[ESPN] 2025-26赛季NBA夏季预测：NBA各大主要奖项前瞻

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By NBA insiders | ESPN, 2025-08-26 20:00:00

由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。

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本赛季，哪些球员将把NBA各大奖项的荣誉带回家？

上赛季，谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 成为自2015年的勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 以来，首位在同一赛季包揽总决赛MVP和常规赛MVP的球员。本赛季，奖项榜单的头名之争将再度异常激烈，这不仅限于MVP的角逐，其他主要奖项同样如此。

备受瞩目的状元秀库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 有望将年度最佳新秀奖收入囊中。但在人才济济的新秀届中，他必然会面临一些挑战者，其中包括圣安东尼奥马刺队的迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，后者有机会为马刺连续第三个赛季赢得该奖项。

此外，请密切关注年度最佳防守球员的争夺。上赛季该奖项的领跑者维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 在因未能达到65场出场次数的评选门槛后，本赛季将重返赛场。

我们邀请了夏季预测专家团——一个由记者、编辑和分析师组成的NBA专家组——为NBA六大主要奖项评选出他们心目中的前三名人选。第一名选票计5分，第二名选票计3分，第三名选票计1分。

以下是评选结果：

注：我们的2025-26赛季NBA夏季预测将在周三继续，届时将发布东西部联盟的战绩预测。周一，我们公布了本赛季进步最大和退步最快的球队预测，并解答了本赛季一些最受关注的问题。

谁将赢得NBA MVP？

  1. 尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)，丹佛掘金： 83分

  2. 卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)，洛杉矶湖人： 62分

  3. 谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆： 46分

并列第4. 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)，密尔沃基雄鹿 / 安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)，明尼苏达森林狼： 9分

  1. 凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，休斯顿火箭： 8分

要么是评委们的审美疲劳消退得很快，要么是尼古拉·约基奇在2025年季后赛第二轮与吉尔杰斯-亚历山大的正面对决给他们留下了极其深刻的印象。在我们的季前调查中，这位三届MVP成为第四次获奖的绝对热门，其得票数几乎是SGA卫冕的两倍。评委们似乎也对卢卡·东契奇休赛期的转变印象深刻，这位身材变得苗条的洛杉矶湖人队控球后卫在早期投票中位居第二。球队战绩始终是投票的重要因素，这或许是SGA在此次预测中滑落至第三的原因。换言之，他已经将雷霆提升至总冠军级别并因此被认可为MVP。但万一他和这支几十年来最年轻的总冠军队伍，还有更高的境界可以企及呢？ – 拉蒙娜·谢尔本 (Ramona Shelburne)

谁将赢得NBA年度最佳新秀？

  1. 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，达拉斯独行侠： 121分

  2. 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，圣安东尼奥马刺： 38分

  3. VJ·埃吉科姆 (VJ Edgecombe)，费城76人： 25分

  4. 康·克努普尔 (Kon Knueppel)，夏洛特黄蜂： 18分

  5. 艾斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey)，犹他爵士： 16分

毫无疑问，弗拉格在投票中一骑绝尘：他是这届新秀中最出色的球员，带来了即插即用的全能身手，并且即将在一支拥有季后赛希望和资深球员的队伍中扮演重要角色。这个奖项往往是天赋与机遇结合的产物，而弗拉格进入联盟时，两者都达到了最佳的组合状态。

哈珀和埃吉科姆分列二、三位，这两名球员都能在新秀赛季产生巨大影响。但他们各自面临的问题是，能在球队拥挤的后场中争取到多大的角色，以及这是否足以让他们获得一个足够大的平台来竞争年度最佳新秀的荣誉。从纸面上看，弗拉格暂时占有巨大优势。 – 杰里米·吴 (Jeremy Woo)

谁将赢得年度最佳防守球员？

  1. 维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)，圣安东尼奥马刺： 95分

  2. 埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley)，克利夫兰骑士： 31分

  3. 切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆： 20分

  4. 扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)，密尔沃基雄鹿： 16分

  5. 鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)，明尼苏达森林狼： 14分

右肩深静脉血栓基本上夺走了马刺天才维克托·文班亚马赢得其首个NBA年度最佳防守球员奖项的机会，这位21岁的球员因在2月20日赛季报销而未能满足65场出场次数的评选资格。尽管上赛季仅出战46场比赛，文班亚马的盖帽数（176次）仍遥遥领先于第二名的布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez)（148次）。此外，他场均贡献1.1次抢断，当他在场时，马刺的防守效率为115.4（当他不在场时为121.4）。

如果文班亚马本赛季能出战联盟规定的65场比赛，那么他若未能以压倒性优势击败卫冕DPOY埃文·莫布里以及切特·霍姆格伦、扬尼斯·阿德托昆博和鲁迪·戈贝尔等其他竞争者，那才叫意外。

曾一次获得DPOY的阿德托昆博，上赛季在该奖项投票中名列第八，领先于四届得主鲁迪·戈贝尔（第13名）。值得关注的是，雄鹿在休赛期引进迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 后，可能会如何解放阿德托昆博，让他在对手的进攻端掀起腥风血雨。 – 迈克尔·C·莱特 (Michael C. Wright)

谁将赢得年度最佳第六人？

  1. 亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso)，俄克拉荷马城雷霆： 66分

  2. 纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid)，明尼苏达森林狼： 52分

  3. 尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)，亚特兰大老鹰： 39分

  4. 佩顿·普理查德 (Payton Pritchard)，波士顿凯尔特人： 18分

  5. 泰·杰罗姆 (Ty Jerome)，孟菲斯灰熊： 17分

评委们会更看重细微作用而非数据吗？若要亚历克斯·卡鲁索在即将到来的赛季赢得此奖，情况必须如此。

这项荣誉传统上授予那些能从替补席上提供即时火力的球员。自年度最佳第六人奖项设立以来，获奖者场均得分不到两位数的情况只发生过三次，而上一次已经是三十年前的事了。卡鲁索在俄克拉荷马城首个赛季的影响力无可争议，尤其是在季后赛期间。但他在常规赛场均仅得到7.1分，当时他在最佳第六人投票中仅获得一张第三名选票，最终排名第八。作为一名在一支阵容强大的雷霆队中扮演角色球员的卡鲁索，在他第九个NBA赛季里得分大幅提升的可能性不大。

雷霆将继续谨慎管理卡鲁索的上场时间（上赛季54场比赛场均19.3分钟），优先确保这位31岁球员的体能，以备战又一次可能的季后赛深度之旅，并为像阿杰·米切尔 (Ajay Mitchell) 和尼古拉·托皮奇 (Nikola Topic) 这样的年轻后卫提供成长机会。但凭借卓越防守和为强队做贡献而赢得此奖项亦有先例，可以追溯到1982-83赛季首位年度最佳第六人——费城的鲍比·琼斯 (Bobby Jones)。

65场比赛的最低出场要求不适用于年度最佳第六人奖，但在ESPN投票中排名靠前的几位球员可能没有资格参评此奖。上赛季的获奖者佩顿·普理查德和尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克本赛季都很有可能成为首发球员。 – 蒂姆·麦克马洪 (Tim MacMahon)

谁将赢得最快进步球员？

  1. 阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)，休斯顿火箭： 59分

  2. 安德鲁·内姆哈德 (Andrew Nembhard)，印第安纳步行者： 40分

  3. 奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson)，底特律活塞： 18分

  4. 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)，波特兰开拓者： 14分

  5. 杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson)，亚特兰大老鹰： 14分

阿门·汤普森在这一奖项的预测中遥遥领先，他预计将在2025-26赛季这支被寄予厚望的火箭队中扮演重要角色。汤普森即将迎来他的NBA第三个赛季，在二年级时他已经实现了一次飞跃，而他甚至还未成为全职首发。他已将自己塑造成一名精英级别的防守球员，入选了最佳防守阵容，并且是目前联盟中最好的持球防守者之一。他的进攻在季后赛中显露出进步的迹象，控球和跳投都有所改善，随着系列赛的进行，他的场均得分也在提升，让联盟瞥见了他能在球场另一端所做的一切。考虑到汤普森本赛季将与凯文·杜兰特并肩作战——一个远胜上赛季的休斯顿进攻核心，他的表现理应得到进一步提升。 – 贾马尔·科利尔 (Jamal Collier)

谁将赢得年度最佳教练？

  1. 贾马尔·莫斯利 (Jamahl Mosley)，奥兰多魔术： 48分

  2. 奎因·斯奈德 (Quin Snyder)，亚特兰大老鹰： 24分

  3. 伊梅·乌度卡 (Ime Udoka)，休斯顿火箭： 22分

  4. 迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown)，纽约尼克斯： 21分

  5. 米奇·约翰逊 (Mitch Johnson)，圣安东尼奥马刺： 16分

贾马尔·莫斯利在2021年被聘用时，任务是培养魔术队，他带领一支年轻的核心阵容连续两次闯入季后赛。但现在，莫斯利拥有了一套旨在冲击饱受伤病困扰的东部之巅的阵容，我们的专家团预测莫斯利将带领球队实现重大飞跃，并摘得年度最佳教练的荣誉。随着德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 急需的得分和外线投射能力，以及泰厄斯·琼斯 (Tyus Jones) 稳健的控卫组织能力的加入，以辅佐保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 和弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner)，奥兰多有望自2010-11赛季以来首次取得超过50场胜利。健康将是至关重要的，尤其是杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 从左膝手术中恢复的能力。同在东南分区的对手亚特兰大，是另一支在休赛期有重大动作的球队，在主教练奎因·斯奈德的带领下，预计本赛季也将在东部展开竞争。 – 奥姆·扬米苏克 (Ohm Youngmisuk)

点击查看原文：NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Predictions for every major NBA award

NBA Summer Forecast 2025-26: Predictions for every major NBA award

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Which players will take home some hardware for the NBA’s major awards this season?

Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander became the first player since LeBron James in 2015 to win Finals MVP and league MVP in the same season. This season, it’ll be another tight race to the top of the awards list, not only for MVP but for other major awards as well.

Highly-touted No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg is primed to take home Rookie of the Year. But in a talented rookie class, he’s sure to face some challengers, including San Antonio Spurs’ Dylan Harper, who can take home the award for the franchise for the third season in a row.

Plus, keep your eye on the race for Defensive Player of the Year, as last season’s front-runner, Victor Wembanyama, returns to the court after missing the 65-game threshold for eligibility.

We asked our Summer Forecast panel – a group of NBA experts, including reporters, editors and analysts – to rank its top three choices for the NBA’s six major awards, with a first-place vote receiving five points, a second-place vote receiving three and a third-place vote receiving one.

Here are the results:

Note: Our 2025-26 NBA Summer Forecast continues Wednesday with win-loss predictions for the Eastern and Western conferences. On Monday, we revealed our picks for the teams that will have the biggest turnaround this season and the teams that will drop off and answered some of the season’s biggest questions.

Who will win NBA MVP?

1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 83 points

2. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 62 points

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 46 points

T4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks/Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: 9 points

5. Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets: 8 points

Either voter fatigue wears off quickly, or voters were very impressed by Nikola Jokic’s head-to-head battle with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the second round of the 2025 playoffs. The three-time MVP came in as a heavy favorite to win for a fourth time in our preseason survey, almost doubling the votes for SGA to repeat. Voters also seemed to be impressed by Luka Doncic’s offseason transformation as the svelte version of the Los Angeles Lakers point guard came in second in early voting. Team success always plays a factor in voting, which is probably why SGA has slipped to third here. In other words, he already elevated the Thunder to a championship level and was recognized as the MVP for doing it. But what if there’s even another level for him – and the youngest championship team in decades – to reach? – Ramona Shelburne

Who will win NBA Rookie of the Year?

1. Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks: 121 points

2. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs: 38 points

3. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers: 25 points

4. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets: 18 points

5. Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz: 16 points

Unsurprisingly, Flagg ran away with the voting: He’s the best prospect in this class, brings NBA-ready versatility and is stepping into what will likely be an important role on a team with playoff hopes and veteran talent. This award tends to be about the confluence of talent and circumstance, and Flagg enters the league with an optimal combination of both.

Harper and Edgecombe finished second and third, and both players can be highly impactful as rookies. The question in both instances will be how big a role they can carve out in their respective crowded backcourts, and whether that leads to a big enough platform to mount a case for Rookie of the Year honors. On paper, Flagg has a major leg up – for now. – Jeremy Woo

Who will win Defensive Player of the Year?

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 95 points

2. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers: 31 points

3. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder: 20 points

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 16 points

5. Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves: 14 points

Deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder essentially robbed Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama of winning his first NBA Defensive Player of the Year award last season because the 21-year-old failed to meet the 65-game threshold for eligibility when he was shut down on Feb. 20. Despite playing in just 46 games last season, Wembanyama led the league in blocks (176) by a wide margin over second-place finisher Brook Lopez (148 blocks). Plus, he averaged 1.1 steals for a Spurs defense that owned a defensive rating of 115.4 with him on the floor (121.4 without).

If Wembanyama plays in league-required 65 games this season, it would be a surprise if he didn’t snatch the award by a landslide ahead of reigning DPOY Evan Mobley and other contenders such as Chet Holmgren, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert.

A one-time DPOY winner, Antetokounmpo finished eighth in award voting last season ahead of four-time winner Rudy Gobert, who finished 13th. Keep an eye on how Milwaukee’s offseason addition of Myles Turner might free up Antetokounmpo to unleash havoc on opposing offenses.– Michael C. Wright

Who will win Sixth Man of the Year?

1. Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: 66 points

2. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves: 52 points

3. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Atlanta Hawks: 39 points

4. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics: 18 points

5. Ty Jerome, Memphis Grizzlies: 17 points

Will voters value nuance over numbers? That would have to be the case for Alex Caruso to win this award this upcoming season.

This honor traditionally goes to a player who provides instant offense off the bench. It has been three decades since the Sixth Man of the Year averaged single digits in points, which has happened only three times in the history of the award. Caruso’s impact in his first season in Oklahoma City, particularly during the playoffs, is indisputable. But he averaged only 7.1 points per game during the regular season, when he received a single third-place vote to finish eighth in Sixth Man of the Year balloting. A significant scoring boost is unlikely for Caruso during his ninth NBA season as a role player on a loaded Thunder roster.

The Thunder will continue to carefully manage Caruso’s minutes (an average of 19.3 in 54 games last season), prioritizing the 31-year-old’s freshness for another probable deep playoff run and providing developmental opportunities for young guards such as Ajay Mitchell and Nikola Topic. But there is precedent for dominant defense and contributing to a contender earning this award, going back to the first Sixth Man of the Year, Philadelphia’s Bobby Jones in 1982-83.

The 65-game minimum doesn’t apply to Sixth Man of the Year, but a couple of players who finished high in ESPN’s balloting might not be eligible for this award. Last season’s winner, Payton Pritchard, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are strong candidates to be starters this season. – Tim MacMahon

Who will win Most Improved Player?

1. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets: 59 points

2. Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers: 40 points

3. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons: 18 points

4. Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers: 14 points

5. Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: 14 points

Amen Thompson was a runaway winner in this category, as he is slated to play a significant role for a Rockets team with high expectations in 2025-26. Thompson will be entering his third season in the NBA, having already taken a jump in Year 2, and he hasn’t even been a full-time starter yet. He has already established himself as an elite defensive player, making the All-Defensive team and is currently one of the best on-ball defenders in the league. His offensive game showed signs of improvement in the playoffs, with better handles and a jumper as he upped his scoring averages as the series went on, giving the league a glimpse of what he can do on the other side of the ball. That should be elevated, considering Thompson will be playing next to Kevin Durant this season, a much better offensive centerpiece for Houston than it had last season. – Jamal Collier

Who will win Coach of the Year?

1. Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic: 48 points

2. Quin Snyder, Atlanta Hawks: 24 points

3. Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets: 22 points

4. Mike Brown, New York Knicks: 21 points

5. Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs: 16 points

Jamahl Mosley was tasked with developing the Magic when he was hired in 2021, and he got a young core to two straight playoff appearances. But now, Mosley has a roster built to make a run at winning the injury-weakened East, and our panel is betting Mosley will captain a significant leap forward and take home Coach of the Year honors. Orlando is poised to win more than 50 games for the first time since 2010-11 with the additions of Desmond Bane’s much-needed scoring and outside shooting, and Tyus Jones’ steady point guard play to complement Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Health will be vital, especially Jalen Suggs’ ability to return from left knee surgery. Southeast division rival Atlanta, another team that made significant offseason moves, is expected to contend in the East this season, with coach Quin Snyder at its helm. – Ohm Youngmisuk

By NBA insiders | ESPN, via ESPN