By Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-08-04 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
三年前，当ESPN探讨为何全部30支NBA球队都为2022-23赛季“all-in”时，我们花了好些篇幅才首次提及俄克拉荷马城雷霆队。
当时，雷霆队只有一名基石球员——尚未首次入选全明星的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)——并且刚刚在2022年选秀大会上选中了切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren)（榜眼）和杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)（12号秀）。尽管俄克拉荷马城当时年轻的天赋和选秀资产已初现潜力，但恐怕很难预见到这支球队能攀升至上赛季所达到的高度——常规赛豪取68胜，随后在季后赛中一路高歌猛进，成为NBA历史上第二年轻的总冠军队伍。
然而，这清晰地提醒我们，并非每支球队都能时刻以夺冠为目标。
即便在一个由实力均衡所定义的时代——联盟已连续七个赛季诞生不同的总冠军，创下历史记录——每年也只有少数几支球队真正具备争冠实力。因此，有些球队可能会像三年前的雷霆队那样，全力投入于培养年轻核心；或者像金州勇士队或达拉斯独行侠队那样，全力投入于“双线并轨”的建队策略。
在梳理了每支球队的阵容、薪金空间预测和选秀权状况后，我们将在2025-26赛季来临之际，为您剖析全部30支球队的“all-in”目标。我们将其划分为八个档位，这也将定义各支球队的成败标准。
全力冲刺…在争冠窗口关闭前赢下总冠军
丹佛掘金
密尔沃基雄鹿
明尼苏达森林狼
当你拥有这个星球上最强的球员时，你的球队就必须“all-in”于当下。对掘金队而言，这不仅是因为他们拥有三届MVP得主尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokic)。首先，这位超级巨星中锋可能在两年后成为自由球员。这无疑带来了一种紧迫感，即便外界普遍预期约基奇会在明年夏天提前续约。除此之外，丹佛为了组建现有阵容，几乎交易了未来所有的选秀资产，包括送出其2032年的首轮签，以交易迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.) 换来卡梅伦·约翰逊 (Cameron Johnson)。
可以说，联盟中没有哪支球队比雄鹿队更“活在当下”了。在总经理琼·霍斯特 (Jon Horst) 的领导下，他们为取悦超级巨星扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 而屡次挥出大手笔。五年前，他们的操作是得到朱·霍勒迪 (Jrue Holiday)。两年前，他们又以霍勒迪为筹码的一部分换来了达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard)。而今年夏天，他们裁掉并使用延伸条款支付了利拉德合同中剩余的两年超过1.1亿美元的薪水，从而使密尔沃基能够签下中锋迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner)。这是球队为了在东部竞争中保持领先，并确保阿德托昆博长期留守密尔沃基的最新尝试。
与此同时，明尼苏达是其中最难归类的球队之一。球队的招牌球员安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards) 将再次入选我们的25岁以下25大球员榜单，这似乎并不完全是在高喊“立即争冠”。但森林狼已经交易了大部分选秀资产来维持现有阵容，球队薪资正逼近工资帽的第二土豪线，并且必须为迈克·康利 (Mike Conley) 和鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert) 寻找最终的替代者——正是这两位的到来，帮助明尼苏达连续两年闯入西部决赛。
全力冲刺…开启一段漫长的争冠窗口期
克利夫兰骑士
休斯顿火箭
纽约尼克斯
俄克拉荷马城雷霆
奥兰多魔术
由于没有首发球员年过三十，骑士队理应能作为竞争者保持长久的实力——前提是他们能妥善管理昂贵的阵容。全明星球员多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell) 和埃文·莫布里 (Evan Mobley) 的续约合同将从下赛季开始生效，这将把克利夫兰推入第二土豪线区间，意味着他们只有两年的窗口期来做出艰难决策，否则可能会失去一些核心球员。
在交易得到凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 后，火箭队希望追随雷霆队的脚步。在首轮出局后，杜兰特的加盟为休斯顿打开了争冠窗口。尽管这位38岁的未来名人堂成员并不代表“漫长的窗口期”，但火箭队可以围绕更年轻的球星阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun) 和阿门·汤普森 (Amen Thompson) 进行转型，并手握一批潜力巨大的未来选秀权。继上赛季与杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson) 签下长约后，尼克斯上个月又以一份四年1.5亿美元的合同锁定了米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)。目前，纽约阵中已有五名球员——布里奇斯、布伦森、卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns)、OG·阿奴诺比 (OG Anunoby) 和约什·哈特 (Josh Hart)——的合同至少延续到2028年。这正是球队管理层在过去18个月里为这套阵容设想的蓝图，理论上能为球队带来长远的发展前景。
赢得总冠军的同时，还手握多达六个额外的未来首轮签，这在历史上前所未有，更不用说那些可能让雷霆队本该靠后的选秀顺位大幅提升的互换权了。既然俄克拉荷马城已经续约了MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大，以及全明星杰伦·威廉姆斯和基石球员切特·霍姆格伦，奢侈税将是一个挑战。但在现代NBA历史中，雷霆队在卫冕征途上的“all-in”程度可能比任何球队都要低。
奥兰多面临的问题是，引进德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 是否能将魔术队提升至竞争者行列。上赛季，部分由于首发球员保罗·班凯罗 (Paolo Banchero)、杰伦·萨格斯 (Jalen Suggs) 和弗朗茨·瓦格纳 (Franz Wagner) 的伤病，魔术队仅取得41胜41负的战绩。而他们的薪资总额正迅速攀升，当班凯罗的续约合同在2026-27赛季生效时，这四名球员的年薪都将至少达到3240万美元。不过，27岁的贝恩已是奥兰多核心阵容中唯一超过24岁的球员。
全力冲刺…围绕年轻核心建队
这些球队都拥有当下的天赋，同时也拥有他们希望未来能成长为重要贡献者的球员，和/或高价值的选秀权，他们希望这些资产能进一步强化各自的核心阵容。
亚特兰大老鹰
底特律活塞
孟菲斯灰熊
波特兰开拓者
圣安东尼奥马刺
今年夏天，老鹰队的未来获得了巨大提振。他们在选秀夜与新奥尔良鹈鹕队的交易中，获得了一个预计明年将进入前十顺位的选秀权，这为他们本已包括去年状元秀扎卡里·里萨谢 (Zaccharie Risacher)、杰伦·约翰逊 (Jalen Johnson) 和上赛季进步最快球员戴森·丹尼尔斯 (Dyson Daniels) 在内的核心阵容锦上添花。
底特律见证了2021年的状元秀凯德·坎宁安 (Cade Cunningham) 在上赛季取得了巨大进步，球队也赢得了自2008年以来的首场季后赛。现在的目标是，在坎宁安和他身边由杰登·艾维 (Jaden Ivey)、奥萨尔·汤普森 (Ausar Thompson) 和杰伦·杜伦 (Jalen Duren) 组成的年轻核心阵容所取得的成功基础上再接再厉。
另一方面，灰熊队通过将贝恩交易至奥兰多换取一系列选秀权，遭遇了短期的挫折——但其中一个，很可能是菲尼克斯太阳队2026年的首轮签，具有很高的潜力。他们希望这个选秀权，加上今年的乐透秀塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward) 以及球队基石贾·莫兰特 (Ja Morant) 和小贾伦·杰克逊 (Jaren Jackson Jr.)，能让这支球队拥有长远的发展前景。
开拓者队在今年夏天得到了老将朱·霍勒迪和达米安·利拉德后，如今拥有了一大批年轻才俊——德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija)、谢登·夏普 (Shaedon Sharpe)、斯库特·亨德森 (Scoot Henderson)、多诺万·克林根 (Donovan Clingan) 和杨瀚森 (Yang Hansen) 均未满25岁——他们希望与这些球员共同成长。不过，随着这些天赋球员逐渐兑现潜力，球队阵容的最终形态仍不明朗。
当然，自从在2023年选秀抽签大会上赢得状元签并选中维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 以来，马刺队就一直是这个档位的核心。从那时起，马刺队便倚重这位大个子来开启圣安东尼奥卓越的新时代。在选中 *文班亚马 *后的两年多时间里，球队通过选秀得到了斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 和迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，并通过交易引进了德阿龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox)，进一步充实了阵容。
全力冲刺…双线并轨
金州勇士
洛杉矶快船
洛杉矶湖人
迈阿密热火
达拉斯独行侠
费城76人
这个档位的球队采取了多种不同的策略。勇士队在引进了即将在九月年满36岁的吉米·巴特勒三世 (Jimmy Butler III)，与37岁的斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry) 和35岁的德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green) 组成阵容后，最接近于在本赛季全力争冠。但金州在动用未来选秀权方面一直很谨慎，并且只有摩西·穆迪 (Moses Moody) 一名球员在2027-28赛季有保障合同，这给了球队转型的机会。
薪金空间的灵活性显然是洛杉矶两支球队以及迈阿密热火的计划，这三支球队在签订长期合同方面都非常谨慎。他们都有现实的路径在明年夏天获得顶薪级别的薪金空间，但更有可能在2027年清理账目，届时多届MVP得主扬尼斯·阿德托昆博和尼古拉·约基奇若不提前续约，就可能成为完全自由球员。
但洛杉矶两支球队在构建2026-27赛季阵容的方式上有所不同。快船队全力押宝老将，引进了38岁的布鲁克·洛佩斯 (Brook Lopez) 和40岁的克里斯·保罗 (Chris Paul) 来加深板凳。相比之下，湖人队则希望通过签下更年轻的球员，如27岁的德安德烈·艾顿 (Deandre Ayton) 和23岁的杰克·拉拉维亚 (Jake LaRavia)，来寻找长期的贡献者。
76人队和独行侠队的阵容时间线则更为清晰。对费城而言，问题在于乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid) 和保罗·乔治 (Paul George) 能否保持足够长的健康，以便得到年轻后卫泰瑞斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)、贾里德·麦凯恩 (Jared McCain) 和三号秀VJ·埃奇库姆 (VJ Edgecombe) 的支持。在达拉斯，一位通常会被年轻队友围绕的状元秀（库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)），却加入了一支旨在配合安东尼·戴维斯 (Anthony Davis) 和凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving) 的时间线去赢得总冠军的球队。
全力冲刺…度过一个过渡年
波士顿凯尔特人
印第安纳步行者
如果不是因为杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 和泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 的跟腱撕裂，这两支球队本应轻松地进入前两个档位。然而，这两位全NBA级别球星的伤病——他们几乎注定将因伤缺席整个2025-26赛季——使得两队都将目光投向了未来。特纳离开印第安纳，以及霍勒迪和克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 离开波士顿，使得这两支球队即便在实力较弱的东部，也更有可能进入附加赛，而非冲击前四的种子席位。
全力冲刺…‘着眼于选秀顺位’
布鲁克林篮网
夏洛特黄蜂
犹他爵士
华盛顿奇才
这四支球队是上赛季NBA战绩排名倒数六位的球队，并且他们在ESPN BET上的2025-26赛季胜场数预测（大小盘）也是最低的四支。
在这个群体中，黄蜂队似乎最有可能在本赛季具备竞争力。他们在首发控卫拉梅洛·鲍尔 (LaMelo Ball) 身后，引进了新援斯潘塞·丁威迪 (Spencer Dinwiddie) 和科林·塞克斯顿 (Collin Sexton)，增加了组织的深度。作为这批球队中唯一的四号秀，夏洛特的康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel) 在被评为黄蜂队NBA夏季联赛夺冠赛的MVP后，似乎也是这些乐透秀中最有能力在新秀赛季提供帮助的球员。
尽管如此，所有这些球队距离竞争季后赛席位可能都至少还有一个赛季的距离，他们更希望在此之前再添一个高顺位新秀。
全力冲刺…毫无方向？
芝加哥公牛
新奥尔良鹈鹕
萨克拉门托国王
多伦多猛龙
很难看清这四支球队的前进方向。
在芝加哥，公牛队在休赛期续约了首席管理层高管阿尔图拉斯·卡尼什奥瓦斯 (Arturas Karnisovas) 和马克·埃弗斯利 (Marc Eversley)，以及主教练比利·多诺万 (Billy Donovan)。但在过去八个赛季里，他们只进过一次季后赛，仅赢过一场季后赛比赛，并且在过去一年里，屡次未能通过交易老将（阿历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso)、德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan) 和扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine)）换来有价值的选秀权。芝加哥隧道尽头的一线光明是：明年夏天充足的薪金空间。
自去年夏天以来，鹈鹕队：
- 交易来了德章泰·穆雷 (Dejounte Murray)，后者随后跟腱撕裂
- 送走布兰登·英格拉姆 (Brandon Ingram) 以换取未来的选秀资产
- 交易了今年的23号签，外加一个明年的无保护首轮签，向上交易到13号位，在六月选中了德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen)
最终的结果是，如果一切顺利，这支球队或许能打进附加赛。而如果事与愿违，在预计将是选秀大年的2026年，老鹰队很可能得到一个前五顺位的选秀权。
与此同时，萨克拉门托拼凑出了一套由一些实力不俗的老将组成的阵容——德罗赞、拉文、多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯 (Domantas Sabonis)、马利克·蒙克 (Malik Monk) 和丹尼斯·施罗德 (Dennis Schroder)——但他们中无人能提供长期的上升空间，也无法在残酷的西部开辟出一条通往季后赛竞争的道路。
多伦多则是萨克拉门托的东部版本，他们送走了猛龙队2019年夺冠阵容的最后几名成员——弗雷德·范弗利特 (Fred VanVleet)、OG·阿奴诺比和帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)——并基本上将他们变成了英格拉姆、伊曼纽尔·奎克利 (Immanuel Quickley) 和RJ·巴雷特 (RJ Barrett)，这使得猛龙队阵容薪资达到了奢侈税线，但在东部可能也只是附加赛级别的球队。
全力冲刺…2024年
菲尼克斯太阳
太阳队是一个反面教材，展示了当“all-in”策略失败后会发生什么。如果这份分档名单是基于2023-24赛季初的情况，那么在将布拉德利·比尔 (Bradley Beal) 加入到凯文·杜兰特和德文·布克 (Devin Booker) 的核心阵容后，太阳队显然是全力冲冠的。菲尼克斯拥有联盟中最昂贵的阵容之一，并且无法控制自己的任何一个首轮签，他们为了在交易截止日进行补强，已经重新交换了好几个选秀权。
比尔-杜兰特时代不仅没有带来总冠军，太阳队甚至连一场季后赛都没赢，然后于上个月与比尔达成了买断协议。菲尼克斯如今已脱离了第二土豪线，但在杜兰特交易后，这支后卫扎堆的阵容没有明确的时间线。太阳队没有交易他们2032年的首轮签，但这仅仅是因为他们不能——该选秀权因触发土豪线规则而被冻结。而且，由于布克和比尔的薪水都将计入球队账本直至2030年，菲尼克斯也没有获得可观薪金空间的途径。
点击查看原文：NBA all-in tiers - What all 30 teams are chasing in 2025-26
NBA all-in tiers - What all 30 teams are chasing in 2025-26
Three years ago, when ESPN examined why all 30 NBA teams were all-in for the 2022-23 season, it took a while to reach the first mention of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
At the time, OKC had one cornerstone player – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had yet to make his first All-Star Game – and had just picked Chet Holmgren (No. 2) and Jalen Williams (No. 12) in the 2022 draft. Even though Oklahoma City’s young talent and draft capital showed promise then, it would’ve been difficult to forecast the franchise ascending to the level it reached this past season – 68 regular-season wins before rolling through the playoffs and becoming the second-youngest championship team in NBA history.
And, yet, it’s a clear reminder that every team can’t always be chasing a title.
Even in an era defined by parity – a different champion has been crowned in a league-record seven consecutive seasons – only a handful of teams are truly championship-quality every year. As a result, teams might be all-in on developing a young core like the Thunder was three seasons ago, or all-in on navigating two timelines like the Golden State Warriors or Dallas Mavericks.
Here’s our take on what all-in looks like for all 30 teams, after combing through each team’s roster, salary cap projections and draft pick obligations. That led us to eight tiers as the 2025-26 season approaches, which will define each team’s relative success or failure.
All-in on … winning a championship before the window closes
Denver Nuggets
Milwaukee Bucks
Minnesota Timberwolves
When you have the best player on the planet, your team is all-in on winning right now. In the case of the Nuggets, that’s true for reasons beyond simply employing three-time MVP Nikola Jokic. First, the superstar center can be a free agent in two years. That undoubtedly creates a sense of urgency, even though Jokic could easily be expected to extend his deal next summer. Beyond that, Denver has traded virtually all of its future draft capital to put its current roster together, including sending its 2032 first-rounder to swap Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson.
Arguably no team in the league is living more in the present than the Bucks, who under general manager Jon Horst have repeatedly swung for the fences to keep superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo happy. Five years ago, the move was to acquire Jrue Holiday. Two years ago, it was to use Holiday as part of the package to acquire Damian Lillard. And, this summer, it was waiving-and-stretching the two years and over $110 million remaining on Lillard’s contract to allow Milwaukee to sign center Myles Turner in the team’s latest attempt to both keep up with the rest of the East contenders and to keep Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee moving forward.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is one of the trickier teams to classify. Franchise player Anthony Edwards will spend another season on our top 25 players under 25 list, which doesn’t exactly scream “win now.” But the Wolves have traded most of their draft capital to keep this team together, are butting up against the salary cap’s second apron and must figure out eventual replacements for both Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, whose arrivals have helped lift Minnesota to back-to-back appearances in the Western Conference finals.
All-in on … an extended championship window
Cleveland Cavaliers
Houston Rockets
New York Knicks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic
With no starters in their 30s, the Cavaliers should have staying power as contenders – if they can manage an expensive roster. Extensions for All-Stars Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley that kick in this coming season will push Cleveland into the second apron, meaning a two-year window before more difficult decisions that might cost the Cavaliers some of their core players.
After dealing for Kevin Durant, the Rockets hope to follow in Oklahoma City’s footsteps. Adding Durant opens Houston’s championship window after a first-round loss, and although the 38-year-old future Hall of Famer doesn’t scream “extended window,” the Rockets can pivot around younger stars Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson using a high-upside cache of future picks. The Knicks locked in Mikal Bridges on a four-year, $150 million extension last month after getting Jalen Brunson inked to his own long-term deal last season. New York now has five players – Bridges, Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart – under contract through at least 2028. That’s the vision the franchise had for this group over the past 18 months to, in theory, give the team a long runway.
There’s no precedent for winning a championship and having up to six extra first-round picks coming, not to mention swaps that could dramatically improve Thunder picks likely to fall late in the round. Now that Oklahoma City has extended MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, plus All-Star Jalen Williams and cornerstone Chet Holmgren, the luxury tax will be a challenge. But the Thunder might be less all-in than any team trying to repeat in modern NBA history.
The question with Orlando is whether adding Desmond Bane vaults the Magic into the contender ranks. In part due to injuries to starters Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, the Magic went 41-41 last season. And they’re payroll is getting expensive quickly, with all four players set to make at least $32.4 million in 2026-27 when Banchero’s extension kicks in. But Bane (27) is Orlando’s only core player over 24.
All-in on … building around young cores
All of these teams have both current talent along with players they hope will grow into significant contributors down the line and/or high-value draft picks that they’ll hope will only enhance their respective cores moving forward.
Atlanta Hawks
Detroit Pistons
Memphis Grizzlies
Portland Trail Blazers
San Antonio Spurs
The Hawks got a huge boost to their future this summer when their draft night trade with the New Orleans Pelicans landed them a pick projected to land inside the top 10 in next year’s draft, only adding to a core that includes last year’s No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels, last season’s most improved player.
Detroit saw Cade Cunningham, the 2021 No. 1 pick, take a massive step forward last season as the franchise won a playoff game for the first time since 2008. Now, the goal is to build on that success for Cunningham and a young core around him featuring Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren.
The Grizzlies, on the other hand, suffered a short-term setback by unloading Bane to Orlando for a collection of picks – but one of them, probably Phoenix’s 2026 first-rounder, has a lot of upside. The hope is that pick, plus this year’s lottery selection, Cedric Coward, and franchise cornerstones Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., can allow this team to have a long runway.
The Trail Blazers now have a large collection of young talent – Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan and Yang Hansen are all under 25 – that they’re hoping to grow with after acquiring veterans Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard this summer. It does remain unclear what shape the roster will take as that talent sorts itself out.
The Spurs, of course, have been at the heart of this category since the 2023 draft lottery when they won the right to select Victor Wembanyama. Since then, the Spurs have leaned on the big man to usher in a new era of excellence in San Antonio. The franchise has added to that group by drafting Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and landing De’Aaron Fox via trade in the two-plus years since drafting Wembanyama.
All-in on … two timelines
Golden State Warriors
LA Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Miami Heat
Dallas Mavericks
Philadelphia 76ers
There are multiple different approaches within this group. The Warriors are closest to all-in on a championship this season after adding Jimmy Butler III (36 in September) to a roster with Stephen Curry (37) and Draymond Green (35). But Golden State has been judicious with future draft picks and has only one player (Moses Moody) with guaranteed money for 2027-28, giving the team the opportunity to pivot.
Cap flexibility is clearly the plan for the two L.A. teams plus Miami, all of which have been careful in handing out long-term contracts. All three have realistic paths to max-level cap space next summer but are more likely to clear the books in 2027, when multiyear MVPs Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic could become unrestricted free agents barring extensions.
But there’s a difference in how each L.A. team is building its 2026-27 roster. The Clippers are all-in on veterans, having added 38-year-old Brook Lopez and 40-year-old Chris Paul to a deep bench. The Lakers, by contrast, are hoping to find long-term contributors by signing younger players in Deandre Ayton (27) and Jake LaRavia (23).
The 76ers and Mavericks have clearer timelines within their rosters. For Philadelphia, the question is whether Joel Embiid and Paul George can stay healthy long enough to be supported by younger guards Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and No. 3 pick VJ Edgecombe. In Dallas, a No. 1 pick (Cooper Flagg) who would ordinarily be surrounded by young teammates instead joined a roster aiming to win a championship on the timeline of Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving.
All-in on … a gap year
Boston Celtics
Indiana Pacers
If not for Achilles tears for Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, these two teams easily would’ve been in the first two groups on this list. Instead, those injuries to their All-NBA stars – both of whom are all but certain to watch the entire 2025-26 seasons from the sideline as a result – have both teams focused on the future. The departure of Turner from Indiana and Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis from Boston has left both teams more likely to land in the play-in than to make a push for top-four seeding, even in the weaker Eastern Conference.
All-in on … ‘draft positioning’
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
Utah Jazz
Washington Wizards
These were four of the NBA’s bottom six teams in the standings last season, and they have the four lowest over/under totals for the 2025-26 season at ESPN BET.
Of this group, the Hornets seem most likely to be competitive this season after adding more playmaking depth behind starting point guard LaMelo Ball with newcomers Spencer Dinwiddie and Collin Sexton. As the only top-four pick from this group, Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel also appears most ready to help as a rookie of these lottery picks after being named MVP of the Hornets’ NBA summer league championship game victory.
Still, all of these teams are probably at least a season away from competing for a playoff spot, and they’d love to add another top pick first.
All-in on … nothing?
Chicago Bulls
New Orleans Pelicans
Sacramento Kings
Toronto Raptors
It’s difficult to see which way these four franchises are headed.
In Chicago, the offseason saw the Bulls extend lead front office executives Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Eversley as well as coach Billy Donovan. But they’ve made the playoffs once and have won a single playoff game over the past eight seasons, and have repeatedly failed to extract draft pick value out of trades for veterans (Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine) in the past year. One light at the end of the tunnel in Chicago: plenty of cap space next summer.
Since last summer, the Pelicans have:
- traded for Dejounte Murray, who subsequently tore his Achilles
- moved on from Brandon Ingram for future draft capital
- traded the No. 23 pick in this year’s draft, plus an unprotected pick next year, to move up to No. 13 to draft Derik Queen in June
The end result is a team that could be in the play-in tournament if everything breaks right. And, if it doesn’t, the Hawks could easily be in line for a top-five pick in what’s expected to be a loaded 2026 draft.
Sacramento, meanwhile, has cobbled together a roster featuring some solid veterans – DeRozan, LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk and Dennis Schroder – but none offer long-term upside or a path to playoff contention in the brutal West.
Toronto is the Eastern Conference version of Sacramento, having moved on from the final players of the Raptors’ 2019 title-winning team – Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam – and essentially turning them into Ingram, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, giving the Raptors a roster that is in the luxury tax and might not be better than a play-in team in the East.
All-in on … 2024
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are the cautionary tale of what happens when going all-in goes wrong. If these tiers were from the start of the 2023-24 season, the Suns would have clearly been all-in on a title after adding Bradley Beal to a core of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Phoenix boasted one of the league’s most expensive rosters and controlled none of its first-round picks, having re-swapped several with an eye toward deadline upgrades.
Not only did the Beal-Durant era yield no championship, the Suns didn’t win a playoff game and then agreed to a buyout with Beal last month. Phoenix is out of the second apron, but a guard-heavy roster in the wake of the Durant trade has no clear timeline. The Suns haven’t traded their 2032 first-round pick, but only because they can’t – it was frozen due to apron restrictions. And Phoenix has no path to significant cap space with Booker and Beal’s salary both on the books through 2030.
By Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN