By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-04-19 02:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
季后赛终于来了，是时候展望首轮对决了。
NBA的圣诞节到了！季后赛终于来临，球迷们也开始自欺欺人地认为他们的球队会以16胜0负的战绩夺冠。
谢天谢地，今年的季后赛似乎注定会从头到尾都令人兴奋。东部不如西部那样强大，但仍然有一些有趣的系列赛可能会引发/加剧一些宿敌之争。
因此，闲话少说，现在是时候预览首轮对决，并选出东部的最终赢家了。
注意：所有统计数据均来自全明星赛后
#1 克利夫兰 vs #8 亚特兰大/迈阿密
无论克利夫兰面对谁，这个系列赛都将是一场血战。
从纸面上看，亚特兰大更适合与骑士队交手——也就是说，他们或许能赢一场，而迈阿密可能一场都赢不了。老鹰队30.1%的进攻篮板率（联盟第7）是唯一可能给克利夫兰带来一些麻烦的方面，因为这支头号种子的唯一真正弱点是他们平庸的防守篮板率（70%，第27位）。亚特兰大还拥有联盟第二高的转换进攻频率，达到17.7%，而骑士队在限制这些机会方面表现平平——对手有15.1%的时间会对骑士队进行转换进攻，排名联盟第16位。
那么迈阿密呢？嗯……我想他们可以用他们的文化来震慑克利夫兰？开个玩笑，热火队可以通过限制骑士队轻松得分来保持系列赛的竞争力。迈阿密在限制犯规方面排名联盟第二，让对手的罚球率仅为每100回合15.2次。他们74.3%的防守篮板率也排名联盟第五，因此克利夫兰需要努力创造二次进攻机会。
说了这么多，这个系列赛最多只会以绅士横扫结束。
预测：骑士队5场胜老鹰队，骑士队4场胜热火队
#2 波士顿 vs #7 奥兰多
关键问题：奥兰多能在多大程度上限制波士顿的三分球？
就像1号种子对阵8号种子的对决一样，较低的种子队在这个系列赛中毫无机会——除了第一场比赛，奥兰多总是像1996年的公牛队一样打球。
魔术队不会赢，但他们仍然可以获得一些宝贵的经验和见解，了解他们的球队未来需要什么。然而，他们让波士顿日子不好过的一种方法是限制凯尔特人队的三分球出手量。
奥兰多只允许对手36.2%的投篮来自三分线外，这一数据在联盟中排名第四。当然，波士顿以投出比失利后的德安吉洛·拉塞尔（D’Angelo Russell）更多的三分球而闻名，他们在三分球出手量方面常年领先联盟，超过50%。
迫使凯尔特人队远离三分线会导致他们在奥兰多篮筐周围尝试更多的投篮，但魔术队也是一支顶级的禁区保护球队——他们允许对手在篮筐四英尺内的投篮命中率仅为63.1%，联盟第五。然而，凯尔特人队在那个区域的终结能力也很强，他们的命中率高达72.3%，联盟第三。对于奥兰多来说，这是一个进退两难的境地，但考虑到波士顿在不投/投进三分球时容易陷入困境，迫使他们更多地运球突破肯定是两害相权取其轻。
说了这么多，我会很慷慨地给魔术队一场胜利。
预测：凯尔特人队5场胜
#3 纽约 vs #6 底特律
关键问题：底特律的第二进攻点来自哪里？
如果活塞队希望有机会，那么凯德·康宁汉姆(Cade Cunningham)需要成为这个系列赛中最好的球员。考虑到他已经打出了全NBA级别的赛季表现，而且贾伦·布伦森(Jalen Brunson)刚从伤病中复出，这并不是一个离谱的说法，但即使凯德表现出色，底特律仍然需要找到足够的得分点来跟上纽约。
特别是贾伦·杜伦(Jalen Duren)，他需要打出一个出色的系列赛。尼克斯队的防守限制始于卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl-Anthony Towns)，他是常规赛中联盟最差的篮筐保护者之一。纽约允许对手在篮筐周围的投篮命中率为68.3%，并且对手有33.3%的投篮都来自那个区域，这两个数据都排在联盟第24位。这对杜伦来说是个好兆头，他在篮筐附近的73%的终结率在所有内线球员中排在第73个百分位。
底特律的另一个优势是造犯规——自从全明星赛后，他们每100次投篮尝试可以获得21.7次罚球，在联盟中排名第5。尼克斯队在限制自身犯规方面做得非常出色，在同一时间段内，对手只有17.5次罚球。然而，唐斯有着在最不合时宜的时候犯规的不稳定记录，因此活塞队聪明地做法是将他置于尽可能多的战术中，包括让他换防到挡拆中的凯德。
如果一切顺利，活塞队可能会让这个系列赛变得漫长，甚至可能完成一次冷门。尽管如此，当纽约拥有五名最佳球员中的四名，并且更有经验时，很难不支持他们。
预测：尼克斯队6场胜
#4 印第安纳 vs #5 密尔沃基
关键问题：密尔沃基能否限制失误并在篮筐附近高效得分？
即使毫无疑问地拥有这个系列赛中最好的球员，雄鹿队在印第安纳面前仍然是不被看好的。如果他们想有争胜的机会，密尔沃基需要做两件事：限制失误并在篮筐附近打出精英级别的效率。
自从全明星赛后，雄鹿队只有13%的回合出现失误，在联盟中排名第五。然而，步行者队也是一支在迫使对手失误方面最好的球队之一，他们在对手14.8%的回合中制造了失误，在同一时间段内排名第9。更重要的是，印第安纳在转换进攻方面也很出色，进攻效率为132.1（联盟第9）。简而言之，如果密尔沃基想要留在本系列赛中，他们需要在限制失误方面做得同样好，甚至更好。
在进攻端，扬尼斯·阿德托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)需要以某种方式比平时更多地统治油漆区。雄鹿队在篮筐四英尺内的投篮命中率为72.8%（第2），但步行者队在防守篮筐方面也很出色——他们只允许对手在那里投出62.7%的命中率，排名联盟第3。
话虽如此，我相信扬尼斯将能够对埃文·特纳(Evan Turner)和印第安纳的防守施加他的意志，因为他是一位历史级别的油漆区得分手。印第安纳允许对手34.2%的投篮来自篮筐周围（第26位）也有利于密尔沃基，但雄鹿队需要增加他们自己的篮筐尝试（30.2%，第19位）才能充分利用这一优势。
即便如此，密尔沃基在天赋方面处于如此劣势，以至于扬尼斯的超凡伟大也无法让他们战胜步行者。达米安·利拉德(Damian Lillard)可能会复出会让这个系列赛更加激烈，但很难看到雄鹿队现在能够走得更远。
预测：步行者队6场胜
东部决赛预测
波士顿胜克利夫兰
哦，多么令人震惊！全年表现最好的三支球队中的两支将在东部决赛中相遇，我仍然坚持波士顿。假设他们是健康的，凯尔特人队拥有更多的经验和更高的防守下限，同时仍然拥有足够的火力来跟上骑士队。也许我仍然对克利夫兰持怀疑态度，但如果他们能够击败实力强大的波士顿队，我会感到有些惊讶。
NBA总决赛预测
波士顿胜俄克拉荷马城，杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)赢得总决赛MVP
这是我的季前赛选择，我坚持这个预测。两支超级强队之间的胜负完全是五五开，但我认为波士顿的上限更高，因为他们的底蕴和一个真正的X因素：克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯(Kristaps Porzingis)。如果他保持健康，这支凯尔特人队就没有弱点，而且我仍然不相信俄克拉荷马雷霆队的替补球员能够获得足够的得分来跟上波士顿，即使考虑到谢伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)的超凡伟大。这个选择完全取决于凯尔特人队保持健康，但考虑到杰伦·布朗(Jaylen Brown)的膝盖仍然有问题，这可能已经是一项徒劳的任务。不过，雷霆队的内线球员在健康方面也没有最好的记录，而且波士顿在很多方面都是俄克拉荷马城队更加成熟和身经百战的版本。
无论发生什么，这都应该是多年来最史诗般的总决赛，我们可以回顾它，将其视为近年来两支最佳球队之间火炬的传递。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: 2025 NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs preview and finals pick
Around the NBA: 2025 NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs preview and finals pick
The playoffs are finally here, so it’s time to preview the first-round matchups.
It’s Christmas time in the NBA! The playoffs are finally here, and fans are starting to delude themselves into thinking their team will go 16-0.
Thankfully, this year’s postseason seems poised to be exciting from start to finish. The East isn’t as loaded as the West, but it still has a few intriguing series that could start/heighten some rivalries.
So, without further ado, it’s time to preview the first-round matchups and pick the winner from the East.
Note: all stats used are from after the All-Star break
#1 Cleveland vs #8 Atlanta/Miami
This series will be a bloodbath regardless of who Cleveland plays.
On paper, Atlanta matches up better with the Cavs — that is to say, they might win one game to Miami’s zero. The Hawks’ 30.1% offensive rebound rate (7th league-wide) is the one area that could give Cleveland some trouble, as the only real weakness of the one-seed is their lackluster defensive rebounding rate (70%, 27th). Atlanta also has the second-highest transition frequency at 17.7%, and the Cavs are mediocre at limiting those opportunities — opposing teams run out on Cleveland 15.1% of the time, ranking 16th in the league.
What about Miami? Umm… they could intimidate Cleveland with their culture, I guess? Jokes aside, the Heat can stay competitive in the series by limiting the Cavs from getting easy buckets. Miami is second in the league in limiting fouls, giving opponents a free-throw rate of just 15.2 per 100 possessions. Their 74.3% defensive rebounding rate is also fifth league-wide, so Cleveland will need to work to create second-chance opportunities.
And after saying all that, this series will end in an easy gentlemen’s sweep at most.
Prediction: Cavs in 5 vs Atlanta, Cavs in 4 vs Miami
#2 Boston vs #7 Orlando
Key question: how much can Orlando limit Boston’s threes?
Just like the 1v8 matchup, the lower seed has no chance in this series — outside of game 1, where Orlando always plays like the 96’ Bulls.
The Magic aren’t going to win, but they can still gain some valuable experience and insight as to what their team needs moving forward. One way they can make life difficult for Boston, though, is by limiting the Celtics’ volume of threes.
Orlando has allowed only 36.2% of opponent shots to come from deep, which is good for fourth league-wide. Of course, Boston is known for getting up more threes than DLo after a loss, as they’ve led the league all year in three-point volume at over 50%.
Forcing the Celtics off the line would result in them attempting more shots around Orlando’s basket, but the Magic are also an elite rim-protecting team — they’re fifth in the league by allowing just 63.1% shooting within four feet of the basket. However, the Celtics are also elite at finishing in that area by scoring on 72.3% of their attempts, good for third league-wide. It’s a pick-your-poison situation for Orlando, but given Boston’s propensity to struggle when they’re not taking/making threes, forcing them to drive more is certainly the lesser of two evils.
And after saying all that, I’ll be generous and give the Magic one game.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
#3 New York vs #6 Detroit
Key question: where will Detroit’s secondary offense come from?
Cade Cunningham will need to be the best player in this series if the Pistons hope to have a chance. That’s not an outlandish statement given his All-NBA caliber season and Jalen Brunson just returning from injury, but even if Cade’s spectacular, Detroit still needs to find enough scoring to keep up with New York.
Jalen Duren, in particular, needs to have a big series. The Knicks’ defensive limitations start with KAT, who was one of the league’s worst rim protectors in the regular season. New York has allowed 68.3% opponent shooting around the rim and 33.3% of opponent shots have come in that area, too – both marks ranking 24th league-wide. That bodes well for Duren, whose 73% finishing at the basket ranks in the 73rd percentile among all bigs.
Another strength of Detroit’s is foul drawing – they’ve made 21.7 free throws per 100 shot attempts since the All-Star break, good for 5th in the league. The Knicks have done an admirable job of limiting fouls of their own, as opposing teams only have a 17.5 free throw over that same span. However, KAT has a spotty track record of committing fouls at the most inopportune times, so the Pistons would be smart to put him in as many actions as possible, including having him switched onto Cade in the pick-and-roll.
If everything breaks right, the Pistons could make this a long series and even pull off an upset. Still, it’s hard to bet against New York when they have four of the five best players and are more seasoned.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
#4 Indiana vs #5 Milwaukee
Key question: can Milwaukee limit turnovers and score efficiently at the rim?
Even with unquestionably the best player in the series, the Bucks are heavy underdogs against Indiana. If they want a fighter’s chance at advancing, Milwaukee needs to do two things: limit turnovers and score at an elite level around the basket.
Since the All-Star break, the Bucks have turned over the ball on just 13% of their possessions, good for fifth league-wide. However, the Pacers are also one of the best teams at forcing turnovers, which they’ve done on 14.8% of opponent possessions, ranking 9th during that same span. More importantly, Indiana has also been elite in transition, sporting a 132.1 offensive rating (9th league-wide). Simply put, Milwaukee needs to do as good of a job, if not a better one, at limiting their turnovers if they want to stay in this series.
On offense, Giannis will need to somehow dominate the paint even more than usual. The Bucks shot 72.8% within four feet of the basket (2nd), but the Pacers have also been elite at defending the rim, too — they’re allowing just 62.7% shooting there, good for 3rd league-wide.
With that said, I have faith that Giannis will be able to impose his will against Evan Turner and Indiana’s defense given that he’s an all-time paint scorer. That Indiana has allowed 34.2% of opponent shots to come around the basket (26th) also plays in Milwaukee’s favor, but the Bucks will need to increase their own rim attempts (30.2%, 19th) in order to take full advantage.
Even so, Milwaukee’s at such a talent disadvantage that Giannis’ transcendent greatness won’t be able to carry them over the Pacers. Dame making a potential comeback would make this series more tightly contested, but it’s hard to see the Bucks going the distance right now.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
Eastern Conference Finals prediction
Boston over Cleveland
Oh, what a shocker! Two of the three best teams all year will meet in the ECF, and I’m sticking with Boston. Assuming they’re healthy, the Celtics have more experience and a higher defensive floor, while still having enough firepower to keep up with the Cavs. Perhaps I’m still too skeptical of Cleveland, but I’d be mildly surprised if they managed to get through a loaded Boston squad.
NBA Finals prediction
Boston over Oklahoma City, Tatum wins Finals MVP
This was my pre-season pick and I’m sticking to it. It’s truly a coin toss between two juggernauts, but I think Boston’s ceiling is just a tad higher because of their pedigree and the one true x-factor: Kristaps Porzingis. If he remains healthy, this Celtics team has no weaknesses and I’m still not convinced that OKC’s supporting cast can score enough to keep up with Boston, even accounting for Shai’s transcendent greatness. This pick is entirely dependent on the Celtics staying healthy, though, which might already be a fool’s errand given that Jaylen Brown’s knee is still wonky. Still, the Thunder’s bigs don’t have the best track record when it comes to health, either, and Boston is a more seasoned and battle-tested version of OKC in many ways.
Regardless of what happens, this should be the most epic finals in years, and we could look back on it as a passing of the torch between two of the best teams in recent memory.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock