[PtR] NBA选秀乐透抽签结果排名

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By Devon Birdsong | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-05-09 10:10:49

由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。

权衡一些可能的结果和反应

NBA选秀乐透抽签的时刻即将到来，虽然圣安东尼奥马刺队已经无缘季后赛，但在决定命运的彩球游戏中，他们绝对是不可忽视的力量。

显然，在经历了一个充满失利和伤病的赛季后，如果马刺队能够抽中状元签，所有球迷都会欣喜若狂。他们确实有大约7%（左右）的几率获得几乎可以确定会成为状元的热门球员库珀·弗拉格，但由于还有其他13支球队参与其中，所以有很多可能的赢家。让我们一起来看看其中的一些情况。

以下是我对几种不同的选秀乐透情景，完全公正的实力排名。为了简洁起见，我只会对每个类别的前五名（以及一个荣誉提名）进行排名。

首先，让我们根据常规赛战绩，来看看各队的实际抽签概率：

犹他爵士（2024-25赛季战绩17胜65负），14%

华盛顿奇才（18胜64负），14%

夏洛特黄蜂（19胜63负），14%

新奥尔良鹈鹕（21胜61负），12.5%

费城76人*（24胜58负），10.5%

布鲁克林篮网（26胜56负），9%

多伦多猛龙（30胜52负），7.5%

圣安东尼奥马刺（34胜48负），6%

菲尼克斯太阳（36胜46负），3.8%（选秀权通过与布鲁克林篮网的交易，归休斯顿火箭所有）

波特兰开拓者（36胜46负），3.7%

达拉斯独行侠（39胜43负），1.8%

芝加哥公牛（39胜43负），1.7%

萨克拉门托 国王（40胜42负），0.8%

亚特兰大老鹰（40胜42负），0.7% （选秀权归圣安东尼奥马刺所有）

*选秀权可能被转让给俄克拉荷马城雷霆（前6顺位保护）

选秀权可能被转让给亚特兰大老鹰（前12顺位保护）

提醒一下，选秀乐透的过程包括多次抽签，以确定NBA选秀的前四顺位。其余的乐透球队将按照他们在常规赛结束时的战绩倒序排列，依次选择第5到第14顺位。

当从14个球中抽取4个球时，不考虑它们的选择顺序，有1001种可能的组合，这基本上就是现实版的《阿呆与阿瓜》的经典桥段。

虽然一家外部会计师事务所的代表负责监督整个过程，并且在事先没有向房间外的人透露乐透结果，但这并没有阻止NBA球迷提出各种阴谋论，可以追溯到最早的NBA乐透抽签。

因此，考虑到所有这些，让我们做好准备，看看一些可能性！

“谁真正配得上？”排名

我倾向于站在《不可饶恕》中威廉·芒尼的立场上，配得上与否无关紧要。摆烂让人反感，输球并没有真正的道德含义，每个人都是贪婪和忘恩负义的，而且没有理由奖励坏运气。但是，为了辩论起见：

荣誉提名：达拉斯独行侠（球迷） —— 首先要说明一点，我不喜欢独行侠。我不喜欢他们的队服，不喜欢他们多嘴的前老板，而且我对他们在2006年西部半决赛后的厌恶，因为他们像个笨蛋一样扼杀了夺取马刺队2006年总冠军的机会而加剧。然而，我从未像现在这样为任何球队的球迷感到难过，尤其是在卢卡·东契奇(Luke Doncic)那笔愚蠢的交易之后，我开始同情达拉斯独行侠的球迷。因此，我还可以接受他们赢得状元签，但前提是他们首先要把尼科·哈里森赶出达拉斯。

  1. 犹他爵士 —— 尽管我不太喜欢独行侠，但至少他们有一两个我喜欢的球员（向德克·诺维茨基致敬，他击败了勒布朗·詹姆斯和热火三巨头），或者至少不厌恶的球员。我喜欢杰里·斯隆，我尊重约翰·斯托克顿的坚韧，但他们至少还有一次肘击大卫·罗宾逊头部的行为，让我无法冷静地看待他们赢得状元签。这个排名完全代表了他们对摆烂的投入程度。这是有史以来最糟糕的犹他爵士队，而且差距还很大。从技术上讲，我想他们是理所当然的。

  2. 华盛顿奇才 —— 这么多年来仍然支持这支球队的任何人，都应该得到一些东西。无论是状元签，还是被放在实验室里研究他们的余生，都值得商榷。这是给那些仍然穿着拉里·休斯球衣在电视机前欢呼的人。或者是给那些仍然在谈论韦斯·昂塞尔德的快攻传球有多么惊人的老球迷。不过，他们仍然有50%的可能性应该被送往精神护理机构。

  3. 波特兰开拓者 —— 在这一点上，他们的选秀历史已经有点像一个笑话了。格雷格·奥登？萨姆·鲍伊？拉鲁·马丁？我的意思是，这支球队就是无法摆脱困境。此外，他们因为没有尽可能地摆烂而获得了额外的分数。但我不能把他们排在第一位，因为1）他们已经有4次状元签了！而且2）他们总是可能做一些愚蠢的事情，选择弗拉格以外的球员。这些人就是不能被信任！

  4. 夏洛特黄蜂 —— 这个版本的黄蜂队从未获得过选秀状元，他们的线上伙伴们也乐于提醒大家。从技术上讲，之前的版本确实获得过一次，但那是1991年的事了。他们早就应该获得一次了，而且我理论上赞成这样做，如果这能确保黄蜂队的球迷不会第二次失去他们的球队。此外，如果迈克尔·乔丹卖掉球队后，他们立即获得了状元签，那会多么有趣？

  5. 圣安东尼奥马刺 —— 这可能不是本博客以外受欢迎的结果，但我鼓励其他球迷想想马刺队刚刚经历了一个多么不幸的赛季。他们的超级球星因为血栓而倒下。他们以一种不太理想的方式失去了球队历史上（甚至可能是NBA历史上）最伟大的教练。他们连续第6个赛季无缘季后赛，创下了球队历史纪录。我成功说服你了吗？没有？好吧，还是值得尝试一下。

“对库珀·弗拉格最好？”排名

荣誉提名：新奥尔良鹈鹕 —— 这个排名几乎完全是为了食物。弗拉格需要增加一些体重，而新奥尔良无疑是做到这一点的最美味的地方。我们已经看到了它对锡安的影响。然而，也有可能将弗拉格与锡安配对，对西南赛区的其他球队来说将是一个真正的问题，我无法支持这种结果。

  1. 犹他爵士 —— 爵士队绝对没有他们的战绩所显示的那么糟糕。他们通常是一支相当稳定和有能力的球队。他们拥有一群忠诚的（尽管有些病态的）球迷。而且他们拥有一位冠军建筑师丹尼·安吉在管理一切。另一方面，他们是摩门教徒。

  2. 费城76人 —— 理论上，这支球队将会很强大。但我个人永远不会把费城的体育迷强加给库珀·弗拉格。我们说的是那种为职业生涯终结性伤病欢呼和嘘圣诞老人的球迷。他看起来是个好孩子。他应该得到更好的。

  3. 休斯顿火箭 —— 绝对不行。我不在乎那支球队有多好，住在疾病蔓延的沼泽地里不会有任何好处。它是美国人口贩卖最严重的城市。唯一真正的好处就是没有州税，但是还有其他城市可以提供这一点…

  4. 多伦多猛龙 —— 猛龙队是另一支比他们战绩更好的球队，如果他们将弗拉格加入到布兰登·英格拉姆和斯科蒂·巴恩斯的组合中，他们将立即成为前场的一支劲旅。弗拉格将是这支在每个位置上都看似身材高大，但需要一些得分能力以及禁区防守的球队的完美补充，他几乎可以立即被提升为加拿大英雄的地位，为一群以礼貌着称的球迷所崇拜。这是一个不可否认的软着陆，但这也意味着住在加拿大，并以一种通常被称为“Loonie”的货币支付薪水。太可怕了。

