By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-05-21 22:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
两支球队都没有预料到能走到这里，但胜者将成为名副其实的东部冠军。
啊哈，尼克斯和步行者之间的东部决赛，正如大家预测的那样！
考虑到纽约在常规赛中被波士顿横扫，以及印第安纳由约翰·哈利伯顿的儿子率领，这完全合乎情理。
这并不是要贬低任何一支球队，他们都理应站在这里。这印证了当今NBA的均衡性，并为球迷带来了一场充满风格碰撞、出人意料的有趣对决。
那么，维拉诺瓦尼克斯队注定要进入总决赛，还是印第安纳独特的体系会让他们难以招架呢？
让我们拭目以待。
关键问题
谁来防守布伦森，这会对对位产生什么影响？
与往年相似，杰伦·布伦森(Jalen Brunson)在本赛季季后赛中提升了自己的比赛水平。步行者需要限制他的效率，才能最大限度地提高获胜几率，但考虑到他制造的对位问题，没有好的解决方案。
去年，安德鲁·内姆布哈德是第一个被委以重任防守布伦森的人，但他很难限制这位尼克斯球星。内姆布哈德实际上在保持在布伦森身前方面做得很好，但后者能够随意到达他的位置，并展示了他为什么擅长投高难度投篮。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) May 21, 2025
因此，里克·卡莱尔迅速转向了阿隆·内史密斯——这一调整帮助步行者队完成了反击并赢得了比赛。逻辑表明印第安纳应该回到那种对位方式，但今年这支纽约队与去年那支球队的关键区别在于卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)的加入。
如果步行者让内史密斯首发对位布伦森，那很可能意味着帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆将成为唐斯的主要防守者。因此，西亚卡姆需要在挡拆中绕过掩护，并在他和唐斯打挡拆时换防布伦森，这对步行者来说将是比内姆布哈德防守布伦森更糟糕的对位。
另一种选择是让内姆布哈德首发对位布伦森，让内史密斯对位唐斯。印第安纳队不太容易受到布伦森-唐斯二人组的进攻，并且可以轻松地进行防守换防。当然，这里的担忧是让内姆布哈德换防唐斯，但后者在对阵后卫时表现挣扎。即使存在身高错位，像内姆布哈德这样烦人的防守者也会让唐斯很难出手，而且如果唐斯在低位对阵内姆布哈德时持球，印第安纳队可以进行包夹。
除了布伦森-唐斯二人组，尼克斯队也会试图攻击泰瑞斯·哈利伯顿(Tyrese Haliburton)，他很可能会防守米卡尔·布里奇斯。后者有作为第二持球手的经验，能够打挡拆，纽约队可以孤立布里奇斯对哈利伯顿，或者打侧翼-后卫挡拆，让步行者队的后卫换防到布伦森。话虽如此，这将使纽约队偏离他们首选的以布伦森/唐斯为中心的进攻，因此汤姆·锡伯杜想通过他的侧翼球员来组织进攻的意愿还有待观察。
最后，迈尔斯·特纳可能会放哈特一码，理论上这应该让他更靠近篮筐——纽约队在那里造成的伤害最大。在常规赛中，尼克斯队在全联盟的禁区尝试次数中排名前五（尽管完成率仅排在第 19 位），而印第安纳队在那个区域的失分数量上排在倒数前十。然而，步行者队将对手在篮筐附近的投篮命中率控制在 65.3%，在联盟中排名第八，因此印第安纳队的限制区将是本系列赛的关键战场。
纽约队将给印第安纳队带来很大的压力，但考虑到他们精英级别的进攻，这是可以预料的。步行者队需要在防守端站稳脚跟，同时运行他们的分层进攻——这种进攻可能更难让尼克斯队放慢速度。
尼克斯队将如何放慢步行者的速度？
本系列赛的结果可能取决于步行者队能在多大程度上施加他们独特的比赛风格。印第安纳队在所有季后赛球队中，每场比赛的传球次数（337.1 次）和助攻次数（29.7 次）均排名第一，而尼克斯队到目前为止的对手（波士顿和底特律）在这两项统计数据中均排名垫底。纽约队在某种程度上很幸运，因为凯尔特人队和活塞队的进攻经常因其缓慢、以单打为主的风格而陷入困境——没有一支球队利用尼克斯队在面对大量球的运转时难以轮换和恢复的弱点。
在对位方面，尼克斯队可能会让布里奇斯防守哈利伯顿，让OG·阿奴诺比防守西亚卡姆（对不起，猛龙队的球迷们）。不过，与纽约队不同，印第安纳队没有任何像哈特那样糟糕的射手，让唐斯可以放他一码。步行者队的首发五人组中有四人，在本赛季季后赛中的三分球命中率都超过了 40%，除了……不知何故的哈利伯顿。这意味着唐斯可能会防守特纳，让哈特防守内姆布哈德，让布伦森防守内史密斯。
乍一看，似乎没有什么明显的错位让步行者队可以攻击，尤其是在布伦森将防守印第安纳队进攻参与度最低的球员内史密斯的情况下。然而，步行者队最大的进攻错位是他们的体系：他们在每次进攻中都运行多个战术，这对一支不擅长沟通和无球换防的尼克斯队来说将是一个巨大的考验。
看看步行者队在这次进攻中安排了多少战术：
- 为内史密斯进行无球跑动
- 内史密斯向内姆布哈德的转移球
- 内姆布哈德-特纳挡拆
- 特纳-内史密斯掩护（撞击）
- 内姆布哈德-内史密斯挡拆（特纳掩护）
季后赛内姆布哈德用左手投篮。
哈利伯顿甚至都不需要触球。https://t.co/jWMIeV5r8N pic.twitter.com/5gvhYjcA9i— Caitlin Cooper (@ C2_Cooper) May 5, 2025
印第安纳步行者队的球的运转。克利夫兰必须限制突破，不能过度协防或轮转迟缓。pic.twitter.com/7EBUNN2O7r
— Steve Jones Jr. (@ stevejones20) May 5, 2025
步行者队在季后赛中的三分球命中率为 42.4%，考虑到他们无私的比赛方式，很容易理解原因。然而，这是一个不可持续的数字，因为他们在常规赛中的命中率只有 36.7%，但当季后赛的样本量如此之小时，尼克斯队不能指望它会回归。纽约队需要继续限制对手的三分球，因为在常规赛中，其他球队只有 37.6% 的投篮尝试来自三分线外，在联盟中排名第六。
印第安纳队风格的另一个标志是他们的节奏。在剩下的季后赛球队中，只有俄克拉荷马城雷霆的节奏更快，印第安纳队将加快比赛速度，并迫使纽约队限制他们快节奏的进攻。
令人惊讶的是，步行者队在本赛季季后赛中的转换进攻频率一直处于中游水平，他们也将更难进行转换进攻——尼克斯队在常规赛中允许的转换进攻频率（14.2%）在联盟中排名第六，这比骑士队和雄鹿队都好。阻止印第安纳队进行转换进攻的最佳方法是抢到进攻篮板，这引出了本系列赛的 X 因素。
X 因素：米切尔·罗宾逊
即使作为一名替补球员，米切尔·罗宾逊(Mitchell Robinson)在本系列赛中的重要性也不容低估。他已经重新确立了自己作为纽约队轮换阵容中关键一员的地位，罗宾逊的表现很可能会左右东部决赛的走向。
具体来说，罗宾逊的进攻篮板可能是放慢步行者队速度的关键。印第安纳队令人称赞的反击始于他们在本方区域的防守篮板之后，这导致了转换进攻的机会或由他们的速度创造的有利的交叉对位。
到目前为止，在本赛季季后赛中，尼克斯队在没有罗宾逊的情况下，进攻篮板率为 26.1%（第 20 个百分位），而当他上场时，这一比例飙升至 37.9%（第 97 个百分位）。后一个数字使印第安纳队的防守篮板率相形见绌，无论是在季后赛（71.8%，16 支球队中的第 8 位）还是在常规赛（71.7%，第 18 位）中，他们的防守篮板率都很平庸。
如果纽约队能够运行战术让罗宾逊换防到后卫或侧翼球员，那么整个纽约州的人都可能会大喊“BBQ 鸡肉”。如果尼克斯队同时派上唐斯和罗宾逊，情况也是如此，进攻篮板也将为纽约队的进攻增加一个额外的维度。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) May 21, 2025
话虽如此，球场的另一端对尼克斯队来说也将是棘手的。由于罗宾逊是一名不具备投射能力的大个子，当他在场上时，内线会被堵塞，这使得像布伦森这样的球员更难突破。在本赛季季后赛中，当他上场时，纽约队只有 27.5% 的投篮是在篮筐附近尝试的（第 37 个百分位），这与他不上场时的 32.4%（第 85 个百分位）相比，是一个有意义的下降。尼克斯队的三分球尝试次数保持不变，这意味着他们已经用效率较低的中距离投篮取代了高效的禁区投篮，结果是他们的进攻效率从 112.8（第 44 个百分位）降至 111.3（第 36 个百分位）。
即便如此，罗宾逊上场后，纽约队的防守效率提高了 12 分（从 116.4 降至 104.6），这在很大程度上弥补了他们进攻效率的下降——到目前为止。印第安纳队是一支比活塞队和一支不同步的骑士队更好的防守球队，尼克斯队需要尽可能地发挥他们的进攻，围绕唐斯打五外，以便布伦森可以突破到空旷的内线。
此外，让罗宾逊上场基本上会将哈特摁在板凳上。在这个季后赛的深处，让两名不具备投射能力的球员同时上场是站不住脚的，尼克斯队被迫用迪尤斯·麦克布莱德代替哈特，后者是一名更好的射手，但在比赛的其他方面都不如哈特多才多艺。不要惊讶地看到一些砍罗宾逊战术，尤其是在印第安纳队的阵容深度允许他们更自由地犯规的情况下。
最终，只有当罗宾逊的进攻篮板能够掩盖他有限的进攻创造力时，他才能让系列赛朝着有利于纽约队的方向发展。这是一个简单的原则，但只有时间才能证明哪一方获胜。
预测：步行者 6 场晋级
与去年相似，印第安纳队的速度可能太快，让纽约队难以招架。尼克斯队现在更健康、更有深度，但步行者队也是如此，他们比以往任何时候都打得更加默契和自由。纽约队的防守在前两轮表现得足够好，但他们还没有面临像印第安纳队这样的考验，印第安纳队将让他们陷入无数的战术，让一支难以执行复杂换防的尼克斯队感到困惑。
纽约队可以尝试启用罗宾逊，但他的影响力可能会受到卡莱尔的限制，卡莱尔是一位富有创新精神的教练，他比J.B.比克斯塔夫和第二排的乔更愿意做出调整。印第安纳队是一支更全面的球队，这是他们的另一个优势，哈利伯顿重现雷吉·米勒令人发指的窒息表现可能是尼克斯队的丧钟。
步行者 6 场晋级。 保证！！！ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1XEoXnd7mE&ab_channel=tedn23
点击查看原文：2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals preview: Pacers vs. Knicks
2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals preview: Pacers vs. Knicks
Neither team was expected to be here, but the winner will be a worthy conference champion.
Ah, an Eastern Conference Finals between the Knickerbockers and Pacers, just like everyone predicted!
It makes total sense, considering that New York went 0-4 against Boston during the regular season and Indiana is led by John Haliburton’s son.
That isn’t to take away from either team, both of whom deserve to be here. It affirms the parity in today’s NBA and gives fans a surprisingly interesting matchup with many stylistic wrinkles.
So, are the Villanova Knicks destined to make the finals, or will Indiana’s unique system be too much to handle?
Let’s find out.
Key questions
Who guards Brunson, and how will that impact the matchups?
Similar to past years, Brunson has elevated his game this postseason. The Pacers need to limit his effectiveness to maximize their odds of winning, but there are no good answers given the matchup issues that he creates.
