By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-06-27 10:46:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
我对周四晚间结束的2025年NBA选秀的球队评分，是您将读到的唯一不以结果论英雄的评分。
在各队做出选择后，超出他们控制范围的因素——甚至可能超出球员控制范围的因素，尤其是健康状况——将决定最终的结果。没有哪支球队，即使是拥有五个首轮选秀权的布鲁克林篮网，能在一年内选中足够多的球员来抵消选秀中的不确定性。
考虑到这一点，我们根据选秀时可用的信息，从价值和契合度两方面来评估每个选择。我主要依据我对新秀基于数据的预测，以及ESPN的乔纳森·吉沃尼 (Jonathan Givony) 和杰里米·伍 (Jeremy Woo) 的分析。
交易也被纳入考量。一般来说，球队为了向上交易选秀权会支付过高代价，过高估计自己比同行更能准确评估新秀的能力。即使按照这些标准，新奥尔良鹈鹕今年从第23顺位交易至第13顺位的操作也显得格外冒险。结果是，鹈鹕获得了所有球队中最低的评分，而亚特兰大老鹰（与新奥尔良完成交易的球队）则并列最高分。
让我们来看看每支球队的评分。
跳转至某支球队：
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS
亚特兰大老鹰：A
首轮： 阿萨·纽厄尔 (Asa Newell)（第23顺位）
在通过鹈鹕队向下交易10个顺位，并获得一个无保护的2026年首轮选秀权（凯尔特人与鹈鹕之间顺位更靠前的那一个）后，老鹰队无论选择谁都几乎无关紧要了。我甚至可能在 不 获得第23顺位选秀权的情况下，直接完成那笔交易。更妙的是，亚特兰大选中了一位在我预测中排名第13的新秀。
时间会证明纽厄尔能否足够快地进入轮换阵容，与新加入的克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯 (Kristaps Porzingis) 形成搭档，但我喜欢这种契合度，因为波尔津吉斯的优势完美弥补了纽厄尔作为锋线/内线摇摆人的不足。
波士顿凯尔特人：C+
首轮： 雨果·冈萨雷斯 (Hugo Gonzalez)（第28顺位）
次轮： 阿马里·威廉姆斯 (Amari Williams)（第46顺位），马克斯·舒尔加 (Max Shulga)（第57顺位）
对于波士顿来说，冈萨雷斯作为一个海外培养型新秀会更有意义，待其发展成熟后再引入。然而，布拉德·史蒂文斯 (Brad Stevens) 表示凯尔特人计划在下赛季就将他带到NBA。
在转播中，冈萨雷斯被比作丹佛掘金队的侧翼球员克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun)。一个关键的区别是：布劳恩虽然不被认为是射手，但在大学时期三分命中率达到38%。冈萨雷斯在皇家马德里 (Real Madrid) 的三分命中率只有27%。
威廉姆斯是一位有趣的新秀，在篮板、护筐和肘区策应方面具有多重优势。但他两分球命中率仅有职业生涯54%，对于一个不能拉开空间的内线球员来说，这表现非常糟糕。舒尔加是波士顿三个选秀权中的最后一个，他在我的模型中预测表现最佳，因为他职业生涯三分命中率高达39%。
布鲁克林篮网：C+
首轮： 埃戈尔·德明 (Egor Demin)（第8顺位），诺兰·特拉奥雷 (Nolan Traore)（第19顺位），德雷克·鲍威尔 (Drake Powell)（第22顺位），本·萨拉夫 (Ben Saraf)（第26顺位），丹尼·沃尔夫 (Danny Wolf)（第27顺位）
篮网队创纪录的首轮选秀权数量，从过程角度来看，其重要性几乎超过了具体的选秀结果，这也是我给予通过交易获得这些选秀权的操作高分的原因之一。
布鲁克林正在豪赌培养数量惊人的青少年球员，其中许多人的技术特点有所重叠。德明和特拉奥雷有很多共同点，他们都是具备体型的优秀组织者，但投篮和得分效率仍需提高。他们可以在防守端一起出场，但要在进攻端为这组球员拉开空间可能会是个挑战。
选中如此多潜力尚待开发的球员，应该有助于篮网队在2026年再次进入乐透区，因为那一年是他们控制自己首轮选秀权的最后一年，之后从2027年起，选秀权将归休斯顿火箭所有。
夏洛特黄蜂：B
首轮： 科恩·努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)（第4顺位），利亚姆·麦克尼利 (Liam McNeeley)（第29顺位）
次轮： 锡恩·詹姆斯 (Sion James)（第33顺位），瑞安·卡尔克布伦纳 (Ryan Kalkbrenner)（第34顺位）
请开始关于黄蜂队偏爱选拔来自研究三角区（Research Triangle）球员的玩笑吧，但努佩尔在我的预测中排名第二，并且完美填补了夏洛特在得分后卫位置的空缺。
尽管特雷·约翰逊 (Tre Johnson) 也有同样的情况，但努佩尔在杜克大学 (Duke) 的得分效率要高得多，并且在耐克EYBL联赛 (Nike EYBL) 中担任更大持球角色时，我的数据模型对他的评价也高于约翰逊。
选中麦克尼利，一个类似类型的新秀，很可能是在他跌出预期选秀区间（20顺位出头）后，一个最好的可得选择。我对黄蜂队在次轮高顺位选中詹姆斯——另一位“蓝魔”——的热情较低。詹姆斯在五年大学生涯中严格来说只是一名角色球员，使用率从未高于17.1%。
在夏洛特交易了首发中锋马克·威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams) 后，如果卡尔克布伦纳的挡拆防守能跟上速度，他也许能立即做出贡献。
芝加哥公牛：A-
首轮： 诺阿·埃森古 (Noa Essengue)（第12顺位）
次轮： 拉克兰·奥尔布里希 (Lachlan Olbrich)（第55顺位）
我对埃森古将如何与2024年乐透秀马塔斯·布泽利斯 (Matas Buzelis)——另一位年轻的锋线摇摆人——契合感到好奇。如果他们投篮足够好，能够一起打前锋，或者布泽利斯能够增重到有时可以打中锋，他们将为芝加哥提供长度和运动能力的综合优势。
值得称赞的是，公牛队选择当前可得的最佳球员，并继续选拔年轻球员，尽管他们一直抵制彻底摆烂以获得更高乐透签位的做法。
克利夫兰骑士：B
次轮： 泰雷斯·普罗克托 (Tyrese Proctor)（第49顺位），萨利乌·尼昂 (Saliou Niang)（第58顺位）
骑士队直到选秀第二晚才开始进行选择，并选中了泰雷斯·普罗克托 (Tyrese Proctor) 这样一位有趣的新秀，他在“大一即离校”的炒作之后继续发展。普罗克托上赛季三分命中率达到40.5%，并且展现出作为持球防守人的潜力，尽管他可以提高抢断率。尼昂作为一名海外培养型新秀，由于其投篮能力（职业生涯三分命中率26%，罚球命中率71%），面临更大的不确定性。
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 达拉斯独行侠：B
首轮： 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)（第1顺位）
你觉得独行侠管理层为此选秀权争论了多久？从达拉斯的组合在选秀乐透抽签中意外获得状元签的那一刻起，我们就知道弗拉格是他们的选择，这是理所当然的。
从过程角度来看，独行侠赢得乐透签位并不能获得赞扬，不搞砸这个选秀才是他们的功劳。
丹佛掘金：未完成
请习惯看到掘金队被评为“未完成”。他们在选秀结束前没有控制任何未来的次轮选秀权，并且仍然欠着两个受保护的首轮选秀权，从2027年开始。
底特律活塞：B
次轮： 查兹·拉尼尔 (Chaz Lanier)（第37顺位）
和前田纳西大学 (Tennessee) 球星道尔顿·克内希特 (Dalton Knecht) 非常相似，拉尼尔大器晚成，从2022-23赛季在北佛罗里达大学 (North Florida) 的场均4.7分，到上赛季在东南联盟 (SEC) 场均18分。他是一位投篮能力出众（职业生涯三分命中率40%）且有体型的球员，如果活塞队无法续约自由球员马利克·比斯利 (Malik Beasley) 和小蒂姆·哈达威 (Tim Hardaway Jr.)，他将为球队提供一些保障。
金州勇士：B
次轮： 亚历克斯·图伊 (Alex Toohey)（第52顺位），威尔·理查德 (Will Richard)（第56顺位）
图伊的投篮能力仍在提升中，上赛季他在澳大利亚NBL联赛 (Australian NBL) 的命中率为31%，但他在抢断率和盖帽率方面的防守积极性非常突出。我一直很喜欢理查德，他因其高两分球命中率而在我的预测中排名前30。
休斯顿火箭：未完成
火箭队用今年的两个选秀权来换取凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant)，但这笔交易要到7月6日才能完成。因此，尽管他们在选秀中有着出色的过往记录，但他们仍被视为赢家。
印第安纳步行者：A
次轮： 卡姆·琼斯 (Kam Jones)（第38顺位），泰伦·彼得 (Taelon Peter)（第54顺位）
步行者队连续两年做出了我最喜欢的次轮选秀。与2024年次轮秀约翰尼·弗菲 (Johnny Furphy)（20岁时作为新秀出场时间有限）不同，23岁的琼斯有更大的潜力立即做出贡献。泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 在NBA总决赛第七场遭遇跟腱撕裂后缺阵，印第安纳队正需要后卫线的帮助。
泰伦·彼得 (Taelon Peter) 大部分大学生涯都在NCAA二级阿肯色理工大学 (Division II Arkansas Tech) 度过，他是一个引人入胜的尝试。他是一名后卫，在利伯提大学 (Liberty) 大五赛季场均助攻仅1.0次，但当你两分命中率达到76%、三分命中率达到45%时，为何要传球呢？我不确定这能否转化到NBA，但对于第54顺位来说，印第安纳队没有任何损失。
洛杉矶快船：C-
首轮： 亚尼克·科南·尼德豪泽 (Yanic Konan Niederhauser)（第30顺位）
次轮： 科比·桑德斯 (Kobe Sanders)（第50顺位）
作为次轮秀，我可能会接受尼德豪泽的价值主张，他是一位大器晚成的优秀盖帽手，转学到宾夕法尼亚州立大学 (Penn State) 后成为一个得分威胁。
但在首轮选中他就很难说了，因为尼德豪泽的防守篮板能力低于平均水平，并且助攻失误比超过2:1。整体特点与2020年被快船队在第33顺位选中的丹尼尔·奥图鲁 (Daniel Oturu) 相似。
桑德斯也是一位大器晚成的球员，直到大学第四年才达到场均得分上双。我的预测更看重早期大学赛季的表现，因为早期脱颖而出通常是更好的预示。
洛杉矶湖人：B+
次轮： 阿杜·西耶罗 (Adou Thiero)（第36顺位）
值得称赞的是，湖人队在完成两笔交易后，通过支付现金从第55顺位上升到第36顺位。西耶罗的抢断率和盖帽率表明他有防守潜力，如果他能投进足够多的外线投篮以留在场上。西耶罗大学生涯三分命中率仅为28%。
孟菲斯灰熊：C-
首轮： 塞德里克·考沃德 (Cedric Coward)（第11顺位）
次轮： 贾冯·斯莫尔 (Javon Small)（第48顺位），贾迈·马沙克 (Jahmai Mashack)（第59顺位）
如果灰熊队没有向上交易选秀权，那就不像他们的选秀风格了，这是他们自2019年以来第四次在首轮向上交易。为了得到布兰登·克拉克 (Brandon Clarke) 而向上交易两个顺位是成功的。但为了得到杰克·拉拉维亚 (Jake LaRavia) 和齐亚尔·威廉姆斯 (Ziaire Williams) 而放弃更多价值则不然。
在这种情况下，孟菲斯队送出了在德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane) 交易中获得的无保护奥兰多首轮选秀权之一，以向上交易五个顺位，这充其量只能说价值存疑。这并非指责考沃德，他在我的纯数据预测版本中排名第13。但我至少会等到考沃德或卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant)（第14顺位）被选中后再进行交易。
我喜欢灰熊队选中斯莫尔的价值，他——恰如其分地——体型偏小，但考虑到他在西弗吉尼亚大学 (West Virginia) 大四时28%的使用率，他得分效率很高。马沙克在田纳西大学 (Tennessee) 大四时场均得分最高为6.0分，如果他具备积极防守的特点，会很适合灰熊队的“坚韧与磨砺”（Grit n’ Grind）时代。
迈阿密热火：A-
首轮： 卡斯帕拉斯·雅库乔尼斯 (Kasparas Jakucionis)（第20顺位）
雅库乔尼斯是一个不完美的新秀。他的抢断率和盖帽率低得令人担忧，而且他在伊利诺伊大学 (Illinois) 唯一一个赛季中也饱受失误困扰。
这仍然感觉像是对一个本赛季大部分时间都排在前十的球员的过度修正，而迈阿密队则利用这一点，做出了选秀中价值较高的选择之一。
密尔沃基雄鹿：B
次轮： 博戈柳布·马尔科维奇 (Bogoljub Markovic)（第47顺位）
雄鹿队在第47顺位选中的任何新秀都不会改变扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo) 在密尔沃基的未来。马尔科维奇在亚得里亚海联赛 (Adriatic League) 的第一个完整赛季中得分效率很高，两分球命中率61%，三分命中率37%，尽管较低的抢断率和盖帽率引发了防守问题。
明尼苏达森林狼：B-
首轮： 琼·贝林格 (Joan Beringer)（第17顺位）
次轮： 罗科·齐卡尔斯基 (Rocco Zikarsky)（第45顺位）
森林狼队可以预见贝林格——一位在斯洛文尼亚 (Slovenia) 打球、使用率不高但护筐出色的中锋——将如何融入他们的体系。但期望贝林格成为鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)——一位优秀的终结者，在NBA选秀联合试训中测得臂展长4英寸——是不现实的。
但随着戈贝尔年龄增长，明尼苏达将需要一位替代者，而贝林格有潜力填补这个空缺。
在次轮，森林狼队通过选中7英尺3英寸（约2米21）的齐卡尔斯基，再次加码这个角色。这两名球员的预测 remarkably similar，明尼苏达将如何处理他们的同步发展将会很有趣。
新奥尔良鹈鹕：F
首轮： 杰里米亚·费尔斯 (Jeremiah Fears)（第7顺位），德里克·奎恩 (Derik Queen)（第13顺位）
次轮： 米卡·皮维 (Micah Peavy)（第40顺位）
鹈鹕队为了在第13顺位选中奎恩而进行的交易是有可能成功的。菲尼克斯太阳 (Phoenix Suns) 在2018年为了向上交易六个顺位而放弃了一个无保护的未来首轮签，他们从未后悔选中了米卡尔·布里奇斯 (Mikal Bridges)。
不过，新奥尔良队在很大程度上押注于他们对奎恩的评估，认为他虽然价值不如费尔斯，但仍然值得向上交易得到。而且下行风险更高，因为鹈鹕队自己的2026年选秀权可能也是交易的一部分。至少布里奇斯在我预测中综合排名第六。而奎恩则排在前30之外。
我喜欢新奥尔良队避开在第7顺位选择费尔斯的做法，尽管他是当时普遍认为的最佳新秀。但事后看来，鹈鹕队用自己的选秀权选中奎恩，比同时得到这两名新秀要好得多。
皮维在乔治城大学 (Georgetown) 的大五赛季迎来爆发，场均得到17.2分和2.3次抢断。三分命中率跃升至40%让皮维有机会胜任3D球员角色，尽管他在罚球线（66%）上没有表现出同样的进步。
纽约尼克斯：C+
次轮： 穆罕默德·迪亚瓦拉 (Mohamed Diawara)（第51顺位）
迪亚瓦拉在他的祖国法国并没有发展成为一名有影响力的球员，上赛季他在肖莱 (Cholet) 场均仅得到5.8分。将迪亚瓦拉海外培养，可能比让他占据一个球队名单位置更有意义。
俄克拉荷马城雷霆：B
首轮： 托马斯·索伯 (Thomas Sorber)（第15顺位）
次轮： 布鲁克斯·巴恩海泽 (Brooks Barnhizer)（第44顺位）
与贝林格一样，这里的愿景很明确。索伯在乔治城大学 (Georgetown) 展现了出色的防守数据，并且作为一名大一中锋，他是一名出色的传球手，助攻多于失误。
眯着眼睛看，你或许能看到以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因 (Isaiah Hartenstein) 的轮廓，随着俄克拉荷马城核心阵容变得越来越昂贵，他很可能成为多余之人。
由于没有足够的阵容位置容纳多个首轮选秀权，雷霆队在一笔与萨克拉门托的交易中将第24顺位推迟，这笔交易缺乏上升空间（俄克拉荷马城不能选择高于第17顺位），但更符合冠军球队的时间线。
据吉沃尼称，巴恩海泽将签下双向合同。他在西北大学 (Northwestern) 是一个低效的大学得分手（真实投篮命中率0.500），但在抢断和盖帽方面表现出色。
奥兰多魔术：B+
首轮： 杰斯·理查德森 (Jase Richardson)（第25顺位）
次轮： 诺亚·潘达 (Noah Penda)（第32顺位）
理查德森能够加盟其父亲贾森·理查德森 (Jason Richardson) 曾效力过的四支NBA球队之一，这充满有趣的对称性，我也喜欢这个选秀的价值。
理查德森在NBA选秀联合试训中赤脚身高仅略高于6英尺，在此之前他曾被预测为乐透秀。如此巨大的落差总是让我感到困惑。理查德森在密歇根州立大学 (Michigan State) 仍然表现出色。
奥兰多队现在不需要理查德森立即做出贡献，但当魔术队感受到为得到贝恩而放弃四个首轮签的影响时，他可以成长为一名轮换球员。
随后，奥兰多队付出了沉重的代价——第46顺位和第57顺位，外加两个未来的次轮签——来向上交易以选择潘达。潘达的投篮能力仍在提升中。他上赛季的罚球命中率不足70%。
费城76人：B+
首轮： VJ·埃奇科姆 (VJ Edgecombe)（第3顺位）
次轮： 约翰尼·布鲁姆 (Johni Broome)（第35顺位）
尽管努佩尔在我的预测中略微领先，但我可能也会在这里选择埃奇科姆。我喜欢他的防守基础，他在贝勒大学 (Baylor) 的抢断率极高，并且拥有成为投篮创造者的运动能力。
努佩尔可能更适合乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid)，但考虑到恩比德的健康状况，我不确定这是否仍应是费城的主要时间线。
布鲁姆上赛季被评为全美大学一致认可的最佳阵容一阵成员，他可以立即帮助76人。他为中锋位置带来了比上赛季恩比德的替补（安德烈·德拉蒙德 (Andre Drummond) 和阿德姆·博纳 (Adem Bona)）更多的技术。
菲尼克斯太阳：B
首轮： 哈曼·马卢奇 (Khaman Maluach)（第10顺位）
次轮： 拉希尔·弗莱明 (Rasheer Fleming)（第31顺位），科比·布雷亚 (Koby Brea)（第41顺位）
一位杜克大学 (Duke) 的中锋落入到急需前场球员的太阳队手中，太阳队还奇怪地通过交易得到了前杜克大学中锋马克·威廉姆斯 (Mark Williams)，这笔交易是单独评分的。
值得思考的是，特别是在这种情况下，菲尼克斯是否能像紧随其后的球队那样，进行有价值的向下交易。但由于马卢奇是当时板上最佳的新秀，太阳队原地不动更有意义。
菲尼克斯用未来的选秀权向上交易到了次轮首位和第41顺位。各队都在争夺圣约瑟夫大学 (Saint Joseph’s) 的前锋拉希尔·弗莱明 (Rasheer Fleming)，他在我的纯数据预测中排名第12位。弗莱明为太阳队提供了另一位高质量的盖帽手，这次他拥有更大的射程。尽管布雷亚是球队中后卫过多的球队的另一位得分后卫，但菲尼克斯队需要他的投篮——他在我的数据库中拥有所有球员中最高的射手技术预测——尤其是在格雷森·阿伦 (Grayson Allen) 被交易的情况下。
波特兰开拓者：C-
首轮： 杨瀚森 (Yang Hansen)（第16顺位）
杨瀚森或许能成为全明星。他也许能带领开拓者队争夺总冠军。我们 确实 知道的是，其他球队对杨瀚森的评价不如波特兰队高，这意味着球队正在押注自己能够战胜市场。
值得称赞的是，开拓者队通过向下交易获得了一个额外的首轮选秀权。但如果能进行老鹰队那样的交易，他们会做得更好。
萨克拉门托国王：C
首轮： 尼克·克利福德 (Nique Clifford)（第24顺位）
次轮： 马克西姆·雷诺 (Maxime Raynaud)（第42顺位）
国王队在将第13顺位送给亚特兰大以完成凯文·赫尔特 (Kevin Huerter) 交易后，动用了从达龙·福克斯 (De’Aaron Fox) 交易中获得的额外首轮签，得以重回首轮。萨克拉门托通过对该选秀权设置前16顺位保护，限制了此次交易可能带来的下行风险，该保护只有一年的生效窗口。
我的模型对克利福德的评价低于球探，因为他直到23岁、大学生涯第五年才成为一名认真的NBA新秀。时间会证明这其中有多少是克利福德真正提高了技术，而不是利用了不会延续到NBA的经验优势。
球探们对雷诺的评价也更高，这主要是因为他作为中锋盖帽率偏低。但我的模型去年错过了昆汀·波斯特 (Quinten Post)，而雷诺在大学高年级投进67记三分后，也带来了相似的技术特点。
圣安东尼奥马刺：A
首轮： 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)（第2顺位），卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant)（第14顺位）
哈珀一直是被普遍认定的榜眼秀，所以除了考虑可能的重磅交易之外，圣安东尼奥队的工作早早就完成了。
马刺队在他们的另一个乐透签方面获得了更多赞扬，他们等待布莱恩特落到他们手中。我非常看好布莱恩特的3D球员潜力，这使他成为一支理想球队的完美选择，该队在哈珀、福克斯和维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 之间拥有溢出的得分创造力。
多伦多猛龙：B
首轮： 科林·默里-博伊尔斯 (Collin Murray-Boyles)（第9顺位）
次轮： 阿利贾·马丁 (Alijah Martin)（第39顺位）
我相信默里-博伊尔斯非传统的比赛风格会适应NBA，尽管多伦多并非理想的落脚点。
如果他要作为大前锋取得成功，默里-博伊尔斯需要周围有投篮能力强的球员，而猛龙队有一位不擅长投篮的中锋雅各布·珀尔特尔 (Jakob Poeltl)，并且外线投篮能力也只是平平。
如果2024年次轮秀乔纳森·莫格博 (Jonathan Mogbo) 在新秀赛季投出24%的三分命中率后能开发出三分射程，那么这两位身高偏矮的内线球员可能会成为一个有趣的锋线组合，在防守端能产生巨大影响。
马丁对于一名得分后卫来说身高偏矮（6英尺2英寸，约1米88），但在大学时期表现高效。他在我的纯数据预测中排名第26位。
犹他爵士：B+
首轮： 埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey)（第5顺位），小沃尔特·克莱顿 (Walter Clayton Jr.)（第18顺位）
次轮： 约翰·通杰 (John Tonje)（第53顺位）
我曾将贝利比作波士顿凯尔特人队的双子星杰伦·布朗 (Jaylen Brown) 和杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 大学时期的情况，即加盟一支争冠球队，他将被要求提高投篮选择。
在同一批选出这两位侧翼的总经理（奥斯汀·安吉 (Austin Ainge) 和丹尼·安吉 (Danny Ainge)）选中贝利加盟一支离胜利尚远的犹他队后，这个比较显得尤为贴切。贝利（在我的模型中排名第五）的价值主张在这里是合理的。我也不担心贝利不想来这里。
但爵士队必须谨慎管理他的发展，才能像凯尔特人对待布朗和塔图姆那样，将贝利培养成外线明星。增加克莱顿——一位NCAA冠军得主和强力外线射手——可以帮助这个过程。犹他队的后场人员拥挤，但老将乔丹·克拉克森 (Jordan Clarkson) 和科林·塞克斯顿 (Collin Sexton) 可能不会长期留队，这为克莱顿创造了机会。
通杰24岁，是本次选秀中年龄最大的球员。他在威斯康星大学 (Wisconsin) 大六赛季场均能获得近7次罚球，这一点值得注意。但通杰91%的罚球命中率和38%的三分命中率应该能更好地转化为NBA表现。
华盛顿奇才：B-
首轮： 特雷·约翰逊 (Tre Johnson)（第6顺位），威尔·莱利 (Will Riley)（第21顺位）
次轮： 贾米尔·沃特金斯 (Jamir Watkins)（第43顺位）
与篮网队类似，奇才队也在大力培养年轻球员，他们又选中了两名青少年球员，加上2024年首轮选中的四名球员。（其中包括交易截止日获得的AJ·约翰逊 (AJ Johnson)。）
我曾对特雷·约翰逊作为前五顺位新秀持怀疑态度，因为他防守数据不佳，两分球命中率低。超出那个范围，他作为射手的潜力足以支撑这个选择。莱利被选中的顺位比我预期的略高，他也必须提高自己的防守组织能力。
沃特金斯将于七月年满24岁，他带来了更多的经验。沃特金斯的防守潜力毋庸置疑，但他需要提高他职业生涯32.5%的三分命中率。
点击查看原文：2025 NBA draft grades: Winners, losers for all 30 teams
2025 NBA draft grades: Winners, losers for all 30 teams
My team grades for the 2025 NBA draft, completed Thursday night, are the only ones you’ll read that aren’t concerned with results.
After the teams call in their picks, factors outside their control – and even perhaps outside the player’s control, particularly health – will determine the results. No team, not even the Brooklyn Nets with their five first-round picks, drafts enough players in one year for that to even out.
Keeping that in mind, we’re evaluating picks based on the information available to us at the time they were made in terms of value and fit. I’m relying heavily on my stats-based projections for prospects, as well as analysis from ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo.
Trades are also considered. In general, teams overpay to move up in the draft, overestimating their ability to evaluate prospects better than their peers. Even by those standards, this year’s trade up from No. 23 to No. 13 by the New Orleans Pelicans stands out as especially risky. As a result, the Pelicans got the worst grade of any team, and the Atlanta Hawks (who dealt with New Orleans) are tied for the best.
Let’s run through my grades for every team.
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS
Atlanta Hawks: A
Round 1: Asa Newell (No. 23)
It almost didn’t matter whom the Hawks took after getting an unprotected 2026 first-round pick – the better of those from Milwaukee and New Orleans – via the Pelicans to move down 10 spots. I might have made that trade straight up without getting No. 23. All the better that Atlanta took a prospect ranked 13th in my projections.
Time will tell if Newell cracks the rotation quickly enough to pair with newly acquired Kristaps Porzingis, but I love that fit because Porzingis’ strengths fit perfectly with the shortcomings that make Newell a forward/center tweener.
Boston Celtics: C+
Round 1: Hugo Gonzalez (No. 28)
Round 2: Amari Williams(No. 46), Max Shulga (No. 57)
Gonzalez would have made more sense for Boston as a stash pick who would come over later in his development. Instead, Brad Stevens indicated the Celtics plan to bring him to the NBA next season.
On the broadcast, Gonzalez was compared to Denver Nuggets wing Christian Braun. One key difference: Braun, though not thought of as a shooter, hit 38% of his 3s in college. Gonzalez shot 27% at Real Madrid.
Williams is an intriguing prospect with multiple strengths as a rebounder, rim protector and facilitator at the elbow. But he shot just 54% career on 2s, very poor for a center who doesn’t stretch the floor. Shulga, the last of Boston’s three picks, projected best in my model because of his 39% career 3-point shooting.
Brooklyn Nets: C+
Round 1: Egor Demin (No. 8), Nolan Traore (No. 19), Drake Powell (No. 22), Ben Saraf (No. 26), Danny Wolf (No. 27)
The Nets’ record-setting volume of first-round selections is almost more important from a process standpoint than the picks, one reason I gave high marks to the trades to acquire them.
Brooklyn is betting on developing a remarkable number of teenagers, many of them with overlapping skill sets. Demin and Traore share a lot of traits as strong playmakers with size whose shooting and scoring efficiency need work. They can play together defensively, but spacing the floor with those groups could prove challenging.
Drafting so many raw players should help the Nets’ efforts to land in the lottery again in 2026, the last year they control their first-round pick before the Houston Rockets get it in 2027.
Charlotte Hornets: B
Round 1: Kon Knueppel (No. 4), Liam McNeeley (No. 29)
Round 2: Sion James (No. 33), Ryan Kalkbrenner (No. 34)
Cue the jokes about the Hornets’ penchant for drafting players from the Research Triangle, but Knueppel was second in my projections and perfectly fills Charlotte’s void at shooting guard.
Although the same was true of Tre Johnson, Knueppel was a far more efficient scorer at Duke and rated better by my metrics than Johnson in a larger on-ball role in the Nike EYBL.
Selecting McNeeley, who fits a similar mold, was probably a best-available pick after he dropped well below his expected range in the early 20s. I’m less enamored with the Hornets taking James, another Blue Devil, high in the second round. Strictly a role player in five college seasons, James never had a usage rate higher than 17.1%.
After Charlotte traded starting center Mark Williams, there might be an opening for Kalkbrenner to contribute immediately if his pick-and-roll defense is up to speed.
Chicago Bulls: A-
Round 1: Noa Essengue (No. 12)
Round 2: Lachlan Olbrich (No. 55)
I’m intrigued by how Essengue will fit with 2024 lottery pick Matas Buzelis, another young combo forward. If they shoot well enough to play together at forward or Buzelis bulks up enough to play center at times, they’d give Chicago combined strengths of length and athleticism.
Credit to the Bulls for taking the best player available and continuing to draft young, despite their resistance to bottoming out and picking higher in the lottery.
Cleveland Cavaliers: B
Round 2: Tyrese Proctor (No. 49), Saliou Niang (No. 58)
The Cavaliers didn’t get on the clock until well into Night 2 of the draft and landed an interesting prospect in Proctor, who continued to develop after the one-and-done hype. Proctor shot 40.5% on 3s last season and shows promise as an on-ball defender, though he could improve his steal rate. Niang, a stash pick, faces longer odds because of his shooting: 26% career on 3s and 71% from the foul line.
Dallas Mavericks: B
Round 1: Cooper Flagg (No. 1)
How long do you think the Mavericks’ front office debated this pick? From the moment Dallas’ combination unexpectedly came up No. 1 in the draft lottery, we knew Flagg was the pick, and rightfully so.
From a process standpoint, the Mavericks don’t get credit for winning the lottery, only for not screwing it up.
Denver Nuggets: Incomplete
Get used to seeing the Nuggets graded “incomplete.” They didn’t control any future second-round pick before getting their 2032 second-rounder when the draft concluded and still owe a pair of protected first-round picks, starting in 2027.
Detroit Pistons: B
Round 2: Chaz Lanier (No. 37)
Much like fellow former Tennessee star Dalton Knecht, Lanier bloomed late, going from 4.7 points at North Florida in 2022-23 to averaging 18 points in the SEC last season. He’s a big-time shooter (40% career on 3s) with size who gives the Pistons some insurance if they can’t re-sign free agents Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Golden State Warriors: B
Round 2: Alex Toohey (No. 52), Will Richard (No. 56)
Toohey’s shooting is still a work in progress after he hit 31% in the Australian NBL last season, but his defensive activity stood out in steal and block rates. I’ve long liked Richard, who ranked in the top 30 of my projections because of his high 2-point percentage.
Houston Rockets: Incomplete
The Rockets used both of this year’s picks to acquire Kevin Durant in a trade that can’t be completed until July 6. As a result, consider them a winner despite their strong track record in the draft.
Indiana Pacers: A
Round 2: Kam Jones (No. 38), Taelon Peter (No. 54)
The Pacers have made one of my favorite second-round picks two years in a row. Unlike 2024 second-rounder Johnny Furphy, who played sparingly as a rookie at age 20, Jones, 23, has more potential to contribute immediately. Indiana could use the guard help with Tyrese Haliburton sidelined after his Achilles rupture during Game 7 of the NBA Finals
Peter, who spent the bulk of his college career at Division II Arkansas Tech, is a fascinating swing. He’s a guard who averaged just 1.0 assist as a fifth-year senior at Liberty, but why pass when you shoot 76% on 2s and 45% on 3s? I’m not sure that will translate, but at the No. 54 pick, there’s no downside for Indiana.
LA Clippers: C-
Round 1: Yanic Konan Niederhauser (No. 30)
Round 2: Kobe Sanders (No. 50)
As a second-round pick, I could buy the value proposition on the late-blooming Niederhauser, an outstanding shot blocker who grew into a scoring threat after transferring to Penn State.
Taking him in the first round is a tougher sell, given that Niederhauser is a below-average defensive rebounder and posted more than twice as many assists as turnovers. The overall profile is similar to Daniel Oturu, drafted No. 33 by the Clippers in 2020.
Sanders was a late bloomer as well, not having averaged double-figure scoring until his fourth year in college. My projections put more weight on earlier college seasons because standing out early has typically been a better indicator.
Los Angeles Lakers: B+
Round 2: Adou Thiero (No. 36)
Kudos to the Lakers for using cash to move up from No. 55 to No. 36 after making a pair of trades. Thiero’s steal and block rates suggest defensive potential if he can make enough outside shots to stay on the court. Thiero was a career 28% college 3-point shooter.
Memphis Grizzlies: C-
Round 1: Cedric Coward (No. 11)
Round 2: Javon Small (No. 48), Jahmai Mashack (No. 59)
It wouldn’t be a Grizzlies draft without a trade up, their fourth in the first round since 2019. Going up two spots for Brandon Clarke worked out. Giving up more value to get Jake LaRavia and Ziaire Williams did not.
In this case, Memphis sent one of the unprotected Orlando first-round picks acquired in the Desmond Bane trade to move up five picks, which is questionable value, at best. Don’t take this as an indictment of Coward, who ranked 13th in the stats-only version of my projections. But I would have waited at least until either Coward or Carter Bryant (No. 14) was off the board before moving up.
I liked the Grizzlies’ value with Small, who is – fittingly – undersized but scored efficiently, considering his 28% usage rate as a senior at West Virginia. Mashack, who topped out at 6.0 PPG as a senior at Tennessee, would have fit the Grit n’ Grind Grizzlies with his active defense.
Miami Heat: A-
Round 1: Kasparas Jakucionis (No. 20)
Jakucionis is an imperfect prospect. His steal and block rates are troublingly low, and he also struggled with turnovers in his lone season at Illinois.
This still feels like an overcorrection for a player who was ranked in the top 10 much of the year, and Miami took advantage with one of the draft’s better value picks.
Milwaukee Bucks: B
Round 2: Bogoljub Markovic (No. 47)
No prospect the Bucks could have drafted at the 47th pick was going to alter Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future in Milwaukee. Markovic scored efficiently in his first full season in the Adriatic League, shooting 61% on 2s and 37% on 3s, though low steal and block rates raise defensive questions.
Minnesota Timberwolves: B-
Round 1: Joan Beringer (No. 17)
Round 2: Rocco Zikarsky (No. 45)
The Timberwolves can envision how Beringer, a low-usage center who was a premier rim protector playing in Slovenia, will fit in their system. It’s unrealistic to expect Beringer to become Rudy Gobert, a premier finisher with a wingspan measured 4 inches higher at the NBA draft combine.
But as Gobert ages, Minnesota will need a replacement and Beringer has the potential to fill that void.
In the second round, the Timberwolves doubled down on that role by taking the 7-foot-3 Zikarsky. The two players have remarkably similar projections, and it will be interesting to see how Minnesota handles their simultaneous development.
New Orleans Pelicans: F
Round 1: Jeremiah Fears (No. 7), Derik Queen (No. 13)
Round 2: Micah Peavy (No. 40)
It’s possible for a trade like the Pelicans made to take Queen at No. 13 to work out. The Phoenix Suns gave up an unprotected future first-rounder in 2018 to move up six spots and never regretted landing Mikal Bridges.
Still, New Orleans is betting heavily on its evaluation that Queen is less valuable than Fears and still worth moving up to get. And the downside is higher because the Pelicans’ own 2026 pick is potentially part of the deal. At least Bridges was a prospect who rated sixth overall in my projections. Queen was outside the top 30.
I liked New Orleans eschewing the need to take Fears at No. 7, when he was the consensus best prospect on the board. But with hindsight, the Pelicans would be better off having drafted Queen with their own pick than landing both prospects.
Peavy broke out as a fifth-year senior at Georgetown, averaging 17.2 points and 2.3 steals. The jump to 40% 3-point shooting gives Peavy a shot at a 3-and-D role, though he didn’t show the same improvement at the foul line (66%).
New York Knicks: C+
Round 2: Mohamed Diawara (No. 51)
Diawara hasn’t developed into an impact player in his native France, having averaged just 5.8 points for Cholet last season. Stashing Diawara overseas might make more sense than having him take up a roster spot.
Oklahoma City Thunder: B
Round 1: Thomas Sorber (No. 15)
Round 2: Brooks Barnhizer (No. 44)
As with Beringer, the vision here is clear. Sorber posted terrific defensive numbers at Georgetown and was a strong passer for a freshman center, recording more assists than turnovers.
Squint and you can see the outline of Isaiah Hartenstein, likely to be an odd man out as Oklahoma City’s core grows more expensive.
Lacking roster spots for multiple first-round picks, the Thunder pushed the No. 24 pick down the road in a deal with Sacramento that lacks upside (Oklahoma City can’t pick higher than No. 17), but better fits the timeline for the champs.
Barnhizer will be on a two-way contract, per Givony. He was an inefficient college scorer (.500 true shooting percentage) who racked up steals and blocks at Northwestern.
Orlando Magic: B+
Round 1: Jase Richardson (No. 25)
Round 2: Noah Penda (No. 32)
There’s fun symmetry in Richardson going to one of his father Jason Richardson’s four NBA teams, and I also like the value.
Richardson was projected in the lottery before measuring in at a little over 6 feet in bare feet in the NBA draft combine. Such dramatic shifts always confuse me. Richardson still produced at Michigan State.
Orlando doesn’t need Richardson to contribute now, but he can grow into a rotation player when the Magic are feeling the effect of giving up four first-rounders to acquire Bane.
Orlando then paid a heavy price – No. 46 and No. 57, plus two future second-rounders – to trade up to take Penda. Penda’s shooting is a work in progress. He hit under 70% of his free throws last season.
Philadelphia 76ers: B+
Round 1: VJ Edgecombe (No. 3)
Round 2: Johni Broome (No. 35)
Although Knueppel was a little ahead in my projections, I probably would have taken Edgecombe here, too. I like his defensive base, with a sky-high steal rate at Baylor, and athleticism to become a shot creator.
Knueppel might have fit more cleanly with Joel Embiid, but given the state of Embiid’s health, I’m not sure that should be Philadelphia’s primary timeline anymore.
A consensus first-team All-America pick last season, Broome could help the Sixers immediately. He brings more skill to the center spot than the backups (Andre Drummond and Adem Bona) who struggled to fill in for Embiid last season.
Phoenix Suns: B
Round 1: Khaman Maluach (No. 10)
Round 2: Rasheer Fleming (No. 31), Koby Brea (No. 41)
A Duke center fell to the frontcourt-needy Suns, who also strangely traded to acquire former Duke center Mark Williams in a deal graded separately.
It’s worth wondering, particularly in that context, whether Phoenix could have gotten the valuable trades down that teams just behind them made. But as Maluach was the top prospect on the board, standing pat made more sense for the Suns.
Phoenix used future picks to move up to the top pick in the second round and No. 41. Teams were competing to take Saint Joseph’s forward Rasheer Fleming, 12th in my stats-only projections. Fleming gives the Suns another quality shot blocker, this time with more range. Though Brea is another shooting guard on a team overloaded with them, Phoenix could use his shooting – he has the highest skill projection as a shooter of any player in my database – particularly if Grayson Allen is traded.
Portland Trail Blazers: C-
Round 1: Yang Hansen (No. 16)
Hansen might become an All-Star. He could lead the Blazers into championship contention. What we do know is that other teams didn’t value Hansen as much as Portland, meaning the team is betting on its ability to beat the market.
To the Blazers’ credit, they picked up an extra first-round pick by moving down. But they would have been far better off making the same trade the Hawks did, if it were available.
Sacramento Kings: C
Round 1: Nique Clifford (No. 24)
Round 2: Maxime Raynaud (No. 42)
Having sent the No. 13 pick to Atlanta to complete the Kevin Huerter trade, the Kings tapped into the extra first-rounders coming from the De’Aaron Fox deal to get back in the first round. Sacramento limited the possible downside of the move by putting top-16 protection on the pick, which has only a one-year window to convey.
My model was lower on Clifford than scouts because he didn’t emerge as a serious NBA prospect until his fifth year of college at age 23. Time will tell how much of that was Clifford legitimately improving his skill, as opposed to utilizing an experience advantage that won’t carry over.
Scouts were also higher on Raynaud, largely because of his subpar block rate for a center. But my model missed on Quinten Post last year, and Raynaud brings a similar skill set after hitting 67 3-pointers as a senior.
San Antonio Spurs: A
Round 1: Dylan Harper (No. 2), Carter Bryant (No. 14)
Harper was always the consensus No. 2 pick, so aside from considering possible blockbuster trades, San Antonio’s work there was done early.
The Spurs get more credit for their other lottery pick, where they waited out Bryant falling to them. I’m high on Bryant’s 3-and-D potential, making him an ideal fit on a team that’s overflowing with shot creation between Harper, Fox and Victor Wembanyama.
Toronto Raptors: B
Round 1: Collin Murray-Boyles (No. 9)
Round 2: Alijah Martin (No. 39)
I’m a believer that Murray-Boyles’ unorthodox game will translate to the NBA, though Toronto wasn’t an ideal landing spot.
If he’s going to succeed as a power forward, Murray-Boyles needs shooting around him, and the Raptors have a nonshooting center in Jakob Poeltl and only adequate perimeter shooting.
If 2024 second-round pick Jonathan Mogbo develops 3-point range after shooting 24% as a rookie, the two undersized big men could be an interesting frontcourt pairing that’s high on impact defensive plays.
Martin is undersized for a shooting guard at 6-foot-2 but productive in college. He ranked 26th in my stats-only projections.
Utah Jazz: B+
Round 1: Ace Bailey (No. 5), Walter Clayton Jr. (No. 18)
Round 2: John Tonje (No. 53)
I’ve compared Bailey to the Boston Celtics’ duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum coming out of college in terms of going to a contending team, where he’d be asked to refine his shot selection.
That comparison looks especially relevant after the same executives who drafted those wings (Austin and Danny Ainge) took Bailey to join a Utah team that’s still far from winning. The value proposition for Bailey, fifth in my model, makes sense here. And I’m not worried that Bailey didn’t want to land here.
But the Jazz will have to carefully manage his development to turn Bailey into a perimeter star as the Celtics did with Brown and Tatum. Adding Clayton, an NCAA champion and potent outside shooter, could help that process. Utah has a crowded backcourt, but veterans Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton might not be part of that for long, creating opportunity for Clayton.
At 24, Tonje was the oldest player selected. He got to the foul line nearly seven times per game, which is worth discounting, at Wisconsin as a sixth-year senior. But Tonje shooting 91% from the free throw line and hitting 38% of his 3s should translate better to the NBA.
Washington Wizards: B-
Round 1: Tre Johnson (No. 6), Will Riley (No. 21)
Round 2: Jamir Watkins (No. 43)
Similar to the Nets, the Wizards are leaning heavily into youth, taking two more teenagers to go with the four they added from the 2024 first round. (That includes AJ Johnson, acquired at the deadline.)
I was skeptical of Tre Johnson as a top-five prospect because of his poor defensive metrics and low 2-point percentage. Outside that range, his potential as a shooter justifies the pick. Riley went a little ahead of where I had him, and he will also have to improve his defensive playmaking.
Watkins, who will turn 24 in July, brings more experience. There’s no questioning Watkins’ defensive potential, but he needs to improve his 32.5% career 3-point shooting.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN