By Jeje Gomez | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-05-27 09:19:20
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
马刺应该探索所有可能性，尤其是在其他球队觊觎榜眼签的情况下，但向下交易似乎并不能带来太多好处。
选秀抽签的幸运让马刺获得了一个绝佳的机会。他们可以在星光熠熠的选秀大会上用第二顺位签位补强他们的年轻核心阵容。根据目前的各种流言和报道，他们的确打算这样做，而且来自罗格斯大学的迪伦·哈珀 (Dylan Harper) 看起来已经接近锁定这个选择。
直接使用这个选秀权是最合理的。如果要交易，那也应该是为了扬尼斯·阿德托昆博 (Giannis Antetokounmpo)，前提是他真的想离开密尔沃基，或者其他同等级别的超级球星。向上交易不是一个选项，除非马刺真的铁了心要得到库珀·弗拉格 (Cooper Flagg)，并向独行侠开出无法拒绝的“教父”级报价——即便如此，他们也可能拒绝。
但是，向下交易呢？ 是否有理由这样做？ 看起来不太可能发生，但对于如此宝贵的资产，必须考虑到所有可能性，特别是考虑到有两支迫切需要的球队可能愿意提出丰厚的报价。 爵士和奇才，都迫切需要一位能够成为球队门面的球员，并且都在选秀抽签中被篮球之神诅咒，他们可能会拿出一些有趣的方案，至少值得探讨一下。
爵士可以帮助马刺在短期内提升实力
爵士可以提供几种只包含他们年轻球员的交易方案，但最吸引人的一个肯定是以劳里·马尔卡宁 (Lauri Markkanen) 为核心的交易。 这位神射手前锋，加上凯昂泰·乔治 (Keyonte George)，以及第五顺位选秀权，对于爵士来说，放弃的代价似乎并不算太大，因为他们将放弃一位昂贵且不符合他们时间线的球星，并且可以用哈珀升级乔治。 经历了令人尴尬的糟糕赛季后，他们也能有所收获。 为了匹配薪资，哈里森·巴恩斯 (Harrison Barnes)、凯尔登·约翰逊 (Keldon Johnson)、布雷克·韦斯利 (Blake Wesley) 和 马拉基·布兰纳姆 (Malaki Branham) 必须被包括在内，这意味着失去阵容深度。 尽管如此，马尔卡宁将占据大部分前锋的出场时间，乔治将接管后卫的培养，而马刺仍然可以用第五顺位选秀权得到一位潜力巨大的贡献者。
为什么这有意义
如果马刺想立即赢球，那么在锋线上增加火力似乎是一个值得考虑的举动。 马尔卡宁已经28岁，薪水很高，而且不是球队的第一选择，这就是为什么爵士愿意与他分道扬镳的原因。 但是福克斯的年龄和天赋水平与他相似，但这并没有阻止马刺，他们只需要这位“芬兰神射手”成为球队的第三选择，并拉开球场空间。 犹他得到了他们想要的人，并与过去告别。
为什么这没有意义
马尔卡宁明年将获得 4400 万美元的薪水，这是四年合同的第一年。 追逐他对于薪资管理来说是一个巨大的变动。 他真的能带来这么大的改变吗？ 如果不是，并且他们需要更多天赋，马刺将很难找到其他球员。 乔治是一位不错的年轻后卫，而且无论谁在第五顺位被选中，都可能很出色，但马刺会在交易后立即拥有一支年龄更大、薪水更高的核心阵容。 至于爵士，他们可能想在做出任何重大举动之前，先看看自己球队中拥有顶级球员会是什么样子。
奇才可以帮助避免阵容拥挤并完善年轻核心
奇才队缺乏可以交易的明星老将，但可以在关键位置提供年轻球员和天赋，以及一个有价值的未来选秀权互换权。 亚历克斯·萨尔 (Alex Sarr)、 比拉尔·库利巴利 (Bilal Coulibaly)、第六顺位选秀权，以及 2030 年与太阳互换选秀权的权利，换取马刺的榜眼签，以及布兰纳姆、 朱利安·尚帕尼 (Julian Champagnie) 和 韦斯利，这可能是一笔有趣的交易。 马刺将得到维克托·文班亚马 (Victor Wembanyama) 的两位同胞，包括他的亲密朋友，并且将用新秀合同的高潜力球员来填补阵容深度。 库利巴利作为一名新秀，场均能投出 34% 的三分球，表现出了不错的潜力，但之后他的投篮能力大幅下降，不过他仍然是联盟中最具运动天赋的侧翼之一，并且已经是一名出色的防守球员，有潜力成为防守端的精英。 萨尔可以与文班亚马一起出现在大个阵容中，也可以作为替补，提供护框和空间。
为什么这有意义
对于马刺来说，只有当他们确信斯蒂芬·卡斯尔 (Stephon Castle) 将成为球星，或者他们认为在奇才队的选秀范围内有他们重视的球员时，这才有意义。 如果他们认为他们已经拥有了基石球员，或者可以在以后找到基石球员，那么以廉价的合同在需要的位置上获得年轻球员和潜力将是一个不错的计划。 对于华盛顿来说，只有当他们在经历了一段时间的徘徊后，现在想要获得一位球队的特权球员时，这才有意义。
为什么这没有意义
如果哈珀或者马刺队内排名第二的球员最终成为球星，那么他们将需要库利巴利和萨尔取得巨大的进步，第五顺位选秀权能够成功，并且选秀权互换对他们非常有益，才能使这笔交易物有所值。 阵容深度和资产固然重要，但顶级天赋至关重要。 对于奇才来说，耐心可能会带来回报。 预计下一个选秀班底将非常出色，如果他们摆烂并在选秀抽签中获得更好的运气，他们可以保留自己有潜力的球员，并在 2026 年找到一位新的球队门面。
正如以上例子所示——它们只是例子——为向下交易提供一个合理的理由是可能的，但很难让人信服。 还有其他的框架或交易伙伴，但最好的途径似乎还是保留选秀权，或者尝试交易得到一位超级球星。
一支在维克托·文班亚马受伤之前看起来有望参加附加赛的球队获得如此高的选秀权的情况并不常见。 只要他们的球队基石中锋保持健康，马刺队未来就会变得更好，因此通过选秀增加一位年轻基石的机会可能十年内都不会再次出现。 通过过度思考或跳过步骤来放弃这个机会似乎不是一个好主意。
点击查看原文：The (not strong) case for the Spurs to trade down
The (not strong) case for the Spurs to trade down
The Spurs should explore all avenues, especially with other teams coveting the No. 2 overall pick, but trading down doesn’t seem to offer a lot of benefits.
Lottery luck gave the Spurs a fantastic opportunity. They can select second on a stacked draft and add to their young core. By all rumors and reports, they intend to do exactly that, and Rutger’s Dylan Harper appears to be close to a lock to be the pick, at this point.
It makes perfect sense to just use the pick. If it’s getting traded, it should be for Giannis Antetokounmpo, assuming he actually wants to leave Milwaukee, or a superstar of that level. Trading up is not an option unless the Spurs truly go all in on Cooper Flagg and make the Mavericks a Godfather’s offer — and even then, they might pass.
But what about trading down? Is there a case for it? It doesn’t seem likely to happen, but all angles have to be considered with such a valuable asset, especially since two desperate teams could be willing to make big offers. The Jazz and Wizards, both in need of a face of the franchise and both cursed by the basketball gods at the lottery, could put together some interesting packages that are at least worth exploring.
The Jazz could help the Spurs improve in the short term
There are several deals the Jazz could offer that include only their young players, but the most intriguing one would have to be centered on Lauri Markkanen. The sharp-shooting forward, along with Keyonte George, and the fifth pick doesn’t feel like too much to give up for the Jazz, who would be moving on from an expensive star that doesn’t fit their timeline and would upgrade from George with Harper. They would also have something to show for after an embarrassingly bad year. Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Blake Wesley and Malaki Branham would have to be included to make the salaries match, which would mean losing depth. Still, Markkanen would absorb most of the forward minutes, George would take over as developing guard, and with the fifth pick, San Antonio could still get a high-upside contributor.
Why it makes sense
If the Spurs want to win now, adding firepower in the frontcourt seems like a worthwhile move. Markkanen is 28, expensive, and not a first option, which is why the Jazz would be willing to part with him. But Fox is of a similar age and talent level, and that didn’t dissuade San Antonio, which would only need The Finnisher to be a third option who spaces the floor. Utah gets its guy and moves on from the past era.
Why it doesn’t make sense
Markkanen will make $44 million next year, the first of a four-year contract. Going after him is a huge move in terms of cap management. Is he that big of a needle-mover? If he isn’t and they need more talent, the Spurs would have a hard time finding other pieces. George is a nice young guard and whoever is there at five could be great, but San Antonio would have an older and more expensive core immediately after the trade. As for the Jazz, they might want to see what they have with a top-level guy in their roster before making any big moves.
The Wizards could help avoid a logjam and round out the young core
The Wizards lack a star veteran to trade but could offer youth and talent at key positions, plus a valuable future swap. Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, the sixth pick, and the rights to swap picks with the Suns in 2030 for No. 2, Branham, Julian Champagnie and Wesley could be an interesting deal. The Spurs would get two of Victor Wembanyama’s countrymen, including his close friend, and would fill out the depth chart with high-upside players on rookie deals. Coulibaly regressed heavily as a shooter after averaging a promising 34 percent as a rookie from beyond the arc, but is one of the most athletic wings in the league and a good defensive player already, who has the potential to be elite on that end. Sarr could play next to Wembanyama in big lineups and also serve as a backup, offering rim protection and spacing.
Why it makes sense
For San Antonio, this only makes sense if they are convinced Stephon Castle is a star in the making or there’s someone they value in the range of the Wizards’ pick. If they think they have their cornerstones in place or can find one later, getting youth and upside at positions of need on cheap contracts would be a good plan. For Washington, this only makes sense if they want to secure a franchise guy now after being in limbo for a while.
Why it doesn’t make sense
If Harper or whoever the Spurs have second in their board becomes a star, they would need big leaps by Coulibaly and Sarr, the fifth pick to be a hit and the swap to be hugely beneficial to make the move worthwhile. Depth and assets are great, but top-level talent is essential. For the Wizards, patience could pay off. The next class is projected to be great and they could keep their interesting prospects and find a new face of the franchise in 2026 if they tank and get luckier in the lottery.
As the above examples — and they are just that: examples — show, it’s possible to make a rational case for trading down, but it’s hard to make a convincing one. There are other frameworks or trading partners, but the best path seems to be to just keep the pick or try to trade for a superstar.
It’s not that common for a team that looked on its way to the play-in until Victor Wembanyama’s injury to get such a high pick. The Spurs will be better going forward as long as their franchise center stays healthy, so the opportunity to add a young cornerstone via the draft might not come up again for a decade. Passing it up by overthinking or skipping steps doesn’t seem like a great idea.
By Jeje Gomez, via Pounding The Rock