By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-03-31 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
西部多个席位悬而未决，而东部似乎已成定局，我们应该为骑士队担心到什么程度？
骑士队在赛季的大部分时间里都保持着联盟最佳战绩，直到最近。
在打出他们今年 第二次 15+ 连胜之后，克利夫兰最近9场比赛输掉了5场，包括一波四连败。季后赛开始前几周陷入挣扎绝不是一个好兆头，但同时，这可能只是漫长赛季中的低迷期——2022年的勇士队和2023年的掘金队也经历过类似的阶段，然后一路高歌猛进最终夺冠。
那么，这究竟是事出有因，还是无关紧要？像往常一样，答案介于两者之间。
克利夫兰近期的下滑有多令人担忧？
对于骑士队近期挣扎的最简单解释是，他们的投篮好运终于耗尽了。自从3月16日连胜被终结以来，对手的三分球命中率高达 39.7%，在这段时间内排名联盟第九。更令人担忧的是，他们自己的命中率直线下降，克利夫兰的三分球命中率仅为 33.5%，排名第26位。考虑到他们在之前的三分球命中率高达惊人的 39.5%（联盟第一），骑士队下滑是必然的。自从 COVID 缩短的赛季以来，没有球队的三分球命中率超过 40%。
令人惊讶的是，在3月16日这个时间节点之前，对手的三分球命中率为36.4%，排名第15位。考虑到球队通常无法很好地控制对三分球的防守，克利夫兰在整个赛季都保持着联盟前十的防守水平，同时并没有得到对手投篮不佳的运气加持，这证明了他们强大的防守实力，并表明即使对手的投篮命中率很高，他们也能继续赢球。换句话说，骑士队的成功更多地取决于他们自己的命中率——这是他们可以控制的。
话虽如此，我怀疑克利夫兰能否恢复到创造历史的进攻水平。他们的投篮命中率已经不可避免地下降，但多诺万·米切尔(Donovan Mitchell)近期的挣扎更加令人担忧。三月份，米切尔场均只有22.4分，投篮命中率为36.3/21.3/84，而且他因为腹股沟伤势缺席了本月早些时候的几场比赛。复出后，他缺少了一些往常的爆发力，这在最近对阵菲尼克斯的比赛中最为明显，他只得到了7分。有很多次米切尔在突破防守者时显得很挣扎，而那些防守者通常都会被他轻松甩开，骑士队也会刻意寻找米切尔的错位机会。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
令人印象深刻的是，骑士队在这段时间内的进攻效率仍然高达 119.7，排名联盟第八。米切尔在过去三场比赛中合计得到 87 分，投篮命中率为 29/61，也消除了一些我们之前的伤病疑虑。考虑到这一点，克利夫兰的进攻应该仍然是顶级的，尤其是在他们的投篮手感恢复之后。
不幸的是，他们的防守前景并不那么乐观。骑士队令人担忧的 118.9 防守效率值在这段时间内排名第 21 位，这不仅仅是对手投篮运气不佳造成的。相反，骑士队球迷们开始回想起几年前他们与尼克斯队的季后赛系列赛，当时克利夫兰在篮板球上被完全压制，因为自 3 月 16 日以来，他们在防守篮板方面排名联盟垫底，仅抢到 66.3% 的己方篮板。
考虑到他们倾向于使用双塔阵容，怎么会这样呢？好吧，对手球队已经开始更多地在外线攻击埃文·莫布里(Evan Mobley)——不是因为他是一个容易对付的目标，而是为了在内线孤立贾莱特·阿伦(Jarrett Allen)。
这在他们最近输给快船队的比赛中得到了充分的体现，当时伊维察·祖巴茨(Ivica Zubac)统治了内线，砍下 28 分和 20 个篮板。洛杉矶始终将莫布里拉出内线，让祖巴茨在篮筐周围更容易发挥，如下面的比赛片段所示。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
即使有阿伦守护篮筐，祖巴茨在进攻篮板和低位进攻方面也没有遇到任何问题。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
考虑到这一点，骑士队在这段时间内允许对手在篮筐四英尺范围内以 66.5% 的命中率投篮（排名第 15 位）也就不足为奇了，而此前他们在这项数据上排名联盟第一（61.7%）。后一个数字仍然更能代表克利夫兰的天赋水平，因为样本量更大，但这次下滑也表明骑士队仍然可以被内线的体型优势所利用。
总而言之，我并不担心克利夫兰最近的表现。他们在投篮手感差到难以置信的同时，仍然保持着联盟前十的进攻水平，并且米切尔正经历着他本赛季最糟糕的一段时期——他正在走出低谷。防守端有一些更为明显的危险信号，但除了波士顿之外，东部没有其他球队有足够的天赋击败骑士队，即使他们的糟糕的篮板球和内线强度被对手利用。
克利夫兰仍然是顶级的争冠球队，只不过略低于凯尔特人和雷霆的水平。
季后赛席位：狂野西部与沉闷东部
西部
除了第一名之外，西部的其他席位仍然悬而未决。
火箭队以 1.5 场的优势领先掘金队，争夺第二名，而掘金队又以 1.5 场的优势领先湖人队，争夺第三名。这三支球队的剩余赛程难度都排在前十名，但我相信休斯顿和丹佛将保持他们目前的位置，因为他们最近的表现非常出色。
然而，湖人队的情况更为不稳定。即使勒布朗最近复出，他们仍然举步维艰，而且他们还有两场比赛要对阵火箭队和雷霆队。灰熊队落后他们一场比赛，灰熊队刚刚因为一些莫名其妙的原因解雇了泰勒·詹金斯(Taylor Jenkins)，而金州勇士队一直在紧追不舍，只落后半场比赛。考虑到这三支球队的状态，我敢打赌勇士队会以第四名的身份结束常规赛，而接下来的一周将决定这一点：金州勇士队将在短短的四个晚上与灰熊队、湖人队和掘金队交手。
在附加赛区，森林狼队落后勇士队一场比赛，而快船队落后 1.5 场比赛。这两支球队最近都表现出色，而且与另一支球队相比，他们的赛程相对轻松。他们中的一支球队挤掉像灰熊队这样的球队，偷偷进入前六名并非不可想象。灰熊队和森林狼队还将再交手一次，这场比赛可能是他们双方赛季中最重要的一场比赛。
与此同时，附加赛区的底部几乎已经确定，因为小牛队和国王队已经有效地锁定了这些位置。本质上，西部最终取决于谁能排在第 4-8 位，有趣的是，这些位置靠前的球队（湖人队和灰熊队）正在苦苦挣扎并且赛程最为艰难，而其他三支球队（金州勇士队、明尼苏达州和快船队）则在不断上升。
最后，还有两个值得关注的故事线。首先，丹佛和明尼苏达州还有一场比赛，这场比赛可能会对他们是否在第一轮相遇产生巨大的影响。最后，如果 7 号和 8 号种子的球队确保了 7 号种子的位置，他们可能不会太关心他们的第一轮对手，因为这些经验丰富的球队中的一些对休斯顿缺乏尊重。我怀疑任何球队都会故意输球，因为一切都太紧张了，但仍然值得关注。
东部
相比之下，东部则显得不那么引人注目。前几名也同样已经确定，骑士队、凯尔特人队和尼克斯队分别锁定了这些位置。第四和第五名属于步行者队和活塞队，唯一的问题是谁将拥有该系列赛的主场优势。底特律落后印第安纳 1.5 场比赛，剩余赛程也更加艰难，因此他们很可能将在客场开始季后赛。
由于雄鹿队落后活塞队两场比赛，并且刚刚失去了达米安·利拉德(Damian Lillard)，因此 3v6 的对决似乎也已确定。不幸的是，没有了利拉德，我不认为密尔沃基有太多机会击败纽约，即使扬尼斯是这场对决中毋庸置疑的最佳球员。
附加赛也已经确定，亚特兰大将面对奥兰多争夺第七名，而状态火热的公牛队将对阵（状态不佳的）热火队。目前，只有步行者队/活塞队的系列赛似乎注定会在第一轮提供悬念，而且一切都指向骑士队与凯尔特人队在东部决赛中不可避免的重量级对决。
本周，请查看Jeje的文章，了解马刺队和活塞队的重建之间的相似之处！我从未想过要比较这两支球队，但 Jeje 提出了许多有趣的论点来证明他的观点。
感谢您的阅读！我希望每个人都喜欢这个疯狂的 NBA 赛季的最后几周。
所有数据均由 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 提供。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: The struggling Cavs and a discussion on playoff seeding
Around the NBA: The struggling Cavs and a discussion on playoff seeding
Multiple seeds in the West are up for grabs while the East seems set, and how worried should we be about the Cavs?
The Cavs have held the league’s best record for most of the season, until recently.
After rattling off their second 15+ game winning streak this year, Cleveland has gone 4-5 since, including a four-game losing streak. It’s never a good sign to struggle just a few weeks before the playoffs start, but at the same time, this could just be caused by the doldrums of a long season — the 2022 Warriors and 2023 Nuggets also went through similar stretches before storming their way to championships.
So, is this something, or nothing? As usual, the answer lies somewhere in between.
How concerning is Cleveland’s recent slide?
The simplest explanation for the Cavs’ recent struggles is their shooting luck finally running out. Since their winning streak was snapped on March 16th, opponents have shot 39.7% from three against them — the 9th-highest mark league-wide over that span. More worryingly, their own percentages have plummeted, as Cleveland’s making just 33.5% of their attempts, ranking 26th. The Cavs were bound to drop off at some point given that they were making an absurd 39.5% of their three up until that point (1st), and no team has shot over 40% since the COVID-shortened seasons.
Surprisingly, opponents made 36.4% of their threes up until that March 16th cut-off, which ranked 15th. Given that teams generally don’t have much control over defending the three, Cleveland maintaining a top-10 defense throughout the season while not receiving opponent shooting luck is a testament to their strong defense, and it indicates that they can continue winning even when shots are falling against them. In other words, the Cavs’ success is predicated more on their own percentages — something that they can control.
With that said, I doubt Cleveland can get back to putting up historic offensive numbers. Their shooting has already taken an inevitable dip, but the recent struggles of Donovan Mitchell are even more concerning. In March, DMitch has averaged just 22.4 points on 36.3/21.3/84 splits, and he missed a few games earlier in the month due to a groin injury. Since returning, he has lacked some of his usual bounce, which was most evident in a recent game against Phoenix when he only put up 7 points. There were multiple instances of DMitch struggling to blow past defenders who he normally dusts, and ones in which the Cavs were hunting on purposefully.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
Impressively, the Cavs’ offensive rating during this stretch has still been 119.7, good for 8th in the league. DMitch has scored a combined 87 points on 29/61 shooting in the past three games as well to squash some of the injury concerns we had previously. With that in mind, Cleveland’s attack should remain elite, especially after their shooting comes back around.
Unfortunately, their defense doesn’t have as rosy of an outlook. The Cavs’ alarming 118.9 DRTG ranks 21st over this stretch, and it’s not just the cause of poor opponent shooting luck. Rather, Cavs fans have been getting flashbacks to their playoff series against the Knicks a few years ago when Cleveland was dominated on the glass, as they’re ranked last in the league since March 16th in defensive rebounding, grabbing just 66.3% of their own boards.
Given their propensity to play two bigs, how could this be? Well, opposing teams have started attacking Evan Mobley more on the perimeter — not because he’s an easy target, but rather to isolate Jarrett Allen in the paint.
That was on full display in their recent loss against the Clippers, when Ivica Zubac dominated the paint by racking up 28 points and 20 rebounds. LA consistently pulled Mobley out of the paint to give Zubac an easier time around the basket, like the play shown below.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
Even with Allen guarding the rim, Big Zu had no problem grabbing offensive rebounds and scoring against him in the post.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 30, 2025
With that in mind, it’s not a surprise to see the Cavs allowing 66.5% shooting (15th) within four feet of the rim during this stretch, when they were first league-wide (61.7%) prior. That latter number is still more indicative of Cleveland’s talent level given the larger sample size, but this skid also shows that the Cavs can still be exploited by size on the interior.
All in all, I’m not concerned by Cleveland’s play of late. They’ve still been a top-10 offense while shooting unsustainably poor and simultaneously enduring DMitch’s worst stretch of the year — something he’s pulling out of. There are some more red flags on defense, but outside of Boston, no other team in the East is talented enough to beat the Cavs even if their poor rebounding and interior toughness is exploited.
Cleveland remains a top-tier contender, albeit one that’s slightly below the level of the Celtics and Thunder.
Playoff seeding: the wild wild West and boring boring East
West
Outside of the first seed, the rest of the West is still up for grabs.
The Rockets have a 1.5 game lead on the Nuggets for the 2-seed, who, in turn, have a 1.5 game lead on the Lakers for the 3-seed. All three teams are in the top-10 for hardest remaining strength of schedule, but I’m confident that Houston and Denver will remain in their current positions given how they’ve played recently.
The Lakers, however, are in a more precarious position. They’ve struggled even with LeBron returning recently, and they have two games remaining against the Rockets and Thunder both. A game behind them are the Grizzlies, who just fired Taylor Jenkins for some inexplicable reason while Golden State’s been nipping at their heels, trailing by just half a game. Given the forms of these three teams, I’d bet on the Warriors to finish as the four seed, and this upcoming week will determine that: Golden State is set to play against Memphis, LA, and Denver all in the span of just four nights.
In the play-in, the Wolves are a game behind the Warriors while the Clippers are 1.5 games back. Both teams have surged recently and their strength of schedule is relatively easy compared to the other teams. It’s not inconceivable for one of them to sneak into the top six at the expense of a team like Memphis. The Grizzlies and Wolves play once more as well, and that match could be the most important game of both their seasons.
Meanwhile, the bottom of the play-in is pretty much set, as the Mavs and Kings have those spots effectively locked up. Essentially, the West comes down to who finishes in seeds 4-8, with the interesting wrinkle being that the top teams in those spots (LAL & Memphis) are struggling and have the hardest schedules, while the other three clubs (Golden State, Minnesota, LAC) are surging.
Lastly, there are two more storylines to follow. First, Denver and Minnesota have one final game remaining that could have huge ramifications on whether they meet in round one or not. Finally, the teams in the 7 & 8 spots might not be too concerned about their first-round matchup should they secure the seven-seed, given the lack of respect some of these more veteran squads have for Houston. I doubt any team will purposefully throw games given how tight everything is, but it’s still something to follow.
East
The East is a lot less dramatic comparatively. The top has similarly been determined, with the Cavs, Celtics, and Knicks, respectively, locking in those spots. Seeds four and five belong to the Pacers and Pistons, and the only question is who will have home advantage in that series. Detroit is 1.5 games back of Indiana and has a much tougher remaining schedule, so they’ll likely start the playoffs on the road.
With the Bucks two games behind the Pistons and having just lost Damian Lillard, the 3v6 matchup seems set as well. Unfortunately, without Dame, I don’t see much chance of Milwaukee getting past New York, even with Giannis being the undisputed best player in that matchup.
The play-in is all set too, as Atlanta will face Orlando for the seventh seed while the red-hot Bulls take on the (not very hot) Heat. At this point, only the Pacers/Pistons series seems destined to provide intrigue in round one, and everything’s pointing toward an inevitable Cavs-Celtics heavyweight tilt in the East Finals.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on the similarities between the Spurs’ and Pistons’ rebuilds! I never thought to compare these two franchises, but Jeje makes a number of interesting arguments to drive home his point.
Thanks for reading! I hope everyone’s enjoying the final weeks of this crazy NBA season.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock