By Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Jacob Douglas, Bill Huan, Devon Birdsong | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-03-19 07:52:32
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
马刺队的天赋足以让他们不沦为真正的垫底球队，但伤病却让他们无缘附加赛争夺。
你认为爵士、奇才、黄蜂和鹈鹕这四支球队中，哪支球队最终不会成为联盟战绩倒数前三，从而拥有最高的状元签概率？你又希望这几支球队中，哪支球队最终能获得状元签？
玛丽莲·杜宾斯基(Marilyn Dubinski)： 这四支球队中，鹈鹕队拥有锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)这样一位最有可能带领球队保持略高于其他球队水平的球员，但他仍然会随机缺席比赛（不仅仅是背靠背的比赛，就像他们在圣安东尼奥的比赛所展示的那样），更不用说他们又失去了特雷·墨菲三世(Trey Murphy III)这位赛季报销的球员。如果以过去10场比赛的表现作为指标，爵士队似乎最有可能留在倒数前三名，但这很难说。至于我希望哪支球队获胜，我必须从马刺队的角度来看待这个问题，如果鹈鹕队获胜，对他们造成的伤害最大，因为他们已经证明了健康的锡安能够带领他们进入季后赛。我想说的是，希望库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)去东部，在这两支球队中，我想我会支持奇才队，因为拉梅洛·鲍尔(LaMelo Ball)的某些方面让我感到恼火（问题在我，不在他）。
马克·巴林顿(Mark Barrington)： 奇才队在交易截止日后，虽然没有成为一支优秀的球队，但比之前的表现要好得多。我认为他们可以超越其他球队，成为联盟战绩第四差的球队，而且由于乐透抽签的规则，这样做实际上只会受到很小的惩罚，获得状元签的概率只有12.5%，而倒数前三的球队则为14%。如果锡安在剩下的比赛中大部分都能上场，鹈鹕队可能会破坏这一预测，因为他摧毁对手防守的能力可以帮助他们赢得一些比赛。状元签落入战绩倒数前四的球队手中的概率为54.5%，因此几乎同样有可能的是，他们中没有一支球队会获得状元签，而状元签可能会落入排名第5-14位的幸运彩票得主手中。在所列出的四支球队中，我最希望爵士队获得状元签，因为我想看看威尔·哈迪(Will Hardy)会如何带领一支拥有年轻超级球星的球队。但我并没有排除马刺队偷偷摸摸地抽中大奖的可能性。
雅各布·道格拉斯(Jacob Douglas)： 我会选择战绩最好的鹈鹕队。然而，华盛顿奇才队最近打出了一些精彩的篮球，在过去的10场比赛中赢了6场。这支球队充满了有趣、年轻的天赋。鹈鹕队将在锡安·威廉姆森的杰出表现的带领下，取得一些胜利。如果马刺队没有得到状元签（你仍然可以梦想！），那么华盛顿将是我最喜欢的库珀·弗拉格的归宿。他将为这支年轻的核心提供一个基础性的基石，并最终在约翰·沃尔(John Wall)和布拉德利·比尔(Bradley Beal)离开后为这支球队指明方向。
比尔·黄(Bill Huan)： 肯定是鹈鹕队。他们已经在摆烂大赛中排名“第四”，而且锡安很健康（目前），并且打出了我们从未见过的最高水平。我猜新奥尔良队很有可能让他停赛，但他们仍然拥有其他天赋球员，比如CJ·麦科勒姆(CJ McCollum)。至于我希望哪支球队最终获得状元签，那就是奇才队。他们是这群球队中唯一一支仍然没有真正球星的球队，最需要像库珀·弗拉格这样的天才。
德文·伯德桑(Devon Birdsong)： 我可以告诉你哪支球队不会离开倒数前三，那就是爵士队，他们目前正经历着十连败，并且致力于摆烂，甚至因为让劳里·马尔卡宁(Lauri Markkanen)缺席比赛而被罚款。无论是奇才队还是鹈鹕队能够摆脱困境，这都取决于锡安的健康状况。虽然他的身体似乎很容易受到除食物中毒之外的任何疾病的侵袭，但他合同的结构让我认为他会在本赛季余下的时间里好好表现，以重新获得新奥尔良队的青睐，再次用他的潜力来哄骗球迷和管理层。
在福克斯离开后，你认为马刺队会输掉足够多的比赛，接近倒数前五的战绩吗？还是你认为他们会像现在一样，保持在中游水平，与公牛、开拓者和热火队为伍？
杜宾斯基： 我认为他们将保持在目前的水平，刚好在附加赛之外，但又不在联盟垫底的位置。他们剩下的赛程并不轻松，但他们还有几场胜利可以拿到，从而超过30胜，而且我不认为他们会落后于多伦多、布鲁克林和费城这三支球队，因为这三支球队的失利都比他们多6场。（尤其是76人队，他们有充分的理由继续摆烂，并希望能够保住前六顺位保护的选秀权，而不是将其送给俄克拉荷马雷霆队。）如果让我猜的话，马刺队将排在第7-10位。
巴林顿： 马刺队剩下的赛程中，他们将面对很多季后赛球队，这些球队会为了提高自己的排名而努力赢得比赛，这意味着他们输的比赛会比赢的比赛多得多。他们最大的问题是，他们正在与一些非常擅长输球的球队进行摆烂竞争，而且他们有一个相当不错的失利优势（这并不是领先优势）可以利用。我认为马刺队可以制造一些悬念，甚至可以赶上（落后于？）篮网、76人或猛龙队中的一支或多支球队，但倒数前四（黄蜂、奇才、鹈鹕、爵士）的球队输的比赛实在太多了，马刺队在剩下的比赛中无法赶上。我猜猛龙队会迎来一波连胜，因为他们试图获得一个附加赛席位，最终会比马刺队赢得更多的比赛，而马刺队最终会获得第八好的乐透抽签概率。
道格拉斯： 从数学上来说，这肯定对他们不利。他们落后篮网队6场，排名倒数第五，而且只有16场比赛可以追赶。我猜他们最终会排在第8或第9位，也就是他们目前的位置。如果他们没有在乐透抽签中上升，他们仍然可以在那里得到一名优秀的球员，只不过可能不是他们可以通过前四顺位选秀权获得的潜在球星。
黄： 马刺队可能会处于自己的档次，他们与芝加哥、迈阿密和波特兰等球队有一定的差距，但又没有糟糕到能与多伦多、布鲁克林和费城等球队并列。后三支球队在摆烂大赛中领先圣安东尼奥队5场“领先优势”，在赛季只剩下10多场比赛的情况下，我们不可能赶上他们。与此同时，前三支球队都比马刺队更有天赋，并且很可能会在赛季末赢得更多的比赛。
伯德桑： 我猜猛龙队是马刺队以下唯一一支有能力和动力超过他们的球队。他们正处于附加赛的边缘，而热火队自从吉米·巴特勒(Jimmy Butler)交易后就一直自由落体。一个更好的问题是，马刺队是否会继续比热火队更努力地摆烂，热火队目前只比马刺队领先一场胜利。我不会怀疑狡猾的帕特·莱利(Pat Riley)和他的团队会试图最大限度地利用他们一段时间以来第一个失利赛季的价值。
在西部，一些糟糕的球队正在争夺最后一个附加赛席位。马刺队还有机会吗？如果没有，你希望哪支球队能从独行侠、太阳和开拓者队中脱颖而出？
杜宾斯基： 我认为马刺队没有纪律在没有福克斯和特别是文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)的情况下做到这一点（尽管如果他们保持健康，他们肯定会加入这个行列，因为这个档次的球队都表现失常）。如果他们 真的 想这样做，他们可能会努力争取，但我认为这不是他们的目标。我很佩服独行侠能坚持这么久，但他们只是没有足够的人员来坚持下去。我没有过多关注波特兰队，但 应该 是菲尼克斯队，因为他们的天赋水平很高，他们只需要摆正自己的位置，打出他们应有的水平。
巴林顿： 这让我想起了阿呆与阿瓜中的那个场景，劳埃德邀请玛丽约会。是的，马刺队有可能进入附加赛，尽管可能性很小，但即使他们真的做到了，他们也不会真正从中受益。在现实世界中，他们正在与东部联盟中一支或多支糟糕的非季后赛球队进行比赛，争取输掉更多的比赛。我支持西部出现一次大冷门，开拓者队迎来一波连胜，超越独行侠队（陷入困境）和太阳队（黯然失色），从而获得附加赛的最后一个席位。他们的欣快感持续了一场比赛，因为他们在9/10的比赛中被国王队轻松淘汰。
道格拉斯： 我认为马刺队不想要最后一个附加赛席位，而且我怀疑他们能得到它。尽管他们表现失常，但我还是会选择太阳队。这支球队的天赋太出色了，不应该完全错过季后赛。
黄： 绝对没有。马刺队不可能进入附加赛。句号。而且他们也不应该想要进入。在其他球队中，我真的希望独行侠队和太阳队都能进入，这样他们就可以参加9号对10号的比赛。观看布克、杜兰特和布拉德利“世界上最好的工作”比尔组成的“无法防守”的三人组对抗一支可能被迫弃权的球队，这会是多么有趣的一件事？这场比赛的营销应该包含某些可能不适合电视播放的词语。
伯德桑： 马刺队还有机会吗？我在这里坐了大约10分钟，但我实在想不出比这个问题本身更有趣的妙语了。我绝对支持开拓者队和独行侠队进入。开拓者队是因为这会延续他们管理层决定最糟糕的长期战略的趋势，可以追溯到格雷格·奥登(Greg Oden)和萨姆·鲍伊(Sam Bowie)。（每项运动都需要一个可爱的失败者）至于独行侠队，我只是想能够想象一下，他们的社交媒体经理如果真的进入了，会面临什么样的索菲的选择。当然，我一直很喜欢看到太阳队进不去。旧习惯很难改掉。凯文·杜兰特的交易将会很有趣。
点击查看原文：The Spurs are stuck in NBA lottery limbo
The Spurs are stuck in NBA lottery limbo
The Spurs have too much talent to be a true bottom-dweller but injuries have prevented them from being play-in contenders.
Which of the Jazz, Wizards, Hornets and Pelicans do you think will not end with a bottom-three record in the league and the best odds at the top pick? And which among those teams would you like to see end up with the 1st overall pick?
Marilyn Dubinski: Of the four, the Pelicans are the team with a player who is most likely to keep their heads just above the rest in Zion Williamson, but he still randomly misses games (and not just back-to-backs, as their game in San Antonio showed), not to mention they just lost yet another player for the season in Trey Murphy III. The easier answer seems to be the Jazz are the most likely to stay in the bottom three if the last 10 games are any indication for all four, but it’s impossible to say. As for who I’d want to win of these four, I have to look at it from a Spurs perspective, and it would hurt them the most if the Pelicans won since they have already shown a healthy Zion can lead them to the postseason. I’d say hope Cooper Flagg goes East, and of the two, I guess I’ll root for the Wizards since something about LaMelo Ball annoys me (it’s me, not him).
Mark Barrington: The Wizards came out of the trade deadline, not as a good team, but as a much more competent team than they were before everything shook out. I think they could pass up everyone for the fourth worst in the league, and with the way that the lottery odds are structured, there’s really only a very slight penalty for that, just a 12.5% chance of the first overall pick vs 14% for the bottom three. The Pelicans could ruin that projection if Zion Williamson plays most of the remaining games of the season because they can win some games with him tearing down opposing defenses. The chances that the top pick goes to one of the bottom four teams is 54.5%, so it’s almost as likely that none of them will pick first and the first pick could go to a lucky lottery winner in the 5-14 range. Of the four teams listed, the one I’d like to get the first pick the most would probably be the Jazz, because it’d be nice to see what Will Hardy would do with a young superstar to lead his team. But I’m not counting out the Spurs sneaking in there and drawing the golden ticket.
Jacob Douglas: I’ll go with the team with the best record, the Pelicans. However, the Washington Wizards are playing some good basketball right now, winning 6 of their last 10 games. That team is filled with fun, young talent. The Pels will string together some wins on the back of a Zion Williamson masterclass. If the Spurs don’t get the number one pick (you can still dream!), then Washington would be my favorite Cooper Flagg destination. He’d give that young core a foundational building block and finally give the franchise a direction post-John Wall and Bradley Beal.
Bill Huan: Definitely the Pelicans. They’re already “fourth” in the tank-off, and Zion is healthy (for now) and playing at almost the highest level we’ve ever seen from him. I guess it’s very possible for New Orleans to shut him down, but they still have other talent on the roster, like CJ Mccollum. In terms of who I’d like to see end up with the 1st pick, it’s the Wizards. They’re the only team out of this group that still doesn’t have a bonafide star on the roster and needs a talent like Cooper Flagg the most.
Devon Birdsong: I can tell you who is not leaving the bottom 3, and that’s the Jazz, who are currently on a ten-game losing streak and are dedicated to their tank to the point of being fined for holding players out. Whether it’s the Wizards or the Pelicans who pull themselves out feels dependent on Zion’s health. And while his body seems vulnerable to everything shy of food poisoning, the way his contract is structured makes me think he’ll show out for the rest of the season in an attempt to re-secure the bag with New Orleans, gaslighting the fan base and front office yet again with his potential.
With Fox gone, do you think the Spurs will lose enough to get close to a bottom-five record or do you think they’ll remain where they are now, in the middle of the pack along with the Bulls, Trail Blazers, and Heat?
Dubinski: I think they’ll remain in their current tier of just outside the play-in but not near the bottom of the league. They don’t have the easiest schedule left, but they have a few wins left in them to get above 30 wins, and I don’t see them falling behind all three of Toronto, Brooklyn and Philly, who each have 6 more losses. (The 76ers in particular have all the reason to keep tanking and hope they can keep their top-6 protected pick instead of sending it to OKC.) If I had to guess, the Spurs will land in the 7-10 range.
Barrington: The remainder of the schedule for the Spurs has them playing a lot of teams that are in the playoffs, who will be trying to win games to improve their seeding which means that they are going to lose a lot more games than they win. Their biggest problem is that they’re competing in the tank game with some teams that are extremely good at losing games, and who have a pretty good loss margin (it’s not a lead) to work with. I think the Spurs can make it interesting and maybe even catch (fall behind?) one or more of the Nets, Sixers, or Raptors, but the bottom four (Hornets, Wizards, Pelicans, Jazz) just have too many losses for the Spurs to catch with so few games remaining. My guess is that the Raptors go on a hot streak as they attempt to get a play-in spot and end up with more wins than the Spurs, and the Spurs end up with the 8th-best lottery odds.
Douglas: The math certainly isn’t in their favor. They are 6 games behind the Nets for the 5th worst record and only have 16 more games to catch them. My guess is they wind up somewhere in the 8 or 9 range, where they currently sit. They can still get a quality player there if they don’t move up in the lottery, it just might not be the potential star they could acquire with a top-4 pick.
Huan: The Spurs will likely be in their own tier, where they have some separation with the Chicagos, Miamis, and Portlands of the world, but not bad enough to get into that next group alongside Toronto, Brooklyn, and Philly. The latter three teams all have a 5 game “lead” on San Antonio in the tank-off, and there’s no way we’ll be able to catch them with just over 10 games left in the season. Meanwhile, the former trio all have more talent than the Spurs do and will likely win more games down the stretch.
Birdsong: My guess is that the Raptors are the only team below the Spurs with the talent and motivation to pass them up. They’re right on the edge of the play-in, and the Heat have been in a free-fall since the Jimmy Butler trade. A better question is if the Spurs will continue to out-tank the Heat, who are only one win ahead of the Spurs right now. I wouldn’t put it past the wily Pat Riley and Co. to try and maximize the value of their first lost season in a while.
There is competition for the last play-in spot in the West among some bad teams. Do the Spurs still have a chance? And if they don’t, who do you want to see make it out of the Mavericks, Suns and Trail Blazers?
Dubinski: I don’t think the Spurs have the discipline to make it without Fox and especially Wemby (although had they stayed healthy, they’d definitely be in with all the dysfunction in this tier). If they really wanted to they could probably make a push, but I don’t think that’s the goal. I admire that the Mavs have held on this long, but they just don’t have the personnel to hold on. I haven’t paid enough attention to Portland, but it should be Phoenix based on the talent level, they just have to get their heads out of their you-know-what’s and play like they’re capable of.
Barrington: This makes me think of that scene in Dumb and Dumber where Lloyd asked Mary out on a date. Yeah, there’s a chance that the Spurs could make the play-in, however unlikely, but even if they could somehow pull it off, they wouldn’t really benefit from it. In the real world, they’re engaged in a battle to lose more games than one or more of the bad non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. I’m pulling for a big upset in the West, where the Trail Blazers go on a hot streak and pass both the Mavs (in a tailspin) and Suns (eclipsed) to claim the last spot in the Play-in Tournament. Their euphoria lasts one game as they’re easily eliminated by the Kings in the 9/10 game.
Douglas: I don’t think the Spurs want the last play-in spot, and I doubt they get it. Despite their dysfunction, I’ll go with the Suns. That team is far too talented to miss the playoffs entirely.
Huan: NO. WAY. JOSE. The Spurs are NOT making the play-in. PERIOD. And they shouldn’t want to, either. Out of the other teams, I honestly want both the Mavs and Suns to make it so that they can play in the 9 vs 10 game. How funny would it be to watch the “unguardable” trio of Booker, KD, and Bradley “best job in the world” Beal go up against a team that might be forced to forfeit? The marketing for that game should include certain words that may not be the most appropriate for TV.
Birdsong: Do the Spurs still have a chance? I sat here for about 10 minutes, but I honestly can’t come up with a snappy retort that’s funnier than the question itself. I am absolutely rooting for the Trailblazers and the Mavericks to make it though. The Blazers, because it would continue the trend of their front office deciding on the worst long-term strategies, going all the way back to Greg Oden and Sam Bowie. (Every sport needs a lovable loser) As for the Mavericks, I just want to be able to imagine the Sophie’s Choice that their social media manager will end up facing should they make it. And of course, I always love seeing the Suns not make it. Old habits die hard. That Kevin Durant trade is going to be interesting.
By Marilyn Dubinski, Mark Barrington, Jacob Douglas, Bill Huan, Devon Birdsong, via Pounding The Rock