By Tim Bontemps | ESPN, 2025-08-29 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
ESPN 在本周发布了新一期的NBA夏季预测，深度剖析了联盟可能发生的一切，从各大奖项的选票归属，到总冠军的最终预测，再到各支球队可能经历的动荡与转机。
我们的专家团队对联盟30支球队的赛季末排名进行了投票，描绘出了东西部联盟可能呈现的格局。然而，主流观点未必就是正确的答案。（举个例子，我们对2024-25赛季的奖项预测就遭遇了6项全部落空的尴尬。）
有鉴于此，我们在此为您盘点五支有望在本赛季超越其预测胜场数的球队，以及另外五支可能在明年春天未能达到预期的队伍。
五支有望超出预期的球队
俄克拉荷马城雷霆
预测战绩：64胜18负
上赛季，俄克拉荷马城成为联盟历史上第22支单赛季至少取得65场胜利的球队。在这些球队中，仅有两支队伍在接下来的赛季中能够持平或超越此前的胜场数：分别是1995-96赛季和1996-97赛季的芝加哥公牛（分别取得72胜和69胜），以及2014-15、2015-16和2016-17赛季的金州勇士（分别取得67胜、73胜和67胜）。
其他单赛季至少取得65胜的球队，在次年的胜场数平均下降了超过七场。历史上仅有一次（2015-16赛季的勇士）有球队能够持平或提升前一赛季的胜场纪录。
为何卫冕冠军能够打破这一定律？原因在于多重因素的结合：由于印第安纳和波士顿的明星球员遭遇伤病，东部联盟的整体实力进一步被削弱（雷霆上赛季对阵东部球队的战绩为29胜1负）；球队阵容完整回归且有望持续进步；以及切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 和以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 将有更多的出场时间——这对内线组合上赛季合计缺席了75场比赛。当这两位大个子中任何一人能够出战时，雷霆取得了59胜10负的惊人战绩——这相当于70胜赛季的胜率。
雷霆会成为第三支单赛季豪取70胜的球队吗？别抱太大希望，但他们很可能轻松拿下联盟最佳战绩，并成为第三支连续两个赛季至少取得65胜的球队。ESPN今年夏天采访的教练、球探和高管们普遍不看衰雷霆卫冕，这并非没有道理。
洛杉矶快船
预测战绩：50胜32负
上赛季，在被普遍预测为一支附加赛边缘球队的情况下，快船出人意料地取得了50场胜利。尽管保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 签约了费城76人队，且科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 仅出战37场，但这更凸显了主教练泰伦·卢 (Tyronn Lue) 全年对阵容的出色调教。
今年夏天，快船用诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell)、阿米尔·科菲 (Amir Coffey)、本·西蒙斯 (Ben Simmons) 和帕蒂·米尔斯 (Patty Mills) 换来了布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal)、克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul)、约翰·科林斯 (John Collins) 和布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez)，使洛杉矶一跃成为联盟阵容深度最强的球队之一，其休赛期的运作也赢得了竞争对手球探和高管的一致好评。
这套阵容的构建理念与雷霆几乎是截然相反：快船轮换阵容中只有三名球员年龄在30岁以下，且没有一人低于27岁。但快船可以依靠他们的教练团队和阵容深度来对抗年龄和伤病风险。这应能让他们继续前进，并超越去年的胜场数。
金州勇士
预测战绩：48胜34负
与快船类似，勇士的预测胜场数与他们上赛季持平，并且同样拥有一套年龄偏大的阵容（尽管我们预测的阵容目前尚不完整，因为金州仍在等待乔纳森·库明加 (Jonathan Kuminga) 的受限制自由球员僵局得到解决）。
选择勇士是基于对斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 与吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 合作关系的看好。在上赛季巴特勒引发的种种风波中，当库里和巴特勒共同出战的27场比赛里，金州取得了22胜5负的战绩。是的，球队存在大量的年龄和伤病风险（包括最终可能加入的艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford)、德安东尼·梅尔顿 (De’Anthony Melton) 和小加里·佩顿 (Gary Payton II)，这几位球员似乎都将在库明加问题解决后加盟金州）。
但只要库里、巴特勒和德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 保持相对健康，这看起来是超越预测胜场数的稳妥选择。
迈阿密热火
预测战绩：39胜43负
说到巴特勒，看到他的前东家出现在这里可能会让人有些意外。在巴特勒交易风波的影响下，迈阿密去年打出了一个37胜45负的平庸赛季，以东部第10号种子的身份进入附加赛，但在首轮即被克利夫兰骑士淘汰。
但迈阿密引进了鲍威尔——这位上赛季在快船场均能得到21.8分的得分手——这应该能帮助热火改善排名联盟第21位的进攻。此外，热火上赛季在关键时刻的比赛中战绩为14胜28负，胜率位列NBA倒数第三。这一点，再加上实力有所削弱的东部，让迈阿密很有希望超越他们的预测胜场数。
多伦多猛龙
预测战绩：33胜49负
多伦多上赛季战绩为30胜52负，期间他们竭尽全力提升自己的选秀顺位，而且自新奥尔良鹈鹕通过赛季中期交易得到布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 后，他没有为这支球队出战过一秒钟。
除非阵容遭遇大规模伤病潮，否则很难想象猛龙会在胜场数上徘徊于这个水平——尤其是在东部。
几年前，当猛龙在时任首席执行官马赛·乌杰里 (Masai Ujiri) 的领导下开始重建阵容时，目标本是快速重返竞争者行列。球队自那以后的一系列运作——包括交易并续约英格拉姆——都印证了这一信念。像多伦多这样进入赛季就需缴纳奢侈税的球队，是不会预期自己连附加赛都进不了的。
五支或将不及预期的球队
明尼苏达森林狼
预测战绩：51胜31负
明尼苏达队史仅有两次胜场数超过51场：分别是在2004年和2024年。上赛季，明尼苏达连续第二年闯入西部决赛，但常规赛仅取得49场胜利，排名西部第六。
今年夏天，这支森林狼队在自由市场上失去了尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)，这要求像小特伦斯·香农 (Terrence Shannon Jr.) 和杰伦·克拉克 (Jaylen Clark) 这样的年轻球员承担起更重的担子，同时球队仍需严重依赖迈克·康利 (Mike Conley) 和鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)。如果这两位年迈的资深球员中任何一人缺阵，森林狼都没有明确的替代方案。纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid) 今年夏天作为自由球员以一份5年1.25亿美元的合同回归，但他的防守不足以弥补戈贝尔缺阵带来的影响；而去年第8顺位的新秀罗伯·迪林厄姆 (Rob Dillingham) 是否有能力最终接班康利，仍是一个巨大的未知数。
凭借安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)、朱利叶斯·兰德尔 (Julius Randle)、一套灵活的阵容以及克里斯·芬奇 (Chris Finch) 的执教，明尼苏达在明年春天仍将是一块难啃的硬骨头。但考虑到西部的强大实力和阵容中存在的诸多疑问，想要在去年的基础上提升胜场数，可能会相当困难。
底特律活塞
预测战绩：47胜35负
上赛季对活塞而言是一个魔幻般的赛季，他们的胜场数从14场飙升至44场，凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 成长为一名最佳阵容级别的球员，球队自2019年以来首次闯入季后赛，并赢得了自2008年以来的首场季后赛胜利。
这样的赛季之后通常会迎来一个巩固期，而底特律在夏天的运作方式，表明管理层已为此做好了准备。邓肯·罗宾逊 (Duncan Robinson) 取代了小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.)，卡里斯·勒韦尔 (Caris LeVert) 取代了马利克·比斯利 (Malik Beasley)，而如今恢复健康的杰登·艾维 (Jaden Ivey) 应该会填补丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schroder) 自由身加盟萨克拉门托国王后留下的轮换空缺。但是，这支球队将依赖像艾维、小罗恩·霍兰 (Ron Holland II)、杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 和奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 这样的年轻球员，在坎宁安身边继续扩展他们的角色。
底特律应该能轻松地向上赛季前六的季后赛席位发起冲击。考虑到东部的整体状况，活塞或许无需达到预测中增加三场胜利的目标就能实现这一成就。
达拉斯独行侠
预测战绩：44胜38负
达拉斯将是新赛季NBA最引人关注的球队之一，他们要引导库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 适应NBA生活，要尝试各种超大阵容，还要应对卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 交易的持续影响，以及凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 在三月份遭遇前十字韧带撕裂后可能迎来的复出。就目前情况来看，阵容中唯一可靠的持球手是丹吉洛·拉塞尔 (D’Angelo Russell)，他是一名不错的轮换控卫，但更适合担任替补角色。
再加上安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 的健康问题——他在达拉斯首秀后因腹股沟伤势缺席了六周，随后在七月又接受了视网膜脱离修复手术——使得在残酷的西部想要超越44胜的战绩，成为一项更为艰巨的任务。
圣安东尼奥马刺
预测战绩：44胜38负
维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在他的第二个赛季就已经确立了自己作为联盟中统治级的防守力量。
但尽管文班亚马无比出色，这支马刺的阵容感觉仍在构建之中，而非一个成品。问题始于达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)、迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 和斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 这三名后卫。
马刺必须弄清楚如何让这三位天赋异禀但投射能力不稳定的球员在场上共存，并学会与文班亚马配合。这也是联盟圈内人士对任何球队都抱有的最大疑问之一，因为它将决定马刺未来如何塑造阵容。
对于首次担任主教练的米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson) 来说，需要解决的问题实在太多了。当然，文班亚马仅凭一己之力就可能带领球队超越这个胜场数，但圣安东尼奥存在足够多的不确定性，因此选择他们无法达到预测胜场数似乎是更稳妥的决定。
波特兰开拓者
预测战绩：39胜43负
波特兰上赛季最终取得了36场胜利，这得益于他们在赛季末段的强势冲刺，期间他们从那些为季后赛轮休或为争取更高选秀顺位而调整策略的球队身上拿下了不少胜利。
今年夏天，波特兰确实用安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons) 换来了朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)，但额外的胜场将从何而来尚不明确。开拓者正试图将霍勒迪和杰拉米·格兰特 (Jerami Grant) 这样的老将与斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson)、谢登·夏普 (Shaedon Sharpe) 和多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 组成的年轻核心融合在一起。开拓者还寄望于他们在赛季后半段展现出的防守——从1月15日起，开拓者的防守效率在NBA并列第四——比他们在2024-25赛季前半段排名第25的防守更为真实。
波特兰确实拥有像德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)、图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara) 和克林根这样一些有趣的球员来构建防守体系，用一名真正的防守大闸霍勒迪来取代西蒙斯也不会有坏处。但在一个竞争惨烈的分区，我们认为波特兰无法在上赛季的基础上取得进步。
点击查看原文：NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Who could exceed, fall short of predictions?
NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Who could exceed, fall short of predictions?
ESPN released its NBA Summer Forecast this week, breaking down everything that could happen across the league, from awards ballots, to championship predictions, to turmoil and turnarounds across the league.
Our staff voted on where all 30 NBA teams could land in the end-of-season standings, a snapshot of how the Eastern and Western Conferences might shake out. However, a consensus view isn’t necessarily the correct one. (Case in point, our awards forecast for 2024-25 went 0-for-6.)
With that in mind, here’s a look at five teams that could exceed their forecast win totals for this season, as well as five that could fall short of the mark next spring.
Five to exceed expectations
Oklahoma City Thunder
Forecast: 64-18
Last season, Oklahoma City became just the 22nd team in league history to win at least 65 games. Of those, only two franchises have gone on to match or surpass that total the following season: the 1995-96 and 1996-97 Chicago Bulls (72 and 69 wins, respectively) and the 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (67, 73 and 67 wins, respectively).
The other teams to win at least 65 games in a season saw their win total drop by an average of more than seven games the following year. Only once (the Warriors in 2015-16) did a team either meet or improve on its win total from the season before.
Why could the defending champs buck this trend? It’s the combination of an even weaker Eastern Conference following star injuries in Indiana and Boston (the Thunder went 29-1 against the conference last season), a fully returning roster that should continue improving, and more time on the court for Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein after the duo missed a combined 75 games last season. When either big man was available, OKC had a staggering 59-10 record – a 70-win pace.
Will OKC become the third team to win 70 games? Don’t bet on it, but the Thunder could easily have the league’s best record and become the third team to win at least 65 in back-to-back seasons. There’s a reason that coaches, scouts and executives ESPN has spoken to this summer aren’t betting against a Thunder repeat.
LA Clippers
Forecast: 50-32
The Clippers surprised last season with 50 wins after being projected as a borderline play-in team. Paul George had signed with the Philadelphia 76ers and Kawhi Leonard played just 37 games, underscoring the job coach Tyronn Lue did with the roster throughout the year.
This summer, the Clippers turned Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Ben Simmons and Patty Mills into Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins and Brook Lopez, making LA one of the NBA’s deepest teams and earning praise from rival scouts and executives for their offseason maneuvers.
This roster is almost the polar opposite of what OKC has put together: Only three Clippers rotation players are under 30, and none is under 27, but the Clippers can combat the age and injury risks by leaning into their coaching and depth. That should allow them to push on and exceed last year’s win total.
Golden State Warriors
Forecast: 48-34
Like the Clippers, the Warriors are projected right at their win total from last season and have an older roster (although we are projecting out a roster that is currently incomplete, as Golden State waits for a resolution to the Jonathan Kuminga restricted free agency showdown).
This pick is a bet on the evolution of the Stephen Curry-Jimmy Butler III partnership. Amid all the Butler drama from last season, Golden State went 22-5 in the 27 games Curry and Butler played together. Yes, there’s plenty of age and injury risk (including the eventual additions of Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II, all of whom seem set to join Golden State once the Kuminga situation is sorted out).
But as long as Curry, Butler and Draymond Green are relatively healthy, this feels like a good bet to go over.
Miami Heat
Forecast: 39-43
Speaking of Butler, it might be a surprise to see his former team sitting here. Amid Butler trade drama, Miami had an uninspiring 37-45 season last year, making a play-in tournament appearance as a 10th seed before being eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round.
But Miami added Powell – a 21.8 point-per-game scorer last season with the Clippers – which should help the Heat’s 21st-ranked offense. The Heat were also 14-28 in clutch games last season, the third-worst winning percentage in the NBA. That, plus a weakened East, leaves Miami as a strong bet to exceed their forecast.
Toronto Raptors
Forecast: 33-49
Toronto went 30-52 last season while doing everything it could to improve its draft positioning, and with Brandon Ingram not playing a second with this group after a midseason trade from the New Orleans Pelicans.
It’s difficult to see a scenario where the Raptors are in this sort of zone from a wins standpoint – especially in the East – barring a massive rash of injuries to the roster.
When the Raptors began tearing down this roster a couple of years ago under then-lead executive Masai Ujiri, it was meant to be a quick flip back toward contention. The moves the team has made since – including trading for, and extending, Ingram – all play into that belief. Teams don’t enter the season in the luxury tax, like Toronto is, and expect to miss the play-in.
Five to fall short
Minnesota Timberwolves
Forecast: 51-31
Minnesota has surpassed 51 wins just twice in franchise history: in 2004 and 2024. Last season, Minnesota reached its second straight West finals but won 49 games and finished sixth in the standings.
This is a Timberwolves team that lost Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency this summer, requiring youngsters such as Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark to pick up a much bigger load while still leaning heavily on Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. If either aging veteran misses any time, the Timberwolves don’t have a clear answer to replace them. Naz Reid, who got a five-year, $125 million deal to come back as a free agent this summer, isn’t strong enough defensively to make up for Gobert’s absence, and last year’s No. 8 pick, Rob Dillingham, remains a huge question mark in his ability to eventually take over for Conley.
Minnesota, behind Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, a flexible roster and Chris Finch’s coaching, will still be a difficult out next spring. But until then, given the strength of the West and the questions on the roster, improving from last year’s win total could prove difficult.
Detroit Pistons
Forecast: 47-35
It was a magical season last year for the Pistons, who went from 14 to 44 wins, saw Cade Cunningham become an All-NBA player, made the playoffs for the first time since 2019 and won a playoff game for the first time since 2008.
Such seasons tend to be followed by a consolidation year, and Detroit approached the summer like an organization prepared for that possibility. Duncan Robinson replaced Tim Hardaway Jr., Caris LeVert replaced Malik Beasley and the now healthy Jaden Ivey should take Dennis Schroder’s rotation spot after he departed for the Sacramento Kings in free agency. But, this is a group that will lean into young players like Ivey, Ron Holland II, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson to continue expanding their roles around Cunningham.
Detroit should easily challenge for a top-6 playoff spot. And given the state of the East, the Pistons might not need the forecast three-win jump to get there.
Dallas Mavericks
Forecast: 44-38
Dallas is going to be one of the NBA’s most interesting teams this season, between introducing Cooper Flagg to life in the NBA, playing some truly massive lineups across the board, the ongoing fallout of the Luka Doncic trade and Kyrie Irving’s potential return from a torn ACL suffered in March. As it stands now, the only reliable ball handler on the roster is D’Angelo Russell, a fine rotation player at the point but one who is more suited for a backup role.
That, along with Anthony Davis’ health issues – he missed six weeks with a groin injury after his Dallas debut, then had surgery to repair a detached retina in July – makes exceeding a 44-win season a taller task in the brutal West.
San Antonio Spurs
Forecast: 44-38
Victor Wembanyama has already established himself as the league’s dominant defensive force in his second season.
But for as great as Wembanyama is, this Spurs roster still feels like it’s being formed rather than a finished product. That begins with the guard trio of De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle.
The Spurs have to figure out how to make all three (all of whom are very talented but are iffy shooters) fit together on the court and learn to play with Wembanyama. It’s one of the biggest questions people around the league have about any team, as well, given what it could mean for how the Spurs will shape the roster moving forward.
That’s a lot to sort out for first-time head coach Mitch Johnson. Wembanyama could of course surpass this number based on his own brilliance alone, but there are enough question marks in San Antonio that sticking with the under feels like the safe choice.
Portland Trail Blazers
Forecast: 39-43
Portland finished with 36 wins last season after a strong push down the stretch that saw the Blazers rack up wins against teams resting for the playoffs or positioning themselves to maximize draft position.
Portland did turn Anfernee Simons into Jrue Holiday this summer, but it’s unclear where the additional wins will come from. The Blazers are attempting to mesh veterans such as Holiday and Jerami Grant with a young core of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Donovan Clingan. The Blazers are also banking that the defense that showed up throughout the second half of the season – the Blazers tied for the fourth best in the NBA from Jan. 15 on – is more real than the 25th-ranked defense from the first half of 2024-25.
Portland does have some interesting players in Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Clingan to build that defense around, and replacing Simons with a true stopper in Holiday won’t hurt, either. But in an unforgiving conference, the bet here is that Portland can’t improve on last season.
By Tim Bontemps | ESPN, via ESPN