  5. 圣安东尼奥马刺 —— 我们说的是有机会与维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)这样一位天赋异禀的球员并肩作战，球队的阵容比他们的胜场数更好，并且有望连续第三年获得NBA最佳新秀奖。再加上一个以保护球员隐私和像对待家人一样对待他们的球队，一群既有知识又有耐心的球迷，以及住在得克萨斯州的所有好处。弗拉格将有机会成为一支能够在未来十年以上统治NBA的球队的一员，可以选择他想要的社区参与程度，而且他已经表现出了对这座城市和球队设施的喜爱。唯一的缺点将是无法得到格雷格·波波维奇的执教，但听起来他仍然会在球馆里。

突破互联网/阴谋论实力排名

荣誉提名：华盛顿奇才 —— 这不会单独倾斜任何一个类别的天平，但如果奇才队获得NBA纪录的第七个状元签，你可以预料到互联网上会有些抱怨，甚至可能会有一些与阴谋论相关的讨论。无论愤怒程度如何，毫无疑问，笑话肯定会满天飞。

  1. 萨克拉门托国王 —— 这完全是关于纯粹的震惊因素。国王队有3.8%的微弱机会进入前4名并保留他们的选秀权，但他们只有0.8%的机会获得状元签，如果他们真的做到了，你可以预料到互联网会爆炸。这将是自2014年骑士队以1.7%的几率获得状元签以来，获得状元签的最低概率，并将超过魔术队在1993年创下的1.52%的纪录。纯粹的不可能性足以点燃互联网，但就像奇才队一样，对于NBA最不幸的球队之一来说，梗图也会像雨点般落下。

  2. 费城76人 —— 很难知道把这个放在哪里，因为愤怒和互联网流量可能会有很多种方式。76人队有足够好的几率让人产生太多的阴谋论，但这可能会导致从费城罕见的平静之夜，到交易传闻，合同传闻，以及基本上所有涉及乔尔·恩比德和保罗·乔治的传闻。随着扬尼斯·阿德托昆博，巴姆·阿德巴约和凯文·杜兰特也可能出现在交易市场上，我猜这将在未来几个月引发许多互联网上的刀光剑影。

  3. 休斯顿火箭 —— 好的，现在我们进入了一些真正有争议的领域。火箭队本赛季赢得了52场比赛，并最终成为西部联盟的第二种子。没有人会高兴看到一支拥有如此战绩的球队赢得状元签。而且由于火箭队只有通过与菲尼克斯的交易获得3.8%的几率，这仅仅是巧合，足以引发一些严重的阴谋推文。想一想。太阳队想交易凯文·杜兰特，并且正在寻找主要的选秀补偿。火箭队需要一位像凯文·杜兰特这样的得分手，并且拥有菲尼克斯的选秀权。凯文·杜兰特想去一支有竞争力的球队，而且碰巧来自得克萨斯州？关于联盟运作的理论几乎不攻自破。尤其是在本赛季早些时候由…进行的一笔令人费解的交易之后

  4. 达拉斯独行侠 —— 我很难在这个名单上的这个和第一名之间做出选择，而且我仍然不确定它是否不应该是一个完全的平局，但是在交易走他们的特权超级球星后，达拉斯独行侠获得选秀状元肯定会考验Twitter/X的服务器容量。这将是阴谋论和在线愤怒的几乎完美的融合，因为独行侠队有1.8%的机会获得选秀状元，这在某种程度上反映了2014年克利夫兰的运气所带来的阴谋论，只是愤怒/困惑/沮丧程度增加了三倍。再加上独行侠总经理/全民公敌尼科·哈里森仍然在达拉斯工作，这场对话肯定会失控并远远超出人类体面的范围。例如：你能想象如果哈里森然后立即转身交易那个选秀权以求现在获胜会发生什么？！这感觉是一个真正的可能性。

  5. 圣安东尼奥马刺 —— 听着，我不知道该怎么告诉你们，但马刺队在全联盟并不完全受欢迎。他们在长达二十年的竞争中树立了很多敌人，而文班亚马的到来并没有减少仇恨的喧嚣。这个结果将是极端的愤怒诱饵。你说的是马刺队在三年内两次赢得毫无疑问的状元签，不知何故设法跳过了没有潜在球队标志的那一年，并且以低于7%的乐透几率做到了这一点？文班生病，波波维奇中风只会增加联盟同情心的想法，或者联盟希望围绕文班亚马打造联赛的新面孔。如果马刺队以亚特兰大0.7%的机会以某种方式获得库珀·弗拉格，那真是天方夜谭。至少如果独行侠队得到它，将会对他们的球迷有一些同情。但是对于一个从外部看起来永远受到祝福的圣安东尼奥球队来说，这无异于向广大NBA球迷的幸福宣战。如果这种情况发生，准备好被鄙视到只有热火三巨头和杜兰特时代的勇士队才能与之媲美的程度。

这就是我现在所拥有的全部。如果你想在评论中提出你自己的实力排名，请随意。我相信有些情况我甚至没有考虑到。

点击查看原文：NBA Draft Lottery Outcome Rankings

NBA Draft Lottery Outcome Rankings

Weighing some potential results and reactions

It’s almost time for the NBA draft lottery, and while the San Antonio Spurs are out of the running in the postseason, they most certainly are not when it comes to the ping-ponging of lottery balls.

Obviously every Spurs fan would be overjoyed to land the top pick in the draft after a lost and medical-condition-filled regular season, and they do have a combined 7%(ish) chance at landing the all-but-guaranteed first pick in the compelling Cooper Flagg, but with 13 other teams in the mix, there are a lot of possible winners, so let’s take a look at some of them.

The following represents my completely unbiased power-ranking of several different draft lottery scenarios. For the sake of brevity I’m only going to rank the top five (and an honorable mention) of each category.

First, let’s take a look at the actual team-by-team odds, according to regular-season record:

Utah Jazz (17-65 record in 2024-25), 14%

Washington Wizards (18-64), 14%

Charlotte Hornets (19-63), 14%

New Orleans Pelicans (21-61), 12.5%

Philadelphia 76ers* (24-58), 10.5%

Brooklyn Nets (26-56), 9%

Toronto Raptors (30-52), 7.5%

San Antonio Spurs (34-48), 6%

Phoenix Suns (36-46), 3.8% (pick goes to Houston Rockets via trade with Brooklyn Nets)

Portland Trail Blazers (36-46), 3.7%

Dallas Mavericks (39-43), 1.8%

Chicago Bulls (39-43), 1.7%

Sacramento** (40-42), .8%

Atlanta (40-42), .7% (pick goes to San Antonio Spurs)

*Pick may be conveyed to Oklahoma City Thunder (Top 6 Protected)

**Pick may be conveyed to Atlanta Hawks (Top 12 Protected)

Reminder that the draft lottery process consists of multiple drawings to determine the first four picks in the NBA draft. The remainder of the lottery teams will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their records at the end of the regular season.

There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection, so basically a real-life Dumb and Dumber quote brought to life.

And though a representative from an outside accounting firm oversees the entire process, and no one outside of the room is informed of the lottery results ahead of time, that hasn’t stopped NBA fans from coming up with a variety of conspiracy theories, going all the way back to the very first NBA lottery.

So, with all that in mind, let’s strap in and look at some possibilities!

The ‘Who actually deserves it?’ rankings

I tend to find myself aligned with Unforgiven’s William Munny on this one, deserve’s got nothing to do with it. Tanking feels distasteful, losing carries no real moral implication, everyone’s greedy and thankless, and there’s really no reason that bad luck should be rewarded. However, for argument’s sake:

Honorable Mention: Dallas Mavericks (Fans) — Let’s get one thing straight, I don’t like the Mavs. I don’t like their uniforms, I don’t like their mouthy former owner, and my hatred of them post-2006 Western Conference Semifinals was only enhanced by the fact that they then choked away their shot at the Spurs’ 2006 championship like the chumps they are. However, I don’t think I’ve ever felt so bad for the fans of any sports team like I do Dallas Mavericks fans after the asinine Luke Doncic trade. As such, I’m okay-ish with them winning the first pick, on the condition that they run Nico Harrison out of town on a rail first.

  1. Utah Jazz — As much as I dislike the Mavericks, at least they had a player or two that I was fond of (shout-out to Dirk Nowitzki for taking down LeBron James and the Heatles), or at least didn’t loathe. I liked Jerry Sloan, and I respected John Stockton’s grit, but they’re at least one elbow to David Robinson’s head away from me being cool with them winning the number one pick. This ranking is solely representative of how dedicated they were to their tank. It’s the worst Utah Jazz team ever, and it’s not even close. Technically, they’ve earned it, I guess.

  2. Washington Wizards — Anyone who’s still rooting for this team after all these years deserves something. Whether it’s the number one pick, or to be studied in a lab for their rest of their lives is worthy of debate. This would be for the dude who’s still rocking a Larry Hughes jersey in front of his TV. Or for the old head who still talks about how amazing an outlet passer Wes Unseld was in-person. Still a 50/50 chance that they should be committed to a mental care facility though.

  3. Portland Trail Blazers — At this point their draft history has become a bit of a punch line. Greg Oden? Sam Bowie?? LaRue Martin??? I mean, this franchise just cannot catch a break/get out of their own way. Also, they get bonus points for not tanking as well as they could have. Can’t rank them first though because 1) They’ve already had the number one pick 4(!) times and 2) There’s always a chance they’ll do something stupid and take a player other than Flagg. These people just cannot be trusted!

  4. Charlotte Hornets — This version of the Hornets have never landed the number one pick in the draft, as their online cohort is only too happy to remind everyone. Technically the previous version did, but that was back in 1991. It’s pretty arguable that they’ve overdue, and I’m theoretically in favor of this if it ensures that Hornets fans don’t lose their team to relocation a second time. Also, how funny would it be if they were to land the number one pick right after Michael Jordan sold the team?

  5. San Antonio Spurs — This would not be a popular outcome outside of this blog, but I encourage other fan-bases to think about how unfortunate a season the Spurs just had. Their superstar went down with a blot clot. They lost the greatest coach in team (and possibly NBA) history in a less-than-ideal manner. They missed the postseason for a franchise record 6th straight season. Am I winning you over? No? Well, it was worth a shot.

The ‘What’s best for Cooper Flagg?’ rankings

Honorable Mention: New Orleans Pelicans — This ranking is almost entirely for the food. Flagg’s going to need to put a little weight on that frame, and New Orleans is arguably the most delectable locale to do that in. We’ve already seen the effect it’s had on Zion. However, there’s also a chance that pairing Flagg with Zion could be a real problem for the rest of the Southwest Division, and I just cannot root for that outcome.

  1. Utah Jazz — The Jazz are definitely not as bad as their record indicates. They’re usually a pretty stable and competent franchise. They have a dedicated (albeit pathological) fan-base. And they have a championship architect in Danny Ainge running things. On the other hand, Mormons.

  2. Philadelphia 76’ers — In theory, this team would be stacked. But I for one would never wish Philadelphia sports fans on Cooper Flagg. We’re talking about the kind of fans who cheer career-ending injuries and boo Santa Claus. He seems like a nice kid. He deserves better.

  3. Houston Rockets — Absolutely not. I don’t care how good that team is, nothing good can come from living in disease-riddled swampland. It’s the number one city for human trafficking in the United States. The only real upside would be the lack of state tax, but there are other cites that could offer that…

  4. Toronto Raptors — The Raptors are another team that’s better than their record, and they’d instantly be a handful in the front-court if they added Flagg to the duo of Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes. Flagg would be the perfect complement to a team that’s long at seemingly every position, but needs some scoring in combination with their rim defense, and he’d almost immediately be elevated to Canadian hero status for a fan-base that’s notoriously polite. It’s an undeniably soft landing, but it does mean living in Canada, and being paid in a currency commonly known as the Loonie. Yikes.

  5. San Antonio Spurs — We’re talking about getting to team up with one of the most freakish talents around in Victor Wembanyama, a roster better than their win total that would be looking at their 3rd straight NBA rookie of the year award. Throw in a franchise known for protecting their player’s privacy and treating them like family, a fan-base that’s both knowledgeable and patient, and all the benefits of living in Texas. Flagg would be set up to be part of a team that could dominate the NBA for a decade-plus, could choose exactly the level of community engagement he desires, and he’s already shown a fondness for the city and team facilities. The only downside would be not getting coached by Gregg Popovich, but it sounds like he’ll still be in the building.

The Break the Internet/Tin Foil Hat Power Rankings

Honorable Mention: Washington Wizards — This wouldn’t tip the scales in either category alone, but if the Wizards land what would be an NBA record 7th number one pick, you can expect some grumbling on the internet about it, and maybe even some conspiracy-adjacent talk. Regardless of the level of outrage, there’s no question that the jokes would absolutely be flying.

  1. Sacramento Kings — This would be all about the pure shock factor. The Kings have a slim 3.8% chance of landing in the Top 4 and getting to keep their pick, but they have just a .8% chance of landing the top pick, and you can expect the internet to explode if they do. Those would be the lowest odds to take the first pick since the Cavaliers had a 1.7% chance in 2014, and would top the record of 1.52% set by the Magic back in 1993. The sheer improbability would be enough to set the internet on fire, but like with the Wizards, the memes would rain down in equal measure for one of the NBA’s most unfortunate franchises.

  2. Philadelphia 76ers — It’s hard to know where to place this one, because the outrage and internet traffic could go a number of ways. The Sixers have good enough odds for too much tin foil hatting, but this could lead to everything from a rare peaceful night in Philly, to trade rumors, contract rumors, and basically any rumor involving Joel Embiid and Paul George. With players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Kevin Durant potentially on the trade market as well, I’m guessing this would start many an internet knife-fight over the next several months.

  3. Houston Rockets — Ok, now we’re getting into some really contentious territory. The Rockets won 52 games this season, and ended up the 2nd seed in the Western Conference. No one is going to be happy to see a team with that record win the number one pick. And since the Rockets only have 3.8% chance via a trade with Phoenix, it’s just fluky enough to fuel some serious conspiracy tweeting. Think about it. The Suns want to trade Kevin Durant, and are looking for major draft compensation. The Rockets need a scorer in the mold of Kevin Durant, and hold Phoenix’s draft pick. Kevin Durant wants to go to a winning team and happens to be from Texas? Theories of league machination pretty much write themselves. Especially after an inexplicable trade made earlier this season by the…

  4. Dallas Mavericks — I had real difficultly picking between this and the number one on this list, and I’m still not sure it shouldn’t be an outright tie, but the Dallas Mavericks landing the number one pick in the draft after trading away their franchise superstar for a baffling trade return would be sure to test Twitter/X’s server capacity. This would a be an almost perfect melding of tin foil hats and online outrage as the Mavericks have a 1.8% chance of landing the top pick in the draft, somewhat mirroring the conspiracy talk around Cleveland’s luck back in 2014, only tripled in furor/confusion/consternation. Add into the equation that Mavericks GM/Public Enemy Nico Harrison is still employed in Dallas, and there’s no way this conversation doesn’t rage out of control and far beyond the bounds of human decency. For example: can you imagine what would happen if Harrison then turned right around and traded that pick in a win now move?! It feels like a real possibility.

  5. San Antonio Spurs — Look, I don’t know how to break this to y’all, but the Spurs are not exactly beloved league-wide. They made a lot of enemies in their two decades of contention, and landing Victor Wembanyama did not lessen the cacophony of hatred. This outcome would be rage-bait in the extreme. You’re talking about the Spurs winning the no-doubt number one pick twice in three years, somehow managing to skip the year without a potential franchise icon, and doing it with less than a 7% chance in the lottery? That Wemby went down with a blood clot, and Gregg Popovich with a stroke would only add to the idea of league sympathy, or that the league wants to build around Wemby as the new face of the league. And heaven forbid the Spurs somehow land Cooper Flagg with Atlanta’s .7% chance. At least there would be some measure of empathy for Mavericks’ fans if they landed it. But for a San Antonio franchise that appears from the outside to be perpetually blessed, this would be nothing less than a declaration of war on the happiness of NBA fans at large. If this goes down, prepare to be despised at a level that only the Heatles and Durant-era-Warriors can compare to.

That’s all I’ve got for now. If you want to come up with your own power rankings in the comments, feel free. I’m sure there are scenarios I haven’t even considered.

By Devon Birdsong, via Pounding The Rock