By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-04-19 00:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
季后赛终于来了，是时候预览首轮对决了。
NBA的圣诞节到了！季后赛终于来了，球迷们开始自欺欺人地认为他们的球队会以16胜0负的战绩夺冠。
值得庆幸的是，今年的季后赛似乎注定会从头到尾都充满激情。西部有三组对决胜负难料，而第四组……好吧，对于俄克拉荷马城来说，这只是一次热身。
因此，事不宜迟，现在是时候预览首轮对决并选出西部的冠军了。你也可以在这里找到东部的前瞻。
注意：所有数据均来自全明星赛后
#1 俄克拉荷马城 vs #8 达拉斯/孟菲斯
达拉斯/孟菲斯，欢迎来到俄克拉荷马城邀请赛！在这里，你将会体验到与一支真正运作良好且朝着同一个方向努力的球队比赛是什么感觉。
即使这两个潜在的八号种子都没有机会赢得这个系列赛，但两支球队都可以做一些事情来让雷霆的日子更加艰难。对于独行侠来说，计划很简单：利用体型优势在篮板上压制俄克拉荷马城。即使在引进了以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因(Isaiah Hartenstein)之后，雷霆仍然有时容易在攻防两端丢掉篮板。这非常符合尼科·哈里森(Nico Harrison)精心构建的防守体系，因为当安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)与丹尼尔·加福德(Daniel Gafford)同时在场时，达拉斯的进攻篮板率高达31.4%——这将排在联盟第四。
另一方面，孟菲斯需要尽可能多地积累轻松得分的机会，抓住每一次机会跑起来。灰熊16.6%的转换进攻频率排在联盟第八，这提升了他们容易陷入半场阵地战的进攻。不幸的是，俄克拉荷马城在限制转换进攻方面排名联盟第二——只有12.5%的对手进攻发生在转换进攻中。因此，如果孟菲斯希望在这个系列赛中赢得一场比赛，他们就需要创造更多的失误并打出一种奔放的跑轰风格。
预测：SGA、GTA、PSA，雷霆5场晋级。
#2 休斯顿 vs #7 金州
关键问题：勇士将如何应对休斯顿的体型优势？
这是一个亘古不变的故事：疲惫的老大师抵御着在他脚踝边啃噬的饥饿的年轻人。饱经沧桑的老将将再次获胜，还是会被年轻的学徒所超越？
对于火箭来说，胜利的关键可能来自于他们自己的“老将”史蒂文·亚当斯(Steven Adams)——不知何故，他仍然只有31岁。“大猕猴桃”在比赛后期获得了更多的上场时间，帮助休斯顿在篮板上彻底击溃了对手：当他和阿尔佩伦·申京(Alperen Sengun)同时在场时，火箭的进攻篮板率高达惊人的50.3%(!!!)。我不是数学家，但是在一半的投篮中获得二次进攻机会似乎还不错。
这些休斯顿的阵容也以每百回合+30分的优势击败了对手，尽管他们在攻防两端都拥有不可持续的投篮运气。这些数据也仅仅是334个回合的产物，因此启用亚当斯更多的是一种最后的手段，而不是他们的首选。即便如此，火箭在没有亚当斯的情况下仍然拥有32.9%的进攻篮板率——这仍然可以排在联盟第三——这对金州勇士队来说是一个独特的挑战，勇士的最佳阵容是让德雷蒙德·格林(Draymond Green)打中锋，而勇士的防守篮板率72%仅仅是中等水平（联盟第14）。
打大个阵容对抗小个阵容本质上是两支球队创造更多进攻的方式。火箭队使用庞然大物来为自己创造尽可能多的得分机会，因为他们的半场进攻很糟糕，而勇士队则缩小阵容以追求速度和技巧。考虑到这一点，这个系列赛的结果可能取决于休斯顿是否能够创造足够的二次进攻机会，以跟上金州勇士队的外线球星冲击他们内线的步伐。
唉，勇士队拥有对决中最好的两名球员应该会让火箭队难以克服。大师可能会通过经验再次获胜，但这肯定将是他的最后一舞。
预测：勇士6场晋级
#3 洛杉矶湖人 vs #6 明尼苏达
关键问题：森林狼将如何应对打小球的局面？
让我们明确一件事：鲁迪·戈贝尔(Rudy Gobert)是有史以来最好的防守球员之一，这不是一个错误地指责鲁迪的空间。
然而，湖人在攻防两端都有着独特的优势来攻击他的弱点。这并不意味着戈贝尔会被整个系列赛按在板凳上，但他上场时间会比平时少。由于洛杉矶有三名外线球员可以轮流在外线单打他，从而抵消戈贝尔最好的防守特质——篮筐保护，因此这位“窒息之塔”可能会在一些关键时刻坐冷板凳。更重要的是，戈贝尔薄弱的进攻意味着湖人可以用更小的球员防守他，这样他们就可以继续派出他们最佳的阵容。
在常规赛中，当戈贝尔不在场时，明尼苏达的进攻效率从115.3（第56百分位）提高到119.2（第82百分位），但他们的防守也从108.6（第91百分位）下降到116.3（第39百分位）。鉴于我们所讨论的，戈贝尔面对湖人时，森林狼的防守不会像以前那样精英，但仍然会经历下滑。克里斯·芬奇(Chris Finch)和他的教练组需要决定的是，这种防守上的权衡是否值得他们在进攻上所能增加的东西。
当戈贝尔不在场时，明尼苏达有44.9%的投篮来自三分线外（第93百分位），而且自从全明星赛后，森林狼和湖人都排在三分球出手次数和命中率的前十名。换句话说，这场对决可能会迅速演变成一场三分球大战，尤其是如果纳兹·里德(Naz Reid)和朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)的出场时间超过戈贝尔。
然而，考虑到远距离投篮的波动性，这个系列赛可能取决于哪支球队在篮下得分更多。令人惊讶的是，两支球队在各自篮筐周围的投篮命中率都高于平均水平（包括没有戈贝尔的明尼苏达），但没有戈贝尔的森林狼的篮下出手次数（34.7%）比拥有卢卡(Luka)的湖人（30.5%）要多得多。
再加上洛杉矶可能拥有这个系列赛中最好的两名球员，很难不选择湖人。
预测：湖人6场晋级
#4 丹佛 vs #5 洛杉矶快船
关键问题：洛杉矶快船会改变他们的比赛风格来利用丹佛的弱点吗？
快船队有一个独特的机会来攻击掘金的防守弱点，比如在挡拆方面。本赛季，当尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)在挡拆中受到攻击时，对手每回合得到1.38分——在轮换内线中，这是联盟最差的10个数据之一。
然而，与过去的詹姆斯·哈登(James Harden)球队不同，快船队已经放弃了大量挡拆进攻。他们挡拆频率仅为14.6%，在联盟中排名第24位，而哈登自己每场比赛也只跑6.4次（联盟第20位）。即便如此，“胡子登”仍然是一位精英组织者，这在伊维察·祖巴茨(Ivica Zubac)作为挡拆顺下者的统计数据中显而易见：祖巴茨作为挡拆终结者的每回合得分为1.25分，排名第79百分位，仅比约基奇低0.04分。
此外，祖巴茨是禁区内的精英得分手。他平均每场比赛的低位单打次数第二多（是的，仅次于约基奇），同时每回合得到1.06分——排名第66百分位——再次略低于约基奇（1.09分）。这帮助快船队自全明星赛后在篮筐周围的投篮命中率达到68.5%（第四），但只有27.7%的投篮来自该区域（第25）。考虑到篮筐保护是约基奇的防守弱点之一，洛杉矶快船应该优先考虑在篮筐周围的投篮以发挥优势。
鉴于“大祖”也是联盟中为数不多的有足够力量一对一充分防守约基奇的球员之一，毫无疑问，他是这个系列赛中的X因素。只要他不陷入犯规麻烦，快船队就应该占据上风。
预测：快船7场晋级
西部决赛预测
俄克拉荷马城战胜洛杉矶湖人
俄克拉荷马城几乎肯定会进入西部决赛，但今年西部最棒的地方在于，其他每支球队都可以说服自己也能做到这一点。我最终选择了湖人，因为卢卡可以是任何系列赛中最好的球员，而且我喜欢他们与站在他们和西部决赛席位之间的球队的对位。我没有信心一定能选对洛杉矶，但就目前而言，在我看来，他们有最好的机会。
NBA总决赛预测
波士顿战胜俄克拉荷马城，杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)赢得总决赛MVP
这是我季前赛的选择，我坚持这个观点。两支超级强队之间的胜负确实难料，但我认为波士顿的上限略高，因为他们的底蕴和真正的X因素：克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯(Kristaps Porzingis)。如果他保持健康，这支凯尔特人队就没有弱点，而且我仍然不相信即使考虑到沙伊·吉尔杰斯-亚历山大(Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)超凡的伟大，俄克拉荷马城的替补阵容也能得到足够的分数来跟上波士顿的节奏。这个选择完全取决于凯尔特人队保持健康，但考虑到杰伦·布朗(Jaylen Brown)的膝盖仍然不稳定，这可能已经是一场徒劳的尝试。尽管如此，雷霆队的大个子在健康方面的记录也不太好，而且波士顿在许多方面都是俄克拉荷马城更成熟和身经百战的版本。
无论发生什么，这都应该是近年来最史诗般的总决赛，我们可以将其视为近年来两支最佳球队之间火炬的传递。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: 2025 NBA Western Conference first-round playoffs preview and finals pick
Around the NBA: 2025 NBA Western Conference first-round playoffs preview and finals pick
The playoffs are finally here, so it’s time to preview the first-round matchups.
It’s Christmas time in the NBA! The playoffs are finally here, and fans are starting to delude themselves into thinking their team will go 16-0.
Thankfully, this year’s postseason seems poised to be exciting from start to finish. The West has three series that are legitimate coin tosses, while the fourth is… well, a warm-up lap for OKC.
So, without further ado, it’s time to preview the first-round matchups and pick the winner from the West. You can also find the preview for the East here.
Note: all stats used are from after the All-Star break
#1 Oklahoma City vs #8 Dallas/Memphis
Dallas/Memphis, welcome to the OKC Invitation! Here, you’ll learn what it’s like to play a team that is actually functional and pulling in the same direction.
Even though neither potential eight-seed has a chance in this series, there are certain things that both teams can do to make life hard-ER on the Thunder. For the Mavs, the plan is simple: use size to kill OKC on the boards. Even with the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder can still be susceptible at times to giving up rebounds on either end of the court. That plays well into the hands of Nico Harrison’s perfectly constructed defensive team, as Dallas sports a 31.4% offensive rebounding rate — which would rank fourth league-wide — when Anthony Davis shares the court with Daniel Gafford.
On the other hand, Memphis needs to pile up as many easy buckets as possible, by running at every chance. The Grizzlies’ 16.6% transition frequency ranks 8th in the league, boosting an offense that’s susceptible to getting bogged down in the half-court. Unfortunately, OKC is second league-wide in limiting transition chances — only 12.5% of opponent possessions occur in such plays. Thus, Memphis will need to create more turnovers and play a run-and-gun style if they hope to even win a single game in this series.
Prediction: SGA, GTA, PSA, Thunder in 5.
#2 Houston vs #7 Golden State
Key question: How will the Warriors deal with Houston’s size?
It’s a tale as old as time: the weary old master fending off the hungry young buck who’s nipping at his ankles. Will the grizzled veteran win once more, or be overcome by the youthful apprentice?
For the Rockets, the key to victory could come from their own “veteran,” Steven Adams — who’s somehow still only 31. The Big Kiwi got more playing time down the stretch, helping Houston absolutely bludgeon opposing teams on the glass: when he and Alperen Sengun shared the court, the Rockets have a ludicrous 50.3%(!!!) offensive rebound rate. I’m not a mathematician, but getting second-chance opportunities on half your shots seems decent.
Those Houston lineups have also outscored opponents by +30 per 100 possessions, although they’ve had unsustainable shooting luck on both sides of the ball. These stats are the product of just 334 possessions too, so employing Adams is more of a last-ditch resort rather than their go-to option. Even so, the Rockets still have a 32.9% offensive rebounding rate without Adams — which would still rank 3rd league-wide — posing a unique foil to a Golden State team whose best lineup is having Draymond play center, and the Warriors’ defensive rebounding rate of 72% is just mediocre (14th league-wide).
Going big vs small is essentially both teams’ way of creating more offense. The Rockets employ behemoths to give themselves as many scoring opportunities as possible due to their poor half-court attack, while the Warriors downsize in favor of speed and skill. With that in mind, this series could come down to whether Houston can generate enough second-chance opportunities to keep up with Golden State’s perimeter stars hunting their bigs.
Alas, the Warriors having the two best players in this matchup should be too much for the Rockets to overcome. The master might win again through experience, but it surely will be his last dance.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
#3 Los Angeles Lakers vs #6 Minnesota
Key question: how will the Wolves respond to playing small?
Let’s make one thing clear: Rudy Gobert is an all-time-level defensive player and this is not a fallacious blame Rudy space.
However, the Lakers are uniquely built to attack his weaknesses at both ends of the court. That doesn’t mean Gobert will be benched for the series, but he will play less than usual. The Stifle Tower could sit during some crunch time minutes due to LAL having three perimeter players who can take turns isolating against him on the perimeter, nullifying Gobert’s best defensive trait — rim protection. More importantly, Gobert’s weak offensive game means that the Lakers can guard him with smaller players so that they can continue trotting out their most optimal lineup.
In the regular season, Minnesota’s offensive rating improved from 115.3 (56th percentile) to 119.2 (82nd) when Gobert sat, but their defense also dropped from 108.6 (91st) to 116.3 (39th). Given what we discussed, the Wolves’ defense won’t be as elite with Gobert against the Lakers, but it’ll still experience a decline. What Chris Finch and his coaching staff need to decide is whether the defensive trade-off is worth what they can add offensively.
When Gobert sits, Minnesota attempts 44.9% of their shots from deep (93rd percentile), and both the Wolves and Lakers are ranked top-10 in three-point volume and percentage since the All-Star break. In other words, this matchup could quickly devolve into a three-point battle, especially if Naz Reid and Julius Randle are played in favor of Gobert.
Given the volatility of long-range shooting, though, this series could be decided by which team scores more at the rim. Both squads are surprisingly above-average in field goal percentage allowed around their own basket (including Minnesota without Gobert), but the Wolves concede lots more attempts sans Gobert (34.7%) than the Lakers have with Luka (30.5%).
Combine that with LAL potentially having the two best players in the series, and it’s hard not to pick the Lakers.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
#4 Denver vs #5 Los Angeles Clippers
Key question: will LA change their playstyle to exploit Denver’s weaknesses?
The Clippers have a unique opportunity to attack the Nuggets’ defensive weaknesses, such as in the pick and roll. This season, opposing teams have scored 1.38 points per possession when Jokic has been attacked in the P&R — one of the 10 worst marks in the league amongst rotation bigs.
However, unlike James Harden teams of the past, the Clippers have gone away from running a heavy P&R offense. They rank 24th league-wide in P&R frequency at just 14.6%, and Harden himself is only running 6.4 per game (20th league-wide). Even so, the Beard remains an elite playmaker, which is evident in Ivica Zubac’s stats as a roll man: Zubac’s 1.25 points per possession as the finisher in the P&R ranks in the 79th percentile, and is only 0.04 points lower than Jokic’s.
Moreover, Zubac is an elite scorer in the paint. He averages the second most post-ups per game (yes, behind Jokic) while scoring 1.06ppp — ranking in the 66th percentile — which is, once again, just below Jokic (1.09ppp). This has helped the Clippers make 68.5% of their attempts around the rim since the All-Star break (4th), but only 27.7% of their shots come in that area (25th). Considering rim protection is one of Jokic’s defensive weaknesses, LAC stands to prioritize shots around the basket to take advantage.
Given that Big Zu is also one of the only players in the league who has the strength to adequately defend Jokic one-on-one, he’s undoubtedly the X-factor in this series. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, the Clippers should have the upper hand.
Prediction: Clippers in 7
Western Conference Finals prediction
Oklahoma City over Los Angeles Lakers
OKC is virtually a lock to make it to the Conference Finals, but the great thing about this year’s West is that every other team can convince themselves of the same, too. I ultimately went with the Lakers because Luka can be the best player in any series, and I like how they match up with the teams that stand between them and a Conference Finals berth. I’m not confident in picking LA by any means, but as it currently stands, they have the best chance in my books.
NBA Finals prediction
Boston over Oklahoma City, Tatum wins Finals MVP
This was my pre-season pick and I’m sticking to it. It’s truly a coin toss between two juggernauts, but I think Boston’s ceiling is just a tad higher because of their pedigree and the one true x-factor: Kristaps Porzingis. If he remains healthy, this Celtics team has no weaknesses and I’m still not convinced that OKC’s supporting cast can score enough to keep up with Boston, even accounting for Shai’s transcendent greatness. This pick is entirely dependent on the Celtics staying healthy, though, which might already be a fool’s errand given that Jaylen Brown’s knee is still wonky. Still, the Thunder’s bigs don’t have the best track record when it comes to health, either, and Boston is a more seasoned and battle-tested version of OKC in many ways.
Regardless of what happens, this should be the most epic finals in years, and we could look back on it as a passing of the torch between two of the best teams in recent memory.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock