By Jeremy Woo | ESPN, 2025-06-07 19:30:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
又是一年，我们回来为ESPN预测的2025年NBA选秀乐透区新秀们进行职业球员对比，本届选秀将于6月25日至26日举行（美国东部时间晚8点，ABC和ESPN直播）。
如果运用得当，这通常是一个很有用的练习。但知易行难，因为这个过程往往会引发夸张的言辞。
我们此处的目的并非为14位预测乐透秀中的每一位画出完美的对比——那我们肯定会出错。这项练习旨在提供一个视角，思考新秀未来的角色，审视其潜在结果的范围，并考虑哪些发展领域对其长期成功至关重要。
这种思考方式有助于从概念层面进行球员评估，并设想新秀的特点如何契合某支特定球队。
考虑到这一点，并且距离选秀大会仅剩几周时间，让我们看看每位预计在前14顺位被选中的新秀的高上限和低下限模板，另外还有一个被球队视为潜在乐透秀的额外选择。
更多NBA选秀报道：
[选秀状元签的最佳交易报价？](Best trade offer for the No. 1 pick?)
[模拟选秀：弗拉格加盟独行侠等](Mock draft: Flagg to the Mavs and more)
1. 库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，小前锋/大前锋，杜克大学
模拟选秀预测： 独行侠状元签 | 百大新秀榜： 第1位
高上限： 杰森·塔图姆 (Jayson Tatum) 加上更出色的防守
低下限： 安德烈·伊戈达拉 (Andre Iguodala) 加上更出色的进攻
弗拉格是公认的状元热门人选，这有充分的理由：无论从数据还是经验来看，他都有望成为NBA顶级侧翼之一。整个赛季，包括NBA高管在内，一直在问一个问题：弗拉格能达到怎样的高度？他全面的进攻和出色的防守为这位即将进入联盟的18岁球员提供了令人难以置信的基础多功能性，独行侠队应该能在下赛季充分发挥其优势。联盟中有些人将他比作现代的斯科蒂·皮蓬 (Scottie Pippen)，而弗拉格本人则表示他以塔图姆为榜样，塔图姆是他的偶像。
如果弗拉格在自主进攻方面继续取得进展——他已在中距离展现出舒适度，但仍需打磨——那么塔图姆式的得分飞跃可能性是存在的。在过去几年中，他在这方面有所进步，远距离投篮变得更加自如，这为他未来在即兴发挥和持球进攻方面的成长留下了乐观空间。如果他未能发展成为真正的第一进攻选择，他或许最适合作为一名得分型队友身边的第二球星。
虽然弗拉格的进攻贡献预计会高于伊戈达拉（其职业生涯从未突破场均20分大关），但这一对比说明了他除了自主得分外，还能通过其他方式贡献价值。正如大多数这类对比一样，最可能的结果通常介于两者之间。就他而言，其潜力范围对于NBA评估者来说更多是令人兴奋，而非令人焦虑。
2. 迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，控球后卫/得分后卫，罗格斯大学
模拟选秀预测： 马刺榜眼签 | 百大新秀榜： 第2位
高上限： 更高大的贾伦·布伦森 (Jalen Brunson)
低下限： 丹吉洛·拉塞尔 (D’Angelo Russell)
哈珀结合了身材、力量、得分和组织能力，使他成为一名极具吸引力的职业前景，在最佳情况下，他拥有作为一名高使用率球星来领导进攻的技术。尽管哈珀的身材（1.98米，97公斤）应该让他成为防守端更有价值的球员，但从宏观角度来看，布伦森的模板是合理的：两人都依靠技巧、制造身体对抗和攻击角度来瓦解防守。布伦森在离开维拉诺瓦大学时是一名更好的三分射手，这一点哈珀需要随着时间推移加以提升，才能最大化自己的潜力。但存在一种可能性，他能达到那个水平，并成为一名基石球员和进攻核心。
哈珀较高的下限，部分归因于他在持球方面的身材优势，是其吸引力的重要组成部分——他的优势组合使得他很难无法适应NBA。在预测他的低下限结果时，他仍有很大几率成为一名合格的首发级别球员。他可能最终成为一名普通射手，并且根据过往倾向，他的防守影响力可能不稳定。这些可能性会限制他作为第一或第二进攻选择对球队赢球的影响，但他的打法仍能有效降低角色（依然发挥作用）。
拉塞尔是2015年的榜眼秀，并在第四个赛季入选全明星，他一直是一名高效球员，但他仍未弄清楚如何带领一支球队持续赢球。哈珀应该能很快发挥作用，但他的职业生涯如何发展将取决于环境和持续进步。
3. 埃斯·贝利 (Ace Bailey)，得分后卫/小前锋，罗格斯大学
模拟选秀预测： 76人探花签 | 百大新秀榜： 第3位
高上限： 迈克尔·波特 (Michael Porter Jr.)
低下限： 安德鲁·威金斯 (Andrew Wiggins)
贝利是本届选秀中最具活力的投篮手，这项技能充分展现了他巨大的得分潜力。主要的长期问题在于他将如何驾驭它，因为贝利的其他技术仍在发展中。他拥有足够的身材，可以在多数防守者头上拔起投篮，擅长在失去平衡时投篮，并且投篮手感出色，有望成为优秀的接球投射手。
但他并非天生富有创造力的持球手，他倾向于运球中断并仓促出手，而不是穿梭于防守之间，这使得他的打法有时可预测，但并非总是容易防守。
指望贝利发展出组织能力和持球技术以保证高持球使用率是困难的，这使得波特成为一个有趣的对比球员。作为2018年密苏里大学的选秀前景，波特在传球和持球技术方面也有类似的疑问，而他受益于加盟丹佛掘金队，在那里他的投射能力通过周围组织者的支持得到了最大化，并且他没有被要求走出舒适区担任创造者。
很容易想象贝利在这种环境中，作为第二或第三得分点，其效率和比赛将积极转变，但在这个生涯阶段，很难看出他能成为真正的第一进攻选择。如果这从未发生，他的职业生涯可能更接近威金斯，后者在其整个职业生涯中都是一名高效得分手，但并非总是胜利篮球的辅助。
4. 维杰·埃奇科姆 (VJ Edgecombe)，得分后卫，贝勒大学
模拟选秀预测： 黄蜂第4顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第4位
高上限： 维克托·奥拉迪波 (Victor Oladipo)
低下限： 杰登·艾维 (Jaden Ivey)
埃奇科姆的核心卖点主要在于他有望发展成为一名合格的持球创造者，他的速度、力量和顶级爆发力可以在进攻端最大化地给防守带来麻烦。
无论他最终落脚何处，让他获得所需的出场机会以实现这一飞跃将是第一步，但他那种突破迅猛、运动能力超强的切入型球员类型，使得奥拉迪波成为一个有效的参照点。奥拉迪波花了一些时间才在NBA站稳脚跟，并在第五个赛季（2017-18）全面爆发，之后2019年的膝伤阻碍了他的职业生涯。他们的打法和进入联盟时的轨迹有一些相似之处，包括需要发展出更稳定的外线投篮和提升持球创造进攻的能力。
如果一切顺利，埃奇科姆拥有全明星的潜力。虽然鉴于他可能需要进行调整才能最大化其身体天赋，其潜力伴随风险，但也很容易看出他由于作为一名能量充沛的外线防守者和转换进攻球员的潜在价值而拥有扎实的下限。
艾维的对比有点棘手，因为这位底特律活塞队的后卫本身仍在发展中，但上赛季他在一月份受伤前开始渐入佳境。这类需要学习如何做出正确持球决策的切入型后卫通常需要时间才能取得成功。
埃奇科姆在进攻端的表现范围可能相当广泛，但最坏情况下，他仍应该是一名非常有用的后场贡献者——这增加了他作为前五顺位选秀的吸引力。
5. 杰里迈亚·费尔斯 (Jeremiah Fears)，控球后卫，俄克拉荷马大学
模拟选秀预测： 爵士第5顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第7位
高上限： 蒙塔·埃利斯 (Monta Ellis)
低下限： 杰里德·贝勒斯 (Jerryd Bayless)
费尔斯的技术特点具有有趣的风格元素，这使得他是一个难以比较的模板。他突破迅猛，以比同身高后卫更大胆、更巧妙的方式冲击内线，但他并非一个历史上出色的三分射手（上赛季在俄克拉荷马大学三分命中率为28.4%），这使得他成为一种复古的基础类型球员。
考虑到他的年龄（18岁）以及在“俄克拉荷马大学捷足者队”取得的进步，费尔斯有机会成为一名危险的得分手和组织者，但很大程度上取决于他能否保持高效。要么他的外线投篮必须进步——考虑到他出色的罚球命中率（上赛季85.1%），这是可以预期的——要么他的内线得分能力必须足够出色，以支撑他其他方面的比赛。
尽管这要追溯到十年前左右，但埃利斯是一个有趣的风格对比，他是一名个子较小的高产量得分手和创造者，职业生涯大部分时间都受困于失误和不稳定的远距离投篮。费尔斯当然有可能超越他，但指望他成为顶级跳投高手可能是一大步，尽管他应该随着力量和经验的增长而进步。如果这没有发生，他可能最终更像贝勒斯——长期作为替补席上的双能卫得分手，考虑到球队需要在选秀夜如此高顺位选中他，这带来了一些培养风险。
费尔斯天赋异禀的闪光点留下了乐观的空间，但考虑到所有需要他把握的各种因素才能成为一名球星，其结果范围相当广泛。
6. 特雷·约翰逊 (Tre Johnson)，得分后卫，德克萨斯大学
模拟选秀预测： 奇才第6顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第5位
高上限： 迈克尔·里德 (Michael Redd)
低下限： 更高大的凯姆·托马斯 (Cam Thomas)
约翰逊是一个相当容易理解的潜力股。他很可能会投篮出色；他可能会投很多篮；而他未来能为球队贡献的其他一切都将是锦上添花，不一定纳入他们的期望。
约翰逊干净利落且紧凑的投篮动作将使他成为远距离威胁，他已展现出持球投篮的能力，拥有作为高产量得分手所需的无畏精神，但有时这也会导致他陷入投篮选择的困境。他在内线的效率和终结能力也需要提升。
如果约翰逊能够接近里德的职业生涯（尽管里德在2000年代初期的巅峰最终在2009年因严重膝伤而受挫），那将是一个相当出色的结果，并且两人有一些相似之处。里德成为了他那个时代最顶尖的三分射手之一，并承担了繁重任务，这更多是由于他非正统投篮的威胁而非其他。值得强调的是，约翰逊在同龄阶段远超里德（后者在俄亥俄州立大学的三分命中率生涯仅为31.9%，是一名二轮秀）。约翰逊的投篮动作更流畅，潜力更稳健。
合理预期约翰逊可以发展成为一名充满活力的高产量射手——问题是他能否高效地做到这一点，以及他能否在赢球的环境中做到。这些与托马斯职业生涯四年（2021-25）中展现出的类似倾向所困扰的价值问题是相似的。
7. 卡曼·马卢瓦奇 (Khaman Maluach)，中锋，杜克大学
模拟选秀预测： 鹈鹕第7顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第6位
高上限： 更迅速的鲁迪·戈贝尔 (Rudy Gobert)
低下限： 更高大的丹尼尔·加福德 (Daniel Gafford)
马卢瓦奇完美契合了护筐、吃饼型中锋的模板，这种类型在过去几十年NBA的各种风格转变中仍保持价值。他仍在学习比赛和提升防守习惯；他纯粹的身材在内线起到威慑作用，对于他2.18米的身高来说，移动能力高于平均水平，这预示着巨大的防守潜力。马卢瓦奇是一名高效的终结者，但在进攻其他方面受限，他最终可能在他这类球员中达到顶级水平。
虽然戈贝尔对于护筐型七尺长人来说是一个有点显而易见的模板，但在这里，它揭示了马卢瓦奇的潜力，他有望在赢球环境中成为重要的防守支柱。他当然并非板上钉钉能达到NBA年度最佳防守球员级别的高度，但他目前提供的能力具有保障，加上可行的提升空间，特别是如果他能增加三分投篮。
马卢瓦奇作为一名有用的贡献者，其下限无论如何都非常稳固：拥有他那样纯粹的身材尺寸、高于平均水平的移动能力和角色意识的中锋——例如与加福德的对比——往往能在联盟中找到自己的位置。
8. 康·克努佩尔 (Kon Knueppel)，得分后卫/小前锋，杜克大学
模拟选秀预测： 篮网第8顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第8位
高上限： 德斯蒙德·贝恩 (Desmond Bane)
低下限： 乔·哈里斯 (Joe Harris)
克努佩尔有理由成为本届选秀中最好的射手，但正是他全面进攻的广度使他有望进入前五顺位。NBA球队对克努佩尔在杜克大学的决策和传球智慧感到惊喜，在那里他成功扮演了重要的角色，需要他高水平地组织进攻和拉开空间。他平均的运动能力——他不是特别快或敏捷——是预测中的主要担忧，如果他无法创造出顶级进攻，可能会限制他的一些上限。
贝恩在2020年从德克萨斯基督教大学毕业时是一名被低估的选秀前景，他在那里生涯三分命中率为43.2%，但被认为是一名运动能力平平、臂展较短、缺乏巨大潜力的球员。他迅速超越了这些预期，在第二个赛季就成为灰熊队的关键球员，孟菲斯队投入到他的技术中，并相信他能成为不仅仅是3D球员，给予他组织进攻和承担更多责任的机会。尽管他不会像贝恩那样出其不意，但克努佩尔的最佳情况也符合这些特质。
考虑到克努佩尔的年龄（他8月3日满20岁，而贝恩在大学打了四年），在合适的情况下，他的职业生涯巅峰可能超越贝恩，这增加了NBA球队对他未来的乐观态度。如果他作为一名值得大量持球的投篮创造者未能完全发挥，克努佩尔仍应该是一名顶级射手，以次要角色在强队中贡献有价值的出场时间，类似于哈里斯。
9. 科林·穆雷-博伊尔斯 (Collin Murray-Boyles)，大前锋/中锋，南卡罗来纳大学
模拟选秀预测： 猛龙第9顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第14位
高上限： 阿尔·霍福德 (Al Horford)
低下限： 泽维尔·蒂尔曼 (Xavier Tillman)
穆雷-博伊尔斯有望成为一名前场的多功能球员，凭借他聪明的传球、利用臂展防守多个位置、以及身体素质和强硬度，他可以在进攻端覆盖场上任意位置。最大化他的潜力取决于他有待提高的三分球能力；如果他能从外线构成威胁，这将有助于弥补他在大前锋位置上身高不足的问题。
如果他的投篮能力发展起来，穆雷-博伊尔斯最终可能发展成现代霍福德式的球员——一名全能内线，能作为防守支柱并在进攻端提供辅助作用，对赢球至关重要。
如果穆雷-博伊尔斯在NBA层面完全停滞不前——考虑到他的年龄（他6月10日满20岁）和发展轨迹，这不太可能——他仍应该能作为一名有用的替补球员在球队名单中占据一席之地，类似于蒂尔曼，后者拥有一些与他相似的内在优势，但在密歇根州立大学毕业时年龄更大且移动能力远不如他。
10. 卡斯帕拉斯·雅库乔尼斯 (Kasparas Jakucionis)，控球后卫，伊利诺伊大学
模拟选秀预测： 火箭第10顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第10位
高上限： 奥斯汀·里夫斯 (Austin Reaves)
低下限： 德隆·莱特 (Delon Wright)
雅库乔尼斯是一名精明的组织者，作为一名1.98米的后卫，他拥有持球的本能和技术水平，并且投篮手感在提升。他依靠节奏、时机和即兴发挥，而非顶级速度，擅长挡拆情况，打法无私，这将使他无论是否发展成为全职控球后卫都能取得成功。他必须提升控球安全性（场均3.7次失误）和三分投篮（31.8%），但他在伊利诺伊大学繁重的角色要求他承担风险，并导致了一些效率低下。
合理预期雅库乔尼斯将获得与里夫斯相似的评价，后者是另一位巧妙的双能卫，他们有风格上的相似之处。里夫斯进入NBA时年龄更大，并在短时间内成为洛杉矶湖人队的主力。雅库乔尼斯可能需要更长时间，但他在同龄阶段远超里夫斯（后者在大学打了四年，从俄克拉荷马大学毕业后落选）。
在最坏情况下，他全能的技术和打两个后卫位置的能力仍应该保证他在NBA长期担任替补。
11. 叶戈尔·杰明 (Egor Demin)，控球后卫/得分后卫，杨百翰大学
模拟选秀预测： 开拓者第11顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第11位
高上限： 德尼·阿夫迪亚 (Deni Avdija) 和 约什·吉迪 (Josh Giddey)
低下限： 凯尔·安德森 (Kyle Anderson)
杰明作为一名大号组织者所带来的吸引力和纯粹天赋一目了然，他拥有本届选秀中传球视野最佳的球员。这类球员备受欢迎，NBA球队渴望外线拥有能适应多种角色的身材和球感。
杰明的预测有两个关键因素：他能获得多少持球时间以及他的远距离投篮稳定性。他慢于平均水平的脚步速度和不稳定的三分投射带来了一些风险因素。他无法快速持球创造进攻，需要通过投篮让防守者忌惮，才能最大化他获得出场时间的途径。
尽管并非完美的对比，但吉迪（一名历史上投篮低于平均水平，最擅长持球组织进攻的球员）和阿夫迪亚（过去几个赛季中，他已确立自己作为一名多技能无球前锋的地位）可以用来揭示杰明最终可能适应的不同角色。他是否能够扮演准控球后卫，或者在无球时作为连接点贡献更多价值，仍有待观察，但这两种途径都取决于他的发展情况。
如果他的发展停滞，无法进入主要轮换，他仍可以提供长期有用的替补深度，类似于安德森在过去十年大部分时间里的表现。
12. 德里克·奎因 (Derik Queen)，中锋，马里兰大学
模拟选秀预测： 公牛第12顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第11位
高上限： 阿尔佩伦·申京 (Alperen Sengun)
低下限： 桑德罗·马穆凯拉什维利 (Sandro Mamukelashvili)
奎因在进攻端能贡献很多，他拥有面筐技术和传球能力，可以在场上任意位置发挥作用并组织高效进攻。像申京这样在2021年选秀夜跌到十几顺位，被视为非正统潜力股的球员的成功，为奎因的潜力奠定了基础。他需要成为一名更有侵略性的篮板手和更投入的防守者——这两点都可以通过改善体型和体能得到帮助。他还需要发展出更可靠的三分球。
在当今NBA，有技术、偏进攻型的内线有其立足之地，但当依赖身体条件和防守技术不足的球员时，也存在一定风险，这一点在球队预测奎因未来价值时已有所考虑。如果他未能最大化自己的能力并发展成为球队的基石，最坏情况下，他的天赋和篮球智商仍将帮助他找到一个位置。
马穆凯拉什维利是一名偏进攻型的内线，他已在NBA确立了深层替补角色，这是一个极端案例——奎因的天赋远高于他——但这一对比旨在强调奎因如果防守端无法立足的下限风险。最可能的结果是介于两者之间。
13. 琼·贝林格 (Joan Beringer)，中锋，奥林匹亚塞德维塔（斯洛文尼亚）
模拟选秀预测： 老鹰第13顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第15位
高上限： 克林特·卡佩拉 (Clint Capela)
低下限： 贾克森·海斯 (Jaxson Hayes)
贝林格预测的NBA角色简单且已被证明：他将接空接球，冲篮下，保护内线，并可能进行一些防守换防。考虑到他要到11月才满19岁，并且只打了三年篮球，NBA球队看重他出色的身体条件和对于一名年轻中锋来说高于平均水平的敏捷性，这预示着吸引人的潜力。他仍处于发展的早期阶段，这带来了一些风险，但也为贝林格被新球队培养成潜在的长期首发中锋提供了漫长的发展期。
在描述这种特定类型中锋时，卡佩拉是一个经典的参照点。尽管贝林格不太可能拉开空间或用跳投构成威胁，但这类内线球员在周围有射手和组织者的情况下也能成功，他们能够在没有专门触球的情况下完成进攻并在篮下构成威胁。
海斯在2019年从德克萨斯大学毕业时是第8顺位选秀，因为他令人难以置信的身体条件和相似的上限潜力，但他从未确立为首发级别球员，但在NBA效力六个赛季后（现在在湖人队）他仍有位置。贝林格很可能落在这个范围内的某个位置，这取决于他能多快适应NBA比赛并最大化他的天赋。
14. 卡特·布莱恩特 (Carter Bryant)，小前锋/大前锋，亚利桑那大学
模拟选秀预测： 马刺第14顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第12位
高上限： 特雷·墨菲三世 (Trey Murphy III)
低下限： 罗伊斯·奥尼尔 (Royce O’Neale)
布莱恩特吸引人的外线身材、防守多样性、传球智商和流畅投篮动作的组合，契合了NBA有价值的球员类型。他应该在攻防两端都能覆盖多个位置，提供阵容深度，并且进攻端有提升空间。很难指望布莱恩特在自主进攻方面有巨大飞跃；如果他在这方面取得重大进展，可能会让他走上与墨菲相似的轨迹，后者是另一位大器晚成的3D类型球员，花时间成长为得分手。
诚然，在墨菲上赛季在新奥尔良取得默默无闻的得分飞跃之前，这个对比会更好。很难指望布莱恩特达到那样的产出水平，但他有时间。如果他能发展成为更高产的远距离威胁，即使他从未像墨菲那样突破20分大关，他也能贡献价值。
如果布莱恩特停滞不前，仅仅是一名有用的替补球员，他仍可能像奥尼尔的放大版，后者职业生涯大部分时间都在两个前锋位置上填补空缺并保持良好投射。
额外模板！
诺亚·埃森格在最近的模拟选秀中没有被预测为乐透秀，但他已在我们的百大新秀榜中升至前10位，因此值得在此一提。
15. 诺亚·埃森格 (Noa Essengue)，大前锋，乌尔姆兰蒂奥帕姆（德国）
模拟选秀预测： 雷霆第15顺位 | 百大新秀榜： 第9位
高上限： 帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆 (Pascal Siakam)
低下限： 贾里德·范德比尔特 (Jarred Vanderbilt)
过去几个月，埃森格在德国的表现越来越有说服力，他在稳定性和活力方面取得了显著进步，并且打法积极，有助于赢球。埃森格年仅18岁，他结合了身材、移动能力、爆发力和可塑造体型，这为他最终在NBA取得成功提供了广泛的途径。像他这种能防守多个位置、在篮板上贡献价值、并且能舒服地拉到外线的前锋球员是很难找到的。
如果埃森格能从本赛季的基础上更进一步，他可以成为一名优秀的NBA球员，依靠他的活力和身体素质，同时随着时间推移提升技术水平，类似于西亚卡姆。埃森格无需大量球权也能发挥价值，在比赛进行中展现出良好的本能，并找到贡献的方法。他仍需要一次巨大的进攻突破才能最大化他的潜力，特别是在外线投篮方面，他仍在努力保持稳定性。
如果他没有在进攻端取得突破，埃森格仍应该是一名有用的角色球员，作为替补提供篮板和防守价值，类似于范德比尔特的表现。
点击查看原文：2025 NBA draft: Player comps for 14 projected lottery picks
2025 NBA draft: Player comps for 14 projected lottery picks
We’re back for another year to draw pro comparisons for ESPN’s projected lottery prospects in the 2025 NBA draft, which runs from June 25-26 (8 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN).
It’s often a useful exercise, if done responsibly. Sometimes that’s easier said than done, as it’s a process that often invites hyperbole.
The goal here isn’t to draw a perfect comparison for each of the 14 projected lottery picks – we’d be guaranteed to be wrong. This exercise serves as a lens to think about a prospect’s future role, examine his range of potential outcomes, and consider which areas of development are most critical to long-term success.
This type of thought process can help in player evaluation from a conceptual standpoint and in envisioning how a prospect’s profile might fit a certain team.
With that in mind, and with the draft just a few weeks away, let’s look at both high- and low-end comparisons for each prospect projected to be drafted among the first 14 picks, plus a bonus selection who is on teams’ radars as a potential lottery pick.
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1. Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Duke
Mock draft projection: No. 1 to Mavericks | Top 100: No. 1
High end: Jayson Tatum with more defense
Low end: Andre Iguodala with more offense
Flagg is the consensus No. 1 pick for good reason: Statistically and empirically speaking, he’s on a trajectory to become one of the top wings in the NBA. The question that has been asked all season, including by NBA executives, has been about what type of heights Flagg will reach. His well-rounded offense and stellar defense give him incredible baseline versatility for an 18-year-old entering the league, something the Mavericks should be able to exploit to their advantage next season. Some around the league have likened him to a modern Scottie Pippen, while Flagg himself has said he patterns his game after Tatum, who is his favorite player.
If Flagg continues to make strides creating his own shot – where he has flashed comfort level in the midrange but needs refinement – the possibility of a Tatum-like scoring leap is on the table. He has improved that facet of his game over the past couple of years, becoming more comfortable from long range and leaving room for optimism that he’ll grow comfortable improvising and operating off the bounce. If he doesn’t evolve into a legitimate No. 1 option, he might settle best as a second star alongside a more scoring-oriented teammate.
While Flagg figures to offer more offensively than Iguodala, who never topped the 20-point-per-game mark in his career, that comparison illustrates the ways he might add value apart from putting the ball in the basket by himself. As is the case with most of these comparisons, the likely outcome is often somewhere in the middle. In his case, the range of possibilities is more exciting than anxiety-inducing for NBA evaluators.
2. Dylan Harper, PG/SG, Rutgers
Mock draft projection: No. 2 to Spurs | Top 100: No. 2
High end: Jalen Brunson but bigger
Low end: D’Angelo Russell
Harper’s blend of size, power, scoring and playmaking makes him a highly attractive pro prospect, with the skill set to lead an offense as a high-usage star in a best-case scenario. Although Harper’s size (6-foot-6, 215 pounds) should make him a more valuable player on the defensive end, the Brunson comp makes sense through a macro lens: Both rely on craft, creating contact and attacking angles to manipulate defenses. Brunson was a better 3-point shooter coming out of Villanova, something Harper will have to improve over time to maximize his potential. But there’s a world where he gets there and becomes a foundational player and offensive fulcrum.
Harper’s high floor, due in part to his size advantage handling the ball, is a big part of his appeal – his mix of strengths makes it hard to see him flunking the NBA test. In projecting his lower-end outcomes, the odds are still that he becomes a viable starting-caliber player. He could wind up as an average shooter, and his defensive impact could be inconsistent based on past tendencies. Those possibilities would limit his impact on winning games as a No. 1 or No. 2 option, but his game could still scale down effectively.
Russell, who was the No. 2 pick in 2015 and an All-Star in his fourth season, has been a productive player, but he still hasn’t figured out how to lead a consistent winning team. Harper should be impactful early on, but how his career unfolds from there will depend on context and continued improvement.
3. Ace Bailey, SG/SF, Rutgers
Mock draft projection: No. 3 to 76ers | Top 100: No. 3
High end: Michael Porter Jr.
Low end: Andrew Wiggins
Bailey is the draft’s most dynamic shotmaker, a skill that makes plain his significant scoring potential. The major long-term question is how he’ll harness it, with the rest of Bailey’s skill set still developing. He has the size to rise and shoot over most defenders, a knack for making off-balance shots, and a stroke that projects well catching and shooting from range.
But he’s not a naturally creative ball handler, tending to pick up his dribble and settle for a shot rather than weave his way around defenses, making his style predictable at times, albeit not always easy to stop.
It’s difficult to bank on Bailey developing the playmaking ability and handle that would warrant heavy on-ball usage, which makes Porter Jr. an interesting player to consider as a comp. As a draft prospect out of Missouri in 2018, Porter had similar questions around his passing and handling skills, and he benefited from landing with the Denver Nuggets, a team where his shooting has been maximized by having playmakers around him, and where he hasn’t been asked to step out of his comfort zone as a creator.
It’s easy to see Bailey’s efficiency and game transforming positively in that type of context as a second or third scorer, but it’s harder at this stage of his career to squint and see a bona fide No. 1 option. If that never happens, his career could wind up more in the vein of Wiggins, who has been a productive scorer his entire career but hasn’t always been an accessory to winning basketball.
4. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Mock draft projection: No. 4 to Hornets | Top 100: No. 4
High end: Victor Oladipo
Low end: Jaden Ivey
The elevator pitch with Edgecombe centers largely around the possibility that he develops into a capable on-ball creator, where his speed, strength and elite explosiveness could best create problems for defenses.
Getting him the reps he needs to make that leap will be step one wherever he lands, but the downhill, hyperathletic slashing mold he fits makes Oladipo a valid point of comparison. It took Oladipo time to settle in in the NBA, and he broke out fully in his fifth season (2017-18) before a 2019 knee injury derailed his career. There are some similarities in their styles of play and trajectories entering the league, including the need to develop a more consistent outside shot and flesh out their ability to create offense while handling the ball.
Edgecombe has All-Star upside if everything clicks for him. While there’s risk built into his profile given the level of adjustments he might need to maximize his physical tools, it’s also easy to see a useful floor due to his likely value as a high-energy perimeter defender and transition player.
The Ivey comparison is a little tricky because the Detroit Pistons guard is still developing in his own right, but things started to click for him this past season before an injury in January. Slashing guards in this mold who have to learn to make good decisions with the ball often take time to find success.
The range of outcomes for Edgecombe offensively might be pretty wide, but at worst, he should still be a highly useful backcourt contributor – adding to his appeal as a top-five selection.
5. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Mock draft projection: No. 5 to Jazz | Top 100: No. 7
High end: Monta Ellis
Low end: Jerryd Bayless
Fears’ profile has interesting stylistic elements that make him a tricky comp. He gets downhill and pressures the paint with more daring and craft than a typical guard his size, but he’s also not a historically good 3-point shooter (28.4% on 3s at Oklahoma this past season), making for a sort of a throwback baseline archetype.
Considering his age (18) and the progress he made with the Sooners, Fears has a chance to be a dangerous scorer and playmaker, but there’s a lot riding on whether he can be efficient. Either his perimeter shooting will have to progress – a feasible thing to expect, considering his strong free throw percentages (85.1% this past season) – or his interior scoring will have to translate well enough to prop up the rest of his game.
Although this tracks back a decade or so, Ellis is an interesting stylistic comparison as a smaller high-volume scorer and creator who struggled with turnovers and inconsistent long-distance shooting for much of his career. It’s certainly possible Fears could surpass that, but it’s also maybe a big step to bank on him becoming a top-end jump shooter, albeit he should improve as he gains strength and experience. If that doesn’t happen, he could end up as more of a Bayless type – a combo bench scorer in the long run, offering developmental downside given how high a team will have to select him on draft night.
Fears’ major flashes of talent leave room for optimism, but there’s a somewhat wide berth of outcomes given all the variables that need to go his way to become a star.
6. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Mock draft projection: No. 6 to Wizards | Top 100: No. 5
High end: Michael Redd
Low end: Cam Thomas, but taller
Johnson is a fairly simple prospect to understand. He’s likely going to shoot it well; he’s probably going to shoot a lot; and whatever else he ends up giving his future team will be gravy, not necessarily baked into their expectations.
Johnson’s clean and compact stroke will make him a threat from long range, and he has flashed ability to get to it off the dribble, with a level of fearlessness required to succeed as a volume scorer but also one that can get him into trouble with shot selection at times. His efficiency inside the paint and finishing will have to improve, too.
If Johnson can come close to the type of career Redd put together (although Redd’s peak in the early 2000s was eventually hampered by serious knee injuries in 2009), that would be a pretty outstanding result, and there are some similar components here. Redd became one of the top 3-point shooters of his era and shouldered a heavy workload due more to the threat of his unorthodox jumper than anything else. It’s worth underscoring that Johnson is well ahead of Redd at the same age (the latter was a career 31.9% shooter from 3 at Ohio State and a second-round pick). Johnson’s mechanics are far cleaner and project more safely.
It’s a reasonable bet Johnson can evolve into a dynamic volume shooter – the question is whether he can do it efficiently, and whether he’ll be able to do it in a winning context. Those are similar questions that have hovered over Thomas’ value due to similar tendencies he has shown four years into his NBA career (2021-25).
7. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Mock draft projection: No. 7 to Pelicans | Top 100: No. 6
High end: Rudy Gobert, but quicker
Low end: Daniel Gafford, but bigger
Maluach fits neatly into the rim-protecting, rim-running center archetype that has remained valuable through the NBA’s various stylistic shifts of the past couple of decades. He is still learning the game and improving his defensive habits; his sheer size acts as a deterrent in the paint, with above-average mobility for his 7-2 frame that points to major defensive upside. An efficient finisher who is limited in other ways offensively, Maluach could eventually become a topflight player within his mold.
While Gobert can read as a slightly obvious comparison point for paint-protecting 7-footers, in this case, it illustrates Maluach’s upside as a player who could potentially provide major defensive backbone in a winning context. It’s certainly not a given that he’ll reach NBA Defensive Player of the Year-caliber heights, but there’s security in what he offers already, coupled with the feasible areas for improvement, particularly if he adds a 3-point shot.
Maluach’s floor as a useful contributor feels pretty sound regardless: Centers with his sheer dimensions, above-average mobility and role awareness – such as the comp to Gafford – tend to find their place in the league.
8. Kon Knueppel, SG/SF, Duke
Mock draft projection: No. 8 to Nets | Top 100: No. 8
High end: Desmond Bane
Low end: Joe Harris
Knueppel has a case as the best shooter in the draft, but it’s the breadth of his all-around offensive game that has elevated him as a potential top-five pick. NBA teams were pleasantly surprised by Knueppel’s decision-making and passing acumen at Duke, where he succeeded in a large role that required him to facilitate offense and space the floor at a high level. His average athletic profile – he’s not especially fast or quick – is the primary concern in his projection, potentially capping some of his high-end outcomes if he’s not able to create elite-level offense.
Bane was an undervalued draft prospect in 2020 coming out of TCU, where he was a career 43.2% 3-point shooter but was viewed as an average athlete with short arms who lacked big-time upside. He outkicked those expectations fast, becoming a crucial player for the Grizzlies in his second season, with Memphis investing in his skill set and the chance he could become more than simply a 3-and-D player, giving him opportunities to make plays and shoulder more responsibility. Although he won’t sneak up on anyone the way Bane did, Knueppel’s best-case scenarios fall along those lines.
Considering Knueppel’s age (he turns 20 on Aug. 3, whereas Bane played four years in college), his career peak could surpass Bane’s in the right situation, adding to NBA teams’ bullishness on his future. If things don’t quite click for him as a shot creator deserving of heavy bandwidth, Knueppel should still be a top shooter who plays valuable minutes on good teams in a lesser capacity, similar to Harris.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF/C, South Carolina
Mock draft projection: No. 9 to Raptors | Top 100: No. 14
High end: Al Horford
Low end: Xavier Tillman
Murray-Boyles projects as a solid gadget player in the frontcourt, capable of playing all over the floor on offense thanks to his intelligent passing, guarding multiple positions using his length, plus his physicality and toughness. Maximizing his potential depends on the development of his questionable 3-point shot; if he can present a threat from outside, it’ll help cover for his lack of ideal size at power forward.
If his shot develops, Murray-Boyles could wind up in the vein of a modern Horford – a versatile big who can be instrumental to winning as a defensive stalwart with complementary offensive utility.
If Murray-Boyles were to completely stagnate at the NBA level – an unlikely scenario, considering his age (he turns 20 on June 10) and trajectory – he should still hold down a spot on a roster as a useful depth player à la Tillman, who shared some of his intrinsic strengths but was older and far less mobile coming out of Michigan State.
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Mock draft projection: No. 10 to Rockets | Top 100: No. 10
High end: Austin Reaves
Low end: Delon Wright
Jakucionis is a savvy playmaker as a 6-6 guard, with the instincts and skill level to handle the ball and an improving shooting stroke. Reliant on pace, timing and improvisation instead of top-end speed, he excels in screen situations and plays an unselfish style that should allow him to succeed whether or not he develops into a full-time lead guard. He has to improve his ball security (3.7 turnovers per game) and 3-point shooting (31.8%), but his demanding role at Illinois required him to take risks and contributed to some of those inefficiencies.
It’s feasible Jakucionis will wind up valued similarly to Reaves, another crafty combo guard with whom he shares stylistic similarities. Reaves entered the NBA at a much older age and worked his way into a mainstay for the Los Angeles Lakers in short order. Jakucionis might take longer, but he is well ahead of where Reaves, who played four years in college and went undrafted out of Oklahoma, was at the same age.
And in a worst-case scenario, his well-rounded skill set and ability to play both guard spots should still warrant a long-term spot in the NBA as a reserve.
11. Egor Demin, PG/SG, BYU
Mock draft projection: No. 11 to Trail Blazers | Top 100: No. 11
High end: Deni Avdija and Josh Giddey
Low end: Kyle Anderson
It’s easy to see the appeal and sheer talent Demin brings as an oversized playmaker, with arguably the best passing vision in the class. Those types of players are ever-popular, with NBA teams coveting size and feel on the perimeter that can scale into an array of roles.
There are two key factors in Demin’s projection: How much time he’ll earn handling the ball and his consistency from long range. His below-average foot speed and streaky 3-point stroke create some risk factors. He’s not quick creating off the dribble and will need to keep defenses honest with his shot to maximize his pathway to minutes.
Although not perfect comparisons, Giddey, a historically below-average shooter who is at his best making plays with the ball, and Avdija, who has settled in the past couple of seasons as a multiskilled off-ball forward, can be used to illustrate different roles Demin could eventually settle into. Whether he’s capable of playing as a quasi-lead guard or adds more value as a connective player away from the ball remains to be seen, but both pathways are feasible depending how he develops.
If his development stagnates and doesn’t lead to a top rotation role, he could still provide long-term utility depth, similar to the way Anderson has for much of the past decade.
12. Derik Queen, C, Maryland
Mock draft projection: No. 12 to Bulls | Top 100: No. 11
High end: Alperen Sengun
Low end: Sandro Mamukelashvili
Queen brings a lot to the table offensively, with the face-up skills and passing ability to play all over the floor and facilitate good offense. The success of players such as Sengun, who fell into the teens on draft night in 2021 and was viewed as an unorthodox prospect, helps lay the groundwork for Queen’s potential. He needs to become a more aggressive rebounder and engaged defender – two things that would be aided by improving his frame and conditioning. He also needs to develop a more reliable 3-point shot.
There’s a place for skilled, offensive-minded bigs in today’s NBA, but there’s also a level of risk built in when relying on players with subpar physical and defensive skills, something considered in how teams project Queen’s value moving forward. If he doesn’t maximize his ability and develop into a cornerstone for a team, at worst, his talent and basketball IQ will still help him find a role.
Mamukelashvili, an offensive-minded big who has settled into a deep bench role in the NBA, is an extreme case – Queen is far more talented – but that comp is meant to underscore the downside if Queen is unable to stay on the floor defensively. The most likely outcome is in the middle.
13. Joan Beringer, C, Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia)
Mock draft projection: No. 13 to Hawks | Top 100: No. 15
High end: Clint Capela
Low end: Jaxson Hayes
Beringer’s projected NBA role is simple and proven: He is going to catch lobs, rim-run, protect the paint and potentially switch a little bit defensively. Considering he doesn’t turn 19 until November and has been playing basketball for only three years, NBA teams see attractive upside thanks to his strong physical tools and above-average agility for a young center. He’s still very early in his development, which builds in some risk but also creates a long runway for Beringer to be brought along by his next team as a potential long-term starter at the 5.
When describing this specific mold of center, Capela is kind of the classic point of reference. Although Beringer isn’t likely to space the floor or threaten with his jumper, these types of bigs can still succeed with shooting and playmaking around them, capable of finishing plays and posing a threat around the basket without designed touches.
Hayes, who was the No. 8 pick out of Texas in 2019 due to his incredible tools and a similar upside case, has never settled in as a starting-level player, but he continues to hold a role in the NBA after six seasons – now with the Lakers. Beringer will likely fall somewhere on this spectrum, depending on how quickly he can pick up the NBA game and get the most out of his talent.
14. Carter Bryant, SF/PF, Arizona
Mock draft projection: No. 14 to Spurs | Top 100: No. 12
High end: Trey Murphy III
Low end: Royce O’Neale
Bryant’s appealing combination of perimeter size, defensive versatility, passing IQ and a clean shooting stroke fit into a valuable NBA archetype. He should offer lineup coverage at multiple positions on both ends of the floor, with room to grow offensively. It’s hard to expect a huge leap from Bryant in terms of creating his shot; major gains in that department could put him on a trajectory similar to that of Murphy, another late-blooming 3-and-D type who took time to blossom as a scorer.
Admittedly, this comparison would have been better before Murphy’s unheralded scoring leap last season in New Orleans. It’s hard to expect that level of output from Bryant, but he has time. If he can develop into a higher-volume threat from distance, he could add value even if he never cracks the 20-point threshold like Murphy just did.
And if Bryant were to stagnate as merely a useful bench player, he could still profile as a bigger version of O’Neale, who has filled in gaps and shot it well at both forward spots for much of his career.
Bonus comp!
Noa Essengue wasn’t projected in the lottery in our most recent mock, but he has moved into the top 10 on our Top 100 rankings and thus deserves a mention here.
15. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Mock draft projection: No. 15 to Thunder | Top 100: No. 9
High end: Pascal Siakam
Low end: Jarred Vanderbilt
Essengue has increasingly made a case for himself over the past few months in Germany, displaying tangible strides in consistency and motor and playing an active style that has been additive to winning. Still just 18 years old, Essengue has a combination of size, mobility, explosiveness and projectable frame that gives him a wide array of pathways to ultimately succeed in the NBA. Forwards in his mold who defend multiple positions, add value on the glass and can step out onto the perimeter comfortably are hard to find.
If Essengue can build off this season, he can become an excellent NBA player who relies on his motor and physicality, while improving his skill level over time, similar to Siakam. Essengue has been valuable without needing focused touches, shows good instincts in the run of play and finds ways to produce. A big offensive leap would still need to happen for him to maximize his potential, particularly as a perimeter shooter, where he still struggles with consistency.
If an offensive breakthrough doesn’t happen for him, Essengue should still be a useful role player, offering rebounding and defensive value off the bench similar to the way Vanderbilt has.
By Jeremy Woo | ESPN, via ESPN