By Eric.Fritts | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-05-05 02:00:32
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
NBA 教练的平均任期只有两到三年，但凭借身后强大的球队体系，米奇·约翰逊或许能够复制前辈们的长久执教生涯。
说到工作保障，NBA 主教练通常不是一个稳定的职位。根据你所参考的数据，教练的平均任期只有两到三个赛季。然而，在过去的 29 年里，由格雷格·波波维奇执教的马刺队是个例外，没有任何教练更迭。
如今，随着新上任的米奇·约翰逊正式接过教鞭，球迷们发现自己身处一片陌生的领域。尽管这对联盟中的其他球队来说司空见惯，但圣安东尼奥已经有两代人没有体会过新教练带来的不确定性了。
鉴于以上情况，我们有理由质疑约翰逊能获得多少耐心。在担任了近一个赛季的临时主教练后，他得到了一个很好的机会，可以在最小的压力下适应角色。但现在，试运行已经结束。
教练频繁更迭的部分原因是球队老板和管理层对失败的容忍度很低。当一个组织的总体目标是赢得比赛时，这并非完全不合理。然而，在 NBA 中，球员或教练的进步并不总是线性的。正如许多球迷所知，有时需要先推倒重建。虽然大家都明白这一点，但这并不意味着教练的工作在任何时候都是安全的。如果老板认为该做出改变，或者总经理需要挽回颜面、保住自己的饭碗，教练往往会成为第一个牺牲品。问题不在于教练是否处境危险，而在于他现在有多危险。
那么，约翰逊会遭受同样的待遇吗？圣安东尼奥会成为 NBA 教练旋转木马上的又一个成员吗？
但愿不会。教练在一个球队中获得长期执教机会的原因可以归结为两点，其中一点通常会导致另一点：强大的团队基础架构和总冠军。
需要特别注意的是，这里说的是“总冠军”（复数），而不是一个总冠军。事实上，从一个总冠军到下一个总冠军的间隔时间，似乎是教练职业生涯中最危险的时刻。回顾 2020 年，五位夺冠教练中有三位（弗兰克·沃格尔、迈克·布登霍尔泽、迈克尔·马龙）被解雇，沃格尔和布登霍尔泽都曾两次被菲尼克斯太阳队炒鱿鱼。这反过来印证了教练能够获得长期执教机会的第二个原因：从内部来看，尽管这些教练赢得了总冠军，但他们的球队并没有强大的基础。他们的教练没有多少犯错的余地，这表明他们的雇主缺乏信任。这并不是说所有的解雇都是不应该的，或者说所有的解雇都是理所当然的，但它表明了这些教练所处的动荡环境，即使赢得一切也不足以确保他们至少获得一点信任。
人们常说，教练不是会不会被解雇的问题，而是什么时候被解雇的问题。这是一项艰难、大多时候吃力不讨好的工作，当需要负责培养冉冉升起的新星时，就更加艰难。但是，在正确的教练和足够的信任这两种罕见的情况下，一切都会进展顺利。
格雷格·波波维奇是一个罕见的例子。他被聘为总经理，并由自己担任教练。从那以后，他所做的就是赢球。和约翰逊一样，他也是在非标准的情况下得到这份工作的，而且和约翰逊一样，他手下也有一位可以接管联盟的划时代超级球星，即 文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama) ，简称文班。
另一个可以借鉴的例子是迈阿密热火队。尽管经历了一些激烈的时刻，勒布朗·詹姆斯几乎公开要求解雇他，但热火队仍然坚定地支持他们的教练埃里克·斯波尔斯特拉。这对所有相关人员来说都非常有效，斯波尔斯特拉也因此成为了联盟中最受尊敬、执教时间最长的教练之一。
约翰逊可以与斯波尔斯特拉进行比较的地方在于，斯波尔斯特拉拥有帕特·莱利的支持。作为一名管理层，莱利曾是一名拥有多个总冠军的主教练，他对自己的继任者充满信心和信任。斯波尔斯特拉与球队和莱利建立了良好的关系，在 13 年的时间里，他从录像分析师一路晋升为主教练。现在，随着波波维奇担任同样的管理层角色，约翰逊是他选择的继任者，他自 2016 年以来就一直在球队工作。必要时，波波维奇可以成为他的导师和后盾。
在担任临时主教练期间，约翰逊的胜率为 .416。考虑到马刺队今年两位最好的球员都遭遇了伤病，这个开局还算不错。
时间会证明约翰逊能否与热火队和斯波尔斯特拉有更多的相似之处。目前，他拥有一个强大的球队的支持，并且似乎有足够的空间与他的年轻球星们一起成长和学习。我们希望他能成为另一个长期投资，马刺队可以继续规避 NBA 在聘用和解雇教练方面残酷的趋势。剩下的就看他自己的了。
点击查看原文：Job security is sparse for NBA coaches, will Mitch Johnson be an exception?
Job security is sparse for NBA coaches, will Mitch Johnson be an exception?
NBA coaches only last two to three years on average, but with a strong organization behind him, Mitch Johnson might be able to replicate the longevity of those before him.
In terms of job security, the NBA head coach is typically not a safe position to hold. Depending on what data you look at, coaches on average only hold on to their jobs for two to three seasons. However, over the past 29 years, the Spurs with Gregg Popovich have been an outlier with no turnover whatsoever.
Now, as newly appointed Mitch Johnson officially takes the reins, fans find themselves in foreign territory. Albeit quite familiar to the rest of the league, San Antonio is two generations removed from having to countenance the uncertainty of a new coach.
Given the previous, it’s fair to question how much of a runway Johnson will be given. Having served the better part of a season as the Interim Head Coach, it was a great opportunity to get his feet wet with minimal pressure. But now, the practice run is over.
Part of the reason for high coach turnover is ownership and team executives’ low tolerance for failure. Which isn’t a totally unfair quality to have when an organization’s overall goal is to win basketball games. However, progress in the NBA isn’t always linear, with players or coaches. As many fans know, sometimes things need to be torn down in order to build them back up. And while that is understood by all, it doesn’t mean coaches’ jobs are safe at any point in the process and can often be the first to go if ownership feels it’s time for a change or if a general manager needs to save face and their own job. It’s not a matter of if a coach is on the hot seat, but how hot it currently is.
So, will Johnson be subject to that same treatment, and will San Antonio then be another contributor to the NBA coaching carousel?
Hopefully not. What gives a coach longevity with an organization can be boiled down to two things and one of which can usually lead to the other: a strong foundational team infrastructure and championships.
It’s important to note that it is distinctly “championships” (plural) and not one championship. In fact, it seems the time from one ring to the next can actually be the most dangerous time in a coach’s career. Going back to 2020, three of the five championship coaches (Frank Vogel, Mike Budenholzer, Michael Malone) have been fired, with Vogel and Budenholzer being served termination papers twice, both by the Phoenix Suns. This inversely professes the second reason a coach will find longevity. Internally, although these coaches won championships, their organizations were not foundational strong. Their coaches didn’t have much margin for error, which shows a lack of trust from their employers. Not to say that all of the firings were undeserved or that all were deserved, but it shows the fickle environment these coaches find themselves in when winning it all isn’t enough to secure at least a little benefit of the doubt.
It’s often said that it’s not if a coach gets fired, but when. It’s a tough, mostly thankless job, and can be even tougher when responsible for a flowering superstar(s). But, in the rare circumstances of the right coach and the right amount of trust, it can work out quite well.
Gregg Popovich was a rare scenario. He was hired on as the GM and given the coaching job by himself. From there, all he did was win. Like Johnson, it was non-standard circumstances that landed him the job, and like Johnson, he had a generational superstar ready to take over the league.
Another situation to look at is in Miami. Despite a few heated moments and Lebron James all but calling for him to be fired, the Heat stood by their choice of Erik Spoelstra as the coach. It worked out quite well for all involved, and Spoelstra is respected as one of the best and longest tenured coaches in the league.
The parallel that can be drawn to Johnson here is what Spoelstra had going for him, Pat Reilly. Reilly, as an executive, was a former coach with several rings and had full faith and trust in his chosen successor. Spoelstra built a rapport with the team and Reilly, working his way up from the video room to head coach over the course of 13 years. Now, as Popovich steps into that same executive role, Johnson is his chosen successor, having been with the organization since 2016. He can serve as a guide and a shield for him when necessary.
Over the interim period, Johnson had a .416 winning percentage. Not bad for a start, given the injuries the Spurs dealt with this year to their two best players.
Time will tell if Johnson can have more parallels with the Heat and Spoelstra. Right now, he has the backing of a strong organization and appears to have the room to grow and learn alongside his young stars. The hope is that he will be another long-term investment and the Spurs can continue to skirt the NBA’s unforgiving trend of hiring and firing coaches. The rest is up to him.
By Eric.Fritts, via Pounding The Rock
