By Eric Fritts | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-07-03 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
在硬工资帽时代，年轻球员可能是球队建设和薪金空间灵活性最重要的工具
从夺冠到仅12个月后，这支冠军球队正在拆解其夺冠阵容。2024年总冠军波士顿凯尔特人队 (Boston Celtics) 交易朱·霍乐迪 (Jrue Holiday) 和克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis)，旨在减轻其奢侈税账单，这正式标志着NBA硬工资帽时代的开启。无论他们是否能卫冕成功，这几乎都是不可避免的。
凯尔特人队的两笔交易，节省了2700万美元的薪资，由于奢侈税惩罚的指数级增长特性，这为他们节省了近2亿美元的奢侈税。这份强硬甚至可以说是激进的劳资协议 (CBA) 的意图已基本实现。王朝级超级球队已成历史，但随之而来的是，那些从优秀到顶尖的球队，其争冠窗口期也变得极其有限。凯尔特人队的情况是两年。
现在，当俄克拉荷马城雷霆队 (Oklahoma City Thunder) 捧起拉里·奥布莱恩杯 (Larry O’Brien Trophy) 时，潜在的常年争冠前景主导着他们的叙事。但为什么雷霆队的争冠窗口期看起来比凯尔特人队的更宽敞一些？他们也受制于同样的CBA和同样的限制，那么是什么让他们比凯尔特人队拥有更多的时间呢？
答案就是年轻球员。
NBA的劳资协议是一份严苛而复杂的文档，只有少数最顶尖、最专业的分析师才能完全理解。简而言之，不作过多深入探讨，合同有几种不同类型。顶薪合同和超级顶薪合同的薪水范围占工资帽的25%到35%，最高一档则保留给那些满足入选最佳阵容 (All-NBA)、MVP或年度最佳防守球员 (Defensive Player of the Year) 资格，并拥有七或八年球龄的球员。
凯尔特人队有两名这样的球员，杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 和杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown)。相反，雷霆队则没有。他们薪水最高的球员，联盟和总决赛MVP谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)，签下了一份占工资帽25%的顶薪合同，在他获得最佳阵容荣誉后，这一比例提高到了30%。他最近的续约合同将在2027年生效后，达到35%的顶薪标准。
与此同时，雷霆队另外两名最好的球员，切特·霍姆格伦 (Chet Holmgren) 和杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams)，都签下了新秀合同。新秀合同由联盟和选秀顺位决定，且薪资上限相对较低。如果一名新秀提前成为明星球员，这份合同很快就会变成一份对球队非常友好的合同。到2026年，威廉姆斯和霍姆格伦的合同将总共占据球队工资帽的13.14%。总而言之，雷霆队的三名优秀球员的总薪资支出将低于其工资帽空间的45%。
回过头看凯尔特人队，他们两名最好的球员就占据了他们近70%的工资帽空间。当然，威廉姆斯和霍姆格伦最终会要求更高的薪水，但即使在新秀合同结束后，他们最高也只能拿到工资帽30%的顶薪。
这仍将是一笔不菲的薪资支出，但正如凯尔特人队的税单所示，每名球员节省的这5%一旦进入奢侈税线，就会产生指数级的巨大差异。任何节省下来的薪资都能为他们的管理层带来更多的灵活性。
为球队引进天赋球员是一项技能，但管理薪金空间来支付这些天赋球员则是另一项技能，如果目标是长期保持竞争力，这几乎是不可能完成的任务。提高效率的唯一希望就是寻找年轻球员，并寄希望于他们能够成功兑现天赋。这对圣安东尼奥马刺队 (San Antonio Spurs) 来说是个好消息。
维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 显然仍在新秀合同期内，在本赛季将占据马刺队工资帽的约8.65%。正如大多数人预测的那样，如果他入选最佳阵容、赢得MVP或年度最佳防守球员，他将有资格获得一份占工资帽30%的顶薪合同。年度最佳新秀斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle)，以及即将加入的新秀迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，自然也都在新秀合同期内。他们两人的薪资加起来将占据工资帽的约15%。
这些年轻球员不仅给了马刺队当下建设球队的选择，也让他们能够继续围绕现有核心球员进行建设。其中一人已经是明星球员，如果哈珀、卡斯尔，或者两人都能和文班亚马一起跻身明星行列，其效果将是双重的。这既包括他们提供的天赋，也包括薪资效率和灵活性。从而为马刺队在围绕他们打造争冠球队时提供更多选择。
这一切都取决于管理层评估天赋球员的能力，以及教练组培养这些球员的能力。在年轻时发现人才对一个球队来说是全方位的胜利，这早已不是秘密。但这并非易事。赢得一个总冠军已经足够困难；赢得多个总冠军则是精英中的精英才能做到，也是我们在这个CBA时代尚未看到的事情。要达到这一步，球队需要迅速找到他们的建队基石。
马刺队对这种影响并不陌生。蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan) 进入联盟时就已是最佳阵容一阵球员，并在他还在新秀合同期的第二个赛季就赢得了总冠军。随后又赢得了四次总冠军。
点击查看原文：Why youth is more important towards building champions than ever before
Why youth is more important towards building champions than ever before
In the hard-cap era, youth might be the most important tool for team building and cap flexibility
In a matter of 12 months removed from a championship, the title-winning team is now dismantling the pieces that got them there. The 2024 champion Celtics’ trading of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, in an effort to mitigate their luxury tax bill, officially marks the beginning of the hard-cap era in the NBA. Regardless of whether they repeated as champions or not, this was nearly unavoidable.
Two trades for Boston, resulting in $27 million in salary savings, saved them nearly $200 million in luxury taxes due to the exponential nature of the tax penalties. The intentions of this assertive, if not outright aggressive, collective bargaining agreement have largely been achieved. Dynastic super teams are a thing of the past, but consequently, good-to-great teams have very limited windows. Boston’s was two years.
Now, as Oklahoma City raises Larry O’Brien, potential perennial contention dominates their narrative. But why does their window for contention appear to be a little more open than Boston’s? They are subject to the same CBA with the same restrictions, so what gives them more time to work with than Boston?
The answer is youth.
The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement is a harsh and brutal document only understood by some of the best, most specialized analysts out there. Basically, without falling down too much of a digression, there are a few different types of contracts. Max contracts and super max contracts range from 25 to 35 percent of the salary cap, with the highest tier being reserved for those meeting the qualifiers of All-NBA, MVP, or Defensive Player of the Year along with seven or eight years of service.
The Celtics have two of these, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Conversely, the Thunder have none. Their highest-paid player, league and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, signed a 25 percent max, which was boosted to 30 percent after his achieving All-NBA honors. His most recent extension will get him to that 35 percent mark once it kicks in in 2027.
Meanwhile, OKC’s other two best players, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, are on rookie-scale contracts. Rookie scale deals are determined by the league and draft position and are capped relatively low. If a rookie turns into a star ahead of schedule, it becomes a team-friendly deal very quickly. Williams and Holmgren’s contracts will make up a collective 13.14 percent of their cap in 2026. All told, that’s three great players for OKC under 45 percent of their cap room.
Looking back at Boston, their two best guys make up nearly 70 percent of their cap room. Williams and Holmgren will of course, eventually demand more compensation, but even after their rookie-scale deals, the most they could potentially earn is the 30 percent max.
It will still be a hefty payroll, but as can be seen with Boston’s tax bill, saving that five percent per player makes an exponential difference once in the luxury tax. And any savings gives their front office that much more flexibility.
Acquiring talent for a team is a skill, but managing the cap space to pay that talent is another and nearly impossible if the goal is longevity. The only hope for efficiency is to find youth and hope they pan out. This is good news for the San Antonio Spurs.
Victor Wembanyama is obviously still on a rookie-scale deal, making up about 8.65 percent of the Spurs’ cap space this upcoming season. Provided he makes All-NBA, wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, as most predict, he will qualify for a 30 percent max. Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, as well as incoming rookie Dylan Harper, are naturally also on rookie scale deals. Their two salaries will be around 15 percent of the cap combined.
This youth gives the Spurs not only options to build right now, but also the ability to continue to build with their guys. One is already a star, if Harper, Castle, or both can join Wembanyama among those ranks, its effect will be twofold. It’s the talent they provide and the payroll efficiency and flexibility. Thus giving the Spurs more options when building a contender around them.
What this all hinges on is the front office’s ability to evaluate talent, and the coaching staff’s ability to develop it. It’s not a secret that finding talent at a young age is an all-around win for an organization. But it isn’t easy. Winning a championship is hard enough; winning multiple is reserved for the elite of the elite, and something we have yet to see in this CBA era. To get there, teams need to find their franchise guys fast.
The Spurs are no stranger to this effect. Tim Duncan entered the league as an All-NBA first team player, and they won a championship in just his sophomore season with him still on a rookie contract. Then went on to win four more.
By Eric Fritts, via Pounding The Rock