By Bill Huan | Pounding The Rock (PtR), 2025-03-17 21:00:00
由生成式人工智能翻译，译文内容可能不准确或不完整，以原文为准。
是时候分析雷霆的双塔阵容和森林狼近期的强势表现了。
雷霆队在赛季的大部分时间里都缺少了他们可能仅次于头号球星的球员，但仍然有望取得67场胜利。
但是，嘿，没人应该惧怕他们，因为他们还没赢下任何东西，而且赛后采访中的嬉戏打闹“令人担忧”。
抛开与德雷蒙德（Draymond）的心理辅导不谈，如果认为雷霆不是西部最有希望夺冠的球队，那就太天真了。没错，他们之前从未以这套阵容打进过总决赛，但种种迹象表明，这是一支具有历史级别实力的球队，而且只会变得更好。
因此，现在是时候在讨论西部次级竞争者明尼苏达森林狼之前，先分析雷霆的双塔阵容了。
双塔阵容回归！
萨姆·普雷斯蒂（Sam Presti）是个巫师。
不知何故，即使在上赛季高居西部榜首，并将雷霆打造成NBA历史上选秀权储备最丰富的球队之后，他仍然成功签下了休赛期最佳引援以赛亚·哈尔滕施泰因（Isaiah Hartenstein）。
而且，因为这是雷霆队，iHart和切特（Chet）之间的配合非常流畅。在防守端，原则非常简单：让切特成为游动者，并在需要时防守外线，而哈尔滕施泰因则负责对方的中锋，并充当主要的护筐者。这并不是一个新概念，但由于越来越多技术精湛的大个子统治联盟，这种情况最近变得越来越普遍，尤其是对抗尼古拉·约基奇（Nikola Jokic）时。
上周雷霆与掘金的系列赛中就使用了这种策略。在下面的片段中，约基奇在禁区内单打哈尔滕施泰因，而所有其他球员都驻扎在弱侧。即便如此，切特始终关注着约基奇，扮演着游动者的角色，并且放掉了非射手阿隆·戈登（Aaron Gordon）。一旦约基奇绕过哈尔滕施泰因，切特就会立即进行干扰，导致约基奇投丢了一个原本很容易的球，但戈登补篮得手。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 15, 2025
在双塔阵容下，雷霆将对手在篮筐四英尺内的命中率限制在62%，在联盟所有阵容中排名第90位，这并不令人意外。但令人惊讶的是，他们的防守效率为114.3，这将排在联盟第14位，与他们整体历史级别的107.4相去甚远。
部分原因是糟糕的投篮运气，因为对手的三分球命中率高达38.6%（防守端排名第13位）。这在很大程度上超出了雷霆的控制范围，应该会回落，但他们可以控制的是三分球的让出数量。令人担忧的是，对手针对雷霆的投篮中有43.7%来自三分线外（排名第4位），15.2%来自底角（排名第0位）。
换句话说，在两名大个子同时上场的情况下，雷霆在限制对手三分球出手次数方面，尤其是来自球场上最危险的位置的出手次数方面，是联盟中最差的防守球队之一。即便如此，即使雷霆没有派出他们的两名大个子，他们仍然让出了大量的三分球机会。总的来说，雷霆仍然让对手40.7%的投篮来自三分线外（排名第20位），12.2%来自底角（排名第9位），因此有更大的样本表明，即使采用这种非传统的风格，他们仍然是一支具有历史级别防守的球队。
此外，雷霆可以根据他们的对手来调整他们的阵容，而这种多功能性正是让这支雷霆队如此可怕的原因。他们可以派出双塔来对抗像丹佛、明尼苏达这样的球队，以及潜在的与克利夫兰/波士顿的总决赛对决，如果这不起作用，雷霆可以退回到只派一名大个子上场，然后恢复到检查笔记历史级别的防守数据。最后，一旦雷霆的大个子阵容一起上场的时间更多，并且对手的投篮命中率下降，他们的防守自然会得到改善，所以向任何认为他们发现了雷霆坚不可摧的装甲上的弱点的人道歉。
更令人鼓舞的是，雷霆在双塔阵容下的进攻效率高达127.2（排名第99位），这意味着即使防守端会继续改善，他们的净效率仍然高达+12.9。
雷霆进攻的成功取决于他们围绕着技术精湛的大个子哈尔滕施泰因打4-out战术的能力，哈尔滕施泰因能够控球和传球。尤其是切特，是解锁这个阵容的关键。他35.1%的三分球命中率绝不是精英级别，但它迫使对方尊重他的外线投篮威胁。他独特的身材和敏捷性相结合，使他能够在较小的后卫头上投篮，或者突破较慢的大个子，这为哈尔滕施泰因的发挥创造了更多空间。
在下面的第一个片段中，贾马尔·穆雷（Jamal Murray）在转换进攻中错位防守，迫使他防守切特。后者的投篮威胁迫使穆雷上当受骗，一旦切特突破穆雷，那就是一次轻松的空中接力，哈尔滕施泰因在二打一的情况下轻松面对约基奇。在那之后，切特和哈尔滕施泰因即兴地配合了一个二人战术，迫使MPJ换防到更大的哈尔滕施泰因身上，而这种错位是由于约基奇因切特的牵制而被拉到外线而造成的。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 16, 2025
