By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-06-19 06:49:15
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
如果一位高潜力新秀顺位下滑，马刺至少应该考虑动用部分资产，以争取另一位潜在的基石球员。
尽管关于马刺在2025年选秀大会上如何使用榜眼签没有太多疑问，但对于他们的第二个乐透签却存在更多不确定性。有报道指出，他们可能根本不会使用这个签位，而是将其交易出去以换取老将帮助，这不无道理。
一个风险更高但有趣的选项是，如果有人顺位下滑，马刺可以向上交易，送出未来选秀权以确保今年再得到一名年轻的基石球员。马刺与其动用资产争取凯文·杜兰特 (Kevin Durant) 这样的老将明星，不如尝试得到第二位高潜力新秀，而这样的机会可能存在。
“He is the only player who has yet to conduct a single workout.”@ DraftExpress thinks that 埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey) might be sliding down the NBA draft board pic.twitter.com/aONUKiTHVW
— NBA on ESPN (@ ESPNNBA) 2025年6月18日
埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey) 迄今为止拒绝为除了76人队以外的球队进行试训，如果费城选择其他方向，他可能会顺位下滑，据ESPN的乔纳森·吉沃尼 (Jonathan Givony) 报道。如果真是那样，他将是一个值得关注的目标。
然而，对贝利 (Bailey) 的担忧远不止试训。他是一名有风险的新秀。在联合试训中，他的身体测量数据不及预期，身高更接近6英尺8英寸，而非罗格斯大学 (Rutgers) 所描述的6英尺10英寸。他最突出的优点是得分能力，但大学时期效率不高，这主要是因为他过度依赖跳投。埃斯的三分命中率为34.6%，中距离投篮表现出色，但他很少获得罚球机会，也几乎没有冲击篮筐。他之所以游弋在外线，部分原因是他缺乏持续突破到内线的运球能力，并且容易受到身体对抗的困扰。不仅他的出手选择需要改进，他的整体决策能力也存在问题，表现为他的失误数实际上多于助攻数。他在防守端偶有亮点，有时能很好地利用臂展和运动能力盖帽或干扰投篮，但在那支表现低于预期的球队中，他缺乏稳定性。
他会努力修正这些缺陷吗？这是一个大问题，因为他拥有明星般的心态，这最终可能会损害他的选秀行情。他对自身能力的自信可能会让包括马刺在内的球队望而却步。据吉沃尼 (Givony) 透露，贝利 (Bailey) 很可能希望立即获得大量出场时间和核心角色，因为他相信自己已经为此做好了准备。他在联合试训中的言论也证实了这一点。他的出手选择是各支球队主要担忧的问题，但他表示，对别人而言的糟糕投篮，对他来说却不是。
“What might be a bad shot to you, you don’t work on it. I work on it.”
埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey) 关于他高难度投篮的语录，以及他如何练习面对双人或三人包夹时的投篮。 pic.twitter.com/9ZoqLYPV4c
— 蔡斯·休斯 (Chase Hughes) (@ chasedcsports) 2025年5月15日
当被问及列举两个优点和一个缺点时，他表示自己没有缺点，并且优点超过两个。
Favorite part of our ESPN Combine broadcast interviews was easily 埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey)'s answer to Sean Farnham’s question.
“Ain’t got no weaknesses and I got more than two strengths big dog” pic.twitter.com/RTTUXzvOla
— 乔纳森·吉沃尼 (Jonathan Givony) (@ DraftExpress) 2025年5月16日
自信本身没错，但贝利 (Bailey) 目前似乎缺乏自我认知。再说，他是本届选秀中最年轻的新秀之一，他的天赋毋庸置疑，所以不难理解他为何可能缺乏成熟度却不乏傲气。此外，他的投篮能力确实特别。看着他命中那些极其困难的出手，你不可能不为之着迷。反驳观点会认为，创造轻松投篮机会远比命中高难度投篮更好，但季后赛表明，你需要那些在其他都行不通时，依然能得分的球员。埃斯 (Ace) 在这方面是大师。他命中一些投篮的难度之高，常常让你忘记是他自己制造了这些障碍。他的潜力是真实存在的。他最终可能成为一名明星。
然而，他可能需要一段时间才能达到那个水平，并且他可以受益于马刺能够提供的体系和相对较低的期望。埃斯 (Ace) 可以立即作为空间型球员（接球投篮三分命中率38.7%）融入球队，同时在防守端提供运动能力和活力，就像当年科怀·伦纳德 (Kawhi Leonard) 所做的那样。“银黑军团”队中还有其他高水平的年轻天赋，因此教练组可以循序渐进地培养他，给他自由发挥投篮能力的空间，同时帮助他完善出手选择。如果用榜眼签选中哈珀 (Harper)，让这两位前罗格斯大学 (Rutgers) 的球星重聚，可能会为他们两人创造一个舒适的环境。选秀顺位下滑可能会让贝利 (Bailey) 变得谦逊，而看到圣安东尼奥 (San Antonio) 如此渴望他，甚至愿意向上交易得到他，可能会让他更加珍视这支球队。
问题在于，尽管他有缺陷，但仍有球队会乐意选中并留下他。要让贝利 (Bailey) 加盟马刺 (Spurs) 哪怕只有一丝现实性，他不仅需要顺位下滑到76人队 (76ers) 之后，还需要被那些需要顶级天赋且过去曾展现出不惧冒险的球队跳过，比如奇才队 (Wizards)、黄蜂队 (Hornets) 和鹈鹕队 (Pelicans)。在某种程度上，纯粹的天赋和精英级的运动能力会压过对成熟度的担忧，因此除非担忧加剧，否则向上交易得到他的代价可能过高。
尽管如此，如果贝利 (Bailey) 或其他任何可能成为马刺 (Spurs) 核心的球员突然顺位下滑，或者排在他们前面的球队似乎愿意向下交易或退出选秀，马刺至少应该探索利用其选秀资产立即行动的可能性。正如去年将八号签换取未来选秀资产是明智之举一样，如果其他球队的选择变得可以争取，那么今年在乐透区瞄准其他球员可能是一个好的策略。如果一些年轻球员和选秀权的组合可以用来争取37岁的杜兰特 (Durant)，那么至少考虑用同样一些资产向上交易以得到合适的潜力新秀，也是合情合理的。
马刺不太可能得到贝利 (Bailey)。他们甚至可能对他不感兴趣，而且可能会有一场竞价战来争取他。从14号签向上交易可能很棘手。最现实的情况是圣安东尼奥 (San Antonio) 将这个签位交易出去以换取老将帮助，或者保留这个签位，并在他们的大名单中选择最佳球员。
然而，如果选秀之夜变得混乱，那么如果有人顺位下滑并且有机会获得高水平的年轻天赋时，积极主动可能不是最糟糕的主意。
点击查看原文：If Ace Bailey slides in the draft, the Spurs should try to trade up for him
If Ace Bailey slides in the draft, the Spurs should try to trade up for him
If a high-upside prospect falls, the Spurs should at least consider using some of their assets to nab another potential cornerstone.
While there are not many doubts about what the Spurs will do with the second overall pick in the 2025 draft, there has been more uncertainty about their second lottery selection. Reports indicate that they might not use it at all, trading it away for veteran help instead, which would make sense.
A riskier but interesting option would be to trade up if someone falls, sending out future draft picks to secure another young cornerstone this year. Instead of using assets to land a veteran star like Kevin Durant, the Spurs can try to land a second high-upside prospect, and one could be available.
“He is the only player who has yet to conduct a single workout.”@ DraftExpress thinks that Ace Bailey might be sliding down the NBA draft board pic.twitter.com/aONUKiTHVW
— NBA on ESPN (@ ESPNNBA) June 18, 2025
Ace Bailey has refused to work out for teams other than the 76ers so far, and he could slide if Philadelphia picks another direction, according to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony. If that’s the case, he would be an interesting target.
Now, the concerns about Bailey go beyond workouts. He’s a risky prospect. He measured poorly at the combine compared to expectations, standing at closer to 6’8 instead of the 6’10 he was described as by Rutgers. His best trait is his scoring, but he wasn’t efficient in college, mostly because he was overreliant on his jumper. Ace made 34.6 of his threes and shot really well from mid-range, but he didn’t get to the line a lot and barely got to the rim. He floated in the perimeter partly because he didn’t have the ball handling to get inside consistently and was bothered by physicality. It’s not just his shot selection that needs improvement, but his overall decision-making, as shown by the fact that he actually had more turnovers than assists. He showed flashes on defense, using his length and athleticism well at times to block or bother shots, but he wasn’t consistent on a team that underachieved.
Will he work on fixing those flaws? That’s a big question, because he has a star’s mindset that could end up hurting his stock. His confidence in his own skills is what could scare teams away, including the Spurs. Bailey likely wants big minutes and a featured role right away because he believes he’s ready for it, according to Givony. His comments from the combine bear that out. His shot selection is a major cause for concern for teams, but he said that what might be a bad shot for others isn’t a bad shot for him.
“What might be a bad shot to you, you don’t work on it. I work on it.”
Ace Bailey with a quote on his tough shotmaking, and how he practices shots vs. double and triple teams. pic.twitter.com/9ZoqLYPV4c
— Chase Hughes (@ chasedcsports) May 15, 2025
When asked to name two strengths and a weakness, he said he has no weaknesses and more than two strengths.
Favorite part of our ESPN Combine broadcast interviews was easily Ace Bailey’s answer to Sean Farnham’s question.
“Ain’t got no weaknesses and I got more than two strengths big dog” pic.twitter.com/RTTUXzvOla
— Jonathan Givony (@ DraftExpress) May 16, 2025
There’s nothing wrong with confidence, but Bailey seems to lack self-awareness at this point. Again, he’s one of the youngest prospects in the draft, and his talent is undeniable, so it’s not hard to see why he might lack maturity but have bravado to spare. Plus, his shot-making really is special. It’s impossible to watch him hit some of those incredibly tough looks and not be mesmerized. The counter here would be that creating easy shots is much better than knocking down tough looks, but the postseason shows that you need guys who will just get a bucket when nothing else works. Ace is a master at it. The degree of difficulty of some of the shots he makes is so high that you often forget he’s the one who creates the hurdles. The upside is real. He could eventually become a star.
It would probably take him a while to get there, however, and he could benefit from the structure and lowered expectations that the Spurs can offer. Ace could slot in immediately as a floor spacer (38.7 percent on catch-and-shoot threes) while providing athleticism and energy on defense, like Kawhi Leonard did back in the day. The Silver and Black have other high-level young talent in tow, so the coaching staff could bring him along slowly, giving him freedom to utilize his shot-making while trying to help him refine his shot selection. If Harper is the pick with the second overall selection, reuniting the two former Rutgers stars could create a comfortable environment for both. Sliding down the draft could humble Bailey, and seeing San Antonio want him enough to move up to get him could make him appreciate the franchise.
The issue is that despite his flaws, there are teams that would be happy to draft him and keep him. For Bailey to the Spurs to be even slightly realistic, he’d have to fall past not only the 76ers but also franchises that need top-tier talent and have shown in the past they are not afraid to take risks, like the Wizards, Hornets, and Pelicans. At some point, raw skill and elite athleticism override concerns about maturity, so unless the worries increase, the price to trade up to get him could be too steep.
Still, the Spurs should at least explore the possibility of using their draft capital to pounce if Bailey or anyone else who could potentially become a part of their core suddenly drops or teams ahead of them appear open to trading down or out of the draft. Just as it was smart to move the eighth overall pick for future draft capital last year, it could be the play to target someone else in the lottery this year if others make their selections attainable. If some combination of young players and picks is in play for 37-year-old Durant, it’s rational to at least consider using some of those same assets to move up if the right prospect is available.
It’s unlikely the Spurs get Bailey. They might not even be interested in him, and there could be a bidding war for his services. Trading up from 14 could prove tricky. The most realistic scenarios involve San Antonio trading the pick for veteran help or keeping it and selecting the best player available on their big board.
If things get chaotic on draft night, however, it might not be the worst idea to be aggressive if someone slides and the opportunity to land a high-level young talent presents itself.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock