By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-04-28 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
2025年NBA选秀大会还有不到两个月（6月25-26日），既然我们已经知道哪些球员可能会听到自己的名字被念到，现在是时候来看看前30位潜力新秀的统计数据预测了。
毫无疑问，杜克大学的库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)是我的模型中排名第一的潜力新秀。该模型结合了NCAA或非NBA职业联赛的统计表现，以及年龄和球员在ESPN前100名新秀中的排名，以评估他们的长期价值。
然而，表现出色的不仅仅是弗拉格。其他三名大一新生，包括他的队友康·纽佩尔(Kon Knueppel)，也在我的仅统计数据预测版本中排名前10，同时也位列前100名。当顶级新秀有这种共识时，球员通常能很好地适应NBA。有关我的模型如何运作的更多信息，请点击这里。
接下来，让我们来看看在早期参选截止日期之后，目前在ESPN前100名中排名的球员中，前30名的预测，其中包括一些意想不到的名字。
NBA选秀报道：
卡哇伊？皮蓬？弗拉格的NBA模板
1. 库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)，前锋，杜克大学
前100名： 第1名
统计： 第1名
共识： 5.3 WARP
正如我在与蒂姆·邦坦普斯(Tim Bontemps)撰写的一篇关于我们在NBA常规赛后期看到的为避免获胜的创造性努力的故事中所写的那样，关于弗拉格的问题不在于他是否是今年最顶尖的新秀，而在于他在历史上的地位。除了两位预测优于弗拉格的状元秀（安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)和锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)）之外，卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)是唯一一位在我的共识模型中评分更高的球员。弗拉格是今年选秀中唯一一位在任何用于确定优势和劣势的类别中，评分都没有比同位置的平均NBA水准大学新秀低15%的球员。
2. 康·纽佩尔(Kon Knueppel)，后卫/前锋，杜克大学
前100名： 第9名
统计： 第2名
共识： 3.9 WARP
弗拉格的队友紧随其后，这是一个更令人惊讶的结果。如果严格根据大学表现来看，纽佩尔会下降几个名次，更符合他在前100名中的排名（第9名）。
然而，纽佩尔是在2022年或2023年参加耐克EYBL AAU比赛的所有新秀中预测最强的。他在2023年以35%的使用率打出了.642的真实命中率，表明他比在杜克大学与其他天才新秀并肩作战时，展现出更大的自主进攻潜力。
3. VJ·埃奇康姆(VJ Edgecombe)，得分后卫，贝勒大学
前100名： 第4名
统计： 第4名
共识： 3.9 WARP
与弗拉格一样，埃奇康姆是今年选秀中第二位在我的仅统计模型和前100名中都排名前五的新秀，这通常是一个强大的组合。虽然埃奇康姆在贝勒大学的唯一一个赛季中的进攻效率平平（两分球命中率为50%，三分球命中率为34%），但他填满了数据栏。埃奇康姆在篮板、盖帽和抢断率方面，预计至少比典型的NBA水准大学得分后卫高出15%。这种防守潜力应该会给埃奇康姆带来很高的下限，而他作为一名射手的发展将决定他的上限。
4. 迪伦·哈珀(Dylan Harper)，后卫，罗格斯大学
前100名： 第2名
统计： 第7名
共识： 3.7 WARP
哈珀与纽佩尔的比较正好相反。他的大学新生赛季表现更强劲，场均得到19.4分、4.6个篮板和4.0次助攻，考虑到他在罗格斯大学进攻中的重要角色（29%的使用率），效率也算不错。然而，哈珀在EYBL比赛中的效率并不高，将这些统计数据纳入考虑后，纽佩尔超过了他。特别是，哈珀作为一名大学终结者表现出色，两分球命中率达到57%，是所有外线一年级球员中最好的。
5. 以赛亚·埃文斯(Isaiah Evans)，得分后卫，杜克大学
前100名： 第43名
统计： 第3名
共识： 3.0 WARP
这个预测对我来说也很奇怪。埃文斯在蓝魔队替补出场，场均上场13.8分钟，但我的模型对他作为一名射手的潜力感到兴奋。这与埃文斯42%的三分球命中率关系不大，因为小样本（149次尝试）意味着他对NBA的预测在很大程度上回归到平均水平。然而，埃文斯每40分钟出手12次三分球，这使他在我的数据库中成为所有一年级球员中投射预测最高的球员。鉴于埃文斯除了投篮之外的贡献很小，他必须非常出色才能成为NBA轮换球员。理想情况下，他将以大二球员的身份回归并扮演更大的角色，我们将获得更多数据可供使用。
6. 杰里迈亚·费尔斯(Jeremiah Fears)，控球后卫，俄克拉荷马大学
前100名： 第5名
统计： 第20名
共识： 2.9 WARP
费尔斯是俄克拉荷马大学的进攻引擎。根据Stathead.com的数据，他31.5%的使用率是所有主要联盟大一新生中最高的，仅次于弗拉格。考虑到这个负担，费尔斯以平均效率得分的能力令人印象深刻。尽管如此，为了证明他在NBA中扮演类似角色的合理性，费尔斯必须提高28%的三分球命中率。一个令人鼓舞的迹象是：费尔斯罚球命中率为85%，这是NBA三分球准确率的重要指标。
7. 王牌·贝利(Ace Bailey)，大前锋，罗格斯大学
前100名： 第3名
统计： 第27名
共识： 2.9 WARP
在顶级新秀的统计数据大多表现良好的一年中，贝利是一个例外。特别是，由于贝利艰难的投篮选择，他的投篮能力并没有转化为良好的效率。根据CBBAnalytics.com的数据，贝利36%的投篮尝试是非禁区两分球，在全国排名第99百分位。虽然贝利以合理的43%的命中率投中了这些球，但这远不如他52%的三分球命中率有效，因为考虑到了额外的一分。在正确的体系中，贝利可能会成为一名进攻组织者，但错误的球队可能无法最大限度地发挥他的技能。
8. 诺亚·埃森格(Noa Essengue)，大前锋，乌尔姆拉蒂奥法姆（德国）
前100名： 第14名
统计： 第8名
共识： 2.6 WARP
既然埃森格已经进入乐透区，很难称他为黑马，但他仍然没有他的仅统计数据预测那么高，是选秀中排名最高的国际新秀。在竞争激烈的欧洲杯中，埃森格在短短23.7分钟的上场时间里，场均得到14.4分和5.3个篮板，两分球命中率为66%。这是在面对年龄大得多的竞争对手时取得的。埃森格直到12月才满19岁，这使他成为前100名中仅次于弗拉格的第二年轻的新秀。
9. 科林·穆雷-博伊尔斯(Collin Murray-Boyles)，大前锋，南卡罗来纳大学
前100名： 第11名
统计： 第14名
共识： 2.6 WARP
穆雷-博伊尔斯在南卡罗来纳大学第二年的表现太出色了，以至于球探们无法忽视。在全国最强的联盟中，穆雷-博伊尔斯场均得到16.8分和8.3个篮板，有效投篮命中率（60%）是SEC中最高的。穆雷-博伊尔斯身高6英尺7英寸，对于大个子来说偏矮，但根据我的模型，他填满了包含七个优势的数据栏，是所有新秀中最多的，仅次于弗拉格的六个。（孟菲斯大学后卫PJ·哈格蒂(PJ Haggerty)也有六个优势，但更多缺点，没有进入前30名。）
10. 卡斯帕拉斯·亚库西奥尼斯(Kasparas Jakucionis)，控球后卫，伊利诺伊大学
前100名： 第7名
统计： 第22名
共识： 2.6 WARP
亚库西奥尼斯的进攻有很多值得喜欢的地方。他是一名强硬的终结者，两分球命中率为56%，对于后卫来说非常出色。此外，亚库西奥尼斯84.5%的罚球命中率表明他可以提高他在伊利诺伊大学的32%的三分球命中率，并发挥他的组织能力。令人担忧的是防守。亚库西奥尼斯的抢断率低于后卫的平均水平，整个赛季只盖了九次。
11. 叶戈尔·德明(Egor Demin)，控球后卫，杨百翰大学
前100名： 第12名
统计： 第19名
共识： 2.4 WARP
德明的球场视野和身高（6英尺9英寸）相结合，创造了传球路线，这使他在前100名的新秀中拥有第三好的助攻预测。像亚库西奥尼斯一样，德明也得益于他的身高，成为后场一名强大的终结者，两分球命中率达到55%。然而，对于德明作为一名射手，人们的乐观情绪较低。他不仅投中了27%的三分球，而且罚球命中率略低于70%。
12. 特雷·约翰逊(Tre Johnson)，得分后卫，德克萨斯大学
前100名： 第6名
统计： 第30名
共识： 2.4 WARP
约翰逊的大量得分是那种在我的预测中往往表现不佳的技能组合。使用率是他唯一的优势，而约翰逊在篮板、抢断和盖帽方面远低于平均水平。关键在于约翰逊作为一名得分手能有多高效。由于40%的三分球命中率，他在大学水平上表现得还可以，但在EYBL比赛中效率较低。约翰逊在2023年EYBL比赛中仅投中了34%的三分球。
13. 迈尔斯·伯德(Miles Byrd)，得分后卫，圣地亚哥州立大学
前100名： 第50名
统计： 第5名
共识： 2.3 WARP
我排名最高的黑马不在前100名的首轮中，伯德的抢断率和盖帽率的罕见组合使他排名靠前。在过去的十年中，只有其他四名选秀球员预计每100回合至少抢断两次，并封盖对手2%的两分球：OG·阿努诺比(OG Anunoby)、塔里·伊森(Tari Eason)、保罗·里德(Paul Reed)、马蒂斯·塞布尔(Matisse Thybulle)和威廉姆森。虽然伯德在大学三分线外的命中率仅为30%，但他83%的罚球准确率表明，他可以提供足够的空间来留在场上进行防守。
14. 杰斯·理查德森(Jase Richardson)，后卫，密歇根州立大学
前100名： 第13名
统计： 第21名
共识： 2.3 WARP
NBA老将后卫贾森·理查德森(Jason Richardson)的大儿子在他的新生赛季表现出色，统计数据表现良好。事实上，根据Stathead.com的box plus-minus指标，在符合条件的一年级球员中，只有弗拉格比他更好。理查德森在我的仅统计指标中表现不太好，部分原因是他的41%的三分球命中率回归到平均水平，而且他在2023年EYBL中的效率略低。理查德森在那里仅投中了33%的三分球。尽管如此，在乐透区末段，理查德森看起来很有价值。
15. 阿萨·纽维尔(Asa Newell)，大前锋，佐治亚大学
前100名： 第21名
统计： 第11名
共识： 2.3 WARP
纽维尔同时打两个前场位置，作为一名大一新生表现出色，场均得到15.4分，两分球命中率为63%，篮板数为6.9个。他在NBA的长期定位仍然是一个问号，因为纽维尔的盖帽预计低于中锋的平均水平，但必须发展投篮能力才能打大前锋。他在大学三分线外的命中率仅为29%（出手次数不多），但罚球相对更准确（75%）。
16. 布吉·弗兰德(Boogie Fland)，控球后卫，阿肯色大学
前100名： 第52名
统计： 第6名
共识： 2.2 WARP
作为阿肯色大学的一名大一新生，弗兰德的效率很挣扎，两分球命中率仅为41%，三分球命中率也不够高（34%）来弥补。他.498的真实命中率是本赛季所有前100名新秀中最差的。弗兰德在2023年EYBL中表现更好，并且拥有很高的抢断率，但我倾向于同意球探的观点，即他糟糕的投篮使他更适合第二轮选秀。
17. 哈曼·马卢阿奇(Khaman Maluach)，中锋，杜克大学
前100名： 第8名
统计： 第37名
共识： 2.2 WARP
马卢阿奇在进攻端效率极高，两分球命中率为75%，罚球命中率也高达77%，对于一名冲击篮筐的大个子来说，使用率（16%）也相对较高，但在防守端的表现并不出色。相对于典型的NBA水准大学中锋，马卢阿奇7%的盖帽率偏低，整个赛季只有8次抢断。尽管如此，这些数字无法体现马卢阿奇作为一名可以换防的大个子的多功能性，这有助于解释他的乐透区地位。
18. 卡特·布莱恩特(Carter Bryant)，前锋，亚利桑那大学
前100名： 第20名
统计： 第18名
共识： 2.2 WARP
作为一名大一新生，布莱恩特主要是一名3D球员，他投出了令人鼓舞的37%的三分球命中率，罕见的59%的两分球命中率，并且以令人印象深刻的速度封盖了外线球员的投篮。在前100名中，只有一名非内线球员（诺兰·特拉奥雷(Nolan Traore)）拥有更出色的盖帽预测。
19. 小沃尔特·克莱顿(Walter Clayton Jr.)，控球后卫，佛罗里达大学
前100名： 第28名
统计： 第13名
共识： 2.1 WARP
克莱顿是NCAA锦标赛的爆发之星，他在前100名中的崛起使他更接近他在仅统计模型中的长期位置。我的模型重视克莱顿在爱奥纳大学的强劲大二赛季，在那里他赢得了MAAC年度最佳球员，并且职业生涯三分球命中率为39%。克莱顿已经22岁了，本应该比他前面那些更年轻的新秀更有效率，但即使考虑到年龄因素，他的表现也超过了很多人。
20. 利亚姆·麦克尼利(Liam McNeeley)，小前锋，康涅狄格大学
前100名： 第15名
统计： 第23名
共识： 2.1 WARP
麦克尼利在康涅狄格大学的得分效率不高，三分球命中率为32%，两分球命中率为44%，但有理由相信随着时间的推移，这种情况可能会有所改善。麦克尼利在2023年EYBL中投出了37%的三分球命中率，并且在康涅狄格大学的罚球命中率为87%。
21. 拉希尔·弗莱明(Rasheer Fleming)，大前锋，圣约瑟夫大学
前100名： 第30名
统计： 第15名
共识： 2.0 WARP
稳固的篮板和盖帽的结合使弗莱明在2024-25赛季爆发成为得分手之前，已经在统计模型中脱颖而出。提高使用率后，弗莱明还投出了职业生涯最高的39%的三分球命中率，展示了他在NBA打大前锋所必需的延伸能力。
22. 卡姆·琼斯(Kam Jones)，后卫，马奎特大学
前100名： 第44名
统计： 第12名
共识： 1.9 WARP
泰勒·科莱克(Tyler Kolek)（尼克斯队在第二轮选中）的离开，使得琼斯在与科莱克一起打无球后，在2024-25赛季转变为有球角色。琼斯的助攻率增加了一倍多，达到场均5.9次，同时增加了他的得分，并且作为一名大四学生，他被一致评为全美最佳阵容。出色的终结能力（职业生涯两分球命中率为59%）和大量的三分球出手（职业生涯每40分钟出手9.0次）表明琼斯可以作为替补席上的组织者而表现出色。
23. 科比·布雷亚(Koby Brea)，得分后卫，肯塔基大学
前100名： 第55名
统计： 第9名
共识： 1.9 WARP
布雷亚是选秀中排名最高的射手，凭借他职业生涯43%的三分线外命中率以及足够的身高（6英尺6英寸）来应对NBA防守者的投篮，他带来了明确的价值主张。正确的球队可能会从布雷亚的移动投篮能力中获得更多收益。根据Synergy Sports的数据，上赛季他在掩护后投篮的有效命中率为59%，但在肯塔基大学的进攻中只有31次投篮机会。
24. 塔哈德·佩蒂福德(Tahaad Pettiford)，控球后卫，奥本大学
前100名： 第38名
统计： 第17名
共识： 1.8 WARP
佩蒂福德在一支拥有五名大四首发球员的奥本大学深度球队中替补出场，作为一名大一新生，他是仅次于NBA潜力新秀约翰尼·布鲁姆(Johni Broome)和查德·贝克-马扎拉(Chad Baker-Mazara)的第三得分手。他必须提高他的终结能力，作为一名身材矮小的控球后卫，他的两分球命中率仅为49%，但接近2的助攻失误比很有希望。
25. 佩顿·桑德福特(Payton Sandfort)，小前锋，爱荷华大学
前100名： 第84名
统计： 第10名
共识： 1.8 WARP
桑德福特作为一名大四学生，进攻端表现下滑，两分球命中率（49%）和三分球命中率（34%）均降至职业生涯最低水平，但他作为一名大三学生效率极高，并且职业生涯罚球命中率为90%。关于桑德福特的问题是，他的成功在多大程度上是弗兰·麦卡菲里(Fran McCaffery)的进攻体系的产物。自2021年以来，爱荷华大学已经培养了四名选秀球员，只有第四顺位选秀基冈·穆雷(Keegan Murray)发展成为一名稳定的轮换球员。
26. 诺兰·特拉奥雷(Nolan Traore)，控球后卫，圣昆汀（法国）
前100名： 第18名
统计： 第36名
共识： 1.7 WARP
在去年的耐克篮球峰会上大放异彩之后，特拉奥雷放弃了大学篮球，在他的祖国法国打职业联赛。作为法国LNB季后赛中的一位耀眼新星，特拉奥雷在年初时位列前100名的第五位，但随着他的表现下滑而下降。从好的方面来看，特拉奥雷的助攻预测是前100名球员中最好的，场均出场仅22.8分钟就能贡献5.2次助攻。然而，他效率不高的得分（两分球命中率为43%，三分球命中率为28%）使他跌出了仅统计模型中的前30名。
27. 塞德里克·考沃德(Cedric Coward)，小前锋，华盛顿州立大学
前100名： 第53名
统计： 第16名
共识： 1.7 WARP
尽管考沃德在从附近的东华盛顿大学转学后，仅为华盛顿州立大学打了六场比赛，而且是在不同的教练的指导下，但NBA年度最佳新秀的竞争者杰伦·威尔斯(Jaylen Wells)来自同一项目，这可能会帮助他的选秀行情。在东部，考沃德是一名高效的得分手，两分球命中率高达72%，三分球命中率为39%。他还被认为是一名高于平均水平的篮板手和小型前锋的组织者。
28. 威尔·莱利(Will Riley)，前锋/后卫，伊利诺伊大学
前100名： 第16名
统计： 第43名
共识： 1.6 WARP
莱利作为一名大一新生，凭借替补出场的高使用率（24%）获得了十大联盟最佳第六人奖，他必须提高他的三分球命中率才能胜任NBA侧翼的角色。他在伊利诺伊大学的命中率为33%，在2023年EYBL中的命中率仅为31%，尽管他在罚球线上的表现相对好一点（大学的命中率为72%）。
29. 托马斯·索伯(Thomas Sorber)，中锋，乔治城大学
前100名： 第24名
统计： 第32名
共识： 1.6 WARP
你相信吗？自2013年奥托·波特(Otto Porter Jr.)以来，乔治城大学就没有球员被选中。如果索伯在场均得到14.5分、8.5个篮板和2.0个盖帽之后继续参加选秀，他肯定会打破这个记录。尽管听起来不错，但NCAA的中锋产出的标准很高，这尤其不利于马里兰大学的同地区新生德里克·奎因(Derik Queen)。与奎因（尽管在前100名中排名第10，但在我的前30名中没有排名）相比，索伯是一名更有效的盖帽手。
30. 亚历克斯·卡拉班(Alex Karaban)，前锋，康涅狄格大学
前100名： 第36名
统计： 第26名
共识： 1.6 WARP
在康涅狄格大学连续两次获得全国冠军的首发阵容中，卡拉班留了下来，而球队的其他五名首发球员都前往了NBA。卡拉班未能像他可能希望的那样在得分方面取得进步，在他的角色略微扩大的情况下，他在两分球（54%）和三分球（35%）方面的准确性均有所下降。卡拉班确实展现了更多的组织能力，他的助攻几乎翻了一番，达到场均2.8次，并且在多诺万·克林根(Donovan Clingan)不在场保护篮筐的情况下，他的盖帽也达到了职业生涯新高。
点击查看原文：NBA draft 2025 - Projecting 30 of the best prospects
NBA draft 2025 - Projecting 30 of the best prospects
The 2025 NBA draft is less than two months away (June 25-26) and now that we know who might be hearing their names called out, it’s time to look at how the top 30 prospects project statistically.
To no surprise, Duke’s Cooper Flagg is the top-ranked prospect by my model, which combines translated statistical performance in the NCAA or non-NBA professional leagues with age and a player’s rank in ESPN’s top 100 prospects to estimate their long-term value.
It’s not just Flagg who excels, however. Three other freshmen, including his teammate Kon Knueppel, rank in the top 10 of the stats-only version of my projections as well as the top 100. When there’s that kind of consensus on the top prospects, players typically translate well to the NBA. For more on how my model works, click here.
With that, let’s get to the top 30 projections among players currently ranked in ESPN’s top 100 after the deadline for early entrants to declare, including a few unexpected names.
NBA draft coverage:\
Kawhi? Pippen? NBA comps for Flagg\
Latest mock draft | Class of 2026 mock\
More draft news
1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Top 100: No. 1\
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.3 WARP
As I wrote in a story with Tim Bontemps about the creative efforts to avoid winning we saw late in the NBA regular season, the question with Flagg is less whether he’s the top prospect this year and more where he stacks up historically. Besides the two No. 1 picks with better projections than Flagg (Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson), Luka Doncic is the only other player to rate better in terms of my consensus model. Flagg is the lone player in this year’s draft who doesn’t rate 15% worse than the average NBA-bound college prospect at his position in any of the categories I use to determine strengths and weaknesses.
2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke
Top 100: No. 9\
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Having Flagg’s teammate just behind him is a more surprising outcome. Based strictly on college performance, Knueppel would drop a few spots, more in line with where he ranks in the top 100 (No. 9).
However, Knueppel had the strongest projection of any prospect who participated in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. He posted a .642 true shooting percentage on 35% usage in 2023, suggesting more shot creation potential than we saw alongside other talented prospects at Duke.
3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Top 100: No. 4\
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Along with Flagg, Edgecombe is the second prospect in this year’s class who ranks in the top five by both my stats-only model and the top 100, typically a powerful combo. Although Edgecombe’s offensive efficiency in his lone season at Baylor was middling (50% shooting on 2s and 34% on 3s), he filled out the box score. Edgecombe projects at least 15% better than the typical NBA-bound college shooting guard in terms of rebound, block and steal rate. That defensive potential should give Edgecombe a high floor, while his development as a shooter will define his upside.
4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 2\
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Harper is on the flip side of the comparison with Knueppel. He had a stronger college freshman season, averaging 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 4.0 APG on fine efficiency given his large role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage rate). Yet Harper wasn’t quite as effective in EYBL play, and incorporating those stats flipped Knueppel ahead. In particular, Harper excelled as a college finisher, shooting 57% on 2-point attempts – best of any perimeter one-and-done prospect.
5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
Top 100: No. 43\
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
This projection looks strange to me, too. Evans averaged 13.8 MPG off the bench for the Blue Devils, yet my model is excited about his potential as a shooter. That’s got relatively little to do with Evans’ 42% 3-point accuracy, since the small sample (149 attempts) means his NBA projection is regressed heavily to the mean. However, the 12 3-point attempts Evans launched per 40 minutes give him the highest shooting projection of any one-and-done player in my database. Given how little Evans contributes beyond shooting, he’ll have to be elite to be an NBA rotation player. Ideally, he’ll return for a larger role as a sophomore and we’ll get more data to use.
6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Top 100: No. 5\
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
Fears was an offensive engine at Oklahoma. His 31.5% usage was highest for any major-conference freshman, per Stathead.com, just ahead of Flagg. Given that load, Fears’ ability to score with average efficiency was impressive. Still, in order to justify a similarly large role in the NBA, Fears will have to improve on 28% 3-point shooting. One encouraging sign: Fears shot 85% on free throws, an important indicator for NBA 3-point accuracy.
7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 3\
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
In a year where the top prospects mostly rated well statistically, Bailey was an exception. In particular, Bailey’s shotmaking ability did not translate to good efficiency because of his difficult shot diet. Per CBBAnalytics.com, 36% of Bailey’s shot attempts were non-paint 2-pointers, ranking in the 99th percentile nationally. And while Bailey hit those at a reasonable 43% clip, that’s far less valuable than the effective 52% he shot on 3s after accounting for the additional point. In the right system, Bailey could emerge as an offensive playmaker, but the wrong team might be unable to maximize his skills.
8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Top 100: No. 14\
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Now that Essengue has moved into lottery territory, it’s hard to call him a sleeper, but he’s still not quite as high as his stats-only projection would suggest as the top international prospect in the draft. In the competitive EuroCup, Essengue has averaged 14.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in just 23.7 MPG, shooting 66% on 2-point attempts. That’s come against much older competition. Essengue won’t turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest prospect in the top 100 after Flagg.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
Top 100: No. 11\
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
The production from Murray-Boyles in Year 2 at South Carolina was too good for scouts to overlook. In the nation’s strongest conference, Murray-Boyles averaged 16.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG with the highest effective field goal percentage (60%) in the SEC. At 6-foot-7, Murray-Boyles is small for a big, but he filled out the box score with seven strengths according to my model – most of any prospect, just ahead of Flagg’s six. (Memphis guard PJ Haggerty, who didn’t crack the top 30, also has six strengths but more weaknesses.)
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Top 100: No. 7\
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
There’s a lot to like about Jakucionis offensively. A tough finisher, he made 56% of his 2s, excellent for a guard. Additionally, Jakucionis’ 84.5% accuracy at the foul line suggests he could improve on his 32% 3-point shooting at Illinois to go with his playmaking. The concern lies on defense. Jakucionis has a below-average steal rate for a guard and blocked just nine shots all season.
11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU
Top 100: No. 12\
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Demin’s combination of court vision and size (6-foot-9) to create passing lanes gives him the third-best assist projection among prospects in the top 100. Like Jakucionis, Demin was also a strong finisher from the backcourt thanks to his size, hitting 55% of his 2-point attempts. However, there’s less reason for optimism about Demin as a shooter. Not only did he make 27% of his 3-point attempts, Demin was a hair under 70% at the foul line.
12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Top 100: No. 6\
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Johnson’s volume scoring is the kind of skill set that tends not to fare well in my projections. Usage is his only strength, while Johnson was well below average in terms of rebounding, steals and blocks. The swing skill is just how efficient Johnson can be as a scorer. He faired acceptably at the college level thanks to 40% 3-point shooting but was less effective in EYBL play. Johnson shot just 34% on 3s in the 2023 EYBL campaign.
13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State
Top 100: No. 50\
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
My top-rated sleeper who’s outside the first round of the top 100, Byrd rates well because of his rare combination of steal and block rates. Over the past decade, just four other draft picks have projected for at least two steals per 100 plays and to block 2% of opponent 2-point attempts: OG Anunoby, Tari Eason, Paul Reed, Matisse Thybulle and Williamson. Although Byrd has shot just 30% from the college 3-point line, his 83% accuracy on free throws suggests he could provide enough spacing to stay on the court for his defense.
14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State
Top 100: No. 13\
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
The oldest son of longtime NBA guard Jason Richardson came on over the course of his freshman season, rating well statistically. In fact, only Flagg was better among qualifying first-year players by Stathead.com’s box plus-minus metric. Richardson doesn’t rate quite as well by my stats-only metric in part because his strong 41% 3-point shooting gets regressed to the mean and he was somewhat less effective in the 2023 EYBL. Richardson shot just 33% on 3s there. Still, at the back end of the lottery, Richardson looks like strong value.
15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia
Top 100: No. 21\
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.3 WARP
Playing both frontcourt spots, Newell was productive as a freshman, averaging 15.4 PPG on 63% 2-point shooting and 6.9 RPG. Where he sticks long-term in the NBA remains a question mark because Newell projects as a below-average shot blocker for a center but must develop the shooting necessary to play power forward. He hit just 29% from the college 3-point line at low volume but was relatively more accurate on free throws (75%).
16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas
Top 100: No. 52\
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
As a freshman at Arkansas, Fland struggled with efficiency, shooting just 41% on 2-point attempts and not well enough on 3s (34%) to compensate. His .498 true shooting percentage was the worst for any top-100 prospect this season. Fland rated better in the 2023 EYBL and boasts a high steal rate, but I’m inclined to agree with the scouts that his poor shooting makes him a more appropriate second-round pick.
17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Top 100: No. 8\
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Extremely efficient on offense, where he shot 75% on 2-point attempts and an impressive 77% from the line with a relatively large usage rate (16%) for a rim-running big, Maluach did not rate as well on defense. Relative to the typical NBA-bound college center, Maluach’s 7% block rate was on the low side and he had just eight steals all season. Still, the number can’t capture Maluach’s versatility as a switchable big, which helps explain his lottery standing.
18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona
Top 100: No. 20\
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.2 WARP
Largely a 3-and-D player as a freshman, Bryant hit a promising 37% of his 3-point attempts, 59% of his rare 2-pointers and blocked shots at an impressive rate for a perimeter player. Only one non-post (Nolan Traore) in the top 100 has a superior block projection.
19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida
Top 100: No. 28\
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
The breakout star of the NCAA tournament, Clayton’s rise in the top 100 moved him closer to where he’d been all along in the stats-only model. My model valued Clayton’s strong sophomore season at Iona, where he won MAAC Player of the Year, and 39% career 3-point shooting. At 22, Clayton should have been more productive than the younger prospects ahead of him, but he outpaced plenty even accounting for age.
20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn
Top 100: No. 15\
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 2.1 WARP
McNeeley was an inefficient scorer at UConn, making 32% of his 3s and 44% of his 2s, but there’s reason to believe that could improve over time. McNeeley hit 37% of his 3s in the 2023 EYBL and was an 87% foul shooter at UConn.
21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph’s
Top 100: No. 30\
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.0 WARP
The combination of solid rebounding and shot blocking already made Fleming a standout in statistical models before his breakout in 2024-25 as a scorer. Upping his usage rate, Fleming also made a career-high 39% of his 3s, demonstrating the stretch ability that will be necessary for him to play power forward in the NBA.
22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette
Top 100: No. 44\
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The departure of Tyler Kolek, drafted in the second round by the Knicks, shifted Jones to an on-ball role in 2024-25 after he’d thrived playing off the ball with Kolek. Jones more than doubled his assist rate to 5.9 per game while increasing his scoring and was a consensus All-America pick as a senior. Strong finishing (59% career on 2s) and high-volume 3-point shooting (9.0 career attempts per 40 minutes) are indicators Jones could excel as a creator off the bench.
23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky
Top 100: No. 55\
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.9 WARP
The top-ranked shooter in the draft, Brea brings a clear value proposition with his 43% career accuracy beyond the arc and enough size (6-foot-6) to get off his shot against NBA defenders. The right team could probably get more out of Brea’s ability to shoot on the move. He shot an effective 59% coming off screens last season, per Synergy Sports, but got just 31 of those shot attempts in Kentucky’s offense.
24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn
Top 100: No. 38\
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Coming off the bench on a deep Auburn team that started five seniors, Pettiford was the third-leading scorer behind NBA prospects Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara as a freshman. He must improve his finishing, having shot just 49% on 2s as an undersized point guard prospect, but an assist-to-turnover ratio near 2 was promising.
25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa
Top 100: No. 84\
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.8 WARP
Sandfort slumped offensively as a senior, hitting both 2s (49%) and 3s (34%) at career-low rates, but he was exceptionally efficient as a junior and a career 90% foul shooter. The question with Sandfort is how much of his success was a product of Fran McCaffery’s offensive system. Iowa has produced four draft picks since 2021 and only No. 4 pick Keegan Murray has developed into a consistent rotation player.
26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)
Top 100: No. 18\
Stats: No. 36
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
After starring in last year’s Nike Hoop Summit, Traore passed on college hoops to play professionally in his native France. An instant standout in the French LNB playoffs, Traore entered the year fifth in the top 100 but declined with his play. On the plus side, Traore has the best assist projection for any top 100 player after averaging 5.2 per game in just 22.8 minutes. However, his inefficient scoring (43% on 2s and 28% on 3s) dropped him out of the top 30 in the stats-only model.
27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State
Top 100: No. 53\
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.7 WARP
Although Coward played just six games for Washington State after transferring from nearby Eastern Washington, and under a different coach, the success of NBA Rookie of the Year contender Jaylen Wells coming from the same program could help his stock. At Eastern, Coward was a high-efficiency scorer, shooting a remarkable 72% on 2s and 39% on 3s. He also projects as an above-average rebounder and distributor for a small forward.
28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois
Top 100: No. 16\
Stats: No. 43
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
The Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year for his high-usage play (24%) coming off the bench as a freshman, Riley will have to improve his 3-point shooting to stick in an NBA wing role. He hit 33% at Illinois and just 31% in the 2023 EYBL, though he’s been relatively a bit better at the foul line (72% in college).
29. Thomas Sorber, C Georgetown
Top 100: No. 24\
Stats: No. 32
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
Would you believe that no Georgetown product has been drafted since Otto Porter Jr. in 2013? Sorber will assuredly break that streak if he stays in the draft after averaging 14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 2.0 BPG as a freshman. As good as that sounds, the bar for center production at the NCAA level is high, which particularly works against fellow DMV freshman Derik Queen of Maryland. By contrast to Queen, who doesn’t rate in my top 30 despite being 10th in the top 100, Sorber was a much more effective shot blocker.
30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn
Top 100: No. 36\
Stats: No. 26
Consensus: 1.6 WARP
After starting on UConn’s back-to-back national champions, Karaban stuck around while the rest of the team’s starting five headed to the NBA. Karaban wasn’t able to take the step forward as a scorer he might have hoped, seeing his accuracy on both 2s (54%) and 3s (35%) decline in a slightly larger role. Karaban did show more playmaking chops, nearly doubling his assists to 2.8 per game, and also blocked shots at a career-high rate without Donovan Clingan around to protect the rim.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN