By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Bill Huan, Devon Birdsong | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-05-20 07:41:37
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
凭借天赋和运气，步行者队、尼克斯队、雷霆队和森林狼队一路高歌猛进。但谁有实力进入总决赛？
你认为进入分区决赛的球队是最强的吗？还是说伤病和坏运气在决定晋级者方面起了很大作用？
玛丽莲·杜宾斯基(Marilyn Dubinski): 我认为两者兼有。毫无疑问，雷霆队一直是西部本赛季最好的球队，但他们仍然非常年轻，丹佛掘金队看起来更有经验。与此同时，虽然伤病对掘金队造成了全面的打击，但他们整个赛季的表现都不稳定。明尼苏达森林狼队可能在常规赛中表现不佳，但当他们能够成为联盟中最好的攻防兼备的球队之一时，他们在西部决赛中就显得理所当然。在东部，伤病肯定对波士顿凯尔特人队和克利夫兰骑士队产生了影响，但尼克斯队和步行者队也不是软柿子。（谁知道兰德尔交易给唐斯会对双方都这么有益？）如果说有什么不同的话，那就是这个赛季的竞争可能比以往任何时候都更加激烈，这对联盟来说是好事。
马克·巴林顿(Mark Barrington): 进入分区决赛的球队就是最好的球队。伤病确实在一些系列赛中发挥了作用，但并没有决定系列赛的走向。如果库里上场，金州勇士队本可以使与森林狼队的系列赛更加有趣，但他们根本无法应对森林狼队在内线的体型和统治力。掘金队对阵雷霆队的系列赛打满了七场史诗般的比赛，但俄克拉荷马雷霆队的主场优势是决定性因素。在东部，骑士队无法应对步行者队在关键时刻的完美表现。杰森·塔图姆在凯尔特人队/尼克斯队第四场比赛中受伤令人遗憾，但在这不幸的伤病发生之前，系列赛已经向纽约倾斜。剩下的四支球队是联盟中最好的，即使他们不是常规赛的头号种子。
比尔·黄(Bill Huan): 剩下的球队都配得上分区决赛的席位。我在这些系列赛开始之前就选择了森林狼队和雷霆队，并且只稍微看好骑士队与步行者队的比赛。但在观看了步行者队剖析骑士队的比赛后，很明显，无论健康状况如何，他们都会获胜。
纽约尼克斯队是唯一让我有点犹豫的球队，因为波士顿凯尔特人队在每分钟的基础上仍然是更好的球队，而且如果说哪个系列赛会发生多场逆转，那就是这个系列赛。然而，即使塔图姆保持健康，尼克斯队也会以3-1领先，而且你必须称赞他们在任何一场落后20分的比赛中都没有放弃。
赫苏斯·戈麦斯(Jesus Gomez): 我认为伤病在西部半决赛中发挥了一定的作用，但最终，更好的球队晋级了。森林狼队比老迈的勇士队更有天赋和深度，虽然掘金队打出了精彩的战斗并且本可以晋级，但雷霆队是当之无愧的决赛选手。东部的情况则不同。步行者队和尼克斯队有可能分别击败骑士队和凯尔特人队，即使他们都保持健康。他们的表现令人钦佩。但我觉得，如果你让每个人都可用并发挥出100%的能力来重播这些系列赛，波士顿和克利夫兰会赢八到九次。唉，伤病是NBA的一部分，而且它们过去已经破坏了很多争冠之旅。
德文·伯德桑(Devon Birdsong): 我倾向于认为尼克斯队是最不值得进入分区决赛的球队，因为塔图姆的受伤几乎锁定了他们的系列赛，而且这个系列赛会打到最后，波士顿的主场优势可能会成为一个重要因素。然而，他们也一直在打聪明而顽强的篮球，这对于一支现代尼克斯队来说，写起来感觉很奇怪。我确实认为丹佛-俄克拉荷马雷霆队的系列赛判罚非常糟糕，但这些球队势均力敌。剩下的球队是事实上的最好的球队，这才是最重要的。我要说的是，我认为这种特定的球队组合绝对令人惊讶。这不是我曾经或能够预测的最终四强。
你认为东部决赛中任何一支球队的X因素是什么？你认为谁会晋级？
杜宾斯基: 尼克斯队拥有更好的顶级天赋，贾伦·布伦森和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯，但步行者队拥有更全面的深度。最终，公平与否，所有的目光都将集中在汤姆·锡伯杜(Tom Thibodeau)身上，他高强度的轮换，以及他的球员是否能保持健康或疲惫。如果出现任何问题，他将承担责任，但如果尼克斯队能够晋级，他的怀疑者将被证明是错误的，诅咒将被打破。不过，我仍然觉得步行者队的深度会胜出。
巴林顿: X因素是指球队中最好的球员和领导者吗？因为那显然是尼克斯队的布伦森和步行者队的哈利伯顿。如果你指的是一位可以在这次特定的对决中为球队提供意想不到的助力的球员，那么尼克斯队可能是乔什·哈特或米切尔·罗宾逊，步行者队可能是安德鲁·内姆布哈德。乔什·哈特是尼克斯队跳动的心脏，总是提供能量和持续的努力。我认为哈特与米切尔·罗宾逊并列，只是因为这个罗宾逊防守了骑士队所有五名球员并造成失误的片段。内姆布哈德在步行者队会得到很多机会，因为防守会集中在阻止哈利伯顿，而他会利用这个机会。
黄: 我的X因素都是角色球员，因为我预计明星球员会发挥出色，并且在很大程度上互相抵消。这就让替补席来发挥最终的作用，特别是安德鲁·内姆布哈德和乔什·哈特。注意到相似之处了吗？他们都是强硬的防守者，投篮不稳定，所以谁能投进更多的球可能会影响系列赛的结果。
最终，我希望步行者队能够晋级。纽约尼克斯队将很难限制印第安纳步行者队的速度和非传统的体系，而且尼克斯队更有可能受到伤病的打击。里克·卡莱尔也是比锡伯杜更好的教练，但这肯定会是一个漫长的系列赛，会打到6场或7场。
戈麦斯: 限制对手进攻引擎的球队应该赢得系列赛。完全阻止像哈利伯顿或布伦森这样的球员是不可能的，但纽约和印第安纳都有出色的外线防守者，可以让他们付出努力。这可能取决于哪个大个子在换防方面做得更好，以及谁能在防守到位之前获得轻松的得分机会。感觉步行者队应该在这些方面占据优势，所以如果他们能够加快节奏，我认为他们应该晋级。
伯德桑: 我几乎总是认为伤病是季后赛中最大的X因素，我坚持这个观点。在关于雷·阿伦的无限循环的总决赛投篮的讨论中，被遗忘的是托尼·帕克在第三场比赛中遭遇了腿筋受伤，这限制了他参加了剩余的系列赛。如果帕克在第四场和第五场比赛中完全健康，那次投篮可能永远不会重要。伤病可能发生在季后赛的任何阶段，而且它们几乎总是很重要。然而，到目前为止，所有四支球队都相当健康，所以我将选择东部决赛的教练调整。锡伯杜和里克·卡莱尔是仅有的两名获得过总冠军的教练，我预计这将是一场绝对的象棋比赛，由坚韧和基本功的大师进行。卡莱尔一直更具多功能性，所以我预计他会比更加僵化的锡伯杜和一支在整个赛季的大部分时间里都进行了如此缩减轮换的尼克斯队做得更好，他们可能最终会耗尽精力。我选择步行者队在6场比赛中获胜。
你认为西部决赛中任何一支球队的X因素是什么？你认为谁会晋级？
杜宾斯基: 两支球队的X因素都将是他们的大个子。谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和安东尼·爱德华兹会各司其职，但明尼苏达森林狼队季后赛成功的很大一部分原因是朱利叶斯·兰德尔找到了自己的状态。他、鲁迪·戈贝尔、以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因和切特·霍姆格伦都可以在攻防两端造成伤害，所以无论哪支球队能够控制油漆区和篮板，都将拥有整体优势，因为它会减轻明星侧翼球员的压力。最终，我认为主场优势（这可能是对阵掘金的关键）将使雷霆队晋级。
巴林顿: 西部决赛球队中最好的球员是雷霆队的谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大和森林狼队的安东尼·爱德华兹。雷霆队的情感领袖是亚历克斯·卡鲁索，他不是通过成为球场上最好的运动员来领导球队，而是通过成为最强硬和最努力的球员。他为像俄克拉荷马雷霆队这样年轻的球队提供了成为总决赛竞争者所需的领导力和韧性。我认为森林狼队的X因素可能是朱利叶斯·兰德尔，他让自己的表现来说话，他的力量和力量将使俄克拉荷马雷霆队难以招架。多特·迪文森佐，一位角色球员，可能更适合真正的X因素的角色，而且他有望在森林狼队中扮演关键角色。
黄: 为了延续我关于投篮不稳定的角色球员的主题，西部决赛的X因素将是杰伦·麦克丹尼尔斯和卡鲁索。当麦克丹尼尔斯打出好的进攻并且高效地得到20分时，明尼苏达几乎是不可战胜的，但他也很可能完全哑火。与此同时，我们看到了卡鲁索的防守多功能性，当他在第七场比赛中是约基奇的主要防守者时，但是如果他与森林狼队的大个子对位，他是否也有精力投篮？
俄克拉荷马雷霆队在对阵丹佛掘金队的某些时刻表现得非常挣扎，但他们对我来说很容易选择，不仅进入总决赛，而且赢得整个总冠军。整个球队在第七场比赛中驱散了一些恶魔，并且在前进的道路上会更有信心，而且我看到俄克拉荷马雷霆队在6场比赛中获胜。
戈麦斯: 切特·霍姆格伦能否打五号位并投中足够的球，迫使森林狼队打小个阵容？这是一个悬而未决的问题。俄克拉荷马雷霆队喜欢将他们年轻的大个子与以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因搭档，但在应对明尼苏达森林狼队的前场时可能会遇到一些问题。霍姆格伦在中锋位置给鲁迪·戈贝尔在防守端带来了各种各样的问题，但森林狼队绝对可以在进攻篮板上大快朵颐。这场比赛的明星是外线球员，但前场可能会决定谁能晋级。如果克里斯·芬奇说的是真的，那么比赛的判罚方式也可能发挥很大的作用。
克里斯·芬奇谈到对阵俄克拉荷马雷霆队：
“与这支球队比赛非常令人沮丧，因为他们犯规很多……他们一直在犯规。然后你不能真正触碰谢伊。这是一件非常令人沮丧的事情，并且需要大量的心理韧性才能克服。” pic.twitter.com/ZUAGlubcoa— Wolves Lead (@ TWolvesLead) February 25, 2025
伯德桑: 我倾向于说是安东尼·爱德华兹，但现在这是他的球队，对他的期望远高于X因素。他绝对必须在攻防两端都发挥出色，才能让这成为一个系列赛。考虑到他过去的一些季后赛消失的表现，朱利叶斯·兰德尔也符合这个条件。然而，我认为最有可能影响这个系列赛的是鲁迪·戈贝尔。过去，球队已经能够通过正确的压力和三分球组合来暴露他的移动能力，而雷霆队当然有能力做到这一点。戈贝尔将不得不在压制切特·霍姆格伦和以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因之间切换，在内线足够具有侵略性和有效性，以至于雷霆队无法在他的掩护下隐藏球员，并尽可能地限制谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大突入篮筐。这是一个很可能奠定他季后赛遗产的系列赛，无论好坏，这都带来了很大的压力。如果他只能做到其中一个（或更少），森林狼队就几乎没有希望。但如果他设法做到所有三个，他将在明尼苏达达到英雄的地位。我猜这个系列赛会打到6场或7场。俄克拉荷马雷霆队在6场比赛中获胜似乎最有可能。我希望明尼苏达在7场比赛中获胜。
点击查看原文：NBA Conference Finals preview: Unexpected matchups should make for thrilling series
NBA Conference Finals preview: Unexpected matchups should make for thrilling series
Through talent and luck, the Pacers, Knicks, Thunder, and Timberwolves have made a deep run. But who has what it takes to make it to the Finals?
Do you think the best teams made it to the conference finals, or did injuries and bad luck play a big part in determining who advanced?
Marilyn Dubinski: I think a little of both. There is little doubt that the Thunder have been the best team in the West all season, but they are also still very young, and there were times that Denver looked like a team that had “been there” against them. At the same time, while injuries across the board certainly hurt the Nuggets, they have been inconsistent all season. Minnesota may have underachieved in the regular season, but when they can be one of the best two-way teams in the league when focused, so they don’t feel out of place in the WCF. In the East, injuries certainly played a role for Boston and Cleveland, but the Knicks and Pacers are no pushovers. (Who knew the Randle-for-KAT trade would work out so well for both sides?) If anything, the field may have been more level than ever this season, which is good for the league.
Mark Barrington: The teams in the Conference Finals are the best teams. Injuries did play a role in several of the series, but didn’t decide the series. The Warriors could have made the series much more interesting with the Timberwolves with Curry playing, but they just didn’t have any answer to Minnesota’s size and dominance in the paint. The Nuggets vs Thunder had an epic seven-game series, but OKC’s home arena advantage was the deciding factor. In the East, the Cavs didn’t have an answer for the Pacers’ flawless play when the game was on the line. It was sad when Jayson Tatum went down in game 4 of the Celtics/Knicks matchup, but the series was already tilted in favor of New York before his unfortunate injury. The remaining four teams are the league’s best, even if they weren’t the top seeds in the regular season.
Bill Huan: The remaining teams are all deserving conference finalists. I picked the Wolves and Thunder to make it prior to the start of those series and only slightly favored the Cavs in their matchup against Indiana. After watching the Pacers dissect Cleveland, though, it’s evident that they would’ve won regardless of health.
New York’s the only team that gave me a bit of pause since Boston was still the better team on a per-minute basis, and if any series was going to feature a multi-game comeback, it would’ve happened in this one. However, the Knicks were going up 3-1 even if Tatum remained healthy, and you have to give them credit for not giving up in any game when they were down 20.
Jesus Gomez: I think injuries had a part to play in the West semis, but ultimately, the better teams advanced. The Timberwolves were more talented and deeper than the aging Warriors, and while the Nuggets put up a fantastic fight and could have made it through, the Thunder are a deserving finalist. The East is different. It’s possible the Pacers and Knicks beat the Cavaliers and Celtics, respectively, even if they were healthy. They performed admirably. But I feel like if you replay those series with everyone available and at 100 percent of their abilities, Boston and Cleveland win eight or nine out of 10 times. Alas, injuries are part of the NBA, and they have derailed plenty of title runs in the past.
Devon Birdsong: I’m inclined to say that the Knicks are the least deserving of the conference finalists, as the Tatum injury all but clinched that series for them, and that series would have gone the distance, with Boston’s home court advantage likely being a major factor. However, they’ve also been playing smart, gritty basketball, which feels weird to write about a modern Knicks team. I do think the officiating of the Denver-OKC series was grotesque, but those teams were pretty evenly matched. The teams that are left are the best in a de facto sort of way, and that’s really all that matters. I will say that I think that this specific combination of teams is definitely a surprise. It’s not a final four I would/could have predicted.
What do you think is the X-factor for either team in the Eastern Conference, and who do you think will advance?
Dubinski: The Knicks have the better top end talent in Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, but the Pacers have more well-rounded depth. Ultimately, fair or not, all eyes will be on Tom Thibodeau, his minutes-heavy rotations, and whether his players stay healthy or tire out. If anything goes wrong, he will take the blame, but if the Knicks make it through, his doubters will be proven wrong, and the curse will be broken. Still, my gut says the Pacers’ depth wins out.
Barrington: Does X-Factor mean best player and leader of the team? Because that’s clearly Brunson on the Knicks and Haliburton on the Pacers. If you mean a player who can provide an unexpected boost to their team in this particular matchup, then it would probably be Josh Hart or Mitchell Robinson for the Knicks and Andrew Nembhard for the Pacers. Josh Hart is the beating heart of the Knicks and always provides energy and consistent effort. I rated Hart as tied with Mitchell Robinson, just because of this play where Robinson defended all five of the Cavs players and caused a turnover. Nembhard for the Pacers will get a ton of looks because the defense will be focused on stopping Haliburton, and he will take advantage of the opportunity.
Huan: My X-Factors are all role players, as I expect the stars to show up and largely cancel each other out. That leaves the supporting cast to make the ultimate difference, and specifically, Andrew Nembhard and Josh Hart. Notice similarities? They’re both rugged defenders with an inconsistent stroke, so whoever can hit the most shots could swing the outcome of a series.
Ultimately, I expect the Pacers to advance. New York will have trouble containing Indiana’s pace and unorthodox system, and the Knicks are in more danger of being hit by the injury bug. Carlisle is a better coach than Thibs too, but this will definitely be a long series that goes 6 or 7 games.
Gomez: The team that limits its opponent’s offensive engine should win the series. It’s impossible to fully shut down guys like Haliburton or Brunson, but both New York and Indiana have great perimeter defenders who can make them work. It might come down to which big does the better job on switches, and who can get easy buckets before the defense is set. It feels like the Pacers should have the edge in those areas, so if they can play with pace, I think they should advance.
Birdsong: I almost always consider injuries to be the biggest x-factor in the postseason, and I’m sticking to that notion. Lost in the conversation about Ray Allen’s infinitely looped Finals shot is that Tony Parker sustained a hamstring injury in Game 3 that limited him for the rest of the series. That shot might never have mattered with a fully healthy Parker in games 4 and 5. Injuries can happen at any phase of the postseason, and they almost always matter. However, all four teams are fairly healthy thus far, so I’ll go with coaching adjustments for the Eastern Finals. Thibs and Rick Carlisle represent the only title-winning coaches in the mix, and I expect it to be an absolute chess match between maestros of grit and fundamental play. Carlise’s always been a little more versatile though, so I expect him to get the better of a more rigid Thibodeau and a Knicks team that’s played such an abbreviated rotation for most of the season that they may finally run out of gas. I’m going with the Pacers in 6 games.
What do you think is the X-factor for either team in the Western Conference, and who do you think will advance?
Dubinski: The X-factor for both teams will be their bigs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards will do their thing, but a big part of Minnesota’s postseason success has been Julius Randle finding his groove. He, Rudy Gobert, Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren can all do damage on both ends, so whichever team can own the paint and boards will have the overall advantage because it will take heat off their star swingmen. Ultimately, I think homecourt advantage (which may have been the key against Denver) will see the Thunder through.
Barrington: The best players of the teams in the Western Conference Finals are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the Thunder, and Anthony Edwards for the Timberwolves. The emotional leader of the Thunder is Alex Caruso, who leads not by being the best athlete on the court, but by being the toughest and hardest-working guy out there. He provides the leadership and toughness that a young team like OKC needs to become a finals contender. I think the X-Factor for the Timberwolves is probably Julius Randle, who lets his play speak for itself, and his strength and power will be tough for OKC to counteract. Donte DeVincenzo, a role player, is probably more fitting in the role of a true X-Factor, and he’s on track to play a critical role for the Wolves.
Huan: To continue with my theme of role players with inconsistent shots, the X-Factors in the West will be McDaniels and Caruso. Minnesota is virtually unbeatable when McDaniels has a good offensive game and scores an efficient 20, but he’s just as likely to lay a complete egg. Meanwhile, we saw the defensive versatility of Caruso when he was Jokic’s primary defender in game 7, but will he also have the energy to make shots if he’s matched up with the Wolves’ bigs?
OKC struggled mightily at certain points against Denver, but they’re an easy pick for me, not just to make the finals, but also to win the whole thing. The entire team exorcised some demons in game 7 and will have more confidence moving forward, and I see OKC winning in 6.
Gomez: Can Chet Holmgren play the five and hit enough shots to force the Wolves to go small? That’s a question that looms large. OKC loves pairing their young big with Isaiah Hartenstein, but could have some issues dealing with Minnesota’s frontcourt. Holmgren at center presents all sorts of trouble for Rudy Gobert on defense, but the Wolves could absolutely feast on the offensive glass. The stars in this one are perimeter players, but the frontcourts might decide who advances. And if Chris Finch is to be believed, how the game is officiated could play a big part too.
Chris Finch on playing OKC:
“It’s so frustrating to play this team because they foul a ton… they foul all the time. And then you can’t really touch Shai. It’s a very frustrating thing, and it takes a lot of mental toughness to play through it.” pic.twitter.com/ZUAGlubcoa— Wolves Lead (@ TWolvesLead) February 25, 2025
Birdsong: I’m inclined to say Anthony Edwards, but this is his team now and the expectations for him are much higher than that of an X-factor. He absolutely has to deliver on both ends for this to be a series. Julius Randle also fits the bill when considering some of his past postseason disappearing acts. However, I think it’s Rudy Gobert who is most likely to swing this series. In the past, teams have been able to expose his movement with the right combination of pressure and three-point shooting, and the Thunder are certainly equipped to do that. Gobert will have to alternate between neutralizing both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, being aggressive and effective enough in the post that the Thunder can’t hide players on him, and limiting SGA’s forays to the hoop as much as possible. It’s a series that probably sets his post-season legacy in stone, one way or another, which is a lot of pressure. If he can only manage one (or less) the Wolves have little hope. But if he manages to do all three, he’ll reach hero status in Minnesota. My guess is the series goes 6 or 7 games. OKC in 6 seems most likely. Minnesota in 7 is my hope.
By Jeje Gomez, Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Bill Huan, Devon Birdsong, via Pounding The Rock