By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, 2025-03-17 20:18:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
NBA常规赛还剩不到一个月的时间，在伤病和重磅交易带来一系列变动后，西部联盟的排名争夺战已经初见端倪。一直以来，俄克拉荷马城雷霆凭借其统治级的表现，将自己与其他球队区分开来。
领先并列第二的三支球队多达13个胜场，雷霆最早可能在本周就锁定西部第一的种子席位以及整个西部季后赛的主场优势。丹佛掘金、孟菲斯灰熊和休斯顿火箭在积分榜上并列，洛杉矶湖人仅落后一个胜场。其中一支球队将不得不以第五种子的身份在客场开始季后赛之旅。
最后一个值得关注的关键争夺战是第六种子的位置，这意味着可以避免附加赛。金州勇士和明尼苏达森林狼一直在胜场上紧咬不放，但除非他们能赶上湖人，否则其中一支球队将不得不通过附加赛才能进入季后赛。
在西部附加赛的末端，剩下的只有遗憾，菲尼克斯太阳试图通过超越伤病缠身的达拉斯独行侠来挽救季后赛的希望。
让我们来分析一下这些球队中哪支球队最有机会在季后赛中走得更远，以及哪支球队在积分榜上的崛起是货真价实的。继一个月前全明星周末后的上次分析之后，我们将再次将西部球队划分为不同的战力等级。
跳转至相应战力等级：
实力明显的第一梯队
准备好冲击更深轮次（如果保持健康）
附加赛席位实至名归
为第十名展开的两队之争
展望乐透抽签
第一梯队：实力明显的第一梯队
俄克拉荷马城雷霆
目前战绩： 56胜12负（西部第一）
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 12胜2负
战力等级变化：
ESPN的扎克·克拉姆(Zach Kram)最近列出了对手应该害怕在季后赛中面对雷霆的22个理由。正如我在BlueSky上所说，“恐惧”往往是一个滞后指标，而不是对季后赛的预测。俄克拉荷马城继续证明其与NBA最强球队对抗的实力，上周与掘金战成平手，之后在TD花园击败了卫冕冠军波士顿凯尔特人。
雷霆在波士顿获胜的最令人鼓舞的迹象也许是切特·霍姆格伦(Chet Holmgren)在贾伦·威廉姆斯(Jalen Williams)因臀部拉伤缺阵时的表现。霍姆格伦填补了威廉姆斯作为球队第二得分手的角色，得到23分（这是他自臀部骨折复出以来的最高分）和15个篮板。
第二梯队：满员时最具威胁的竞争者
丹佛掘金
目前战绩： 43胜25负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 7胜6负
战力等级变化：
“满员”可能不是对掘金的正确描述，因为本赛季当他们的首发阵容出战时，他们的战绩为11胜9负，而在三届MVP尼古拉·约基奇(Nikola Jokic)出战但另一位首发缺阵的另外42场比赛中，他们的战绩为30胜12负。
正如你可能猜到的那样，这些数据中存在一些投篮运气方面的因素。在首发阵容出战的比赛中，丹佛的三分球命中率为36%，而在约基奇首发的其他所有比赛中，他们的三分球命中率为39.5%。考虑到有一位首发缺阵通常意味着更多的拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克(Russell Westbrook)，他是一位三分球命中率为34%的球员，这肯定是一种随机噪音。威斯布鲁克作为首发球员的表现明显更有效率，在这些比赛中他的真实命中率达到了精英级别的.603，而在替补出场时，当他与约基奇的配合较少时，他的真实命中率则为.480。
与此同时，精英级别的防守球队在利用威斯布鲁克不稳定的投篮方面表现得更加有效。面对排名前10的防守球队时，他每36分钟的比赛得分为11.6，而面对所有其他球队时，这一数字为15.8。他对阵前10防守球队时每36分钟的三分球出手次数也更高（5.7次，包括在两次输给凯尔特人的比赛中合计17次），而面对联盟其他球队时，这一数字为4.3次。尽管如此，掘金在西部排名第二的位置上占据优势，并且拥有常规赛表现和季后赛经验的最佳组合。他们是俄克拉荷马城之外最有可能进入西部决赛的球队。
金州勇士
目前战绩： 39胜28负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 11胜1负
战力等级变化：
本赛季勇士的战力等级经历了一段旅程。在10胜2负的开局中，他们与俄克拉荷马城一同进入第一梯队，然后在1月和2月跌至第三梯队。现在，随着勇士在吉米·巴特勒三世(Jimmy Butler III)出战的比赛中取得15胜1负的战绩，我将他们排在了积分榜上领先于他们的几支球队之上。
为什么这段时间的表现可能比勇士的开局更具可持续性？简单的答案是，在增加了巴特勒之后，他们更有天赋。更全面的答案是，他们的成功似乎不那么侥幸。
当金州以10胜2负开局时，球队的成功主要依赖于两端的三分球投篮。在那段时间里，他们的三分球命中率为39%，仅次于克利夫兰骑士队，而对手的三分球命中率仅为30.5%——远远低于联盟的最低水平。但在交易截止日期之后，对手在三分线外的命中率超过了勇士。
自从增加巴特勒以来，正如你所期望的那样，金州的三分球命中率更高，因为史蒂芬·库里(Stephen Curry)是有史以来NBA最伟大的射手，而巴迪·希尔德(Buddy Hield)也是历史上顶级的射手。但是，勇士在巴特勒的帮助下将防守效率提升到联盟第三，这与对手的失误关系不大。金州在迫使对手失误方面领先联盟，这在很大程度上要归功于巴特勒的破坏性防守。
我们仍然需要看看勇士如何与西部最好的球队对抗。周一与掘金的比赛将是自增加巴特勒以来他们与西部前六球队的第二场比赛。但是，考虑到金州拥有NBA季后赛表现最佳的三名球员，分别是巴特勒、库里和德雷蒙德·格林(Draymond Green)，我相信勇士能够保持这种状态，即使面对更强大的竞争对手。
洛杉矶湖人
目前战绩： 41胜25负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 9胜5负
战力等级变化：
除了前场首发贾克森·海斯(Jaxson Hayes)和八村塁(Rui Hachimura)的伤病之外，勒布朗·詹姆斯(LeBron James)的腹股沟拉伤也中断了湖人的八连胜。好消息是，这些胜利给了湖人一些喘息的机会，让他们留在西部前五。坏消息是在输给布鲁克林篮网之后，我们不能假设湖人在如此缺兵少将的情况下会赢得任何比赛，这使得海斯周日重返阵容变得非常重要。
即使在最佳状态下，湖人也没有像最近的金州那样具有统治力。湖人的大部分胜利都来自主场个位数的优势，尽管他们在丹佛的胜利表明，卢卡·东契奇(Luka Doncic)在从腿筋拉伤中恢复过来后仍然可以达到更高的水平。这种潜力使他们进入了这个战力等级。
……以及其他有实力进入西部决赛的球队
休斯顿火箭
目前战绩： 43胜25负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 9胜4负
战力等级变化：
弗雷德·范弗利特(Fred VanVleet)从两次脚踝受伤中复出对火箭来说是一个完美的时机，他们在没有他的情况下取得了10胜9负的战绩，尽管他们面对的对手相对较弱。火箭很难进入西部第二，但由于火箭剩余的赛程比孟菲斯轻松得多，因此他们很有可能在第一轮获得主场优势。根据BPI的数据，孟菲斯的赛程是联盟中最难的。
当我们展望季后赛时，有理由对火箭的机会表示怀疑。在该队典型的首发球员中，只有范弗利特拥有季后赛经验。火箭的半场进攻对于一支季后赛球队来说也异常薄弱。
根据Cleaning the Glass的数据，在半场进攻的第一次进攻中，休斯顿平均每次进攻仅得到0.92分，在联盟中排名第26位。没有其他胜率高于.500的球队在这项指标中排在后10名，自2021-22赛季以来，没有半场进攻排在后五名的球队进入季后赛，当时多伦多猛龙队（第26名）和新奥尔良鹈鹕队（第27名）在第一轮失利。
孟菲斯灰熊
目前战绩： 43胜25负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 7胜7负
战力等级变化：
灰熊利用他们的深度在全明星贾伦·杰克逊(Jaren Jackson Jr.)因腹股沟拉伤缺席的五场比赛中取得了4胜1负的战绩。这使得孟菲斯能够继续争夺西部第二的位置，这将使灰熊在西部决赛中获得主场优势。
除了强大的战绩之外，孟菲斯还拥有西部第二好的净胜分，场均+5.9分——在NBA排名第四。我不知道在季后赛中反复接触灰熊非正统的进攻方式是否会对对手有利，尽管在常规赛中情况并非如此。在孟菲斯多次交手的对手中，灰熊在第一次交手中取得16胜9负的战绩（胜率.640），在第二次交手中取得14胜11负的战绩（胜率.560）——但第二次交手的净胜分更高。
明尼苏达森林狼
目前战绩： 40胜29负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 9胜4负
战力等级变化：
尽管被湖人和勇士的光芒所掩盖，但森林狼一直是3月份NBA最火爆的球队，取得了7胜0负的战绩，净胜分高达联盟最高的+14.9分。明尼苏达面对的赛程非常轻松——在那段时间里只有一个胜率超过.500的对手——并且受益于两端不可持续的三分球命中率，但这是森林狼最终设想的那支拥有朱利叶斯·兰德尔(Julius Randle)作为组织者和唐特·迪文森佐(Donte DiVincenzo)拥有火热三分手感的球队。
挑战在于积分榜。明尼苏达在3月份追赶了金州半个胜场，两支球队仍然落后西部集团2.5个胜场。尽管剩余赛程是西部最轻松的，但森林狼仍然最有可能进入附加赛。
作为七号种子与掘金进行首轮重赛对明尼苏达来说可能不是那么糟糕，他们以总共52分的优势赢得了所有三场正面交锋。（分区对手将于4月1日进行第四次也是最后一次交锋。）森林狼也与雷霆平分秋色。但是，从附加赛到西部决赛的道路虽然可行，但却很漫长。
第三梯队：深陷附加赛？
洛杉矶快船
目前战绩： 38胜30负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 7胜7负
战力等级变化：
在进入2月份时还在争夺首轮主场优势的快船，尽管科怀·伦纳德(Kawhi Leonard)在这18场比赛中的13场比赛中都能出战，但此后还是取得了9胜10负的战绩。伦纳德在膝盖手术后回归后的表现并没有达到全明星级别，他的真实命中率降至职业生涯最低的.545，同时保持了他自2020-21赛季以来的最高使用率（占快船进攻的28%）。
进入季后赛将超出人们对快船的低预期，并且在3月9日关键的加时赛中击败萨克拉门托国王后，他们将牢牢占据附加赛第八号种子的位置。这确保了快船在交手记录中占据优势。但是对于快船来说，攀升到第八名以上似乎不太可能，在BPI模拟中，他们进入附加赛的可能性接近90%。
萨克拉门托国王
目前战绩： 33胜33负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 5胜6负
战力等级变化：
国王落后西部第六5.5个胜场，领先第11名3个胜场，这使得他们成为最有可能出现在附加赛中的球队——根据BPI的模拟，这一可能性为97%。由于多曼塔斯·萨博尼斯(Domantas Sabonis)因腿筋拉伤而缺席，国王面临着艰难的赛程，在七场比赛中取得了2胜5负的战绩，其中四场失利都是对阵胜率高于.500的对手。这种情况不会有太大改善。BPI认为国王剩余赛程是联盟第六难的。
第四梯队：为最后一个附加赛名额而战
达拉斯独行侠
目前战绩： 33胜36负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 3胜10负
战力等级变化：
在过去的八场比赛中输掉了七场比赛后，独行侠紧紧抓住附加赛的第10个也是最后一个名额。他们领先太阳队1.5个胜场，后者在3月7日在达拉斯获胜，从而赢得了赛季系列赛和交手记录优势。
尽管独行侠可能会从伤病中恢复一些急需的深度，因为他们的双向球员的比赛资格即将用完，但最重要的回归是安东尼·戴维斯(Anthony Davis)。ESPN的蒂姆·麦克马洪(Tim MacMahon)周一报道称，戴维斯将加入G联赛的德克萨斯传奇队进行训练，因为他正在从达拉斯首秀中遭受的内收肌拉伤中恢复。在没有凯里·欧文(Kyrie Irving)的情况下，独行侠不再是他们曾经展现出的具有威胁性的附加赛对手，但健康的戴维斯至少会给他们一个竞争的机会。
菲尼克斯太阳
目前战绩： 31胜37负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 5胜9负
战力等级变化：
对于太阳来说，以低于.500的战绩成为附加赛中的最后一支球队仍然是一个巨大的失望，但它胜过完全错过附加赛，同时将由此产生的乐透签送给休斯顿。太阳在3月份的表现更具竞争力，击败了快船和独行侠，并在丹佛通过加时赛失利，并在孟菲斯以两分之差失利。
挑战在于太阳将从周五开始面对一场严峻的考验，连续10场比赛对阵各自联盟前六名的球队。在那之前，菲尼克斯不能避免任何失误，并且可能需要制造一些冷门才能赶上达拉斯。BPI的预测仍然显示独行侠更有可能进入附加赛。
第五梯队：展望乐透抽签
新奥尔良鹈鹕
目前战绩： 18胜50负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 5胜8负
战力等级变化：
就像去年这个时候的孟菲斯一样，鹈鹕正在评估从本赛季的最后几个月获得什么，因为他们正在完成赛季。灰熊找到了GG·杰克逊(GG Jackson)、小斯科蒂·皮蓬(Scotty Pippen Jr.)和文斯·威廉姆斯(Vince Williams Jr.)等贡献者——现在对他们的深度至关重要。
对于新奥尔良来说，锡安·威廉姆森(Zion Williamson)的出色表现是最大的积极因素。自从全明星周末以来，威廉姆森的投篮命中率为59%，并且场均助攻达到职业生涯最高的5.3次，如果他能在2025-26赛季保持健康，这将是一个积极的指标。新秀卡洛·马特科维奇(Karlo Matkovic)是一位2023年第二轮选秀，看起来也越来越像一名轮换球员。自从全明星周末以来，马特科维奇场均得到10.1分和6.3个篮板，投篮命中率为58%——高于全明星周末之前有限的上场时间里的49%。
波特兰开拓者
目前战绩： 29胜39负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 6胜7负
战力等级变化：
面对顶级球队的五连败几乎结束了波特兰进入附加赛的希望。在BPI模拟中，开拓者进入附加赛的可能性仅为6%。在某个时候，波特兰可能会将注意力转移到乐透抽签的位置上。开拓者无法赶上选秀排名中领先他们的七支球队中的任何一支，这些球队的胜场都至少少五场，但如果他们能够阻止芝加哥公牛队、迈阿密热火队和圣安东尼奥马刺队——所有这些球队的胜场都在27到29场之间，那么他们将有助于提高他们赢得乐透的机会。
圣安东尼奥马刺
目前战绩： 28胜38负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 5胜9负
战力等级变化：
福克斯(De’Aaron Fox)决定接受赛季末手术来修复左手小指的肌腱损伤，这使得马刺将注意力转移到乐透抽签及更远的地方。自从维克托·文班亚马(Victor Wembanyama)的赛季因深静脉血栓而结束后，圣安东尼奥取得了4胜8负的战绩，他们并没有处于争夺附加赛的位置。最好让福克斯恢复健康，以便在更有希望的2025-26赛季中有所作为。
犹他爵士
目前战绩： 15胜53负
自2月17日评估以来战绩： 2胜12负
战力等级变化：
随着华盛顿奇才队在过去的11场比赛中取得5胜6负的战绩，爵士队在争夺NBA最差战绩的比赛中只多赢了一场——以及在乐透抽签中的杆位。犹他几乎肯定会获得头号签的最大几率（并有机会选中杜克大学的库珀·弗拉格(Cooper Flagg)），但是落后于奇才队将确保爵士队不低于第五顺位，这将是他们自2014年以第五顺位选中但丁·埃克萨姆(Dante Exum)以来的最高顺位。
点击查看原文：NBA West tiers - Lakers, Nuggets, Warriors battle behind OKC
NBA West tiers - Lakers, Nuggets, Warriors battle behind OKC
With less than a month left in the NBA regular season, the battle for seeding in the Western Conference has taken shape after a number of twists and turns created by injuries and blockbuster trades. All along, the Oklahoma City Thunder have separated themselves from the pack through their dominant play.
With a 13-game cushion on three teams tied for second, the Thunder could clinch the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the West playoffs as soon as this week. The Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets are all even in the standings with the Los Angeles Lakers just a game back. One of those teams will have to start the playoffs on the road as the No. 5 seed.
The last key race to watch is for the No. 6 seed, which means avoiding the play-in tournament. The Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves have been matching each other win for win, but unless they can catch the Lakers, one will have to reach the playoffs through the play-in.
At the bottom of the West play-in race, there’s nothing but sadness, as the Phoenix Suns try to salvage a postseason bid by passing the injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks.
Let’s break down which of these teams has the best chance to go on a long playoff run and which team surging in the standings is for real. We’ll divide the West into tiers once again, after our last breakdown came a month ago, following the All-Star break.
Jump to a tier:\
The clear-cut favorite\
Ready for a deep run (if healthy)\
Play-in feels about right\
A two-team battle for No. 10\
Lottery lookahead
Tier 1: The clear-cut favorite
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current record: 56-12 (first in the West)\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 12-2\
Tier change:
ESPN’s Zach Kram recently laid out 22 reasons opponents should be scared of facing the Thunder in the playoffs. As I’ve said on BlueSky, “fear” tends to be a lagging indicator, not something that’s predictive for the playoffs. Oklahoma City continues to prove its mettle against the NBA’s best, splitting a pair of games against the Nuggets last week before beating the defending champion Boston Celtics at the TD Garden.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign from the Thunder’s win in Boston was Chet Holmgren’s performance with Jalen Williams sidelined by a hip strain. Holmgren filled Williams’ role as second scorer, putting up 23 points – his most since returning from a hip fracture – and 15 rebounds.
Tier 2: The most dangerous contenders at full strength
Denver Nuggets
Current record: 43-25\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 7-6\
Tier change:
“At full strength” might not be the right description for the Nuggets, who are now 11-9 this season when their opening night starting lineup has started the game and 30-12 in the other 42 games when three-time MVP Nikola Jokic was in, but another opening night starter was out.
As you might guess, there’s more than a little shooting luck involved in those splits. Denver has made 36% of its 3s in games started by its opening night five and 39.5% in all other games Jokic has started. Considering that having a starter out typically means more of Russell Westbrook, a 34% 3-point shooter, that’s surely random noise. Westbrook has been dramatically more effective as a starter, posting an elite .603 true shooting percentage in those games as compared to .480 coming off the bench, when he tends to play less with Jokic.
At the same time, elite defenses have been more effective at exploiting Westbrook’s iffy shooting. Against top-10 defenses, he’s posting an 11.6 game score per 36 minutes, compared to 15.8 against all other teams. His 3-point attempts per 36 minutes are also higher against top-10 defenses (5.7, including 17 combined in two losses to the Celtics) compared to the rest of the league (4.3). Still, the Nuggets are well-positioned to finish second in the West and have the best combination of regular-season performance and playoff experience. They’re the most likely team outside of Oklahoma City to reach the conference finals.
Golden State Warriors
Current record: 39-28\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 11-1\
Tier change:
It has been a journey through the tiers for the Warriors this season. They debuted alongside Oklahoma City in the top tier in the midst of a 10-2 start, then dropped to the third tier in January and February. Now, with Golden State having gone 15-1 in games Jimmy Butler III has played, I’ve got them above several teams ahead of them in the standings.
Why might this stretch be more sustainable than the Warriors’ start? The short answer is they’re more talented after adding Butler. The long answer is their success appears less fluky.
When Golden State started 10-2, the team’s success was primarily on 3-point shooting on both ends. It hit 39% of its 3s in that span, second to the Cleveland Cavaliers, while opponents hit just 30.5% – far and away the league’s lowest mark. But in the games that followed through the trade deadline, opponents outshot the Warriors from beyond the arc.
Since adding Butler, Golden State has shot better from 3, as you’d expect, given Stephen Curry is the NBA’s greatest shooter of all time and Buddy Hield is also historically elite. But the Warriors’ improvement to third in defensive rating with Butler has had little to do with opponent misses. Golden State leads the league in forcing turnovers thanks in large part to Butler’s disruptive defense.
We still need to see how the Warriors match up with the West’s best teams. Monday’s meeting with the Nuggets will be just their second game against a team in the conference’s top six since adding Butler. But given Golden State has three of the NBA’s top playoff overperformers in Butler, Curry and Draymond Green, I’m giving the Warriors the benefit of the doubt they can keep it up against stiffer competition.
Los Angeles Lakers
Current record: 41-25\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 9-5\
Tier change:
In addition to injuries to frontcourt starters Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura, James’ groin strain derailed the Lakers’ eight-game winning streak. The good news is banking those wins gave the Lakers some breathing room to stay in the West’s top five. The bad news is after losing at Brooklyn, we can’t assume the Lakers will win any game while so short-handed, which made Hayes’ return to the lineup Sunday important.
Even at their best, the Lakers weren’t as dominant as Golden State has been recently. Most of the Lakers’ wins came by single-digits at home, though their win at Denver was a declaration of intent that Luka Doncic can still reach another gear coming back from his hamstring strain. That potential puts them in this tier.
… and the other conference finals contenders
Houston Rockets
Current record: 43-25\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 9-4\
Tier change:
Fred VanVleet’s return from two ankle injuries came at a perfect time for the Rockets, who went 10-9 without him despite facing relatively easy opponents. Houston will be hard-pressed to reach second in the West but is well-positioned for home-court advantage in the first round because the Rockets’ remaining schedule is much easier than Memphis’ slate, which, according to BPI, is the league’s hardest.
As we look toward the playoffs, there are reasons for skepticism about Houston’s chances. Of the team’s typical starters, only VanVleet has playoff experience. The Rockets are also unusually weak for a playoff team in half-court offense.
On the first play of a half-court possession, Houston averages just .92 points per play, which is 26th in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass. No other above-.500 team is in the bottom 10 in this category and no bottom-five half-court offense has made the playoffs since 2021-22, when the Toronto Raptors (26th) and New Orleans Pelicans (27th) lost in the first round.
Memphis Grizzlies
Current record: 43-25\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 7-7\
Tier change:
The Grizzlies used their depth to go 4-1 in the five games All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. missed because of a groin strain. That has kept Memphis in position to battle for second in the West, which would give the Grizzlies home-court advantage through the conference finals.
In addition to a strong record, Memphis has easily the second-best differential in the West at plus-5.9 PPG – fourth-best in the NBA. I wonder whether repeated exposure to the Grizzlies’ unorthodox offense might benefit opponents in the playoffs, although it hasn’t played out that way during the regular season. Among opponents Memphis has played multiple times, the Grizzlies are 16-9 (.640) in the first matchup and 14-11 (.560) in the second – but with a better point differential in the second games.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Current record: 40-29\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 9-4\
Tier change:
Although it has been overshadowed by the Lakers and Warriors, the Timberwolves have been the NBA’s hottest team in March, going 7-0 with a league-high plus-14.9 differential. Minnesota has faced a remarkably easy schedule – just one above-.500 opponent in that span – and benefited from unsustainable 3-point shooting at both ends, but this is finally the team the Timberwolves envisioned with Julius Randle serving as a playmaker and Donte DiVincenzo hot from 3-point range.
The challenge is the standings. Minnesota has made up a half-game on Golden State in March and the two teams remain 2½ games back of the West pack. Despite the easiest remaining schedule in the West, the Timberwolves are the most likely of these teams to land in the play-in.
A first-round rematch against Denver as the No. 7 seed might not be so bad for Minnesota, which has won all three head-to-head matchups by a combined 52 points. (The division rivals meet a fourth and final time April 1.) The Timberwolves also split with the Thunder. But the path from the play-in to the conference finals, while doable, is long.
Tier 3: Stuck in the play-in?
LA Clippers
Current record: 38-30\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 7-7\
Tier change:
Within striking distance of home-court advantage in the first round entering February, the Clippers have gone 9-10 since despite having Kawhi Leonard available for 13 of those 18 games. Leonard hasn’t played at an All-Star level coming back from knee surgery, posting a career-low .545 true shooting percentage while maintaining his highest usage rate (28% of the Clippers’ plays) since 2020-21.
Making the playoffs would exceed the low expectations for the Clippers, and they’ll be in solid position to advance as the likely No. 8 seed in the play-in after beating the Sacramento Kings in a crucial overtime showdown March 9. That assured the Clippers the head-to-head tiebreaker. But climbing above eighth looks unlikely for the Clippers, who make the play-in in nearly 90% of BPI simulations.
Sacramento Kings
Current record: 33-33\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 5-6\
Tier change:
The Kings are 5½ games out of sixth in the West and three games up on 11th, making them the most likely team to appear in the play-in – 97% of simulations, per BPI. Sacramento has faced a difficult schedule with Domantas Sabonis sidelined because of a hamstring strain, going 2-5 with four of the five losses to above-.500 opponents. That won’t lighten up much. BPI rates the Kings’ remaining schedule the league’s sixth hardest.
Tier 4: Battling for the last play-in spot
Dallas Mavericks
Current record: 33-36\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 3-10\
Tier change:
Having lost seven of their past eight games, the Mavericks are hanging on to the 10th and final spot in the play-in tournament. They are 1½ games ahead of the Suns, who won March 7 in Dallas to claim the season series and head-to-head tiebreaker.
Though the Mavericks might get back some much-needed depth from injury as their two-way players run low on game eligibility, the most important return is Anthony Davis. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon reported Monday that Davis will join the G League’s Texas Legends for practice as he rehabs from an adductor strain suffered in his Dallas debut. Without Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks are no longer the threatening play-in opponent they once appeared, but a healthy Davis would at least give them a chance to compete.
Phoenix Suns
Current record: 31-37\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 5-9\
Tier change:
Being the last team in the play-in with a below-.500 record would still represent a tremendous disappointment for the Suns, but it beats missing the play-in entirely while sending the resulting lottery pick to Houston. Phoenix has been more competitive in March, beating the Clippers and Mavericks and losing in overtime at Denver and by two at Memphis.
The challenge is the Suns play a gauntlet starting Friday, with 10 consecutive games against teams in the top six of their respective conferences. Phoenix can’t avoid any missteps before then and may have to come up with a few upsets to catch Dallas. BPI projections still show the Mavericks slightly more likely to reach the play-in.
Tier 5: Looking to the lottery
New Orleans Pelicans
Current record: 18-50\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 5-8\
Tier change:
Like Memphis this time last year, the Pelicans are evaluating what to take from the final months of the season as they play out the string. The Grizzlies found contributors GG Jackson, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Vince Williams Jr. – now important to their depth.
For New Orleans, Zion Williamson’s strong play is the biggest positive. Williamson is shooting 59% since the All-Star break and averaging a career-high 5.3 assists, positive indicators if he can stay healthy for 2025-26. Rookie Karlo Matkovic, a 2023 second-round pick, also looks increasingly like a rotation player. Matkovic is averaging 10.1 points and 6.3 rebounds since the break, shooting 58% from the field – up from 49% in limited minutes before the break.
Portland Trail Blazers
Current record: 29-39\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 6-7\
Tier change:
A five-game losing streak against top competition has all but ended Portland’s play-in hopes. The Blazers reach the play-in just 6% of BPI simulations. At some point, Portland might change its focus to lottery positioning. The Blazers can’t catch any of the seven teams ahead of them in the draft standings, all with at least five fewer wins, but would help their chances at winning the lottery by holding off the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs – all with between 27 and 29 wins.
San Antonio Spurs
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 28-38\
Current record: 5-9\
Tier change:
De’Aaron Fox’s decision to undergo season-ending surgery to repair tendon damage in his left pinkie moves the Spurs’ focus to the lottery and beyond. At 4-8 since Victor Wembanyama’s campaign was ended because of deep vein thrombosis, San Antonio wasn’t in position to push for the play-in. Better to get Fox healthy for a more promising 2025-26 campaign.
Utah Jazz
Current record: 15-53\
Record since Feb. 17 check-in: 2-12\
Tier change:
With the Washington Wizards going 5-6 in their past 11 games, the Jazz have only one more win in the race for the NBA’s worst record – and pole position in the lottery. Utah is all but sure to have the maximum odds at the No. 1 pick (and a chance to take Duke’s Cooper Flagg) but dipping behind the Wizards would assure the Jazz no worse than the fifth selection, which would be their highest since taking Dante Exum No. 5 in 2014.
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN, via ESPN