By Zach Kram | ESPN, 2025-08-18 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
尽管NBA仍处于休赛期，但2025-26赛季的战鼓已开始悄然擂响。
新的全美电视转播日程正逐渐成形。新赛季的赛程已于上周公布。各队训练营也将在一个多月后开启。
因此，在海量的赛季前瞻内容到来之前，让我们先来盘点一下联盟30支球队的现状。本文将为每支球队找出一个决定性数据，阐释其在2025-26赛季临近时的处境，并探讨未来10个月里可能决定他们成败的关键因素。
跳转至球队：
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS
亚特兰大老鹰：10和5
本赛季，老鹰队有充足的理由保持乐观，从戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 打出“最快进步球员”级的爆发表现，到他们拥有东部所有球队中最好的休赛期运作。但是，在2021年意外闯入东部决赛的半个十年后，老鹰队能否再次冲击分区决赛，可能取决于杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 本赛季能达到怎样的高度。这位伤病缠身的前锋上赛季仅出战36场，但只要他能上场，就几乎无人能比他更好地填满数据栏。
约翰逊上赛季场均贡献10个篮板和5次助攻，与尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)、扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 和多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis) 一道，成为仅有的几位达到这两项整数数据的球员。在过去四个赛季中，唯一另一位达成此成就的球员是乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid)。这并非是说约翰逊已是MVP竞争者——但他可能比任何人想象的都更接近最佳阵容和真正的球星行列。
波士顿凯尔特人：99.5%
本赛季，凯尔特人队最大的损失显然是六届全明星球员杰森·塔特姆 (Jayson Tatum) 因跟腱撕裂而休战。但同样不应低估的是波士顿内线轮换的剧变：根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，上赛季季后赛中，凯尔特人队在非垃圾时间的出场中锋里，有99.5%的时间都由艾尔·霍福德 (Al Horford)、克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 和卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 分担。而现在，这三人都已离队。
他们的位置将由内米亚斯·克塔 (Neemias Queta)、卢卡·加尔扎 (Luka Garza)、克里斯·布歇 (Chris Boucher) 和泽维尔·蒂尔曼 (Xavier Tillman) 等人组成的阵容来填补。尽管他们各自带来了不同的优势和打法，但实力均不及霍福德、波尔津吉斯和科内特。这对波士顿和主教练乔·马祖拉 (Joe Mazzulla) 来说是一次重大调整，也让我们更有理由怀疑凯尔特人队在塔特姆缺阵的这个过渡年中能否保持竞争力。
布鲁克林篮网：3
根据GeniusIQ的追踪数据，上赛季篮网队中有六名球员场均持球时间至少达到三分钟。其中五人——丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schroder)、丹吉洛·拉塞尔 (D’Angelo Russell)、本·西蒙斯 (Ben Simmons)、基利安·海斯 (Killian Hayes) 和特伦登·沃特福德 (Trendon Watford)——如今已不在队中；同样离队的还有队内得分第二的卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cameron Johnson)。
篮网新援小迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 应该能分担一部分约翰逊的投篮得分职责，但他并非进攻发起者，这意味着篮网年轻的后场将获得更多支配球的机会。在篮网创纪录地选中五名首轮秀之后，预计球队将经历大量新秀的成长阵痛。此外，可以预见（假设他作为受限制自由球员与篮网续约）卡梅隆·托马斯 (Cam Thomas) 将会打出惊人的使用率，他上赛季的使用率已高达32.6%——在联盟排行榜上仅次于保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero) 和凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham)。
夏洛特黄蜂：35.9%
上赛季，拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 以35.9%的使用率领跑全联盟，这一数据在历史单赛季排行榜上高居第23位。通常情况下，承担如此重任的球员都是打出华丽数据的超级巨星；排在拉梅洛前面的22名球员中，有19位在当赛季入选了NBA最佳阵容。（例外的是被从国王交易至鹈鹕赛季的德马库斯·考辛斯 (DeMarcus Cousins)、因奥本山宫殿斗殴事件被禁赛赛季的杰梅因·奥尼尔 (Jermaine O’Neal)，以及在奇才首个赛季的迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan)。）
但即便鲍尔出场次数足够获得最佳阵容的评选资格，他也远达不到标准。他的球员效率值（PER）是NBA历史上所有使用率达到35%的球员中最差的。再考虑到他频繁的伤病缺席，目前尚不清楚鲍尔究竟仍是黄蜂应该围绕建队的当家球星，还只是一位球风华丽却无法带队取胜的持球手。
芝加哥公牛：164
多年来，公牛队一直是NBA平庸的代名词，他们的战绩就是最好的证明。自引进德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan)、朗佐·鲍尔 (Lonzo Ball) 和亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 开启球队新时代以来的四个赛季里，公牛队的战绩是164胜164负。尽管德罗赞、鲍尔、卡鲁索和扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine) 都已离队，但他们依然没有展现出开启真正重建的迹象——他们在交易鲍尔和卡鲁索时寻求的是球员而非选秀权——这意味着他们在2025-26赛季很可能再次回到五成胜率上下的水平。
克利夫兰骑士：42%
在拥有多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 的三个赛季里，骑士队在常规赛取得了163胜83负的战绩（胜率66%），同期位列NBA第三。但在季后赛中，他们的战绩仅为11胜15负（42%）。
伤病确实是部分原因，米切尔、达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland)、埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 和贾勒特·阿伦 (Jarrett Allen) 在此期间都至少缺席过一场季后赛。但克利夫兰在任何一次季后赛失利中都未能构成真正的威胁，过去三个赛季均以1-4的大比分被淘汰。
继上赛季取得64胜18负的佳绩后，预计克利夫兰在2025-26赛季将赢得更多常规赛胜利。但骑士队如今已走到了本世纪20年代初密尔沃基雄鹿队曾面临的十字路口：无论他们在常规赛表现多么出色，都必须等到季后赛才能证明今年的他们已今非昔比。
达拉斯独行侠：5
独行侠队要想在33岁的凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 和32岁的安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 步入三十五岁之前抓住争冠窗口期，首要任务是等待欧文本赛季从左膝前交叉韧带手术中恢复。而仅次于此的，就是需要状元秀库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)——这位揭幕战当晚才18岁的年轻人——能立即成为一名产生巨大影响的贡献者。
弗拉格是近几十年来最顶尖的NBA新秀之一，所以他当然具备这种潜力。但无论天赋多高，要求任何一位如此年轻、经验尚浅的球员为赢球做出贡献都是一项艰巨的任务。根据Stathead的数据，历史上只有五位青少年球员曾在季后赛球队中担任常规首发外线球员：杰森·塔特姆、罗尔·邓 (Luol Deng)、卡梅隆·安东尼 (Carmelo Anthony)、托尼·帕克 (Tony Parker) 和斯蒂芬·马布里 (Stephon Marbury)。而在过去二十年中，只有塔特姆做到过。
丹佛掘金：7
Basketball Reference网站上有一项名为“MVP选票份额”的有趣数据，它衡量的是球员获得的选票占总票数的百分比，然后将每个赛季的数值累加。换言之，这项数据不仅奖励赢得MVP的球员，更奖励那些以压倒性优势获胜以及年复一年在投票中名列前茅的球员。
凭借过去五个赛季中三次令人信服的MVP胜利和两次第二名的成绩，尼古拉·约基奇正在这份榜单上飞速攀升。在2024-25赛季获得第二名后，他的生涯MVP选票份额排名升至第七位，超越了威尔特·张伯伦 (Wilt Chamberlain)、沙奎尔·奥尼尔 (Shaquille O’Neal)、卡尔·马龙 (Karl Malone)、蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan)、科比·布莱恩特 (Kobe Bryant) 和扬尼斯·阿德托昆博。如果在2025-26赛季有类似表现，他将超越比尔·拉塞尔 (Bill Russell) 和“魔术师”约翰逊 (Magic Johnson)。再有两个顶级赛季，他甚至可能超越拉里·伯德 (Larry Bird)，甚至卡里姆·阿卜杜尔-贾巴尔 (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar)，跃居历史第三，仅次于勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James) 和迈克尔·乔丹。
对于掘金队来说，在经历了一个强劲的夏天后，本赛季他们力争再夺一冠，这关系重大。但对于约基奇个人而言，同样关系重大，因为他正继续巩固其NBA历史最佳球员之一的地位。
底特律活塞：2
尽管活塞队上赛季实现了飞跃，从联盟垫底的14胜提升至44胜，并经历了一场鏖战惜败的季后赛，但凯德·坎宁安、杰登·艾维 (Jaden Ivey)、奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 和杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 四人共同出场的时间仅有两场比赛中的五分钟。由于各种伤病和轮换决策，底特律这四位年龄均在23岁或以下的最重要建队基石，几乎整个赛季都没有同场竞技过。再加上5号秀罗恩·霍兰德 (Ron Holland)，这五位近年来的乐透秀从未一起打过球。
因此，即便底特律在2025-26赛季对老将轮换部分进行了一些调整——送走马利克·比斯利 (Malik Beasley)、小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.) 和丹尼斯·施罗德；迎来卡里斯·勒韦尔 (Caris LeVert) 和邓肯·罗宾逊 (Duncan Robinson)——活塞队对于他们寄予厚望的长期核心阵容仍有许多未知需要探索。艾维在小样本下的三分球进步是真实的吗？艾维和汤普森能帮助分担坎宁安沉重的进攻负担吗？霍兰德在经历一个沉寂的新秀赛季后，将如何融入球队？
金州勇士：47%
勇士队上赛季大部分时间里的问题在于，当斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 休息时，他们的进攻就完全崩溃。根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，当库里和吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III) 都不在场时，金州勇士每百回合仅能得到104.2分。这一数据在全联盟所有阵容中仅排在第5百分位。作为对比，当库里在场时，金州勇士的百回合得分为120.1分（第85百分位）。
然而，在交易截止日后，巴特勒的到来解决了这个问题。当巴特勒在场而库里不在场时，勇士队的进攻效率达到了相当可观的113.9，排在第47百分位。在这种情况下，达到平均水平就足够了，因为勇士队在库里在场时表现如此出色，他们只需要在他下场时稳住局势即可。再加上巴特勒在场、库里缺阵时段那现象级的、达到第99百分位的防守表现，就不难理解为何在巴特勒首次为球队出战后，金州勇士取得了23胜8负的战绩，净效率值高居联盟第三。
诚然，在季后赛第二轮库里受伤时，勇士队的进攻确实崩溃了。但当时巴特勒也同样带伤作战。
休斯顿火箭：1.21
上赛季，火箭队在几乎所有方面都是一支优秀的球队，但一个弱点让他们付出了沉重代价。根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，休斯顿的半场进攻效率仅排在联盟第22位，是所有季后赛球队中最差的，并且在单打对位中尤其难以得分。
根据GeniusIQ的数据，无论在常规赛还是季后赛，休斯顿每次单打的回合得分仅为0.91分；只有爵士、奇才和猛龙的单打效率更低。休斯顿的外线球员中，无人能面对严阵以待的防守者持续创造出好的出手机会，弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet)（在至少100次单打的球员中排在第15百分位）、阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson)（第15百分位）和杰伦·格林 (Jalen Green)（第12百分位）都表现挣扎。
这时，凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 登场了。他不仅比火箭队此前的选择更强，而且上赛季的单打效率冠绝全联盟，每次单打能得到1.21分。火箭队曾有一个弱点，现在他们解决了它。随着杜兰特在比赛末段接管进攻，他们将成为西部一股不可忽视的力量。
印第安纳步行者：13.6
本赛季，步行者队的首要任务是为泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 在2026-27赛季从右跟腱撕裂中回归时，让球队能立刻重返竞争者行列做好准备。在此之前，他们主要有两步需要完成。第一，他们需要找到迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner) 在中锋位置上的长期替代者，无论是队内的以赛亚·杰克逊 (Isaiah Jackson)、杰伊·赫夫 (Jay Huff) 还是外部人选。第二，他们需要确定球队近年在首轮选中的年轻替补——本尼迪克特·马图林 (Bennedict Mathurin)、本·谢泼德 (Ben Sheppard) 和贾雷斯·沃克 (Jarace Walker)——哪些值得长期培养。
前6号秀马图林是最引人关注的选择，因为他冲击篮筐的得分能力在印第安纳的阵容中独一无二。但自新秀赛季表现惊艳以来，马图林并未展现出太多进步。他的传统数据和高阶数据在前三个NBA赛季中都非常相似；例如，他的球员效率值（PER，15为平均水平）几乎没有变化，从新秀赛季的13.1到二年级的13.0，再到第三年的13.6。如果马图林能在哈利伯顿缺阵期间取得突破，而不是停留在这个数据瓶颈期，那对步行者队的长期发展将大有裨益。
洛杉矶快船：14.5
上赛季，快船队在大部分时间里都展现出统治力——只要他们的球星在场。而当他们休息时，情况就变了。根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，中锋伊维察·祖巴茨 (Ivica Zubac) 在场时，快船队每百回合净胜对手14.5分，这是所有出场时间至少1000分钟的球员中第三大的差距（仅次于尼古拉·约基奇和多里安·芬尼-史密斯 (Dorian Finney-Smith)）。科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 的在场/离场净效率差为10.5分，排名第九。
换句话说，快船队需要升级他们的替补阵容，而他们整个夏天都在致力于解决这个问题。他们签下了布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez)，作为祖巴茨的完美替补中锋。他们以廉价合同签下了布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal) 和克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul)，为后场提供更多组织能力。他们还交易来了约翰·科林斯 (John Collins)，为祖巴茨和伦纳德之间的锋线增添了新的、多位置的维度。快船队阵容偏老，且面临西部顶级的激烈竞争，但他们是一个真正的竞争者。
洛杉矶湖人：4.4
拥有卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic) 和勒布朗·詹姆斯，湖人队理论上掌握了一种无法防守的战术；詹姆斯与一位天赋异禀的后卫之间的挡拆长久以来都能制造错位并发挥奇效。然而，在上赛季那笔重磅交易之后，湖人队并没有频繁地让他们的两位主要组织者打挡拆：根据GeniusIQ的数据，在常规赛中，詹姆斯每百回合为东契奇掩护3.8次，而东契奇为詹姆斯掩护0.6次，合计每百回合4.4次。
作为对比，詹姆斯和凯里·欧文在克利夫兰合作的最后两个赛季，每百回合互相掩护15.1次。詹姆斯和奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves) 在湖人队共同效力期间，每百回合互相掩护11.3次。
公平地说，湖人队上赛季是在临场适应一种全新的情况，并且这对明星组合的挡拆频率在季后赛中大幅上升，从每百回合4.4次增加到9.2次（尽管几乎都是詹姆斯为东契奇掩护，而非反向）。不出所料，这种配合产出了大量得分，当东契奇-詹姆斯的挡拆直接导致投篮、犯规或失误时，湖人队平均每次进攻得分超过1.2分。但在2025-26赛季，他们应该更多地利用这一战术，以最大限度地发挥这对独特组合的威力。
孟菲斯灰熊：30.5%
灰熊队在其竞争时间线上处于一个奇怪的位置：他们在夏天通过交易德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 而后退了一步，但他们仍然拥有一支由几位高薪明星领衔的、深度和平衡兼备的阵容。但如果贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 无法修复他那不稳定的三分跳投，他们就无法在季后赛中掀起任何波澜。
在过去三个饱受伤病和禁赛困扰的赛季里，莫兰特的三分命中率仅为30.5%，这是同期所有控球后卫中的最差表现（最低500次出手）。纵观其整个职业生涯，莫兰特的三分命中率也只有31.6%，在现役控球后卫中排名倒数第二（最低1000次出手）；仅有拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克 (Russell Westbrook) 比他更不准。莫兰特拥有其他出色的技能，但在如今这个痴迷于空间的现代NBA，这绝不是一个赢球的公式。
迈阿密热火：56%
上赛季开始前，人们有理由期待巴姆·阿德巴约 (Bam Adebayo) 迎来期待已久的进攻飞跃，因为他已开始更多地出手并命中三分球。但即便阿德巴约在远投方面表现出显著进步——他上赛季命中了79记三分，而在2024年3月之前他的整个职业生涯仅命中9记——他在进攻端的其他方面却出现了下滑。
阿德巴约的真实命中率跌至生涯新低的56%，这已是他自2020-21赛季创下生涯最高的63%以来的连续第四年下滑。他创造了生涯最差的罚球率，鲜少冲击篮筐，并且是联盟中效率最低的低位得分手之一。随着诺曼·鲍威尔 (Norman Powell)——上赛季每触球得分领跑NBA的球员——加盟并与泰勒·希罗 (Tyler Herro) 搭档，热火队在2025-26赛季的后场将拥有更强的进攻火力，但他们需要阿德巴约在锋线上实现反弹，才能在东部具备竞争力。
密尔沃基雄鹿：1
雄鹿队在2021年曾掌控NBA。扬尼斯·阿德托昆博是两届MVP，也是新晋总决赛MVP，年仅26岁的他正值生涯巅峰。他身边围绕着一群实力强劲的老将。然而……自那以后，他们在四个赛季里总共只赢得了一轮季后赛系列赛：
- 2021-22赛季：第二轮负于凯尔特人
- 2022-23赛季：第一轮负于热火
- 2023-24赛季：第一轮负于步行者
- 2024-25赛季：第一轮负于步行者
在这些季后赛失利中，伤病限制了密尔沃基的球星们——达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard)、克里斯·米德尔顿 (Khris Middleton) 和扬尼斯本人——所以运气不佳在这段平庸的时期里扮演了一定角色。但无论有何借口，对于一支处于密尔沃基这样位置的球队来说，这样的结果都是巨大的失望，也正是这些失利促使雄鹿队在今年夏天进行了财政上的豪赌。
明尼苏达森林狼：21
安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 在NBA最佳球员的排名中不断攀升。2022-23赛季，作为三年级生的他首次入选全明星。2023-24赛季，他入选NBA最佳阵容二队，在投票中排名第七。2024-25赛季，他再次入选最佳阵容二队，但排名更进一步，位列第六。
与此相关的是，过去21支NBA总冠军球队都拥有一位现任或近期的NBA最佳阵容一阵成员；自2004年的活塞队以来，每一支夺冠球队都需要一位排名前五的球员来引领他们走向荣耀之巅。爱德华兹还未达到那个水平。但年仅24岁的他，绝对有能力实现这一飞跃。
连续两年在分区决赛中失利后，森林狼队本赛季有许多问题需要解决——寻找尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) 的替代者，管理年近四旬的迈克·康利 (Mike Conley) 的比赛负荷，以及整合年轻球员——但最重要的进展将是爱德华兹能否再向前迈出一步。他需要成为一名名副其实的最佳阵容一阵成员，这是已被证明的、冠军球队头号球星的必经之路。
新奥尔良鹈鹕：2018
考虑到阵容中普遍存在的伤病风险，以及德章泰·默里 (Dejounte Murray) 已在从跟腱撕裂中恢复，本赛季新奥尔良的现实最佳情景是什么？鹈鹕队上一次在西部联盟常规赛排名中进入前六还是在2018年。那已经是很久以前的事了，当时新奥尔良的阵容中还有托尼·阿伦 (Tony Allen)、约什·史密斯 (Josh Smith)、埃梅卡·奥卡福 (Emeka Okafor)、欧米尔·阿西克 (Omer Asik) 和贾米尔·尼尔森 (Jameer Nelson) 等球员；那简直可以说是另一个时代的NBA篮球了。
恕我直言，鹈鹕队今年夏天那笔最奇怪的交易简直是雪上加霜——他们将一个来自自己或雄鹿队的无保护2026年首轮签送至亚特兰大，仅为了在2025年选秀中从第23顺位升至第13顺位——他们在2025-26赛季面临的下行风险远大于上行空间。即便是上赛季锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson) 出战时，鹈鹕队的战绩也仅为10胜20负，按此胜率计算整个赛季仅能赢27场，这会让他们拿到一个前十顺位的选秀权。
纽约尼克斯：940
由杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)、OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby)、约什·哈特 (Josh Hart)、米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges) 和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 组成的五人阵容，在常规赛中共同出场了940分钟，是NBA中出场时间最长的阵容。仅有另外一套阵容（森林狼队的首发阵容，714分钟）的出场时间达到了500分钟。考虑到前主教练汤姆·锡伯杜 (Tom Thibodeau) 的执教偏好，这是意料之中的。
但与预期相反的是，尽管尼克斯队的首发球员之间有着维拉诺瓦大学的渊源和理论上的位置平衡，但他们并未能很好地融合。该阵容的净效率值为+3.2，听起来尚可，但对于一个高使用率的阵容来说，这实际上低于平均水平；根据对NBA高阶数据的分析，上赛季出场时间最多的50套五人阵容的平均净效率值为+5.0。到了季后赛，纽约首发阵容的净效率值为-6.2，球队依靠替补球员米切尔·罗宾逊 (Mitchell Robinson) 和迈尔斯·麦克布莱德 (Miles McBride) 的阵容才得以杀入分区决赛。
在新任主教练迈克·布朗 (Mike Brown) 的带领下，并且阵容中多了两位更可靠的替补（乔丹·克拉克森 (Jordan Clarkson) 和盖尔雄·亚布塞莱 (Guerschon Yabusele)），纽约的首发阵容本赛季的出场时间或许不会那么长。但他们不仅需要减少共同出场的时间，更需要在合作的第二个赛季里打得更好，纽约队才有可能闯入本世纪的首次总决赛。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆：99.2%
NBA最好的球队将以原班人马回归。狄龙·琼斯 (Dillon Jones) 是雷霆队中唯一一位上赛季季后赛有过出场记录但现已离队的球员，而他全部的46分钟季后赛出场时间都来自垃圾时间。换句话说，这支2024-25赛季的总冠军球队，在2025-26赛季将迎回贡献了他们季后赛99.2%出场时间的球员。
这种连续性只会帮助雷霆队冲击NBA八年来的首次卫冕：他们深谙彼此的打法，年轻球员又多了一年的高强度比赛经验，而且他们依然保持着深度、韧性和平衡。雷霆队上赛季创造了NBA历史的净胜分纪录，他们今年甚至可能变得更强。
奥兰多魔术：2012
我做这个分析已经好几年了，而奥兰多的决定性数据至今在每一版中都是2012。这是因为2012年是奥兰多上一次在进攻效率上排名联盟前半区的年份。自那年夏天交易德怀特·霍华德 (Dwight Howard) 以来，根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，魔术队的进攻效率排名分别为：第27、29、27、17、28、25、22、21、29、30、26、22和第26位。
也许今年会是改变的一年；奥兰多球星们的健康状况总不可能比上赛季更差了，而德斯蒙德·贝恩正是魔术队长期需要的射手。一个围绕贝恩、杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs)、弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 和保罗·班凯罗构建的阵容，应该能有不错的得分能力。同时，奥兰多的防守应该会非常强大，以至于只要有平均水平的进攻就足以让他们成为竞争者。
费城76人：58
在过去两个赛季中，乔尔·恩比德总共只为76人队出战了58场常规赛。更具体地说，自2024年因缺席费城客场对阵丹佛的比赛而遭到不当嘲讽以来，恩比德在可能的121场比赛中仅出场25次（21%），而且即便出场，他也未能展现出巅峰时期的状态。
如果恩比德能保持健康，费城本赛季可能成为东部最好的球队之一，但事到如今，我们已无法指望这样一个巨大的假设。因此，76人队将带着可能是所有球队中最大（下限与上限之间）的差距进入2025-26赛季。
菲尼克斯太阳：2032
没有哪支球队比菲尼克斯为现在透支了更多未来，却收获更少。下赛季，他们甚至不被看好能进入西部前十。但太阳队也无法现实地转向摆烂姿态，因为他们直到2032年才拥有自己首轮选秀权的控制权。这意味着在太阳队今年夏天将10号签送给休斯顿（之后又在凯文·杜兰特的交易中换回）之后，其他球队还将有六年的时间从菲尼克斯的乐透可能性中获利。
波特兰开拓者：16%
在2024-25赛季强势收官并经历了一个引进了朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday) 和达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard) 的全力以赴的夏天后，波特兰是一支正在崛起的球队。拥有德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)、图马尼·卡马拉 (Toumani Camara) 和多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 组成的锋线，开拓者队可能拥有联盟最好的防守之一。
但波特兰的得分能力足以让他们跻身季后赛行列吗？一个被低估的担忧是波特兰的失误倾向：上赛季，开拓者队有16%的回合以失误告终，排名联盟第29位；作为参考，失误率垫底的另外四支球队分别是爵士、篮网、黄蜂和奇才，这可以说是联盟最差的四支队伍。
让情况可能更糟的是，开拓者队交易了安芬尼·西蒙斯 (Anfernee Simons)，他的助攻失误比是全队最好的。在利拉德本赛季不太可能回归的情况下，开拓者队将不得不依赖斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson) 来组织大量进攻。根据Stathead的数据，在上赛季所有出场时间超过1000分钟且使用率高于平均水平的30名控球后卫中，亨德森的失误率排名第29位，仅优于拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克。
萨克拉门托国王：120.9
上赛季，在超过1000个回合的共同出场时间里，国王队由多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯、德玛尔·德罗赞和扎克·拉文组成的新三巨头阵容是净负分的，原因是他们的防守每百回合失分高达惊人的120.9分，根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，这在全联盟所有阵容中仅排在第11百分位。当马利克·蒙克 (Malik Monk) 加入这个三人组时，萨克拉门托的防守变得更糟，防守效率跌至124.8，仅排在第3百分位。
这些数据中固然有一些三分球防守运气不佳的成分，但国王队的阵容里也并没有充满能将他们拉回体面水平的高水平防守者。在经历了一个短暂的竞争窗口期后，萨克拉门托再次陷入不上不下的尴尬境地，他们拥有天赋异禀的进攻，却无法弥补联盟最差之一的防守。
圣安东尼奥马刺：30.4%
本赛季，圣安东尼奥最重要的进展是维克托·文班亚马在经历上赛季全明星周末后使他赛季报销的深静脉血栓后，将以何种状态回归。如果他能保持健康，文班亚马可能在他职业生涯的第三个赛季就入选NBA最佳阵容一阵并赢得年度最佳防守球员。
但第二重要的进展是马刺队中那群天赋异禀的后卫们如何融合——以及他们是否能为文班亚马提供足够的空间，以适应现代NBA。作为一个整体，德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)、年度最佳新秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔和榜眼秀迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 在上赛季的三分球命中率仅为30.4%（哈珀的数据计入大学时期）。福克斯上赛季的三分命中率为31%，职业生涯为33%。卡斯尔作为新秀的命中率为28.5%，在他唯一的大学赛季里为26.7%。哈珀在大学的命中率为33.3%。
圣安东尼奥有很长的时间来围绕文班亚马建队，但随着27岁的福克斯现已签下一份大额续约合同，如果这个三人组在拉开空间方面持续挣扎，马刺队在未来几年可能将面临一些艰难的人员决策。
多伦多猛龙：110万美元
猛龙队的阵容很昂贵：根据Spotrac的数据，他们预计将超出第一土豪线110万美元，这使他们成为仅有的六支触发土豪线的球队之一。猛龙队的情况也很特殊：另外五支触发土豪线的球队在过去两个赛季中至少打进过分区决赛或拿到过联盟第一的战绩，而多伦多在三个赛季里甚至连季后赛都没进过。
换句话说，处于这个财务区间的球队愿意承担各种土豪线带来的惩罚，是因为他们正试图最大化一个“赢在当下”的窗口期。然而，猛龙队却组建了联盟中最昂贵的阵容之一（布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 年薪4000万美元！伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley) 年薪3250万美元！），尽管没有任何迹象表明他们接近竞争者行列，或者他们薪资丰厚的首发阵容能够融洽地合作。这种投资给了猛龙队潜在的上升空间，尤其是在实力较弱的东部，但如果各个部分不能迅速磨合，也存在巨大的下行风险。
犹他爵士：23
重建进行到第三年，爵士队仍在变得更年轻。在上赛季出场时间达到800分钟的11名犹他球员中，只有四人年龄超过23岁——而他们在休赛期送走了其中三人（科林·塞克斯顿 (Collin Sexton)、约翰·科林斯和乔丹·克拉克森）。在犹他为数不多的老将中，只剩下现年28岁的劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen)。
虽然优素福·努尔基奇 (Jusuf Nurkic)、乔治·尼昂 (Georges Niang)、凯文·乐福 (Kevin Love) 和凯尔·安德森 (Kyle Anderson) 这些在休赛期交易中加盟的球员本赛季会扮演多大角色还有待观察，但似乎犹他更有可能在2025-26赛季给予年轻人更多的上场时间。两位新的首轮秀已经到来，而前乐透秀泰勒·亨德里克斯 (Taylor Hendricks)——现年21岁——在腿部和脚踝手术导致他上赛季仅出战三场后，也需要更多的比赛时间。
华盛顿奇才：64
华盛顿奇才队史上仅有两次单赛季输球场次达到或超过64场。第一次是在2023-24赛季，他们取得了15胜67负的战绩；第二次是在2024-25赛季，他们取得了18胜64负（净胜分更差）。考虑到本赛季奇才队将严重依赖年轻人，即使在经历了队史最糟糕的两个赛季之后，也没有理由期望他们在重建的第三年能取得更多成功。
点击查看原文：The stat that could swing every NBA team's 2025-26 season
The stat that could swing every NBA team’s 2025-26 season
It’s still the NBA offseason, but the 2025-26 season is slowly starting to rumble into gear.
The new national TV calendar is taking shape. The season schedule was unveiled this past week. Training camps open in just over a month.
So, let’s take stock of where all 30 teams stand before the heavy season preview content arrives. Here is one defining number that explains each team’s position as the 2025-26 season approaches, and what key factors might determine their outcomes over the next 10 months.
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS
Atlanta Hawks: 10 and 5
There are plenty of reasons for Hawks optimism this season, from Dyson Daniels’ Most Improved Player breakout to the best offseason for any team in the Eastern Conference. But the Hawks’ chances for another conference finals run, half a decade after their surprise trip in 2021, might rest on how high Jalen Johnson rises this season. The oft-injured forward played just 36 games this past season, but when he was available, few players did a better job stuffing the stat sheet.
Johnson averaged 10 rebounds and five assists per game this past season, joining Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Domantas Sabonis as the only players to reach those round numbers. Over the past four seasons, the only other player to hit those benchmarks is Joel Embiid. That’s not to say Johnson is an MVP contender – but he could be a lot closer to an All-NBA spot and true stardom than anyone realizes.
Boston Celtics: 99.5%
The Celtics’ biggest absence this season will clearly be Jayson Tatum as the six-time All-Star recovers from an Achilles tear. But don’t sleep on just how drastically Boston’s big man rotation has changed: This past postseason, the Celtics gave 99.5% of their center minutes outside garbage time to Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet, per Cleaning the Glass. Now, all three are gone.
They’ll be replaced by some combination of Neemias Queta, Luka Garza, Chris Boucher and Xavier Tillman, who all bring various strengths and play styles to the team, but are also worse than Horford, Porzingis and Kornet. That’s a major adjustment for Boston and coach Joe Mazzulla, and another reason to doubt the Celtics’ ability to compete in their Tatum-less gap year.
Brooklyn Nets: 3
According to GeniusIQ tracking data, six players averaged at least three minutes of possession in their games with Brooklyn this past season. Five of those six – Dennis Schroder, D’Angelo Russell, Ben Simmons, Killian Hayes and Trendon Watford – are no longer with the organization; neither is Cameron Johnson, who ranked second on the team in points.
New Net Michael Porter Jr. should fill some of Johnson’s shotmaking duties, but he’s not much of an initiator, which means there will be ballhandling opportunities available to the Nets’ young backcourt. Expect lots of rookie growing pains, after Brooklyn drafted a record five first-rounders. Additionally, expect Cam Thomas (assuming he re-signs with the Nets in restricted free agency) to post a ludicrous usage rate, after he put up a 32.6% mark this past season – just behind Paolo Banchero and Cade Cunningham in the league’s usage rankings.
Charlotte Hornets: 35.9%
LaMelo Ball led the league with a 35.9% usage rate this past season, the 23rd-highest single-season mark ever. Typically, players with such heavy workloads are superstars putting up big numbers; 19 of the 22 players ahead of LaMelo made an All-NBA team in the season in question. (The exceptions are DeMarcus Cousins the season that he was traded from the Kings to the Pelicans, Jermaine O’Neal the season that he was suspended following the Malice at the Palace and Michael Jordan in his first Wizards season.)
But even if Ball had played enough games to qualify for All-NBA consideration, he wouldn’t have come close. His PER was the worst for any player with a 35% usage rate in NBA history. Factor in his frequent injury absences, and it’s unclear if Ball is still a franchise player the Hornets should build around, or rather a ball-dominant entertainer who doesn’t win games.
Chicago Bulls: 164
The Bulls have been the embodiment of NBA mediocrity for years and they have the record to prove it. Over the past four seasons since they added DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso to start a new era for the franchise, the Bulls are 164-164. And while DeRozan, Ball, Caruso and Zach LaVine are all off the roster, they still show no signs of embarking on a true rebuild – they sought players in trades for Ball and Caruso instead of draft picks – meaning they’re poised to end up right back near .500 in 2025-26.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 42%
In three seasons with Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers have a 163-83 record in the regular season (66% win rate), which is third-best in the NBA over that span. But in the playoffs, they’ve gone just 11-15 (42%).
Injuries have played a role, as Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have all missed at least one playoff game in that span. But Cleveland hasn’t even come close in any of its playoff defeats, falling in five games in each of the past three seasons.
Following a 64-18 showing this past season, expect many more regular-season wins from Cleveland in 2025-26. But the Cavaliers have now reached the same point as the Milwaukee Bucks at the start of the decade: It doesn’t matter how impressive they look in the regular season because they’ll have to wait until the playoffs to prove that anything is different this year.
Dallas Mavericks: 5
For the Mavericks to seize on their competitive window before 33-year-old Kyrie Irving and 32-year-old Anthony Davis reach their mid-30s, they’ll primarily need Irving to recover from left ACL surgery this season. Only slightly secondary, though, is a need for No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg, at 18 years old on opening night, to be an immediate high-impact contributor.
Flagg is one of the best NBA prospects in decades, so he certainly has that potential. But it’s a tall order for any player with his age and experience to contribute to winning basketball, no matter his talent. Only five teenagers have ever been regular starters on the perimeter for a team that made the playoffs according to Stathead: Jayson Tatum, Luol Deng, Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker and Stephon Marbury. Only Tatum has done so in the past two decades.
Denver Nuggets: 7
There’s a fun stat at Basketball Reference called MVP award shares, which measures the percentage of possible votes that a player received, then adds up each season’s figure. In other words, it rewards players who not only win MVP, but do so decisively, and finish high in the balloting year after year.
With three resounding MVP wins and two runner-up finishes in the past five seasons, Nikola Jokic is zooming up this leaderboard. With his second-place finish in 2024-25, he moved into seventh place in career MVP award shares, passing Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O’Neal, Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant and Giannis Antetokounmpo. With a similar showing in 2025-26, he would pass Bill Russell and Magic Johnson. With two more top-tier seasons, he could pass Larry Bird and maybe even Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to move into third place all-time, behind only LeBron James and Michael Jordan.
There’s a lot at stake for Denver as a team this season as the Nuggets try to win another title after a strong summer. But there’s also a lot at stake for Jokic individually as he continues to make his case as one of the best players in NBA history.
Detroit Pistons: 2
Even as the Pistons made a leap this past season from a league-worst 14 wins to 44 wins and a hard-fought playoff loss, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren played together in just two games for five minutes. Because of various injuries and rotation decisions, Detroit’s four most important building blocks, all 23 or younger, essentially went an entire season without sharing the floor. Add in No. 5 pick Ron Holland, and the quintet of recent lottery picks never played together.
So even as Detroit makes some substitutions in the veteran portion of its rotation in 2025-26 – Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dennis Schroder out; Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson in – there is still plenty for the Pistons to discover about their hoped-for long-term core. Is Ivey’s small-sample 3-point improvement real? Can Ivey and Thompson help lift some of Cunningham’s heavy offensive burden? Where does Holland fit in after a quiet rookie campaign?
Golden State Warriors: 47%
The Warriors’ problem for the majority of this past season was that their offense completely collapsed when Stephen Curry rested. Golden State scored just 104.2 points per 100 possessions when it was without both Curry and Jimmy Butler III, according to Cleaning the Glass. That figure ranked in the 5th percentile of all lineups leaguewide. For comparison, Golden State was up at 120.1 points per 100 possessions (85th percentile) with Curry.
However, Butler’s presence solved that problem after the trade deadline. The Warriors had a perfectly respectable 113.9 offensive rating when Butler took the floor without Curry, ranking in the 47th percentile. Average is just fine in those circumstances, because the Warriors are so great with Curry that they just need to hold serve without him. Add in phenomenal, 99th-percentile defense in those Butler-without-Curry minutes, and it’s easy to see why Golden State went 23-8 with the third-best net rating in the league after Butler first suited up.
Granted, the Warriors’ offense did fall apart in the second round of the playoffs when Curry was injured. But Butler was also banged up at the time.
Houston Rockets: 1.21
The Rockets were an excellent team in almost all facets this past season, but one weakness cost them dearly. Houston ranked just 22nd in half-court scoring efficiency, per Cleaning the Glass, which was the worst of any playoff team, and proved particularly unable to get buckets in one-on-one matchups.
Houston scored 0.91 points per isolation play, according to GeniusIQ, in both the regular season and postseason; only the Jazz, Wizards and Raptors scored at a worse rate from their isolations. None of Houston’s perimeter players could create consistently good looks against set defenders, as Fred VanVleet (15th percentile among players with at least 100 isos), Amen Thompson (15th percentile) and Jalen Green (12th percentile) struggled.
Enter Kevin Durant, who isn’t just better than the Rockets’ previous options, but led the whole league in isolation efficiency this past season, with 1.21 points per iso. The Rockets had one weakness, and they solved it. With Durant taking control of the offense in late-game scenarios, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with in the West.
Indiana Pacers: 13.6
The Pacers’ primary job this season is to position themselves to vault right back to contention when Tyrese Haliburton returns from a right Achilles tear in 2026-27. There are two main steps to accomplish before then. First, they need to find Myles Turner’s long-term replacement at center, whether that’s Isaiah Jackson, Jay Huff or an external candidate. Second, they need to determine which of the team’s young reserves recently picked in the first round – Bennedict Mathurin, Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker – is a long-term keeper.
Mathurin, a former No. 6 pick, is the most intriguing option because his downhill scoring is unique on Indiana’s roster. But Mathurin hasn’t evinced much development since an impressive rookie season. Both his traditional and advanced stats have been very similar across his first three NBA seasons; for instance, his PER (a stat where 15 is average) has barely bounced from 13.1 as a rookie to 13.0 as a sophomore to 13.6 in his third year. If Mathurin can stretch his wings in Haliburton’s absence, rather than remaining on this statistical plateau, it would be a boon for the Pacers in the long run.
LA Clippers: 14.5
The Clippers were dominant for large stretches of this past season – as long as their stars were on the floor. Things changed when they rested. The Clippers were 14.5 points per 100 possessions better with center Ivica Zubac on the court, per Cleaning the Glass, which was the third-largest margin for any player with at least 1,000 minutes (behind Nikola Jokic and Dorian Finney-Smith). Kawhi Leonard’s on/off differential was 10.5 points, which ranked ninth.
In other words, the Clippers needed to upgrade their bench, and they spent the summer working on that problem. They signed Brook Lopez, a perfect backup center for Zubac. They signed Bradley Beal and Chris Paul on cheap contracts to provide more playmaking in the backcourt. And they traded for John Collins, adding a new, multipositional dimension to the frontcourt between Zubac and Leonard. The Clippers are old and face intense competition atop the West, but they’re a legitimate contender.
Los Angeles Lakers: 4.4
With Luka Doncic and LeBron James on the roster, the Lakers have access to a theoretically unguardable play; picks between James and a talented guard have long forced mismatches and worked wonders. Yet the Lakers didn’t run many pick-and-rolls between their two lead creators after this past season’s blockbuster trade: In the regular season, James set 3.8 picks per 100 possessions for Doncic, per GeniusIQ, while Doncic set 0.6 for James, for a total of 4.4 picks per 100 possessions.
For comparison, James and Kyrie Irving set 15.1 picks per 100 possessions for each other across their last two seasons together in Cleveland. James and Austin Reaves have set 11.3 per 100 for each other across their shared Lakers tenure.
To be fair, the Lakers were adjusting to a novel situation on the fly this past season, and the star duo’s pick rate rose dramatically in the playoffs, from 4.4 to 9.2 per 100 possessions (though that was almost all James setting for Doncic, rather than the other way around). It unsurprisingly produced plenty of points, as the Lakers averaged better than 1.2 points per play when a Doncic-James pick led directly to a shot, foul or turnover. But they should utilize it a lot more in 2025-26 to get the most out of this unique partnership.
Memphis Grizzlies: 30.5%
The Grizzlies are in a strange spot on their competitive timeline: They took a step back this summer by trading Desmond Bane, but they still boast a deep, balanced roster led by a couple high-paid stars. But they’re not going to make any playoff noise if Ja Morant can’t fix his rickety 3-point jumper.
Over his past three injury- and suspension-riddled seasons, Morant has shot just 30.5% from distance, which is the worst mark among all point guards in that span (minimum 500 attempts). Over his entire career, Morant’s made only 31.6% of his 3s, which is the second worst among active point guards (minimum 1,000 attempts); only Russell Westbrook is less accurate. Morant has other standout skills, but that’s simply not a winning formula in the modern, space-obsessed NBA.
Miami Heat: 56%
Entering this past season, there was reason to expect Bam Adebayo’s long-awaited offensive leap, as he had started taking and making more 3-pointers. But even as Adebayo showed meaningful improvement from distance – he made 79 3-pointers this past season, versus just nine in his entire career before March 2024 – he suffered a drop-off across the rest of his offensive output.
Adebayo’s true shooting percentage fell to a career-low 56%, marking its fourth straight decline since his career-high 63% in 2020-21. He generated a career-worst free-throw rate, didn’t get to the rim and was one of the league’s least efficient post-up scorers. With Norman Powell – who led the NBA in points per touch this past season – joining Tyler Herro, the Heat will have more offensive juice in the backcourt in 2025-26, but they need a Bam bounce-back in the frontcourt to contend in the East.
Milwaukee Bucks: 1
The Bucks controlled the NBA in 2021. Giannis Antetokounmpo was a two-time MVP and a newly awarded Finals MVP in the prime of his career at age 26. A strong complement of veterans surrounded him. And … they’ve won a total of one playoff series in four seasons since:
- 2021-22: Lost in second round to Celtics
- 2022-23: Lost in first round to Heat
- 2023-24: Lost in first round to Pacers
- 2024-25: Lost in first round to Pacers
Injuries have limited Milwaukee’s stars – Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Giannis himself – in those playoff losses, so bad luck has played a role in this lackluster stretch. But no matter the excuses, the results represent a massive disappointment for a team in Milwaukee’s position, and they’re the impetus for the Bucks’ big financial gambles this summer.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 21
Anthony Edwards keeps creeping up the rankings of best players in the NBA. In 2022-23, he made his first All-Star team as a third-year player. In 2023-24, he made second-team All-NBA, finishing seventh in the voting. In 2024-25, he made second-team All-NBA again but did one spot better by finishing sixth in the vote.
On a related note, the past 21 NBA champions have had a current or recent first-team All-NBA honoree; every title-winner since the 2004 Pistons has needed a top-5 player to lead the way to the promised land. Edwards isn’t quite there yet. But at 24 years old, he’s certainly capable of making that jump.
Coming off consecutive conference finals losses, the Timberwolves have much to work out this season – replacing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, managing Mike Conley’s workload in his late 30s, incorporating youngsters – but the most important development would be for Edwards to take one more step forward. He needs to become a bona fide All-NBA first-teamer, which is the proven path for the best player on a championship team.
New Orleans Pelicans: 2018
What is the realistic best-case scenario for New Orleans this season, with injury risks across the roster and Dejounte Murray already recovering from a torn Achilles? The Pelicans last finished in the top six in the Western Conference standings in 2018. That was so long ago that players on New Orleans’ roster included Tony Allen, Josh Smith, Emeka Okafor, Omer Asik and Jameer Nelson; it might as well have been a different era of NBA basketball.
With apologies for piling on the Pelicans for the strangest trade of the summer – when they sent an unprotected 2026 first-round pick from either themselves or the Bucks to Atlanta, in exchange for moving up from No. 23 to No. 13 in the 2025 draft – there’s simply way more downside than upside in 2025-26. Even when Zion Williamson played this past season, the Pelicans went 10-20, a 27-win pace that would have given them a top-10 pick.
New York Knicks: 940
The five-man lineup of Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns played 940 minutes in the regular season, by far the most in the NBA. Only one other lineup (the Timberwolves’ starters at 714) reached 500 minutes. That was to be expected given ex-coach Tom Thibodeau’s preferences.
But contrary to expectations, the Knicks’ starters didn’t mesh all that well, despite their Villanova connections and theoretical positional balance. The group finished with a plus-3.2 net rating, which sounds OK but is actually below-average for a high-usage lineup; the 50 five-man units with the most playing time this past season finished with an average net rating of plus-5.0, according to an analysis of NBA Advanced Stats data. Then in the playoffs, New York’s starters had a minus-6.2 net rating, as the team relied on lineups with reserves Mitchell Robinson and Miles McBride to reach the conference finals.
Under new head coach Mike Brown, with two more reliable reserves (Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele) in the fold, New York’s starters probably won’t spend quite so much time together this season. But they can’t just play less often; they also need to play better in their second season together for New York to reach its first Finals this century.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 99.2%
The best team in the NBA is running it back. Dillon Jones is the only Thunder player who received any playing time this past postseason who’s gone now, and all 46 of his playoff minutes came in garbage time. Put another way, the 2024-25 champions are returning players who accounted for 99.2% of their playoff minutes in 2025-26.
That continuity should only help the Thunder as they attempt to mount the NBA’s first repeat campaign in eight years: They know how to play together, their young players have another year of high-stakes experience and they’re still deep, tough and balanced. The Thunder set the NBA record for point differential this past season, and it’s possible they’ll be even better this year.
Orlando Magic: 2012
I’ve been performing this exercise for years, and Orlando’s defining number has been 2012 in every edition thus far. That’s because 2012 is the last year in which Orlando ranked in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency. Since trading Dwight Howard that summer, the Magic’s offense has ranked, per Cleaning the Glass: 27th, 29th, 27th, 17th, 28th, 25th, 22nd, 21st, 29th, 30th, 26th, 22nd and 26th.
Maybe this will be the year; Orlando’s stars could hardly be less healthy than they were this past season, and Desmond Bane is the shooter the Magic have long needed. A lineup built around Bane, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero should be able to score at a decent clip, and Orlando’s defense should be so strong that even an average offense would be enough to contend.
Philadelphia 76ers: 58
Over the past two seasons, Joel Embiid has played just 58 total regular-season games for the 76ers. More specifically, since he was improperly mocked for missing Philadelphia’s trip to Denver in 2024, Embiid has appeared in 25 of a possible 121 games (21%), and he didn’t look like his peak self even when he played.
With a healthy Embiid, Philadelphia could be one of the best teams in the East this season, but at this point, it’s impossible to count on such a massive hypothetical. Instead, the 76ers will enter the 2025-26 season with perhaps the largest gap between floor and ceiling for any team.
Phoenix Suns: 2032
No team has mortgaged more of its future for less in the present than Phoenix, which is an underdog to finish even in the top 10 in the West next season. But it’s not as if the Suns can realistically pivot to a tanking posture, because they don’t control their first-round pick until 2032. That’s six more years of other teams feasting on Phoenix’s lottery possibilities after the Suns gave Houston the No. 10 pick this summer (only to reacquire it in the Kevin Durant trade).
Portland Trail Blazers: 16%
Portland is a team on the rise after a strong finish to the 2024-25 season and a go-for-it summer that brought Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard to Portland. With a frontcourt of Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Donovan Clingan, the Trail Blazers could boast one of the best defenses in the league.
But will Portland score enough to push into the playoff picture? One underrated concern is Portland’s penchant for turnovers: The Trail Blazers coughed up the ball on 16% of their possessions this past season, which ranked 29th; for context, the other teams in the bottom five in turnover rate were the Jazz, Nets, Hornets and Wizards, arguably the four worst teams.
Making matters potentially worse is that the Blazers traded Anfernee Simons, who had the best assist-to-turnover rate on the team. With Lillard unlikely to return this season, the Blazers will have to rely on Scoot Henderson to generate a lot of their offense. Out of 30 point guards with at least 1,000 minutes and an above-average usage rate this past season, Henderson ranked 29th in turnover rate, according to Stathead, ahead of only Russell Westbrook.
Sacramento Kings: 120.9
In more than 1,000 possessions together this past season the Kings’ new big three of Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine was outscored because of a defense that allowed a whopping 120.9 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. That ranked in the 11th percentile among all lineups leaguewide. When Malik Monk joined that trio, Sacramento’s defense got even worse, falling to the 3rd percentile with a 124.8 defensive rating.
There was some bad 3-point luck baked into those numbers, but it’s not as if the Kings have a roster full of high-caliber defenders who can boost them back toward respectability in 2025-26. After a brief competitive window, Sacramento is back in limbo, with a talented offense but no way to overcome one of the worst defenses in the league.
San Antonio Spurs: 30.4%
The most important development for San Antonio this season is how Victor Wembanyama returns from the deep vein thrombosis that sidelined him after the All-Star break this past season. If he remains healthy, Wembanyama could make first-team All-NBA and win Defensive Player of the Year in his third season.
But the second-most important development is how the Spurs’ contingent of talented guards meshes – and if they provide enough spacing around Wembanyama to make sense in the modern NBA. As a group, De’Aaron Fox, Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and No. 2 draft pick Dylan Harper made just 30.4% of their 3-point attempts this past season (counting Harper’s stats from college). Fox made 31% this past season and has a career 33% mark. Castle made 28.5% as a rookie and 26.7% in his lone college season. Harper made 33.3% in college.
San Antonio has a long runway to build around Wembanyama, but with the 27-year-old Fox now signed to a large extension, the Spurs might have some tough personnel decisions in the years to come if that trio continues to struggle to space the floor.
Toronto Raptors: $1.1 million
The Raptors are expensive: They project to finish $1.1 million above the first apron, according to Spotrac, which makes them one of just six apron teams. The Raptors are also unusual: The other five apron teams have made at least the conference finals or won the No. 1 seed in the past two seasons, while Toronto hasn’t even made the playoffs in three seasons.
In other words, teams in this financial range are comfortable incurring the various apron penalties because they’re attempting to maximize a win-now window. The Raptors, however, have assembled one of the priciest rosters in the league (Brandon Ingram for $40 million per year! Immanuel Quickley for $32.5 million!) despite no indication that they’re close to contention, or that their well-remunerated starting lineup can play together. That investment gives the Raptors sneaky upside, especially in the weak Eastern Conference, but also an abundance of downside if the pieces don’t come together quickly.
Utah Jazz: 23
Three years into their rebuild, the Jazz are still getting younger. Out of 11 Utah players who reached 800 minutes this past season, only four were older than 23 years old – and they dumped three of them (Collin Sexton, John Collins and Jordan Clarkson) in the offseason. Only Lauri Markkanen, now 28 years old, remains from Utah’s small veteran contingent.
While it remains to be seen how much the likes of Jusuf Nurkic, Georges Niang, Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson play for Utah this season, after they arrived in offseason trades, it seems more likely that Utah will give even more playing time to youngsters in 2025-26. Two new first-round picks arrived, and former lottery pick Taylor Hendricks, now 21 years old, needs more playing time after surgery on his leg and ankle limited him to just three games this past season.
Washington Wizards: 64
The Washington Wizards have lost 64 or more games in a season just twice. The first was in 2023-24, when they went 15-67; the second was in 2024-25, when they went 18-64 (with a worse point differential). Given how much the Wizards will rely on youth this season, there’s no reason to expect much more success in year three of the rebuild, even after the worst two seasons in franchise history.
By Zach Kram | ESPN, via ESPN