这两名大个子都足够熟练，可以打挡拆战术。在他们最近与波士顿的对决中，当两人在侧翼进行配合时，卢克·科内特（Luke Kornet）落后哈尔滕施泰因一步，导致后者轻松得分。任何让iHart在禁区内获得良好视野的战术都是高效的投篮，因为他在近中距离（篮筐4-14英尺之间）的命中率为51%（排名第81位），在篮筐4英尺内的命中率为71%（排名第67位）。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 16, 2025
令人印象深刻的是，雷霆的双塔进攻在很大程度上是可持续的。他们的三分球命中率仅为36.1%（排名第48位），同时只有33.8%的投篮来自三分线外（排名第10位），唯一可能出现一些下滑的区域是中距离，因为他们在这个区域的命中率高达60.2%（排名第100位）。即便如此，他们仍然是联盟中最好的中距离球队之一，因此即使他们回落到平时的水平，雷霆仍然能够保持120以上的进攻效率。
简而言之，可能联盟中最好的球队只会变得更好，因为他们的双塔继续建立化学反应。西部的其他球队仍然是一个问号，但有一点是肯定的：通往总决赛的道路要经过俄克拉荷马城。
尤利乌斯·兰德尔又行了！（第100次）
尤利乌斯·兰德尔（Julius Randle）是联盟中最具双重人格的球员。
这位“可疑控球者”赛季初向斯通·汉兹·戈贝尔（Stone Hands Gobert）发射导弹，但不知何故成为了森林狼目前八连胜背后的驱动力。事实上，在因内收肌受伤缺阵之前，从一月底开始，只要兰德尔在场，明尼苏达就已经取得了13连胜。
导致森林狼比赛水平提高的最大因素是兰德尔的组织能力。自从他重返阵容以来，他场均助攻6.3次，而之前的数字是4.5次，很明显，明尼苏达更信任他的决策能力。
在下面的片段中，兰德尔在连续三次进攻中找到了空位球员，而且是在非常相似的战术下。在前两次进攻中，森林狼让他在禁区内低位进攻，兰德尔一旦夏洛特队进行协防，就会将球转移给贾登·麦克丹尼尔斯（Jaden McDaniels）。然后，明尼苏达队在转换进攻中将球交给兰德尔，他的下坡威胁使黄蜂队的防守崩溃，让他可以轻松地将球传回给空位的安特（Ant）。
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 15, 2025
这种战术之所以奏效，是因为兰德尔在低位的威力。在本赛季，他场均进行20次低位进攻，并且在这些进攻中得到1.09分，排名第72位。兰德尔对于前锋来说太强壮，对于中锋来说太快，这通常会导致这样的情况：
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 15, 2025
令人印象深刻的是，森林狼在每一个有兰德尔出场的重要阵容中都保持着正的净效率：明尼苏达队在兰德尔与安特和戈贝尔一起出场的情况下，以及兰德尔没有其中一位或两位球星的情况下，都战胜了对手。兰德尔和戈贝尔之间建立化学反应是森林狼最大的积极变化，因为球队在本赛季初几乎没有达到盈亏平衡，但现在他们两人同时在场时的净效率为+3.7。几个月来，明尼苏达一直在与两位数净效率的阵容磨合，而前者功能失调的组合现在已完全成为过去。
然而，一如既往的是，不可持续的三分球投篮命中率在森林狼近期的强势表现中发挥了作用。自从兰德尔回归以来的这八场连胜中，明尼苏达队在三分球命中率（42.4%）和对手三分球命中率（32.2%）上都排名第一。这帮助他们在这一时期获得了联盟第二好的进攻效率（124.9）和防守效率（108.5），你不需要詹姆斯·内斯密斯（James Nesmith）来解释为什么这样的表现是不可持续的。
不过，即使在这八场比赛之前，森林狼的进攻效率也排名第14位（115），防守效率排名第6位（111.5）。考虑到他们新建立的化学反应，我完全期望明尼苏达队在本赛季余下的时间里在攻防两端都排名前10——这是一个真正的竞争者的标志。我不会将他们与雷霆、波士顿或克利夫兰放在同一级别，但森林狼可以击败西部联盟中的任何其他球队。
本周，请阅读Jeje的文章，内容是达龙·福克斯（De’Aaron Fox）的赛季报销手术对马刺队意味着什么。看到另一位明星球员缺席本赛季余下的比赛令人难过，但这可能会在长期内为圣安东尼奥带来好处。
感谢阅读！
所有数据均来自 Cleaning the Glass 和 NBA Stats 。
点击查看原文：Around the NBA: OKC’s twin towers and the revitalized Wolves
Around the NBA: OKC’s twin towers and the revitalized Wolves
It’s time to analyze OKC’s double big lineup and the Wolves’ recent run.
The Thunder have missed arguably their second-best player for most of the year and are still on pace for 67 wins.
But hey, nobody should fear them because they haven’t won yet, and goofing around in post-game interviews is “alarming.”
Therapy sessions with Draymond aside, it’s naive to not believe that OKC is the overwhelming favorite in the West. Yes, they haven’t reached the finals with this group before, but all indications point to this being a historically good team that should only get better.
So, it’s time to analyze the Thunder’s twin towers lineup before discussing one of the West’s secondary contenders in Minnesota.
Double big lineups are so back!
Sam Presti is a wizard.
Somehow, even after finishing atop the West last year and turning OKC into the best-positioned team in NBA history, he still managed to make the best offseason signing in Isaiah Hartenstein.
And, because it’s the Thunder, the fit between iHart and Chet has been as smooth as can be. Defensively, the principle is quite simple: have Chet be a roamer and guard the perimeter if needed, while Hartenstein is assigned to the opposing center and acts as the primary rim protector. It’s not a novel concept, but one that’s become more popular recently due to the influx of skilled bigs who are dominating the league, especially against Nikola Jokic.
That exact strategy was utilized in OKC’s baseball series against Denver last week. In the clip below, Jokic isos in the paint against Hartenstein while all other players are stationed on the weak side. Even so, Chet has his attention on Big Chungus the entire time as he plays the roamer, and he sags off of a non-shooter in Aaron Gordon. Chet contests as soon as Jokic gets around Hartenstein, causing Jokic to miss an otherwise easy shot, but Gordon’s there to clean up the rebound.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 15, 2025
With the twin towers playing, it shouldn’t be surprising that the Thunder are holding opponents to shooting just 62% within four feet of the basket, good for the 90th percentile across all lineups in the league. What is eyebrow-raising, though, is their defensive rating of 114.3, which would rank 14th league-wide and is a far cry from their historic 107.4 figure as a whole.
Some of that is due to poor shooting luck, as opponents are making 38.6% (13th percentile defensively) of their threes. That’s largely out of the Thunder’s control and should regress, but what they can control is the number of threes that are conceded. Alarmingly, 43.7% of opponent shots against OKC are from deep (4th percentile), and 15.2% are from the corners (0 percentile).
In other words, with both bigs playing, the Thunder have been one of the worst defensive teams at limiting the number of threes their opponents take, especially from the most dangerous spot on the court. With that said, OKC also gives up an abundance of threes even without playing their two bigs. Overall, the Thunder still concede 40.7% of opponent shots from deep (20th percentile) and 12.2% from the corners (9th percentile), so there’s a much larger sample size of them being a historic defensive team even while deploying this unorthodox style.
Moreover, OKC can toggle their lineups according to their matchup, and that versatility is what makes this Thunder team so frightening. They can roll out the two bigs to go up against teams such as Denver, Minnesota, and a potential finals matchup against Cleveland/Boston, and if that doesn’t work, OKC can fall back on playing one big and go back to merely putting up checks note historic defensive numbers. Lastly, the Thunder’s big lineup will naturally improve defensively once they log more minutes together and the opponent shooting cools down, so apologies to anyone who thought they’d discovered a chink in OKC’s impenetrable armor.
Even more encouraging is that the Thunder have a mind-bending 127.2 offensive rating (99th percentile) when playing their twin towers, which means that they still have a +12.9 net rating even with a defense that will continue to improve.
The success of OKC’s attack is predicated on their ability to play 4-out around a skilled big in Hartenstein, who can handle and pass. Chet, in particular, is the key that unlocks this lineup. His 35.1% accuracy from downtown is by no means elite, but it forces the other team to respect him from the perimeter. His unique combination of size and agility allows him to shoot over smaller guards or blow by slower bigs, which creates more space for Hartenstein to operate.
In the first clip below, Jamal Murray is crossmatched in transition, forcing him to guard Chet. The latter’s shooting threat forces Murray to bite on his pump fake, and once Chet gets by Murray, it’s an easy alley-oop to Hartenstein in a two-on-one against Jokic. After that, Chet and Hartenstein improvise a two-man action that forces MPJ to switch on to a bigger Hartenstein, and that mismatch is created because Jokic is stretched out due to Chet’s gravity.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 16, 2025
Both bigs are also skilled enough to run pick and rolls. When the two ran a side action in their recent showdown against Boston, Luke Kornet was left a step behind Hartenstein, resulting in an easy bucket for the latter. Any set that gives iHart a good look from the paint is an efficient shot given that he’s making 51% (81st percentile) of his looks in the short mid (between 4-14 feet of the basket) and 71% (67th percentile) within 4 feet of the rim.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 16, 2025
Impressively, OKC’s two bigs offense seems largely sustainable. They’re making a pedestrian 36.1% from three (48th percentile) while only attempting 33.8% of their shots from deep (10th percentile), and the only area that might experience some regression is from the mid-range, as they’re making an impossible 60.2% (100th percentile) on those looks. Even so, this is one of the best mid-range teams in the league, so even if they regress to their usual standards, the Thunder will still maintain an ORTG in the 120s.
In short, arguably the best team in the league will only get better, as their twin towers continue to build chemistry. The rest of the West is still a question mark, but one thing is certain: the path to the final runs through OKC.
Julius Randle is good again! (For the 100th time)
Julius Randle is the most Jekyll and Hyde player in the league.
Dubious Handles started the season firing missiles at Stone Hands Gobert, but has somehow become the driving force behind the Wolves’ current eight-game winning streak. In fact, Minnesota has won 13 straight with Randle in the lineup going back to the end of January before his adductor injury.
The biggest factor that’s led to the Wolves’ improved play has been Randle’s playmaking. He’s averaging 6.3 assists per game since returning to the lineup when that number was 4.5 before, and it’s evident that Minnesota trusts his decision-making more.
In the clips below, Randle found the open man on three consecutive possessions, on very similar sets. On the first two plays, the Wolves posted him up in the paint, and Randle swung the rock to Jaden McDaniels as soon as Charlotte sent help. Then, Minnesota put the ball in Randle’s hands in transition, and his downhill threat collapsedd the Hornets’ defense, giving him an easy pass back to an open Ant.
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 15, 2025
The reason such plays work is because of Randle’s potency in the post. On the season, he’s averaging the 20th most post-ups per game while scoring 1.09 points on such plays, ranking in the 72nd percentile. Randle is too strong for forwards and too fast for centers, which often results in plays like this:
— Bill Huan (@ bill_huan) March 15, 2025
Impressively, the Wolves have a positive net rating in every important lineup featuring Randle: Minnesota has outscored teams with Randle playing with Ant and Gobert, and Randle without one or both of those stars, too. Randle and Gobert developing chemistry has been the biggest positive change for the Wolves, as the team was barely break even at the start of the season but now sits at a +3.7 net rating with them on. Minnesota has flirted with a double-digit net rating with those two on for a few months now, and the former dysfunctional fit is now fully a thing of the past.
As always, though, unsustainable three-point shooting has played a part in the Wolves’ recent run. During this eight-game winning streak since Randle’s returned, Minnesota is ranked first in both three-point percentage (42.4%) and opponent three-point percentage (32.2%). This has helped them rack up the league’s second-best offense (124.9) and defense (108.5) during that span, and you don’t need James Nesmith to explain why such a stretch is unsustainable.
Still, even before these eight games, the Wolves were 14th on offense (115) and 6th on defense (111.5). Given their newfound chemistry, I fully expect Minnesota to be top 10 on both ends of the floor for the rest of the season — the sign of a legitimate contender. I wouldn’t put them in the same tier as OKC, Boston, or Cleveland, but the Wolves can beat any other team in the Western Conference.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on what De’Aaron Fox’s season-ending surgery means for the Spurs. It sucks to see another star player miss the remainder of the year, but it could pay dividends for San Antonio in the long run.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
By Bill Huan, via Pounding The Rock