Andrew Nembhard was the first tasked with guarding Brunson last year, but struggled mightily to contain the Knicks star. Nembhard actually did a good job of staying in front of Brunson, but the latter was able to get to his spots at will, before showcasing why he specializes in tough shot-making.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) May 21, 2025
Rick Carlisle thus quickly pivoted to Aaron Nesmith – an adjustment that helped the Pacers come back and win. Logic dictates that Indiana should go back to that matchup, but the key difference between this NY team and the one last year is the addition of KAT.
If the Pacers start Nesmith on Brunson, that likely means Siakam would be the primary defender on KAT. As a result, Siakam would need to get over screens and switch on to Brunson whenever he and KAT run pick-and-rolls, which would be an even worse matchup for the Pacers than having Nembhard guard Brunson.
The alternative is to start Nembhard on Brunson and Nesmith on KAT. Indiana would be less susceptible to getting attacked in the Brunson-KAT two-man game, and could easily switch defensively. Of course, the worry here would be having Nembhard switch onto KAT, but the latter struggles when being matched against guards anyway. A pesky defender like Nembhard would make it difficult for KAT to get his shot off even with the size mismatch, and Indiana could send doubles if Big Purr has the ball against Nembhard in the post.
Outside of the Brunson-KAT two-man game, the Knicks will also look to attack Haliburton, who’ll likely guard Bridges. The latter has experience being a secondary ballhandler who’s capable of running P&Rs, and New York could isolate Bridges against Hali or run wing-guard P&Rs to get the Pacers’ guard switched onto Brunson. With that said, this will get New York out of their preferred Brunson/KAT-centric offense, so it remains to be seen how much Tom Thibodeau wants to run plays through his wings.
Lastly, Turner will likely roam off of Hart, which should theoretically keep him closer to the basket — the area where New York does its most damage. In the regular season, the Knicks were top 5 league-wide in rim attempts (although just 19th in finishing) while Indiana was bottom 10 in amounts of shots conceded in that area. However, the Pacers kept opponent shooting at the rim to just 65.3%, good for 8th in the league, so Indiana’s restricted area will be a key battleground in this series.
New York will put a lot of pressure on Indiana, but that’s to be expected given their elite offense. The Pacers will need to hold up defensively while running their layered attack — one that might be even tougher for the Knicks to slow down.
How will the Knicks slow down the Pacers?
This series could come down to how much the Pacers can impose their unique style of play. Indiana ranks first among all playoff teams in passes (337.1) and assists (29.7) per game, whereas the Knicks’ opponents so far (Boston and Detroit) were at the bottom of both categories. New York was somewhat fortunate that the Celtics’ and Pistons’ offense were often bogged down due to their slow, iso-heavy styles — neither team took advantage of a Knicks squad that struggles to rotate and recover against heavy ball movement.
In terms of matchups, the Knicks will likely start Bridges on Haliburton and OG on Siakam (sorry, Raps fans). Unlike New York, though, Indiana doesn’t have any bad shooters like Hart for KAT to sag off of. The Pacers’ entire starting five is shooting over 40% from deep this postseason except for… Haliburton, somehow. That means KAT will probably be on Turner, leaving Hart on Nembhard and Brunson on Nesmith.
At first glance, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious mismatch for the Pacers to attack, especially since Brunson will be guarding Indiana’s least involved offensive player in Nesmith. However, the Pacers’ greatest offensive mismatch is their system: they run multiple sets on every possession, which will be a big test for a Knicks team that’s poor at communicating and switching off-ball.
Look how many actions the Pacers packed into this possession:
- Away for Nesmith
- Flip from Nesmith to Nembhard
- Nembhard-Turner PnR
- Turner-Nesmith veer (smash)
- Nembhard-Nesmith PnR (Turner seal)
Playoff Nembhard w/ the lefty dart.
Tyrese never even had to touch the ball. https://t.co/jWMIeV5r8N pic.twitter.com/5gvhYjcA9i— Caitlin Cooper (@ C2_Cooper) May 5, 2025
The ball movement from the Indiana Pacers. Cleveland has to contain drives, can’t overhelp or be late rotating. pic.twitter.com/7EBUNN2O7r
— Steve Jones Jr. (@ stevejones20) May 5, 2025
The Pacers are making 42.4% of their threes during the playoffs, and it’s easy to see why given their unselfish play. However, that’s an unsustainable number given that they only shot at a 36.7% clip in the regular season, but the Knicks can’t bank on regression when the sample size is so small in the playoffs. New York needs to continue limiting opponent threes, as only 37.6% of shot attempts from other teams came from beyond the arc in the regular season, good for 6th league-wide.
Another hallmark of Indiana’s style is, well, their pace. Only OKC plays at a higher pace amongst the remaining playoff teams, and Indiana will speed up the game and force New York to contain their high-tempo offense.
Surprisingly, the Pacers have been middle of the pack in transition frequency this postseason, and it’ll only become more difficult for them to run — the Knicks were 6th league-wide in transition frequency allowed (14.2%) in the regular season, which was better than both the Cavs and Bucks. The best way of preventing Indiana from running is grabbing offensive rebounds, which brings us to the X-Factor of this series.
X-Factor: Mitchell Robinson
Even as a depth player, Mitchell Robinson’s importance in this series can’t be overstated. He’s re-established himself as a crucial piece of New York’s rotation, and how Robinson performs may very well swing the East Finals.
Specifically, Robinson’s offensive rebounding could be the key to slowing down the Pacers. Indiana’s vaunted counter-attack starts in their own zone following a defensive rebound, which leads to either a transition opportunity or an advantageous cross-match created by their pace.
So far in these playoffs, the Knicks have a 26.1% offensive rebounding rate (20th percentile) without Robinson, which skyrockets to 37.9% (97th percentile) when he plays. That latter number dwarfs Indiana’s defensive rebounding rate, which has been mediocre in both the playoffs (71.8%, 8th out of 16 teams) and the regular season (71.7%, 18th).
If New York can run actions to get Robinson switched onto a guard or wing, the entire state might yell BBQ chicken. This would be the case if the Knicks play KAT and Robinson together as well, and the offensive rebounding would add an extra dimension to New York’s offense too.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) May 21, 2025
With that said, the other end of the court will also be tricky — but for the Knicks. Due to Robinson being a non-spacing big, the lane is clogged up whenever he’s on the court, making it more difficult for players like Brunson to drive. New York has only attempted 27.5% of its shots at the rim (37th percentile) when he plays during the playoffs, which is a meaningful decrease from the 32.4% (85th percentile) when he sits. The Knicks’ attempts from three stay the same, meaning that they’ve replaced highly efficient rim attempts with mid-rangers that are less so, and their offensive rating drops from 112.8 (44th percentile) to 111.3 (36th percentile) as a result.
Even so, New York’s defensive rating improving by 12 points (116.4 to 104.6) with Robinson playing more than makes up for their drop in offensive efficiency — so far. Indiana is a much better defensive team than the Pistons and an out-of-sync Cavs squad, and the Knicks will need to maximize their offense as much as possible by playing five out around KAT so that Brunson can drive into open lanes.
Moreover, having Robinson on the floor essentially glues Hart to the bench. It’s untenable to play two non-shooters this deep into the playoffs, and the Knicks are then forced to replace Hart with Deuce McBride, who’s a better shooter but less versatile in every other aspect of the game. Don’t be surprised to see some Hack-a-Mitch, either, especially since Indiana’s depth allows them to be more liberal with fouling.
Ultimately, Robinson can only swing the series in New York’s favor if his offensive rebounding can mask his limited offensive creation. It’s a simple principle, but only time will tell which side wins out.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
Similar to last year, Indiana’s pace might be too much for New York to handle. The Knicks are healthier and deeper now, but so are the Pacers, who are playing more connected and free than ever before. New York’s defense held up well enough in the first two rounds, but they haven’t faced a test like Indiana, who’ll put them in countless actions to confuse a Knicks team that struggles to execute complex switches.
New York could try going to Robinson, but his impact could be limited against an innovative coach in Carlisle who’s much more willing to make adjustments than J.B. Bickerstaff and the return of Second Row Joe. Indiana being a more versatile team is another feather in their cap, and Haliburton replicating Reggie’s infamous choke could be the death knell for the Knicks.
Pacers in 6. GUARANTEED!!!
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock