By Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-03-24 20:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
3月14日，犹他爵士队主场迎战多伦多猛龙队，原本应该是一次终结主场对阵胜率低于50%球队的七连败的机会。爵士队头号得分手劳里·马尔卡宁(Lauri Markkanen)在缺席了过去七场比赛中的六场后，也回到了首发阵容。
然而，球迷们看到的不是全明星前锋马尔卡宁和斯科蒂·巴恩斯(Scottie Barnes)之间的对决，而是两队在第四节都派上了大量新秀和替补球员。马尔卡宁下半场没有再出场，而巴恩斯和多伦多其他经验丰富的首发球员（RJ·巴雷特(RJ Barrett)和伊曼纽尔·奎克利(Immanuel Quickley)）也只在最后一节的前两分钟上场，随后就再也没有回到场上。
在比赛的关键时刻，两队场上共有五名新秀，且只有一名球员（犹他前锋布莱斯·森萨博(Brice Sensabaugh)）本赛季场均得分上双。最终，猛龙队获胜，将爵士队的连败纪录扩大到八场。犹他队也因此更接近锁定联盟战绩最差的三支球队之一，这能让他们在选秀中获得状元的最佳概率。
在几乎每个赛季的最后几周，NBA的积分榜上都有两场竞赛：一场是争夺季后赛席位，另一场是争夺最佳选秀乐透抽签概率。
但由于杜克大学球星库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)——一位划时代的潜力新秀——以及通常的重建球队（包括爵士队、猛龙队和华盛顿奇才队）之外，还有一些球队（费城76人队、圣安东尼奥马刺队和新奥尔良鹈鹕队）因一系列伤病而赛季提前结束，因此本赛季的“摆烂”竞争达到了新的高度。
尽管最近出台了防止明星球员缺席过多比赛的规则，但摆烂问题依然存在。虽然NBA内部人士正在考虑遏制这种做法的新方法，但联盟中最差的球队正在寻找新的方法来积累赛季末的失利。
一位NBA高管表示：“未来几周，可能会是我们见过的最严重的摆烂时期。”
为什么NBA球队要摆烂？
任何参与联盟年度“摆烂”竞赛的人都会告诉你，这是一个痛苦的过程。努力以尽可能少的胜场结束比赛，并非是球队通常渴望做的事情。
但参与者也会说，获得高顺位选秀权是在最高水平上取得胜利的最可靠途径。而且没有人预计这种情况会很快改变。
NBA战略与分析执行副总裁埃文·瓦施(Evan Wasch)告诉ESPN：“从理念上讲，我没有意识到有人在认真推动取消我们目前选秀的理念，即把靠前的选秀权授予最需要天赋的球队。这是我们目前选秀制度的一个基本原则。”
NBA上次在2019年修改的这项制度，根据每年五月举行的乐透抽签，以递减的概率奖励球队获得选秀前四顺位。战绩最差的三支球队各有14%的几率抽到状元签，以及52.1%的几率进入前四顺位。（对于战绩最好的乐透球队，这些概率会降至0.5%的几率赢得状元签，以及2.1%的几率获得前四顺位。）
乐透抽签的存在是有原因的。获得高顺位选秀权是获得改变球队命运的天才球员的更直接方式，至少从历史上来看是如此：
在过去的45年里，有五支总冠军球队并非由一位赢得或曾经赢得NBA最有价值球员奖项的球员所带领：去年的凯尔特人队、2019年的多伦多猛龙队以及1989年、1990年和2004年的底特律活塞队。
在剩余的40支球队中，以下14名球员中的一位至少是其中一支球队的成员：魔术师约翰逊(Magic Johnson)、拉里·伯德(Larry Bird)、朱利叶斯·欧文(Julius Erving)、迈克尔·乔丹(Michael Jordan)、哈基姆·奥拉朱旺(Hakeem Olajuwon)、沙奎尔·奥尼尔(Shaquille O’Neal)、蒂姆·邓肯(Tim Duncan)、科比·布莱恩特(Kobe Bryant)、凯文·加内特(Kevin Garnett)、德克·诺维茨基(Dirk Nowitzki)、勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)、斯蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)、扬尼斯·安特托昆博(Giannis Antetokounmpo)或尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)。
这14名球员中有5位——约翰逊、奥拉朱旺、奥尼尔、邓肯和詹姆斯——是状元秀。只有四位——科比、诺维茨基、安特托昆博和约基奇——是在前七顺位之外被选中的。
即使在这五支例外球队中，也只有由科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)率领的猛龙队拥有一名在前三顺位之外被选中的球员。2004年NBA总决赛MVP昌西·比卢普斯(Chauncey Billups)在1997年以第三顺位被选中，而目前的凯尔特人队球星杰伦·布朗(Jaylen Brown)和杰森·塔图姆(Jayson Tatum)分别在2016年和2017年以同样的顺位被选中。与此同时，1989年和1990年活塞队的灵魂人物伊塞亚·托马斯(Isiah Thomas)在1981年以第二顺位被选中。
在过去的45年里，有五支NBA总冠军球队是由在前七顺位之外被选中的球员所带领的。
这就是NBA球队摆烂的原因。今年也不例外。
本赛季球队是如何摆烂的？
当NBA在2023-24赛季之前颁布“球员参与政策”时，目标并非是摆烂的球队。联盟的目标是确保健康的球星不会缺席比赛。然而，这些规则也要求那些注定要参加乐透抽签的球队，在没有真正伤病的情况下，不能让他们的球星休战。
爵士队在本月早些时候违反了该政策，因为没有让马尔卡宁在3月5日对阵奇才队的比赛中出场，以及“其他比赛”而被罚款10万美元。
对于获得高顺位选秀权来说，这是一个很小的代价，但随着罚款的增加——下一次违规将使爵士队损失25万美元——该球队在3月14日输给多伦多队的比赛中采取了一种替代策略。
马尔卡宁在那场比赛中的使用方式是猛龙队自从全明星赛后一直在做的事情的极端版本：在关键时刻将他们的关键球员放在板凳上。
在那段时间里，按照NBA高阶数据的定义（常规时间最后五分钟或加时赛中分差在五分以内），多伦多队打了37.5分钟的“关键”时间。猛龙队将更多的关键时间给了赛季中途签约或签下双向合同的球员（合计46分钟），而不是球队的头号得分手巴恩斯和巴雷特（43分钟）。
与此同时，自从全明星赛后，爵士队限制马尔卡宁只打了25分钟关键时间中的4分钟。值得注意的是，犹他队一直小心翼翼地避免让马尔卡宁对阵其他注定参加乐透抽签的球队。马尔卡宁本赛季缺席的比赛对手的综合胜率为.450，而他面对的球队的综合胜率为.545。
爵士队的首发中锋沃克·凯斯勒(Walker Kessler)继续缺席比赛，包括犹他队输给多伦多队的比赛。在那场比赛中，他的状态被列为“DNP-CD”——未出场，教练的决定——此前凯斯勒曾在六场比赛中被列为因休息而缺席，包括马尔卡宁缺席并导致罚款的那场比赛。
“球迷们知道我们正在经历重建赛季，但我确实认为我们的球员们正在以一种让球迷仍然喜欢观看的方式打比赛，”爵士队教练威尔·哈迪(Will Hardy)在本月早些时候表示，“我们的年轻球员们打得非常努力，我们并不完美，有些夜晚很粗糙和丑陋，但我的确认为这些家伙的竞争精神和青春活力是我们的球迷喜欢看到的。”
“对于我们的球队来说，这是一个值得骄傲的点，我不在乎谁在场上，我希望我们的球迷知道我们的球队会充满激情和快乐地比赛。”
瓦施表示，NBA将继续监控球员的出场情况，特别是像马尔卡宁这样的合格球星，但对于球队在关键时刻将首发球员放在板凳上表示没有问题。
“我们不会以这种方式来监管轮换，”瓦施说，“如果联盟介入并说一支球队选择让一名球员上场而不是另一名球员上场，并且这是一个错误的决定，我认为这是一个有点滑坡。…
“顺便说一句，这些（年轻的）家伙中的一些人实际上会赢得比赛。”
弗拉格被视为值得摆烂的划时代潜力新秀
在进入大学赛季之前，弗拉格是否是符合2025年选秀资格的最佳新秀仍然存在一些问题。罗格斯大学二人组艾斯·贝利(Ace Bailey)和迪伦·哈珀(Dylan Harper)以及贝勒大学后卫VJ·埃奇科姆(VJ Edgecombe)都在竞争行列，后者去年夏天曾在FIBA奥运会预选赛中与巴哈马队一起在国际上崭露头角。
由于弗拉格即使是按照大一新生的标准来看也是最年轻的球员之一，但仍然在争夺全国年度最佳球员，因此这场争论已经尘埃落定。那些竞相摆烂的球队中的NBA球探们正在思考弗拉格在最近的状元秀中排名有多高。
“他与众不同之处在于，即使按照大一新生的标准来看，他也很年轻，”一位球探在谈到弗拉格时说，他要到12月才满19岁，“尽管如此，他在对抗精英对手的比赛中，在比赛的各个阶段都表现出色。”
在本月早些时候举行的麻省理工学院斯隆体育分析会议上，分析专家们一致认为弗拉格在状元秀中排名约为第85百分位——也就是说，比85%的状元秀球员更好。
自从2005年NBA实行目前的年龄限制以来，弗拉格预计的5.2胜场贡献值(WARP)在状元秀中排名第三，仅次于安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)（2012年）和杜克大学球星锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)（2019年）。与弗拉格一样，戴维斯和威廉姆森都激发了激烈的摆烂竞争。
WARP预测值最高的状元秀
| 球员 | 选秀年份 | 年龄 | WARP | 共识 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 锡安·威廉姆森 | 2019 | 18.8 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| 安东尼·戴维斯 | 2012 | 19.1 | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| 库珀·弗拉格 | 2025 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| 凯里·欧文 | 2011 | 19.1 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| 布雷克·格里芬 | 2009 | 20.1 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| 安德鲁·博古特 | 2005 | 20.4 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| 格雷格·奥登 | 2007 | 19.2 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| 卡尔-安东尼·唐斯 | 2015 | 19.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| 维克托·文班亚马 | 2023 | 19.3 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| 本·西蒙斯 | 2016 | 19.8 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| 安德烈亚·巴尼亚尼 | 2006 | 20.5 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| 约翰·沃尔 | 2010 | 19.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| 德安德烈·艾顿 | 2018 | 19.7 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| 安德鲁·威金斯 | 2014 | 19.2 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| 马凯尔·富尔茨 | 2017 | 18.9 | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| 安东尼·爱德华兹 | 2020 | 18.7 | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| 德里克·罗斯 | 2008 | 19.5 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| 凯德·康宁汉姆 | 2021 | 19.6 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| 安东尼·本内特 | 2013 | 20.1 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| 保罗·班切罗 | 2022 | 19.4 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
任何基于统计的预测都将高度强调新秀相对于年龄的表现，而这正是弗拉格的优势所在。他在全国年度最佳球员奖项上的主要竞争对手，奥本大学五年级前锋约翰尼·布鲁姆(Johni Broome)比他大了四年多。
正如这位球探所指出的那样，大多数像弗拉格这样年龄的球员仍然在高中完成他们的高中生涯。由于弗拉格在2023年夏天重新分级，进入他在佛罗里达州蒙特沃德学院的最后一年，他将成为选秀时第二年轻的状元秀，仅次于勒布朗·詹姆斯。（而且实际上比高中生球员夸梅·布朗(Kwame Brown)和德怀特·霍华德(Dwight Howard)更年轻。）
虽然弗拉格的年龄和表现并不能保证他会加入那些赢得总冠军的状元秀行列，但它们解释了为什么球队正在寻找新的方法来确保他们能够选中他。
联盟正在讨论哪些解决方案？
NBA一直愿意做出改变，但它们通常需要时间才能显现。
下一个反摆烂措施会是什么？我们调查了联盟中的消息来源，了解可以采取哪些措施来改善赛季末的几个月：
- 进一步拉平乐透抽签概率
NBA选秀曾经有一个乐透抽签，所有未进入季后赛的球队都有相同的几率向上移动。在奥兰多魔术队在1992年和1993年赢得状元签后，这种情况结束了。在后一个赛季，当时的状元秀沙奎尔·奥尼尔还是一名新秀，魔术队以41胜41负的战绩成为所有乐透球队中战绩最好的球队。一位高管建议，在2019年调整后，进一步拉平抽签概率。
这也有一个明显的缺点：如果给予太多球队相同的获得状元签的概率，一些球队可能会权衡，获得改变球队命运的潜力新秀的机会是否比争取季后赛席位更好。
- 全明星赛后计算胜场而不是负场
在目前的制度下，排名靠后的球队会因为在赛季的最后两个月输掉尽可能多的比赛而获得奖励。如果这个概念被颠倒过来会怎么样？
通过使下半赛季的一部分赛程（例如全明星赛后或最后20场比赛）以相反的方式运作——在那段时间里获得最多胜场的球队将决定乐透抽签概率——这显然会创建一个制度，让糟糕的球队有充分的理由努力比赛并让他们的球星上场。
以去年的赛季为例。马刺队在全明星赛前取得了11胜44负的战绩（.200），但在那之后取得了11胜16负的战绩（.407）。通过将他们在休赛期前的胜场和休赛期后的负场相加（反之亦然），马刺队的“乐透战绩”为27胜55负——尽管实际战绩为22胜60负——将因为在最后阶段保持竞争力而获得更好的乐透抽签概率。
一位高管表示：“这将激励每个人竞争到最后。”
以下是如果这项规则适用于全明星赛后的比赛，上赛季的乐透排名将如何变化：
奖励乐透球队的胜场？
一个解决方案是，在确定选秀乐透概率时，使用全明星赛前的负场数 和 全明星赛后的胜场数。以下是如果这项规则生效，上赛季的乐透排名将如何变化：
| 球队 | 全明星赛前 | 全明星赛后 | 实际 | 修订后 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 底特律活塞队 | 8-46 | 6-22 | 14-68 | 30-52 |
| 华盛顿奇才队 | 9-45 | 6-22 | 15-67 | 31-51 |
| 夏洛特黄蜂队 | 13-41 | 7-20 | 21-61 | 33-49 |
| 波特兰开拓者队 | 15-39 | 6-22 | 21-61 | 37-45 |
| 圣安东尼奥马刺队 | 11-44 | 11-16 | 22-60 | 27-55 |
| 多伦多猛龙队 | 19-36 | 6-21 | 25-57 | 40-42 |
| 孟菲斯灰熊队 | 20-36 | 7-19 | 27-55 | 39-43 |
| 犹他爵士队 | 26-30 | 5-21 | 31-51 | 47-35 |
| 布鲁克林篮网队 | 21-33 | 11-17 | 32-50 | 38-44 |
| 亚特兰大老鹰队 | 24-31 | 12-15 | 36-46 | 39-43 |
| 芝加哥公牛队 | 26-29 | 13-14 | 39-43 | 40-42 |
| 休斯顿火箭队 | 24-30 | 17-11 | 41-41 | 35-47 |
| 萨克拉门托国王队 | 31-23 | 15-13 | 46-36 | 44-38 |
| 金州勇士队 | 27-26 | 19-10 | 46-36 | 37-45 |
最大的赢家是两支努力进入季后赛的球队（休斯顿和金州）和马刺队，他们在常规赛结束时都很有竞争力。与此同时，猛龙队和爵士队都在常规赛的最后几周输掉了大量的比赛，试图保住他们受保护的首轮选秀权。（犹他队成功了，多伦多队没有。）
这引出了教练、球探和高管的另一项建议：
- 修改（或取消）选秀保护
最明目张胆的摆烂案例来自希望保留其乐透选秀权的球队。达拉斯小牛队在2023年最后几场比赛中摆烂以保留前10顺位保护的选秀权是最近最恶劣的例子。（摆烂的决定使小牛队损失了75万美元，但为他们带来了首发中锋德里克·莱夫利二世(Dereck Lively II)，他是球队进入2024年总决赛的关键贡献者。）本赛季，76人队希望在伤病破坏了他们的征程后，为6月份保留 他们的 前6顺位保护的选秀权。
多位消息人士告诉ESPN，减少摆烂的一个简单方法是取消乐透中段的选秀保护。要么让选秀权受到前4顺位的保护——这意味着球队可以在乐透中向上跳——乐透保护，或者不受保护。这项调整将消除最恶劣的摆烂例子。
瓦施说：“乐透改革的目标之一实际上是平滑乐透中的结果，这样任何球队都不会看着它说，我作为第三支乐透球队而不是第四支，或者作为第八支乐透球队而不是第九支，有显着的益处。这是我们一直非常关注的事情。”
“当然，选秀保护问题以另一种方式解决了这个问题。如果一支球队拥有受前10顺位保护的选秀权，那么他们以战绩第10差的球队或第11差的球队结束比赛实际上非常重要。我们正在看到这种动态。”
- 让乐透概率由这些球队之间的比赛结果决定
一位高管提出的一个想法是，让14支乐透球队根据他们在常规赛中彼此之间的表现来排序。球队有理由在每场比赛中竞争，尤其是在对抗这些其他注定要参加乐透抽签的球队时。
然而，这一个想法有一个明显的问题：那些处于附加赛边缘的球队，以及参加附加赛的球队，可能会被迫争夺靠前的选秀权，而不是竞争季后赛。
- 强制执行现行规则
联盟中的一些人认为目前的制度很好。糟糕的球队是存在的，而争夺乐透排名只是这项运动的一部分。
但随着球队试图沉入积分榜底部的浪潮到来，一些消息人士认为，减少球队让健康球员休战的涌入将解决许多当前的抱怨，而不是进一步调整制度。一位高管表示：“让我们从那里开始。”
最终，获得靠前的选秀权仍然是获得改变球队命运的球员的最可靠途径。但NBA已经尝试遏制摆烂，从拉平乐透抽签概率到创建附加赛，以给更多球队理由在常规赛结束时继续比赛。瓦施表示：“我认为我们已经看到了很多积极的趋势。”
但瓦施也表示，摆烂问题以及解决摆烂问题的方法可能会在NBA的竞赛委员会中提出。
瓦施说：“在经历了本赛季之后，我们有理由期望我们会重新与我们的竞赛委员会接触，看看他们是否想探索任何可以解决这个问题的方法。”
点击查看原文：Can the NBA fix tanking? Why it's worse this season, plus 5 solutions
Can the NBA fix tanking? Why it’s worse this season, plus 5 solutions
When the Utah Jazz hosted the Toronto Raptors on March 14, it should have been an opportunity to end a seven-game losing streak at home against a below-.500 team. And after missing six of those seven games, Jazz leading scorer Lauri Markkanen was in the starting lineup.
Instead of a matchup between All-Star forwards Markkanen and Scottie Barnes, fans watched a fourth quarter filled with rookies and reserves from both teams. Markkanen did not return for the second half, while Barnes and Toronto’s other veteran starters (RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley) played only the first two minutes of the final period before leaving for good.
With the game on the line, the teams finished with a combined five rookies on the court and just one player (Utah forward Brice Sensabaugh) averaging double-figure scoring this season. The Raptors won and pushed the Jazz’s losing streak to eight. Utah also took a step closer to securing one of the league’s three worst records – which provides the best odds at securing the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Over the final few weeks of nearly every season, there are two races in the NBA standings: one to secure playoff positioning, and another for the best draft lottery odds.
But with the combination of Duke star Cooper Flagg – a generational prospect – and the usual rebuilding teams (including the Jazz, Raptors and Washington Wizards) joined by several others (the Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans) that have had their seasons cut short because of a series of injuries, the race to the bottom is breaking new ground.
Despite recent rules to prevent star players from sitting out too many games, the issue of tanking won’t go away. And though NBA insiders mull new ways to curtail the practice, the league’s worst teams are finding new ways to rack up late-season losses.
“These next few weeks,” one NBA executive said, “could be the worst tanking stretch we’ve ever seen.”
Why do NBA teams tank?
Anyone involved in the league’s annual race to the bottom will tell you it’s a miserable process. Trying to finish with as few wins as possible isn’t something franchises normally aspire to do.
But those involved will also say securing a high draft pick is the surest path to winning at the highest level. And no one expects that to change soon.
“Philosophically, I’m not aware of anyone making a serious push to eliminate our current philosophy of the draft, which is to award top picks to teams that are most in need of talent,” Evan Wasch, the NBA’s executive vice president of strategy and analytics, told ESPN. “That is a fundamental tenet of our current draft system.”
That system, which the NBA last changed in 2019, rewards teams with a sliding scale of odds to land one of the top four spots in the draft based on its annual lottery in May. The three teams with the worst records each receive a 14% chance of landing the top pick in the draft and a 52.1% chance of getting one of the top four. (Those odds slide down to the lottery team with the best record, which has a 0.5% chance of winning the top pick in the draft and a 2.1% chance of landing a top-four selection.)
The lottery exists for a reason. Getting a high lottery pick is the more direct way to land a franchise-changing talent that is required, at least historically:
Over the past 45 years, five title-winning teams weren’t led by a player who would win, or had won, the NBA’s MVP award: last year’s Celtics, the 2019 Toronto Raptors and the Detroit Pistons in 1989, 1990 and 2004.
Among those remaining 40 teams, one of the following 14 players was a member of at least one of them: Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokic.
Five of those 14 players – Johnson, Olajuwon, O’Neal, Duncan and James – were taken first overall. And only four – Bryant, Nowitzki, Antetokounmpo and Jokic – were picked outside the top seven spots.
Even among those five outlier teams, only the Kawhi Leonard-led Raptors featured a player who was taken outside the top three. The 2004 NBA Finals MVP was Chauncey Billups, selected third overall in 1997, the same spot that current Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum were selected in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Meanwhile, Isiah Thomas, the talisman of those 1989 and 1990 champion Pistons, was taken second overall in 1981.
Over the past 45 years, five NBA champions were led by a player taken outside the top seven spots in the draft.
That’s why NBA teams tank. And this year is no exception.
How have teams tanked this season?
When the NBA enacted the “player participation policy” before the 2023-24 season, tanking teams were not the target. The league’s goal was to ensure healthy stars weren’t sitting out games. However, the rules also require lottery-bound teams not to shut down their star players without a legitimate injury.
The Jazz ran afoul of the policy earlier this month and were fined $100,000 for not making Markkanen available for a game March 5 against the Wizards “and other games.”
A small price to pay for a top pick, but with escalating fines – the next violation would cost the Jazz $250,000 – the team took an alternative strategy in the March 14 loss to Toronto.
Markkanen’s usage in that game was an extreme version of what the Raptors have done since the All-Star break: benching their key players in clutch time.
Over that span, Toronto has played 37.5 “clutch” minutes by the definition of NBA Advanced Stats (the margin within five points in the last five minutes of regulation, or in overtime). The Raptors have given more of those minutes to players signed midseason or on two-way contracts (a combined 46) than leading scorers Barnes and Barrett (43).
Meanwhile, the Jazz have limited Markkanen to four of their 25 clutch minutes since the All-Star break. Notably, Utah has been careful about playing Markkanen against other lottery-bound teams. The games Markkanen has missed this season have come against opponents with a combined .450 winning percentage, compared with .545 for the teams he has faced.
Starting Jazz center Walker Kessler has continued to sit out games, including Utah’s loss to Toronto. That game was listed as a “DNP-CD” – did not play, coach’s decision – after Kessler was previously listed as out due to rest in six games, including the one missed by Markkanen that resulted in a fine.
"[Fans] know we’re going through rebuilding seasons, but I do think that our players are playing the games in a way that our fans still enjoy watching,"Jazz coach Will Hardy said earlier this month. "Our young players play really hard and we’re imperfect, and some nights are sloppy and ugly and all those things, but I do think the competitive spirit, the energy of the youth of these guys is something that our fans enjoy watching.
“For our team, it’s been a point of pride that I don’t care who’s on the court, I want our fans to know that our team is going to play with a ton of passion and joy.”
Wasch said the NBA will continue to monitor player availability, particularly qualifying stars like Markkanen, but expressed no issue with teams leaving starters on the bench in key moments.
“We are not in the business of policing rotations in that way,” Wasch said. "For the league to step in and say that a team chose to play one player over another player and that was the wrong decision, I think that’s a bit of a slippery slope. …
“And oh, by the way, some of those [younger] guys actually go win the game.”
Flagg seen as a generational prospect worth tanking for
Entering the college season, there was still some question whether Flagg was the best prospect eligible for the 2025 draft. The Rutgers’ duo of Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper was in the mix, along with Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, who had starred internationally with the Bahamas in FIBA Olympic qualifiers last summer.
With Flagg in contention for National Player of the Year despite being one of the youngest players in college basketball, that debate has been settled. NBA scouts on teams racing to the bottom are instead pondering just how high Flagg ranks among recent No. 1 overall prospects.
“What makes him unique is the combination of the fact that, even by freshman standards, he’s young,” a scout said of Flagg, who won’t turn 19 until December. “And, in spite of that, he’s been productive in every phase of the game against elite competition.”
The consensus among analytics experts at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference earlier this month placed Flagg around the 85th percentile of No. 1 picks – that is, better than 85% of those players selected.
Since 2005, the first draft with the NBA’s current age limit, Flagg’s 5.2 projected wins above replacement player (WARP) rank third among top picks, behind only Anthony Davis (2012) and fellow star Duke prospect Zion Williamson (2019). Like Flagg, both Davis and Williamson inspired intense races to the bottom of the standings.
Top No. 1 Picks by WARP Projections
| Player | Draft | Age | WARP | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 2019 | 18.8 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| Anthony Davis | 2012 | 19.1 | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| Cooper Flagg | 2025 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 5.2 |
| Kyrie Irving | 2011 | 19.1 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| Blake Griffin | 2009 | 20.1 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| Andrew Bogut | 2005 | 20.4 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Greg Oden | 2007 | 19.2 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 2015 | 19.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 2023 | 19.3 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Ben Simmons | 2016 | 19.8 | 2.9 | 3.9 |
| Andrea Bargnani | 2006 | 20.5 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| John Wall | 2010 | 19.6 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| Deandre Ayton | 2018 | 19.7 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 2014 | 19.2 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| Markelle Fultz | 2017 | 18.9 | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| Anthony Edwards | 2020 | 18.7 | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| Derrick Rose | 2008 | 19.5 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
| Cade Cunningham | 2021 | 19.6 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Anthony Bennett | 2013 | 20.1 | 1.3 | 2.8 |
| Paolo Banchero | 2022 | 19.4 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
Any stats-based projection will heavily emphasize a prospect’s production relative to his age, and that’s where Flagg stands out. His main competition for National Player of the Year, Auburn fifth-year senior forward Johni Broome, is more than four years older.
As the scout noted, most players Flagg’s age are still finishing their prep careers as seniors in high school. Because Flagg reclassified in summer 2023, going into his last year at Montverde Academy in Florida, he would be the second-youngest player at the time they were drafted No. 1, behind only LeBron James. (And younger, in fact, than high school draftees Kwame Brown and Dwight Howard.)
Although Flagg’s age and production don’t guarantee he’ll join the list of No. 1 picks who have produced championships, they explain why teams are chasing new ways to ensure they can draft him.
What solutions are being discussed around the league?
The NBA has been willing to make changes, but they usually take time to manifest.
What could be the next anti-tanking measure? We canvassed sources around the league for ideas as to what, if anything, could be done to improve the closing months of the season:
1. Flatten the lottery odds even more
The NBA draft used to have a lottery where all nonplayoff teams had the same chance to move up. That ended after the Orlando Magic won the top spot in 1992 and 1993. In the latter season, when No. 1 pick Shaquille O’Neal was a rookie, the Magic had the best record of any lottery team at 41-41. One executive suggested a further flattening of the odds from where they’re following the 2019 adjustment.
This comes with a clear downside: give too many teams the same odds at the top pick, a few might weigh whether a chance at a franchise-altering prospect is preferrable to pushing for the postseason.
2. Count wins instead of losses after the All-Star break
Under the current system, teams at the bottom are rewarded for losing as many games as possible during the final two months of the season. What if that concept was turned on its head?
By making a portion of the second-half schedule (post-All-Star break or the final 20 games, for example) work in the opposite fashion – the most wins during that stretch would determine the lottery odds – it would obviously create a system where bad teams would have every reason to play hard and play their stars.
Take last season for an example. The Spurs had an 11-44 record (.200) before the All-Star break, but then went 11-16 (.407) afterward. By adding their pre-break wins and post-break losses (and vice versa), the Spurs’ “lottery record” of 27-55 – despite an actual mark of 22-60 – would get rewarded with better lottery odds for remaining competitive during that final stretch.
“It would incentivize everyone to compete to the end,” an executive said.
Here is how last season’s lottery standings would have changed if this rule had been in place for games after the All-Star break:
Rewarding wins for lottery-bound teams?
One solution would be using pre-All Star break losses and post ASG break wins when determining draft lottery odds. Here is how last season’s lottery standings would have changed:
| Team | Pre-ASG | Post-ASG | Actual | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 8-46 | 6-22 | 14-68 | 30-52 |
| Washington Wizards | 9-45 | 6-22 | 15-67 | 31-51 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 13-41 | 7-20 | 21-61 | 33-49 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 15-39 | 6-22 | 21-61 | 37-45 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 11-44 | 11-16 | 22-60 | 27-55 |
| Toronto Raptors | 19-36 | 6-21 | 25-57 | 40-42 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 20-36 | 7-19 | 27-55 | 39-43 |
| Utah Jazz | 26-30 | 5-21 | 31-51 | 47-35 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 21-33 | 11-17 | 32-50 | 38-44 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 24-31 | 12-15 | 36-46 | 39-43 |
| Chicago Bulls | 26-29 | 13-14 | 39-43 | 40-42 |
| Houston Rockets | 24-30 | 17-11 | 41-41 | 35-47 |
| Sacramento Kings | 31-23 | 15-13 | 46-36 | 44-38 |
| Golden State Warriors | 27-26 | 19-10 | 46-36 | 37-45 |
The big winners are two teams that pushed hard to make the postseason (Houston and Golden State) and the Spurs, who were competitive through the end of the regular season. The Raptors and Jazz, meanwhile, each lost a ton of games in the closing weeks of the regular season in attempts to keep their protected first-round picks. (Utah succeeded, Toronto did not.)
That leads us to another proposal from coaches, scouts and executives:
3. Rework (or remove) pick protections
The most flagrant cases of tanking are from teams hoping to keep their lottery draft pick. The Dallas Mavericks tanking their final couple of games in 2023 to keep a top-10 protected pick is the most egregious recent example. (The decision to tank cost the Mavericks $750,000 but netted them starting center Dereck Lively II, who was a key contributor to the team that reached the 2024 Finals.) This season, the 76ers hope to keep their top-6 protected selection for June after injuries derailed their campaign.
Multiple sources told ESPN a simple way to reduce tanking would be removing mid-lottery pick protections. Either have the pick be top-4 protected – meaning the team jumps in the lottery – lottery protected, or unprotected. That tweak would remove the most egregious examples of tanking.
“One of the goals of lottery reform was really to smooth out outcomes within the lottery so that no team would look at it and say there’s a significant benefit to me being the third lottery team as opposed to the fourth, or the eighth lottery team as opposed to the ninth,” Wasch said. "That’s something we had focused heavily on.
“Of course, the pick-protection issue kind of cut the other way on that. If a team has a top-10-protected pick, it actually matters a lot whether they finish with the 10th-worst record or the 11th-worst record. That is a dynamic that we’re seeing.”
4. Have lottery odds determined by how those teams fare against each other
An idea floated by an executive was to have the 14 lottery teams ordered by how they fare against one another during the regular season. Teams have a reason to compete in every game, and especially against these other lottery-bound teams.
This one, though, comes with an obvious problem: The teams on the fringes of the play-in games, and in it, could potentially be pushed to play for a top pick in the draft instead of competing for the playoffs.
5. Enforce the current rules
Some people around the league believe the current system is fine. Bad teams exist, and fighting for lottery positioning is just part of the sport.
But with the onset of teams trying to sink to the bottom of the standings, some sources argued that cutting down on the influx of teams sitting healthy players would fix many of the current complaints, rather than tweaking the system any further. “Let’s start there,” one executive said.
Ultimately, getting a top pick remains the surest path to landing a franchise-changing player. But the NBA has already tried to curtail tanking, from flattening the lottery odds to creating the play-in games to give more teams reason to play through the end of the regular season. “I think there have been a lot of positive trends that we’ve seen,” Wasch said.
But Wasch also indicated that tanking, and ways to address it, could come up with the NBA’s competition committee.
“Coming off this season, it would be reasonable to expect that we would reengage with our competition committee,” Wasch said. “And see if there’s anything they might want to explore to tackle the issue.”
By Tim Bontemps, Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN