By Eric.Fritts | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-03-25 02:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
斯蒂芬·卡斯尔是年度最佳新秀的最大热门，随着职业生涯的演变，他会成长为什么样的球员？
随着NBA和马刺队进入赛季冲刺阶段，又一个赛季接近尾声，关于各项奖项的讨论自然而然地升温。不幸的是，由于维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)因深静脉血栓未能达到65场比赛的门槛，本赛季的颁奖季将不如马刺球迷最初希望的那样精彩。尽管如此，赛季之初许多人就看到了一个亮点，那就是斯蒂芬·卡斯尔(Stephon Castle)。
卡斯尔现在是年度最佳新秀奖当之无愧的热门人选。同一支球队连续获得年度最佳新秀的现象极为罕见。在现代，这种情况只发生过一次——明尼苏达森林狼队的安德鲁·威金斯(Andrew Wiggins)（2015年）和卡尔-安东尼·唐斯(Karl Anthony-Towns)（2016年）——在NBA和ABA历史上还有四次，其中两次得益于获奖者可以并列。
虽然年度最佳新秀是一项很高的荣誉，但它并不总能保证球员未来的发展方向，因为获奖者会发现自己走上各种不同的道路。对于一些球员来说，他们最终可能只会是稍显平庸的角色球员。对于另一些球员，比如文班亚马，这是一条早已注定的通往超级巨星的道路。对于卡斯尔来说，情况则不太明朗。
从他的进攻端来看，虽然偶有闪光，但并没有哪一方面特别突出。他的传球和场上指挥能力肯定开始变得成熟，正如他在最近战胜76人队的比赛中送出14次助攻所展现的那样。他的得分也开始有所提高，从全明星赛前的场均12.9分跃升至全明星赛后的17.4分。
毫无疑问，这部分是由于德阿隆·福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)因手指手术提前结束赛季，从而提供了额外的机会。根据NBA.com的数据，这导致卡斯尔的使用率从全明星赛前的23.5%提高到全明星赛后的28.1%。总的来说，他在至少出场10场比赛的新秀中，使用率是最高的。亚特兰大老鹰队的扎卡里·里萨谢(Zaccharie Risacher)以19.8%的使用率位居第二。
然而，更多的机会并不总是意味着更高的效率。年仅20岁的他，如果因为肩负更多责任而表现下滑，也不会让人感到惊讶，但他反而表现出色。令人鼓舞的是，他不仅找到了承担责任的方法，而且还在不断成长为一名更好的球员。他挺身而出，满足了球队的需求。
这又回到了最初的问题，卡斯尔最终会成为什么样的球员？在康涅狄格大学时期，他最引人注目的方面是他的防守以及他所在球队获得的全国冠军。这两者都展现了他的韧性，以及他为胜利做出贡献的能力。今年也没有什么不同。
为了用高阶数据来捕捉这一点，Dunksandthrees.com提供了一个名为估计正负值或EPM的指标。目前，卡斯尔的EPM为-1.5，略低于联盟平均水平。但将此放在语境中看，对于一名新秀来说，这是一个很强的数字。除了文班亚马惊人的+3.0之外，之前的年度最佳新秀的EPM最终都在-1.2到+0.1之间。
在联盟中寻找一个好的比较对象，一位前马刺球员脱颖而出：德里克·怀特(Derrick White)。马刺球迷都知道，怀特进入NBA的道路与卡斯尔截然不同。但是，如果你把卡斯尔所做的一切都提升到一个新的水平，怀特就是最终的结果。他是圣安东尼奥马刺队的一名实力悍将，此后成为了波士顿一支冠军球队不可或缺的一部分。无论是在防守、投篮、传球还是突破方面，他所做出的贡献都是无价的。
就EPM而言，怀特是+3.2，在联盟中排名第95位。他不是超级巨星，但他在自己的角色中表现出色，达到了不可替代的程度。在一支拥有两名球星的球队中，卡斯尔很可能为马刺队填补这个位置。这在未来会显得尤为重要。到了季后赛，球队需要球员挺身而出，填补空缺。每一轮系列赛都不一样，拥有一个无所不能的球员几乎是不可替代的。
到目前为止，卡斯尔正在寻找这条道路。更重要的是，这种风格不仅适合他身边的阵容，也符合马刺队的理念。无论是否获得年度最佳新秀，他都是马刺队的完美选择。
点击查看原文：What Stephon Castle’s Rookie of the Year season says about his future
What Stephon Castle’s Rookie of the Year season says about his future
Steph Castle is the odds on favorite for Rookie of the Year, what kind of player can he turn into as his career evolves?
As the NBA and the Spurs work through the stretch-run and another season draws closer to the finish line, the discussion around awards has naturally started to find its kindling. Unfortunately, with Victor Wembanyama not reaching the 65-game threshold due to his deep vein thrombosis, this award season will be less eventful than Spurs fans initially hoped. Nonetheless, there is a bright spot that many saw along the horizon at the dawn of the season, Stephon Castle.
Castle is now the overwhelming favorite for Rookie of the Year honors. Sequential Rookie of the Year winners from the same franchise are extremely rare. The phenomenon has occurred only once in the modern era — Andrew Wiggins (2015) and Karl Anthony-Towns (2016) of the Minnesota Timberwolves — and four other times in NBA and ABA history, two of which were assisted by the ability for winners to tie.
While Rookie of the Year is a high honor, it doesn’t always guarantee where a player will go from there, as there are a variety of different paths winners have found themselves taking. For some players, they may end being little more than a glorified role player. For others, such as Wembanyama, it’s the path to superstardom that was already set in stone. For Castle, it’s less clear.
Looking at his offensive game, there isn’t one specific aspect that jumps out, although there have been flashes. His passing and floor command has certainly started to show polish, as was on display with his 14 assists in a recent win over the 76ers. His scoring has started to come along as well, jumping from 12.9 points per game pre-All-Star to 17.4 post-All-Star.
This is no doubt partially due to the additional opportunity provided as fellow guard De’Aaron Fox’s season ended early due to finger surgery. This has resulted in an increase in Castle’s usage from 23.5 to 28.1 percent from pre to post-All-Star, per NBA.com. Overall, he has the highest usage of any rookie that has played at least 10 games. Atlanta’s Zaccharie Risacher comes closest with 19.8 percent.
However, more opportunity does not always equal more productivity. At only 20 years old, it would not have been surprising to see him slump as more weight was put on his shoulders, but instead, he has thrived. It’s very encouraging that he has found a way to not only hold the responsibilities, but continue to grow as a player. He’s stepped up to where the team needs him.
And that circles back to the initial question about what kind of player Castle could eventually be. Coming out of UConn, the most notable aspects of his game were his defense and his team’s National Championship win. Both showed his tenacity, and his ability to contribute to winning. This year has been no different.
Trying to capture this with advanced statistics, Dunksandthrees.com has the metric of estimated plus/minus or EPM. Currently, Castle is at -1.5 sitting, just below the league average. To put that into context, it’s a strong number for a rookie. With the exception of Wembanyama’s ridiculous +3.0, previous Rookie of the Year winners finished their seasons within -1.2 to +0.1.
Looking around the league and trying to find a good comparison, one former Spur jumps out: Derrick White. As Spurs fans know, White had a much different path to the NBA than Castle. However, if you augment everything Castle does to the next level, White is the result. He was a strong player for San Antonio but has since gone on to be an integral part of a championship team in Boston. He is invaluable in what he contributes, whether that be defense, shooting, passing, or getting to the basket.
In terms of EPM, White is a +3.2, 95th percentile of the league. He isn’t a superstar, but he excels in his role at an irreplaceable level. On a team with two stars, Castle could very well fit into that slot for the Spurs. This is especially valuable further down the road. Come playoff time, teams need players to step up and fill in the gaps. Every series is different, and having a player that can be everywhere becomes nearly irreplaceable.
So far, Castle is finding that path. What’s more, this style not only fits within the roster around him, but within the Spurs philosophy. Rookie of the Year or not, he was the perfect pick for the Spurs.
By Eric.Fritts, via Pounding The Rock