By Mateo Mayorga | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-08-07 06:27:40
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
马刺队连续两个赛季有球员荣膺年度最佳新秀的纪录，或许将在2025-26赛季终结，但现在就将任何一名球员排除在外都为时尚早。他们可能会打出远超预期的表现，而且一个残酷的现实是，伤病时有发生，这足以改变球员的生涯轨迹和奖项的争夺格局。
FanDuel体育博彩将迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 的年度最佳新秀赔率定为+1000，位列第三。DraftKings将其赔率设为+900，位居第二，而Caesars则将其排在第四，赔率为+1000。考虑到哈珀预计将担任球队关键的替补角色，而独行侠的状元秀库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg) 看起来是一位能够改变比赛格局且很可能直接首发的猛将，这样的赔率是相当合理的。
但如果不打首发，哈珀需要做些什么才能成为一名有力的竞争者呢？别忘了，拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball)（31次首发）和马尔科姆·布罗格登 (Malcolm Brogdon)（28次首发）是唯二在赛季首发场次不足一半的情况下赢得年度最佳新秀的球员。后者之所以能获奖，是因为乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 在出战第31场比赛后左膝受伤，导致赛季报销。
过去25位年度最佳新秀的场均出场时间为33.6分钟。在这期间，仅有斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)（26.7分钟）、维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama)（29.7分钟）、鲍尔（28.8分钟）、布罗格登（26.4分钟）和迈克·米勒 (Mike Miller)（29.1分钟）这几位获奖者的场均出场时间低于30分钟。
从历史上看，得分是评判获奖者的首要标准。自1947-48赛季以来，在所有获奖者中，只有14位在获奖赛季的场均得分低于15分。卡斯尔是这14人中的最后一位，当文班亚马（血凝块）和德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)（左手小指手术）相继赛季报销后，他抓住了首发的机会。此外，从3月14日到赛季最后一天，卡斯尔的场均出场时间达到了30.8分钟，而从赛季揭幕战到3月12日，他的场均出场时间仅为25.5分钟。
今年的竞争更加激烈，哈珀虽然是一位优秀的潜力股，但并非划时代的天才。他需要将场均出场时间稳定在30分钟左右，并在福克斯下场休息时，确保球队的进攻火力不会断档。影响他候选资格的一大关键因素，将是他被安排在何种阵容中出战。如果能获得大量与文班亚马共同在场并担任主要持球人的时间，他的任务会轻松许多，同时也将拥有一位绝佳的挡拆搭档。在这种情况下，他毫无疑问能轻松送出场均4次助攻，因为给这位大个子喂球就像给一名随时处于空位的外接手传球一样简单。
另一项必备技能是以高于平均水准的命中率投进三分球。他投得越准，防守者就越会贴身紧逼，这能让他利用自己的机动性完成突破。尽管在罗格斯大学期间的三分效率低于平均水平，但哈珀的出手姿势很标准，在对手采取沉退防守时，不应给他留出投篮空间。与卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) 搭档可能会帮助他提升这方面的表现，因为后者能提供高质量的掩护和进攻篮板。二次进攻是飙中三分的绝佳时机之一，而科内特在2024-25赛季所有出场至少55场的替补球员中，进攻篮板率高居第二。
为了能在竞争中脱颖而出，他需要磨练的另一项技能是在与福克斯并肩作战时出色的无球移动能力。当防守方协防福克斯的持球进攻时，只要他能切入因此产生的空当，得分机会便会随之而来。
最后一点是控球稳定性。由于他效力于一支冉冉升起的球队，他犯错的余地不会太大。不过，他在大学期间表现平平的助攻失误比（1.67）应该会随着时间的推移而改善，因为他身边将拥有更可靠的进攻火力点。
同届的其他潜力新秀也面临着相似的挑战，因为他们预计都不会以首发身份出战。其中包括V.J. 埃奇库姆 (V.J. Edgecombe)，他在费城的机会可能会因恩比德（4月接受膝盖关节镜手术）和保罗·乔治 (Paul George)（休赛期接受膝盖关节镜手术）的健康状况以及填补出场时间的需要而激增；还有为奇才队效力的另一位天生得分手特雷·约翰逊 (Tre Johnson)；以及康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)，他将在黄蜂队作为一名仍在成长的全能侧翼，在替补席上获得大量球权。
考虑到哈珀的天赋，我们有理由相信他能在最佳新秀阵容中占据一席之地。
点击查看原文：What it will take for Dylan Harper to win Rookie of the Year
What it will take for Dylan Harper to win Rookie of the Year
The Spurs’ two-season streak of Rookie of the Year winners could end in 2025-26, but it’s unwise to disregard a player in the summer. They could show up better than advertised, and a sad reality is that injuries happen, altering paths and award races.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Dylan Harper at the third-highest odds for the Rookie of the Year crown at +1,000. DraftKings has him second at +900, and Caesars has him fourth at +1,000. These are fair odds considering Harper will presumably be a pivotal bench piece, and the Mavericks’ top overall pick, Cooper Flagg, looks like a game-changing stud who will probably start.
But what could Harper do to be a serious challenger without starting? Don’t forget, LaMelo Ball (31) and Malcolm Brogdon (28) are the only two ROTY winners to record starts in less than half the season. The latter won because Joel Embiid hurt his left knee, missing the rest of the season after his 31st game.
The last 25 Rookie of the Year winners have averaged 33.6 minutes per game. The only ones in that span to win playing below 30 minutes were Stephon Castle (26.7), Victor Wembanyama (29.7), Ball (28.8), Brogdon (26.4) and Mike Miller (29.1).
Historically, scoring is the top measuring stick for determining a winner. Of all those who have earned it, only 14 since 1947-48 got it, averaging below 15 points per game. Castle was the last of the 14, and he took advantage of the opportunity to start when Wembanyama (blood clot) then Fox (left pinkie surgery) were ruled out for the season. Additionally, Castle averaged 30.8 minutes per game from March 14 until the last night of the year, but recorded 25.5 minutes per game from the season opener until March 12.
The competition is stiffer this year, and Harper is a great prospect but not a generational talent. He would need to average around a minimum of 30 minutes per game and not let the offense fall apart when De’Aaron Fox rests. One of the big factors that will shape his candidacy is the lineups he’s used in. Significant playing time as lead with Victor Wembanyama on the court would make his job much easier and give him a great pick-and-roll partner. In this scenario, there is no doubt he could easily have four assists per game, feeding the big man because he’s like a wide receiver, who is always open.
Another thing needed is hitting 3-pointers at an above-average clip. The more he does, the closer he will be played, allowing him to use his maneuverability to get by on a drive. Despite a below-average 3-point efficiency at Rutgers, Harper has good form on his release and shouldn’t be dared with space in drop coverage. Playing next to Luke Kornet could help him elevate in this area because of the good screening and offensive rebounding. One of the best times to pop a three is on a second look, and Kornet, was second in offensive rebounding percentage for all backup players in 2024-25 who played a minimum of 55 games.
The other skill that would need to be sharp for him to be in the race is moving off the ball well when playing next to Fox. Points will be there for him if he cuts into the space given to him when the defense helps on Fox’s dribble.
The last would be ball security. Since he plays for an up-and-coming team, he won’t have as much leeway to make mistakes. Yet, his below-par assist-to-turnover numbers (1.67) at school should improve with time, being next to dependable weapons.
The other early prospects of the field are also affected significantly because they are not expected to start. They include V.J. Edgecombe, whose opportunity could skyrocket, depending on Embiid (arthroscopic knee surgery in April) and Paul George’s (offseason arthroscopic knee surgery) health in Philadelphia and a need to fill minutes; Tre Johnson, another natural scorer for the Wizards; and Kon Knueppel, who will have plenty of usage off the bench in Charlotte as a developing do-it-all wing.
Accounting for Harper’s talent, it’s hard not to see him make one of the spots on the All-Rookie team.
By Mateo Mayorga, via Pounding The Rock