By Lee Dresie | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-06-19 02:13:06
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
我可能给步行者队带来了厄运……
好吧，我可能让步行者队输掉了这个系列赛。厄运的力量是巨大的，我本不该招惹命运。G4结束后，我曾评论道总决赛有幸看到两支健康的球队：
常规赛末段和季后赛初期都被顶级球员的严重伤病所笼罩。独行侠队的凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving)、雄鹿队的达米安·利拉德 (Damian Lillard)、勇士队的斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)，以及最具毁灭性的，卫冕冠军凯尔特人队的杰森·塔图姆 (Jason Tatum)。 但本次总决赛尚未受到伤病困扰，两队轮换球员都保持健康 。
随后，步行者队的最佳球员泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 在G5开局便受伤。尽管他试图带伤上阵，但状态明显受到了影响，全场一分未得。他确实采纳了我的建议，四次站上罚球线（前四场比赛总共只有三次），但全场仅有的得分就是这四个罚球。然后，周二的头条新闻宣布，哈利伯顿将在G6前对右小腿进行核磁共振检查。虽然核磁共振是一项惊人的技术，但在NBA总决赛的关键时刻，你绝不希望你的最佳球员需要这项技术。
即使步行者队决定哈利伯顿可以出战，他也不会是完全健康的状态，并且有遭受更严重伤病的风险。自从步行者队在G4第三节末段曾领先10分以来，局势无疑已经彻底改变。
我之前的文章还提到，雷霆队在G4进攻篮板和失误方面占据优势，为他们带来了7次额外的进攻机会：
在G4中，雷霆队在41次投失的球中抢到了12个进攻篮板——一个大致正常的29%。但步行者队在46次投失的球中只抢到7个进攻篮板：一个糟糕透顶的15%。换句话说，这为雷霆队带来了5次额外进攻机会。雷霆队还少了2次失误，总共获得了7次额外进攻机会——在一场势均力敌的比赛中，这是一个巨大的差距。
值得注意的是，这7次额外的进攻机会最终促成了雷霆队以7分获胜。
这也预示了G5中发生的一切。虽然进攻篮板数几乎相同（步行者18个，雷霆19个），但步行者队在失误方面惨败。他们有22次失误，而雷霆队只有12次，相差10次。再加上雷霆多抢的1个进攻篮板，他们总共多出了11次进攻机会。每次进攻机会通常价值约1分——而最终比分是120-109，一个11分的分差。数学有时就是这么奇妙。
除了失误，其他关键数据都相当接近。步行者队整体命中率稍高（45%对43%），尽管雷霆队通过更高的三分命中率（44%对37%）抵消了这一优势。罚球方面基本持平——步行者30罚24中，雷霆32罚26中。所以，本段的关键词再次是前三个字：“除了失误”。这也是为什么教练们无论何时都痛恨失误的原因。步行者队的许多失误都发生在第一节，导致该节结束时就出现了10分的分差——几乎与比赛结束时的分差相同。
我G4评论中的这段话，引发了我与我的篮球专家朋友莱恩 (Ryan) 的一番讨论：
亚历山大命中了一些关键投篮（包括那个反超比分的投篮，看起来既有推人犯规也有走步）。
我们的讨论集中在我评论中关于推人犯规的部分。我们一致认为，进攻球员的推人犯规会制造不公平优势，从而扭曲比赛。允许这种推人犯规意味着防守球员在做正确防守的情况下，仍会被推出他的合法防守位置，从而为投篮创造出所需的空间。我们都知道，如果防守球员将进攻球员撞退三英尺，那肯定会吹罚犯规。莱恩还指出，如果防守球员试图通过前移来缩小距离，回到他刚才被挤出的合法防守位置，投篮者可以通过向前跳入他因推人而创造出的同一空间来制造身体接触。同样，我们都知道谁会被吹犯规——即便进攻球员是以非法推人开始这一系列动作的。我过去常常问裁判：“你希望我的球员怎么做？”在我多年的执教生涯中，我从未得到过一个满意的答复。
观看比赛时，感觉雷霆队几乎全程占据主导地位，因为他们一路领先，大部分时间都保持着最初的10分领先优势。然而，雷霆队在最后三节“仅”赢了1分，比分为88-87。而且那还是在亚历山大和杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 合力贡献71分的情况下，而哈利伯顿要么在更衣室接受治疗，要么坐在替补席上，要么在场上但一球未中。
这是否意味着步行者队在哈利伯顿状态不佳的情况下（或甚至完全没有哈利伯顿的情况下）仍能与雷霆队抗衡？步行者队将在主场作战，球馆里坐满了呐喊助威的印第安纳球迷，他们将努力延续自己的赛季。雷霆队可能没有那么强的紧迫感，因为他们知道即使输掉这场比赛，他们仍将在抢七大战中拥有主场优势。每个人都喜欢抢七大战。正如我在G4后所说：
我真的希望这轮系列赛能打到抢七。 除非步行者队今晚在雷霆主场偷走G5的胜利。如果那样，我希望总决赛能以六场比赛结束，在步行者队的主场观众面前。印第安纳人。
现在我真的真的希望这轮系列赛能打到抢七。步行者加油！
点击查看原文：Viewing Game Five through the lens of my Game Four Thoughts
Viewing Game Five through the lens of my Game Four Thoughts
I may or may not have jinxed the Pacers…
Well, I might have cost the Pacers the series. Jinxes are powerful things, and I should not have tempted fate. After Game Four, I commented on how the Finals were blessed with two healthy teams:
The latter part of the regular season and the early playoffs were dominated by serious injuries to top players. Kyrie Irving for the Mavs, Dame Lillard with the Bucks, Steph Curry on the Warriors and most devastating, Jason Tatum on the defending champion Celtics. But these Finals have not yet been cursed by the injury bug as both teams’ rotation players are all healthy.
The Pacers’ best player, Tyrese Haliburton, then hurt himself at the start of Game Five. While he tried to return, he was clearly compromised, not making a single basket in the game. He did take my advice and got to the free throw line four times (after three in total over the first four games), but those four made free throws were the only points he scored. Then, Tuesday’s headline announced that Haliburton would be getting an MRI on his right calf before Game Six. While the MRI is an amazing piece of technology, you don’t want your best player to need that amazing technology in the middle of the NBA Finals.
Even if the Pacers decide Haliburton can play, he will not be at full strength and in danger of a more serious injury. Things have certainly changed since the Pacers led by ten near the end of the third quarter in Game Four.
My previous post also talked about how the Thunder’s edge in offensive rebounds and turnovers in Game Four led to seven extra possessions for OKC:
In Game Four, OKC had 12 offensive rebounds on its 41 missed shots — a normal-ish 29%. But the Pacers had only 7 offensive boards on 46 missed shots: an atrocious 15%. Put another way, that gave OKC five extra possessions. OKC also had two fewer turnovers, for a total of seven extra possessions — a big difference in a close game.
Note that those seven extra possessions led to a seven point Thunder win.
This was also a precursor to what happened in Game Five. While offensive rebounding was almost identical (18 for Indiana, 19 for OKC), the Pacers badly lost the turnover battle. They had 22, while OKC only had 12, a difference of 10. Add the one extra offensive rebound, and the Thunder had 11 extra possessions. Each possession is generally worth about a point — and the final score was 120-109, an 11 point spread. Funny how math works sometimes.
Other than turnovers, the other important numbers were fairly close. The Pacers shot a bit better overall (45% to 43%), although the Thunder neutralized that advantage by shooting a better from three (44% to 37%). Free throws were basically a wash — the Pacers shot 80% on 30 attempts, the Thunder shot 81% on 32 attempts. So once again, the key words in this paragraph were the first three: “other than turnovers”. Which is why coaches hate turnovers, whenever they happen. Many of the Pacers’ turnovers happened in the first quarter, leading to a ten point spread at the end of that quarter — virtually the same spread as the end of the game.
This comment from my Game Four thoughts led to a discussion with my buddy and basketball savant Ryan:
SGA made some big shots (including the go-ahead shot on what looked like both a push-off and a travel).
Our discussion focused on the push-off part of my comment. We agreed that an offensive player’s push-off creates an unfair advantage which warps the game. Allowing the push-off means that a defensive player who is doing everything right is nonetheless dislodged from his legal guarding position, creating the separation necessary to get the shot off*.* We all know a foul would be called if the defender knocked the offensive player back three feet. Ryan also pointed out that if the defender attempts to close the gap by moving forward, back into the legal guarding position he was just shoved out of, the shooter can create contact by jumping forward into the same space his push-off created. Again, we all know who gets the foul — even though the offensive player started the sequence with the illegal push-off. I used to ask referees “What did you want my guy to do differently?” In all my years of coaching, I never received a satisfactory answer.
Watching the game, it felt like the Thunder dominated almost throughout because they led the entire way, much of the time by that initial ten-point lead. However, the Thunder “won” the last three quarters by only one point, 88-87. And that was while SGA and Jalen Williams were combining for 71 points, with Haliburton either in the locker room getting treatment, on the bench, or on the court but not making a single shot.
Does this mean the Pacers may be able to compete with OKC without an effective Haliburton (or no Haliburton at all)? The Pacers will be at home with an arena filled with screaming Hoosiers, trying to keep their season alive. OKC might not have the same sense of urgency, knowing that even if they lose, they will they have home court for Game Seven. And everyone likes a Game Seven. As I said after Game Four:
I really hope this goes to seven games. Unless the Pacers steal Game Five in OKC tonight. If that happens, I hope the Finals end in six, in front of the Pacers’ home crowd. Hoosiers.
Now I really really hope this goes to seven games. Go Pacers.
By Lee Dresie, via Pounding The Rock