单赛季得分再未超过1,007分——这可能会影响他最终入选的机会。
和乐福一样，霍福德也是五次入选全明星并拥有NBA总冠军。但与乐福不同的是，霍福德的巅峰高度较低，可他直到三十多岁的年纪依然是冠军级别球队的贡献者。篮球名人堂会将球员在各级别篮球赛事的表现都纳入考量，这一点可能会极大地帮助霍福德，这要归功于他在佛罗里达大学时期连续两年夺得NCAA冠军的经历。在“打一年就走”的时代，很少有球员能凭借NCAA履历为自己的名人堂评选增添重要砝码——霍福德或许是个例外。
最后，唐斯比这个组别的其他球员年轻半个十年，但他又不完全适合名单上的其他任何组别。随着他即将步入30岁并已在NBA征战10个赛季，他当然算得上是一名老将。从积极方面看，唐斯拥有令人印象深刻的统计数据。他是一名身高7英尺、生涯三分命中率高达40%的球员，也是联盟历史上仅有的22位生涯场均得分20+、篮板10+的球员之一；其他21人要么已经入选名人堂，要么仍在现役，要么因打假球丑闻被禁赛（50年代球星阿历克斯·格罗扎 (Alex Groza)）。
从不利方面看，唐斯的荣誉——包括一座年度最佳新秀奖杯、五次全明星和三次最佳阵容三阵——尚未达到名人堂标准，而且他的季后赛战绩也乏善可陈。综合来看，唐斯似乎还需要几个强劲的赛季才能进入锁定区域。若能帮助尼克斯队杀入总决赛，无疑将大有裨益。
第五档：29岁，处在十字路口的球员
杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)
多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)
德文·布克 (Devin Booker)
多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis)
杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)
这是一批有趣的球员，他们都将在今年十月底前年满29岁，都有一到两次的最佳阵容经历，并且根据他们巅峰期的剩余表现，都有相当大的机会入选名人堂。
布伦森是这个群体中最新崛起的球员，他大器晚成，在过去两个赛季中均入选全明星并进入MVP榜前十。这位尼克斯队长还有很长的路要走——他的生涯总得分尚未达到10,000分——但他正处于上升期，和唐斯一样，如果他能带领尼克斯队在相对孱弱的东部脱颖而出杀入总决赛，他本赛季就可能取得巨大飞跃。
另一位可能利用东部实力较弱这一优势的球员是米切尔，他若能做到这一点，将弥补其履历上最明显的缺陷：尽管常规赛战绩斐然，个人季后赛数据也很出色，但米切尔从未进入过分区决赛。尽管如此，凭借连续六次入选全明星和上赛季的最佳阵容一阵，米切尔为未来入选名人堂奠定了坚实的基础。
在西部，布克仅有两次最佳阵容经历，且目前球队处境糟糕，但他自青少年时期进入联盟以来所展现出的稳定性，使他在28岁前的生涯总得分榜上排名第十，达到16,452分。斯蒂芬·马布里 (Stephon Marbury)（排名第19）是该榜单前20名中唯一既未入选名人堂也非锁定人选的球员。十年后，布克可能会走出一条类似德罗赞的名人堂之路，用足够高的总得分来掩盖他球员档案中的任何瑕疵。
萨博尼斯也可能走上一条类似德罗赞的“数据积累者”道路，以期与他的父亲阿尔维达斯 (Arvydas) 一同入选名人堂，后者主要凭借其国际赛场的成就入选。小萨博尼斯仅三次入选全明星，两次入选最佳阵容，但他不断累积得分、篮板和助攻。他生涯已拿下68次三双——其中50次是在萨克拉门托的三个完整赛季里取得的——萨博尼斯有望达成百次三双的里程碑，这在NBA历史上只有六名球员做到过。（东契奇几乎肯定会比萨博尼斯先达到100次，阿德托昆博也可能如此。）
作为这个群体的最后一名成员，布朗的荣誉架上有一项独一无二且极具分量的奖项：总决赛MVP，这几乎是最终入选的保证。塞德里克·麦克斯韦 (Cedric Maxwell) 和安德烈·伊戈达拉 (Andre Iguodala)（尚未获得参选资格）是唯二未入选名人堂的退役总决赛MVP。
然而，大多数总决赛MVP的整体履历要比布朗丰富得多，后者仅一次入选最佳阵容，且从未成为过自己球队的最佳球员。和这个档次的其他球员一样，他仍需努力——随着塔图姆因跟腱撕裂缺阵，他将有机会在即将到来的赛季中作为凯尔特人队的头号得分手来证明自己。
第六档：几年后再看
泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton)*
杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)
切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)
埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)
凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)
保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero)
锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson)
贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant)
特雷·杨 (Trae Young)
拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball)
斯科蒂·巴恩斯 (Scottie Barnes)
阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun)
泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)
阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)
库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)
* 哈利伯顿因跟腱撕裂正在恢复中，可能不会出战2025-26赛季。
在分析可能走上名人堂之路的年轻球员时，我们决定采取“多多益善”的策略。相比那些更出色、更成熟但职业生涯已过大半却仍未达到精英水平的球员，我们更容易想象这个组别的球员实现飞跃，达到名人堂级别。
换句话说：像卡斯尔这样的球员今天比帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam) 更出色吗？绝对不是。但西亚卡姆已经31岁，根据Basketball-Reference的数据，他目前入选名人堂的概率仅为2%，而卡斯尔才20岁。因此，这位新科年度最佳新秀在他职业生涯的某个阶段达到名人堂水平的可能性更大。
所以，我们囊括了过去五年内进入联盟并入选过全明星的所有球员，外加那位看起来最有可能很快首次入选全明星的年轻人（汤普森）。我们不会详细介绍这个组别中的每一位球员，但让我们来分析一些最有趣的案例。
弗拉格甚至还未在NBA首秀，但考虑到他作为状元秀的潜力——更不用说是一位如此备受期待的状元秀——他未来入选名人堂的概率已经接近50%。以下是按年代划分的状元秀中未来名人堂成员的数量：
1960年代: 4位
1970年代: 4位
1980年代: 5位
1990年代: 4位
2000年代: 2位 (外加勒布朗，可能还有格里芬和罗斯)
2010年代的状元秀可能无法达到历史平均水平，只有两位锁定者（戴维斯和欧文）和一个概率五五开的案例（唐斯）。与此同时，安东尼·本内特 (Anthony Bennett)、本·西蒙斯 (Ben Simmons) 和马克尔·富尔茨 (Markelle Fultz) 已经可以从名人堂名单上划掉，而安德鲁·威金斯 (Andrew Wiggins) 和德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 从未入选过最佳阵容。威廉姆森也一样——但他年仅25岁，已两次入选全明星，并且只要能保持持续的健康，他至少有潜力去统治比赛，因此仍值得将他作为一位长期的名人堂候选人来提及。
他之后的几位状元秀则有更好的前景。我们已经讨论过爱德华兹和文班亚马，而全明星球员坎宁安和班凯罗在职业生涯早期也走在正确的轨道上，随着他们接近巅峰期，还有充足的成长空间。
最后，随着俄克拉荷马雷霆队追逐联盟的下一个王朝，威廉姆斯和霍姆格伦可能成为吉尔杰斯-亚历山大身边的“汤普森和格林”。威廉姆斯在他生涯的第三个赛季就同时入选了最佳阵容和最佳防守阵容，而霍姆格伦如果能出战足够多的比赛，应该会成为最佳防守阵容的常客。
鉴于历史上任何一个赛季平均有34名现役名人堂级别的球员，这意味着如果均匀分布，每支球队大约会有一名名人堂成员。但当然，NBA的分布并不均匀，像达拉斯独行侠这样的球队下赛季很可能同时拥有四位名人堂级别的球员（戴维斯、欧文、汤普森和弗拉格）。而雷霆队的非凡之处在于，他们不仅将同时拥有三位潜在的未来名人堂成员，而且他们都还很年轻，共同成长，并互相帮助，以期成为历史级的伟大球员。
点击查看原文：Basketball Hall of Fame - Which stars are next? Locks, bubble watch
Basketball Hall of Fame - Which stars are next? Locks, bubble watch
As the latest star-studded class enters the Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend, we can’t help but look to the future and wonder which active players might receive the honor after they retire.
History suggests a whole lot of current stars will receive a plaque in Springfield one day. Each season from 1955 through 2005, between 26 and 44 players went on to become Hall of Famers, with an average of 34 per year.
With that precedent in mind, let’s identify the 50 players from the 2025-26 season who are most likely to become Hall of Famers. They won’t all make it – that’s why we’re casting a wide net instead of zooming in on just 34 – but these selections have the best chance of highlighting induction weekends throughout the 2030s and 2040s.
Group 1: NBA 75th Anniversary Team locks
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Stephen Curry
Anthony Davis
Kevin Durant
James Harden
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Damian Lillard*
Chris Paul
Russell Westbrook**
* Lillard might not play in 2025-26, as he recovers from an Achilles tear.
** Westbrook is currently unsigned but seems likely to play somewhere in 2025-26.
This first group of future Hall of Famers made the NBA’s 75th Anniversary Team in 2021, and if they’re among the 75 best players ever, then they’re guaranteed first-ballot inductees. We don’t need to spend any more time explaining why these living legends will be honored in Springfield one day.
Group 2: Non-Top-75 locks
Nikola Jokic
Kyrie Irving
Draymond Green
Klay Thompson
Paul George
Jimmy Butler III
Joel Embiid
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Rudy Gobert
Had the 75th anniversary voting committee convened just a year later, Jokic probably would have made the historical roster. Now a three-time MVP, a two-time award runner-up and a Finals MVP, he’s as much a Hall of Fame lock as anyone.
Irving is a nine-time All-Star, should reach 20,000 career points in another two seasons and made one of the most important shots in NBA history. That’s clearly enough to push him into the Hall. His longtime Finals rivals, Green and Thompson, are easy choices, as well, because of both their contributions to a dynastic run and their individual claims as arguably the greatest defender of a generation and the second-greatest 3-point shooter ever, respectively.
With nine All-Star appearances and six All-NBA nods, George is also a lock. Every retired player in NBA history with at least six All-NBA appearances is in the Hall of Fame. With just five All-NBA selections, Butler isn’t over that threshold yet, but he’ll also get credit as the best player on two Finals teams.
Next up are Embiid and Gilgeous-Alexander, who are shoo-ins because of their MVPs. Derrick Rose is the only retired former MVP who’s not in the Hall of Fame, and unlike Embiid and SGA, Rose never had another All-NBA season. Such a high, extended peak is a guaranteed path to Springfield.
Finally, Gobert has four Defensive Player of the Year awards, tied for the most ever. If fellow four-time winners Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace are Hall of Famers, then Gobert surely is.
Group 3: Young stars well on their way
Luka Doncic
Jayson Tatum*
Anthony Edwards
Victor Wembanyama
* Tatum might not play in 2025-26, as he recovers from an Achilles tear.
Still in their mid-20s, Doncic and Tatum might already be locks. The former has five first team All-NBA selections, while the latter has four, plus a third team nod.
Yet for now, they’re arguably just short of, say, Gilgeous-Alexander because of one hiccup apiece. For Doncic, it’s the lack of a title; for Tatum, it’s the uncertainty around his right Achilles injury and whether he’ll return at an All-NBA level. Basketball-Reference’s Hall of Fame probability tool pegs Doncic’s and Tatum’s odds, if they retired today, at 45% and 59%, respectively. Those numbers will surely tick up over the coming years – but Doncic and Tatum aren’t quite locks yet.
The next two players in this category are younger and less accomplished but still deserve to be separated from the greater host of early-20s stars listed in a later category. Edwards is fifth in career points through age 23 (behind LeBron, Durant, Carmelo Anthony and Doncic) and has made second team All-NBA in back-to-back seasons. Only a few retired players – Blake Griffin, Kevin Johnson, Marques Johnson and Ralph Beard (who was banned because of a point-shaving scandal) – had two All-NBA appearances by age 23 and aren’t in the Hall today.
And it might seem presumptive to include Wembanyama in this group, as he has played only 117 career games. But health permitting, presumably every NBA player, executive and fan would envision Wembanyama as a future Hall of Famer due to his expansive skill set at such a young age.
Group 4: Veterans on the bubble
DeMar DeRozan
Kyle Lowry
Jrue Holiday
Kevin Love
Al Horford*
Karl-Anthony Towns
* Horford is currently unsigned, but he will likely play in 2025-26.
Although Basketball-Reference gives DeRozan a 48% chance to make the Hall of Fame given his current résumé, he might be closer to a lock than on the bubble. Only four retired players with at least 20,000 career points aren’t enshrined, and they’re barely over 20,000: LaMarcus Aldridge (20,558), Joe Johnson (20,407), Tom Chambers (20,049) and Antawn Jamison (20,042). As recent retirees, Aldridge and Johnson could also be elected soon.
DeRozan, meanwhile, is all the way up at 25,292 points and counting. He doesn’t have much of a playoff résumé, but DeRozan’s durability and counting stats should vault him to Springfield.
Guards Lowry and Holiday have very similar cases, and while their raw stats might not look Hall-worthy, they should get boosts as consummate winners and respected all-around contributors.
Love is sort of the power forward version of Lowry and Holiday, as a five-time All-Star, NBA champion and Olympic gold medalist with more than 15,000 career points. Love had much less longevity than the two guards, though – he hasn’t scored more than 1,007 points in a season since 2017-18 – which could hurt his chances of breaking through.
Like Love, Horford is a five-time All-Star and NBA champion. Unlike Love, Horford’s peak was lower, but he’s still chugging along as a championship-level contributor into his late 30s. The Basketball Hall of Fame’s consideration of all levels of basketball could benefit Horford a great deal, thanks to his back-to-back collegiate titles at Florida. In the one-and-done era, few players will receive a notable NCAA boost to their Hall of Fame cases – Horford might be the exception.
Finally, Towns is half a decade younger than the rest of the players in this group, but he didn’t fit neatly into any other group on this list. He certainly qualifies as a veteran, as he enters his 30s with 10 NBA seasons under his belt. On the plus side, Towns has an impressive statistical record. He’s a 7-footer with a 40% career 3-point stroke, and he’s one of only 22 players in league history with career averages of 20-plus points and 10-plus rebounds per game; the other 21 are all either in the Hall, still active or banned because of a point-shaving scandal (1950s star Alex Groza).
On the downside, Towns’ hardware – which consists of a Rookie of the Year trophy, five All-Star selections and three third team All-NBA nods – isn’t yet at the Hall of Fame standard, and his playoff record is lacking. Taken all together, it seems Towns needs a few more strong seasons to reach lock territory. Boosting the Knicks to the Finals would certainly help.
Group 5: 29-year-olds on the edge
Jalen Brunson
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Domantas Sabonis
Jaylen Brown
This is a fun cohort of players, all of whom will be 29 years old by the end of October, and all with one or two career All-NBA nods and a decent Hall of Fame chance depending on the rest of their primes.
Brunson is the group’s newest riser, a late bloomer with All-Star selections and top-10 MVP finishes in the past two seasons. The Knicks captain has a long way to go – he’s still shy of 10,000 career points – but he’s on the upswing, and like Towns, he could make giant strides this season if he can propel the Knicks to the Finals through a shallow Eastern Conference.
Another player who could also take advantage of the East’s weakness is Mitchell, who would fix the most glaring flaw on his résumé in the process: Despite incredible regular-season success and strong individual numbers in the playoffs, Mitchell has never even reached the conference finals. Still, with six consecutive All-Star appearances and a first team All-NBA nod last season, Mitchell is on strong footing for future Hall induction.
Out West, Booker has just two All-NBA selections and now finds himself in a terrible team situation, but his consistency since he entered the league as a teenager means he’s 10th in career points through age 28, with 16,452. Stephon Marbury (19th place) is the only player in the top 20 who’s not in the Hall or a lock to get there. Booker could end up with a DeRozan-esque Hall of Fame case in a decade, with enough points to swamp any demerits on his player page.
Sabonis could also follow a DeRozan-esque compiler path to join his father Arvydas, who made the Hall largely on the strength of his international career. The younger Sabonis is only a three-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA honoree, but he keeps racking up points, rebounds and assists. With 68 career triple-doubles – 50 of them coming in his three full seasons in Sacramento – Sabonis could reach triple-digit triple-doubles, which only six players in NBA history have achieved. (Doncic will almost certainly beat Sabonis to 100, as might Antetokounmpo.)
Brown, the final member of this group, has one uniquely compelling award on his mantel: Finals MVP, which is almost a guarantee of eventual enshrinement: Cedric Maxwell and Andre Iguodala (who hasn’t had a chance to be on the ballot yet) are the only retired Finals MVPs not in the Hall.
However, most Finals MVPs have much more robust résumés overall than Brown, a one-time All-NBA honoree who has never been the best player on his own team. Like all the other players in this tier, he still has work to do – and he’ll have the opportunity to impress as the Celtics’ go-to scorer this upcoming season with Tatum out due to an Achilles tear.
Group 6: Circle back in a few years
Tyrese Haliburton*
Jalen Williams
Chet Holmgren
Evan Mobley
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Zion Williamson
Ja Morant
Trae Young
LaMelo Ball
Scottie Barnes
Alperen Sengun
Tyrese Maxey
Stephon Castle
Amen Thompson
Cooper Flagg
* Haliburton might not play in 2025-26, as he recovers from an Achilles tear.
In analyzing the young players on possible Hall of Fame paths, we decided to take a “the more, the merrier” approach. It’s easier to imagine players from this group making the leap to Hall worthiness than for better, more established players who are farther into their careers yet still not at that elite level.
In other words: Is a player such as Castle better today, than, say, Pascal Siakam? Definitely not. But Siakam is already 31 years old with a mere 2% chance of making the Hall given his current résumé, per Basketball-Reference, while Castle is just 20. So the reigning Rookie of the Year has a greater chance of reaching a Hall of Fame level at some point over his career.
So we’re including every player who has debuted in the past half-decade and made an All-Star team, plus the youngster who appears most likely to make his first All-Star team soon (Thompson). We won’t cover every player in this group in detail, but let’s analyze some of the most interesting cases.
Flagg hasn’t even debuted yet, but given his potential as a No. 1 pick – let alone a No. 1 pick with such hype – he already has a nearly 50% chance of making the Hall one day. Here is the number of future Hall of Famers selected first overall by decade:
1960s: 4
1970s: 4
1980s: 5
1990s: 4
2000s: 2 (plus LeBron, probably Griffin and maybe Rose)
The 2010s likely won’t reach that historical average, with just two locks (Davis and Irving) and one coin flip case (Towns). Meanwhile, Anthony Bennett, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz are Hall of Fame cross-offs, and Andrew Wiggins and Deandre Ayton have never made an All-NBA team. Neither has Williamson – but at just 25 years old with two All-Star selections and at least the potential to dominate if he can put together a run of sustained health, it’s still worth mentioning Williamson as a potential long-term Hall of Fame candidate.
Several No. 1 picks after him have better cases. We’ve already discussed Edwards and Wembanyama, and All-Stars Cunningham and Banchero are also on the right track early in their careers, with ample room to grow as they approach their primes.
Finally, Williams and Holmgren could be the Thompson and Green to Gilgeous-Alexander’s Stephen Curry, as the Oklahoma City Thunder chase the league’s newest dynasty. Williams made both the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams in his third season, and Holmgren should be an All-Defensive mainstay if he plays enough games to qualify.
With a historical average of 34 active Hall of Famers in any given season, that means an even distribution would place about one Hall of Famer on every team. But of course, the NBA doesn’t have an even distribution, and a team such as the Dallas Mavericks could easily have four Hall of Famers suit up for them next season (Davis, Irving, Thompson and Flagg). What makes the Thunder so remarkable is that they’ll not only have three potential future Hall of Famers at the same time, but also that they’re all young, growing together and helping each other improve to become historical greats.
By Zach Kram | ESPN, via ESPN