By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-06-04 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
谢伊能否带领俄克拉荷马城到达他们期待已久的应许之地，还是哈利伯顿注定要再次制造冷门？
这是一个古老的故事：顽强的弱者试图击败被广泛看好的巨人，许多人已经为巨人加冕冠军。
步行者可以通过一场看似不可能的胜利做到这一点，但挡在他们面前的是一支取得68胜的强大球队，拥有看似坚不可摧的防守。俄克拉荷马城现在看起来势不可挡，但更大的冷门已经在本赛季的季后赛中发生——其中许多都是由印第安纳自己策划的。
那么，泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿 (Tyrese Haliburton) 和步行者能否继续打破常规，还是谢伊将带领雷霆队赢得看似不可避免的总冠军？
让我们拭目以待。
注：所有数据均反映季后赛数据，除非另有说明。
关键剧情
失误
在很多方面，这两支球队就像一枚硬币的两面，因为雷霆和步行者都擅长制造和限制失误。
从俄克拉荷马城开始，众所周知，他们制造失误的能力是使他们如此致命的特征之一。雷霆迫使他们的对手在18%的控球权中交出球权，在季后赛中排名第一，几乎比他们17.1%的历史常规赛水平高出一个百分点。
不过，步行者可能是雷霆抢断战术的完美对手。尽管步行者平均每场比赛的传球次数排名第二（314.3次），但他们的失误率仅为12.5%（排名第四低）。
这些俱乐部制造失误的方式也很重要。雷霆队可以通过任何可以想象的方式做到这一点，无论是抄截传球路线、进行包夹，还是简单地在对手在他们附近运球时抢走球。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月3日
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月3日
即使步行者的失误率很低，俄克拉荷马城的防守也可能被证明是印第安纳（以及所有人）的氪星石，因为步行者将球推到前场的愿望可能会直接落入雷霆的圈套——尤其是如果他们像下面这些回合中表现得那样马虎。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月3日
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月3日
另一方面，印第安纳14.5%的失误制造率也排名第七，但他们将面临俄克拉荷马城队的挑战，雷霆队11.1%的失误率是所有季后赛球队中最低的。考虑到数据和肉眼观察，我对印第安纳队从雷霆队手中抢断球的能力不太有信心：步行者最高使用率的球员在抢断率方面仅仅是平均水平到略高于平均水平，而俄克拉荷马城队的三名最高使用率球员在限制失误方面表现出色（谢伊、杰伦·威廉姆斯 (Jalen Williams) 和切特 (Chet) 的失误率均低于10%，排在第90百分位）。
此外，步行者失误率最高的球员包括安德鲁·内姆布哈德 (Andrew Nembhard)（13.7%）、迈尔斯·特纳 (Myles Turner)（13.4%）和本尼迪克·马瑟林 (Bennedict Mathurin)（12.5%），他们场均上场时间都超过28分钟。如果这三人被证明是雷霆历史性防守的累赘，步行者可能会被迫放弃让他们如此危险的疯狂风格。
与此同时，哈尔滕施泰因 (Hartenstein) 是俄克拉荷马城阵容中唯一失误率较高的重要球员（15.4%），而且由于我们稍后将讨论的其他对位问题，他的角色可能会被削弱。
简而言之，雷霆队比步行者队更有可能减缓印第安纳队的速度并限制他们强大的速度，反之则不然。步行者队仍然会制造相当多的失误，但要求他们赶上俄克拉荷马城队则是另一回事——尤其是因为雷霆队的进攻不涉及太多的球的转移，而且谢伊的失误率是联盟中最低的之一。
转换进攻
两支球队的相似之处在转换进攻中也很明显。
俄克拉荷马城队在15.6%（第2名）的回合中进行转换进攻，并且在这种情况下拥有惊人的142.0的进攻效率（第1名），而印第安纳队的频率为13.8%（第5名），进攻效率为138.5（第3名）。在防守端，这些球队在限制转换进攻频率方面分别排名第二（11.0%，雷霆队）和第四（11.8%，步行者队），同时还保持着114.5（第四名，雷霆队）和… 97.0（第一名，步行者队）的出色防守效率。
对于印第安纳队来说，后一个数字是不可持续的，但俄克拉荷马城队的转换防守是名副其实的。雷霆队在第一轮中遇到了一支更好的转换进攻球队灰熊队，并完全阻止了他们跑起来。孟菲斯队在常规赛中的转换进攻频率为17.2%，在全联盟排名第二，但在他们的四场横扫中，这一比例降至11.9%，这将是联盟中垫底的水平。
撇开数据不谈，这些球队以不同的方式创造转换进攻的机会。雷霆队主要依靠失误，而步行者队则优先考虑超越半场，而不管情况如何。印第安纳队的第一反应是提前传球，并在对方防守到位之前制造错位，无论是在投篮命中、篮板球还是抢断之后。
来自步行者队在投篮命中后的速度… pic.twitter.com/jvdy1fT6ss
— Coach Gibson Pyper (@ HalfCourtHoops) 2025年6月1日
另一方面，两支球队都优先在失去球权后跑回防守，以建立他们的防守。双方都不太在意抢到进攻篮板，因为两支球队的进攻篮板率都排在后半段，这是一个明智的策略，因为当对手留在后面争抢篮板时，两支球队都能随意得分。
尽管如此，由于他们比赛的速度，这些球队不可避免地会陷入交叉对位。这种情况发生的频率可能会决定系列赛的结果，这让我们想到了…
对位
印第安纳的进攻 vs. 俄克拉荷马城的防守
印第安纳在进攻端的坚持不懈将迫使俄克拉荷马城对其轮换阵容进行重大调整。首先，我预计哈尔滕施泰因在总决赛中的作用会减少。去年他在纽约打球时，步行者队无情地追着他打，而且哈尔滕施泰因没有足够的速度来跟上印第安纳的后卫。鉴于步行者队也是一支篮板球能力较差的球队，只有迈尔斯·特纳一名可靠的内线球员，预计俄克拉荷马城队会让切特独自上场很长时间。这也将减少雷霆队的失误，因为哈尔滕施泰因是他们轮换阵容中失误率最高的球员。
取而代之的是，俄克拉荷马城队可能会让卡森·华莱士 (Cason Wallace) 或亚历克斯·卡鲁索 (Alex Caruso) 首发，具体取决于对位情况。在进攻端有趣的是，除了吕冈茨·多尔特 (Luguentz Dort) 被分配去防守哈利伯顿之外，没有明确的对位。在他们最近的常规赛比赛中，谢伊防守内姆布哈德，华莱士防守内史密斯，哈尔滕施泰因防守西亚卡姆（因为切特受伤了），杰伦·威廉姆斯防守特纳。雷霆队在换防方面不会有问题，因为他们的多功能性，尽管他们希望让切特和谢伊远离主要的防守任务。
特别是，这对组合的防守任务可能是雷霆队的一个风向标。就切特而言，如果俄克拉荷马城决定让他直接对阵特纳，他们可能会让他换防哈利伯顿，而雷霆队的内线通常采用的沉退防守可能会导致他让出空位三分。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月3日
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月3日
俄克拉荷马城队可以尝试让切特去防守投篮命中率一直低于平均水平的内姆布哈德，从而让他可以在油漆区内游走。这也将允许卡鲁索/华莱士中的一人防守特纳，以便雷霆队可以换防哈利伯顿-特纳挡拆，而不会让出错位。然而，内姆布哈德似乎是季后赛吉米 (Playoff Jimmy) 的信徒，因为他有能力在季后赛中突然成为一名神射手，他在这次比赛中投中了50%的三分球。
撇开投篮不谈，步行者队也非常乐意让内姆布哈德发起进攻，所以切特仍然会被迫在外线进行防守。为了缓解这个问题，俄克拉荷马城队可以选择让他防守西亚卡姆，后者比任何非内线球员都更多地在油漆区内活动，并且可以让切特更靠近篮筐。尽管如此，一个简单的西亚卡姆-哈利伯顿挡拆会迫使他回到外线，而且印第安纳队有能力派出全阵容都能运球、传球和投篮的球员，这使得他们很难防守。
对于谢伊来说，让他防守内姆布哈德或内史密斯是唯一可行的选择，而后者的健康状况可能是决定这一决定的因素。如果他100%健康，内史密斯的速度和无球跑动对于谢伊来说可能太过分了，但一个受伤的版本可能会给这位MVP一个在防守端稍微休息的地方。如果俄克拉荷马城选择让他防守内姆布哈德，预计步行者队会通过这位二号位后卫发动更多的进攻，以使谢伊疲惫不堪并攻击雷霆队防守中所谓的“薄弱环节”。
这个系列赛中另一个有趣的现象是两支球队的风格差异，其中一些非常有利于一方。例如，雷霆队优先保护篮筐，限制对方球队的突破——当球员攻击篮筐时，俄克拉荷马城队会收缩到油漆区，因此，只有27.4%（第五少）的对方投篮来自雷霆队篮筐四英尺的范围内。然而，这意味着他们允许大量的三分球，尤其是来自底角的三分球：40.3%（第三多）的对方投篮来自三分线外，而13.5%（第二多）来自底角。
如果马克·戴格诺特 (Mark Daigneault) 选择不改变他们的防守策略，印第安纳队可能会有一个可以攻击的点。步行者队的三分球命中率为41.7%（第一名），底角三分球命中率为47.5%（第二名），但他们只有35.3%的投篮来自三分线外（第14名）。
考虑到所有因素，步行者队在俄克拉荷马城队身上持续得分的最佳机会是瞄准谢伊和切特，并将球踢给他们的射手。这不是一个万无一失的策略，但在面对一支历史上伟大的防守球队时，没有更好的选择。
俄克拉荷马城的进攻 vs. 印第安纳的防守
对于雷霆队来说，一切都始于谢伊，也终于谢伊。内姆布哈德将承担这项任务，而内史密斯将防守杰伦·威廉姆斯，特纳将直接对位防守切特。这使得西亚卡姆和哈利伯顿可以躲在多尔特和卡鲁索/华莱士身边，同时也让前者可以成为后防线的游动者——他非常擅长这个角色。
对于印第安纳队来说，他们的整个计划应该着眼于减缓谢伊的速度。他会无情地追着特纳打，步行者队不能轻易换防，除非他们想吃到大量的烤鸡。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月4日
雷霆队的进攻远不如印第安纳队那样具有创新性，但他们仍然能够执行多种战术来获得他们想要的对位。例如，下面的片段显示俄克拉荷马城队跑了一个双掩护，让谢伊攻击戈贝尔 (Gobert) 向下突破，从而轻松地完成了一个干拔中投。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月4日
即使他的防守者绕过了掩护，谢伊仍然可以在他的防守者恢复的半秒钟内到达他的位置。然后，这位MVP向所有人展示了他为什么拥有高难度投篮博士学位。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) 2025年6月4日
俄克拉荷马城进攻的另一个关键组成部分是后卫-后卫之间的配合。雷霆队轮换阵容中的每一个人都是愿意并且有能力的掩护者，他们将利用这一点将哈利伯顿的人带入比赛中，从而为谢伊创造错位。
为了应对这种情况，印第安纳队需要突破缝隙并封锁谢伊的突破路线。丹佛队在他们的第二轮系列赛中做得还算不错，迫使这位MVP投出像下面这样的高难度投篮。
俄克拉荷马城队想要攻击贾马尔·穆雷 (Jamal Murray)，让他参与到防守谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大 (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) 的行动中。威廉姆斯掩护，丹佛队进行换防，但看看克里斯蒂安·布劳恩 (Christian Braun) 的帮助。停在钉子处。试图阻止突破路线并进行干扰。pic.twitter.com/NBiBE78h0U
— Steve Jones Jr. (@ stevejones20) 2025年5月10日
考虑到这一点，印第安纳队减缓雷霆队速度的最佳机会是，好吧，减缓谢伊的速度。俄克拉荷马城队唯一的弱点是他们的第二进攻点，所以步行者队需要将球从谢伊手中转移出去，并迫使雷霆队的替补阵容击败他们。
数据也支持这一点。在俄克拉荷马城队的轮换球员中，除了谢伊之外，只有哈尔滕施泰因和卡鲁索的得分效率相对于他们的位置来说高于平均水平。雷霆队在季后赛中的三分球命中率也只有33.5%，这是所有进入季后赛的球队中最差的命中率之一。
总的来说，印第安纳队通往成功的道路在理论上很简单，但在执行上却很困难。他们需要阻止谢伊轻松地换防特纳和哈利伯顿，并在他到达他的位置之前在进攻早期包夹他。然后，步行者队的其他防守者需要敏锐地进行轮换，以防止在人数不足的情况下轻松得分，尽管迫使雷霆队的第二进攻发起点得分应该被认为是印第安纳队的胜利。
如果步行者队设法完成这一目标，并且俄克拉荷马城队继续在投篮方面挣扎，那么他们将有机会获胜。
X因素：迈尔斯·特纳
特纳在对阵纽约队的比赛中表现不佳，因为卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 (Karl-Anthony Towns) 在进攻端基本上得到了他想要的任何东西。切特不像唐斯那样天赋异禀，所以特纳不需要在外线对他进行严密的防守。尽管如此，切特比唐斯更有能力创造自己的投篮机会，同时也比唐斯更擅长传球，所以特纳需要意识到雷霆队可能正在运行的其他战术。
此外，步行者队轮换阵容中最薄弱的环节是他们的中锋深度，或者说是缺乏深度。印第安纳队在特纳身后没有可靠的替补内线，所以他需要依靠他来打很长时间而不会陷入犯规麻烦。如前所述，谢伊会无情地追着他打，特纳需要通过换防和恢复或包夹这位MVP来防止轻易换防。
在进攻端，特纳也需要继续稳定地命中三分球。俄克拉荷马城队愿意给出来自底角的空位投篮机会，尤其是当切特/哈尔滕施泰因更专注于防守油漆区时，对方内线球员的空位投篮机会。我不确定期望特纳继续命中40%的总三分球和50%的底角三分球是否可行，但如果步行者队希望制造历史性的冷门，这些数据就不能大幅下降。
预测：雷霆6场胜出
步行者队将凭借他们创新的进攻和巧妙的执教使这个系列赛充满竞争力，但天赋上的不匹配将难以克服。俄克拉荷马城队可以说是唯一一支能够跟上印第安纳队速度的球队（雷霆队在季后赛中的速度实际上比步行者队更高），这将抵消步行者队的主要王牌。
简而言之，对于步行者队来说，需要太多事情顺利进行才能获得冠军。印第安纳队需要赢得失误之战，限制谢伊的效率，并希望俄克拉荷马城队继续在投篮方面挣扎，而雷霆队应该仅仅通过以他们整个季后赛的水平进行比赛就能获胜。考虑到步行者队已经取得的逆转，这并非不可能，但雷霆队有一种不可避免性，让人无法与之抗衡。
俄克拉荷马城队最终将赢得曾经看似有保障的总冠军，而他们新的三巨头将复仇那个从未实现的王朝。
点击查看原文：2025 NBA Finals preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
2025 NBA Finals preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
Will Shai carry OKC to their long-await Promised Land, or is Haliburton destined to pull off another upset?
It’s a tale as old as time: the pesky underdog looking to upset the heavily favored Goliath, whom many have already crowned champ.
The Pacers can do just that by pulling off an improbable victory, but standing in their way is a 68-win juggernaut with a seemingly impenetrable defense. OKC looks unbeatable right now, but bigger upsets have taken place these playoffs — many of which were orchestrated by Indiana themselves.
So, can Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers continue to defy the odds, or will Shai lead the Thunder to a title that seems inevitable?
Let’s find out.
Note: all stats reflect the playoff unless otherwise stated.
Key storylines
Turnovers
In many ways, these teams are two sides of the same coin, as the Thunder and Pacers are both elite at creating and limiting turnovers.
Starting with OKC, it’s common knowledge that their ability to create turnovers is one of the traits that makes them so lethal. The Thunder have forced their opponents to give up the ball on a ridiculous 18% of their possessions, ranking first in the playoffs and nearly an entire percentage point more than their historic 17.1% regular season mark.
The Pacers, though, could be the perfect foil to the Thunder’s ball-snatching ways. Despite averaging the second most passes per game (314.3), Indiana has turned the ball over on just 12.5% of their possession (4th lowest).
The ways in which these clubs force TOs also matter. The Thunder can do it in every way imaginable, be it jumping passing lanes, sending doubles, or simply snatching the ball away when an opponent dribbles in their vicinity.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 3, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 3, 2025
Even with the Pacers’ low TO rate, OKC’s defense could prove to be Indiana’s (and everyone’s) kryptonite, as the Pacers’ desire to push the ball up the court could play right into the Thunder’s hands — especially if they’re as sloppy as shown in the plays below.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 3, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 3, 2025
On the other side, Indiana’s 14.5% TO creation is also 7th highest, but they’ll be challenged by an OKC team whose 11.1% TO rate is the lowest among all playoff teams. Considering both the numbers and eye test, I’m less confident in Indiana’s ability to steal the ball from the Thunder: the Pacers’ highest usage players are merely average to slightly above average in steal rate, whereas OKC’s three highest usage players are elite at limiting turnovers (Shai, JDub, and Chet all have TO rates under 10%, ranking in the 90th percentile).
Moreover, the Pacers’ highest TO players include Nembhard (13.7%), Turner (13.4%), and Mathurin (12.5%), who are all averaging over 28 minutes a game for Indiana. If those three prove to be liabilities against the Thunders’ historic defense, the Pacers could be forced out of playing the frenetic style that’s made them so dangerous.
Meanwhile, Hartenstein is the only important player in OKC’s lineup who has a high TO rate (15.4%), and his role might be reduced anyway due to other matchup concerns we’ll touch on later.
In short, the Thunder have a much better chance of slowing Indiana down and limiting their potent speed than vice versa. The Pacers will still force their fair share of TOs, but asking them to keep up with OKC is a whole other level — especially since the Thunder’s offense doesn’t involve much ball movement and Shai has one of the lowest turnover rates in the league.
Transition
The similarities of both teams are also noticeable in transition.
OKC runs on 15.6% (2nd) of their possessions and has a ridiculous 142.0 offensive rating (1st) on such plays, while Indiana sports a 13.8% frequency (5th) with a 138.5 ORTG (3rd). Defensively, these teams are 2nd (11.0%, Thunder), and 4th (11.8%, Pacers), respectively, in limiting transition frequency, while also maintaining an elite defensive rating of 114.5 (4th, Thunder) and… 97.0 (1st, Pacers).
That latter number is unsustainable for Indiana, but OKC’s transition defense is legit. The Thunder played an even better transition team in the Grizzlies in round one and completely prevented them from running. Memphis’ 17.2% transition frequency in the regular season ranked second league-wide, but that dropped to just 11.9% in their four-game sweep, which would’ve been last in the league by a wide margin.
Numbers aside, these teams create transition chances in different ways. Thunder rely most on turnovers, while the Pacers prioritize getting past half-court regardless of the situation. Indiana’s first instinct is to throw the ball ahead and create a mismatch before the opposing defense can get set, no matter if that’s after a make, a rebound, or a steal.
SPEED from the Pacers after a make… pic.twitter.com/jvdy1fT6ss
— Coach Gibson Pyper (@ HalfCourtHoops) June 1, 2025
On the other end, both teams prioritize running back after losing possession to set up their defense. Neither side cares much for grabbing offensive rebounds as they’re both ranked in the bottom half in OREB%, which is a smart strategy since both teams score at will when the opposition is left behind crashing the boards.
Still, it’s inevitable that these teams will be caught in cross-matches due to the pace they play at. How often that happens could determine the outcome of the series, which brings us to…
Matchups
Indiana’s offense vs OKC’s defense
Indiana’s relentlessness on offense will force OKC to make heavy adjustments to their rotation. For starters, I expect Hartenstein to have a reduced role in the finals. The Pacers hunted him relentlessly last year when he played in New York, and iHart doesn’t have the footspeed to keep up with Indiana’s guards. Given that the Pacers are also a poor rebounding team with only one reliable big in Myles Turner, expect OKC to play Chet heavy minutes alone. This will also mitigate the Thunder’s turnovers since iHart has the highest TO rate among players in their rotation.
In his stead, OKC could start Cason Wallace or Alex Caruso, depending on the matchups. What’s interesting on this side of the ball is that there is no matchup certainty except for Dort to be assigned to Haliburton. In their most recent regular season game, Shai guarded Nembhard, Wallace guarded Nesmith, Hartenstein guarded Siakam (since Chet was injured), and JDub guarded Turner. The Thunder will have no problem switching given their versatility, although they’d like to keep Chet and Shai out of the primary action.
In particular, the defensive assignments of that duo could be a bellwether for the Thunder. In Chet’s case, if OKC decides to play him straight up against Turner, they risk having him switch on to Haliburton, and the drop defense the Thunder’s bigs usually play could result in him giving up open threes.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 3, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 3, 2025
OKC could try putting Chet on a historically below-average shooter in Nembhard, thus freeing him up to roam in the paint. This would also allow one of Caruso/Wallace to be on Turner so that the Thunder could switch a Hali-Turner pick and roll without giving up a mismatch. However, Nembhard seems to be a Playoff Jimmy disciple due to his ability to suddenly become a sharpshooter in the postseason, as he’s making 50% of his threes during this run.
Shooting aside, the Pacers are more than comfortable having Nembhard initiate offense as well, so Chet will still be forced to guard on the perimeter. To mitigate this issue, OKC could elect to put him on Siakam instead, who operates in the paint more than any non-big Pacer and could keep Chet closer to the basket. Still, a simple Siakam-Haliburton pick and roll would force him back out on the perimeter, and Indiana’s ability to field a full lineup of players who can all dribble, pass, and shoot is what makes them so hard to defend.
For Shai, having him guard either Nembhard or Nesmith are the only viable options, and the health of the latter could be the deciding factor in this decision. If he’s 100%, Nesmith’s speed and off-ball cutting might be too much for Shai, but a banged-up version of him could give the MVP a place to somewhat rest on defense. If OKC opts to have him on Nembhard, expect the Pacers to run more offense through the two-guard to tire out Shai and attack the so-called “weak link” in the Thunder’s defense.
Another interesting wrinkle in this series is the stylistic differences between the two teams, some of which heavily favor one side. For example, the Thunder prioritizes rim protection by limiting drives from opposing teams — OKC collapses into the paint when players attack the basket, and as a result, only 27.4% of shots (5th fewest) from opponents have come within four feet of the Thunder’s rim. However, this means that they allow lots of threes, especially from the corner: 40.3% (3rd most) of opponent shots have come from deep, and 13.5% (2nd most) from the corners.
If Mark Daigneault chooses not to change their defensive scheme, Indiana could have a scab to pick at. The Pacers are shooting 41.7% from three (1st) and 47.5% from the corners (2nd), but they’re only attempting 35.3% of their shots from deep (14th).
Considering everything, the Pacers’ best chance of consistently scoring on OKC is by targeting Shai and Chet and kicking the ball out to their shooters. It’s not a foolproof strategy, but there aren’t many better options against a historically great defense.
OKC’s offense vs Indiana’s defense
For the Thunder, everything starts and ends with Shai. Nembhard will draw that assignment, while Nesmith takes JDub and Turner plays straight up against Chet. This allows Siakam and Haliburton to hide on Dort and Caruso/Wallace while also allowing the former to be a roamer on the back line — a role that he excels at.
For Indiana, their entire scheme should be geared toward slowing down Shai. He’ll hunt Turner relentlessly, and the Pacers can’t give up easy switches unless they want heaps of BBQ chicken to be served.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 4, 2025
The Thunder’s offense is nowhere near as innovative as Indiana’s, but they’re still capable of executing multiple actions to get the matchup they’d like. For example, the clip below shows OKC running a double drag to get Shai attacking Gobert downhill, resulting in an easy pull-up middy.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 4, 2025
Even if his defender gets around the screen, Shai can still get to his spot in the half-second it takes his defender to recover. Then, the MVP shows everyone why he has a PhD in tough shot-making.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) June 4, 2025
Another key component of OKC’s offense is guard-guard actions. Every one of the Thunder’s rotation players are willing and capable screeners, and they will use that to bring Haliburton’s man into the play to create a mismatch for Shai.
To counter this, Indiana needs to shoot the gap and close off Shai’s driving lanes. Denver did a decent job of this in their round two series, forcing the MVP to put up tough shots like the one below.
OKC wanted to attack Jamal Murray, put him in action to guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Williams screens, Denver gives the switch but look at the help from Christian Braun. Parked at the nail. Try and take away driving lanes and contest. pic.twitter.com/NBiBE78h0U
— Steve Jones Jr. (@ stevejones20) May 10, 2025
With that in mind, Indiana’s best chance at slowing down the Thunder is, well, slowing down Shai. OKC’s one Achilles heel is their secondary offense, so the Pacers need to get the ball out of Shai’s hands and force the Thunder’s supporting cast to beat them instead.
The numbers back that up, too. Among OKC’s rotation players, only iHart and Caruso have scored with above-average efficiency relative to their position, outside of Shai. The Thunder are also shooting just 33.5% from deep during the postseason, which is one of the worst marks among all teams who made it to the playoffs.
Overall, Indiana’s path to success is simple in theory but hard to execute. They need to prevent Shai from easily switching on to Turner and Haliburton and trap him early in the possession before he gets to his spot. The Pacers’ other defenders will then need to be sharp with their rotations to prevent an easy basket while being outnumbered, although forcing the Thunders’ secondary creators to score should be considered a win for Indiana.
If the Pacers manage to accomplish that and OKC continues to struggle with their shot, then they’ll have a shot at victory.
X-Factor: Myles Turner
Turner struggled against New York, as KAT basically got anything he wanted offensively. Chet isn’t as gifted of a shooter as Big Purr, so Turner won’t need to defend him as tightly on the perimeter. Still, Chet is more than capable of creating his own shot while also being a better passer than KAT, so Turner will need to be aware of other actions the Thunder might be running.
Moreover, the Pacers’ weakest link in their rotation is their centre depth, or lack thereof. Indiana has no reliable backup bigs behind Turner, so he needs to be counted on to play big minutes without getting in foul trouble. As mentioned before, Shai will hunt him relentlessly, and Turner needs to prevent giving up an easy switch by hedging and recovering or trapping the MVP.
Offensively, Turner will also need to continue hitting threes consistently. OKC is willing to give up open looks from the corner, especially for opposing bigs when Chet/iHart are more focused on defending the paint. I’m not sure how feasible it is to expect Turner to continue making 40% of his total threes and 50% from the corner, but those numbers can’t drop off drastically if the Pacers hope to pull off a historic upset.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
The Pacers will make this a competitive series with their innovative offense and ingenius coaching, but the talent mismatch will be too much to overcome. OKC is arguably the only team that can keep up with Indiana’s (the Thunder’s pace is actually higher than the Pacers’ these playoffs) speed, which will neutralize the Pacers’ main trump card.
Simply put, too many things need to go right for the Pacers to be crowned champs. Indiana needs to win the turnover battle, limit Shai’s effectiveness, and hope OKC continues to struggle shooting, while the Thunder should win simply by playing at the same level they have been the entire playoffs. It’s not impossible given the comebacks the Pacers have already pulled off, but there’s an inevitability to this Thunder team that makes it impossible to bet against.
OKC will finally win the title that once seemed assured, and their new Big Three will avenge the dynasty that never was.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock