[PtR] 预测马刺队本赛季的出场时间分配

[PtR]

By SpursfanSteve | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-07-24 22:43:41

由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。

马刺队阵容深度很深，但出场时间却非常有限。

随着夏季联赛的结束，马刺队的主力阵容也基本确定，我认为现在是（粗略地）预测各个位置出场时间分配的最好时机。预测出场时间并建立轮换阵容是一项艰巨的任务，尤其是在阵容深度如此之深的情况下，我猜测球队会有一些实验性的尝试。

需要说明的是，我并不太关心传统位置与新术语的争论，或者“后卫”与“侧翼”之间是否存在差异等问题。这也不是一份首发/替补/三阵容的“深度图”。一些球员可以在多个位置之间互换，并可能根据具体情况改变角色。此外，谁能首发可能更多是出于阵容适配和战术体系的考虑，而非其整体重要性，而且首发球员的出场时间仍可能不如某些替补球员。

话虽如此，场上五个位置总共有240分钟的出场时间可供分配，而这些时间消失得异常迅速。马刺队拥有一批天赋异禀的年轻球员，为他们所有人找到合适的出场时间将是一个巨大的挑战。除了维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 之外，所有人都应该觉得自己正在为出场时间而竞争，因为他们确实如此——即使是像凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)、德文·瓦塞尔 (Devin Vassell) 和杰里米·索汉 (Jeremy Sochan) 这样的经验丰富的老将，如果其他球员有所进步或表现出更好的适配性，也同样面临竞争。（就我个人而言，如果他们三人都能长期留在球队，我会感到非常震惊；如果能留下其中两人，我也会略感惊讶。）

考虑到以上因素，以下是我对这240分钟出场时间如何在球员之间分配的看法，其中一些位置因特定换人导致球员改变位置而存在重叠：

• PG（控球后卫） ：德阿隆·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) (33) — 斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) (10) — 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) (5)
• SG（得分后卫） ：斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (20) — 迪伦·哈珀 (18) — 德文·瓦塞尔 (10)
• SF（小前锋） ：德文·瓦塞尔 (18) — 凯尔登·约翰逊 (18) — 朱利安·尚帕涅 (Julian Champagnie) (12)
• PF（大前锋） ：哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes) (25) — 杰里米·索汉 (20) — 维克托·文班亚马 (3)
• C（中锋） ：维克托·文班亚马 (30) — 卢克·科内特 (Luke Kornet) (18)

最后，在没有垃圾时间或球队完全健康的胶着比赛中，我认为以下球员将处于轮换阵容之外：

• 卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant)
• 凯利·奥利尼克 (Kelly Olynyk)（大部分时间）
• 乔丹·麦克劳克林 (Jordan McLaughlin)
• 林迪·沃特斯三世 (Lindy Waters III)
• 大卫·琼斯-加西亚 (David Jones-Garcia)（双向合同）

以下是几个值得关注的关键竞争点：

1. 福克斯、卡斯尔和哈珀之间的重叠 — 这是媒体报道最多的竞争点，所以我从它开始说，但我认为这有点言过其实。哈珀与卡斯尔有很多共同点，足以立即推动他竞争替补控球后卫和首发得分后卫的出场时间。福克斯是队内最经验证的进攻发起者，但卡斯尔作为组织者的飞跃，或哈珀迅速将他的比赛风格过渡到NBA水平，这两种可能性都相当大。卡斯尔和哈珀都是身材高大的球员，未来几年可能会继续增加肌肉重量。他们两人都能够在防守端抵挡住体型更大的后卫和体型较小的前锋，所以他们中的任何一个都可以与福克斯一同出场。唯一阻碍他们三人同时出场的是，他们都不是特别出色的空间型球员。希望哈珀大学时期糟糕的投篮表现可以归结为独自扛起一支弱队，被迫出手糟糕的投篮；卡斯尔能取得小幅进步，接近联盟平均水平；福克斯康复的手指能帮助他提高外线投篮。
2. 瓦塞尔与他自己 — 瓦塞尔在小前锋位置和一些替补得分后卫位置上获得早期青睐，但如果他不能保持上赛季后半段的防守表现，或者无法证明他能在不大量控球的情况下影响进攻，他的一些出场时间可能会被其他人夺走（可能是卡斯尔、哈珀或尚帕涅，除非约翰逊或索汉在投篮方面取得飞跃）。
3. 索汉与射手们 — 索汉的定点投篮如果不能提高，可能会导致他失去出场时间。尚帕涅各方面表现都合理出色，但没有一项是精英级别的，他是一个典型的下限高、上限低的角色球员，能提供这支阵容中其他球员很少具备的特质：外线投篮。在其他人能拉开空间之前，他将继续获得出场时间。巴恩斯年龄渐长，如果明年他的防守断崖式下滑，他可能会失去位置，但我认为更稳妥的猜测是，他距离严重下滑还有几年时间。
4. 替补中锋 — 确定替补中锋位置，本质上是进攻与防守的权衡。签下科内特非常划算，而交易得到奥利尼克则是不假思索的决定。我的直觉是，大多数晚上马刺队会选择科内特，因为他防守更好，是挡拆中更好的顺下搭档，而且他的优势很可能会凸显控球后卫们的优势。话虽如此，奥利尼克是一个经验证的价值球员，他能拉开空间，并且擅长做很多细微但重要的事——例如通过提供手递手传球和作为第三组织者来简化年轻后卫的阅读难度——这使他能成为一个有价值的场上存在。
5. 卡特·布莱恩特何时才能突破 — 布莱恩特不具备持球进攻能力来抢走任何后卫/组织者的出场时间，他当然也不会在中锋位置上争夺时间。但如果他的防守能够适应并开始适应NBA三分线，他可能会在赛季进行中开始赢得小前锋/大前锋的出场时间。这不会在赛季初发生，但我认为我们会在一月左右开始看到他的身影。如果约翰逊、索汉或瓦塞尔出现伤病，布莱恩特将是最大的受益者。

最有可能失去出场时间的球员：

我认为约翰逊是最有可能失去出场时间的球员，尽管他深受球迷和队友喜爱，并且是队中效力时间最长的球员。去年他的防守提升和身体改造非常重要，但为了不让哈珀和卡斯尔——他们都更高大、防守更好，体重也相近——抢走他的出场时间（或者把其他多位置球员挤到他的位置），他需要带来一些除了活力和氛围之外能让他脱颖而出的东西。我不确定那会是什么，但外线投篮将是他的最佳选择。

索汉也面临风险，但似乎失去出场时间的可能性略小，因为他更擅长为队友创造机会，而且防守要好得多。尚帕涅也可能随着年轻球员的进步而失去出场时间，尽管他精准的投篮和高于平均水平的防守多样性使他几乎适合任何阵容。

前瞻

目前马刺队阵容深度很深，因此为 roster 上的所有球员找到出场时间将是一个挑战。虽然我认为“控球后卫”的争论被夸大了，但拥有三名位置相似的关键球员将对阵容的其余部分和轮换产生连锁反应，特别是当通常打后卫的球员被推向侧翼位置时。此外，尽管我最初对奥利尼克身披银黑战袍感到非常兴奋，但当我开始尝试为他寻找出场时间时，我的兴奋感减弱了；我只是不相信我们会看到文班亚马打大前锋的很多时间，因为他们将需要巴恩斯和索汉的空间拉开能力和防守多样性。

作为球迷，我们喜欢说“顺手打”或者“根据情况使用这些球员”，但在实践中，这种情况似乎并不常见。进攻和防守都依赖于只有通过反复练习才能建立起来的化学反应，因此，给这种化学反应和彼此的理解发展壮大的机会，就排除了在任何特定夜晚仅仅因为他们投篮不佳或防守轮转失误就随意撤下某人。无论如何，无论轮换最终如何确定，这将是我们很长时间以来最令人兴奋的时刻。

点击查看原文：Predicting who gets minutes for the Spurs this season

Predicting who gets minutes for the Spurs this season

The Spurs have a deep roster, and there’s only so many minutes to go around.

With Summer League over and the Spurs’ main roster pretty much in tact, I figured this was as good of a time as any to (roughly) predict how minutes will shake out across positions. Projecting minutes and establishing a rotation is hard, especially with a roster this deep, and my guess is there will be some experimentation.

As a caveat, I’m not really interested in debating traditional positions vs. new nomenclature or whether there is a difference between “guards” and “wings”, etc. This also isn’t a “depth chart” of starters/second string/third string. Several players are interchangeable between positions and could change roles depending on circumstances. Also, who starts could be because of fit and scheme rather than overall importance and yet still may not get as many minutes as some bench players.

With all the said, there are 240 minutes to divvy up spread across five spots on the floor, and they start to disappear remarkably quickly. The Spurs have a lot of talented young players, and finding decent minutes for all of them is going to be a massive challenge. Everyone except Victor Wembanyama should feel like they are competing for minutes, because they absolutely are — even established veterans like Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan if other players improve or demonstrate better fit. (Personally, I would be utterly shocked if all three of them were on the team long-term and mildly surprised if two of the three were.)

With that in mind, here is how I see those 240 minutes being divided up among the players, with some positional overlap due to players changing position when certain substitutions are made:

• PG: De’Aaron Fox (33) — Stephon Castle (10) — Dylan Harper (5)
• SG: Stephon Castle (20) — Dylan Harper (18) — Devin Vassell (10)
• SF: Devin Vassell (18) — Keldon Johnson (18) — Julian Champagnie (12)
• PF: Harrison Barnes (25) — Jeremy Sochan (20) — Victor Wembanyama (3)
• C: Victor Wembanyama (30) — Luke Kornet (18)

Finally, in tight games where there is no garbage time and/or the team is fully healthy, here are the players I see as just outside of the rotation:

• Carter Bryant
• Kelly Olynyk (mostly)
• Jordan McLaughlin
• Lindy Waters III
• David Jones-Garcia (two-way)

Here are a few key points of competition to watch:

1. Overlap between Fox, Castle and Harper — This is the point of competition getting the most media coverage, so I’m starting with it, but I think it’s overblown. Harper has enough in common with Castle to immediately push him for backup point guard and starting shooting guard minutes. Fox is the most proven creator on the team, but a leap from Castle as a playmaker or Harper quickly translating his game to the NBA level are both decent possibilities. Both Castle and Harper are big dudes who will probably continue to put on muscle weight the next couple of years. They are both capable of holding up defensively against bigger guards and smaller forwards, so either of them can play alongside Fox. The only thing keeping all three of them from playing together is none are particularly inspiring floor spacers. Hopefully, Harper’s poor shooting in college will be written off as carrying a bad team and having to take bad shots, Castle will take a mini-leap and get closer to league average, and Fox’s repaired finger will help improve his outside shot.
2. Vassell vs. himself — Vassell gets an early nod for minutes at SF and some backup SG, but if he doesn’t maintain his defense from the back end of last year or prove he can impact the offense without dominating the ball, some of his his minutes could go to someone else (probably Castle, Harper, or Champagnie, unless Johnson or Sochan make a leap as shooters).
3. Sochan vs. shooters — Sochan not improving his spot-up shooting could lead to him losing minutes. Champagnie, who does everything reasonably well but nothing elite, is a classic high-floor/low-ceiling role player who provides one thing few other players on this roster can: outside shooting. Until someone else can space the floor, he’s going to continue to get minutes. Barnes is aging, and if next year is the year his defense falls off a cliff, maybe he loses his spot, but I think a safer bet is that he’s a couple years away from a serious decline.
4. Backup center — Figuring out the backup center spot was, essentially, a question of offense vs. defense. Signing Kornet was a bargain, and the trade for Olynyk was a no-brainer. My intuition is that most nights, the Spurs will opt for Kornet, because he’s a better defender, roll partner on the pick-and-roll, and his strengths will likely accentuate the strengths of the point guards. That being said, Olynyk is a proven commodity, can stretch the floor, and he does so many little things well — such as simplifying what reads the young guards have to make by serving up dribble hand-offs and being a tertiary playmaker — that he could be a valuable on-court presence.
5. How long until Carter Bryant breaks through — Bryant doesn’t have the off-the-dribble skills to take any of the guards/creators’ minutes, and he certainly won’t be battling for any minutes at center. But if his defense translates and he starts to adjust to the NBA three-point line, he could start earning minutes at SF/PF as the season goes on. It’s not happening at the start of the year, but I do think we’ll start to see it by January. If an injury to Johnson, Sochan, or Vassell happens, Bryant will be the biggest beneficiary.

Players most at risk of losing minutes:

I have Johnson as the player most in danger of losing playing time, even though he is beloved by fans and teammates and is the team’s longest-tenured player. Last year’s defensive improvement and body transformation was important, but to keep Harper and Castle — both taller, better defenders and close to the same weight — from taking his minutes (or from pushing other multi-position players into his position), he’s going to have to bring something beyond energy and vibes that sets him apart. I’m not sure what that will be, but outside shooting would be his best bet.

Sochan is also at risk but seems slightly less likely to lose minutes because he’s a bit better at creating for others and much better defensively. Champagnie could also lose playing time as younger players improve, although his elite shooting and above average defensive versatility makes him a good fit in almost any lineup.

Moving forward

The Spurs are very deep at this point, so it will be a challenge to find minutes for all the players on the roster. While I think the “point guard” debate is overblown, having three key players at similar positions will have downstream effects on the rest of the roster and rotation, especially as players who typically play as guards get push into the wing spots. Also, even though I was initially quite excited for Olynyk to put on the Silver and Black, once I started trying to find minutes for him, my excitement was dampened; I’m just not convinced we will see many minutes with Wemby at PF because they will need the floor spacing and defensive versatility of Barnes and Sochan.

As fans, we love to say “just go with the hot hand” or “play these guys situationally,” but in practice, that doesn’t seem to happen all that often. Both offense and defense rely on chemistry that can only be built through reps, so giving that chemistry and understanding of each other a chance to develop precludes yanking someone on any given night just because they just don’t have their shot or blow a rotation on defense. Regardless, however the rotation shakes out, it’s going to be the most fun we’ve had in a long time.

By SpursfanSteve, via Pounding The Rock