By Son Q. Trinh | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-06-16 05:00:07
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
蒂姆·邓肯 (Tim Duncan) 的球员模板就是蒂姆·邓肯本人。
在篮球比赛中，你争胜，但别赢得太多。
杰基·穆恩 (Jackie Moon)： “我们争取赢，但别赢太多。”
特维吉·蒙森 (Twiggy Munson)： “等等，我们不想赢太多？”
杰基·穆恩 (Jackie Moon)： “嗯，对。”
莫尼克斯 (Monix)： “你到底在说什么鬼话？”
克拉伦斯·威瑟斯 (Clarence Withers) 又名 安德烈·本杰明 (André Benjamin) 又名 安德烈3000 (André 3000)： “玉米热狗。”
莫尼克斯 (Monix)： “什么？”
克拉伦斯 (Clarence) 又名 安德烈·本杰明 (André Benjamin) 又名 安德烈3000 (André 3000) 又名 格莱美奖和MTV欧洲音乐奖获奖嘻哈组合Outkast的半壁江山： “你看，如果我们得了125分，就意味着我们得给这里的每个人都发一个免费玉米热狗，对吧？”
杰基·穆恩 (Jackie Moon)： “是的，抱歉，莫尼克斯，我们连玉米热狗都没有！我们不能放松点吗？拖拖时间？那可是好多玉米热狗啊！”
在2008年的美国经典电影《灌篮大帝》（我说的这话是认真的，不能再认真了）中，球队老板、主教练、首发大前锋兼赛前播报员杰基·穆恩，在经营一支职业篮球队时，做出了许多既滑稽又古怪的事——无论是在字面意义上还是财务上。
最终，杰基·穆恩所做的一切，都只为能让他的挚爱球队留在密歇根州弗林特市。这就像《棒球大联盟》，但中场休息时有活熊摔跤。有时候，NBA老板和NBA联盟也会以赢球之名做出古怪的事情。
打造一支常胜之师并非一门精确的科学，但在篮球领域，其容错率极低。国家橄榄球联盟 (NFL) 拥有最多53名球员的现役名单，每次只能派11名球员上场；美国职业棒球大联盟 (MLB) 的现役名单有26名球员，但在投球或击球时只有9名球员在场。相比之下，NBA赛季期间总共只有15名现役球员，每次实战中只有5名球员上场。当然，橄榄球和棒球拥有超级专业化的位置（四分卫、进攻截锋、外接手、投手、捕手、外野手等），而篮球位置则更具流动性，没那么严格（你不会看到一个进攻截锋站到外侧跑“邮差路线”，除非杰里·琼斯 (Jerry Jones) 真的已经放弃了，并且试图避免在达拉斯牛仔队主场送出9万个玉米热狗）。
因此，NBA名单规模较小意味着，在球队建设方面，尤其是通过选秀，球队的总经理和球探们承担不起选秀乐透签“打水漂”的后果——相比之下，例如NFL的克利夫兰布朗队在仅仅两个赛季前还能打进季后赛，尽管他们拥有一位在2008年被选中的首发四分卫！大量的资金、时间和数据被投入到NBA选秀中，以选择一名能拯救或葬送一支球队的球员。
迈克尔·麦克尔维 (Michael MacKelvie) 深入研究了现代NBA乐透选秀流程中的球员预测和结果，并提出了球队选秀能力是否正在下降的疑问。
简而言之，麦克尔维指出NBA选秀效率有所下降：他认为2000年的最佳阵容中，只有2名球员不是前十顺位选中的（科比·布莱恩特 (Kobe Bryant) 和卡尔·马龙 (Karl Malone)，他们都是总第13顺位被选中），而2025年的最佳阵容中，有7名球员不是前十顺位选中的（扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)、尼古拉·约基奇 (Nikola Jokić)、萨盖·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)、多诺万·米切尔 (Donovan Mitchell)、杰伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)、杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton)）。当然，这本身只是一个小样本，但麦克尔维用图表阐述了他的理论并发现了相关性：随着时间的推移，来自前十顺位的NBA明星球员越来越少。我也会认为国际球员的增加和“大一即走”规则无疑对这一趋势产生了影响，但这些发现仍然令人着迷。
该视频的核心论点是，尽管有更多的资源、数据以及历史数据或历史经验（如果迈克尔·乔丹 (Michael Jordan) 作为总经理看中某个球员，务必谨慎），但更多的明星球员在选秀后期被发现。这一点很难反驳，因为在过去二十年里，联盟中涌现出更多前十顺位之外被选中的明星（如扬尼斯·阿德托昆博、科怀·莱昂纳德 (Kawhi Leonard)），甚至在第二轮有更多明星（仅仅列举几个：马努·吉诺比利 (Manu Ginóbili)、尼古拉·约基奇、德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green)、吉尔伯特·阿里纳斯 (Gilbert Arenas)、马克·加索尔 (Marc Gasol) 和克里斯·米德尔顿 (Khris Middleton)）。
如果看起来我恰好挑选了圣安东尼奥马刺队两名最伟大的“沧海遗珠”选秀，那么先生女士，您该得一个免费玉米热狗。当然，球员发展、球队环境、教练指导等因素都是决定一名球员能否达到超级巨星水平的重要原因。而有些东西是无法简单衡量的（心理韧性、专注度、求胜欲）。
另一个因素是比赛方式的变化。三分球出手次数被更多地强调，甚至可以说是硬性要求（参考波士顿凯尔特人队），这改变了球队寻找的球员类型：一个身高7英尺4英寸、臂展8英尺、能投篮的运动员，并且自我规定晚上9点宵禁，这样TMZ体育永远也抓不到这位运动员卷入古怪的宝可梦集换式卡牌丑闻？我想那是每一个NBA总经理的梦想。
请记住，只有NBA进行选秀乐透抽签（咳咳，2025年达拉斯独行侠队，猛烈咳嗽）。其他联盟将状元签或高顺位选秀权授予战绩最差的球队，而不会像NBA那样，通过乒乓球抽签，或让某个NBA总经理的孩子、表亲的网约车司机代表球队，在选秀结果宣布前对着镜头微笑，从而增加变数。选秀乐透抽签的理念是促进竞争平衡和防止摆烂，但这完全可以拍成一部由威尔·法瑞尔 (Will Ferrell) 和凯文·科斯特纳 (Kevin Costner) 主演的潜在体育电影，应该被拍出来并留待日后讨论。
不多深入讨论这篇有趣文章的内容，但它绝对值得一看，让人们思考NBA球队在选择那些能够改变球队命运的有价值球员时，可能做对了什么，又可能做错了什么。有时候，你只需关闭电脑，直接选择蒂姆·邓肯。另一些时候，你则需要冒险选择那位瘦小的、胳膊肘很犀利的阿根廷人。
点击查看原文：NBA Drafts: Are teams getting better or worse at selecting the next star player?
NBA Drafts: Are teams getting better or worse at selecting the next star player?
Tim Duncan’s player comp was Tim Duncan.
In basketball, you play to win–but not by too much.
Jackie Moon: “Let’s try to win, but not win by too much.”
Twiggy Munson: “Wait, we don’t want to win by too much?”
Jackie Moon: “Nuh uh.”
Monix: “What the hell are you talking about?”
Clarence Withers a/k/a André Benjamin a/k/a André 3000: “Corn dogs.”
Monix: “What?”
Clarence a/k/a André Benjamin a/k/a André 3000 a/k/a one-half of the Grammy-winning, MTV Europe Music Awards winning hip-hip duo Outkast: “See if we score 125 points that means we got to give everybody in here a free corn dog, right?
Jackie Moon: “Yeah sorry Monix, we don’t even got corn dogs! Can’t we just take it easy? Run the clock out? We’re talking a lot of corn dogs!”
In the 2008 American classic film Semi-Pro (and I say that with as much seriousness as a humanly possible), team owner, head coach, starting power forward, and pre-game announcer, Jackie Moon, does some hilarious and weird things while running a professional basketball team—literally and financially.
In the end, all Jackie Moon wants to do is keep his beloved team in Flint, Michigan. It’s like Major League, but with live bear wrestling at halftime. And sometimes, NBA owners and the NBA do weird things in the name of winning.
Building a winning team is not an exact science, but in basketball that margin of error is razor thin. The NFL has an active roster of 53 maximum players that sends only 11 players to the field while the MLB’s active roster size is 26 players with only 9 players fielded during pitching or hitting. In contrast, the NBA only has 15 total active players during the season while sending out 5 players onto the court during live play. Sure, football and baseball have uber specialized positions (quarterback, offensive tackle, wide receiver, pitcher, catcher, outfielder, etc.) and basketball positions can be more fluid and not as stringent as the other sports (you won’t see an offensive tackle line up wide to run a post route unless Jerry Jones has really given up and is trying to avoid giving away 90k corn dogs at Cowboys Stadium).
For that reason, the smaller NBA roster means that when it comes to team building, especially through the draft, teams’ GMs and scouts cannot afford to whiff on a lottery pick—compared to say the NFL where teams like the Cleveland Browns can still make the playoffs just 2 seasons ago despite having a starting quarterback that was drafted in 2008! A lot of money, time, and data is poured into the NBA draft to select a player that will either save or sink a franchise.
Michael MacKelvie took a deep dive into player projections and outcomes in the modern NBA lottery process and posed the thought of whether teams are getting worse at drafting.
In short, MacKelvie stated that the NBA draft has become less efficient: He posits that the All-NBA Team in 2000 only had 2 players not drafted in the top 10 (Kobe Bryant and Karl Malone, who were both drafted 13th overall) compared to the All-NBA Team in 2025 that had 7 players who were not drafted in the top 10 (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Jalen Williams, and Tyrese Haliburton). Of course, this is a small sample in of itself, but MacKelvie graphed out his theory and found a correlation that over time, less NBA stars are coming from the top ten picks. I would also think that the increase of international players and the “One-and-Done” rule certainly have an effect on this trend, but the findings are fascinating.
The main argument of the clip is that despite more resources, data, and historical data or historical wisdom (if Michael Jordan the GM likes a certain player, proceed with caution), more star players are found later in the draft. It’s hard to refute this when in the past two decades the league is seeing more stars drafted outside of the top ten (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard) and even more stars in the second round (Manu Ginóbili, Nikola Jokić, Draymond Green, Gilbert Arenas, Marc Gasol, and Khris Middleton to name a few).
If it seemed like I conveniently cherry picked two of the San Antonio Spurs’ greatest “diamond in the rough” draft picks, then you sir or madam deserve a free corn dog. Of course factors like player development, team environment, coaching, etc. are all important reasons a player might or might not succeed at a superstar level. And some things cannot simply be measured (mental fortitude, focus, competitive drive).
Another factor is how the game has changed. Three-point attempts are emphasized more, if not outright required (see the Boston Celtics), and that changes what type of players teams are looking for: a 7-foot-4 inch athlete with an 8-foot wingspan that can shoot, and has a self-imposed 9 o’clock curfew so TMZ Sports will never catch said athlete out in a weird Pokémon trading card scandal? I think that’s every NBA GM’s dream.
Keep in mind that only the NBA does a draft lottery (cough, 2025 Dallas Mavericks, violent cough). The other leagues award top picks to the team with the worst records without adding variance to the equation like ping-pong balls and some NBA GM’s kid’s cousin’s Lyft driver representing the team, smiling on camera before the pick is announced. The idea of the draft lottery is to promote competitive balance and prevent tanking, but that’s a whole Will Ferrell/Kevin Costner potential sports movie that should be made and discussed for another day.
Without stepping too much onto the work done in this interesting piece, it’s definitely worth a watch to think about what NBA teams might be doing right or wrong in selecting valuable players who could change the course of a franchise. Sometimes, you can just shut down the computer and select Tim Duncan. Other times, you take a gamble on the skinny Argentinian with sharp elbows.
By Son Q. Trinh, via Pounding The Rock