By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-05-25 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
今年的NBA自由球员市场不会是休赛期的重头戏。一系列的续约已经将一些潜在的大牌球员从市场上移除，包括吉米·巴特勒三世，他在交易截止日被交易到金州勇士队后进行了续约。
有一些历史级别的球星，比如勒布朗·詹姆斯 (LeBron James)，可以根据球员选项成为自由球员。但是这些球员，包括前MVP詹姆斯·哈登 (James Harden)和九届全明星凯里·欧文 (Kyrie Irving)，都已经找到了自己心仪的下家，不太可能更换球队。
续约潮加上近年来合同金额的增长速度超过工资帽的适度增长，也意味着很少有球队拥有足够的薪金空间。正如ESPN的鲍比·马克斯 (Bobby Marks)一直在追踪的那样，只有重建中的布鲁克林篮网队拥有顶薪级别的薪金空间，而且可能没有其他球队能比非奢侈税中产特例（预计为1400万美元）支出更多。
不过，各支球队仍然可以通过有针对性的自由球员签约来填补需求。去年夏天，底特律活塞队以一年600万美元的价格签下了马利克·比斯利 (Malik Beasley)，并看着他作为球队重返季后赛的一员，在最佳第六人投票中获得第二名。紧随比斯利之后的是克利夫兰骑士队的泰·杰罗姆 (Ty Jerome)，他在自由市场上以略高于底薪的价格加盟，并在他的爆发后成为骑士队最终登上东部榜首的关键因素。这两名球员都属于今年夏天自由球员市场中涌现出的一批顶级替补或低端首发球员，自由球员市场将于美国东部时间6月30日下午6点正式开启。
让我们来看看我的前25名球员排名，根据他们的地位和可用性分为几个档次，并特别关注一些关键的自由球员，比如杰罗姆，他们很有可能在今年夏天转会。
第一档：不太可能离开的全明星球员（拥有球员选项）
- 勒布朗·詹姆斯
洛杉矶湖人队 | 前锋
球员选项
球员选项让詹姆斯和湖人队在今年夏天都拥有财务灵活性。在去年休赛期为了帮助湖人队避免二级奢侈税限制而接受了略低于顶薪的合同后，詹姆斯可以通过拒绝他5260万美元的球员选项来续签一份更高的合同。另一方面，如果詹姆斯再次降薪，湖人队可能会获得非奢侈税中产特例，如果他们想引进一名首发级别的内线球员。即使40岁了，詹姆斯仍然是全NBA级别的球员，他显然仍然是市场上最好的自由球员，他曾在2010年、2014年、2015年、2016年、2018年和去年占据这份榜单的榜首（深吸一口气）。
- 詹姆斯·哈登
洛杉矶快船队 | 控球后卫
球员选项
哈登是另一位可能获得全NBA荣誉的自由球员，他在去年夏天也签下了一份“1+1”的合同，第二年拥有球员选项。在以远低于顶薪的价格签约后，他有机会提高自己的薪水。哈登的球员选项价值3630万美元。或者，35岁的哈登可以选择拒绝这个选项，寻求一份更长的合同，以更低的起薪将他锁定到30多岁。无论如何，在回到洛杉矶并带领球队在常规赛中取得超出预期的表现后，哈登似乎肯定会留在快船队。
- 凯里·欧文
达拉斯独行侠队 | 控球后卫
球员选项
在三月份遭遇左膝前交叉韧带撕裂之前，欧文本有望在一份长期合同中提高他价值4300万美元的球员选项，但这次受伤让他的短期未来变得复杂。鉴于欧文很可能会缺席2025-26赛季的大部分常规赛，他有可能直接执行球员选项，并在康复后重新进行谈判。或者，独行侠队可能会仍然选择留下欧文，因为总经理尼科·哈里森 (Nico Harrison)在卢卡·东契奇 (Luka Doncic)的交易后明确表示了他的至关重要性。在受伤之前，欧文的状态非常好，而且33岁的他比这份榜单上排在他前面的其他两位全明星球员都要年轻一些。
- 朱利叶斯·兰德尔
明尼苏达森林狼队 | 大前锋
球员选项
在经历了一些早期的成长痛苦之后，兰德尔在常规赛末段的出色表现以及他在季后赛前两轮的强大表现是森林狼队重返西部决赛的关键。兰德尔在2021年与纽约尼克斯队续签的合同即将到期，他拥有一个价值2950万美元的球员选项，而他的表现已经超过了这个价值。森林狼队和兰德尔对于如何处理这个问题有多种选择。他可以选择拒绝这个选项并在自由市场上签署一份长期合同，或者选择执行这个选项并进行另一项续约，这将使森林狼队在处理另外两位排在我前25名自由球员（尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)和纳兹·里德 (Naz Reid)）时拥有更多的支出能力。
- 弗雷德·范弗利特
休斯顿火箭队 | 控球后卫
球队选项
与本档中的其他球员不同，范弗利特的选项年由火箭队自行决定，这是他两年前与休斯顿队签下的一份三年顶薪合同的一部分。考虑到范弗利特与火箭队的契合度，以及火箭队最终获得了西部第二的种子席位，拒绝这个选项并让他离开是毫无意义的。然而，随着奢侈税成为一个因素，休斯顿队可能希望用一份期限更长的合同中的更低的首发薪水来取代范弗利特价值4490万美元的选项，因为他已经31岁了。
第二档：正值当打之年的经验丰富的首发球员
- 迈尔斯·特纳
印第安纳步行者队 | 中锋
完全自由球员
今年的自由球员市场真正缺乏的就是这一类球员。特纳可以说是唯一一个有潜力成为全明星球员的高质量首发球员，而且他仍然处于职业生涯的黄金时期，年仅29岁。特纳对于印第安纳球队的关键作用，他们已经连续两次进入分区决赛，这给了他作为一名完全自由球员的巨大筹码。
一位球探说：“季后赛的进行方式已经巩固了他的地位。他们就是没有他的替代者。”
步行者队需要谨慎对待特纳的首发薪水。印第安纳将带着12名身背合同的球员进入自由球员市场，距离预计的奢侈税线大约还有2000万美元，而特纳应该会要求比本赛季的1990万美元更高的薪水。
可能的下家： 关于特纳的交易传闻已经持续了很长时间，以至于几乎所有需要首发中锋的球队都与他联系在一起。对于勇士队和湖人队来说，先签后换会很复杂，但在步行者队和特纳无法达成协议的情况下，这两个球队显然都是合适的选择。
第三档：具备首发能力的受限制自由球员
- 约什·吉迪
芝加哥公牛队 | 控球后卫
受限制自由球员
在公牛队交易了扎克·拉文 (Zach LaVine)之后，吉迪在全明星周末之后的数据非常出色，场均得到21.2分、10.7个篮板和9.3次助攻，投篮命中率为50%，三分球命中率为46%。 （尽管这种水平的三分球命中率可能无法持续，但吉迪在常规赛中投出了职业生涯最高的38%的命中率，改变了对手防守他的方式。）
吉迪直到10月才满23岁，他有时间继续发展自己的比赛，达到能够比我们在2024年季后赛中在俄克拉荷马城雷霆队看到的发挥更大的季后赛影响力的程度。因为很少有球队拥有薪金空间，所以芝加哥队在谈判中应该拥有筹码。公牛队是否会使用它则是另一个问题。
- 昆汀·格里姆斯
费城76人队 | 后卫/前锋
受限制自由球员
与吉迪一样，格里姆斯在全明星周末之后也表现出色，这次是因为他被交易到了一支由于保罗·乔治 (Paul George)、乔尔·恩比德 (Joel Embiid)和泰雷斯·马克西 (Tyrese Maxey)受伤而缺少球星的76人队。格里姆斯在费城出战的28场比赛中，场均得到21.9分，效率很高（真实投篮命中率为59.2%），此外还有4.5次助攻和5.2个篮板。费城队在选秀抽签中上升到第三位，这让球队在不进入二级奢侈税的情况下与格里姆斯续约的能力变得复杂。包括选项和非保障合同在内，76人队将在与格里姆斯或另一位受限制自由球员格尔雄·亚布塞莱 (Guerschon Yabusele)续约之前，接近奢侈税线。
可能的下家： 格里姆斯会成为篮网队的目标吗？ 25岁的他足够年轻，可以成为下一支有竞争力的布鲁克林球队的一员。如果不是篮网队，格里姆斯的市场要么在非奢侈税中产特例，要么是通过先签后换达成。例如，根据夏洛特黄蜂队想要改进的速度，格里姆斯将是一个巨大的升级。
- 乔纳森·库明加
金州勇士队 | 前锋
受限制自由球员
在季后赛开始时被排除在史蒂夫·科尔 (Steve Kerr)教练的轮换阵容之外后，库明加在斯蒂芬·库里 (Stephen Curry)因伤缺席与森林狼队的第二轮比赛中成为了一名关键球员。库明加在系列赛的最后四场比赛中场均得到24.3分，投篮命中率为55%。
22岁的库明加应该随着时间的推移成为一名更稳定的贡献者。但考虑到库明加的技术组合与巴特勒和德雷蒙德·格林 (Draymond Green)的技术组合重叠，这种情况更有可能发生在勇士队之外的其他球队。而且金州勇士队有可能愿意进行先签后换交易以重新平衡阵容。“对他来说，最好的事情就是他们先签后换他，”一位球探说。
可能的下家： 与每位受限制自由球员一样，布鲁克林队的身影越来越大。如果篮网队相信库明加，他们就有能力围绕他来塑造他们的阵容。公牛队可以尝试达成先签后换，也许可以将尼古拉·武切维奇 (Nikola Vucevic)送到勇士队，并将库明加放在一个类似于德玛尔·德罗赞 (DeMar DeRozan)曾经在风城扮演的角色。
- 基翁·埃利斯
萨克拉门托国王队 | 后卫
球队选项
埃利斯上赛季场均只有8.3分（职业生涯新高），但他凭借他的三分球投篮（每36分钟5.9次出手，命中率为43%）和强大的抢断率（每36分钟2.2次抢断和1.2次盖帽），悄然成为了高级数据分析师的宠儿。作为马利克·蒙克 (Malik Monk)缺席时赛季末段的常规首发球员，埃利斯在全明星周末后场均上场28.2分钟，并且是萨克拉门托队的主要控球防守者。国王队拥有埃利斯230万美元的球队选项，但他们可能希望拒绝它，以便他在2026年成为一名受限制自由球员，而不是完全自由球员。
第四档：日渐衰老的首发球员
- 多里安·芬尼-史密斯
洛杉矶湖人队 | 前锋
球员选项
32岁的芬尼-史密斯对于这一档次来说还很年轻，但与特纳作为顶级完全自由球员之一并不完全匹配。虽然芬尼-史密斯在12月交易后在湖人队的比赛中有一半以上是替补出场，但他仍然场均出战首发级别的时间（28.8分钟），并且对于JJ·雷迪克 (JJ Redick)教练来说，在季后赛中让他下场是不可能的。湖人队很难找到芬尼-史密斯的替代者，并且希望确定一份长期合同，也许让他拒绝1540万美元的球员选项，转而选择一份更低的首发薪水，以保证他多年的合同。
- 布鲁克·洛佩斯
密尔沃基雄鹿队 | 中锋
完全自由球员
洛佩斯在四月份年满37岁，作为一名护筐者，他的速度已经放慢了，这是雄鹿队在他们对阵步行者队的首轮第五场失利中，自2022年3月以来首次将他从首发阵容中撤下的一个因素。但他在常规赛中的场均31.8分钟是近十年来的最高水平，而且洛佩斯整个赛季只缺席了两场比赛，同时投出了他通常的37%的三分球命中率。如果密尔沃基队出于经济原因而放弃他，洛佩斯应该在中产阶级市场上有很强的竞争力。球探们预计洛佩斯会有一些下滑，但仍然认为他在大多数比赛中都是一名有能力的首发中锋。
可能的下家： 如果鹈鹕队想要立即获胜并致力于锡安·威廉姆森 (Zion Williamson)——这两个假设都很重要——洛佩斯将是一个理想的前场搭档，并减轻发展中锋伊夫·米西 (Yves Missi)和卡洛·马特科维奇 (Karlo Matkovic)的表现压力。勇士队可以尝试通过先签后换或开放他们的非奢侈税中产特例，将这位前斯坦福大学的大个子带回湾区。
- 克里斯·保罗
圣安东尼奥马刺队 | 控球后卫
完全自由球员
39岁的保罗是上赛季六位打满所有82场比赛的NBA球员之一。 （他此后已经40岁了。）虽然保罗的场均8.8分是职业生涯的最低点，但根据GeniusIQ的追踪，他在至少接到1000次有球掩护的球员中，每次直接机会得分的百分比仍然排名第82位。由于马刺队可能会在选秀大会上用第二顺位签下罗格斯大学后卫迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper)，保罗可能会在今年夏天再次转会。
- 艾尔·霍福德
波士顿凯尔特人队 | 前锋/中锋
完全自由球员
霍福德即将迎来他的39岁生日，他仍然是凯尔特人队的关键人物，在攻防两端都具有多功能性。霍福德本赛季的上场时间增加到了场均27.7分钟——季后赛为31.6分钟——尽管波士顿队通过大量的休息比赛来保护他。最大的问题是霍福德想打多久。“对我来说，现在谈论这个还为时过早，”他在凯尔特人队在第二轮被尼克斯队淘汰后的离队采访中说。“我将花一些时间和我的妻子、我的孩子们在一起，仅此而已。甚至还没过一天。所以，我还有很多需要处理的事情。”
第五档：顶级替补和边缘首发
- 泰·杰罗姆
克利夫兰骑士队 | 后卫
完全自由球员
在为一支重建中的雷霆队效力的前五个NBA赛季中，杰罗姆只获得过一次场均得分上双，他在最佳第六人投票中获得第三名，这很大程度上是意料之外的。杰罗姆场均只上场19.9分钟就能得到12.5分，接近50-40-90的投篮命中率。（他在148次罚球尝试中，罚丢了4个球，最终以87%的命中率未能达到这一目标。）在达里厄斯·加兰 (Darius Garland)缺席系列赛的情况下，杰罗姆在克利夫兰队的季后赛首战中得到28分，随后在第二轮中，他的命运发生了变化。
杰罗姆对阵步行者队的投篮命中率为30%，三分球16投4中，跌落到肯尼·阿特金森 (Kenny Atkinson)教练轮换阵容的边缘。
由于骑士队面临着工资帽的压力，与杰罗姆续约可能不是优先事项。在球探们看来，杰罗姆毫无疑问会从他本赛季赚取的250万美元中大幅加薪。
可能的下家： 杰罗姆对于一支需要进攻的球队来说可能是一个很有价值的补充。我特别喜欢奥兰多魔术队如果能够交易掉替补控球后卫科尔·安东尼 (Cole Anthony)的话，就去追逐杰罗姆的想法。根据哈登的球员选项如何运作，快船队可能会在中产阶级中使用杰罗姆。
- 马利克·比斯利
底特律活塞队 | 得分后卫
完全自由球员
在过去两个赛季签下较小的为期一年的合同后，比斯利已经赢得了加薪。他加入了库里、哈登、安东尼·爱德华兹 (Anthony Edwards)和克莱·汤普森 (Klay Thompson)的行列，成为NBA历史上第五位在一个赛季中投进300个三分球的球员，并最终在最佳第六人投票中排名第二。既然凯德·康宁汉姆 (Cade Cunningham)因入选全NBA阵容而触发了30%的顶薪续约，活塞队可能没有薪金空间用于续约比斯利，这可能会将他们限制在以非奢侈税中产阶级作为新合同起点的范围之内。但是很少有球队拥有击败这份报价的薪金空间。预计他将在本赛季赚取的600万美元的基础上加薪。
- 纳兹·里德
明尼苏达森林狼队 | 前锋/中锋
球员选项
在被评为最佳第六人一年后，里德本赛季的场均得分、篮板和助攻实际上都更高，尽管效率略有下降。里德作为第三名内线球员产生了重大影响，但他可能会在防守端被拉开。缺乏薪金空间应该有助于森林狼队应对里德价值1500万美元的球员选项。双方可以同意执行该选项，然后在此基础上建立长期续约，以将这位球迷最喜爱的球员留在明尼苏达州。
- 卡里斯·勒韦尔
亚特兰大老鹰队 | 后卫/前锋
完全自由球员
在本赛季为克利夫兰效力的角色有所减少（部分原因是杰罗姆的崛起）之后，勒韦尔在二月份被交易到亚特兰大，当时骑士队在交易截止日增加了德安德烈·亨特 (De’Andre Hunter)。勒韦尔为老鹰队打出了高效的表现，因为他们进入了附加赛，场均得到14.9分，并以职业生涯中迄今为止最好的真实投篮命中率（58.2%）结束了比赛。勒韦尔也已经发展成为一名出色的外线防守者，利用了他6英尺6英寸的身高优势。
- 小加里·特伦特
密尔沃基雄鹿队 | 后卫/前锋
完全自由球员
特伦特试图效仿比斯利的做法，在发现他在自由球员市场上的选择有限后，与雄鹿队签下了一份最低工资的合同。特伦特在雄鹿队开局缓慢并失去了首发位置时表现糟糕，但他反弹了，在三分线外投出了42%的命中率，同时每36分钟尝试8.2次投篮。随后，特伦特在对阵步行者队的首轮比赛中两次得到30多分，在这些比赛中合计投进了17个三分球。26岁的特伦特正处于他的黄金时期，一些球队应该找到他在多伦多猛龙队赚取的1860万美元和上赛季的最低工资合同之间的平衡点。
- 桑蒂·阿尔达马
孟菲斯灰熊队 | 前锋
受限制自由球员
阿尔达马司职两个前锋位置，主要替补出场，本赛季在得分（12.5分）、篮板（6.4个）和助攻（2.9次）方面均创下职业生涯新高。他的三分球命中率创下职业生涯新高，为37%，弧内投篮命中率为60%。阿尔达马可能会成为一名顶级前锋，但在他作为2021年首轮选秀的最后一个顺位总共赚取了1000万美元的四年新秀合同后，他已经赢得了一份更有利可图的合同。
- 尼基尔·亚历山大-沃克
明尼苏达森林狼队 | 后卫
完全自由球员
两年前作为一名受限制自由球员签下了一份为期两年、价值900万美元的合同，亚历山大-沃克正准备大幅加薪。作为森林狼队的第三后卫，他场均出战职业生涯最高的25.3分钟，防守控球者并投出了38%的三分球命中率。亚历山大-沃克作为一名组织者的能力还不足以让他成为一名全职控球后卫，而且他在季后赛中已经过了三分线，但他应该会把他之前的工资提高一倍以上。
- 克里斯·布歇
多伦多猛龙队 | 前锋
完全自由球员
布歇悄然地从2023-24赛季的低迷中反弹，并在职业生涯中第二次获得场均得分上双，同时场均只上场17.2分钟。他投出了36%的三分球命中率和63%的两分球命中率，效率极高，同时也证明了他有能力在大型第二阵容中在侧翼进行防守。32岁的他可能属于一支有竞争力的球队，但布歇在魁北克上高中，并且作为2019年总冠军球队中唯一剩下的球员，他与猛龙队在一起很自在。
- 小蒂姆·哈达威
底特律活塞队 | 后卫/前锋
完全自由球员
尽管他打了77场比赛并全部首发，但哈达威对于底特律队令人惊讶的季后赛赛季的重要性肯定不如比斯利替补出场时那么重要。哈达威的效率只是一般水平，这是他职业生涯中最小的使用率（15.5%）。尽管如此，哈达威仍然是一名可靠的老将，能够来回切换两个侧翼位置，并且活塞队似乎可能会用一份新合同来奖励他。
- 丹尼斯·施罗德
底特律活塞队 | 后卫
完全自由球员
一个非典型的赛季见证了施罗德为三支不同的球队场均得分上双。他在篮网队开始了他的火热赛季，三分球命中率为39%，并在季后赛中为活塞队打出了重要的替补角色。在此期间，施罗德证明了自己与勇士队基于运动的进攻体系不相符。在12个NBA赛季中为9支球队效力后，如果底特律队认为杰登·艾维 (Jaden Ivey)的回归意味着他们不再需要在替补席上控球，施罗德可能会再次转会。
- 泰厄斯·琼斯
菲尼克斯太阳队 | 控球后卫
完全自由球员
去年夏天签下琼斯的那份最低工资的合同并没有像太阳队希望的那样奏效。他像预期的那样打出了水平，三分球命中率为41%，并且保持了他通常的高助攻失误比（4.7），但他无法帮助菲尼克斯队的进攻发挥其潜力。尽管他们拥有所有天赋，但太阳队的进攻效率仅仅略高于联盟平均水平，并且在全明星周末后琼斯只首发了四场比赛。他可能需要签下另一份短期合同来重建他的价值。一个有趣的选择是：如果亚历山大-沃克前往其他地方，琼斯是否会回到他的家乡森林狼队？
ESPN的蒂姆·邦坦普斯 (Tim Bontemps)为本文做出了贡献。
点击查看原文：NBA free agent rankings - Futures of LeBron, Turner, more stars
NBA free agent rankings - Futures of LeBron, Turner, more stars
NBA free agency won’t be the marquee part of this summer’s offseason. A series of extensions have taken some of the biggest potential names off the market, including Jimmy Butler III, who extended after being traded to the Golden State Warriors at the deadline.
There are a handful of all-time greats who can become free agents depending on player options, led by LeBron James. But these players, including fellow former MVP James Harden and nine-time All-Star Kyrie Irving, already have made their way to desired destinations and are unlikely to change teams.
The combination of extensions and contract increases outpacing the salary cap’s modest growth in recent years also means few teams will have cap space available. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks has been tracking, only the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets will have max-level cap space, and it’s possible no other team can spend appreciably more than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (projected at $14 million).
Still, teams will have the ability to fill needs with targeted free agent signings. Last summer, the Detroit Pistons nabbed Malik Beasley on a one-year, $6 million deal and watched him finish second in Sixth Man of the Year voting as part of their playoff return. Just behind Beasley in the voting was Ty Jerome of the Cavaliers, added in free agency for just over the minimum prior to his breakout that was key to Cleveland finishing atop the Eastern Conference. Both players are among a deep group of top-tier reserves or lower-end starters who will define this summer’s free agency period, which officially begins June 30 at 6 p.m. ET.
Let’s run through my top 25 players, split into tiers based on their status and availability, with a special focus on a handful of key free agents such as Jerome who realistically could be on the move this summer.
Tier 1: All-Stars with options unlikely to move
1. LeBron James
Los Angeles Lakers | F
Player option
A player option gives both James and the Lakers financial flexibility this summer. After taking slightly less than the max last offseason to help the Lakers avoid second-apron restrictions, James could re-sign for more by declining his $52.6 million player option. On the flip side, another James discount might allow the Lakers access to their non-taxpayer midlevel exception if they want to target a starting big man. Still an easy All-NBA pick at age 40, James clearly remains the top free agent on the market, having led these rankings in (deep breath) 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 and last year.
2. James Harden
LA Clippers | PG
Player option
The other potential free agent who earned All-NBA honors, Harden also signed a “one plus one” deal last summer with a player option on the second season. He has a chance to increase his salary after signing for considerably less than the max. Harden’s player option would pay him $36.3 million. Alternatively, Harden, 35, could decline the option in pursuit of a longer deal with a lower starting salary that would keep him under contract through his late 30s. Either way, Harden seems sure to remain with the Clippers after finding his way home to L.A. and leading an overachieving effort in the regular season.
3. Kyrie Irving
Dallas Mavericks | PG
Player option
Irving appeared in line to improve his $43 million player option on a long-term deal before suffering a left ACL tear in March that complicated his immediate future. Given Irving will likely miss the bulk of the 2025-26 regular season, it’s possible he could just exercise the player option and revisit negotiations once healthy. Alternatively, the Mavericks might still commit to Irving after general manager Nico Harrison made his paramount importance clear in the wake of the Luka Doncic trade. Before the injury, Irving was playing as well as ever, and at 33, he is a bit younger than the other two All-Stars ahead of him on this list.
4. Julius Randle
Minnesota Timberwolves | PF
Player option
After some early growing pains, Randle’s strong close to the regular season and his monster first two playoff rounds were key to the Timberwolves returning to the Western Conference finals. Wrapping up an extension he signed with the New York Knicks in 2021, Randle has a $29.5 million player option that he has outperformed. Minnesota and Randle have multiple options for how to handle it. He could decline the option and sign a long-term deal in free agency or exercise it in conjunction with another extension, which would give the Timberwolves more spending power as they deal with two other free agents in my top 25 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid).
5. Fred VanVleet
Houston Rockets | PG
Team option
Unlike the other players in this tier, VanVleet’s option year is at the Rockets’ discretion as part of a three-year max deal he signed with Houston two summers ago. Given how well VanVleet has fit with a Rockets team that earned the No. 2 seed in the West, declining the option and letting him walk would make no sense. With the luxury tax becoming a factor, however, Houston might want to replace VanVleet’s $44.9 million option with a smaller starting salary on a longer-term contract for the 31-year-old point guard.
Tier 2: Proven starter in his prime
6. Myles Turner
Indiana Pacers | C
Unrestricted free agent
Here’s where this year’s free agency really comes up short. Turner is arguably the only quality starter available who has never been an All-Star, and he is still in the middle of his career, at age 29. Turner’s indispensable role for an Indiana team that has reached the past two conference finals gives him significant leverage as an unrestricted free agent.
“With how the playoffs have gone,” a scout said, “he’s cemented his place there. They just don’t have a replacement for him.”
The Pacers will want to be careful with Turner’s starting salary. Indiana will enter free agency about $20 million from the projected luxury tax line with 12 players under contract, and Turner should command more than that after making $19.9 million this season.
Possible fits: Turner has featured in trade rumors so long that he has been linked to just about every team in need of a starting center. A sign-and-trade would be complicated for the Warriors and the Lakers, but both franchises are clear fits in the unlikely event the Pacers and Turner can’t strike a deal.
Tier 3: Starter-caliber RFAs
7. Josh Giddey
Chicago Bulls | PG
Restricted free agent
After the Bulls traded Zach LaVine, Giddey was incredible statistically following the All-Star break, averaging 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game while shooting 50% from the field and 46% on 3s. (Although that level of 3-point shooting likely isn’t sustainable, Giddey hit a career-high 38% for the regular season, changing how opponents defend him.)
Not 23 until October, Giddey has time to continue developing his game to the point where he can make a bigger playoff impact than we saw with the Oklahoma City Thunder during the 2024 playoffs. Because few teams have cap space, Chicago should have leverage in negotiations. Whether the Bulls use it is another question.
8. Quentin Grimes
Philadelphia 76ers | G/F
Restricted free agent
Like Giddey, Grimes jumped after the All-Star break, in this case because of a trade to a Sixers team playing without stars Paul George, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey due to injuries. Grimes averaged 21.9 PPG on strong efficiency (.592 true shooting percentage) in 28 games with Philadelphia, plus 4.5 APG and 5.2 RPG. Philadelphia moving up to No. 3 in the draft lottery complicated the team’s ability to re-sign Grimes without pushing into the second apron. Including options and non-guarantees, the 76ers will enter free agency around the luxury tax line before re-signing Grimes or fellow restricted free agent Guerschon Yabusele.
Possible fits: Could Grimes be a target for the Nets? At 25, he’s young enough to be part of the next competitive Brooklyn team. If not the Nets, Grimes’ market would either be at the non-taxpayer midlevel or via a sign-and-trade deal. For example, depending on how quickly the Charlotte Hornets want to improve, Grimes would be a huge upgrade.
9. Jonathan Kuminga
Golden State Warriors | F
Restricted free agent
After starting the playoffs out of coach Steve Kerr’s rotation, Kuminga became a key player with Stephen Curry sidelined against the Timberwolves in the second round. Kuminga averaged 24.3 PPG over the series’ final four games, shooting 55% from the field.
At 22, Kuminga should become a more consistent contributor over time. But that’s probably more likely with a team besides the Warriors given the way Kuminga’s skill set overlaps with those of Butler and Draymond Green. And it’s possible Golden State could be open to a sign-and-trade deal to rebalance the roster. “The best thing that happens to him is if they sign-and-trade him,” one scout said.
Possible fits: As with every restricted free agent, Brooklyn looms large. If the Nets believe in Kuminga, they have the ability to shape their roster around him. The Bulls could try to put together a sign-and-trade, perhaps sending Nikola Vucevic to the Warriors and placing Kuminga in a role similar to the one DeMar DeRozan once played in the Windy City.
10. Keon Ellis
Sacramento Kings | G
Team option
Ellis averaged just 8.3 PPG this past season (a career high) but was quietly a favorite of advanced stats thanks to his 3-point shooting (43% on 5.9 attempts per 36 minutes) and strong stock rate (2.2 steals and 1.2 blocks per 36). A regular starter late in the season with Malik Monk sidelined, Ellis averaged 28.2 minutes per game after the All-Star break and was Sacramento’s primary point-of-attack defender. The Kings hold a $2.3 million team option for Ellis but might want to decline it so he’ll be a restricted free agent rather than unrestricted in 2026.
Tier 4: Aging starters
11. Dorian Finney-Smith
Los Angeles Lakers | F
Player option
At 32, Finney-Smith is young for this tier but not quite a fit alongside Turner as one of the top unrestricted free agents. Although Finney-Smith came off the bench in more than half of his games with the Lakers following a December trade, he still averaged starter’s minutes (28.8 per game) and was impossible for coach JJ Redick to take off the court in the playoffs. The Lakers would be hard-pressed to replace Finney-Smith and will want to figure out a long-term contract, perhaps having him decline a $15.4 million player option in favor of a smaller starting salary that guarantees him multiple years.
12. Brook Lopez
Milwaukee Bucks | C
Unrestricted free agent
Having turned 37 in April, Lopez has slowed as a rim protector, a factor in the Bucks taking him out of the starting lineup for the first time since March 2022 during Game 5 of their first-round loss to the Pacers. But his 31.8 MPG in the regular season were his most in nearly a decade, and Lopez missed just two games all season while shooting his usual 37% from 3-point range. If Milwaukee moves on for financial reasons, Lopez should have a strong midlevel market. Scouts anticipate some regression from Lopez but still see a capable starting center in most matchups.
Possible fits: If the Pelicans are trying to win now and committed to Zion Williamson – two big ifs – Lopez would be an ideal frontcourt partner and take pressure to perform off developing centers Yves Missi and Karlo Matkovic. The Warriors could try to bring the former Stanford big man back to the Bay Area, either via sign-and-trade or opening up their nontaxpayer midlevel.
13. Chris Paul
San Antonio Spurs | PG
Unrestricted free agent
Paul, at age 39, was one of six NBA players to start all 82 games this past season. (He has since turned 40.) Although Paul’s 8.8 PPG were a career low, he still ranked in the 82nd percentile in points per direct chance among players who received at least 1,000 on-ball screens, according to GeniusIQ tracking. With the Spurs likely to add another ball handler in Rutgers guard Dylan Harper with the No. 2 draft pick, Paul might be on the move again this summer.
14. Al Horford
Boston Celtics | F/C
Unrestricted free agent
Approaching his 39th birthday, Horford remains a linchpin for the Celtics with his versatility at both ends. Horford’s playing time went up this season to 27.7 MPG – and 31.6 in the playoffs – though Boston protected him with copious off games. The biggest question is how long Horford wants to play. “For me, it’s just too soon to talk about that,” he said at exit interviews after the Celtics were upset by the Knicks in the second round. “I’m going to take some time here with my wife, with my kids, and just that. It hasn’t even been a day. So, there’s still a lot for me to process.”
Tier 5: Top reserves and fringe starters
15. Ty Jerome
Cleveland Cavaliers | G
Unrestricted free agent
Having averaged double-figure scoring just once in his first five NBA seasons for a rebuilding Thunder team, Jerome came largely out of nowhere to finish third in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Jerome averaged 12.5 PPG in just 19.9 minutes, coming close to 50-40-90 shooting. (He fell short by four missed free throws, in 148 attempts, finishing at 87%.) Jerome then scored 28 points in Cleveland’s playoff opener before his fortunes changed in Round 2 in a key role with Darius Garland sidelined to begin the series.
Jerome shot 30% from the field and 4-of-16 on 3s against the Pacers, falling to the fringes of coach Kenny Atkinson’s rotation.
With the Cavaliers in a cap crunch, re-signing Jerome might not be a priority. Jerome, in the eyes of scouts, unquestionably will get a hefty raise from the $2.5 million he made this season.
Possible fits: Jerome could be a value addition for a team in need of offense. I particularly like the idea of the Orlando Magic making a run at Jerome if they’re able to move backup point guard Cole Anthony. Depending on how Harden’s player option works out, the Clippers could utilize their non-tax midlevel on Jerome.
16. Malik Beasley
Detroit Pistons | SG
Unrestricted free agent
After playing on smaller, one-year contracts over the past two seasons, Beasley has earned a raise. He finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting by joining Curry, Harden, Anthony Edwards and Klay Thompson as the fifth player in NBA history to make 300 3-pointers in a season. Now that Cade Cunningham has triggered a 30% max extension by being named an All-NBAer, the Pistons likely won’t have cap space to use for re-signing Beasley, which probably will limit them to the non-tax midlevel as a starting point for a new deal. But few teams have the cap space to beat that offer. He is expected to get a raise on the $6 million he made this past season.
17. Naz Reid
Minnesota Timberwolves | F/C
Player option
A year removed from being named Sixth Man of the Year, Reid actually averaged more points, rebounds and assists this season, albeit on slightly weaker efficiency. Reid has had a major impact as a third big man, but he probably would be stretched defensively as a starter. That and the lack of cap space should help the Timberwolves navigate Reid’s $15 million player option. The sides could agree to exercise the option then build a long-term extension off it to keep the fan favorite in Minnesota.
18. Caris LeVert
Atlanta Hawks | G/F
Unrestricted free agent
After playing a smaller role in Cleveland this past season due in part to Jerome’s emergence, LeVert was dealt to Atlanta in February as the Cavaliers added De’Andre Hunter at the deadline. LeVert was productive for the Hawks as they reached the play-in tournament, averaging 14.9 PPG and finishing with far and away the best true shooting percentage (.582) of his career. LeVert also has developed into a quality perimeter defender, using his length at 6-foot-6.
19. Gary Trent Jr.
Milwaukee Bucks | G/F
Unrestricted free agent
Trent tried to follow Beasley’s lead, taking a minimum deal with the Bucks after finding his market limited in free agency. Trent was dreadful as the Bucks started slowly and lost his starting job, but he rebounded to shoot 42% on 3s while attempting 8.2 per 36 minutes. Trent then went for 30-plus points twice in the first round against the Pacers, making a combined 17 treys in those games. At 26, Trent is squarely in his prime, and some team should find the happy medium between the $18.6 million he made with the Toronto Raptors and this past season’s minimum deal.
20. Santi Aldama
Memphis Grizzlies | F
Restricted free agent
Playing both forward spots, Aldama averaged career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (6.4) and assists (2.9) primarily off the bench this past season. He shot a career-high 37% from 3-point range and 60% inside the arc. Aldama might top out as a third forward, but he has earned a more lucrative contract after making $10 million total on his four-year rookie deal as the final first-round pick in 2021.
21. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Minnesota Timberwolves | G
Unrestricted free agent
A screaming value on a two-year, $9 million deal signed as a restricted free agent two years ago, Alexander-Walker is in line for a big raise. He averaged a career-high 25.3 MPG as the Timberwolves’ third guard, defending lead ball handlers and shooting 38% from 3-point range. Alexander-Walker isn’t quite good enough as a distributor to serve as a full-time point guard, and he has slumped beyond the arc in the playoffs, but he should more than double his previous salary.
22. Chris Boucher
Toronto Raptors | F
Unrestricted free agent
Boucher quietly bounced back from a down 2023-24 campaign to average double-figure scoring for the second time in his career while playing just 17.2 MPG. He shot 36% on 3s and 63% on 2s in producing elite efficiency while also proving capable of defending on the wing in big second-unit lineups. At 32, he probably belongs on a contending team, but Boucher, who went to high school in Quebec, is at home with the Raptors as the lone remaining player from the 2019 title team.
23. Tim Hardaway Jr.
Detroit Pistons | G/F
Unrestricted free agent
Despite starting all 77 games he played, Hardaway surely wasn’t as important to Detroit’s surprise playoff season as Beasley was off the bench. Hardaway’s efficiency was only average in the smallest usage rate (15.5%) of his career. Still, Hardaway was a reliable veteran capable of toggling back and forth between the wing spots, and the Pistons seem likely to reward him with a new contract.
24. Dennis Schroder
Detroit Pistons | G
Unrestricted free agent
An atypical season saw Schroder average double figures for three different teams. He started the campaign on fire for the Nets, making 39% of his 3s, and finished playing an important reserve role for the Pistons in the playoffs. In between, Schroder proved a poor fit for the Warriors’ motion-based offense. Having played for nine teams in 12 NBA seasons, Schroder could be on the move again if Detroit feels like Jaden Ivey’s return means less need for ballhandling off the bench.
25. Tyus Jones
Phoenix Suns | PG
Unrestricted free agent
Adding Jones on a minimum contract didn’t prove the coup the Suns had hoped for last summer. He produced as expected, shooting 41% on 3-pointers and posting his usual high assist-to-turnover (4.7), yet he couldn’t help Phoenix’s offense deliver on its potential. For all their talent, the Suns were barely better than league average in offensive rating, and Jones started just four games after the All-Star break. He might need to sign another short-term contract to rebuild his value. One interesting option: Could Jones return to his hometown Timberwolves if Alexander-Walker heads elsewhere?
ESPN’s Tim Bontemps contributed to this story.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN